CN110807569A - Tailings pond risk evaluation and management method for different interest groups under extreme working conditions - Google Patents
Tailings pond risk evaluation and management method for different interest groups under extreme working conditions Download PDFInfo
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- CN110807569A CN110807569A CN201910877363.6A CN201910877363A CN110807569A CN 110807569 A CN110807569 A CN 110807569A CN 201910877363 A CN201910877363 A CN 201910877363A CN 110807569 A CN110807569 A CN 110807569A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a tailing pond risk assessment method for different interest groups under extreme working conditions, which comprises the following steps: step one, designing an extreme condition of a tailing pond, wherein the extreme condition is that the tailing pond breaks a dam; simulating the process of the extreme condition occurrence of the tailing pond, and analyzing the risk level in the influence range of the tailing pond under the extreme condition; step three, analyzing the vulnerability of each risk factor under the extreme condition of the tailing pond; step four, calculating the total risk value of the extreme condition of the tailing pond; and step five, evaluating the risks of different interest groups, and further providing a tailing pond risk management method of different interest groups under extreme working conditions according to the tailing pond risk evaluation method of different interest groups under extreme working conditions. The method has the effect of establishing the risk management model which accords with different interest groups.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of a method for evaluating risks of a tailing pond. More specifically, the invention relates to a method for evaluating and managing the risks of tailings ponds of different interest groups under extreme working conditions.
Background
The dam break of the tailing pond can cause serious casualties, and is accompanied with environmental health problems such as pollution and the like, and the risk consequences are extremely complex. Compared with a natural slope or a common dam, the stability of the dam body of the tailing pond is difficult to accurately calculate due to multiple influence factors and large time change. According to investigation, the second major cause of the landslide of the abandoned dreg site or the dam break of the tailings pond is poor management and less human activities. Raising the safety standards of the dump to cope with these uncertainties requires the added cost of reinforcement projects, which is unacceptable to mine investors. In addition, the old spoil or tailings ponds also need post-risk assessment to determine whether their original safety standards can meet the current situation. The risk awareness of the slag yard managers is insufficient, the attention degree of mine enterprises is insufficient, the participation degree of local residents and enterprises is not high, and the risks born by different interest groups after the dam break of the tailing pond need to be estimated, so that the loss of each interest group is reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
An object of the present invention is to solve at least the above problems and to provide at least the advantages described later.
The invention also aims to provide a method for evaluating the risks of the tailings ponds of different interest groups under the extreme working conditions and a method for managing the risks of the tailings ponds of different interest groups under the extreme working conditions, and the method has the effect of establishing risk management models conforming to different interest groups.
To achieve these objects and other advantages in accordance with the present invention, there is provided a method for risk assessment of tailings ponds of different interest groups under extreme conditions, comprising the steps of:
step one, designing an extreme condition of a tailing pond, wherein the extreme condition is that the tailing pond breaks a dam;
simulating the process of the extreme condition occurrence of the tailing pond, and analyzing the risk level in the influence range of the tailing pond under the extreme condition;
step three, analyzing the vulnerability of each risk factor under the extreme condition of the tailing pond;
step four, calculating the total risk value of the extreme condition of the tailing pond;
and step five, evaluating the risks of different interest groups.
Preferably, the basis for designing the extreme condition of the tailings pond in the step one is as follows: researching the relation among geological environment backgrounds, geological environment problems and mining activities of regional tailing ponds; researching the position, dam break direction and dam break scale of the unstable extreme accident of the tailings dam in the area; and (4) researching the number of personnel, the number and the type of buildings, the type and the area of land and the number of highway kilometers in the dam break influence range of the regional tailing pond.
Preferably, the method for classifying the risk level in the step two comprises the following steps: classifying according to debris flow disasters, dividing the dam break influence range of the tailing pond according to the relation among the mud depth, the mud depth and the maximum flow velocity, and analyzing the risk levels, namely low risk, medium risk and high risk, in the dam break influence range of the tailing dam.
Preferably, each risk factor in the third step comprises direct economic loss (D), social and economic and ecological vulnerability (F), and lack of restoration capacity or coping and restoration capacity (R), wherein the direct economic loss is directly calculated by the loss, and the vulnerability grade division of the social and economic and ecological vulnerability, the lack of restoration capacity or coping and restoration capacity is according to questionnaire data of residents and mine enterprises and analysis of local economic annual reports.
