CN110599011A - Aqueduct safety evaluation method, system and storage medium based on improved AHP-FCE method - Google Patents

Aqueduct safety evaluation method, system and storage medium based on improved AHP-FCE method Download PDF

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CN110599011A
CN110599011A CN201910805795.6A CN201910805795A CN110599011A CN 110599011 A CN110599011 A CN 110599011A CN 201910805795 A CN201910805795 A CN 201910805795A CN 110599011 A CN110599011 A CN 110599011A
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aqueduct
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罗日洪
黄锦林
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Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower
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Abstract

The invention discloses a flume safety evaluation method, a system and a storage medium based on an improved AHP-FCE method, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring standard layer indexes and evaluation values of index layer indexes of a plurality of groups of aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation systems; respectively calculating the weight of the index of the criterion layer and the weight of the index layer according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value; acquiring the membership degree of the index layer index determined based on the state division standard, and calculating the membership degree of the index layer index of the criterion layer and the target layer membership degree of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system according to the full-optimization Fuzzy operator in a layering manner; and evaluating the safety and/or danger level of the aqueduct by adopting a weighted integration method according to the membership degree of the target layer. The invention ensures that the relationship among all safety influence elements is more reasonable, and various influence factors are comprehensively considered, so that the actual situation of the aqueduct can be reflected better, the directly obtained evaluation result is closer to the actual engineering safety identification result, and the operability is strong.

Description

Aqueduct safety evaluation method, system and storage medium based on improved AHP-FCE method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of aqueduct safety evaluation, in particular to an aqueduct safety evaluation method and system based on an improved AHP-FCE method, and a storage medium.
Background
In order to solve the problem of water shortage and optimize water resource allocation, a large number of irrigation and water supply channel systems are built in China since the 50 th century, and a structural form of aqueducts is applied in a large number to cross rivers, channels, brooks, depressions, roads and buildings for water delivery. Before the 80 s in the 20 th century, most of the aqueducts are small and medium-sized aqueducts which are built, the flow and the span are small, and due to the lack of scientific guidance and poor construction quality of the design and the comprehensive action of various human factors and natural factors after the aqueducts are operated, most of the aqueducts have the problem of aging diseases of different degrees. The causes of the damage of the 18 domestic aqueducts counted by Ksperzeri and the like are earthquake, wind-induced damage, water damage, durability problems, overload damage, unreasonable design, poor construction quality and the like.
In the aspect of aqueduct safety evaluation standard formulation, no relevant national or industrial standard exists so far, only the provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang issue local standards for aqueduct safety evaluation, and both determine the type of the aqueduct according to single evaluation levels such as quality, waterpower, foundation bearing, structural safety and the like by referring to reservoir dam safety evaluation guide (SL 258-. The existing aqueduct evaluation standard does not consider the interaction and close connection among all safety influence elements, and has the problem that some influence factors are easy to ignore; meanwhile, the current research method aiming at the safety state of the aqueduct cannot directly determine the safety level of the aqueduct, is not closely related to the safety relevant specifications of the existing aqueduct, and is difficult to operate and implement.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, an object of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide a method, a system, and a storage medium for evaluating aqueduct security based on an improved AHP-FCE method. The invention ensures that the relationship among all safety influence elements is more reasonable, and various influence factors are comprehensively considered, so that the actual situation of the aqueduct can be reflected better, the directly obtained evaluation result is closer to the actual engineering safety identification result, and the operability is strong.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an improved AHP-FCE method-based aqueduct safety evaluation method, including the following steps:
acquiring a criterion layer index and an evaluation value of an index layer index of an aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system; the rating comprises a rating based on a natural index scale;
respectively calculating the weight of the index of the criterion layer and the weight of the index layer according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value;
acquiring the membership degree of the index layer index determined based on the state division standard, and calculating the membership degree of the index layer index of the criterion layer and the target layer membership degree of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system according to the full-optimization Fuzzy operator in a layering manner;
and evaluating the safety and/or danger level of the aqueduct by adopting a weighted integration method according to the membership degree of the target layer.
