CN110728427A - Method for evaluating influence of policy on international airline opening of airline company - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for evaluating the influence of policies on the international airline opening of an airline company, and belongs to the technical field of calculation, calculation and counting. On the basis of constructing a new international airline set for an airline company in a certain annual interval, quantifying qualitative policy factors, converting the quantitative policy factors into variables capable of being taken into a metering economic model through mathematical expression, comprehensively considering characteristics of the airline company and competitive airlines of the airline company in a certain international airline, characteristics of airlines and airports and heterogeneity characteristics of the airline company, and adopting a Probit panel data method, so that the influence of the implementation of a sky open policy on the new international airline opening of the airline company is accurately evaluated, the defect that the traditional descriptive statistical method cannot separate the substantial influence and the influence degree of a single factor of the policy is overcome, and the defect that the traditional research rarely considers the influence of all service airlines and airports serving a certain regional market and cannot systematically evaluate the policy is overcome.
Description
Technical Field
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the influence of policies on international airline opening of an airline company, relates to the field of aviation transportation network structure design, and belongs to the technical field of calculation, calculation and counting.
Background
As one of the most stringent industries in global economy, international long-distance air transportation can only be achieved by signing a series of liberalized airline service agreements, sky opening agreements, national/regional airline market liberalization policies, and traditional bermuda airline service agreements. Thus, the issuance and implementation of a new policy aimed at promoting the liberalization of the international air transportation market will have a significant impact on many aspects of the airlines involved, such as daily frequency, number of airlines, number of passengers, employee employment and market competition. However, how to scientifically evaluate the influence of a certain policy on the key performance of an airline company such as airline operations, the substantial influence and the influence degree of a single factor of separation and quantification of the policy are difficult problems for policy makers.
The policy impact evaluation technology still adopts a simpler descriptive statistical method at present, namely taking the current year of policy implementation as a boundary, respectively collecting indexes before and after the policy implementation, calculating the relative and absolute variation of the indexes, and if the variation is a positive value, considering that the policy implementation has positive impact on the indexes, otherwise, considering that the policy implementation has negative impact; if the variation is large, it is considered that the policy enforcement has a large influence on the index, and otherwise, it is considered that the policy enforcement has a small influence or no influence. However, this approach ignores the "counter-fact" problem, i.e., whether the sign and magnitude of a change in an indicator is actually due to the implementation of a new policy, and if not, whether the resulting change will still exist? If the changes that are made are indeed due to new policy enforcement, where is the proportion of policy impact? The "counterfactual" problem arises because international air transport is susceptible to external factors such as global politics, economics, and epidemics on the one hand, and internal factors such as alliances, mergers, and mergers within the airline industry on the other hand. Therefore, the method can overcome the defects that the traditional descriptive statistical method cannot separate the substantive influence and the influence degree of the single factor of the policy, and simultaneously makes up the defect that the traditional research cannot systematically evaluate the influence of the policy because all service airlines and airports serving a certain regional market are less considered, and has higher theoretical significance, social benefit and practical value.
The Probit panel data modeling method combines the advantages of the Probit model and the panel data model, on one hand, the airline line opening decision of the airline depends on whether potential profits can be obtained after opening or not, and also depends on the possibility of opening the airline line, and the importance of the opening possibility is that the entry barrier of the airline line can reduce or even eliminate the entry motivation. The Probit model is used as a simplified model, can better estimate the airline line opening possibility of an airline company, takes whether the airline line is opened or not as a dependent variable, and comprehensively considers the influence of factors such as the characteristics of the airline company, the behaviors of competing airline companies, market characteristics and the like on the dependent variable. On the other hand, the panel data model combines the advantages of the cross section data model and the time series model, a plurality of time virtual variables are designed by collecting long time series of airline network data before policy implementation and after policy implementation, if the time virtual variables have positive influence in a statistical sense, the policy has positive influence on airline line opening possibility of an airline company, and otherwise, the policy has negative influence or no influence. Therefore, the invention aims to accurately evaluate the influence and the influence strength of the implementation of the international air transportation policy on the new international airline opening of the airline company by constructing the Probit panel data model.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for evaluating the influence of a policy on the opening of an international airline of an airline company aiming at the defects of the background technology, the qualitative policy factor is quantified on the basis of constructing a new international airline collection for the airline company in a certain annual interval, the qualitative policy factor is converted into a variable which can be incorporated into a metering economic model through a design time virtual variable, and the provided Probit panel data modeling method overcomes the defects that the traditional descriptive statistical method cannot separate the substantial influence and the influence degree of a single factor, namely the policy, and simultaneously makes up the defect that the traditional research cannot systematically evaluate the influence of the policy because all service airlines and airports serving a certain regional market are less considered.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme for realizing the aim of the invention:
a method for evaluating the influence of policy on the international airline opening of an airline company comprises the following 5 steps.
