CN110866694A - Power grid construction project financial evaluation system and method - Google Patents
Power grid construction project financial evaluation system and method Download PDFInfo
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- CN110866694A CN110866694A CN201911112442.4A CN201911112442A CN110866694A CN 110866694 A CN110866694 A CN 110866694A CN 201911112442 A CN201911112442 A CN 201911112442A CN 110866694 A CN110866694 A CN 110866694A
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- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power grid construction project financial evaluation system and a method thereof. The invention applies the analytic hierarchy process to the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project, establishes a multilevel power grid construction project financial evaluation index system, simultaneously determines the weight of each index by using a 3-scale analytic hierarchy process, and calculates the comprehensive score through a linear comprehensive scoring model, thereby objectively providing the financial evaluation result. The power grid construction project financial evaluation based on the analytic hierarchy process can effectively evaluate the power grid construction project financial, well realize the financial evaluation grade analysis, give power grid construction project financial reference suggestions aiming at different grades, and has certain guiding significance for the decision of the power grid construction project.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid financial management, in particular to a power grid construction project financial evaluation system and a power grid construction project financial evaluation method.
Background
With the rapid development of domestic economy and the advance strategy of electric power, the development of the power grid across regions, exaggerating industries and diversification brings huge vitality to the development of the power grid. But at the same time, the complex financial environment also increases the difficulty of the financial management of the power grid enterprise. For example, the power grid management hierarchy is continuously extended, business diversification is developed and expanded, and personnel quality is uneven, so that financial management faces business data dispersion, the information transfer speed is low, the accounting report hierarchy is multiple, the data quality is difficult to guarantee, and financial information sharing is difficult. The project financial evaluation is used as a key basis for project decision, and the evaluation result has a great influence on the project decision. The power grid construction project, as one of the key points of national infrastructure construction, has the characteristics of large investment scale, long construction period, poor investment substitution and the like, and if the decision is wrong, the loss is difficult to estimate, which requires that the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project is more strict.
In recent years, relevant domestic scholars make a great deal of research on financial evaluation theory, evaluation modeling, evaluation system and other aspects, and provide series achievements of power grid planning, project early stage, project admission, project post-evaluation of financial evaluation of each stage and the like, but need to be further improved in the aspects of theory and practical application.
Therefore, it is desirable to provide a power grid construction project financial evaluation system and a method thereof to solve the above problems.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a power grid construction project financial evaluation system and a power grid construction project financial evaluation method.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a power grid construction project financial evaluation system comprising:
the index system construction module is used for analyzing the influence factors of the power grid construction and constructing a power grid construction evaluation index system;
the index weight determining module is used for determining the subjective weight or the objective weight of each evaluation index in the power grid construction evaluation index system;
the comprehensive scoring module calculates the financial evaluation results of the power grid construction project layer by layer based on a linear comprehensive scoring model to obtain comprehensive scoring;
and the grading module grades the evaluation grades according to the comprehensive evaluation of the financial evaluation of the power grid infrastructure project. As a further improvement of the system, the index system building module carries out the building process of the index system as follows: the power grid construction project financial evaluation index system based on the analytic hierarchy process is combined with the characteristics of the power grid construction project to construct a power grid construction project financial evaluation index.
As a further improvement of the system, the financial evaluation indexes of the power grid construction project comprise three levels, namely a target level, a criterion level and an index level.
As a further improvement of the system, the target layer is the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project; the criteria layer comprises profitability, debt capability, and uncertainty; the index layer comprises 15 indexes which are respectively as follows: internal rate of return, net present value rate, net annual value, return on investment, total rate of return on investment, net profit rate on capital funds, interest making up rate, repayment rate, equity rate, cash flow rate, overdrive rate, liability cash flow rate, profit-loss balance analysis and sensitivity analysis;
7 indexes of the internal rate of return, net present value, net annual value, investment recovery period, total investment rate of return and net profit rate of capital fund are corresponding to the profitability evaluation;
6 indexes of interest spare payment rate, debt spare payment rate, asset liability rate, cash flow rate, overspeed dynamic rate and liability cash flow rate correspond to evaluation of debt paying capability;
the 2 indexes of the profit-loss balance analysis and the sensitivity analysis are corresponding to uncertainty analysis.