Preferably, before the obtaining of the evaluation values of the criterion layer index and the index layer index of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system, the method further comprises the following steps:
and acquiring a target layer, a criterion layer index and an index layer index of the aqueduct safety evaluation to establish an aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system.
Preferably, a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system is subdivided into the criterion layer, and the criterion layer is subdivided into the index layer.
Preferably, the calculating the weight of the criterion layer index according to the AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value includes:
calculating subjective weights of a plurality of groups of criterion layer indexes according to an AHP method and evaluation values of the criterion layer indexes;
calculating objective weights of a plurality of groups of criterion layer indexes according to an entropy weight method and criterion layer index evaluation values;
and calculating the weight of the criterion layer index according to the subjective weight of the criterion layer index and the objective weight of the criterion layer index.
Preferably, the calculating the weights of the indexes of the index layer according to the AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value respectively includes the steps of:
calculating subjective weights of a plurality of groups of index layers according to an AHP method and evaluation values of the index layers;
calculating objective weights of a plurality of groups of index layers according to an entropy weight method and index layer index evaluation values;
and calculating the weight of the index layer index according to the subjective weight of the index layer index and the objective weight of the index layer index.
Preferably, the all-optimal Fuzzy operator takes the larger value of the membership degree calculated by adopting the weighted synthesis operator and the membership degree calculated by adopting the main factor prominent synthesis operator.
Preferably, the step of calculating the membership degree of the criterion layer index and the membership degree of the target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system in a layering manner according to the full-optimization Fuzzy operator comprises the following steps:
calculating the membership degree of the criterion layer based on the full-quality Fuzzy operator according to the weight of the index layer index and the membership degree of the index layer index;
and calculating the membership degree of a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system based on the full-optimal Fuzzy operator according to the membership degree of the criterion layer and the weight of the criterion layer.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an aqueduct safety evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method, including:
the evaluation value acquisition module is used for acquiring the evaluation values of the standard layer indexes and the index layer indexes of a plurality of groups of aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation systems; the rating comprises a rating based on a natural index scale;
the weight calculation module is used for respectively calculating the weight of the index layer index and the weight of the criterion layer index according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value;
the membership calculation module is used for acquiring the membership of the index layer index determined based on the state division standard and calculating the membership of the criterion layer index and the membership of a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system in a layering manner based on a full-quality Fuzzy operator;
and the grade evaluation module is used for evaluating the safety and/or danger grade of the aqueduct by adopting a weighted integration method according to the membership degree of the target layer.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an aqueduct safety evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method, including:
at least one processor;
at least one memory for storing at least one program;
when the at least one program is executed by the at least one processor, the at least one processor is enabled to realize the aqueduct safety evaluation method based on the improved AHP-FCE method.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, in which processor-executable instructions are stored, and when the processor-executable instructions are executed by a processor, the processor-executable instructions are configured to execute the improved AHP-FCE method-based aqueduct safety evaluation method.
The implementation of the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects: according to the embodiment of the invention, the weight of the index of the criterion layer and the weight of the index layer are respectively calculated according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value, so that the relation between the indexes of each layer is more reasonable, and the weight deviation is reduced; and calculating the membership degree of a target layer of a comprehensive evaluation system of the safety state of the aqueduct by adopting a fully-excellent Fuzzy operator, and then evaluating the safety and/or danger level of the aqueduct, so that a main factor prominent synthetic operator and a weighted average synthetic operator are considered at the same time, the actual condition of the aqueduct can be reflected, the evaluation result is closer to the actual engineering safety evaluation result, and the operability is strong.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of steps of an improved AHP-FCE method-based aqueduct safety evaluation method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a structural block diagram of an aqueduct safety evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of another aqueduct security evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a block diagram of a comprehensive evaluation system for the safety state of an aqueduct according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and the specific embodiments. The step numbers in the following embodiments are provided only for convenience of illustration, the order between the steps is not limited at all, and the execution order of each step in the embodiments can be adapted according to the understanding of those skilled in the art.
Referring to the specification of the aqueduct safety identification (DB 44/T2041-.
