CN110599244A - Power grid investment planning budget system based on system dynamics - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a power grid investment planning budget system based on system dynamics, which comprises an electric quantity demand module, an investment planning decision module, a power transmission and distribution price module and a power grid profit module; the electric quantity demand module predicts the future electric quantity demand of the power grid; the investment planning decision module predicts the future planned investment and the actual investment of the power grid; the power transmission and distribution price module determines the annual asset increment of a future power grid, predicts the power transmission and distribution price and determines the power transmission and distribution profit; the power grid profit module measures and calculates the bottom-guaranteed profit and the power selling profit of the power grid so as to obtain the total profit of the power grid; the invention can comprehensively consider the incidence relation among the electric quantity demand, the investment planning, the power grid profit and the investment capacity under the power transmission and distribution price reformation environment.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of investment decision of power grid companies, and particularly relates to a power grid investment planning and budget system based on system dynamics.
Background
At present, the power system innovation is deeply influencing the functional positioning and profit modes of power grid enterprises, and provides new higher requirements for the internal management of the power grid enterprises. Under the power transmission and distribution price reformation environment, the power grid company needs to consider the changes of investment guidance and investment benefits under the power transmission and distribution price reformation trend, the operation mode and the profit mode of a power grid enterprise are changed, the operation of the power grid enterprise needs to be more refined, and the cost management is emphasized more.
With the change of the income of the power grid from purchase and sale price difference to 'permitted cost + reasonable income', the operation mode of the power grid is changed greatly, and the investment of the power grid is deeply influenced. How a power grid enterprise adapts to a new environment of power system reformation needs to change an enterprise operation concept, analyze reasonable operation cost and reasonable effective assets under the condition of continuous reformation of power transmission and distribution prices, and make clear project investment optimization decisions under the constraints of investment capacity and capital and the like.
Therefore, based on the problems, the power grid investment planning and budget system based on the system dynamics comprehensively considering the incidence relation among the electric quantity demand, the investment planning, the power grid profit and the investment capacity under the power transmission and distribution price reformation environment has important practical significance.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide a power grid investment planning and budgeting system based on system dynamics, which comprehensively considers the incidence relation among the electric quantity demand, the investment planning, the power grid profit and the investment capacity under the power transmission and distribution price reformation environment.
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
the power grid investment planning budget system based on system dynamics comprises an electric quantity demand module, an investment planning decision module, a power transmission and distribution price module and a power grid profit module; the electric quantity demand module predicts the future electric quantity demand of the power grid; the investment planning decision module predicts the future planned investment and the actual investment of the power grid; the power transmission and distribution price module determines the annual asset increment of a future power grid, predicts the power transmission and distribution price and determines the power transmission and distribution profit; the power grid profit module measures and calculates the bottom-guaranteed profit and the power selling profit of the power grid so as to obtain the total profit of the power grid;
the electric quantity demand comprises a first electric quantity, a second electric quantity, a third electric quantity and a resident electric quantity according to the industry, and each part of electric quantity consists of a stock electric quantity and an increment electric quantity; the total electric quantity calculation method comprises the following steps:
Qtot＝Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4；
Q1＝(Linc,1+Lsto,1)×Hi，Q2j＝(Linc,2i+Lsto,2i′)×Hi，Q3j＝(Linc,3i+Lsto,3i′)×Hi， Q4＝(Linc,4+Lsto,4)×Hi；
Lsto,2i′＝Lsto,2i×rci，Lsto,3i′＝Lsto,3i×rci；
