CN110895786A - Processing method for water right transaction in CGE model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a processing method of water right transaction in a CGE model, which comprises the following steps: s1, adding water resources as a factor into the total added value function equation, and allowing the water commodity and capital, labor force and other factors to be replaced; s2, judging whether the water consumption of the enterprises is within the water right according to the initial water right distribution amount determined by each enterprise; s3, calculating and analyzing the water saving cost of the enterprise, comparing the water saving cost with the water right transaction income/cost, and making a decision of saving water or selling/purchasing the water right; and S4, adding the water right cost of water saving or water right selling income/purchase of the enterprise into the production cost function of the enterprise, and adding the water right trading module. The invention analyzes the effect and influence of the water right transaction on the production and economic development of the enterprise based on the initial water right distribution amount and the water demand of the enterprise, simulates how the enterprise makes decisions and how water commodities flow and distribute in various industries of an economic system under the water right transaction, and realizes the reasonable allocation of water resources with optimal economic benefits.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a water right transaction and management technology module, in particular to a processing method of water right transaction in a CGE model.
Background
The contradiction between water resource supply and demand is increasingly prominent due to uneven space-time distribution, large population and economic development pressure in China, and the problem of water resources also becomes the most prominent major problem in the development of the economic society. The method strengthens the decisive role of the market in water resource allocation, and the two main means are a water price mechanism and a water right allocation and transaction mechanism. According to the water law of China, all the rights of water resources belong to the country, but the ownership, the operation right, the income right and the division right can be relatively separated. The construction of the water right trading system is an effective way and method under the economic condition of socialist market for solving the shortage of water resources and optimizing the configuration. From the market perspective, the water right trade is to sell water, buy and sell water, promote and promote the water resource optimization configuration by economic leverage. At present, water right transaction test points are developed in Ningxia autonomous regions, Jiangxi provinces, Hubei provinces and the like, and water right transactions in various forms among industries and between households, upstream and downstream of drainage basins and the like are developed. At present, the research on water resource allocation effect of the water right trading system in China is basically in the stage of qualitative analysis, deep macroscopic and microscopic economic and social impact quantitative analysis technology of water resource allocation effect is lacked, and the competent departments are lacked with quantitative decision basis.
The CGE model is derived from the general equilibrium theory of Wallas, focuses on how the price, the 'invisible hand', affects the demand, supply and supply-demand relations between various production elements and commodities in an economic system, and expresses the 'invisible hand' idea by a set of equations. The variables in the system of equations comprise quantity variables of the commodity and the production elements and all price variables of commodity and element prices, capital return rates, transportation costs and the like, and particularly describe the optimization behavior of the economic subject. CGE is widely used in policy analysis of problems such as economic growth, macrostructure adjustment, resource demand, energy environment, etc., and is gradually becoming one of the mainstream tools of policy analysis, but it is rarely used in the water right trading field. In an original CGE model, a water production and supply industry is used as a production industry, substitution relations between various factors and water resources are not considered, the water resources are not right-assured, a water right transaction mechanism cannot be described, and the requirements of water right transaction and management in China in a new period are difficult to adapt to; the influence of different policies related to the water right on enterprise production, industry development and development, water demand, water conservation, water utilization efficiency improvement, water price and the like under the water right trade can be further simulated.
Fig. 3 is a production structure diagram of a raw water resource CGE model, the final composite product of the elements is called an added value, the intermediate input products of each industry are finally combined into a total input, and the total input + added value is the total output. The patent document "an improved method for refining water modules in CGE model" with publication number CN 108596491A mainly improves the right total investment in FIG. 4, but basically does not substantially improve the left added value part in FIG. 4, and is similar to the production structure of raw water source CGE model.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a processing method of water right transaction in a CGE model, and solves the problems that the water right transaction and management are difficult to depict and adapt to social needs.
The technical scheme for solving the technical problems is as follows: a processing method of water right transaction in a CGE model comprises the following steps.
