CN110751558A - Construction method of time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment - Google Patents
Construction method of time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a construction method of a time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment, which comprises the following steps: collecting relevant event data of a certain stock in a stock market, constructing an event database, classifying each event data according to risk types, analyzing each type of event data according to respective evaluation models to obtain evaluation results corresponding to each event data, and marking the evaluation results on corresponding time price points on a K-line graph of the corresponding stock, wherein the marking colors of the evaluation results of the same risk type are the same. The method mainly combines a K line graph based on volume price with a risk event to create a new information display and visual analysis mode.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of securities risk analysis. More particularly, the invention relates to a construction method of a time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment.
Background
The stock price showing method most frequently used in the financial market is a K line graph. Through the K line graph, the daily stock price trend expression can be completely recorded, after the stock price passes through a disc file for a period of time, a special area or form is formed on the graph, and different forms show different meanings. We can feel some regularity from the change of these forms. Usually, in order to observe the trend of a stock, the K line of the stock can be directly observed, and some abnormal stock prices can be also very visually observed through the K line graph.
Although K-line graphs are very valuable for stock trend display, stock price changes in the chinese market are often accompanied by market-related information and trading behavior, which is not reflected by K-line graphs, i.e., K-line graphs can only explain stock price changes, but do not reveal much of the various possible causes of stock price changes. For example, the issuance of a good message or a corporate milestone may cause the stock price to rise or fall momentarily, while the K-line graph only reveals changes in the stock price, but not the message or milestone associated therewith. For securities market regulatory agencies and market analysts, the events behind these stock price changes are more important, which are important clues for risk analysis and judgment, and are also the breakthrough points for the regulatory agencies to check out cases of security illegal crimes.
Disclosure of Invention
An object of the present invention is to solve at least the above problems and to provide at least the advantages described later.
The invention also aims to provide a construction method of a time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment, which mainly combines a K line graph based on volume price with risk events to create a new information display and visual analysis mode.
To achieve these objects and other advantages in accordance with the present invention, there is provided a method for constructing a timeline tool for securities risk analysis and judgment, comprising: collecting relevant event data of a certain stock in a stock market, constructing an event database, classifying each event data according to risk types, analyzing each type of event data according to respective evaluation models to obtain evaluation results corresponding to each event data, and marking the evaluation results on corresponding time price points on a K-line graph of the corresponding stock, wherein the marking colors of the evaluation results of the same risk type are the same.
Preferably, the risk types of the construction method of the time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment comprise a share pledge event, a price transaction event and a interest announcement event.
Preferably, in the method for constructing a tool for analyzing and judging securities risks, the evaluation model of the share-right pledge event is as follows:
appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, obtaining the record of the number of pledges of a certain shareholder on the day and all the records of the number of undequests in the past, and obtaining the details of the price transaction event of the trading day of the stock through calculation, wherein the specific calculation mode is as follows:
traversing all the records of the number of the stockholders which are not released before the trading date, and overlapping the number of all the records to obtain the total number of the mortgages which are not released on the current trading date of the stockholders, wherein the formula is as follows:
traversing all the pledge records of the shareholder on the day, and calculating the pledge rate x% of the pledge record of the shareholder, wherein the formula is as follows:
the evaluation result of the share pledge event is "x% for the share of the share pledge".
Preferably, in the method for constructing a tool for analyzing and judging securities risks, the evaluation model of the price transaction event is as follows:
1) appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, and acquiring closing price information C of 31 past trading days1，C2，...，C30，C31As input, a specified transaction date andthe ma30 and ma10 of the last transaction day of the transaction day are specified, and the calculation formula is as follows:
2) if ma10today＞ma30todayAnd ma10yesterday＜ma30yesterdayIf the stock price of the trading day is abnormal, outputting 'a mean ma10 day line breaks down a mean ma30 day line upwards, and the price trend changes from falling to rising'; if ma10today＜ma30todayAnd ma10yesterday＞ma30yesterdayIf the stock price of the trading day is abnormal, outputting 'a mean ma10 day line breaks down a mean ma30 day line, and the price trend changes from falling to rising'; otherwise output "" is output.
Preferably, the method for constructing a tool for analyzing and judging securities risks according to the time axis comprises the following steps:
1) collecting a large number of historical bulletin texts and label categories of artificial marks corresponding to the bulletin texts, and training a bulletin classification model by using a machine learning classification algorithm;
2) based on the investigation of historical bulletins, relevant financial field experts give out definition of favorable bulletins according to a large amount of documents and sufficient experience of the experts, and give out a bulletin type list corresponding to the favorable bulletins;
3) appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, acquiring bulletin texts issued on the trading day, inputting any one of the bulletin texts into a bulletin classification model, giving out a bulletin type of the bulletin text by the bulletin classification model, judging whether the bulletin type exists in a bulletin type list, if so, taking the bulletin text as a favorable bulletin, and listing a bulletin title of the bulletin text in a bill of the favorable bulletin, otherwise, not listing the bulletin text; the bill of interest announcements is output as output information.
