CN110598990B - Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process - Google Patents

Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN110598990B
CN110598990B CN201910749359.1A CN201910749359A CN110598990B CN 110598990 B CN110598990 B CN 110598990B CN 201910749359 A CN201910749359 A CN 201910749359A CN 110598990 B CN110598990 B CN 110598990B
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
sag
voltage
probability
voltage sag
link
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Active
Application number
CN201910749359.1A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Other versions
CN110598990A (en
Inventor
蔡日
王庆斌
黄辉
李钙
王余熙
赵宪中
李晓阳
邵彬
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Yunfu Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Original Assignee
Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Yunfu Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd, Yunfu Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd filed Critical Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Priority to CN201910749359.1A priority Critical patent/CN110598990B/en
Publication of CN110598990A publication Critical patent/CN110598990A/en
Application granted granted Critical
Publication of CN110598990B publication Critical patent/CN110598990B/en
Active legal-status Critical Current
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical

Links

Images

Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply

Landscapes

  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Public Health (AREA)
  • Primary Health Care (AREA)
  • Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
  • General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses an industrial process voltage sag interruption probability evaluation method based on an analytic hierarchy process, which comprises the following steps: acquiring original voltage sag data, and if the original voltage sag is a three-phase unbalanced voltage sag, converting the three-phase normalization of the original voltage sag data into a three-phase balanced sag; carrying out voltage sag fault probability evaluation calculation on sensitive equipment in an area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity by utilizing three-phase balance voltage sag data; correcting the fault probability to obtain the equipment voltage sag fault probability based on the redundancy; correcting the redundancy-based equipment voltage sag fault probability to obtain a link interruption probability; according to the link interruption probability, determining the importance ratio of different links, establishing a contrast matrix, calculating the weights of different links by using the contrast matrix, and weighting and summing the link interruption probability to obtain the process voltage sag interruption probability. The invention introduces the link sag interruption probability into the voltage sag interruption probability evaluation in the industrial process, thereby improving the accuracy of the evaluation.