TABLE 1 aqueduct safety evaluation Classification
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides an aqueduct safety evaluation method based on an improved AHP-FCE method, including the following steps:
s1, acquiring standard layer indexes and evaluation values of index layer indexes of a comprehensive evaluation system of the safety state of the aqueduct by a plurality of experts; the rating comprises a rating based on a natural index scale;
s2, respectively calculating the weight of the criterion layer index and the weight of the index layer index according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value;
s3, acquiring the membership degree of the index layer index determined based on the state division standard, and calculating the membership degree of the standard layer index and the target layer membership degree of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system according to the full-optimization Fuzzy operator in a layering manner;
and S4, evaluating the safety and/or danger level of the aqueduct by adopting a weighted integration method according to the membership degree of the target layer.
Specifically, the AHP-FCE method: analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) -Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE).
The implementation of the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects: according to the embodiment of the invention, the weight of the index of the criterion layer and the weight of the index layer are respectively calculated according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value, so that the relation between the indexes of each layer is more reasonable, and the weight deviation is reduced; and calculating the membership degree of a target layer of a comprehensive evaluation system of the safety state of the aqueduct by adopting a fully-excellent Fuzzy operator, and then evaluating the safety and/or danger level of the aqueduct, so that a main factor prominent synthetic operator and a weighted average synthetic operator are considered at the same time, the actual condition of the aqueduct can be reflected, the evaluation result is closer to the actual engineering safety evaluation result, and the operability is strong.
Preferably, before obtaining evaluation values of the criterion layer indexes and the index layer indexes of the comprehensive evaluation system of the safety state of the aqueduct by a plurality of experts, the method further comprises the following steps:
and acquiring a target layer, a criterion layer index and an index layer index of the aqueduct safety evaluation to establish an aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system.
Preferably, a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system is subdivided into the criterion layer, and the criterion layer is subdivided into the index layer.
Specifically, a proper aqueduct evaluation hierarchical structure is established according to the structural characteristics and the structural damage failure mechanism of the aqueduct. And taking the aqueduct safety as a target layer of the hierarchical analysis. The aqueduct safety, applicability and durability then constitute the criteria layer. The safety is the most important index for evaluating the safety of the aqueduct, and whether the aqueduct collapses and is damaged is determined; the applicability considers the normal use capability of the aqueduct; the durability is related to the final service life of the aqueduct. And according to the actual conditions of different aqueducts, performing hierarchical analysis on the composition of each element of the criterion layer to determine each index layer.
Preferably, the calculating the weight of the criterion layer index according to the AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value includes:
calculating subjective weights of a plurality of experts on the indexes of the criterion layer according to an AHP method and the evaluation values of the indexes of the criterion layer;
calculating objective weights of a plurality of experts on the indexes of the criterion layer according to an entropy weight method and the index evaluation values of the criterion layer;
and calculating the weight of the criterion layer index according to the subjective weight of the criterion layer index and the objective weight of the criterion layer index.
Preferably, the calculating the weights of the indexes of the index layer according to the AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value respectively includes the steps of:
calculating subjective weights of a plurality of experts on the indexes of the index layer according to an AHP method and the evaluation values of the indexes of the index layer;
calculating objective weights of a plurality of experts on indexes of the index layer according to an entropy weight method and the index layer index evaluation value;
and calculating the weight of the index layer index according to the subjective weight of the index layer index and the objective weight of the index layer index.
Specifically, the AHP (analytic hierarchy process) has the characteristics of strong systematicness, clear logic, high reliability and the like, and is widely applied to various system decision problems. However, for complex and highly professional problems, the problems are influenced by incomplete information and personal preference, and a single expert is easy to judge distortion or misjudgment. Therefore, experts with different professional backgrounds are introduced to form a group decision, subjective weights of indexes are obtained through an AHP method according to different experts, the idea of transfer entropy is used for reference, and the uncertainty of the subjective weights of the experts and the level difference between each expert and an ideal expert are expressed by the entropy. And (3) constructing an expert weight entropy model, evaluating the quality of information given by experts, and determining the contribution degree of each expert weight. And finally, fusing two weights. The idea is to objectively correct the subjective weight of the AHP by using the weight of an expert, so that the accuracy of the weight is improved.