Preferably, the risk types of the construction method of the timeline tool for securities risk analysis and judgment further include a bulk trade event, a cattle scatter-in event, a private recruitment event, a stockholder loss event and a financial report transaction event.
Preferably, the method for constructing a tool for analyzing and judging securities risks includes the following steps:
step S1, establishing stock price database: collecting stock price basic data on the stock market, constructing a stock price basic data base, and continuously updating every day;
step S2, event data analysis: collecting relevant event data of a certain stock in the stock market, constructing an event database, classifying each event data according to risk types, and analyzing each event data according to respective evaluation model to obtain an evaluation result corresponding to each event data;
step S3, combining the event data with the K-line graph:
step S31, creating a K-line graph: drawing a K line graph of a certain stock on a time axis according to the stock price basic database;
a step S32 of creating an n-day moving average line map (MA _ n) and a slab index line map on the K line map;
step S33, circles with different colors are adopted, the multiple evaluation results obtained in the step S2 are respectively marked above the K line graph in a one-to-one correspondence mode according to time points, and a time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment is formed, wherein the circles of the evaluation results of the same risk type are marked with the same color; only one evaluation result of the same risk type exists on the same day; when the mouse pointer moves over any circle mark, a message window pops up below the circle mark, and the message window displays detailed information of the evaluation result corresponding to the circle mark and corresponding event data.
Preferably, in the method for constructing a tool for analyzing and judging securities risks, the circles of different colors are sequentially marked on the K-line graph from top to bottom according to a plurality of different evaluation results at the same time point.
Preferably, in the method for constructing a timeline tool for analysis and judgment of securities risks, the stock price basic data in step S1 includes stock prices, related technical indexes, stock volume, and stock indexes.
The invention at least comprises the following beneficial effects:
in view of the defects of the existing K line graph and the existing securities analysis tools in the market at present and the urgent need of the certificate research and judgment details of the supervision institution and the like, the combination of the K line graph and the risk event is found to be capable of well helping the supervision institution and the market analyst and the like to more intuitively see the cause of the price change based on the massive exploration of the China market. This patent provides a time axis instrument that security risk analysis of combination risk event and stock price trend was studied and judged to can directly know the relevant risk of securities fast and relevant incident with this fast such as the supervisor of convenient all kinds of supervisory mechanisms, risk management analyst, stock analyst, comb the relevant incident of certificate fast comprehensively, reduce the probability of omitting valuable information, thereby can carry out whole assurance and analysis to the security, thereby help studying and judging the analysis of security risk.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: on the basis of a traditional K line graph based on volume price, a series of related risk events obtained through statistical calculation and used for analyzing specific risks of stocks or analyzing asset pricing are marked on the graph according to time sequence, and early warning results of the specific risks of the certificates and obtained based on models are marked on a time axis tool, so that information, such as behavior, price change, risk early warning and the like, which is most related to the analysis of the certificates is disclosed, and the reason of the change of the certificates and the cause and the result of the related risks of the stocks and listed companies are quickly combed by a supervision agency and a market analyst.
Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and in part will become apparent to those having ordinary skill in the art upon examination of the following or may be learned from practice of the invention.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the drawings and examples so that those skilled in the art can practice the invention with reference to the description.
It will be understood that terms such as "having," "including," and "comprising," as used herein, do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other elements or groups thereof.
It is to be noted that the experimental methods described in the following embodiments are all conventional methods unless otherwise specified, and the reagents and materials are commercially available unless otherwise specified.