Preferably, the third step includes counting questionnaire data, grading different indexes in the questionnaire data, calculating each grade of index by using an analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining the weight w of each index in the whole risk factorsijAn adjustment factor α is calculated based on the proportional weight,
wherein, FijScoring the index of social and economic and ecological vulnerability, RijAnd in order to score the deficiency of the recovery ability or the coping and recovery ability, m is the number of the secondary indexes, and n is the number of the secondary indexes affected.
Preferably, the questionnaire data for the local residents in step three includes: the proportion of the building occupying household fixed assets in the influence range of the tailing pond, the proportion of the land occupying the total area of household land in the influence range of the tailing pond, whether production can be recovered according to the existing production data, whether the building can return to the original land for life, and whether agricultural activities can be continuously carried out on the land in the influence range;
questionnaire data for mine enterprises include: the number of employees of an enterprise, the influence of the fault of the tailing dam on the normal operation of the mine, whether the tailing pond is capable of being repaired, whether capital is available for compensating the life and property loss of residents, whether the polluted land can be recovered and corresponding environmental pollution countermeasures;
questionnaire data for governments include: and (3) investigating and analyzing the dependence of local economy on mining enterprises, employment opportunities of other enterprises and whether local governments can undertake immigration placement after the dam break of the tailings reservoir.
Preferably, the total risk value of the extreme conditions of the tailings pond is calculated by the benchmark risk in the fourth step, and the benchmark risk RDThe total risk caused by various risk factors of dam break of the tailings pond is quantified according to the adjustment factor α obtained in the step three as the adjustment factor of the reference risk, and is recorded as RT＝RD(1+α)。
Preferably, the risk assessment method for different interest groups in the step five comprises the following steps: analyzing different risk types of different interest groups, calculating direct economic losses of the different interest groups, establishing an F-N curve, and evaluating risk ranges of the different interest groups by using the F-N curve, wherein F is the damage probability of the tailing dam and is related to the safety coefficient of the tailing dam, and N is the number of dead people or economic losses when the tailing dam is broken.
The method for managing the risks of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working conditions comprises the following steps:
making a risk decision;
and seventhly, risk control is carried out: the harm of a tailing pond is reduced by implementing engineering measures; reducing the vulnerability of risk factors; reducing and dispersing risk factors;
step eight, implementing a decision scheme: different risk decision schemes are implemented according to risk.
The invention at least comprises the following beneficial effects: according to the method, the risk level after dam break is directly evaluated, the stability coefficient and the damage probability of the dam body which are complex and inaccurate in calculation are avoided, and the risk evaluation after dam break is directly obtained, so that the risk result is more accurate. Meanwhile, the risk value of different interest groups is considered through calculation of quantitative risk economic values of the different interest groups, and the risk assessment and management under the condition are more in line with multi-group benefit and safety maximization.
Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and in part will become apparent to those having ordinary skill in the art upon examination of the following or may be learned from practice of the invention.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the F-N curve structure of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further described in detail below with reference to examples so that those skilled in the art can practice the invention with reference to the description.
The embodiment provides a tailings pond risk assessment method for different interest groups under extreme working conditions, which comprises the following steps:
designing an extreme condition of a tailing pond, wherein the extreme condition is the condition that the tailing pond is damaged, and the most serious extreme condition is dam break, so that the extreme condition is supposed to occur according to the condition when the tailing pond is damaged in the past;
the extreme condition of the tailing pond is formed by researching and analyzing the geological condition of the tailing pond, collecting data when the tailing pond is damaged and acquiring the hypothesis of the possibly influenced area of the tailing pond, and the extreme condition of the tailing pond is designed according to the following steps: the method comprises the steps of researching the relation among geological environment backgrounds, geological environment problems and mining activities of a regional tailing pond, researching positions, dam break directions and dam break scales of instability extreme accidents of the regional tailing dam, and researching the basic data of the number of personnel, the number and the type of buildings, the types and the areas of land and highway kilometers in the dam break influence range of the regional tailing pond, wherein the relation among the geological environment backgrounds, the geological environment problems and the mining activities of the regional tailing pond is obtained by collecting geological data, topographic data, tailing dam characteristics, spot-5 and quick-bird remote sensing data of the regional tailing pond, combining the spot-5 and quick-bird remote sensing data, performing remote sensing interpretation, and obtaining the result through statistical analysis.