in the formula, QtotRepresents the total quantity of electricity, Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4Respectively representing first electricity generation quantity, second electricity generation quantity, third electricity generation quantity and resident electricity quantity; i denotes different voltage levels, HiNumber of hours of maximum load utilization, L, representing different voltage levelsinc,1、Linc,2i、Linc,3i、Linc,4Respectively showing the first-yield load stock, the second-yield load stock, the third-yield load stock and the resident load stock, Lsto,1、Lsto,2i′、Lsto,3i′、Lsto,4Respectively representing a first-yield load increment, a second-yield plan load increment, a third-yield plan load increment and a resident load increment; l issto,2i、Lsto,3iRespectively representing the load increment of two productions and the load increment of three productions, rciIncremental distribution network competition coefficients representing different voltage levels;
the investment planning decision module establishes a system dynamics model among the planned investment capacity, the planned asset increment of the power grid enterprise and the actual planned investment capacity, wherein the planned investment capacity is subdivided by industry and voltage grades according to the actual situation, the investment capacity is restricted by the planned investment capacity, and the actual planned investment capacity is finally obtained;
the calculation method of the power transmission and distribution price and the power transmission and distribution profit comprises the following steps:
Lt＝∑(Qt,j×(Pt,j-Ct,j))；
Iall＝Call+Rall+T，Call＝A×(rdep+rope+rmar)，Rall＝A×rall，T＝Rall×r；
wherein L istFor profit of transmission and distribution, Qt,j、Pt,j、Ct,jRespectively for different voltage levels, transmission and distribution electric quantity, approved transmission and distribution electric price and unit cost, IallGranting revenue for different voltage classes, CallPermitting costs for different voltage classes, RallGranting revenue for different voltage classes, T is a price tax, A is a valid asset that can be billed to increase revenue, rdep、rope、rmarRespectively depreciation fee, operation maintenance fee, marketing service fee rallTo allow for rate of return, QproThe power transmission and distribution amount of the provincial power grid public network calculated in the previous round is calculated, and r is the income tax of the enterprise;
the calculation formula of the total profit of the power grid is as follows:
Ltot＝Lt+Ls1+Ls2
in the formula, LtotTo total profit, LtFor profit on transmission and distribution, Ls1To secure profit, Ls2To profit from electricity sales.
Further, the calculation formula of the base guarantee profit is as follows:
Ls1＝Ls11+Ls12+Ls13，；
Ls11＝Q1×(Ps,1-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)，Ls12＝Q2×(Ps,2-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)；
Ls13＝(Q3+Q4)×(Ps,3-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)
wherein L iss1To secure profit, Ls11For the first industry to sell electricity profit, Ls12Profit of electricity sale for residents, Ls13For bottom profit, Q1Selling electricity for the first industry, Ps,1For the first industry catalog, Q2Selling electricity for the resident industry, Ps,2The electricity price is the resident industry catalog; q3Is the amount of outstanding transaction electricity, Q4For selling electricity without fulfilling the amount of electricity, Ps,3Price of the list for incomplete transactions, Ct,unitUnit cost of power transmission and distribution, Cpur,aveAverage electricity purchase cost;
the calculation formula of the electricity selling profit is as follows:
Ls2＝∑Ps,i,j×Qs,i,j；Ps,i,j＝Pt,i,j+Pcon；Qs,i,j＝Qi,j×(rcom+rdis+rsti)；
Qi,j＝(linc,i,j+lsto,i,j)′Hj；
in the formula: l iss2For the profit of electricity sale, i represents different industries, i-2, 3, j represents different voltage classes, Ps,i,jFor different voltage classes of different industries, Pt,i,jFor different voltage classes of different industries, PconFor negotiating purchase price, Qs,i,jFor actual sale of electricity, Q, in different voltage classes for different industriesi,jPlanning the electricity sales for different voltage levels of different industries, rcomTo the power selling side competition coefficient, rdisDistributed power generation coefficient rstiDirect supply coefficient for large users,/inc,i,jLoad increments for different voltage classes of different industries,/sto,i,jFor load stocks of different voltage classes in different industries, HjThe number of hours of maximum load utilization.
The invention has the advantages and positive effects that:
the invention adopts the system dynamics theory, comprehensively considers the interrelation between the electric quantity demand and the transmission and distribution price level, the power grid profit and the investment capacity under the transmission and distribution price reformation environment, and constructs a prediction system related to the power grid investment planning; the method is helpful for identifying the main control factors of power grid investment, determining the interaction mechanism between the power transmission and distribution price pricing mechanism and the power grid investment, guiding a power grid company to reasonably arrange investment funds, optimizing resource allocation, better adapting to power transmission and distribution price reformation and improving the comprehensive benefits of the power grid.
Drawings
The technical solutions of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, but it should be understood that these drawings are designed for illustrative purposes only and thus do not limit the scope of the present invention. Furthermore, unless otherwise indicated, the drawings are intended to be illustrative of the structural configurations described herein and are not necessarily drawn to scale.