Description

Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power system control, in particular to an industrial process voltage sag interruption probability evaluation method based on an analytic hierarchy process.
Background
With the rapid development of the technology, many sensitive devices are incorporated into a public power grid, and the power quality of the power grid, especially the dynamic power quality of the power grid, is seriously reduced, which causes the wide attention of experts and scholars at home and abroad. Sensitive loads are very sensitive to power quality disturbances such as voltage sags, voltage surges, short-term interruptions and the like, and the failure of a single device or element may cause the scrapping of products in the whole production line, thereby bringing about great economic loss.
At present, most industrial processes are composed of sensitive elements such as microelectronics, power electronics and process control, and have the characteristics of complex structure and large difference of interference immunity of each element, under the influence of voltage sag, voltage sag possibly suffered by the industrial processes needs to be uniformly measured, but the voltage sag interruption probability evaluation of the industrial processes is very difficult due to the fact that the response events of the industrial processes to the voltage sag are complex and uncertain, and the accurate evaluation of the voltage sag interruption probability of the industrial processes is needed for establishing a technical scheme of a high-quality power park. The existing assessment method aiming at the interruption probability of the industrial process does not consider the influence degree of different links on the industrial process, and in addition, the assessment method based on hierarchical analysis has single hierarchical structure and poor assessment effect.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides an industrial process voltage sag interruption probability evaluation method based on an analytic hierarchy process, aiming at overcoming the defects that the influence degree of different links on an industrial process is not considered in the evaluation method of the industrial process interruption probability in the prior art, the evaluation method is single in hierarchical structure and poor in evaluation effect.
The primary objective of the present invention is to solve the above technical problems, and the technical solution of the present invention is as follows:
an industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on an analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
s1: acquiring original voltage sag data, and if the original voltage sag is a three-phase unbalanced voltage sag, converting the three-phase normalization of the original voltage sag data into the three-phase balanced voltage sag; if the original voltage sag is a three-phase balanced voltage sag, directly performing step S2;
s2: carrying out voltage sag fault probability evaluation calculation on sensitive equipment in an area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity by utilizing three-phase balance voltage sag data;
s3: correcting the fault probability in the step S2 by utilizing the redundancy of the industrial process to obtain the device voltage sag fault probability based on the redundancy;
s4: correcting the redundancy-based equipment voltage sag fault probability based on the connection mode among the equipment to obtain a link interruption probability;
s5: according to the link interruption probability, determining the importance ratio of different links, establishing a contrast matrix, calculating the weights of different links by using the contrast matrix, and weighting and summing the link interruption probability to obtain the process voltage sag interruption probability.
Further, in step S1, on the premise of keeping the sag loss energy unchanged, the three-phase unbalanced voltage sag is converted into a three-phase balanced voltage sag, and the three-phase normalization specific process of the original voltage sag data is as follows:
constructing an energy index expression of rectangular voltage sag, which comprises the following specific steps:
E＝(1-Usag 2)×Tsag (1)
wherein, UsagThe sag amplitude of the rectangular sag is pu and TsagIs the sag duration;
respectively calculating the energy indexes E of the three-phase sag through the energy index expressions of the rectangular voltage sagvsSpecifically, the following are shown:
Evs＝Evs.A+Evs.B+Evs.C (2)
wherein E isvs.A、Evs.B、Evs.CA, B, C three-phase sag energy indexes;
keeping the sag duration unchanged, and combining the formula (1) and the formula (2) to obtain the sag amplitude after three-phase normalization, specifically:
Figure GDA0002535650640000021
wherein, U'sagThe normalized sag amplitude value is obtained; u shapesag.A、Usag.B、Usag.CA, B, C three-phase sag amplitudes, respectively.
Further, the upper limit and the lower limit of the voltage sag tolerance of the sensitive device in the uncertain region of the device voltage tolerance capability are respectively recorded as: u shapemax、UminAnd respectively recording the upper limit and the lower limit of the voltage sag duration of the sensitive equipment in the area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity as: t ismax、Tmin；
Dividing the device voltage endurance uncertain region into three regions, respectively recording as a B1 region, a B2 region and a B3 region, setting a voltage sag amplitude U and a duration t, and if U is in the valuemin<u<Umax，Tmin<t<TmaxIf the voltage endurance uncertainty area of the device is recorded as a B1 area; b1 zone sag probability P of equipment failuretrip.B1Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B1(t,u)＝PB1.t(t)×PB1.u(u) (4)
Figure GDA0002535650640000031
Figure GDA0002535650640000032
wherein, T'maxFor a short time maximum duration of voltage change;
if U ismin<u<Umax，Tmax<t, an uncertain region of the voltage endurance capacity of the device is marked as a region B2; b is2Probability of equipment failure due to zone sag
Figure GDA0002535650640000037
Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B2(t,u)＝Ptrip.B1(Tmax,u)+ΔPtrip.B2(t,u) (7)
Figure GDA0002535650640000033
if u<Umin，Tmin<t<TmaxIf the voltage endurance uncertainty area of the device is recorded as a B3 area; b is3Probability of equipment failure due to zone sag