Step 1: acquiring the airline networks of all service airlines in a long continuous year before and after policy implementation respectively based on the implementation year of an international air transportation policy in a certain geographic area, and acquiring a newly opened airline set of all airlines by comparing the airline networks in the previous year and the next year to construct a dependent variable of a Probit model.
Step 2: qualitatively summarizing the characteristics of the international air transportation policy, quantifying qualitative policy factors, converting the qualitative policy factors into a self-variable set capable of being brought into a metering economic model through mathematical expression, wherein the influence of global aviation alliance cooperation is mainly considered, the new airline opening characteristics of each year under study are analyzed, the whole year is divided into a plurality of time intervals, the divided time intervals are used for representing the policy factor variables, and the policy factor variables are used as one of the self-variable sets of the metering economic model.
And step 3: in order to accurately evaluate the influence of the international air transportation policy variables constructed in the step 2 on the international airline opening of the airline company, other influencing factors need to be considered and controlled at the same time, and the influence of the three factors is mainly considered in the invention: (1) characteristics of the airline itself and its competing airlines on a certain international airline; (2) characteristics of airports at both ends of an international airline and a connecting airline; and (3) airline heterogeneity characteristics.
And 4, step 4: and (3) constructing a Probit panel data model based on the dependent variable in the step (1), the policy factor variable constructed in the step (2) and the control variable in the step (3), and estimating and checking the model by adopting a random effect panel data estimation method.
And 5: and (4) selecting an international air transportation market and an international air transportation policy issued and implemented by the international air transportation market based on the estimation result obtained in the step (4), and verifying the practical significance of the method for evaluating the influence of the policy on the international airline fulfillment of the airline company in the decision of the international airline fulfillment.
Further, in the method for evaluating the influence of policies on the international airline opening of the airline, the method for constructing the Probit model dependent variable in the step 1 is characterized in that an airline-year panel data structure is constructed for a newly developed international market, and the formula for calculating the sample volume of each year and the total sample volume of all the years is as follows:
st＝NNRt*NC*(T-t+1)，
wherein S is the total sample size, StNNR for the t-th sample sizetThe number of newly opened airlines in the T-th year is NC the total number of the airlines served, T is a research year identification value, the research years are sequentially arranged from morning to evening and are sequentially identified as 1,2, 3.
Further, in the method for evaluating the influence of the policy on the international airline management of the airline company, the method for quantifying the qualitative policy factors in the step 2 comprises the following steps: (1) when considering the cooperation influence of the global aviation alliance, the global aviation alliance is divided into four types, namely a starry sky type, a sky congruence type, an atlas alliance type and a situation that no alliance is added, and meanwhile, the alliance cooperation needs to consider the cooperation depth and whether an affiliation protocol or an anti-monopoly exemption situation exists; (2) the time interval is divided according to the number change of newly opened airlines on the airline company-airline scale and external social, economic and political factors. The formula for constructing the global aviation alliance and the time interval independent variable is as follows:
the formula for calculating Star is also suitable for the situation of Tianhe, atlas and no alliance, and the formula for calculating tr is also suitable for the situation of other time intervals.
Further, in the method for evaluating the influence of the policy on the international airline provision of the airline company, other three factors influencing the international airline provision of the airline company are mainly considered in the step 3:
(1) based on the characteristics of the airlines themselves and their competing airlines on a particular international route, the arguments considered include: the maximum value of the market share of an airport at the two ends of a certain airline company; whether an airline company simultaneously serves airports at both ends connected to a route; serving the number of competing airlines connecting airports at both ends of a particular airline.