S1, adding water resources as a production element into the element composite total added value, and adopting a multilayer nesting mode and applying a CES function to realize the mutual substitution of the water commodity and the elements such as capital, labor and land in order to show that the mutual substitution elasticity of the water commodity and the elements such as capital, labor and land is different;
s11, first, carrying out replacement of capital and water commodities according to the calculation formula
In the formula:
refers to the amount of capital and water commodity composite used in the manufacturing process by the jth industry;
refers to the number of capital, water commodities used in the manufacturing process by the jth industry;
refers to the technology advancement parameters (exogenous given, i.e., known values) of the jth industry using capital, water commodity in the production process;
refers to share parameters of capital and water commodity used in the production process of the jth industry (extra-model calculation);
the j' th industry uses the common surrogate elastic coefficients of capital and water commodities in the production process (off-model calculations).
In the equation system of the CGE model, X represents a quantity variable, A represents a technical progress variable, b represents a share parameter variable, rho represents an elastic coefficient, and the variable interpretations of the equations (1-3) are similar.
S12, replacing the capital-water commodity composite product with the land, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula:
refers to the combination of capital-water commodity compound product and land used in the production process of the jth industryThe number of the products;
the number of land used in the production process of the jth industry is referred to;
refers to the technology advancement parameters (exogenous given, i.e., known value) of the j th industry using capital-water commodity composites, land in the production process;
refers to share parameters (extra-model calculation) of capital-water commodity composite and land used in the production process of the jth industry;
the j-th industry uses the common surrogate elastic coefficients of capital-water commodity composites with the land during production (off-model calculations).
S13 the method replaces the labor force and capital land water commodity composite product by the calculation formula
In the formula:
the number of the three-element composite products used in the production process of the jth industry is indicated;
refers to the amount of labor used in the production process by the jth industry;
the technical progress parameters (given by exogenous production and known) of the labor force of the jth industry using the three-element composite product in the equation 2 in the production process are referred to;
the j industry uses the three-element composite product in the equation 2 and the share parameter of the labor force in the production process (calculation outside a model);
the j-th industry uses the common alternative elastic coefficients of the three element composites in equation 2 with labor in the production process (off-model calculation).
S2, judging whether the water consumption of the enterprises is within the initial water weight distribution according to the initial water weight distribution amount determined by each enterprise;
the equation is as follows:
the water consumption of the enterprise is within the initial water distribution amount: wd≤Qi(4)；
The water consumption of the enterprise exceeds the initial water distribution amount: wd＞Qi(5)；
In the formula: wdThe water demand of an enterprise; qiRefers to the initial water weight distribution (given exogenous, known);
s3, calculating and analyzing the water saving cost of the enterprise, comparing the water saving cost with the water right transaction income/cost, and making a decision of saving water or selling/purchasing the water right;
the equation is as follows:
in the formula: c. CqwWater saving cost (model calculation result) when the finger water saving amount is qw; s, saving water quantity; qqWater right sales; qgThe number of water right purchases; ptRefers to the water right trade price (exogenous given, i.e., known value).
Decision represented by equation (5): when the corresponding water resource demand exceeds the initial water right distribution quantity and when the water saving quantity exceeds qw, the water saving cost is more than the water right transaction income, and enterprises choose not to perform water saving and water right transaction. When the water saving amount is over the water saving amount and the water saving cost is over qw, the water saving cost is lower than the water right transaction income, enterprises select to save water, the surplus water is sold, and the water right transaction is carried out.
Decision represented by equation (6): when the corresponding water resource demand exceeds the initial water right distribution quantity and when the water saving quantity exceeds qw, the water saving cost is greater than the water right purchase cost, and enterprises choose not to save water and purchase the water right. When the water saving amount is exceeded and the water saving cost is lower than the water right transaction income by qw, the enterprise selects to save water, if the water resource demand after water saving is within the initial level distribution range, the enterprise does not perform the water right transaction, and if the water resource demand after water saving still exceeds the initial level distribution amount, the enterprise selects to save water, and performs the water right transaction and purchases water commodities.
And S4, adding the water right cost of water saving or water right selling income/purchase of the enterprise into the production cost function of the enterprise, and adding the water right trading module.
The water right transaction will directly affect the production cost of the enterprise, and the equation is as follows:
water right purchasing enterprises: ci＝Cfac，i+Ccom，i+Cqw，i+Qg，i×Pt
(8)
Water rights selling enterprises: ci＝Cfac，i+Ccom，i+Cqw，i-Qq，i×Pt
(9)
In the formula: ciThe ith enterprise total production cost; cfac，iThe total cost of the production and use elements of the ith enterprise is referred to; ccom，iThe total cost of the intermediate input products for the ith enterprise production and use is referred to; cqw，iThe total water-saving cost (model calculation) when the ith enterprise saves the water quantity qw; qg，i、Qq，iThe quantity of the water right purchased and sold by the ith enterprise; ptRefers to the water right trade price (given by the exogenous source, known).