Figure GDA0002535650640000038
Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B3(t,u)＝Ptrip.B1(t,Umin)+ΔPtrip.B3(t,u) (9)
Figure GDA0002535650640000034
further, if u>UmaxIf the operation area is u, the sensitive equipment operates normally, the current operation area of the sensitive equipment is marked as an area A, namely a normal operation area, and if the operation area is u, the sensitive equipment operates normally<Umin，Tmax<And t, recording the current sensitive equipment operation area as a C area, namely a fault area.
Further, the fault probability in step S2 is corrected by using the redundancy of the industrial process, so as to obtain the device voltage sag fault probability based on the redundancy, and the specific process is as follows:
defining an industrial process redundancy factor, wherein the industrial process redundancy factor is marked as R, and the expression is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000035
wherein, tsagRepresenting the sag duration, Δ tEIndicating a device restart delay, the PIT value indicating a process immunity time, tres.minWhen the calculation result R is less than or equal to 0, the current industrial process parameter has no redundancy, and the redundancy factor R is greater than zero, the voltage sag fault probability of the equipment based on the redundancy is determined
Figure GDA0002535650640000036
Expressed as:
Figure GDA0002535650640000041
wherein, Ptrip.B(t, u) is the probability of failure after the device is affected by the B zone dip, including Ptrip.B1(t,u)、 Ptrip.B2(t,u)、Ptrip.B3(t, u); when in use
Figure GDA0002535650640000048
When it is taken
Figure GDA0002535650640000042
Further, in step S4, based on the connection mode between the devices and the redundancy-based device voltage sag fault probability calculated in step S3, a link interruption probability in consideration of redundancy is calculated, where the link interruption probability is expressed as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000043
wherein, PsubIn order to determine the probability of a link interruption,
Figure GDA0002535650640000044
the fault probability of the jth parallel device in the ith series device group after being influenced by the sag is obtained; m is the number of the series equipment groups; n is the number of parallel devices in the ith series device group.
Further, the specific process of step S5 is:
s5.1: a contrast matrix E is established and,
Figure GDA0002535650640000045
wherein n represents the number of ring segments, eijRepresenting the importance degree of the link i compared with the link j, wherein the link i is recorded as siThe link j is marked as sj；
S5.2: normalizing the contrast matrix by columns, and recording the new matrix as F, wherein each element in the new matrix F is recorded as FijExpressed as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000046
s5.3: summing the F matrix by rows to obtain FiAnd carrying out normalization processing to obtain a link weight vector omega, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000047
wherein, ω isiRepresenting the weight coefficient of the link i;
s5.4: and (3) checking the consistency of the comparison matrix, if the consistency ratio of the comparison matrix meets a preset value, taking the link weight vector omega of the step S5.3 as an effective value, and weighting and summing the link interruption probability to obtain the process voltage sag interruption probability, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000051
wherein, Psub.iThe interruption probability of the link i; omegaiIs the weight coefficient of the link i.
Further, the consistency ratio calculation formula of the contrast matrix is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000052
wherein, CI is a consistency index; RI is the average random consistency index, when the consistency ratio is less than the preset valueWhen the comparison matrix E is in a value, the inconsistency degree of the comparison matrix E is in an allowable range, the comparison matrix E is reconstructed and E is adjusted through consistency check if the consistency ratio is larger than or equal to a preset valueij。
Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme of the invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the method, the voltage sag interruption probability of the introduction link is evaluated in the voltage sag interruption probability of the industrial process, the influence of interruption of different links on the process is fully considered, and meanwhile, a multistage hierarchical mode is utilized, so that the evaluation method is clearer in structure, more suitable for engineering practice, and the accuracy of the voltage sag interruption probability evaluation of the industrial process is improved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of the CBEMA voltage withstand curve.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of the ITIC voltage withstand curve.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a hierarchical evaluation process of sag interruption probability of an industrial process.
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of the device voltage tolerance curve and its uncertainty region division.
FIG. 6 is a process parameter variation curve.
Fig. 7 is a graph of process parameter changes when a process restart is successful.
Detailed Description
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention can be more clearly understood, a more particular description of the invention will be rendered by reference to the appended drawings. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present application may be combined with each other without conflict.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, however, the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those specifically described herein, and therefore the scope of the present invention is not limited by the specific embodiments disclosed below.
Example 1
The noun explains:
voltage sag:
defined in the IEEE standard as: the effective value of the power frequency voltage at a certain point in the power supply system suddenly drops to 10% -90% of the rated value, and the power frequency voltage is recovered to be normal after a short duration period of 10ms-1 min.
Short-time power interruption:
defined in the IEEE standard as: a short-time voltage change of duration between 10ms and 3s, with a complete loss of voltage of one or more phases (less than 0.1 per unit value) in the power supply system.