Simulating the process of the extreme condition occurrence of the tailing pond, and analyzing the risk level in the influence range of the tailing pond under the extreme condition;
the method for simulating the process of the extreme condition occurrence of the tailing pond comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of combining the scale of a tailings pond measured on site, reducing the tailings pond indoors in an equal proportion, simulating a dam break process by using field-obtained tailings, and obtaining the maximum flow velocity (V), the mud depth (H) and the dam break range of the tailings by using a photographic means;
the method for dividing the risk level comprises the following steps: according to classification of debris flow disasters, the dam break influence range of the tailing pond is divided according to the relation among the mud depth (H), the mud depth (H) and the maximum flow velocity (V), the risk levels, namely low risk, medium risk and high risk, in the dam break influence range of the tailing pond are analyzed, and the risk level division scheme after the tailing pond breaks is shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 scheme for classifying geological environment danger levels after dam break of tailing pond
Step three, analyzing the vulnerability of each risk factor under the extreme condition of the tailing pond;
local residents, buildings, land covered by broken dams of tailings ponds, and tailings ponds themselves are major risk factors. Direct economic loss can be calculated, however, shutdown of mine enterprises caused by abandonment of tailing ponds causes employee unemployment, destruction of buildings and land in peripheral residential areas and environmental pollution, and causes economic, social and environmental hazards which are difficult to calculate; therefore, the vulnerability of the tailing pond in the extreme case depends on three risk factors of direct economic loss (D), social and economic and ecological vulnerability (F) and lack of restoration capacity or coping and restoration capacity (R), the vulnerability of the tailing pond in the extreme case depends on direct economic loss (D) and can be directly calculated, the social and economic and ecological vulnerability (F) and lack of restoration capacity or coping and restoration capacity (R) cannot be directly calculated and only can be relatively graded, and the vulnerability grading of the social and economic and ecological vulnerability (D), lack of restoration capacity or coping and restoration capacity (R) is based on the analysis of questionnaire data of mine enterprises and residents and local economic annual reports;
questionnaire data for mine enterprises include: the number of employees of an enterprise, the influence of the fault of the tailing dam on the normal operation of the mine, whether the tailing pond is capable of being repaired, whether capital is available for compensating the life and property loss of residents, whether the polluted land can be recovered and corresponding environmental pollution countermeasures;
questionnaire data for local residents includes: the proportion of the building occupying household fixed assets in the influence range of the tailing pond, the proportion of the land occupying the total area of household land in the influence range, whether production can be recovered according to the existing production data, whether the building can return to the original land for life, and whether agricultural activities can be continuously carried out on the land in the influence range;
questionnaire data for governments include: investigating and analyzing the dependence of local economy on mining enterprises, employment opportunities of other enterprises and whether local governments can undertake immigration placement after the dam break of the tailing pond;
the vulnerability analysis index system and the classification made according to the scheme are shown in the table 2;
TABLE 2 vulnerability analysis index systems and classifications
Counting questionnaire data of the survey, grading different indexes in the questionnaire data in a grading way, grading scores correspond to the indexes in a grading way, and grading each grade of indexes by utilizing an analytic hierarchy processCalculating to obtain the weight w of each index in the whole risk factorsijAn adjustment factor α is calculated based on the proportional weight,
wherein, FijScoring the index of social and economic and ecological vulnerability, RijAnd in order to score the deficiency of the recovery ability or the coping and recovery ability, m is the number of the secondary indexes, and n is the number of the secondary indexes affected.
