CN110555573A - Distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method and system - Google Patents

Distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method and system Download PDF

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CN110555573A
CN110555573A CN201810539697.8A CN201810539697A CN110555573A CN 110555573 A CN110555573 A CN 110555573A CN 201810539697 A CN201810539697 A CN 201810539697A CN 110555573 A CN110555573 A CN 110555573A
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burning
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张瑜
宋晓辉
盛万兴
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
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China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
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Abstract

The invention provides a distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method and a system, comprising the following steps: determining an overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity; calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the predefined functional relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability; identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk or not based on the distribution transformer burning probability and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold; and when the distribution transformer has a burning risk, early warning the burning risk. According to the scheme, the probability of the burning risk of the distribution transformer can be reflected according to the load change condition of the distribution transformer, and technical support is provided for operation and maintenance personnel of the distribution transformer.

Description

Distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method and system
Technical Field
the invention belongs to the technical field of risk analysis and control of a power distribution network, and particularly relates to a method and a system for early warning of burning-out risk of a distribution transformer.
Background
With the rapid development of economy in China, electricity consumption in daily life and industrial electricity consumption are rapidly increased, partial low-voltage lines with continuously increased electricity consumption cannot be maintained, and overload and short circuit occur sometimes. Due to the sharp increase of current, the temperature of a coil of the distribution transformer is rapidly increased, so that the insulation is accelerated to age, fragments are formed to fall off, the wire body is exposed, turn-to-turn short circuit is caused, and the distribution transformer is burnt out. Once the distribution transformer is burnt out, unnecessary economic loss can be caused for power supply enterprises, and serious negative effects can be caused to the domestic electricity consumption of residents. How to distinguish and early-warning the burning risk of the distribution transformer is very important to the overhaul and maintenance of the distribution transformer.
at present, distribution transformer operation maintenance personnel often adopt reinforcement device protection test and operation protection control measures to prevent the transformer from being burnt, however, the method cannot track the operation state of the distribution transformer in real time and cannot realize online monitoring and early warning of the risk of the distribution transformer; the equipment state maintenance technology is a commonly used on-line monitoring and early warning technology for the running state of the distribution transformer, however, the adoption of the state maintenance technology usually needs to sense the change of various characteristic indexes of the running state of the distribution transformer, such as the temperature, the gas composition and the like of the distribution transformer by additionally arranging various additional sensors, and the monitoring and early warning cost is extremely high; especially, when one or more distribution transformers cannot be determined to be burnt, a large number of historical samples need to be collected for analysis and investigation in the maintenance process, so that the detection accuracy cannot be realized, the workload is large, and the economic expenditure is increased.
disclosure of Invention
in order to solve the problems, the invention provides a distribution transformer burning risk early warning method and a distribution transformer burning risk early warning system, which provide technical support for on-line monitoring and management of the running state of distribution equipment and overhaul and maintenance of distribution equipment operators by obtaining the number of overloaded distribution transformers in different overload multiple intervals and the caused probability of burning of the distribution transformers, and can accurately identify the burning risk of the distribution transformers even under the condition of a small amount of data and incapability of determining the load.
The purpose of the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
A distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method comprises the following steps:
Determining an overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity;
Calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the predefined functional relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability;
Identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burn-out risk based on the distribution transformer burn-out probability and a predefined distribution transformer burn-out threshold; and when the distribution transformer has a burning risk, early warning the burning risk.
Preferably, the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability includes:
And calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer under different overload multiples according to the collected number of the distribution transformers which run in the historical overload state and the number of the burnt distribution transformers, and giving a functional relation between the overload multiples and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.
Further, the collecting the number of distribution transformers in historical overload operation and the number of distribution transformers burnt out includes:
and acquiring the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in intervals (a, b) and the number of burnt distribution transformers in a predefined unit time and distribution area.
further, the probability of burning out of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) is determined by:
in the formula (C)1,C2…Cn) And (D)1,D2…Dn) The number of the overloaded distribution transformers and the number of the burnt distribution transformers in the n groups in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) are respectively.