(2) Based on the characteristics of airports at both ends of a certain international route and a connecting route, the considered independent variables include: airline distance, airline HHI value, airport type, travel destination, time of day restricted airport.
(3) The arguments considered include whether the airline is registered in a certain geographic area based on airline heterogeneity characteristics.
Further, in the method for evaluating the influence of the policy on the international airline opening of the airline company, the Probit panel data model formula constructed in the step 4 is as follows:
wherein D isritRepresenting an observable entry event for an r-th airline in the t year of the ith airline, if an airline operates at least 52 direct flights (at least 1 shift per week) for a flight in the current year and does not operate the flight in the previous year, Drit1, otherwise Drit＝0。α0Is an intercept term, αmIs an estimated coefficient of the argument.
By adopting the technical scheme, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) the method quantifies qualitative air transportation policy factors, and converts the qualitative air transportation policy factors into variables capable of being incorporated into a metering economic model through designing time virtual variables, so that the influence and the strength of the policy on the international airline opening of an airline company are evaluated.
(2) The proposed Probit panel data modeling method overcomes the defects of the single factor of the single influence and the influence degree that the traditional descriptive statistical method can not separate the policy, and simultaneously makes up the deficiency that the traditional research considers less the influence of all the service airlines and airports serving a certain regional market and can not systematically evaluate the policy.
(3) The method has practical value in the aspects of evaluating the influence of the international market relaxation control policy formulated by the civil aviation management department, particularly the airline line opening of the airline company and the construction of the international airline network.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of the present invention for assessing the impact of policies on airline international airline operations.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the following detailed description of the present invention is made with reference to the accompanying drawings and computing examples, and it should be understood that the examples described herein are only used for explaining the core principles of the present invention, but not for limiting the present invention.
Fig. 1 is a core principle of a modeling method for evaluating an influence of a policy on an international airline provisioning of an airline company, and an execution flow of the modeling method for evaluating an influence of a policy on the international airline provisioning of the airline company is generally described.
European-United states sky Open Agreement (OSA) signed in 2007 was selected as the international air transportation policy studied, and the basis for selecting the policy was: the protocol is the only policy aiming at promoting the international air transportation market to open in the world so far, and the research on the influence has reference significance for the development of the international air transportation market in China. The method for collecting the 3 years (2004-:
step 1: based on the implementation year of an international air transportation policy in a certain geographical area, the airline networks of all service airlines in a long continuous year before and after the policy is implemented are respectively obtained, and a new airline opening set of all the airlines is obtained by comparing the airline networks in the previous year and the next year, so that the dependent variable of the Probit model is constructed. The key of the method for constructing the Probit model dependent variable lies in constructing an airline-year panel data structure for a newly developed international market, and the formula for calculating the sample volume of each year and the total sample volume of all the years is as follows:
st＝NNRt*NC*(T-t+1)，
wherein S is the total sample size, StNNR for the t-th sample sizetThe number of newly opened airlines in the T-th year is NC the total number of the airlines served, T is a research year identification value, the research years are sequentially arranged from morning to evening and are sequentially identified as 1,2, 3.
The results of calculating the sample amount for each year and the total sample amount for all years are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 airline-year panel data construction on New market
Step 2: qualitatively summarizing the characteristics of the international air transportation policy, quantifying qualitative policy factors, and converting the qualitative policy factors into a self-variable set which can be incorporated into a metering economic model through mathematical expression. The influence of the cooperation of the global aviation alliance is mainly considered, the new airline opening characteristics of each year under study are analyzed, the whole year is divided into a plurality of time intervals, and the time intervals are used as independent variables. The method for quantifying the qualitative policy factors comprises the following steps: (1) when considering the cooperation influence of the global aviation alliance, the global aviation alliance is divided into four types, namely a starry sky type, a sky congruence type, an atlas alliance type and a situation that no alliance is added, and meanwhile, the alliance cooperation needs to consider the cooperation depth and whether an affiliation protocol or an anti-monopoly exemption situation exists; (2) the time interval is divided according to the number change of newly opened airlines on the airline company-airline scale and external social, economic and political factors. The formula for constructing the global aviation alliance and the time interval independent variable is as follows:
the formula for calculating Star is also suitable for the situation of Tianhe, atlas and no alliance, and the formula for calculating tr is also suitable for the situation of other time intervals.