In the description of the present invention, the terms "lateral", "longitudinal", "up", "down", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", etc., indicate orientations or positional relationships based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the drawings, are only for convenience in describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element being referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus, should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a method for constructing a time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step 100, establishing a stock price database: collecting stock price basic data on the stock market, constructing a stock price basic data base, and continuously updating every day; the stock price basic data comprises stock prices, related technical indexes, stock volume and stock indexes; stock price: the highest price, the lowest price, the opening price and the closing price of the stock each day; the related technical indexes are as follows: n days moving average (MA _ n); volume of finished delivery: the volume and volume of trades of the stock per day; stock index: the upper syndrome comprehensive finger, the deep syndrome adult finger and the entrepreneurship board finger of each day;
step 200, event data analysis: collecting relevant event data of a certain stock in the stock market, constructing an event database, classifying each event data according to risk types, and analyzing each event data according to respective evaluation model to obtain an evaluation result corresponding to each event data;
the risk types comprise a share pledge event, a price transaction event, a interest announcement event, a bulk transaction event, a cattle scatter-in event, a private recruitment event, a shareholder support reduction event and a financial report transaction event;
the evaluation model of the share pledge event is:
appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, obtaining the record of the number of pledges of a certain shareholder on the day and all the records of the number of undequests in the past, and obtaining the details of the price transaction event of the trading day of the stock through calculation, wherein the specific calculation mode is as follows:
traversing all the records of the number of the stockholders which are not released before the trading date, and overlapping the number of all the records to obtain the total number of the mortgages which are not released on the current trading date of the stockholders, wherein the formula is as follows:
traversing all the pledge records of the shareholder on the day, and calculating the pledge rate x% of the pledge record of the shareholder, wherein the formula is as follows:
the evaluation result of the share pledge event is' x% of share pledge;
the evaluation model of the price transaction event is as follows:
1) appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, and acquiring closing price information C of 31 past trading days1，C2，...，C30，C31As input, a specified transaction day and a specified transaction date are calculatedMa30 and ma10 for each transaction day, the calculation formula is as follows:
2) if ma10today＞ma30todayAnd ma10yesterday＜ma30yesterdayIf the stock price of the trading day is abnormal, outputting 'a mean ma10 day line breaks down a mean ma30 day line upwards, and the price trend changes from falling to rising'; if ma10today＜ma30todayAnd ma10yesterday＞ma30yesterdayIf the stock price of the trading day is abnormal, outputting 'a mean ma10 day line breaks down a mean ma30 day line, and the price trend changes from falling to rising'; otherwise output ";
the evaluation model of the interest announcement event is:
1) collecting a large number of historical bulletin texts and label categories of artificial marks corresponding to the bulletin texts, and training a bulletin classification model by using a machine learning classification algorithm; the machine learning classification algorithm is based on a character-level convolutional neural network (CharCNN) algorithm in deep learning, utilizes a large number of bulletin texts and training sets of labels thereof existing in history, carries out preprocessing such as word segmentation, word deactivation and conversion into mathematical representation on the bulletin texts, and then inputs the preprocessed bulletin texts into a convolutional neural network for training. Using GPU to perform accelerated calculation until the algorithm is converged to obtain a notice classification model, and testing the model to achieve more than 90% of accuracy on a test set;
2) based on the investigation of historical bulletins, relevant financial field experts give out definition of favorable bulletins according to a large amount of documents and sufficient experience of the experts, and give out a bulletin type list corresponding to the favorable bulletins;
3) appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, acquiring a bulletin text issued on the trading day, inputting the bulletin text into a bulletin classification model, giving out a bulletin type of the bulletin text by the bulletin classification model, judging whether the bulletin type exists in a bulletin type list, if so, taking the bulletin text as a favorable bulletin, and listing a bulletin title of the bulletin text in a bill of the favorable bulletin, otherwise, not listing the bulletin text; the bill which is favorable for announcement is output as output information;
step 300, combining the event data with the K-line graph:
step 301, making a K line graph: drawing a K line graph of a certain stock on a time axis according to the stock price basic database in the step S100; the drawing of the K line graph specifically comprises the following steps: corresponding K line graphs are made on a time axis by using the highest price, the lowest price, the opening price and the closing price of the stock each day, the price of opening and closing is firstly determined, and the part between the price and the closing price is drawn as a rectangular entity. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, the k line is called as a positive line and is represented by an empty entity; conversely, the negative line is represented by a black or white entity; connecting the highest price and the lowest price with the entity by using thinner lines respectively; the line between the highest price and the entity is called the upper hatch and the line between the lowest price and the entity is called the lower hatch. Drawing a bar chart of the stock trading volume in the lower area of the K line chart, and displaying the trading volume of the stocks corresponding to each day;