Fig. 1 is a diagram of a model structure of an electric quantity demand module according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a model structure of an investment requirement module provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an investment requirement model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a diagram of a power transmission and distribution price checking module provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a profit module of a power grid according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a model of bottom-protected profit model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a block diagram of a model of profit model for selling electricity according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a comparison of projected investment and investment capacity provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 9 is a diagram of an actual investment situation of a power grid according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a graph of simulated prediction results of power transmission and distribution rates at different voltage levels according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 11 is a comparison graph of simulated profit results provided by embodiments of the present invention.
Detailed Description
First, it should be noted that the specific structures, features, advantages, etc. of the present invention will be specifically described below by way of example, but all the descriptions are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as limiting the present invention in any way. Furthermore, any individual technical features described or implicit in the embodiments mentioned herein may still be continued in any combination or subtraction between these technical features (or their equivalents) to obtain still further embodiments of the invention that may not be mentioned directly herein.
It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments in the present application may be combined with each other without conflict.
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to fig. 1 to 11.
The power grid investment planning budget system based on system dynamics comprises an electric quantity demand module, an investment planning decision module, a power transmission and distribution price module and a power grid profit module; the electric quantity demand module predicts the future electric quantity demand of the power grid; the investment planning decision module predicts the future planned investment and the actual investment of the power grid; the power transmission and distribution price module determines the annual asset increment of a future power grid, predicts the power transmission and distribution price and determines the power transmission and distribution profit; the power grid profit module measures and calculates the bottom-guaranteed profit and the power selling profit of the power grid so as to obtain the total profit of the power grid;
the electric quantity demand comprises a first electric quantity, a second electric quantity, a third electric quantity and a resident electric quantity according to the industry, and each part of electric quantity consists of a stock electric quantity and an increment electric quantity; for the calculation of the electric quantities of different voltage grades in the second industry and the third industry, firstly, the load condition is determined through the load stock and the planned increment of the load after the competition of the increment distribution network is considered, and then the electric quantities of different voltage grades are determined by considering the maximum load utilization hours. The specific model variable relationship is shown in fig. 1.
For the load increment of the second industry and the third industry, the incremental distribution network releasing business is definitely proposed in the electric power system reform file, so that social capital is allowed to enter and participate in market competition. The power marketization innovation has little impact on the inventory part, with its main impact being concentrated on the incremental part. The incremental load of large industries, general industries and businesses with high profit levels in the power consumer category may become the focus of competition among various classes of subjects. For the grid company, its future power growth will be divided into two parts: the natural growth of the existing inventory area and the incremental addition of competitive power to the distribution grid area. The latter is influenced by market competition environment, and the power grid company needs to compete with other market subjects. Therefore, the load increment of the second industry and the third industry also needs to consider the incremental distribution network competition factor.
The total electric quantity calculation method comprises the following steps:
Qtot＝Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4；
Q1＝(Linc,1+Lsto,1)×Hi，Q2j＝(Linc,2i+Lsto,2i′)×Hi，Q3j＝(Linc,3i+Lsto,3i′)×Hi， Q4＝(Linc,4+Lsto,4)×Hi；
Lsto,2i′＝Lsto,2i×rci，Lsto,3i′＝Lsto,3i×rci。
in the formula, QtotRepresents the total quantity of electricity, Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4Respectively representing first electricity generation quantity, second electricity generation quantity, third electricity generation quantity and resident electricity quantity; i denotes different voltage levels, HiNumber of hours of maximum load utilization, L, representing different voltage levelsinc,1、Linc,2i、Linc,3i、Linc,4Respectively showing the first-yield load stock, the second-yield load stock, the third-yield load stock and the resident load stock, Lsto,1、Lsto,2i′、Lsto,3i′、Lsto,4Respectively representing a first-yield load increment, a second-yield plan load increment, a third-yield plan load increment and a resident load increment; l issto,2i、Lsto,3iRespectively representing the load increment of two productions and the load increment of three productions, rciIncremental distribution network competition coefficients representing different voltage levels;
the investment planning decision module establishes a system dynamics model among the planned investment capacity, the planned asset increment of the power grid enterprise and the actual planned investment capacity, wherein the planned investment capacity is subdivided by industry and voltage grades according to the actual situation, the investment capacity is restricted by the planned investment capacity, and the actual planned investment capacity is finally obtained; the system dynamics flow diagram is 2 and 3:
as shown in fig. 2, firstly, the planned investment capacity of the power grid company is obtained according to the planned load increment obtained in the electric quantity prediction module, and secondly, the planned investment amount of each voltage class of each industry is obtained by investing with the unit capacity of each voltage class, so as to obtain the actual investment amount of the power grid.