A sensitive device:
electrical devices susceptible to voltage sags, short interruptions, and voltage sags, computers (PCs), Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), Adjustable Speed Drives (ASDs), and ac contactors (ACCs) are generally considered as typical sensitive devices.
ITIC and CBEMA curves:
the american association of computer and commercial equipment manufacturers proposed a voltage tolerance curve, CBEMA curve, for large computers, as shown in fig. 1, with the envelope being qualified on the inside and unqualified on the outside. After CBEMA was changed to the information technology industry Association (ITIC), the third technical Committee revised it to the ITIC curve, as shown in FIG. 2. CBEMA or ITIC curves are recommended as manufacturer-suggested criteria.
As shown in fig. 3, the invention combines engineering practice to divide the industrial process into an equipment level, a link level and a process level, adopts different evaluation methods according to the characteristics of different levels, and evaluates the equipment failure probability, the link interruption probability and the process interruption probability step by step, thereby ensuring the accuracy of evaluation.
The industrial process is divided into different links according to the function and the structure of the industrial process, each link can realize a specific function in function, the functions of all the links are mutually coordinated to realize the process function, and the division of the functions of the different links is the basis for dividing the process into the links. Structurally, a link is a part of the entire industrial process, consisting of one or a group of devices. After the voltage sag occurs, the normal work of the equipment is directly influenced, further the realization of the link function is influenced, and finally the normal operation of the process is influenced. Therefore, when the influence of the sag on the process is evaluated, the influence of the sag on the equipment is firstly evaluated, namely the equipment sag fault probability is evaluated, then the link interruption probability is evaluated according to the connection mode between the equipment, finally the weight of the link is determined according to the link importance degree, and the process interruption probability is calculated. The industrial process sag interruption probability hierarchical evaluation process is shown in fig. 1.
At the equipment level, areas with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity are divided according to the characteristics of different areas, a voltage sag fault probability evaluation model of sensitive equipment based on VTC (equipment voltage tolerance curve) is provided for different areas, and in addition, a voltage sag three-phase standardization method is provided for solving the problem of narrow application range of the traditional evaluation method.
In the link level, PIT is applied to the evaluation of link redundancy according to the PIT and the sag duration TsagAnd a device restart time tresAnd device restart delay Δ tEThe method provides a link redundancy quantitative evaluation method.
At the Process level, a calculation method of a weight coefficient in an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used, the importance degree of a link is determined according to the temporary drop interruption probability of the link, a comparison matrix is obtained, the weight coefficient of each link is calculated by using the comparison matrix, whether the weight coefficient is available or not is judged by calculating a Consistency Ratio (CR), and after the weight coefficient is determined to be available, the Process interruption probability is calculated by the weight coefficient and the link interruption probability, so that the accurate evaluation of the interruption probability of the industrial Process caused by the temporary drop of the voltage is realized.
As shown in fig. 4, an industrial process voltage sag interruption probability evaluation method based on an analytic hierarchy process includes the following steps:
s1: acquiring original voltage sag data, and if the original voltage sag is a three-phase unbalanced voltage sag, converting the three-phase normalization of the original voltage sag data into the three-phase balanced voltage sag; if the original voltage sag is a three-phase balanced voltage sag, directly performing step S2;
it should be noted that the voltage sag in the line may occur due to the following reasons: the invention provides a three-phase voltage sag standardization method, which is characterized by converting unbalanced sag into balanced sag on the premise of keeping the sag loss energy unchanged, avoiding errors caused by the method and improving the accuracy of an evaluation result.
In step S1, the three-phase normalization process of the original voltage sag data includes:
constructing an energy index expression of rectangular voltage sag, which comprises the following specific steps:
E＝(1-Usag 2)×Tsag (1)
wherein, UsagThe sag amplitude of the rectangular sag is pu and TsagIs the sag duration;
respectively calculating the energy indexes E of the three-phase sag through the energy index expressions of the rectangular voltage sagvsSpecifically, the following are shown:
Evs＝Evs.A+Evs.B+Evs.C (2)
wherein E isvs.A、Evs.B、Evs.CA, B, C three-phase sag energy indexes;
keeping the sag duration unchanged, and combining the formula (1) and the formula (2) to obtain the sag amplitude after three-phase normalization, specifically:
Figure GDA0002535650640000081
wherein, U'sagThe normalized sag amplitude value is obtained; u shapesag.A、Usag.B、Usag.CA, B, C three-phase sag amplitudes, respectively.
It should be noted that the sag caused by the start of the large induction motor and the excitation of the large transformer is a non-rectangular sag, the sag has a low frequency and an amplitude of more than 0.85pu, and the sag has a low severity, so that the equipment fault is difficult to cause. Therefore, the voltage sag interruption probability of the industrial process is evaluated without considering the sag caused by the two reasons.
S2: carrying out voltage sag fault probability evaluation calculation on sensitive equipment in an area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity by utilizing three-phase balance voltage sag data;