Further, for q1,q2…qnand any q, determining the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer as follows: :
In the formula, epsilon is a random variable, k is a parameter in a function relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, alpha is a distribution transformer overload multiple threshold value, and x is a distribution transformer overload multiple.
Further, parameters k in a functional relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability are determined according to the following formula:
In the formula, Ci、Dithe number of the overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) and the number of the distribution transformers burnt out due to overload in the ith group of samples are obtained;The sample value of the average burning probability of the ith group is represented, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n.
further, identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burn-out risk based on the distribution transformer burn-out probability and a predefined distribution transformer burn-out threshold includes: acquiring the overload multiple of the current distribution transformer, and calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operation state according to the formula q ═ f (x, k);k value (k) representing n sets of samples1,k2…kn) Mean value; i represents the ith group sampleThen, the process is carried out;
If the distribution transformer burning probability under the current operation state is larger than a predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold value, judging that the distribution transformer is in a burning risk operation state; and if the distribution transformer burning probability in the current operation state is calculated to be smaller than or equal to the predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, judging that the distribution transformer is in a normal operation state.
A distribution transformer burnout risk early warning system, the system comprising:
The acquisition module is used for determining an overload multiple interval where the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity;
the calculation module is used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current running state according to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload severity and the distribution transformer burning probability;
and the judging module is used for identifying whether the distribution transformer has the burning risk or not based on the distribution transformer burning probability and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold value.
Preferably, the calculation module includes:
The acquisition submodule is used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer under different overload multiples according to the acquired number of the distribution transformers which are operated in the historical overload and the number of the burnt distribution transformers;
and the determining submodule is used for determining the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.
Further, the acquisition submodule includes:
And the acquisition unit is used for acquiring the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in intervals (a and b) and the number of burnt distribution transformers in a predefined unit time and distribution area.
a determination unit for determining the probability of burning out of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) by:
in the formula (C)1,C2…Cn) And (D)1,D2…Dn) The number of the overloaded distribution transformers and the number of the burnt distribution transformers in the n groups in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) are respectively.
Further, the determining sub-module includes:
Definition unit for q1,q2…qnAnd any q, determining the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer as follows:
in the formula, epsilon is a random variable, k is a parameter in a function relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, alpha is a distribution transformer overload multiple threshold value, and x is a distribution transformer overload multiple.
Further, the definition unit includes: a determining subunit, configured to determine a parameter k in a functional relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability by using the following formula:
in the formula, Ci、DiThe number of the overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) and the number of the distribution transformers burnt out due to overload in the ith group of samples are obtained;the sample value of the average burning probability of the ith group is represented, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n.
Preferably, the determination module includes a determination submodule configured to obtain an overload multiple of the current distribution transformer, and calculate a burnout probability of the distribution transformer in the current operating state according to a formula q ═ f (x, k); if the distribution transformer burning probability under the current operation state is larger than a predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold value, judging that the distribution transformer is in a burning risk operation state; and if the distribution transformer burning probability in the current operation state is calculated to be smaller than or equal to the predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, judging that the distribution transformer is in a normal operation state.
Compared with the closest prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
The invention provides a distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method and a distribution transformer burnout risk early warning system, which aim to determine an overload multiple interval where distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity; according to a predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, realizing the distribution transformer burnout risk early warning based on the functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the burnout probability, and calculating the distribution transformer burnout probability of an overload multiple interval in which the current operation state is located; the method provides technical support for on-line monitoring and management of the running state of the distribution equipment and overhaul and maintenance of distribution equipment operators by obtaining the number of the overload distribution transformers in different overload multiple intervals and the caused probability of burning out the distribution transformers, and can accurately identify the burning out risk of the distribution transformers even under the condition of a small amount of data and incapability of determining the load; the method has the advantages of good practicability and simple calculation. Whether the distribution transformer has the risk of burning is identified based on the probability of burning the distribution transformer and the predefined distribution transformer burning threshold value, and when the distribution transformer has the risk of burning, the risk of burning is pre-warned. A new idea is provided for on-line monitoring and maintenance of the running state of the power distribution equipment. The method has the advantages that the effective judgment of the overload burning risk of the distribution transformer is realized, the technical support is provided for the on-line monitoring and management of the running state of the distribution equipment and the overhaul and maintenance of the running personnel of the distribution equipment, the burning risk of the distribution transformer can be accurately identified even under the condition that a small amount of data and the load cannot be determined, and the economic cost is greatly saved.
drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a distribution transformer burning risk early warning method and a distribution transformer burning risk early warning system, which aim to acquire the number of distribution transformers which are monitored and counted in historical unit time and run in an overload mode and the number of distribution transformer burning caused by the overload mode, and calculate distribution transformer burning probability corresponding to different overload severity degrees; determining a function mapping relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple x and the distribution transformer burnout probability y by adopting methods such as probability statistics, data fitting, least square parameter estimation and the like; and aiming at a specific distribution transformer, calculating the probability of the distribution transformer being burnt in the current operation state according to the functional relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning, comparing the probability with a preset distribution transformer burning probability threshold value, and judging whether the distribution transformer has overload burning risk or not.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for early warning of the burning risk of a distribution transformer specifically comprises the following steps:
S1, determining an overload multiple interval where the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity;
s2, calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability;
S3, identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk or not based on the distribution transformer burning probability and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold value; when the distribution transformer has the risk of burning out, the early warning is carried out to the risk of burning out.
in step S1, the distribution change overload severity is obtained by detection;
In step S2, the pre-defining a functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload severity and the distribution transformer burnout probability includes:
And defining the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer according to the collected number of the distribution transformers and the number of the burnt distribution transformers in historical overload operation and the burning probability of the distribution transformers under different overload multiples.
the collected historical overload running distribution transformer number and distribution transformer burnout number comprise: and acquiring the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in intervals (a, b) and the number of burnt distribution transformers in a preset unit time and a distribution area. If the number C of overload distribution transformers with overload severity in the sections (a, b) and the number D of distribution transformers burnt due to overload are obtained, calculating the average probability of the distribution transformers burnt due to overload in different overload multiple sections, and determining the functional relation q between the distribution transformer overload severity x and the distribution transformer burning probability y as f (x, k) by adopting methods such as probability statistics, data fitting, parameter estimation and the like.
wherein the probability of burnout of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) is determined by:
in the formula (C)1,C2…Cn) And (D)1,D2…Dn) The number of the overloaded distribution transformers and the number of the burnt distribution transformers in the n groups in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) are respectively.
setting the overload multiple of distribution transformerThe functional relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the burning probability is q ═ f (x, k); wherein, λ and k are both parameters in the relation of the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability function.
according to the functional relation q ═ f (x, k), the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operation state is calculated as follows:
extracting the sample value of the ith group of the average probability of burning of the composition from the data samples, so that the following equation is satisfied:
solving an unknown parameter k in the function f (x, k) by adopting an iterative method such as Newton method, dichotomy method and the like, wherein a, b, C and D are known,Namely as above (q)1,q2…qn) Q in (1)i，1≤i≤n。
And solving the value of k obtained under the ith group of samples. n sets of samples, resulting in n k values, i.e. (k)1,k2…kn) To obtain (k)1,k2…kn) Mean value of The value of (A) is verified by a least square method; if the verification fails, a new group of samples is selected again for iterative operation, and if the verification succeeds, the new group of samples is selected again for iterative operationWhen q is substituted by f (x, k), the result isthe method is a functional relation expression between the distribution transformer overload multiple x and the distribution transformer burnout probability q.
