CN110533287A - Summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies the building and application of appraisal model - Google Patents
Summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies the building and application of appraisal model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses buildings and application that a kind of summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies appraisal model, it is intended to solve the prior art can not accurate reproduction, detection influence of the crop field Droughts to yield the technical issues of.Step constructs summer corn arid diaster loss model to the present invention in the following manner: using 10 days or the number of days of local habit determined the summer corn time of infertility as step-lengthnA growing stage；According to irrigation tests data between corn field of summer, using interpolation calculation summer corn theiTo Sensitivity index to water when a growing stageλ i ；The crop coefficient in each stage is calculated according to local irrigation testsK ci ；It establishes summer corn arid disaster loss and quantifies appraisal model:.The set up summer corn arid disaster loss of the present invention quantifies appraisal model, can accurate reproduction, detect influence of the crop field Droughts to yield, and it is at low cost, timeliness is strong, foundation can be provided for drought resisting mitigation, promote the development of agricultural economy.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of agricultural production technologies, and in particular to summer corn arid disaster loss quantify the building of appraisal model with
Using.
Background technique
The meteorological disaster one of great to impact of agricultural production when arid, and the yield quantitative detection that Droughts influence
It is one of the problem of agricultural weather area research.
Summer corn is important one of the summer crops in Henan Province, is play an important role in province's autumn grain crops yield forming.
However, summer corn is also the crops for being easiest to be influenced by summer hot and dry weather, thus, influence of the research arid for corn has
Important realistic meaning.
Currently, the quantitative detection of the influence for arid to crop yield is usually to start in terms of two, first is that utilizing
Crop historical yield data, by various methods the influence by Droughts to crop yield separated from ultimate output into
Row estimation；Second is that studying the crop yield representation under different controlled levels, and determine different disasters by field Control experiment
Influence of the grade to yield.However, the statistics for being currently based on historical data is difficult to various disasters or unfavorable conditions to yield
It separates with influencing differentiation, and existing field trial method is not only at high cost, the period is long, and it is also difficult to restore mould
Draw up the actual conditions of broadacre agriculture production.
Therefore, need to research and develop it is a kind of it is mature it is effective, be able to carry out the prediction of summer corn arid Yield loss or monitoring
Method.
Summary of the invention
It is quantitative that the technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of summer corn arid disaster loss suitable for Henan growing area
The construction method of appraisal model and application, to solve the prior art can not accurate reproduction, monitoring crop field Droughts to yield
Influence the technical issues of.
It should be pointed out that each growing stage of summer corn can not independently form yield, each of which growing stage is only
An organic component of entire growth course, thus summer corn in the generation arid of each growing stage all eventually
Influence its yield.For this purpose, the present invention is sent out according to the effective growth for requiring and combining Henan growing area summer corn in production
It educates characteristic and rationally determines each growing stage of summer corn and corresponding Sensitivity index to water, it is established that the summer corn suitable for the region
The multiplying-type model of time of infertility drought impact quantitative assessment, experimental study show that the multiplied model is anti-to the target for constituting yield
It reflects actual production that is more sensitive, more meeting in Summer Maize Production and loses composition mode.
For this purpose, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is as follows:
Design the construction method that a kind of summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies appraisal model, comprising the following steps:
(1) using 10 days or the summer corn time of infertility is determined as by the number of days of local habit as step-lengthnA growing stage；
(2) according to irrigation tests data between corn field of summer, using interpolation calculation summer corn theiTo moisture when a growing stage
Sensitivity Indexλ i , wherein foriNatural number, and 1≤i≤n；
(3) crop coefficient of each growing stage of summer corn is obtained according to local irrigation tests calculating or crop reference evapotranspiration empirical valueK ci ；
(4) summer corn arid disaster loss is established according to the above parameter to quantify appraisal model as follows:
--- formula (I)；
In formula,RFor yield of Summer Corn loss late；CWD i Indicate summer corn theiThe water deficit rate of a growing stage, under
Formula calculates:
--- formula (II)；
In formula (II),ET i It is summer corniThe actual evapotranspiration of a growing stage；ET mi It is summer corniA fertility rank
Maximum evapotranspiration when section adequate water supply；
It is describedET i It is calculated by following formula:
--- formula (III)；
In formula (III),PFor precipitation,IFor irrigation volume,S g For the increment of groundwater,ΔWFor summer corn root layer soil storage
Variable quantity；
It is describedET mi It is calculated by following formula:
--- formula (IV)；
In formula (IV),ET oi For the reference evapotranspiration of each growing stage of summer corn.