Since the AHP method is proposed, the method is widely applied to decision-making problems, but meanwhile, the unreasonable relation exists among levels in the scales of 1-9, and some scholars propose various scales of 'mutual inversion' and 'complementarity', such as an index an，a8Scale, 9n/9And scaling, 0.1-0.9 scaling. After studying 6 standards of order retention, consistency, scale uniformity, scale memorability, scale perceptibility and scale weight fitting for different scales in the AHP method, a scholart proposes to adopt e for a multi-criterion ordering problem with higher precision requirement0/5～e8/5And (4) scaling. TABLE 2 1-9 Scale and e for re-importance description0/5～e8/5Comparison of the scales.
TABLE 2, scale 1-9 and e0/5～e8/5Scale comparison
Thus, this application takes e0/5～e8/5The weights are calculated by scaling, as follows:
A1) with the use of e0/5～e8/5Scale will be with layer element XiTwo-by-two comparison to construct the judgment matrix A ═ aij(aijIndicating how important the ith factor is relative to the jth factor).
In the formula: a isijRepresents the element XiAnd XjRelative to a comparative scale of the importance of the elements of the layer above it.
A2) Approximate solution of a ═ a by the sum methodijThe characteristic vector of the matrix is firstly normalized to judge the matrix, then the obtained matrixes are added according to rows (see formula 2) to obtain the characteristic vector (see formula 3), and then the characteristic vector is normalized (see formula 4) to obtain the weight coefficient of each index.
In the formula: sijRepresenting element aijNormalizing the result; w is aiRepresenting normalized elements SijThe result of the row-wise addition; wiRepresenting the normalized weights.
The entropy weight method is a common method for calculating objective weights. The entropy model is established as follows:
B1) suppose S1、S2、……SmFor m experts, form a decision group G0、B1、B2、……BnN objects to be evaluated, xij(1,2, …, m; 1,2, …, n) is the value of the i-th appraisal expert's score for the j-th appraisal objective. The evaluation result of each expert in one evaluation process is xi＝(xi1,xi2,...,xin)TThe evaluation result of the expert group was X ═ X (X)ij)m×n. Assuming that there is an ideal optimal expert S*With a score vector of x*＝(x*1,x*2,...,x*n)T。
B2) And determining an expert evaluation level vector. By the scoring result of each expert and the optimal expert S*And (4) measuring the quality of the evaluation given by the scoring result according to the difference of the scoring result, and establishing an expert evaluation level vector as shown in formula 5.
Ei＝(ei1,ei2,...,ein) Equation 5, in which: eiRepresenting an expert evaluation level vector;(i＝1,2,…,m；k＝1,2,…,j)。
B3) establishing an entropy model of an expert evaluation result:
in the formula: h isijRepresenting expert subjective weight entropy values.
H for uncertainty of expert evaluation resultiAnd (4) showing.
B4) And determining the weight of the expert evaluation result. Uncertainty H of expert evaluation resultiThe larger the value, the lower the reliability of the evaluation result of the expert. Otherwise, the higher. The weight of the expert evaluation result is expressed by formula 8, ciThe larger the opinion indicating expert i is, the larger the weight in the evaluation result is.
AHP-entropy weight optimization combination weighting, subjective weight vector W calculated by adopting AHP methodj＝(wij,wj2,...,wjn)T(i is 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, …, m, n is the number of experts, m is the number of indexes). Objective weight vector S ═ (S) calculated by entropy weight method1,s2,...,sn)T(j ═ 1,2, …, m). The optimal combination weighting model established based on the weighted fusion is as follows:
the optimized combination weight vector w of the evaluation index can be obtainedi＝(w1,w2,...,wn)T。
Preferably, the all-optimal Fuzzy operator takes the larger value of the membership degree calculated by adopting the weighted synthesis operator and the membership degree calculated by adopting the main factor prominent synthesis operator.
Preferably, the step of calculating the membership degree of the criterion layer index and the membership degree of the target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system in a layering manner according to the full-optimization Fuzzy operator comprises the following steps:
calculating the membership degree of the criterion layer based on the full-quality Fuzzy operator according to the weight of the index layer index and the membership degree of the index layer index;
and calculating the membership degree of a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system based on the full-optimal Fuzzy operator according to the membership degree of the criterion layer and the weight of the criterion layer.