As a further improvement of the system, the process of the index weight determination module for determining the index weight is as follows: according to the index system construction result, a multilevel structure constructed based on the power grid construction project financial evaluation of the analytic hierarchy process is 3 levels of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, the multilevel structure comprises 3 first-level indexes and 15 second-level indexes, and the indexes of the same level are compared pairwise by adopting 3 scales.
As a further improvement of the system, the method for determining the profitability index weight comprises the following steps: comparing the 7 secondary indexes item by item, and comparing the importance degree of each index relative to the other 6 indexes, wherein the importance degree is divided into important degree and unimportant degree; each index is set to 1, the index which is important relative to the index is set to 2, and the index which is unimportant relative to the index is set to 0, so that the vector of each index is obtained, and further, the judgment matrix B of the secondary index of the profitability is obtainedX；
The repayment ability index weight determination method and the uncertainty analysis weight determination method are similar to the profitability index weight determination method.
As a further improvement of the system, taking profitability as an example, 7 secondary indexes are compared item by item, the importance degrees of the internal profitability relative to net present value, net annual value, investment recovery period, total investment profitability and net profit margin of the capital fund are important, important and unimportant respectively, and the internal profitability vector is obtained as [ 1222220 ], and by analogy, the judgment matrix B of the secondary indexes of the profitability is obtained as follows:
calculating corresponding maximum eigenvalue and eigenvector according to the judgment matrix, wherein the eigenvector obtained after normalization processing is the weight of each index, and the consistency judgment matrix of the secondary index of the profitability is as follows:
after consistency check, the weight of each index of the profitability is obtained:
WX＝[0.233 0 0.112 0 0.0.7 3 0.053 8 0.093 3 0.134 5 0.336 1]。
as a further improvement of the system, the method is similar to the calculation method of the weights of all indexes of the profitability, and the corresponding weights of the repayment ability and the uncertainty secondary indexes are calculated:
WY＝[0.103 5 0.179 3 0.136 2 0.310 5 0.034 5 0.236 0]
WZ＝[0.500 0 0.500 0]
in the criterion layer, the weights of profitability, repayment ability and uncertainty are as follows:
W＝[0.692 3 0.230 8 0.076 9]。
as a further improvement of the system, the comprehensive scoring process of the comprehensive scoring module is as follows: calculating the financial evaluation results of the power grid construction project layer by adopting a linear comprehensive scoring model to obtain comprehensive scoring, wherein the comprehensive scoring model comprises the following steps:
wherein R-is the value of the comprehensive score; w-index weight; u-index calculation result; and determining the grade of the power grid project through comprehensive grading, thereby judging whether the power grid project is feasible in financial evaluation.
A financial evaluation method for a power grid construction project comprises the following steps:
establishing the power grid construction project financial evaluation system, analyzing factors influencing the power grid construction project and financial evaluation from different angles according to the characteristics of the power grid construction project, and establishing a multi-level relation;
determining the weight of each index, determining the weight of each single index for the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project, and planning each index weight by adopting a 3-scale analytic hierarchy process;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation result, and obtaining the comprehensive evaluation result through step-by-step weighted summation of each index according to the index score condition of each level;
and fourthly, evaluating grade division and project decision analysis are carried out, the project financial evaluating grade division standard is determined, and the project decision analysis is given out according to the comprehensive evaluating result.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a power grid construction project financial evaluation index system and an evaluation model based on an analytic hierarchy process, wherein a power grid construction project is analyzed in a multi-dimensional mode through 3 primary indexes and 15 secondary indexes to obtain a comprehensive evaluation result, and the evaluation result is graded.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic block diagram of a financial evaluation system for a power grid construction project;
FIG. 2 is a table of evaluation criteria of power grid construction projects.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. The following description of at least one exemplary embodiment is merely illustrative in nature and is in no way intended to limit the application, its application, or uses. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of example embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" are used in this specification, they specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The relative arrangement of the components and steps, the numerical expressions, and numerical values set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present application unless specifically stated otherwise. Meanwhile, it should be understood that the sizes of the respective portions shown in the drawings are not drawn in an actual proportional relationship for the convenience of description. Techniques, methods, and apparatus known to those of ordinary skill in the relevant art may not be discussed in detail but are intended to be part of the specification where appropriate. In all examples shown and discussed herein, any particular value should be construed as merely illustrative, and not limiting.