Preferably, the reference evapotranspiration of each growing stageET oi It is calculated by following formula:
--- formula (V)；
In formula (V),R n For surface net radiation flux density；GFor soil heat flux density；TFor temperature on average at 2m height；U 2 For
Wind speed at 2m height；e s For saturation vapour pressure；e a For actual water vapor pressure；ΔFor the saturation vapour pressure slope of curve；γFor wet and dry bulb
Hygrometer constant.
Preferably, for Henan growing area, in actual evapotranspirationET i Calculating in,S g Value is 0.
Preferably, in the step (1),n=10 or 11.
Preferably, for Henan growing area, the crop coefficient of each growing stage of summer cornK ci Value is as follows:
。
Preferably, for Henan growing area, summer corn is as follows in the Sensitivity index to water value of each growing stage:
。
A kind of summer corn arid disaster loss based on constructed model is provided and quantifies assessment method, comprising the following steps:
(1) search or calculate the reference evapotranspiration of each corresponding growing stage of summer cornET 0 ；
(2) each growing stage is calculated according to formula (IV)ET mi ；
(3) precipitation in each growing stage of summer corn is measuredP, irrigation volumeI；
(4) according to the soil moisture content transformation amount for calculating each corresponding growing stage at the beginning of each growing stage with the soil moisture content of stage MoΔW；
(5) according to the precipitation in each corresponding growing stageP, irrigation volumeIWith soil moisture content transformation amountΔWCalculated result utilizes
Formula (I) calculates each growing stageET i ；
(6) by each corresponding growing stageET i WithET mi Calculated result substitute into formula (II) calculate each corresponding growing stageCWD i ；
(7) by each corresponding growing stageCWD i And Sensitivity index to waterλ i Formula (I) is substituted into get the corresponding fertility rank of summer corn out
The production loss rate of section or full growing stageR。
In Henan, the summer corn time of infertility can be divided into for 10 or 11 stages by growing area.
Preferably, for Henan growing area, crop coefficient of the summer corn in each growing stageK ci Value is as follows:
。
Preferably, for Henan growing area, summer corn is as follows in the Sensitivity index to water value of each growing stage:
。
Compared with prior art, main advantageous effects of the invention are:
1. the present invention establish it is more sensitive, more meet the actual summer corn arid disaster loss in field and quantify appraisal model, to establish
Play summer corn arid disaster loss and quantify assessment method, it is at low cost, timeliness is strong, can accurate reproduction, estimate crop field Droughts
Influence to yield of Summer Corn.
2. the present invention can estimate summer corn caused by stage arid in any time of summer corn breeding time
Production loss rate can intuitively evaluate and test out the arid influence to summer corn end yield that each growing stage is occurred, in turn accordingly
The summer corn stage most sensitive to moisture is specified, and then intervene in advance (such as by limited water resource assignment to most quick to moisture
The stage of sense, to improve water use efficiency to greatest extent), it is damaged because of arid to corn end yield bring with being reduced or avoided
It loses, provides scientific basis for drought resisting mitigation, promote the development of agricultural economy.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 summer corn Growing season is using ten days as the Sensitivity index to water curve graph of step-length.
Fig. 2 is the typical dry year testing result contrast verification figure of history.
Fig. 3 is that summer corn arid in 2013 and 2014 subtracts yield distribution；In figure, left figure is 2013, and right figure is 2014.
Specific embodiment
Illustrate a specific embodiment of the invention with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, but following embodiment is used only in detail
It describes the bright present invention in detail, does not limit the scope of the invention in any way.
Actual evapotranspiration in farmland: refer under the conditions of practical Soil Water, the sum of Evaporation and transpiration.Due to
The complexity of Evapotranspiration Processes, directly measurement Actual evapotranspiration on crop fields is relatively difficult, generally utilizes principle of water balance at present, passes through
Soil moisture content is measured to estimate.