As shown in fig. 3, the power grid enterprise as a utility unit needs to satisfy the increase of economic benefits of the enterprise, and also needs to realize social responsibility for promoting innovation and benefiting residents. The module takes a social principle as a first principle and preferentially meets the investment of residents and first industrial projects; and (4) comprehensively considering the principles of overall optimization and benefit maximization aiming at the rest investment amount, classifying according to the types of investment projects, determining the contribution degrees of different types of projects to the power grid development, and reasonably distributing the investment funds. When the investment decision of the power distribution network is carried out, when the available investment fund of the power grid is larger than the planned investment amount, the requirement of planning and construction can be met; however, the available investment sometimes fails to meet planning requirements, requiring decisions to be made for limited funds. And selecting according to the priority order of the planned construction projects to obtain an actual investment capacity plan. The power grid company needs to bear social responsibility for guaranteeing power supply, so that the model preferentially meets the construction requirements of resident life and a power generation and utilization project; and secondly, considering the economic benefit of project implementation, carrying out different sequences on project investment of different voltage levels as different situation analysis, and obtaining a result through simulation. And comparing key indexes such as power grid profit and the like to finally obtain the optimal project investment sequence, namely making a final investment decision according to the principle that profit return of unit investment is from large to small.
According to the load demand, the power grid company carries out investment planning every year, the construction investment influences the assets of the power grid, the requirement of power transmission and distribution price reformation on power transmission and distribution price check and determination of different voltage levels is separately checked and determined according to the principle of permissible cost plus reasonable income, and the income and cost of a newly added asset project of the power grid influences the level of the power transmission and distribution price. However, due to government regulations on the price of electricity for transmission and distribution, the adjustment of the price of electricity for transmission and distribution does not change every year, but exhibits periodic characteristics. The dynamic flow diagram of the power transmission and distribution price module system is 4:
the calculation method of the power transmission and distribution price and the power transmission and distribution profit comprises the following steps:
Lt＝∑(Qt,j×(Pt,j-Ct,j))；
Iall＝Call+Rall+T，Call＝A×(rdep+rope+rmar)，Rall＝A×rall，T＝Rall×r；
wherein L istFor profit of transmission and distribution, Qt,j、Pt,j、Ct,jRespectively for different voltage levels, transmission and distribution electric quantity, approved transmission and distribution electric price and unit cost, IallGranting revenue for different voltage classes, CallPermitting costs for different voltage classes, RallGranting revenue for different voltage classes, T is a price tax, A is a valid asset that can be billed to increase revenue, rdep、rope、rmarRespectively depreciation fee, operation maintenance fee, marketing service fee rallTo allow for rate of return, QproThe power transmission and distribution amount of the provincial power grid public network calculated in the previous round is calculated, and r is the income tax of the enterprise;
after the innovation of the power system, the total profit of a power grid company can be composed of three parts: firstly, the profit of power transmission and distribution is realized, the power grid is not taken as a power transaction subject any more, but appears in the role of a power transmission and distribution service provider, and only the net fee is collected; secondly, the bottom-guaranteed profit is realized, and the power grid needs to bear the bottom-guaranteed power supply service of a power supply business area of the power grid, and mainly aims at first-yield agriculture and residential users; and thirdly, the electricity selling profits of the established electricity selling company are generated, under the new situation, part of electricity can be robbed by other electricity selling main bodies due to competition, the electricity selling company established by the power grid company can directly negotiate the electricity purchasing price with a power plant, a plurality of electricity selling companies enter the electricity selling side, the electricity selling company has an independent pricing right, and the electricity selling price can be determined according to the self operating condition and the electricity price level of a competitor.