Step four, calculating the total risk value of the extreme condition of the tailing pond according to the benchmark risk;
the risk is the comprehensive expression of potential social, economic and environmental hazards after damage to extreme events such as tailing dams, the risk of economic loss and personal death in exposure of buildings and infrastructure is used as a benchmark risk, and a benchmark risk RDAccording to the adjustment coefficient α obtained in the step three, the total risk caused by each risk factor of dam break of the tailings pond is quantified by taking the adjustment coefficient α obtained in the step three as an adjustment factor of the reference risk, and the total risk value is obtained and is recorded as RT＝RD(1+α)。
Evaluating the risks of different interest groups;
the general purpose of risk assessment is to determine an acceptable risk (or risk tolerance), and the risk criteria for governments, mine owners and local residents vary, taking into account the differences in local economic, social and ecological conditions. Therefore, risk assessment must be conducted by negotiation among multi-party stakeholders of experts, mine owners, governments, and residents, with different groups having different considered risk values, and with different groups having risk types as shown in table 3;
TABLE 3 different Risk types for different interest groups
The risk evaluation method of different interest groups comprises the following steps: analyzing different risk types of different interest groups, and calculating benchmark risk R of different interest groupsDCalculating an adjustment coefficient α according to the vulnerability description related to different interest groups to obtain the quantitative risk economic value R of the different interest groupsTI.e. the total risk value RT；
Establishing an F-N curve, and evaluating the risk range of quantitative risk economic values of different interest groups by using the F-N curve, wherein the F-N curve is shown in figure 1, the F is the damage probability of a tailing dam, the damage probability of the tailing dam is related to the safety coefficient of the tailing dam, the safety coefficient is a fixed value, each tailing dam has a safety coefficient after being established, the safety coefficient suitable for the place is deduced by supposing that the place can be subjected to disasters, the N is the number of death people or economic loss when the tailing dam is broken, and the N is obtained by the F-N curve according to domestic accidents and experience statistics.
The method for managing the risks of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working conditions comprises the following steps:
step six, making a risk decision according to a risk evaluation result, wherein the risk decision scheme is divided into five regions on an F-N curve, and the regions adopt different measures to reduce the risks of a tailing pond and other waste residue fields;
and seventhly, risk control is carried out: the harm of a tailing pond is reduced by implementing engineering measures; reducing the vulnerability of risk factors; reducing and dispersing risk factors;
step eight, implementing a decision scheme: implementing different risk decision schemes according to risk;
zones i and ii on the F-N curve are unacceptable risk zones, indicating that the tailings pond is not suitable for the current conditions. The minimum safety factor of the tailing dam can be determined according to the economic loss and death condition under extreme conditions in the design stage. If the safety factor exists and cannot be changed, certain elements (such as personnel, buildings) should be moved out of the risk area;
zone iii on the F-N curve is a medium risk zone where the risk of economic value ranges from widely acceptable to unacceptable; these are areas where the risk is tolerable and can be managed by appropriate measures to reduce the risk. The time of personnel in the risk area is reduced, the building is reinforced, and the monitoring of dam deformation is an effective measure for reducing the risk. Reinforcing tailings dams that may affect densely populated areas may also reduce the risk of human and economic losses;
in the region IV on the F-N curve, economic losses are an acceptable risk and loss of life is a tolerable risk. Reducing the time spent by people in the area and monitoring dam deformation are the main measures to reduce the risk of personnel;
zone v on the F-N curve is an area where economic losses and risk of casualty are acceptable, and does not require mitigation.
The extreme condition risk management model provided by the invention adopts the reliability, and can effectively guide the design of slag dam reinforcement and other risk mitigation projects. Waste slag fields such as tailings and slag piles are high-risk key areas, and risk evaluation and management need to be more emphasized. Unstable accidents at these sites are more affected by human factors, such as the quality of maintenance and reinforcement works of drainage facilities, than natural disasters. Scientific management is the key to reducing the risk of slag heaps. Therefore, we propose a new extremely case dump risk analysis and management program, with emphasis on analyzing the hazard intensity and vulnerability, but without emphasizing the determination of the failure probability. And classifying the risk levels by adopting methods such as laboratory experiments, numerical simulation, questionnaire survey and the like. And determining measures and early warning systems according to different levels. The model also provides a concept of a "risk sharing community" that encourages mining companies, residents, technicians, experts, and government departments participating in the risk event to improve acceptable risk levels and the rationality of risk mitigation measures. Risk management is an effective model and in many cases it is difficult to determine a stability analysis of the failure probability. The actual application of the model is combined with the actual characteristics of a slag field, the harmfulness, the fragility, the reliability and the safety coefficient of dam design indexes are further researched, and guidance and risk design are provided for risk accidents under extreme conditions.
While embodiments of the invention have been described above, it is not limited to the applications set forth in the description and the embodiments, which are fully applicable to various fields of endeavor for which the invention may be embodied with additional modifications as would be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the invention is therefore not limited to the details given herein and to the embodiments shown and described without departing from the generic concept as defined by the claims and their equivalents.