Specifically, in the Fuzzy evaluation method based on the fully-optimized Fuzzy synthesis operator, because the aqueduct belongs to a complex system, multiple factors need to be considered for evaluation, and thus multi-level Fuzzy evaluation needs to be performed. The method comprises the following steps:
C1) firstly, dividing the evaluation factors into s subsets U ═ U according to attributes1,U2,...,Us}，
C2) Establishing a comment set V ═ V according to the evaluation target requirement1,V2,...,Vn}。
C3) Fuzzy evaluation by single layer, each factor uijRelative to the subset UiThe weight of (a) is the weight optimized by the AHP-entropy weight method of formula 9, where w is (w)1,w2,...,wn) The determined one-factor evaluation matrix Ri, then the subset UiThe fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result is as follows:
C4) comprehensive evaluation, comprehensive factors UiThe membership matrix of (a) is:
the secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result is as follows:
in the formula: the sign "°" represents a blurring operator.
The commonly used Fuzzy synthesis operators have a main factor type M (V, V), a main factor prominent type M (V, V), an unbalanced average type M (V, V), a weighted average type M (V, V). M (@, v), M (·, v), M (@,. kibble) can highlight the most adverse factors but easily ignore other information, while M (·,. kibble) balances all factors according to the weight, but also weakens the influence of some adverse factors playing a role in decision. Therefore, the Fuzzy synthetic operator needs to be modified, according to the full-quality Fuzzy synthetic operator, the dominant factor prominent synthetic operator M (·, v) and the weighted average synthetic operator M (·, v) can be considered at the same time, and the problem that different synthetic operators need to be selected during calculation can be avoided, because the process of selecting the maximum value of the membership degree implicitly includes the selection process of the dominant factor prominent synthetic operator and the weighted average synthetic operator. The element expression of the comprehensive decision vector is as follows:
in the formula:representing the comprehensive membership degree of the normalization of the evaluation object obtained by a weighted synthesis operator M (· +. or +. gtoreq);and (4) representing the dominant factor prominent type synthetic operator M (V, V) to obtain the normalized comprehensive membership of the evaluation object.
In Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of aqueduct risk, the full-optimal Fuzzy operator can avoid the decisive influence of favorable factors on the overall evaluation result, meanwhile, the influence of unfavorable factors is highlighted, the safety characteristic of the aqueduct can be truly reflected, and therefore an accurate evaluation result is obtained.
As shown in fig. 2, an embodiment of the present invention provides an aqueduct safety evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method, including:
the evaluation value acquisition module is used for acquiring evaluation values of a plurality of experts on the standard layer indexes and the index layer indexes of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system; the rating comprises a rating based on a natural index scale;
the weight calculation module is used for respectively calculating the weight of the index layer index and the weight of the criterion layer index according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value;
the membership calculation module is used for acquiring the membership of the index layer index determined based on the state division standard and calculating the membership of the criterion layer index and the membership of a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system in a layering manner based on a full-quality Fuzzy operator;
and the grade evaluation module is used for evaluating the safety and/or danger grade of the aqueduct by adopting a weighted integration method according to the membership degree of the target layer.
It can be seen that the contents in the foregoing method embodiments are all applicable to this system embodiment, the functions specifically implemented by this system embodiment are the same as those in the foregoing method embodiment, and the advantageous effects achieved by this system embodiment are also the same as those achieved by the foregoing method embodiment.
As shown in fig. 3, an embodiment of the present invention provides an aqueduct safety evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method, including:
at least one processor;
at least one memory for storing at least one program;
when the at least one program is executed by the at least one processor, the at least one processor is enabled to realize the aqueduct safety evaluation method based on the improved AHP-FCE method.
It can be seen that the contents in the foregoing method embodiments are all applicable to this system embodiment, the functions specifically implemented by this system embodiment are the same as those in the foregoing method embodiment, and the advantageous effects achieved by this system embodiment are also the same as those achieved by the foregoing method embodiment.
