CN110907708A - Lightning early warning method - Google Patents
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- CN110907708A CN110907708A CN201911249342.6A CN201911249342A CN110907708A CN 110907708 A CN110907708 A CN 110907708A CN 201911249342 A CN201911249342 A CN 201911249342A CN 110907708 A CN110907708 A CN 110907708A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01R—MEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
- G01R29/00—Arrangements for measuring or indicating electric quantities not covered by groups G01R19/00 - G01R27/00
- G01R29/08—Measuring electromagnetic field characteristics
- G01R29/0807—Measuring electromagnetic field characteristics characterised by the application
- G01R29/0814—Field measurements related to measuring influence on or from apparatus, components or humans, e.g. in ESD, EMI, EMC, EMP testing, measuring radiation leakage; detecting presence of micro- or radiowave emitters; dosimetry; testing shielding; measurements related to lightning
- G01R29/0842—Measurements related to lightning, e.g. measuring electric disturbances, warning systems
Abstract
The invention discloses a lightning early warning method, which selects atmospheric field intensity, echo peak height and vertically accumulated liquid water content as early warning factors, and sets a threshold value for each early warning factor. And when all four early warning factors meet the threshold value, early warning of lightning occurrence is carried out, and if any one early warning factor does not meet the threshold value, no early warning of lightning occurrence is carried out. The invention obtains higher success early warning rate and lower false alarm rate, and improves the accuracy of thunder and lightning forecast.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a lightning early warning method, and belongs to the field of operation and maintenance of power transmission lines.
Background
With the increase of the voltage class of the power grid construction project in China to 1100kV, the operation safety of the power transmission line is more and more emphasized, and the weather conditions of the crossing region need to be specifically considered when the high-voltage class power transmission line is erected and operated. At present, the approach early warning of thunder in China is basically based on nonlinear extrapolation of live data and data observed by equipment such as a lightning locator, a weather radar, a meteorological satellite, a ground electric field instrument and the like, and early warning of the falling area, time and intensity of the thunder is made. Weather radar is one of the most effective means for monitoring strong convection weather, and meteorologists at home and abroad propose a plurality of lightning early warning methods based on the data, mainly analyzing echo physical quantity products corresponding to lightning data and extracting threshold parameters of lightning occurrence; the atmosphere electric field measuring instrument is a device for measuring the intensity of atmosphere electric field, and the method for carrying out thunder early warning by utilizing the atmosphere electric field measuring instrument mainly comprises the following steps: utilizing a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments to detect the atmospheric electric field on the ground to invert the charge distribution in the thunderstorm cloud, obtaining the strength, polarity and distribution of strong charge centers in the thunderstorm cloud, and carrying out early warning; setting a multi-level alarm threshold value for the detected ground atmospheric electric field value, and giving an alarm when the detected value exceeds the threshold value, wherein false report and missing report are often easily caused due to more factors influencing atmospheric electric field measurement and more obvious difference of measured values of different manufacturers; because the atmospheric electric field instrument is non-directional, the atmospheric electric field instrument can only measure the electric field distribution change at a short distance, the error of the atmospheric electric field instrument is large for a long distance, the false alarm rate of lightning early warning is high, and the specific position of lightning can not be determined. For example, in the Jiangsu area, the single early warning success rate is not high and the virtual report rate is high based on two early warning methods of a Doppler weather radar and an atmospheric electric field instrument, so that the local lightning early warning model needs to be optimized urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: the invention provides a lightning early warning method, which improves the success rate of lightning early warning.
The technical scheme is as follows: the technical scheme adopted by the invention is a lightning early warning method, which comprises the following steps:
selecting atmospheric field intensity, echo peak height and vertically accumulated liquid water content as early warning factors, and acquiring the early warning factor data;
when all four early warning factors meet a threshold value, early warning of lightning; and if any one early warning factor does not meet the threshold value, the lightning is not early warned.
And when the atmospheric field intensity is more than 1kV/m, the threshold value is met.
The threshold is met for echo intensities greater than 40 dBZ.
And when the echo peak height is more than 8.0km, the threshold value is met.
The vertically accumulated liquid water content is 5 kg-m-3～15kg·m-3The range satisfies a threshold.
A lightning early warning system, comprising:
the acquisition module acquires four early warning factor data of atmospheric field intensity, echo top height and vertically accumulated liquid water content;
the early warning module is internally provided with various early warning factor thresholds and judges whether all the early warning factors meet the thresholds or not; and if all the early warning factors meet the threshold value, early warning about lightning occurrence is carried out, and if any one early warning factor does not meet the threshold value, early warning about lightning occurrence is not carried out.