step S3, identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burn-out risk based on the distribution transformer burn-out probability and a predefined distribution transformer burn-out threshold specifically includes: in practical application, early warning of the burning risk of the distribution transformer can be realized according to the determined functional relationship, and the specific judgment method comprises the following steps: if the overload severity condition of the distribution transformer can be monitored, calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operation state (under the overload condition) according to a functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer, and if the calculated burning probability of the distribution transformer is smaller than a preset distribution transformer burning probability threshold value, judging that the distribution transformer is in the normal operation state; and if the calculated distribution transformer burnout probability is larger than a preset distribution transformer burnout probability threshold, judging that the distribution transformer is in a distribution transformer burnout risk state, and performing distribution transformer burnout risk early warning.
Based on the same invention concept, the invention also provides a distribution transformer burnout risk early warning system, which comprises:
The acquisition module is used for determining an overload multiple interval where the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity;
the calculation module is used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the predefined functional relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability;
the judging module is used for identifying whether the distribution transformer has the burning risk or not based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold value; when the distribution transformer has the risk of burning out, the early warning is carried out to the risk of burning out.
The calculation module comprises an acquisition submodule and a calculation submodule, wherein the acquisition submodule is used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer under different overload multiples according to the acquired number of the distribution transformers which run under historical overload and the number of the burnt distribution transformers;
And the determining submodule is used for determining the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.
wherein, gather the submodule and include again: and the acquisition unit is used for acquiring the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in intervals (a and b) and the number of burnt distribution transformers in a predefined unit time and distribution area.
A determination unit for determining the probability of burning out of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) by:
In the formula (C)1,C2…Cn) And (D)1,D2…Dn) The number of the overloaded distribution transformers and the number of the burnt distribution transformers in the n groups in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) are respectively.
the determination submodule in turn comprises a definition unit for q1,q2…qnAnd any q, determining the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer as follows:
in the formula, epsilon is a random variable, k is a parameter in a function relation of an overload multiple and a distribution transformer burnout probability, alpha is a distribution transformer overload multiple threshold value, and x is a distribution transformer overload multiple; if x is less than or equal to alpha, the burning probability q of the distribution transformer caused by overload is 0; if x > α, q increases with the distribution transformer overload factor.
The defining unit comprises a determining subunit, which is used for determining the parameter k in the functional relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability through the following formula:
In the formula, Ci、DiThe number of the overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) and the number of the distribution transformers burnt out due to overload in the ith group of samples are obtained;The sample value of the average burning probability of the ith group is represented, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n.
The judging module comprises a judging submodule and a judging submodule, wherein the judging submodule is used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operation state according to the overload multiple of the current distribution transformer and the formula q ═ f (x, k); ,k value (k) representing n sets of samples1,k2…kn) Mean value; i represents the ith group of samples;
if the distribution transformer burning probability under the current operation state is larger than a predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold value, judging that the distribution transformer is in a burning risk operation state; and if the distribution transformer burning probability in the current operation state is calculated to be smaller than or equal to the predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, judging that the distribution transformer is in a normal operation state.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
the present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present application and not for limiting the protection scope thereof, and although the present application is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: numerous variations, modifications, and equivalents will occur to those skilled in the art upon reading the present application and are within the scope of the claims appended hereto.

Claims (13)

1. A distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining an overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity;
calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the predefined functional relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability;
and identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk or not based on the distribution transformer burning probability and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold, and when the distribution transformer has the burning risk, early warning the burning risk.
2. the method of claim 1, wherein the pre-defining a functional relationship between a distribution transformation overload multiple and a distribution transformation burnout probability comprises:
And calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer under different overload multiples according to the collected number of the distribution transformers which run in the historical overload state and the number of the burnt distribution transformers, and giving a functional relation between the overload multiples and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein collecting the number of distribution transformers that have historically been overloaded and the number of distribution transformer burnouts comprises:
And acquiring the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in intervals (a, b) and the number of burnt distribution transformers in a predefined unit time and distribution area.