Thus, other examples of the exemplary embodiments may have different values. It should be noted that: like reference numbers and letters refer to like items in the following figures, and thus, once an item is defined in one figure, further discussion thereof is not required in subsequent figures.
As shown in fig. 1, a power grid construction project financial evaluation system includes:
the index system construction module is used for analyzing the influence factors of the power grid construction and constructing a power grid construction evaluation index system;
the index weight determining module is used for determining the subjective weight or the objective weight of each evaluation index in the power grid construction evaluation index system;
the comprehensive scoring module calculates the financial evaluation results of the power grid construction project layer by layer based on a linear comprehensive scoring model to obtain comprehensive scoring;
and the grading module grades the evaluation grades according to the comprehensive evaluation of the financial evaluation of the power grid infrastructure project. As a further improvement of the system, the index system building module carries out the building process of the index system as follows: the power grid construction project financial evaluation index system based on the analytic hierarchy process is combined with the characteristics of the power grid construction project to construct a power grid construction project financial evaluation index.
As a further improvement of the system, the financial evaluation indexes of the power grid construction project comprise three levels, namely a target level, a criterion level and an index level.
As a further improvement of the system, the target layer is the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project; the criteria layer comprises profitability, debt capability, and uncertainty; the index layer comprises 15 indexes which are respectively as follows: internal rate of return, net present value rate, net annual value, return on investment, total rate of return on investment, net profit rate on capital funds, interest making up rate, repayment rate, equity rate, cash flow rate, overdrive rate, liability cash flow rate, profit-loss balance analysis and sensitivity analysis;
7 indexes of the internal rate of return, net present value, net annual value, investment recovery period, total investment rate of return and net profit rate of capital fund are corresponding to the profitability evaluation;
6 indexes of interest spare payment rate, debt spare payment rate, asset liability rate, cash flow rate, overspeed dynamic rate and liability cash flow rate correspond to evaluation of debt paying capability;
the 2 indexes of the profit-loss balance analysis and the sensitivity analysis are corresponding to uncertainty analysis.
As a further improvement of the system, the process of the index weight determination module for determining the index weight is as follows: according to the index system construction result, a multilevel structure constructed based on the power grid construction project financial evaluation of the analytic hierarchy process is 3 levels of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, the multilevel structure comprises 3 first-level indexes and 15 second-level indexes, and the indexes of the same level are compared pairwise by adopting 3 scales.
As a further improvement of the system, the method for determining the profitability index weight comprises the following steps: comparing the 7 secondary indexes item by item, and comparing the importance degree of each index relative to the other 6 indexes, wherein the importance degree is divided into important degree and unimportant degree; each index is set to 1, the index which is important relative to the index is set to 2, and the index which is unimportant relative to the index is set to 0, so that the vector of each index is obtained, and further, the judgment matrix B of the secondary index of the profitability is obtainedX；
The repayment ability index weight determination method and the uncertainty analysis weight determination method are similar to the profitability index weight determination method.