The early warning module has the atmospheric field intensity larger than 1kV/m, the echo intensity larger than 40dBZ and the echo top height larger than 8.0km andthe vertically accumulated liquid water content is 5 kg.m-3～15kg·m-3Early warning of lightning occurrence within the range; and if any one early warning factor does not meet the condition, the lightning is not early warned.
Has the advantages that: according to the invention, on the basis of observation data, each early warning factor threshold is optimized, so that higher successful early warning rate and lower false alarm rate are obtained, and the accuracy of lightning prediction is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the operation of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further illustrated by the following figures and specific examples, which are to be understood as illustrative only and not as limiting the scope of the invention, which is to be given the full breadth of the appended claims and any and all equivalent modifications thereof which may occur to those skilled in the art upon reading the present specification.
The success early warning rate (POD), the early warning False Alarm Rate (FAR), and the Critical Success Index (CSI) used in this embodiment are defined as shown in table 1:
table 1 data definition table
Success early warning rate (POD) represents the percentage of success of lightning early warning in live observation, the value of the success early warning rate is between 0 and 1, and the larger the value is, the closer the success early warning is, the definition is as follows:
the early warning False Alarm Rate (FAR) represents the percentage of false alarm in lightning early warning, the value of the FAR is between 0 and 1, the smaller the numerical value is, the closer to the successful early warning is, the definition is as follows:
the Critical Success Index (CSI) represents the percentage of correct early warning in the whole lightning early warning event (including correct early warning, false early warning and missed early warning), and the value thereof is between 0 and 1, and the larger the value is, the closer the value is to the successful early warning, defined as:
the concept of early warning advance time T is introduced, which is defined as the time interval between the time when the radar echo appears the early warning index and the first flash occurrence time.
As shown in fig. 1, firstly, effective lightning data sources (taking data of Jiangsu regions as an example) including atmospheric field intensity, echo top height (ET) and vertical accumulated liquid water content (VIL) are extracted through meteorological observation. Although the atmospheric field strength is determined first, and then the echo intensity, the echo top height and the vertically accumulated liquid water content are determined in sequence in fig. 1, in practice, the four indexes are logically and-related.
Atmospheric field strength, i.e., atmospheric electric field magnitude. The atmospheric electric field is an electric field existing in the atmosphere, and since the ground is negatively charged and the atmosphere contains net positive charges, an electric field always exists in the atmosphere. The atmospheric electric field is directed toward the ground and its intensity, i.e., atmospheric field strength, varies with time, place, weather, and altitude. The existing large amount of meteorological observation data show that the early warning rate is higher when the atmospheric field strength of the Jiangsu area reaches 1kV/m, the early warning virtual report rate is extremely low, and the early warning effect is best when various data are integrated for 1 kV/m. Therefore, 1kV/m is selected as the threshold of the atmospheric field intensity, and the thunderstorm success early warning rate under the threshold reaches 0.89 by combining with data of meteorological stations in Jiangsu areas, and the false alarm rate is only 0.15.
The echo intensity refers to the weather radar echo power. The echo intensity depends on the scattering properties of the precipitation, the distance of the scatterer to the radar and the attenuation of the beam by the atmospheric medium in the propagation path. The nature of the weather system can be inferred from the echo intensities of the weather targets and their distribution. Table 2 shows the early warning success rate and the false alarm rate corresponding to three different echo intensities and isothermal height layers in a typical thunderstorm weather of 9 months in 2017. The threshold was selected from Table 2 as the echo intensity of 40dBZ and the isothermal height layer temperature of-10 ℃. Under the threshold value, the data of the meteorological station in Jiangsu areas are combined, so that the success rate of the single thunderstorm early warning is up to 0.94, and the false report rate is only 0.13.
TABLE 2
The echo peak height is the maximum height that can be reached by the particles in the precipitation cloud detected by the radar. The echo peak height is the reaction of the strength of ascending airflow in the descending cloud and is closely related to the atmospheric stability. Convection clouds with radar echo peaks exceeding 14km (penetration) can affect the transport of water vapor between the troposphere and the stratosphere, and thus affect the stratosphere radiant energy balance. In addition, the ground surface rainfall intensity and the radar echo top height are closely related, and generally, the larger the ground surface rainfall intensity is, the higher the radar echo top height is, and the deeper the rainfall cloud is; the frequency of lightning increases exponentially with the height of the radar echo peak. As can be seen from Table 3, 8.0km is selected as the most appropriate early warning threshold value of the echo peak height, and the early warning success rate of the thunderstorm monomer is high. And combining with data of meteorological stations in Jiangsu areas, the threshold value independently achieves 0.93 of early warning success rate (POD) to thunderstorms, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) is 0.06, and the Critical Success Index (CSI) is 0.88, as shown in Table 4.