4. A method according to claim 3, wherein the probability of burning out of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval (a, b) is determined by:
in the formula (C)1,C2…Cn) And (D)1,D2…Dn) The number of the overloaded distribution transformers and the number of the burnt distribution transformers in the n groups in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) are respectively.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein for q, the1,q2…qnAnd any q, determining the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer as follows:
in the formula, epsilon is a random variable, k is a parameter in a function relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, alpha is a distribution transformer overload multiple threshold value, and x is a distribution transformer overload multiple.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the parameter k in the functional relationship between the multiple of overload and the distribution transform burnout probability is determined by:
In the formula, Ci、DiThe number of the overloaded distribution transformers of the ith group of samples in the overload multiple interval (a, b) and the number of the distribution transformers burnt out caused by overload are included;the sample value of the average burning probability of the ith group is represented, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein identifying whether the distribution transformer is at risk of burnout based on the distribution transformer burnout probability and a predefined distribution transformer burnout threshold comprises:
Acquiring the overload multiple of the current distribution transformer, and calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operation state according to the formula q ═ f (x, k); wherein, K value (k) representing n sets of samples1,k2…kn) Mean value; i represents the ith group of samples;
If the distribution transformer burning probability under the current operation state is larger than a predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold value, judging that the distribution transformer is in a burning risk operation state;
And if the distribution transformer burning probability in the current operation state is calculated to be smaller than or equal to the predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, judging that the distribution transformer is in a normal operation state.
8. a distribution transformer burnout risk early warning system, characterized in that, the system includes:
the acquisition module is used for determining an overload multiple interval where the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity;
the calculation module is used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the predefined functional relation between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability;
And the judging module is used for identifying whether the distribution transformer has the burning risk or not based on the distribution transformer burning probability and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold value, and when the distribution transformer has the burning risk, early warning is carried out on the burning risk.
9. The system of claim 8, wherein the calculation module comprises:
the acquisition submodule is used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer under different overload multiples according to the acquired number of the distribution transformers which are operated in the historical overload and the number of the burnt distribution transformers;
and the determining submodule is used for determining the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.
10. the system of claim 9, wherein the acquisition sub-module comprises:
and the acquisition unit is used for acquiring the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in intervals (a and b) and the number of burnt distribution transformers in a predefined unit time and distribution area.
A determination unit for determining the probability of burning out of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) by:
in the formula (C)1,C2…Cn) And (D)1,D2…Dn) The number of the overloaded distribution transformers and the number of the burnt distribution transformers in the n groups in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) are respectively.
11. The system of claim 10, wherein the determination submodule comprises:
definition unit for q1,q2…qnand any q, determining the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operation state according to the functional relation between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer as follows:
in the formula, epsilon is a random variable, k is a parameter in a function relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, alpha is a distribution transformer overload multiple threshold value, and x is a distribution transformer overload multiple.
12. the system of claim 11, wherein the definition unit comprises: a determining subunit, configured to determine a parameter k in a functional relation between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability by using the following formula:
in the formula, Ci、DiThe number of the overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple intervals (a, b) and the number of the distribution transformers burnt out due to overload in the ith group of samples are obtained;the sample value of the ith group representing the average burning probability of the ith group is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n.
13. The system of claim 8, wherein the determining module comprises a determining submodule configured to obtain a current overload multiple of the distribution transformer, and calculate a burning probability of the distribution transformer in a current operating state according to a formula q ═ f (x, k); wherein,K value (k) representing n sets of samples1,k2…kn) Mean value; i represents the ith group of samples;
If the distribution transformer burning probability under the current operation state is larger than a predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold value, judging that the distribution transformer is in a burning risk operation state; and if the distribution transformer burning probability in the current operation state is calculated to be smaller than or equal to the predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, judging that the distribution transformer is in a normal operation state.
CN201810539697.8A 2018-05-30 2018-05-30 Distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method and system Pending CN110555573A (en)

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