step 302, drawing an n-day moving average line graph (MA _ n) and a plate index line graph on the K line graph; making an n-day moving average (MA _ n) of the stock on a K-line graph; directly making the average value of the closing prices of the first n days of each day on the graph, and connecting the points by using a green line to form a line graph which is the moving average line of the n days; the index of the corresponding plate of the stock is made in the same way, but the color of the line graph is pink so as to be distinguished from the MA _ n line; the time axis tool displays data within a certain time range in a default mode, if a user needs to change the displayed time range, the user only needs to move a mouse pointer to a K line graph area and slide a pulley upwards and downwards to achieve amplification and reduction of the K line graph, and the displayed time range is reduced or enlarged; a mouse pointer is placed above a K line graph on any day, so that detailed data of the stock trading data on the current day can be displayed, and checking and comparing are facilitated;
step 303, adopting circles with different colors, and marking the plurality of evaluation results obtained in the step 200 above the K line graph respectively in a one-to-one correspondence manner according to time points to form a time axis tool for analyzing and judging securities risks, wherein the circles of the evaluation results of the same risk type are marked with the same color; only one evaluation result of the same risk type exists on the same day; when the mouse pointer moves on any circle mark, a message window pops up below the circle mark, and the message window displays the evaluation result corresponding to the circle mark and the detailed information of the corresponding event data; sequentially marking corresponding circles with different colors above the K line graph according to the sequence from top to bottom for a plurality of different evaluation results at the same time point;
step 304, identifying risk early warning on the K line graph: above the marker circle of the risk event, a time axis tool combines a risk discrimination model in the system to show the risk condition of the corresponding stock, and if the corresponding stock is identified as illegal risk by the system in the showing time range, a risk early warning is given by a symbol in a shape of a small flag on the time axis; for a risk early warning, a first flag marked on a starting date and time point is written with a starting word and a second flag marked on an ending date and time point is written with a stopping word, the colors of the first flag and the corresponding second flag are the same, so that a client can conveniently determine the time range in which any risk early warning exists, the colors of the flags of different risk early warnings are different, if one risk early warning is not ended currently, only the flag of the starting time is displayed, a mouse pointer is moved to any first flag or any second flag, and the starting time point or the ending time point of the corresponding risk early warning of the flag and the illegal type of the risk early warning can be seen;
the risk discrimination model is: collecting information type manipulated stocks with definite penalties and stocks without penalties judged by the certificated guild to form a training data set, regarding each trading day of each stock as a sample point, regarding samples in the stock manipulation period with definite penalties as positive samples, and regarding other samples as negative samples; comparing the time dimension and the space dimension of the multidimensional monitoring index (namely the mentioned risk event point) to form a discrimination dimension, and training a model based on an Xgboost integrated discrimination model. And applying the trained model to the stocks in the sample period of the whole market to obtain the probability of implementing the information type operation on each trading day of each stock, and if the probability is greater than a given threshold value, judging that the risk of implementing the information type operation is higher, and determining that the risk is higher. The method comprises the steps that the starting date and the ending date of information type operation are obtained through monitoring the early warning risk times in a period of time, and the first flag (the time point corresponding to the starting date) and the second flag (the time point corresponding to the ending date) are identified on a time axis in a form;
step 400, personalized customization of the time axis tool based on the business: on an event editing page of the time axis tool, a user can operate the display mode of the time axis tool and the data to be displayed based on business requirements, the user is allowed to modify the time axis tool into a required display style, the business use is facilitated, and the modified time axis tool is displayed only for a specified user;
on a visual display page of the event editing page, a major event fishbone graph (above the page) and a price graph (below the page) are displayed together by default; the upper left corner provides a switching button of a display mode, and a user can select to display one or both of the fishbone diagram and the price diagram. A button for exporting the time axis is provided at the upper right corner, and the pdf file of the time axis tool can be exported by clicking the button background for downloading and using by a user;
the event axis editing button at the upper right corner is clicked to edit the time axis event, and a user can add, display and operate the event; the user can specify the classification, time, event description and display color of the event which the user wants to display, add the event description to the database and display the event in subsequent operations. The user can select to show or hide different types of events which are interesting or not, and the system provides an event screening function, so that the user can more accurately locate the event which the user wants to select. Meanwhile, the user can delete the added events, but cannot delete the events calculated by the system. When the user selects the corresponding event, the user clicks and displays the event time axis to finish the modification of the time axis and display the event required by the user. The number of apparatuses and the scale of the process described herein are intended to simplify the description of the present invention. Applications, modifications and variations of the present invention will be apparent to those skilled in the art.