Furthermore, an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, in which processor-executable instructions are stored, and when the processor-executable instructions are executed by a processor, the processor-executable instructions are used for executing the improved AHP-FCE method-based aqueduct safety evaluation method. Likewise, the contents of the above method embodiments are all applicable to the present storage medium embodiment, the functions specifically implemented by the present storage medium embodiment are the same as those of the above method embodiments, and the advantageous effects achieved by the present storage medium embodiment are also the same as those achieved by the above method embodiments.
While the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been illustrated and described, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
The invention is further illustrated below with reference to a detailed example.
The new bridge aqueduct is built in 1960,the double-cantilever support double-column type channel pier is located on a west stream of a tunnel river branch in Zhanjiang city, Guangdong province, is a largest canal system building in a water reservoir irrigation area of a crane field, has the total length of 1206m and is 40-span, and is built by stone mortar. The width of the bottom of the aqueduct is 5.5m, and the height of the aqueduct body is 3.2 m. The aqueduct consists of a channel body, a channel pier, a railing, a working bridge and a sidewalk. Design water flow of 12.75m3And s. The level of a main building is 2, the flood control standard is 50 years, and the earthquake intensity is set according to 7 degrees. Is mainly used for industrial, agricultural and domestic water supply in Zhanjiang city. The aqueduct has been operated for 57 years, and dangerous cases occur for many times in the process. After the aqueduct is built and operated, the aqueduct is naturally aged due to the influence of factors such as climate, oxidation, corrosion and the like, so that serious potential safety hazards such as cracking, exposed ribs, water leakage and the like exist, and the safety and the durability of the aqueduct structure are reduced. On-site investigation shows that the concrete in the aqueduct is peeled off, the steel bars are exposed, the water-stop rubber is aged and leaks water, the bottom plate of the aqueduct is seriously washed, different degrees of defects of sidewalks are damaged, partial aqueduct body is seriously seamed and leaks water, and some aqueduct piers are full of plants. In order to ensure the safe operation of the aqueduct, the safety state of the aqueduct needs to be scientifically evaluated so as to take corresponding measures, improve the safety of the aqueduct and prolong the service life of the aqueduct.
According to the actual engineering situation and relevant documents, dividing the bottom layer indexes of the criterion layer (safety, applicability and durability) of the aqueduct evaluation, and constructing a hierarchical analysis structure. 4 indexes of groove pier bearing capacity, groove pier foundation bearing capacity, aqueduct integral stability and anti-seismic safety are divided into safety; the applicability is refined into 3 indexes of over-current capacity, uneven settlement and structural damage; the durability adopts 8 indexes of crack, steel bar corrosion, concrete strength, steel bar protective layer thickness, carbonization depth, water and water leakage prevention, relative service life, abrasion and cavitation erosion. A total of 15 bottom indicators. And a comprehensive evaluation system for the safety state of the aqueduct as shown in figure 4 is established.
By using radicals based on e0/5～e8/5The scaled AHP-entropy weight method determines the weights of each index. 5 experts were invited to score. Taking the indexes of the criterion layer as an example, the subjective weight calculation results of expert 1 on safety, applicability and durability are shown in table 3. The scoring opinions of the remaining 4 experts were also calculated according to the modified AHP method. Criterion layer target subjectivityThe weight results are summarized in Table 4. The expert opinion weights were calculated according to the entropy weight method described above and the results are shown in Table 5.
TABLE 3 criterion layer weights for expert 1 opinion calculation
TABLE 4 subjective weighting of criteria layer indicators
Layer of criteria Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3 Expert 4 Expert 5
Safety feature 0.42 0.43 0.4 0.45 0.47
Applicability of the invention 0.22 0.27 0.25 0.21 0.2
Durability 0.36 0.3 0.35 0.34 0.34
TABLE 5 expert opinion weight calculation results
And finally combining the subjective weight calculated by the improved AHP method and the objective weight of the expert calculated by the entropy weight method according to the formula (9) to obtain the combined weights of the safety, the applicability and the durability of 0.43, 0.23 and 0.34 respectively. And similarly, calculating the weight of the bottom level index according to an AHP-entropy weight method.