Claims (9)
1. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working condition is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step one, designing an extreme condition of a tailing pond, wherein the extreme condition is that the tailing pond breaks a dam;
simulating the process of the extreme condition occurrence of the tailing pond, and analyzing the risk level in the influence range of the tailing pond under the extreme condition;
step three, analyzing the vulnerability of each risk factor under the extreme condition of the tailing pond;
step four, calculating the total risk value of the extreme condition of the tailing pond;
and step five, evaluating the risks of different interest groups.
2. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working conditions as claimed in claim 1, wherein the basis for designing the extreme conditions of the tailings pond in the step one is as follows: researching the relation among geological environment backgrounds, geological environment problems and mining activities of regional tailing ponds; researching the position, dam break direction and dam break scale of the unstable extreme accident of the tailings dam in the area; and (4) researching the number of personnel, the number and the type of buildings, the type and the area of land and the number of highway kilometers in the dam break influence range of the regional tailing pond.
3. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings ponds of different interest groups under the extreme working conditions as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method for dividing the risk grade in the step two comprises the following steps: classifying according to debris flow disasters, dividing the dam break influence range of the tailing pond according to the relation among the mud depth, the mud depth and the maximum flow velocity, and analyzing the risk levels, namely low risk, medium risk and high risk, in the dam break influence range of the tailing dam.
4. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working condition of claim 1, wherein the risk factors in the third step comprise direct economic loss (D), social and economic and ecological vulnerability (F), and lack of restoration capability or coping and restoration capability (R), the direct economic loss is directly calculated from the caused loss, and the vulnerability grade division of the social and economic and ecological vulnerability and the lack of restoration capability or coping and restoration capability is based on questionnaire data of residents and mine enterprises and analysis of local economic annual reports.
5. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailing pond of different interest groups under the extreme condition as claimed in claim 4, wherein the third step comprises the steps of counting questionnaire data, grading and scoring different indexes in the questionnaire data, and calculating each grade of index by using an analytic hierarchy process to obtain the weight w of each index in the whole risk factorsijAn adjustment factor α is calculated based on the proportional weight,
wherein, FijScoring the index of social and economic and ecological vulnerability, RijAnd in order to score the deficiency of the recovery ability or the coping and recovery ability, m is the number of the secondary indexes, and n is the number of the secondary indexes affected.
6. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working condition as claimed in claim 4, wherein the questionnaire data for the local residents in the third step comprises: the proportion of the building occupying household fixed assets in the influence range of the tailing pond, the proportion of the land occupying the total area of household land in the influence range of the tailing pond, whether production can be recovered according to the existing production data, whether the building can return to the original land for life, and whether agricultural activities can be continuously carried out on the land in the influence range;
questionnaire data for mine enterprises include: the number of employees of an enterprise, the influence of the fault of the tailing dam on the normal operation of the mine, whether the tailing pond is capable of being repaired, whether capital is available for compensating the life and property loss of residents, whether the polluted land can be recovered and corresponding environmental pollution countermeasures;
questionnaire data for governments include: and (3) investigating and analyzing the dependence of local economy on mining enterprises, employment opportunities of other enterprises and whether local governments can undertake immigration placement after the dam break of the tailings reservoir.
7. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings pond with different interest groups under the extreme working conditions as claimed in claim 5, wherein the total risk value of the tailings pond under the extreme conditions is calculated by the reference risk in the fourth step, and the reference risk R isDThe total risk caused by various risk factors of dam break of the tailings pond is quantified according to the adjustment factor α obtained in the step three as the adjustment factor of the reference risk, and is recorded as RT＝RD(1+α)。
8. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings ponds of different interest groups under the extreme working conditions of claim 1, wherein the risk evaluation method of different interest groups in the fifth step is as follows: analyzing different risk types of different interest groups, calculating direct economic losses of the different interest groups, establishing an F-N curve, and evaluating risk ranges of the different interest groups by using the F-N curve, wherein F is the damage probability of the tailing dam and is related to the safety coefficient of the tailing dam, and N is the number of dead people or economic losses when the tailing dam is broken.
9. The method for evaluating the risk of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working condition according to any one of claims 1 to 8, further comprising a method for managing the risk of the tailings pond of different interest groups under the extreme working condition, which comprises the following specific steps:
making a risk decision according to a risk evaluation result;
and seventhly, risk control is carried out: the engineering measures are implemented to reduce the harm of a tailing pond, reduce the vulnerability of risk factors and reduce and disperse the risk factors;
step eight, implementing a decision scheme: different risk decision schemes are implemented according to risk.
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Application publication date: 20200218 |