Maximum evapotranspiration: refer to that the no disease and pests harm crop of growth over a large area is being given when soil moisture and fertility are suitable for
The total of transpiration required when maximum output potentiality, Evaporation among plants and composition plant body moisture is obtained in fixed growing environment
With.
Sensitivity index to water: index of the reflection crop yield to certain stage water deficit sensitivity.
Related test material is commercial product unless otherwise instructed in the examples below；Related test
Method is unless otherwise instructed conventional method.
Embodiment 1: building summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies appraisal model
(1) model equation
Water production functions are crop fractional yield and each stage phase in breeding time under conditions of description moisture cannot be sufficiently fed
To the mathematical model of the relationship of evapotranspiration, also referred to as crop divides growing stage water consumption-Relationship with Yield model.Inventor is in the mould
On the basis of type, in conjunction with long-term, a large amount of scientific research, verification experimental verification, description production loss rate and crop rank are established
The mathematical model of the lack of moisture rate relationship of section:
--- formula (I)；
In formula,CWD i Indicate the water deficit rate in certain stage；RIndicate production loss rate；λ i It is crop to the sensitivity of water deficit
Spend index；nThe growing stage number divided for the summer corn time of infertility.
Wherein, Sensitivity index to water is a term in agricultural meteorology field, and value size reflects crop different phase
To the sensitivity of water shortage；Its value is usually to be acquired according to test data using multiple regression procedure.In embodiments of the present invention,
Disaster monitoring, forecast or assessment were usually carried out for step-length with ten days or 10 days in view of in business service, to adapt to agricultural weather industry
Demand for services of being engaged in simultaneously is required based on actual effect, in the case where combining Henan growing area summer corn growth and development characteristic, by summer corn
It is 11 stages that the time of infertility, which was step-length divided stages with 10 days, and according to irrigation tests data, take 10 days for a stage (i.e.
Using ten days as step-length).
Interpolation method is recycled to acquire the Sensitivity index to water of local area, method particularly includes:
First according to Agricultural meteorology operation demand for services, by corn growth stage with 10 days for step-length, it is divided into 10~11 stages；
In existing correlative study, [corn growth stage is pressed 15 days averagely as a stage by Sun Jingsheng etc. (1998), and measurement obtains 7 stages
Sensitivity index to water] on the basis of, in conjunction with the long-term experimental study of inventor, it is sensitive to obtain the related corn moisture in Henan area
The result of study of index.Detailed process is as follows:
The Sensitivity index to water in (1998) 7 stages such as Sun Jingsheng is interpolated into 10~11 ranks using linear interpolation method
Section, obtain a set of new Sensitivity index to water (Sensitivity index to water although will receive environmental factor for example soil moisture content, temperature,
The influence of the factors such as rainfall, but be metastable under certain condition；It is filled in the present invention by the way that test measurement is different for many years
Irrigate and meteorological condition under Sensitivity index to water, take its average value as it is a certain area as a result, thus have stable characterization
Characteristic), as shown in figure 1 and table 1.
Table 1 is using ten days as the Sensitivity index to water of step-length
。
In addition,CWDiBy being calculated under formula:
--- formula (II)；
In formula,ET i For each growing stage actual evapotranspiration,ET mi Maximum evapotranspiration when for each growing stage adequate water supply.
Actual evapotranspiration is according to following Field Water Balance equation calculation:
--- formula (III)；
In formula,PFor precipitation,IFor irrigation volume,S g For the increment of groundwater,ΔWFor the storage of summer corn root layer (0~50cm) soil
Water variable quantity.In Henan area, since level of ground water is deeper, underground water is few for effective increment of summer corn, therefore,
UsuallyS g It is negligible.