Evaluation criteria are assigned to the states of the evaluation indexes. In order to coordinate with the overall goal, the indexes are divided into four categories according to different states, as shown in table 6. Meanwhile, according to the field detection and structure rechecking conditions, the degree of membership of the bottom layer index is determined by referring to the qualitative or quantitative evaluation standard of each index, which is shown in table 7.
TABLE 6 index evaluation criteria and membership
TABLE 7 evaluation index weight and membership degree of aqueduct bottom
And (3) calculating the layer membership degree of the criterion according to the bottom layer index weight and the membership degree and the formula 11, and then performing the primary Fuzzy calculation to obtain a total target membership degree matrix, wherein the total target membership degree matrix is respectively calculated by adopting a weighted average operator M (· ∈ @), a main factor saliency operator M (· V), and a full-quality Fuzzy operator in the Fuzzy calculation, and the total target membership degree matrix is shown in a table 8.
TABLE 8 Total target membership for aqueduct safety evaluation
The total target membership degree matrix A1 calculated by adopting weighted average type and full-optimal type Fuzzy synthesis operators in the project has little difference, and the dominant factor saliency operator highlights the most adverse factor.
The total target membership is risk assessed by using the maximum membership principle and the weighted comprehensive principle, respectively, as shown in table 9. The three fuzzy operators can judge the safety classes of the aqueducts into one class by adopting a maximum membership principle, and evaluate the safety classes after obtaining a single value of the risk by adopting a weighted comprehensive principle, wherein only the risk degrees are slightly different, the risk grades are three classes, and the corresponding safety classes are also three classes. Namely: the operation index can not reach the design standard, the project is seriously damaged, and the normal operation can be realized after danger removal and reinforcement. The result is consistent with the result of the safety identification of the aqueduct, the aqueduct is recommended to strictly forbid the operation of the full aqueduct, the excessive flow does not exceed the increased flow, the inner wall of the aqueduct is repaired, the joint water stopping is replaced, and the sidewalk and the guardrail are rebuilt. In this example, the difference between the membership degrees belonging to one category and the membership degrees belonging to the three categories is not obvious, so that the evaluation result is prone to have larger deviation if the maximum membership degree principle is adopted. The results of the comprehensive risk evaluation of the aqueduct by adopting the weighted average type synthesis operator M < - > is ^ minus, the main factor prominent type synthesis operator M < - > and the full-optimal operator are consistent, and the situation that the full-optimal operator can be directly adopted for the comprehensive safety evaluation of the aqueduct without selecting a fuzzy operator is shown.
TABLE 9 comprehensive evaluation results of aqueduct safety
This embodiment is adopted based on natural index e0/5～e8/5The subjective weight of the assessment expert is determined by a scaled analytic hierarchy process, and the subjective weight is corrected by introducing an entropy model to determine the objective weight of the opinion of each assessment expert on the basis of group decision. The method ensures that the relation between indexes of each grade is more reasonable, and reduces the deviation brought by subjective weight of experts; the introduced full-optimal Fuzzy synthetic operator simultaneously considers a main factor prominent synthetic operator and a weighted average synthetic operator, and the final evaluation result obtained by carrying out Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the aqueduct is consistent with other two results, so that the full-optimal operator is directly adopted for calculation during calculation; when the membership degrees of different grades are relatively close, the principle of maximum membership degree is not suitable for direct evaluation, and after the comprehensive risk degree is obtained by adopting the weighting comprehensive principle, the safety classification of the aqueduct is determined by combining with the safety evaluation standard of the aqueduct. The finally obtained safety category evaluation result is consistent with the engineering safety identification result, and the method has strong operability and provides a scientific and reasonable solution for evaluating the engineering safety of the aqueduct.

Claims (10)

1. A flume safety evaluation method based on an improved AHP-FCE method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a criterion layer index and an evaluation value of an index layer index of an aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system; the rating comprises a rating based on a natural index scale;
respectively calculating the weight of the index of the criterion layer and the weight of the index layer according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value;
acquiring the membership degree of the index layer index determined based on the state division standard, and calculating the membership degree of the index layer index of the criterion layer and the target layer membership degree of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system according to the full-optimization Fuzzy operator in a layering manner;
and evaluating the safety and/or danger level of the aqueduct by adopting a weighted integration method according to the membership degree of the target layer.