The results of constructing policy variables are as follows:
global aviation alliance impact
Time virtual variable
The result of dividing the time interval is: (1)2004-2006 is an interval to show the opening condition of the international route before policy implementation; (2)2007-2008 is an interval to show the international airline opening condition before the global financial crisis occurs after the policy is implemented; (3) in 2009, the method is independently an interval, and represents the condition of opening an international airline when a global financial crisis occurs; (4)2010-2012 is an interval which represents the increasing period of the opening number of the international airline after the financial crisis; (5) each of 2013 and 2014 is an interval independently, and the number of opened international airlines is reduced and the years are increased; (6)2015 and 2016 were not taken into account because a newly opened international airline was only considered within the sample if it could guarantee at least 3 consecutive years of operation. Based on the divided time interval results, five time virtual variables of Y20072008, Y2009, Y20102012, Y2013, and Y2014 are set with Y20042006 as the comparison time interval, respectively.
Other time virtual variable settings are the same.
European-United states sky open policy Special airports
European-us sky opening policy, loundon sierslo (LHR) airport in england experienced very rapid development during 2007-2008, and therefore, considering it as a special airport, set variable LHR Y20072008.
And step 3: in order to accurately evaluate the influence of the international air transportation policy variables constructed in the step 2 on the international airline routing of the airline company and the substantial influence and influence degree of a single factor of the separation policy, other influencing factors need to be comprehensively considered and controlled, and the influence of the three factors is mainly considered in the invention:
(1) based on the characteristics of the airlines themselves and their competing airlines on a particular international route, the arguments considered include: the maximum value of the market share of an airport at the two ends of a certain airline company; whether an airline company simultaneously serves airports at both ends connected to a route; serving the number of competing airlines connecting airports at both ends of a particular airline.
(2) Based on the characteristics of airports at both ends of a certain international route and a connecting route, the considered independent variables include: airline distance, airline HHI value, airport type, travel destination, time of day restricted airport.
(3) The arguments considered include whether the airline is registered in a certain geographic area based on airline heterogeneity characteristics.
Other variable settings result as follows:
(1) based on the characteristics of the airlines themselves and their competing airlines on a particular international route, the arguments considered include: the maximum value MaxOwnShare of the airport market share of a certain airline company at the two ends of a connecting certain airline; whether a certain airline company simultaneously serves airports servBothEnds at two ends connected with a certain airline; the number of competing airlines serving airports connected to the ends of an airline, numrivalsbothnends.
(2) Based on the characteristics of airports at both ends of a certain international route and a connecting route, the considered independent variables include: distance of airline, HHI value of airline RouteHHI, HHI value of Airport AirportHHI, Airport Type Airport Type, Tourism destination, Airport SlotControl is restricted at any moment.
(3) The arguments considered include whether the airline USCarriers are registered in a certain geographic area based on airline heterogeneity characteristics.
And 4, step 4: and (3) constructing a Probit panel data model based on the dependent variable in the step (1) and the independent variable sets in the steps (2) and (3), and estimating and checking the model by adopting a random effect panel data estimation method. The formula of the constructed Probit panel data model is as follows:
wherein D isritRepresenting an observable entry event for an r-th airline in the t year of the ith airline, if an airline operates at least 52 direct flights (at least 1 shift per week) for a flight in the current year and does not operate the flight in the previous year, Drit1, otherwise Drit＝0。α0Is an intercept term, αmIs an estimated coefficient of the argument.
The constructed Probit panel data model results are:
in the above model, in order to alleviate the potential multiple collinearity problem caused by the strong correlation between the market structure variables and the dependent variables when estimating the Probit model, the relevant variables characterizing the market structure are taken as previous year values, the specific variables include MaxOwnShare, servebohnends, numrivalsbothnends, routehli and AirportHHI, and the other variables are taken as current year values.