as shown in fig. 5, more specifically, the upper limit and the lower limit of the voltage sag tolerance of the sensitive device in the uncertain region of the device voltage tolerance are respectively recorded as: u shapemax、UminAnd respectively recording the upper limit and the lower limit of the voltage sag duration of the sensitive equipment in the area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity as: t ismax、Tmin；
The device voltage endurance uncertain region is divided into three regions, which are respectively marked as a B1 region, a B2 region and a B3 region, and the voltage sag amplitude u and the duration t are set,
if U ismin<u<Umax，Tmin<t<TmaxIf the voltage endurance uncertainty area of the device is recorded as a B1 area; the dips are high in amplitude and short in duration in region B1, and have a relatively low severity, more specifically two dips S of the same duration in region B1u1And Su2Due to Su1The sag value of is greater than Su2So that S is temporarily droppedu2Is higher, its impact on the equipment is also greater.
Therefore, when the same device is affected by two dips in the B1 region, the probability of device failure is: ptrip.B1(t,u1)＜Ptrip.B1(t,u2)。
In FIG. 5, B11And (4) temporarily dropping in the region, wherein under the condition of a certain duration, the equipment fault probability is inversely proportional to the temporarily dropping amplitude, namely the equipment fault probability is inversely proportional to the distance from the temporarily dropping to the T axis. Similarly, in the B1 area, the probability of equipment failure is temporarily reduced to T when the temporary reduction amplitude is constantminIs proportional to the distance of the region B1, the region B1 is temporarily decreasedProbability of failure of adult plant Ptrip.B1Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B1(t,u)＝PB1.t(t)×PB1.u(u) (4)
Figure GDA0002535650640000082
Figure GDA0002535650640000091
wherein, T'maxFor a short time maximum duration of voltage change;
if u<Umin，Tmin<t<TmaxIf the voltage endurance uncertainty area of the device is recorded as a B3 area; the sag duration is short in the B3 region, but the sag amplitude is low, and the sag severity is high; as shown in fig. 2, the sag S of the B3 region is equal to the sag duration tu3And dip S of B1 regionu2In contrast, the difference is only in the sag value u2>u3And considering the characteristics of the B3 area, the failure probability P is temporarily reduced by the B1 area equipmenttrip.B1Based on this, the B3 region temporarily lowers the probability P of causing equipment failuretrip.B3Is represented as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000094
Figure GDA0002535650640000092
if U ismin<u<Umax，Tmax<t, an uncertain region of the voltage endurance capacity of the device is marked as a region B2; the sag duration is longer in the B2 region, but the sag amplitude is high, and the sag severity is higher;
b2 zone sag probability P of equipment failuretrip.B2Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B2(t,u)＝Ptrip.B1(Tmax,u)+ΔPtrip.B2(t,u) (7)
Figure GDA0002535650640000093
it should be noted that if u>UmaxIf the sensitive equipment operates normally, the current operation area of the sensitive equipment is recorded as an area A, namely a normal operation area, and when the operation area of the sensitive equipment is influenced by the sag of the area A, the equipment fault probability P is obtainedtrip.A＝0；
If u<Umin，Tmax<t, when the current sensitive equipment operation area is marked as a C area, namely a fault area, and is influenced by sag in the C area, the fault probability P of the equipmenttrip.C＝1。
S3: correcting the fault probability in the step S2 by utilizing the redundancy of the industrial process to obtain the device voltage sag fault probability based on the redundancy;
it should be noted that, the invention realizes accurate quantification of redundancy of each link in the industrial process by considering the relationship between each physical parameter PIT value and the minimum restart time of the corresponding equipment.
As shown in FIG. 6, the industrial process is operating steadily with the process parameters maintained at the nominal value P before the sag occursnom， t1The temporary drop occurs at a moment, the process parameters change and gradually begin to deviate from the rated value PnomAt t2At the moment the process parameter crosses the acceptable limit PlimitThe process is interrupted or restarted because the normal running state cannot be maintained; Δ t is the process response delay time; process immunity time, PIT ═ t2-t1。
If the voltage sag crosses the acceptable limit P at the value of the process parameterlimitAnd ending before, restarting the equipment due to the recovery of the power supply voltage, starting the recovery of the process parameters after the output quantity of the equipment is recovered to a normal level, and starting the restart of the process. As can be seen from fig. 7, the conditions that must be satisfied for the process to restart successfully are: sag duration tsagAnd a device restart time tresAnd is provided withStandby restart delay Δ tEThe sum being less than the process immunity time PIT value, i.e.
tsag+tres+ΔtE＜PIT
In the formula,. DELTA.tEMainly determined by the scan time or reaction time of the plant control system.
The specific process of step S3 of the present invention is:
defining an industrial process redundancy factor, wherein the industrial process redundancy factor is marked as R, and the expression is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000101
wherein, tsagRepresenting the sag duration, Δ tEIndicating a device restart delay, the PIT value indicating a process immunity time, tres.minAnd when the calculation result R is less than or equal to 0, the current industrial process parameter has no redundancy.
When (PIT-t)sag-ΔtE) Value and tresThe larger the ratio of (a) is, the more sufficient the restarting time obtained after the equipment fails is, the larger the probability of the equipment restarting success is, that is, the greater the redundancy of the link is, the greater the probability of the equipment restarting success in recovering to normal operation is. For the area A, the voltage sag severity is low, and the equipment failure probability P of the areatripThe failure probability of the device after considering the redundancy is 0/R and still 0; for B and C areas, the size of R reflects whether the device restart time is sufficient, when R>1, the equipment restart time is more sufficient, the equipment fault probability becomes smaller after the redundancy is considered, and similarly, when R is<When the redundancy rate is 1, the device failure probability becomes large, and when R is 1, the redundancy rate has no influence on the device failure probability.