As a further improvement of the system, taking profitability as an example, 7 secondary indexes are compared item by item, the importance degrees of the internal profitability relative to net present value, net annual value, investment recovery period, total investment profitability and net profit margin of the capital fund are important, important and unimportant respectively, and the internal profitability vector is obtained as [ 1222220 ], and by analogy, the judgment matrix B of the secondary indexes of the profitability is obtained as follows:
calculating corresponding maximum eigenvalue and eigenvector according to the judgment matrix, wherein the eigenvector obtained after normalization processing is the weight of each index, and the consistency judgment matrix of the secondary index of the profitability is as follows:
after consistency check, the weight of each index of the profitability is obtained:
WX＝[0.233 0 0.112 0 0.037 3 0.053 8 0.093 3 0.134 5 0.336 1]。
as a further improvement of the system, the method is similar to the calculation method of the weights of all indexes of the profitability, and the corresponding weights of the repayment ability and the uncertainty secondary indexes are calculated:
WY＝[0.103 5 0.179 3 0.136 2 0.310 5 0.034 5 0.236 0]
WZ＝[0.500 0 0.5000 0]
in the criterion layer, the weights of profitability, repayment ability and uncertainty are as follows:
W＝[0.692 3 0.230 8 0.076 9]。
as a further improvement of the system, the comprehensive scoring process of the comprehensive scoring module is as follows: calculating the financial evaluation results of the power grid construction project layer by adopting a linear comprehensive scoring model to obtain comprehensive scoring, wherein the comprehensive scoring model comprises the following steps:
wherein R-is the value of the comprehensive score; w-index weight; u-index calculation result; and determining the grade of the power grid project through comprehensive grading, thereby judging whether the power grid project is feasible in financial evaluation.
When the calculated comprehensive score is greater than or equal to 90 minutes, the evaluation grade is excellent, which indicates that the power grid construction project is very feasible in financial evaluation and has high investment value; when the comprehensive score is between 75 and 90, the evaluation grade is good, and the project is feasible on financial evaluation and worth investment; when the comprehensive score is more than or equal to 60 and less than 75, the evaluation grade is general, and the project is general in financial evaluation, not too good, but can be invested; when the comprehensive score is more than or equal to 40 and less than 60, the evaluation grade is poor, and the investment is not worth; when the composite score is less than 40, the rating scale is poor and the project is very poor in financial rating and no investment is recommended, as shown in fig. 2.
A financial evaluation method for a power grid construction project comprises the following steps:
establishing the power grid construction project financial evaluation system, analyzing factors influencing the power grid construction project and financial evaluation from different angles according to the characteristics of the power grid construction project, and establishing a multi-level relation;
determining the weight of each index, determining the weight of each single index for the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project, and planning each index weight by adopting a 3-scale analytic hierarchy process;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation result, and obtaining the comprehensive evaluation result through step-by-step weighted summation of each index according to the index score condition of each level;
and fourthly, evaluating grade division and project decision analysis are carried out, the project financial evaluating grade division standard is determined, and the project decision analysis is given out according to the comprehensive evaluating result.
The invention applies the analytic hierarchy process to the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project, establishes a multilevel power grid construction project financial evaluation index system, simultaneously determines the weight of each index by using a 3-scale analytic hierarchy process, and calculates the comprehensive score through a linear comprehensive scoring model, thereby objectively providing the financial evaluation result. The power grid construction project financial evaluation based on the analytic hierarchy process can effectively evaluate the power grid construction project financial, well realize the financial evaluation grade analysis, give power grid construction project financial reference suggestions aiming at different grades, and has certain guiding significance for the decision of the power grid construction project.
The foregoing examples, while indicating preferred embodiments of the invention, are given by way of illustration and description, but are not intended to limit the invention solely thereto; it is specifically noted that those skilled in the art or others will be able to make local modifications within the system and to make modifications, changes, etc. between subsystems without departing from the structure of the present invention, and all such modifications, changes, etc. fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A power grid construction project financial evaluation system, comprising:
the index system construction module is used for analyzing the influence factors of the power grid construction and constructing a power grid construction evaluation index system;
the index weight determining module is used for determining the subjective weight or the objective weight of each evaluation index in the power grid construction evaluation index system; and the comprehensive scoring module calculates the financial evaluation results of the power grid construction project layer by layer based on the linear comprehensive scoring model to obtain comprehensive scoring.
2. The power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein the index system construction module performs the index system construction process as follows: the power grid construction project financial evaluation index system based on the analytic hierarchy process is combined with the characteristics of the power grid construction project to construct a power grid construction project financial evaluation index.
3. The power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 2, wherein the power grid construction project financial evaluation index comprises three layers, namely a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer.