2. The aqueduct safety evaluation method based on the improved AHP-FCE method as claimed in claim 1, wherein before obtaining evaluation values of the criterion layer index and the index layer index of the comprehensive evaluation system of the safety state of the aqueduct, further comprising the steps of:
and acquiring a target layer, a criterion layer index and an index layer index of the aqueduct safety evaluation to establish an aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system.
3. The aqueduct security evaluation method based on the improved AHP-FCE method as claimed in claim 2, wherein a target layer of the aqueduct security state comprehensive evaluation system is subdivided into the criterion layer, and the criterion layer is subdivided into the index layer.
4. The improved AHP-FCE method-based aqueduct safety evaluation method as claimed in claim 1, wherein said calculating the weight of said criterion layer index according to AHP-entropy weight method and said evaluation value respectively comprises the steps of:
calculating subjective weights of a plurality of groups of criterion layer indexes according to an AHP method and evaluation values of the criterion layer indexes;
calculating objective weights of a plurality of groups of criterion layer indexes according to an entropy weight method and criterion layer index evaluation values;
and calculating the weight of the criterion layer index according to the subjective weight of the criterion layer index and the objective weight of the criterion layer index.
5. The improved AHP-FCE method-based aqueduct safety evaluation method as claimed in claim 4, wherein said calculating the weight of said index layer index according to AHP-entropy weight method and said evaluation value respectively comprises the steps of:
calculating subjective weights of a plurality of groups of index layers according to an AHP method and evaluation values of the index layers;
calculating objective weights of a plurality of groups of index layers according to an entropy weight method and index layer index evaluation values;
and calculating the weight of the index layer index according to the subjective weight of the index layer index and the objective weight of the index layer index.
6. The aqueduct safety evaluation method based on the improved AHP-FCE method as claimed in claim 1, wherein said full-optimal Fuzzy operator is the larger value of the membership degree calculated by adopting a weighted synthesis operator and the membership degree calculated by adopting a dominant factor prominent synthesis operator.
7. The aqueduct safety evaluation method based on the improved AHP-FCE method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the degree of membership of the criterion layer index and the degree of membership of the objective layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system are calculated according to the full-optimal Fuzzy operator in a layered manner, comprising the steps of:
calculating the membership degree of the criterion layer based on the full-quality Fuzzy operator according to the weight of the index layer index and the membership degree of the index layer index;
and calculating the membership degree of a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system based on the full-optimal Fuzzy operator according to the membership degree of the criterion layer and the weight of the criterion layer.
8. A aqueduct safety evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the evaluation value acquisition module is used for acquiring the evaluation values of the standard layer indexes and the index layer indexes of a plurality of groups of aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation systems; the rating comprises a rating based on a natural index scale;
the weight calculation module is used for respectively calculating the weight of the index layer index and the weight of the criterion layer index according to an AHP-entropy weight method and the evaluation value;
the membership calculation module is used for acquiring the membership of the index layer index determined based on the state division standard and calculating the membership of the criterion layer index and the membership of a target layer of the aqueduct safety state comprehensive evaluation system in a layering manner based on a full-quality Fuzzy operator;
and the grade evaluation module is used for evaluating the safety and/or danger grade of the aqueduct by adopting a weighted integration method according to the membership degree of the target layer.
9. A aqueduct safety evaluation system based on an improved AHP-FCE method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
at least one processor;
at least one memory for storing at least one program;
when executed by the at least one processor, cause the at least one processor to implement the improved AHP-FCE based aqueduct security assessment method of any one of claims 1-7.
10. A storage medium having stored therein processor-executable instructions, wherein the processor-executable instructions, when executed by a processor, are configured to perform the improved AHP-FCE based flume safety assessment method of any one of claims 1-7.
CN201910805795.6A 2019-08-29 2019-08-29 Aqueduct safety evaluation method, system and storage medium based on improved AHP-FCE method Pending CN110599011A (en)

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