Further, the final water consumption of the enterprise is water demand-water saving quantity +/-water right trading quantity, and an equation is as follows;
Wu＝Wd-S±Qq(10)；
in the formula: wuThe final water demand of an enterprise; the other variables are as above.
Further, the total amount of water resource usage after the water right transaction is less than the initial water right distribution total amount, and the equation is as follows:
in the formula:
refers to the total water usage of all enterprises;
refers to the initial water allocation (given by the exogenous, known) for all enterprises.
Steps S2-S4 depict the water right transaction mechanism and process, i.e., the water right transaction module is added.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: in the invention, a water right transaction mechanism and influencing factors are fully considered, and a water right transaction module is added on the basis of a CGE model core module, and the water right transaction module comprises the following steps: judging whether the water consumption of the enterprises is within the initial water right distribution or not according to the initial water right distribution quantity determined by each enterprise; calculating and analyzing the water-saving cost of an enterprise, comparing the water-saving cost with the water right transaction income/cost, and making a decision of saving water or selling/purchasing the water right; and (4) bringing the water saving or water right selling income/water right purchasing cost of the enterprise into the production cost function of the enterprise. Based on the initial water right distribution amount and the water demand of the enterprise, the effects and influences of water right transactions on enterprise production and economic development are analyzed, and how the enterprise makes decisions and how water commodities flow and distribute in various industries of an economic system under the condition of simulating the water right transactions is realized, so that the reasonable allocation of water resources with optimal economic benefits is realized.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart in an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a diagram of the relationship between water saving cost and water saving amount in the embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a production module structure in a raw water source CGE model.
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an improved production module in the embodiment of the invention.
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of a water right transaction mechanism in an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The principles and features of this invention are described below in conjunction with the following drawings, which are set forth by way of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
As shown in FIG. 1, a method for processing water right transactions in a CGE model includes the following steps S1-S4.
And S1, adding water resources as a production element into the total added value of element composition (shown in the left end of figure 4), and applying a CES function to realize mutual substitution of the water commodity with the elements such as capital, labor and land (allowing the water commodity to be substituted with the elements such as capital and labor) in a multilayer nested mode in order to show that mutual substitution elasticity of the water commodity with the elements such as capital, labor and land is different. The added value of the element means that the capital, land and labor force are compounded into a total element through a CES function, namely the added value, and the total input plus the added value is the total output. This embodiment is mainly embodied by improving the left side of fig. 4, i.e., the total added value portion.
The step S1 specifically includes S11-S13 as follows.
S11, first, carrying out replacement of capital and water commodities according to the calculation formula
In the formula:
refers to the amount of capital and water composite used in the manufacturing process by the j' th industry;
refers to the amount of capital, water commodity used in the manufacturing process by the j' th industry;
refers to the technology advancement parameters (exogenously given, known) of the jth industry using capital, water commodities in the production process;
refers to share parameters of capital and water commodity used in the production process of the jth industry (extra-model calculation);
the j' th industry uses the common surrogate elastic coefficients of capital and water commodities in the production process (off-model calculations).
S12 replacing capital water composite products with land by the calculation formula
In the formula:
refers to the combined amount of capital water composite and land used in the manufacturing process by the jth industry;
refers to the amount of land used in the j industry during the production process;
refers to the fact that the jth industry uses capital water compounding in the production processTechnical progress parameters of the product and the land (exogenous given and known);
refers to the share parameter of capital water composite and land used in the production process of the jth industry (extra-model calculation);
the j-th industry uses the common surrogate elastic coefficient of capital water composite with the land during production (off-model calculations).
S13 the method replaces the compound product of labor force and capital land water by the calculation formula
In the formula:
the quantity of the four-element composite product used in the production process of the jth industry is indicated;
refers to the amount of labor used in the manufacturing process by the jth industry;
the technical progress parameters (given by exogenous production and known) of the labor force of the jth industry using the three-element composite product in the equation 2 in the production process are referred to;
the j industry uses the three-element composite product in the equation 2 and the share parameter of the labor force in the production process (calculation outside a model);
the j-th industry uses the common alternative elastic coefficients of the three element composites in equation 2 with labor in the production process (off-model calculation).