4. The power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 3, wherein the target layer is a power grid construction project financial evaluation; the criteria layer comprises profitability, debt capability, and uncertainty; the index layer comprises 15 indexes which are respectively as follows: internal rate of return, net present value rate, net annual value, return on investment, total rate of return on investment, net profit rate on capital funds, interest making up rate, repayment rate, equity rate, cash flow rate, overdrive rate, liability cash flow rate, profit-loss balance analysis and sensitivity analysis;
7 indexes of the internal rate of return, net present value, net annual value, investment recovery period, total investment rate of return and net profit rate of capital fund are corresponding to the profitability evaluation;
6 indexes of interest spare payment rate, debt spare payment rate, asset liability rate, cash flow rate, overspeed dynamic rate and liability cash flow rate correspond to evaluation of debt paying capability;
the 2 indexes of the profit-loss balance analysis and the sensitivity analysis are corresponding to uncertainty analysis.
5. The power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 4, wherein the index weight determination module determines the index weight by the following process: according to the index system construction result, a multilevel structure constructed based on the power grid construction project financial evaluation of the analytic hierarchy process is 3 levels of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, the multilevel structure comprises 3 first-level indexes and 15 second-level indexes, and the indexes of the same level are compared pairwise by adopting 3 scales.
6. The power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 5, wherein the profitability index weight determination method comprises: comparing the 7 secondary indexes item by item, and comparing the importance degree of each index relative to the other 6 indexes, wherein the importance degree is divided into important degree and unimportant degree; each index is set to 1, the index which is important relative to the index is set to 2, and the index which is unimportant relative to the index is set to 0, so that the vector of each index is obtained, and further, the judgment matrix B of the secondary index of the profitability is obtainedX；
The repayment ability index weight determination method and the uncertainty analysis weight determination method are similar to the profitability index weight determination method.
7. The power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 6, wherein 7 secondary indexes are compared item by item taking profitability as an example, the importance degrees of the internal profitability relative net present value, net annual value, investment recovery period, total investment profitability and net profit margin of capital fund are important, important and unimportant respectively, and the internal profitability vector is obtained as [ 1222220 ], and by analogy, the judgment matrix B of the secondary indexes of profitability is obtained as follows:
calculating corresponding maximum eigenvalue and eigenvector according to the judgment matrix, wherein the eigenvector obtained after normalization processing is the weight of each index, and the consistency judgment matrix of the secondary index of the profitability is as follows:
after consistency check, the weight of each index of the profitability is obtained:
WX＝[0.233 0 0.112 0 0.0.7 3 0.053 8 0.093 3 0.134 5 0.336 1]。
8. the power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 7, wherein corresponding weights of the repayment ability and the uncertainty secondary indexes are calculated by the same method for calculating the weights of the indexes of the profit ability:
WY＝[0.103 5 0.179 3 0.136 2 0.310 5 0.034 5 0.236 0]
WZ＝[0.500 0 0.500 0]
in the criterion layer, the weights of profitability, repayment ability and uncertainty are as follows:
W＝[0.692 3 0.230 8 0.076 9]。
9. the power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to claim 7, wherein the comprehensive scoring process of the comprehensive scoring module is as follows: calculating the financial evaluation results of the power grid construction project layer by adopting a linear comprehensive scoring model to obtain comprehensive scoring, wherein the comprehensive scoring model comprises the following steps:
wherein R-is the value of the comprehensive score; w-index weight; u-index calculation result; and determining the grade of the power grid project through comprehensive grading, thereby judging whether the power grid project is feasible in financial evaluation.
10. The financial evaluation method for the power grid construction project is characterized by comprising the following steps:
establishing a power grid construction project financial evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 9, analyzing factors influencing power grid construction projects and financial evaluation from different angles according to the characteristics of the power grid construction projects, and constructing a multi-level relation;
determining the weight of each index, determining the weight of each single index for the financial evaluation of the power grid construction project, and planning each index weight by adopting a 3-scale analytic hierarchy process;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation result, and obtaining the comprehensive evaluation result through step-by-step weighted summation of each index according to the index score condition of each level;
and fourthly, evaluating grade division and project decision analysis are carried out, the project financial evaluating grade division standard is determined, and the project decision analysis is given out according to the comprehensive evaluating result.
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Application publication date: 20200306 |