The influence of the practical investment situation of the power grid company in the last year is mainly divided into two parts: firstly, the price of power transmission and distribution is influenced by converting into fixed assets; and secondly, the transfer electric quantity is influenced by meeting and improving the power supply capacity. The annual profit is ultimately affected by the influence of the two components. And the realization of the profit of the current year has a constraint influence on the investment plan of the next year.
The actual investment of each year is converted into fixed assets, so that the approval of the permitted income of a power grid company is influenced; and the approved cost is influenced through the depreciation of the fixed assets, so that the power transmission and distribution price is influenced. It can be seen that annual investment is ultimately recovered through power grid transmission and distribution profit. However, the center of the electric power marketing reform lies in strictly controlling the profit of the power grid, so the actual investment of the power grid company cannot be reflected in the power transmission and distribution price of each year in consideration of government control behaviors; but gradually reflects the monitoring period to the next monitoring period through accumulation of a certain monitoring period. The recovery of its investment also presents a certain periodic delay.
The calculation formula of the total profit of the power grid is as follows:
Ltot＝Lt+Ls1+Ls2
in the formula, LtotTo total profit, LtFor profit on transmission and distribution, Ls1To secure profit, Ls2To profit from electricity sales.
The system dynamics-based power grid investment planning budgeting system of claim 1, wherein: the calculation formula of the bottom-protected profit is as follows:
Ls1＝Ls11+Ls12+Ls13，；
Ls11＝Q1×(Ps,1-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)，Ls12＝Q2×(Ps,2-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)；
Ls13＝(Q3+Q4)×(Ps,3-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)；
wherein L iss1To secure profit, Ls11For the first industry to sell electricity profit, Ls12Profit of electricity sale for residents, Ls13For bottom profit, Q1Selling electricity for the first industry, Ps,1For the first industry catalog, Q2Selling electricity for the resident industry, Ps,2The electricity price is the resident industry catalog; q3Is the amount of outstanding transaction electricity, Q4For selling electricity without fulfilling the amount of electricity, Ps,3Price of the list for incomplete transactions, Ct,unitUnit cost of power transmission and distribution, Cpur,aveThe average electricity purchasing cost is obtained.
The calculation formula of the electricity selling profit is as follows:
Ls2＝∑Ps,i,j×Qs,i,j；Ps,i,j＝Pt,i,j+Pcon；Qs,i,j＝Qi,j×(rcom+rdis+rsti)；
Qi,j＝(linc,i,j+lsto,i,j)′Hj；
in the formula: l iss2For the profit of electricity sale, i represents different industries, i-2, 3, j represents different voltage classes, Ps,i,jFor different voltage classes of different industries, Pt,i,jFor different voltage classes of different industries, PconFor negotiating purchase price, Qs,i,jFor actual sale of electricity, Q, in different voltage classes for different industriesi,jPlanning the electricity sales for different voltage levels of different industries, rcomTo the power selling side competition coefficient, rdisDistributed power generation coefficient rstiDirect supply coefficient for large users,/inc,i,jLoad increments for different voltage classes of different industries,/sto,i,jFor load stocks of different voltage classes in different industries, HjThe number of hours of maximum load utilization.
The power grid investment planning budget system based on system dynamics of the invention is used for predicting the planning investment situation of the future power grid company:
the basic data mainly come from related report data of electric power companies in Tianjin City, related reference documents and reasonable estimation based on the current situation of the power grid in Tianjin City.
(1) Basic data
In the electric quantity demand module, the main input data is the future electric quantity change condition of each voltage class, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 Power load forecast data
Other main input parameter data are shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 other input data
The model calculates future investment requirements according to an investment plan, calculates investment capacity according to profit conditions and other capital sources, takes the investment capacity as constraint, and carries out investment decision by comprehensively considering a social principle and a comprehensive benefit maximum principle; determining newly-added power grid assets according to actual investment conditions and government supervision, further accounting permitted income, and determining power transmission and distribution prices of different voltage grades; and finally, accounting the profit level of the power grid, and determining the investment capacity of the next year by combining other capital sources.
(2) Result of operation
The future power grid planning scheme proposed by the power grid company based on load prediction is often restricted by the self investment capacity. Particularly, under the background of market reformation of the current electric power, a newly-added distribution network is released, and the distribution network planning shows the trend of market competition, which influences the scheme planning of a power grid company; and the power transmission and distribution price is reformed, so that the profit mode of the power grid company is changed, and the investment capacity of the power grid company is influenced.