Therefore, when the redundancy factor R is larger than zero, the device voltage sag fault probability based on the redundancy factor
Figure GDA0002535650640000102
Expressed as:
Figure GDA0002535650640000103
wherein, Ptrip.B(t, u) is the probability of failure after the device is affected by the B zone dip, including Ptrip.B1(t,u)、 Ptrip.B2(t,u)、Ptrip.B3(t, u); when in use
Figure GDA0002535650640000104
When it is taken
Figure GDA0002535650640000105
S4: calculating to obtain a link interruption probability based on the connection mode between the devices and the redundancy-based device voltage sag fault probability obtained in the step S3;
the link outage probability is expressed as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000111
wherein, PsubIn order to determine the probability of a link interruption,
Figure GDA0002535650640000112
the fault probability of the jth parallel device in the ith series device group after being influenced by the sag is obtained; m is the number of the series equipment groups; n is the number of parallel devices in the ith series device group.
S5: according to the link interruption probability, determining the importance ratio of different links, establishing a contrast matrix, calculating the weights of different links by using the contrast matrix, and weighting and summing the link interruption probability to obtain the process voltage sag interruption probability.
Specifically, the specific process of step S5 is:
s5.1: a contrast matrix E is established and,
Figure GDA0002535650640000113
wherein n represents the number of ring segments, eijIndicating how important link i is relative to link j,wherein, the link i is marked as siThe link j is marked as sj；
S5.2: normalizing the contrast matrix by columns, and recording the new matrix as F, wherein each element in the new matrix F is recorded as FijExpressed as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000114
s5.3: summing the F matrix by rows to obtain FiAnd carrying out normalization processing to obtain a link weight vector omega, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000115
wherein, ω isiRepresenting the weight coefficient of the link i;
s5.4: and (3) checking the consistency of the contrast matrix, if the consistency ratio of the contrast matrix meets a preset value, the link weight vector omega of the step S5.3 is an effective value, wherein the consistency ratio CR calculation formula of the contrast matrix is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000116
wherein, CI is a consistency index; the RI is an average random consistency index, and the correspondence between the value thereof and the rank of the contrast matrix is shown in table 1. When the consistency ratio CR<At 0.1, the degree of inconsistency of E is considered to be within the allowable range, and the consistency check is passed. Otherwise, the contrast matrix E, pair E are reconstructedijAnd (6) adjusting.
TABLE 1
Figure GDA0002535650640000121
And weighting and summing the link interruption probability to obtain the process voltage sag interruption probability, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure GDA0002535650640000122
wherein, Psub.iThe interruption probability of the link i; omegaiIs the weight coefficient of the link i.
It should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1. An industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on an analytic hierarchy process is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: acquiring original voltage sag data, and if the original voltage sag is a three-phase unbalanced voltage sag, converting the three-phase normalization of the original voltage sag data into the three-phase balanced voltage sag; if the original voltage sag is a three-phase balanced voltage sag, directly performing step S2;
s2: carrying out voltage sag fault probability evaluation calculation on sensitive equipment in an area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity by utilizing three-phase balance voltage sag data;
s3: correcting the fault probability in the step S2 by utilizing the redundancy of the industrial process to obtain the device voltage sag fault probability based on the redundancy,
the specific process of step S3 is:
defining an industrial process redundancy factor, wherein the industrial process redundancy factor is marked as R, and the expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0002701654340000011
wherein, tsagRepresenting the sag duration, Δ tEIndicating a device restart delay, the PIT value indicating a process immunity time, tres.minWhen the calculation result R is less than or equal to 0, the current industrial process parameter has no redundancy, and the redundancy factor R is greater than zero, the voltage sag fault probability of the equipment based on the redundancy is determined
Figure FDA0002701654340000012
Expressed as:
Figure FDA0002701654340000013
wherein, Ptrip.B(t, u) is the probability of failure after the device is affected by the B zone dip, including Ptrip.B1(t,u)、Ptrip.B2(t,u)、Ptrip.B3(t, u); when in use
Figure FDA0002701654340000014
When it is taken
Figure FDA0002701654340000015
Wherein, if u>UmaxIf the operation area is u, the sensitive equipment operates normally, the current operation area of the sensitive equipment is marked as an area A, namely a normal operation area, and if the operation area is u, the sensitive equipment operates normally<Umin，Tmax<t, recording the current sensitive equipment operation area as an area C, namely a fault area; u denotes the voltage sag amplitude, UmaxRepresenting the voltage sag tolerance upper limit of the sensitive equipment in the area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity;
s4: calculating the link interruption probability considering the redundancy based on the connection mode among the devices and the redundancy-based device voltage sag fault probability calculated by S3;