While embodiments of the invention have been described above, it is not limited to the applications set forth in the description and the embodiments, which are fully applicable in various fields of endeavor to which the invention pertains, and further modifications may readily be made by those skilled in the art, it being understood that the invention is not limited to the details shown and described herein without departing from the general concept defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (9)
1. The construction method of the time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment is characterized by comprising the following steps of: collecting relevant event data of a certain stock in a stock market, constructing an event database, classifying each event data according to risk types, analyzing each type of event data according to respective evaluation models to obtain evaluation results corresponding to each event data, and marking the evaluation results on corresponding time price points on a K-line graph of the corresponding stock, wherein the marking colors of the evaluation results of the same risk type are the same.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the risk types include a share pledge event, a price transaction event, and a interest bulletin event.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the evaluation model of the share-right pledge is:
appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, obtaining the record of the number of pledges of a certain shareholder on the day and all the records of the number of undequests in the past, and obtaining the details of the price transaction event of the trading day of the stock through calculation, wherein the specific calculation mode is as follows:
traversing all the records of the number of the stockholders which are not released before the trading date, and overlapping the number of all the records to obtain the total number of the mortgages which are not released on the current trading date of the stockholders, wherein the formula is as follows:
traversing all the pledge records of the shareholder on the day, and calculating the pledge rate x% of the pledge record of the shareholder, wherein the formula is as follows:
the evaluation result of the share pledge event is "x% for the share of the share pledge".
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the evaluation model of the price transaction event is:
1) appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, and acquiring closing price information C of 31 past trading days1，C2，...，C30，C31As input, ma30 and ma10 for the specified transaction day and the last transaction day on the specified transaction day are calculated as follows:
2) if ma10today＞ma30todayAnd ma10yesterday＜ma30yesterdayIf the stock price of the trading day is abnormal, outputting 'a mean ma10 day line breaks down a mean ma30 day line upwards, and the price trend changes from falling to rising'; if ma10today＜ma30todayAnd ma10yesterday＞ma30yesterdayIf the stock price of the trading day is abnormal, outputting 'a mean ma10 day line breaks down a mean ma30 day line, and the price trend changes from falling to rising'; otherwise output "" is output.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the evaluation model of interest-reporting events is:
1) collecting a large number of historical bulletin texts and label categories of artificial marks corresponding to the bulletin texts, and training a bulletin classification model by using a machine learning classification algorithm;
2) based on the investigation of historical bulletins, relevant financial field experts give out definition of favorable bulletins according to a large amount of documents and sufficient experience of the experts, and give out a bulletin type list corresponding to the favorable bulletins;
3) appointing a certain trading day of a certain stock, acquiring bulletin texts issued on the trading day, inputting any one of the bulletin texts into a bulletin classification model, giving out a bulletin type of the bulletin text by the bulletin classification model, judging whether the bulletin type exists in a bulletin type list, if so, taking the bulletin text as a favorable bulletin, and listing a bulletin title of the bulletin text in a bill of the favorable bulletin, otherwise, not listing the bulletin text; the bill of interest announcements is output as output information.
6. The method for constructing a timeline tool for securities risk analysis and judgment of claim 5, wherein the risk types further comprise bulk trade events, cattle break-in events, private recruitment events, stockholder loss events, and financial transaction events.
7. The method for constructing a tool on the timeline for securities risk analysis and judgment according to claim 6, characterized in that it comprises the following steps:
step S1, establishing stock price database: collecting stock price basic data on the stock market, constructing a stock price basic data base, and continuously updating every day;
step S2, event data analysis: collecting relevant event data of a certain stock in the stock market, constructing an event database, classifying each event data according to risk types, and analyzing each event data according to respective evaluation model to obtain an evaluation result corresponding to each event data;
step S3, combining the event data with the K-line graph:
step S31, creating a K-line graph: drawing a K line graph of a certain stock on a time axis according to the stock price basic database;
a step S32 of creating an n-day moving average line map (MA _ n) and a slab index line map on the K line map;
step S33, circles with different colors are adopted, the multiple evaluation results obtained in the step S2 are respectively marked above the K line graph in a one-to-one correspondence mode according to time points, and a time axis tool for securities risk analysis and judgment is formed, wherein the circles of the evaluation results of the same risk type are marked with the same color; only one evaluation result of the same risk type exists on the same day; when the mouse pointer moves over any circle mark, a message window pops up below the circle mark, and the message window displays detailed information of the evaluation result corresponding to the circle mark and corresponding event data.
8. The method as claimed in claim 7, wherein the circles of different colors are sequentially marked on the K-line graph from top to bottom for a plurality of different evaluation results at the same time point.
9. The method for constructing a timeline tool for securities risk analysis and judgment according to claim 7, wherein the stock price basic data in step S1 comprises stock price, related technical index, stock volume and stock index.
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| CN113297303A (en) * | 2021-06-22 | 2021-08-24 | 李佳旺 | Stock event-based time axis representation method |
| CN114820205A (en) * | 2022-06-02 | 2022-07-29 | 深圳市泰铼科技有限公司 | Timeline security asset management system based on artificial intelligence |
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