From fig. 8, after considering the power transmission and distribution price improvement, the power grid company cannot meet the investment requirement at the initial investment capacity. The reason for this is that the profitability mode of the power grid company is changed after the power transmission and distribution price is reformed, the future profit level is strictly regulated by the government, and the investment capacity of the power grid is directly influenced by the profit level; economic development of Tianjin is currently in a fast growing period, and power demand appears to increase faster, thereby causing short-term capital shortage. In the middle and later stages, economic development of Tianjin city is gradually saturated, the power demand is gradually increased and slowed down, the investment demand is gradually reduced, and the investment capacity gradually meets the investment demand. Therefore, considering the background of electric power market reform, the actual investment capacity under the self-investment capacity constraint is shown in fig. 9:
under the background of electric power market reformation, a power grid company is proposed to reform the power transmission and distribution price, change the profit mode of the traditional purchase and sale price difference of the power grid into a main profit mode of collecting electric quantity transfer cost. In this case, separate verification of the transmission and distribution power rates is required. By using the electricity price verification method issued by the current development and modification commission, simulation verification is performed in four voltage levels, and the simulation result of the model is shown in fig. 10:
in consideration of government regulation conditions for the transmission and distribution electricity price, the principle of changing from three years to one year is adopted in the process of checking the transmission and distribution electricity price, namely the transmission and distribution electricity price is not changed within three years once checked. As can be seen from the figure, the transmission and distribution power price level is gradually reduced from low voltage to high voltage, because the higher the voltage level, the lower the required construction investment, and the lower the cost. From empirical analysis, the transmission and distribution price shows a gradual decline trend due to the advance of the power grid investment as time goes on.
In the model, the verification of the transmission and distribution power price is closely related to the actual investment situation of different voltage levels. Investment decisions of different voltage levels directly influence the check and determination of the power transmission and distribution prices of different power transmission and distribution prices; the power transmission and distribution profit level is directly influenced by the power transmission and distribution price. The profit sources of the power grid company after the power transmission and distribution price is reformed are divided into three parts: the simulation results of the power transmission and distribution profit, the power selling profit and the base guarantee profit are as shown in fig. 11:
as can be seen from fig. 11, after the power transmission and distribution price is reformed, the power transmission and distribution price is a major part and is stable in the profit source of the power grid company. The profit level of the transmission and distribution price will directly affect the investment capacity of the next year. And (4) optimizing the investment allocation proportion among different project categories according to limited investment capacity constraint by combining the investment requirements of different project categories, and making investment decisions. In conclusion, the analysis shows that the power transmission and distribution price and the investment are mutually fed back and restricted, and the model combines the power transmission and distribution price and the investment to perform linkage analysis, thereby being beneficial to project investment decision management optimization.
The present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above examples, but the description is only for the preferred examples of the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. All equivalent changes and modifications made within the scope of the present invention shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. The power grid investment planning budget system based on system dynamics is characterized in that: the system comprises an electric quantity demand module, an investment planning decision module, a power transmission and distribution price module and a power grid profit module; the electric quantity demand module predicts the future electric quantity demand of the power grid; the investment planning decision module predicts the future planned investment and the actual investment of the power grid; the power transmission and distribution price module determines the annual asset increment of a future power grid, predicts the power transmission and distribution price and determines the power transmission and distribution profit; the power grid profit module measures and calculates the bottom-guaranteed profit and the power selling profit of the power grid so as to obtain the total profit of the power grid;