And 5: and (4) selecting an international air transportation market and an international air transportation policy issued and implemented by the international air transportation market based on the estimation result obtained in the step (4), and verifying the practical significance of the modeling method for evaluating the influence of the policy on the international airline fulfillment of the airline company in the decision of the international airline fulfillment.
The model estimation results are shown in table 2:
table 2 Probit panel data model estimation results
Note: robust standard deviations are shown in parentheses. P < 0.01, p < 0.05, p < 0.1
As can be seen from Table 2, the results of the evaluation of the impact of the policy of the present invention on the international airline provisioning of the airline company are: (1) under the background of European-American sky open policy, three major alliances against monopoly exemption are obtained, namely, a new airline is opened in a newly developed international market with less possibility for the family of Tianhe, starry sky and atlas; (2) compared with 2004-2006 before the implementation of the European-United states sky open policy, the airline company has less possibility to open a new airline in the newly developed international market in all the five designed time intervals. It follows that, as a whole, the european-us sky opening policy has no positive impact on airline international airline operations.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of this invention and it should be noted that modifications can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the principle of the invention and these modifications should be considered as the protection scope of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. A method for evaluating the influence of policy on international airline regulations of airlines is characterized by that, obtaining the airline network of all the serving airlines before and after the policy to be evaluated is implemented, obtaining the new airline regulations set of all the airlines by comparing the airline network of the previous and the next year, constructing the Probit model dependent variable characterizing the airline-year, carrying out quantitative treatment to the qualitative policy factor to obtain the policy factor variable set of the economic model independent variable set, selecting the characteristic variable of the airlines themselves and the competitive airlines, the characteristic variable of the international airline and the characteristic variables of the airports at both ends of the connecting airline, and the heterogeneity characteristic variable of the airline to construct the control variable set influencing the international airline regulations, constructing the Probit panel data model according to the dependent variable of the Probit model, the set of the policy factor variables and the control variable set, and a random effect panel data estimation method is adopted for model estimation and inspection.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the expression of the Probit model dependent variable characterizing the airline-year is constructed as follows: st＝NNRt*NC*(T-t+1)，
S is the total sample size, StNNR for the t-th sample sizetThe number of newly opened airlines in the T-th year, NC is the total number of the served airlines, T is a research year identification value, the research years are sequentially arranged from morning to evening and are sequentially identified as 1,2,3, … and T, wherein T is the total number of years.
3. The method for evaluating the influence of policies on international airline operations of airlines according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the policy factor variable set of the economic model autovariate set by carrying out the quantitative processing on the qualitative policy factors comprises: dividing the global aviation alliance into a plurality of types, dividing time intervals according to the number change of newly opened airlines on the airline company-airlines scale and external social, economic and political factors, constructing an independent variable for representing whether the airline company corresponding to the sample belongs to the global aviation alliance and a time interval independent variable for representing whether the year corresponding to the sample falls into the divided intervals,
where Star is the Global aviation alliance argument, and tr is the time interval argument.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein considering the characteristic variables of the airline itself and its competing airlines on an international airline route comprises: the maximum value of the market share of the airport at the two ends of a certain airline is connected by a certain airline company, whether the airport at the two ends of the certain airline is simultaneously served by the certain airline company or not, and the number of competitive airlines which are used for serving the airport at the two ends of the certain airline.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein considering the characteristic variables of the airports at both ends of an international airline and the connecting airline comprises: airline distance, airline HHI value, airport type, travel destination, time of day restricted airport.
6. The method of claim 1 wherein the consideration of the airline heterogeneity characterization variable is whether the airline is registered in a geographic region.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the method of evaluating the impact of a policy on airline international airline operations is characterized by constructing a Probit panel data model by:
wherein,
for the observable entry event of the r-th airline in the t year of the ith airline, α0Is an intercept term, α1、α2、α3、α4The method comprises the following steps of respectively estimating coefficients of a policy factor set, a characteristic variable set of an airline company and a competitive airline company of the airline company in a certain country, a characteristic variable set of the airline line and an airport, and a heterogeneous characteristic variable set of the airline company.
8. A computer device, comprising: memory, processor and computer program stored on the memory and executed on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method of assessing the impact of a policy on airline international airline operations as recited in claim 1 when executing the program.
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