The water right transaction mechanism of this embodiment is shown in fig. 5 and is implemented by the following method.
S2, judging whether the water consumption of the enterprises is within the initial water weight distribution amount according to the initial water weight distribution amount determined by each enterprise, wherein the equation is as follows:
the water consumption of the enterprise is within the initial water distribution amount: wd≤Qi(4)；
The water consumption of the enterprise exceeds the initial water distribution amount: wd＞Qi(5)；
In the formula: wdThe water demand of an enterprise; qiRefers to the initial water weight distribution (given exogenous, known);
s3, calculating and analyzing the water saving cost of the enterprise, comparing the water saving cost with the water right transaction income/cost, and making a decision of saving water or selling/purchasing the water right, wherein the equation is as follows:
in the formula: cqwWater saving cost when the finger water saving amount is qw; s, saving water quantity; qqWater right sales; qgThe number of water right purchases; pqRefers to the water right trade price (given by the exogenous source, known).
Decision represented by equation (5): when the corresponding water resource demand exceeds the initial water right distribution quantity and when the water saving quantity exceeds qw, the water saving cost is more than the water right transaction income, and enterprises choose not to perform water saving and water right transaction. When the water saving amount is over the water saving amount and the water saving cost is over qw, the water saving cost is lower than the water right transaction income, enterprises select to save water, the surplus water is sold, and the water right transaction is carried out. The cost curve diagram of the CGE model simulation of the enterprise water saving cost is calculated as shown in FIG. 2.
Decision represented by equation (6): when the corresponding water resource demand exceeds the initial water right distribution quantity and when the water saving quantity exceeds qw, the water saving cost is greater than the water right purchase cost, and enterprises choose not to save water and purchase the water right. When the water saving amount is exceeded and the water saving cost is lower than the water right transaction income by qw, the enterprise selects to save water, if the water resource demand after water saving is within the initial level distribution range, the enterprise does not perform the water right transaction, and if the water resource demand after water saving still exceeds the initial level distribution amount, the enterprise selects to save water, and performs the water right transaction and purchases water commodities.
And S4, bringing the water saving or water right selling income/water right purchasing cost of the enterprise into a production cost function of the enterprise.
The water right transaction will directly affect the production cost of the enterprise, and the equation is as follows:
water right purchasing enterprises: ci＝Cfac，i+Ccom，i+Cqw，i+Qg，i×Pt
(8)；
Water rights selling enterprises: ci＝Cfac，i+Ccom，i+Cqw，i-Qq，i×Pt
(9)；
In the formula: ciThe ith enterprise total production cost; cfac，iThe total cost of the production and use elements of the ith enterprise is referred to; ccom，iThe total cost of the intermediate input products for the ith enterprise production and use is referred to; cqw，iThe total water-saving cost of the ith enterprise when saving the water quantity qw; qg，i、Qq，iThe quantity of the water right purchased and sold by the ith enterprise; ptRefers to the water right trade price (given by the exogenous source, known).
In the embodiment of the invention, based on a general equilibrium theory, a water right transaction mechanism and influence factors are considered, model codes are modified, a water right transaction module is added, a model database is established, parameter calibration and model inspection are carried out through a metrological economics method and a calibration method, sensitivity analysis is carried out on model parameters, and the influence of water right transaction amount, water right transaction price and other water right related policy implementation on enterprise production, economic development and water supply is quantitatively analyzed.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.