s5: according to the link interruption probability, determining the importance ratio of different links, establishing a contrast matrix, calculating the weights of different links by using the contrast matrix, and weighting and summing the link interruption probability to obtain the process voltage sag interruption probability.
2. The method for evaluating the interruption probability of the voltage sag of the industrial process based on the analytic hierarchy process of claim 1, wherein in the step S1, the three-phase unbalanced voltage sag is converted into a three-phase balanced voltage sag under the premise of keeping the sag loss energy unchanged, and the three-phase normalization specific process of the original voltage sag data is as follows:
constructing an energy index expression of rectangular voltage sag, which comprises the following specific steps:
E＝(1-Usag 2)×Tsag (1)
wherein, UsagThe sag amplitude of the rectangular sag is pu and TsagIs the sag duration;
respectively calculating the energy indexes E of the three-phase sag through the energy index expressions of the rectangular voltage sagvsSpecifically, the following are shown:
Evs＝Evs.A+Evs.B+Evs.C (2)
wherein E isvs.A、Evs.B、Evs.CA, B, C three-phase sag energy indexes;
keeping the sag duration unchanged, and combining the formula (1) and the formula (2) to obtain the sag amplitude after three-phase normalization, specifically:
Figure FDA0002701654340000021
wherein, U'sagThe normalized sag amplitude value is obtained; u shapesag.A、Usag.B、Usag.CA, B, C three-phase sag amplitudes, respectively.
3. The analytic hierarchy process-based industrial process voltage sag outage probability assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the upper limit and the lower limit of the voltage sag tolerance of the sensitive equipment in the area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity are respectively recorded as: u shapemax、UminAnd respectively recording the upper limit and the lower limit of the voltage sag duration of the sensitive equipment in the area with uncertain equipment voltage tolerance capacity as: t ismax、Tmin；
Dividing the device voltage endurance uncertain region into three regions, respectively recording as a B1 region, a B2 region and a B3 region, setting a voltage sag amplitude U and a duration t, and if U is in the valuemin<u<Umax，Tmin<t<TmaxIf the voltage endurance uncertainty area of the device is recorded as a B1 area; b1 zone sag probability P of equipment failuretrip.B1Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B1(t,u)＝PB1.t(t)×PB1.u(u) (4)
Figure FDA0002701654340000031
Figure FDA0002701654340000032
wherein, T'maxFor a short time maximum duration of voltage change;
if U ismin<u<Umax，Tmax<t, an uncertain region of the voltage endurance capacity of the device is marked as a region B2; b2 zone sag probability P of equipment failuretrip.B2Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B2(t,u)＝Ptrip.B1(Tmax,u)+ΔPtrip.B2(t,u) (7)
Figure FDA0002701654340000033
if u<Umin，Tmin<t<TmaxIf the voltage endurance uncertainty area of the device is recorded as a B3 area; b3 zone sag probability P of equipment failuretrip.B3Is represented as follows:
Ptrip.B3(t,u)＝Ptrip.B1(t,Umin)+ΔPtrip.B3(t,u) (9)
Figure FDA0002701654340000034
4. the analytic hierarchy process-based industrial process voltage sag outage probability assessment method according to claim 1, wherein in step S4, based on the connection mode between devices and the redundancy-based device voltage sag fault probability calculated in step S3, a redundancy-considered link outage probability is calculated, wherein the link outage probability is expressed as follows:
Figure FDA0002701654340000035
wherein, PsubIn order to determine the probability of a link interruption,
Figure FDA0002701654340000036
the fault probability of the jth parallel device in the ith series device group after being influenced by the sag is obtained; m is the number of the series equipment groups; n is the number of parallel devices in the ith series device group.
5. The analytic hierarchy process-based industrial process voltage sag outage probability assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the specific process of step S5 is as follows:
s5.1: establishing a contrast matrix E, E ═ E (E)ij)n×nWherein n represents the number of ring segments, eijRepresenting the importance degree of the link i compared with the link j, wherein the link i is recorded as siThe link j is marked as sj；
S5.2: normalizing the contrast matrix by columns, and recording the new matrix as F, wherein each element in the new matrix F is recorded as FijExpressed as follows:
Figure FDA0002701654340000041
s5.3: summing the F matrix by rows to obtain FiAnd carrying out normalization processing to obtain a link weight vector omega, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002701654340000042
wherein, ω isiRepresenting the weight coefficient of the link i;
s5.4: and (3) checking the consistency of the comparison matrix, if the consistency ratio of the comparison matrix meets a preset value, taking the link weight vector omega of the step S5.3 as an effective value, and weighting and summing the link interruption probability to obtain the process voltage sag interruption probability, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0002701654340000043
wherein, Psub.iThe interruption probability of the link i; omegaiIs the weight coefficient of the link i.
6. The analytic hierarchy process-based industrial process voltage sag outage probability assessment method according to claim 5, wherein the consistency ratio calculation formula of the comparison matrix is as follows:
Figure FDA0002701654340000044
wherein, CI is a consistency index; RI is an average random consistency index, when the consistency ratio is smaller than a preset value, the inconsistency degree of the contrast matrix E is in an allowable range, through consistency check, if the consistency ratio is larger than or equal to the preset value, the contrast matrix E is reconstructed, and E is adjustedij。
CN201910749359.1A 2019-08-14 2019-08-14 Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process Active CN110598990B (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201910749359.1A CN110598990B (en) 2019-08-14 2019-08-14 Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201910749359.1A CN110598990B (en) 2019-08-14 2019-08-14 Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN110598990A CN110598990A (en) 2019-12-20
CN110598990B true CN110598990B (en) 2020-12-29