TABLE 3
| ET/km | 0-1.9 | 2.0-3.9 | 4.0-5.9 | 6.0-7.9 | 8.0-9.9 | 10.0-11.9 | 12.0-13.9 |
| Thunderstorm monomer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 47 | 7 |
| Non-thunderstorm monomer | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
TABLE 4
| ET/km | POD | FAR | CSI | T/min |
| 8.0 | 0.93 | 0.06 | 0.88 | 11 |
The vertical accumulated liquid water content is an effective tool for distinguishing the potential of precipitation, and reflects the total amount of liquid water in a certain vertical column with a certain bottom area in a precipitation cloud. The vertical accumulated liquid water content is the result of processing the volume scanning data of the radar. According to the observation data in Table 5, the vertically accumulated liquid water content of 5 kg.m was selected-3～15kg·m-3As a threshold space, the early warning success rate of the thunderstorm body is highest. In this interval, the success rate of the individual early warning of the thunderstorm reaches 0.88, the false alarm rate is 0.23, and the specific early warning result is shown in table 6.
TABLE 5
| VIL/(kg·m-3) | 0-4.9 | 5.0-9.9 | 10.0-14.9 | 15.0-19.9 | 20.0-24.9 | 25.0-29.9 | 30.0-34.9 |
| Thunderstorm body | 1 | 28 | 72 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Non-thunderstorm body | 26 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
TABLE 6
| VIL/(kg·m-3) | POD | FAR | CSI | T/min |
| 5-15 | 0.88 | 0.23 | 0.79 | 7 |
In the embodiment, the quantified values of atmospheric field intensity, echo top height and vertically accumulated liquid water content are used as early warning factors, wherein the atmospheric field intensity early warning factor is QVEFEcho intensity early warning factor QVDBZEcho peak height early warning factor QVETAnd vertical accumulated liquid water content early warning factor QVVIL。
Meanwhile, the embodiment also takes the lightning occurrence as a forecast volume event Y for the first time, and the relationship between the four early warning factors and the forecast volume event Y is a logic and relationship. As shown in fig. 1, as long as there is an early warning factor that does not reach the threshold, the lightning early warning is finished at this time; and only if all the four early warning factors reach the early warning factor threshold value, judging the occurrence of the thunder.
Claims (7)
1. A lightning early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
selecting atmospheric field intensity, echo peak height and vertically accumulated liquid water content as early warning factors, and acquiring the early warning factor data;
when all four early warning factors meet a threshold value, early warning of lightning; and if any one early warning factor does not meet the threshold value, the lightning is not early warned.
2. The lightning early warning method of claim 1, wherein the threshold is met when the atmospheric field strength is greater than 1 kV/m.
3. The lightning early warning method of claim 2, wherein the threshold is met when the echo strength is greater than 40 dBZ.
4. The lightning early warning method of claim 3, wherein the threshold is met when the echo peak height is greater than 8.0 km.
5. The lightning warning method of claim 4, wherein the vertically accumulated liquid water content is 5 kg-m-3～15kg·m-3The range satisfies a threshold.
6. A lightning early warning system, comprising:
the acquisition module acquires four early warning factor data of atmospheric field intensity, echo top height and vertically accumulated liquid water content;
the early warning module is internally provided with various early warning factor thresholds and judges whether all the early warning factors meet the thresholds or not; and if all the early warning factors meet the threshold value, early warning about lightning occurrence is carried out, and if any one early warning factor does not meet the threshold value, early warning about lightning occurrence is not carried out.
7. The lightning early warning system of claim 6, wherein the early warning module has an atmospheric field strength greater than 1kV/m, an echo strength greater than 40dBZ, an echo top height greater than 8.0km, and a vertically accumulated liquid water content of 5 kg-m-3～15kg·m-3Early warning of lightning occurrence within the range; and if any one early warning factor does not meet the condition, the lightning is not early warned.
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Cited By (4)
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| CN113219259A (en) * | 2021-04-26 | 2021-08-06 | 吉林省气候中心 | Lightning early warning method, device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN113447724A (en) * | 2021-03-09 | 2021-09-28 | 中国气象科学研究院 | Lightning activity judging method and system |
| CN113466570A (en) * | 2021-07-26 | 2021-10-01 | 厦门大恒科技有限公司 | Lightning early warning method and lightning early warning device |
| CN117349692A (en) * | 2023-12-04 | 2024-01-05 | 国网江西省电力有限公司南昌供电分公司 | Distribution line lightning early warning method integrating multiple lightning early warning factors |
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| CN117349692A (en) * | 2023-12-04 | 2024-01-05 | 国网江西省电力有限公司南昌供电分公司 | Distribution line lightning early warning method integrating multiple lightning early warning factors |
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