Maximum evapotranspiration uses Penman-Monteith(FAO, 1998) formula and crop coefficient calculate, and influence maximum steaming
The factor for dissipating amount mainly has crop species, weather conditions and growing stage, calculation formula are as follows:
--- formula (IV)；
In formula,K ci For the crop coefficient in each stage, each stage is calculated according to Henan area irrigation testsK ci Value is shown in Table 2；ET oi
For the reference evapotranspiration in each stage, using Penman-Monteith(FAO, 1998) it calculates, it may be assumed that
--- formula (V)；
In formula:ET 0 For evapotranspiration rate of referential crops (mm/d)；R n For surface net radiation flux density (MJ/m2D)；GFor Soil Thermal
Flux density (MJ/m2D)；TFor temperature on average (DEG C) at 2m height；U 2 For the wind speed (m/s) at 2m height；e s For saturated water
Vapour pressure (kPa)；e a For actual water vapor pressure (kPa)；ΔFor the saturation vapour pressure slope of curve (kPa/ DEG C)；γFor wet-and-dry bulb hygrometer
Constant (kPa/ DEG C).
Each stage crop coefficient of table 2KcValue
。
(2) sensitive degree exponent of the summer corn to water deficit
It determinesλ i Method mainly pass through and carry out artificial moisture Control experiment, the different in moisture item of each growing stage of crop is set
Part is referred to by water balance equation calculation actual evapotranspiration using the moisture-sensitive that the method for regression analysis calculates different phase
Numberλ i .Inventor has carried out Sensitivity index to water for Henan different regions, Different Cropλ i The study found that summer corn take out it is male
Phase Sensitivity index to water is maximum, shows that the stage is most sensitive to moisture, influence of the water deficit of same degree to yield is most
It greatly, is then successively pustulation period, jointing stage and seedling stage.
Embodiment 2: the checking research of summer corn arid disaster loss quantitative detection model
Further to verify assessment models and parameter to the accuracy of summer corn arid disaster loss impact evaluation result, select Henan northern
Several typical dry years in history, calculating corresponding production loss rate using the model of formula (I) in embodiment 1 is to calculate to subtract
Yield calculates the relative meteorological yield in corresponding time as real using moving average method according to each county actual production data over the years
Underproduction rate in border verifies evaluating result by the comparison of the two.
Wherein, steps are as follows for the calculating of production loss rate:
(1) each growing stage is calculated according to Penman-Monteith formula and refers to evapotranspirationET 0 ；
(2) each growing stage is calculated by formula (IV)ET mi ；
(3) precipitation in each growing stage of summer corn is measuredP, irrigation volumeI；
(4) according to the soil moisture for calculating each corresponding growing stage at the beginning of each growing stage of summer corn with the soil moisture content of stage Mo
Variable quantityΔW；
(5) it is calculated according to precipitation, irrigation volume and the soil moisture content transformation amount in corresponding breeding time as a result, utilizing water balance side
Journey calculates each growing stageET i ；
(6) by each growing stage of summer cornET i WithET mi Calculated result and Sensitivity index to waterλ i Formula (I) is substituted into, that is, is calculated
Obtain corresponding production loss rate.
As a result as shown in Fig. 2 and table 3,4.
One of typical dry year evaluating result verifying of 3 history of table
。
The two of the typical dry year evaluating result verifying of 4 history of table
。
From data comparison as can be seen that although the practical underproduction rate of underproduction rate of Most models calculating is higher, absolutely
Between numerical value the two also relatively, the related coefficient of two groups of data shows that the model of formula (I) being capable of accurate table up to 0.9084
Sign reflects the influence that a situation arises to yield of Summer Corn of practical arid.
Embodiment 3: Henan summer corn arid disaster loss quantitative detection model checking research
2013 and Henan Growing season arid in 2014 are calculated to the shadow of yield of Summer Corn according to the model of formula (I) in embodiment 1
Ring as a result, arids in 2013 and arid period of right time in 2014 be be the critical stage of yield composition before and after taking out male loose powder, because
This, will cause large effect to yield in the area of non-irrigated condition.
Calculated result is as shown in Figure 3.
It can be seen that the biggish area of 2 years underproduction rates mainly Yu Xi, Henan from underproduction rate distribution map mediumly, big portion
Regional underproduction rate all between 10~20%, some areas 20% or more, 2014 Nian Yudong and Henan south some areas also by dry
Drought influences to cause certain underproduction, between 5~10%.Subtract yield distribution and practical arid a situation arises and is consistent substantially.