Family

ID=68854318

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN201910749359.1A Active CN110598990B (en) 2019-08-14 2019-08-14 Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN110598990B (en)

Families Citing this family (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN111260188B (en) * 2020-01-08 2022-06-07 国网福建省电力有限公司 Voltage sag treatment device configuration method
CN111308977B (en) * 2020-03-05 2021-03-23 四川大学 Industrial process modeling method for sag and short-time interruption severity assessment and treatment
CN112285454B (en) * 2020-09-11 2023-05-23 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 Voltage sag severity assessment method based on improved energy index
CN113363975B (en) * 2021-06-18 2022-09-13 国网四川省电力公司技能培训中心 Shared voltage sag compensation system and method considering process immunity time
CN114154798A (en) * 2021-11-08 2022-03-08 深圳供电局有限公司 Voltage sag risk analysis method and device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN114879622B (en) * 2022-07-12 2022-09-27 珠海市鸿瑞信息技术股份有限公司 Industrial control log auditing system and method based on multi-source data

Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103399239A (en) * 2013-08-12 2013-11-20 四川大学 Voltage sag immunity detection method for industrial equipment
CN106384199A (en) * 2016-09-19 2017-02-08 国网四川省电力公司经济技术研究院 Voltage sag assessment method based on process immunization uncertainty

Family Cites Families (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105893757B (en) * 2016-04-01 2021-02-09 国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院 Comprehensive evaluation method for severity of voltage sag
CN109711686A (en) * 2018-12-17 2019-05-03 国家电网有限公司 Voltage dip severity appraisal procedure based on multiobjective decision-making analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Patent Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103399239A (en) * 2013-08-12 2013-11-20 四川大学 Voltage sag immunity detection method for industrial equipment
CN106384199A (en) * 2016-09-19 2017-02-08 国网四川省电力公司经济技术研究院 Voltage sag assessment method based on process immunization uncertainty

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
A New Algorithm to Assess the Sensitive Equipment Fault Frequency Caused By Voltage Sag;WEN-XIONG MO 等;《2018 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution》;20180919;全文 *

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
CN110598990A (en) 2019-12-20

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
CN110598990B (en) Industrial process voltage sag interruption probability assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process
CN110488119B (en) Redundancy-considered industrial process voltage sag interruption probability evaluation method
CN100530889C (en) Integrated power quality adjustment control method and device
CN109188144B (en) Modular multilevel converter submodule capacitor aging on-line monitoring method
WO2016158198A1 (en) System stabilization control device and power system control system
CN102545210A (en) Method and system for optimizing and regulating distribution network power supply reliability indexes
CN105787610A (en) Case-based reasoning method capable of supporting time sequence matching
CN110994589B (en) Online evaluation method and system for frequency modulation capability of power electronic access power system
CN115640748A (en) Dynamic frequency response prediction method for generators after disturbance of power system
CN113972654B (en) Multi-point access regional load inertia time constant identification method
KR102067831B1 (en) Asset management method and apparatus for substation based on reliability indices of power grid
CN109559019A (en) A kind of Electrical Power System Dynamic safety evaluation method based on risk index
CN109950910B (en) Voltage sag reduction method based on process parameter immune time
CN110601215B (en) Dynamic reactive power support capability assessment method and system considering continuous commutation failure constraint
Nor et al. Study of voltage and power stability margins of electrical power system using ANN
CN114583746B (en) Universal modeling method for predicting lowest frequency point of new energy accessed to power grid
CN106960262A (en) UHVDC Transmission Lines forecast failure active reserve capacity appraisal procedure and device
CN111273632A (en) SVG controller parameter identification method based on RTDS test data
CN115224692A (en) Probabilistic load flow calculation method and system considering electro-thermal mechanics dynamics of overhead conductor
CN114636945A (en) Energy storage system and SOH detection method thereof
CN110661268A (en) Dynamic reactive power compensation requirement determining method and system for new energy collection station
CN111654048A (en) Method and system for improving virtual inertia support effect of battery energy storage system
CN112688341B (en) Method and device for selecting configuration site of reactive power compensation equipment of direct-current receiving end power grid
CN103365290A (en) Signal abnormality analysis based hidden fault diagnosis method for generator control system
CN115829323A (en) Safety risk assessment method and system for photovoltaic-charging pile-variable frequency load system

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
GR01 Patent grant
GR01 Patent grant