Claims (3)
1. A processing method for water right transaction in a CGE model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, adding water resources as a production element into the element composite total added value, and adopting a multilayer nesting mode and applying a CES function to realize mutual substitution of the water commodity and the elements such as capital, labor and land in order to show that the mutual substitution elasticity of the water commodity and the elements such as capital, labor and land is different;
s11, first, carrying out replacement of capital and water commodities according to the calculation formula
In the formula:
refers to the amount of capital and water commodity composite used in the manufacturing process by the jth industry;
refers to the number of capital, water commodities used in the manufacturing process by the jth industry;
refers to the technology advancement parameters of the jth industry using capital, water commodity in the production process;
refers to the share parameter of capital, water commodity used in the j industry during production;
the j-th industry uses capital and water commodity in the production processA surrogate elastic coefficient;
s12, replacing the capital-water commodity composite product with the land, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula:
refers to the number of capital-water commodity composites and land used in the manufacturing process by the jth industry;
the number of land used in the production process of the jth industry is referred to;
refers to the technical progress parameters of capital-water commodity compound and land used in the production process of the jth industry;
refers to the share parameter of capital-water commodity composite and land used in the production process of the jth industry;
the j-th industry uses the constant substitute modulus of elasticity of capital-water commodity composites with the land during production;
s13 the method replaces the labor force and capital land water commodity composite product by the calculation formula
In the formula:
refers to that the j industry uses the three elements in the production processThe number of the particles;
refers to the amount of labor used in the production process by the jth industry;
the technical progress parameters of the labor force and the three-type element composite products in the equation (2) are used in the production process of the jth industry;
the share parameter of the third type of element composite products and the labor force in the equation (2) is used in the production process of the jth industry;
the j industry uses the constant alternative elastic coefficient of the three-element composite product in the equation (2) and labor force in the production process;
s2, judging whether the water consumption of the enterprises is within the initial water weight distribution according to the initial water weight distribution amount determined by each enterprise;
the equation is as follows:
the water consumption of the enterprise is within the initial water distribution amount: wd≤Qi(4)；
The water consumption of the enterprise exceeds the initial water distribution amount: wd＞Qi(5)；
In the formula: wdThe water demand of an enterprise; qiInitial water distribution amount;
s3, calculating and analyzing the water saving cost of the enterprise, comparing the water saving cost with the water right transaction income/cost, and making a decision of saving water or selling/purchasing the water right;
the equation is as follows:
in the formula: cq wWater saving cost when the water saving amount is q w; s, saving water quantity; qqWater right sales; qgThe number of water right purchases; ptThe water right transaction price is indicated;
the decision represented by equation (5): when the corresponding water resource demand exceeds the initial water right distribution quantity and when the water saving quantity exceeds qw, the water saving cost is more than the water right transaction income, and enterprises choose not to perform water saving and water right transaction; when the water saving amount is over the water saving amount and the water saving cost is lower than the water right trading income, enterprises select to save water, the surplus water is sold, and the water right trading is carried out;
the decision represented by equation (6): when the corresponding water resource demand exceeds the initial water right distribution quantity and the water saving quantity exceeds qw, the water saving cost is greater than the water right purchase cost, and enterprises choose not to save water and purchase the water right; when the water saving amount is exceeded and the water saving cost is lower than the water right transaction income by qw, the enterprise selects to save water, if the water resource demand after water saving is within the initial level distribution range, the enterprise does not perform the water right transaction, and if the water resource demand after water saving still exceeds the initial level distribution amount, the enterprise selects to save water, and performs the water right transaction to purchase water commodities;
s4, bringing the water-saving or water right selling income/water right purchasing cost of the enterprise into the production cost function of the enterprise, and adding a water right transaction module;
the water right transaction will directly affect the production cost of the enterprise, and the equation is as follows:
water right purchasing enterprises: ci＝Cfac，i+Ccom，i+Cqw，i+Qg，i×Pt(8)；
Water rights selling enterprises: ci＝Cfac，i+Ccom，i+Cqw，i-Qq，i×Pt(9)；
In the formula: ciRefer to the ithThe total production cost of an enterprise; cfac，iThe total cost of the production and use elements of the ith enterprise is referred to; ccom，iThe total cost of the intermediate input products for the ith enterprise production and use is referred to; cqw，iThe total cost of water saving when the ith enterprise saves the water amount q w; qg，i、Qq，iThe quantity of the water right purchased and sold by the ith enterprise; ptRefers to the water right transaction price.
2. The method for processing water right transaction in CGE model according to claim 1, wherein the final water consumption of the enterprise is water demand-water conservation amount +/-water right transaction amount, and the equation is as follows;
Wu＝Wd-S±Qq(10)
in the formula: wuRefers to the final water demand of the enterprise.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the total amount of water usage after water rights trading is less than the initial total amount of water rights allocation, and the following equation:
in the formula:
refers to the total water usage of all enterprises;
refers to the initial water allocation of all enterprises.
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| CN113177731A (en) * | 2021-05-20 | 2021-07-27 | 中山大学 | Water resource decision management system based on intelligent contracts |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN113177731A (en) * | 2021-05-20 | 2021-07-27 | 中山大学 | Water resource decision management system based on intelligent contracts |
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