the electric quantity demand comprises a first electric quantity, a second electric quantity, a third electric quantity and a resident electric quantity according to the industry, and each part of electric quantity consists of a stock electric quantity and an increment electric quantity; the total electric quantity calculation method comprises the following steps:
Qtot＝Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4；
Q1＝(Linc,1+Lsto,1)×Hi，Q2j＝(Linc,2i+Lsto,2i′)×Hi，Q3j＝(Linc,3i+Lsto,3i′)×Hi，Q4＝(Linc,4+Lsto,4)×Hi；
Lsto,2i′＝Lsto,2i×rci，Lsto,3i′＝Lsto,3i×rci；
in the formula, QtotRepresents the total quantity of electricity, Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4Respectively representing first electricity generation quantity, second electricity generation quantity, third electricity generation quantity and resident electricity quantity; i denotes different voltage levels, HiNumber of hours of maximum load utilization, L, representing different voltage levelsinc,1、Linc,2i、Linc,3i、Linc,4Respectively showing the first-yield load stock, the second-yield load stock, the third-yield load stock and the resident load stock, Lsto,1、Lsto,2i′、Lsto,3i′、Lsto,4Respectively representing a first-yield load increment, a second-yield plan load increment, a third-yield plan load increment and a resident load increment; l issto,2i、Lsto,3iRespectively representing the load increment of two productions and the load increment of three productions, rciIncremental distribution network competition coefficients representing different voltage levels;
the investment planning decision module establishes a system dynamics model among the planned investment capacity, the planned asset increment of the power grid enterprise and the actual planned investment capacity, wherein the planned investment capacity is subdivided by industry and voltage grades according to the actual situation, the investment capacity is restricted by the planned investment capacity, and the actual planned investment capacity is finally obtained;
the calculation method of the power transmission and distribution price and the power transmission and distribution profit comprises the following steps:
Lt＝∑(Qt,j×(Pt,j-Ct,j))；
Iall＝Call+Rall+T，Call＝A×(rdep+rope+rmar)，Rall＝A×rall，T＝Rall×r；
wherein L istFor profit of transmission and distribution, Qt,j、Pt,j、Ct,jRespectively for different voltage levels, transmission and distribution electric quantity, approved transmission and distribution electric price and unit cost, IallGranting revenue for different voltage classes, CallPermitting costs for different voltage classes, RallGranting revenue for different voltage classes, T is a price tax, A is a valid asset that can be billed to increase revenue, rdep、rope、rmarRespectively depreciation fee, operation maintenance fee, marketing service fee rallTo allow for rate of return, QproThe power transmission and distribution amount of the provincial power grid public network calculated in the previous round is calculated, and r is the income tax of the enterprise;
the calculation formula of the total profit of the power grid is as follows:
Ltot＝Lt+Ls1+Ls2
in the formula, LtotTo total profit, LtFor profit on transmission and distribution, Ls1To secure profit, Ls2To profit from electricity sales.
2. The system dynamics-based power grid investment planning budgeting system of claim 1, wherein: the calculation formula of the bottom-protected profit is as follows:
Ls1＝Ls11+Ls12+Ls13，；
Ls11＝Q1×(Ps,1-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)，Ls12＝Q2×(Ps,2-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)；
Ls13＝(Q3+Q4)×(Ps,3-Ct,unit-Cpur,ave)
wherein L iss1Make a profit at the bottom of，Ls11For the first industry to sell electricity profit, Ls12Profit of electricity sale for residents, Ls13For bottom profit, Q1Selling electricity for the first industry, Ps,1For the first industry catalog, Q2Selling electricity for the resident industry, Ps,2The electricity price is the resident industry catalog; q3Is the amount of outstanding transaction electricity, Q4For selling electricity without fulfilling the amount of electricity, Ps,3Price of the list for incomplete transactions, Ct,unitUnit cost of power transmission and distribution, Cpur,aveAverage electricity purchase cost;
the calculation formula of the electricity selling profit is as follows:
Ls2＝∑Ps,i,j×Qs,i,j；Ps,i,j＝Pt,i,j+Pcon；Qs,i,j＝Qi,j×(rcom+rdis+rsti)；
Qi,j＝(linc,i,j+lsto,i,j)′Hj；
in the formula: l iss2For the profit of electricity sale, i represents different industries, i-2, 3, j represents different voltage classes, Ps,i,jFor different voltage classes of different industries, Pt,i,jFor different voltage classes of different industries, PconFor negotiating purchase price, Qs,i,jFor actual sale of electricity, Q, in different voltage classes for different industriesi,jPlanning the electricity sales for different voltage levels of different industries, rcomTo the power selling side competition coefficient, rdisDistributed power generation coefficient rstiDirect supply coefficient for large users,/inc,i,jLoad increments for different voltage classes of different industries,/sto,i,jFor load stocks of different voltage classes in different industries, HjThe number of hours of maximum load utilization.
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Application publication date: 20191220 |