The present invention is described in detail above in conjunction with drawings and examples, still, those of skill in the art
Member is it is understood that without departing from the purpose of the present invention, can also carry out each design parameter in above-described embodiment
Change, forms multiple specific embodiments, is common variation range of the invention, is no longer described in detail one by one herein.
Claims (10)
1. the construction method that a kind of summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies appraisal model, which comprises the following steps:
(1) using 10 days or the summer corn time of infertility is determined as by the number of days of local habit as step-lengthnA growing stage；
(2) according to irrigation tests data between corn field of summer, using interpolation calculation summer corn theiTo moisture when a growing stage
Sensitivity Indexλ i , wherein foriNatural number, and 1≤i≤n；
(3) crop coefficient of each growing stage of summer corn is obtained according to local irrigation tests calculating or crop reference evapotranspiration empirical valueK ci ；
(4) following summer corn arid disaster loss is established according to above-mentioned parameter quantify appraisal model:
--- formula (I)；
In formula (I),RFor yield of Summer Corn loss late；CWD i Indicate summer corn theiThe water deficit rate of a growing stage, by
Following formula is calculated:
--- formula (II)；
In formula (II),ET i It is summer corniThe actual evapotranspiration of a growing stage；ET mi It is summer corniA fertility rank
Maximum evapotranspiration when section adequate water supply；Wherein,
It is describedET i It is calculated by following formula:
--- formula (III)；
In formula (III),PFor precipitation,IFor irrigation volume,S g For the increment of groundwater,ΔWFor root layer soil storage variable quantity；
It is describedET mi It is calculated by following formula:
--- formula (IV)；
In formula (IV),ET oi For the reference evapotranspiration of each growing stage of summer corn.
2. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies the construction method of appraisal model according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described each
The reference evapotranspiration of growing stageET oi It is calculated by following formula:
--- formula (V)；
In formula (V),R n For surface net radiation flux density；GFor soil heat flux density；TFor temperature on average at 2m height；U 2 For
Wind speed at 2m height；e s For saturation vapour pressure；e a For actual water vapor pressure；ΔFor the saturation vapour pressure slope of curve；γFor wet and dry bulb
Hygrometer constant.
3. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies the construction method of appraisal model according to claim 1, which is characterized in that for river
Southern growing area is calculating the actual evapotranspirationET i When,S g Value is 0.
4. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies the construction method of appraisal model according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described
In step (1),n=10 or 11.
5. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies the construction method of appraisal model according to claim 1, which is characterized in that for river
Southern growing area, the crop coefficient of each growing stage of summer cornK ci Value is as follows:
。
6. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies the construction method of appraisal model according to claim 1, which is characterized in that for river
Southern growing area, summer corn are as follows in the Sensitivity index to water value of each growing stage:
。
7. the summer corn arid disaster loss based on model constructed by claim 1 quantifies assessment method, which is characterized in that including following
Step:
(1) search or calculate the reference evapotranspiration that summer corn corresponds to growing stageET 0 ；
(2) formula (IV) calculates each corresponding growing stage of summer corn according to claim 1ET mi ；
(3) measure or search the precipitation in record each corresponding growing stage of summer cornP, irrigation volumeI；
(4) soil moisture for calculating each corresponding growing stage with the soil moisture content at growing stage end as at the beginning of corresponding growing stage becomes
Change amountΔW；
(5) according to the precipitation of corresponding growing stageP, irrigation volumeIWith soil moisture content transformation amountΔWCalculated result utilizes right
It is required that 1 formula (I) calculates each stageET i ；
(6) by each corresponding growing stageET i WithET mi Calculated result substitute into claim 1 described in formula (II), it is each right to calculate
Answer growing stageCWD i ；
(7) by each corresponding growing stage of summer cornCWD i And Sensitivity index to waterλ i Formula (I) described in claim 1 is substituted into, is obtained
Yield of Summer Corn loss late in corresponding breeding time or in the time of infertilityR。
8. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies assessment method according to claim 7, which is characterized in that the summer corn gives birth to rank
SectionnIt is 10 or 11.
9. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies assessment method according to claim 7, which is characterized in that for Henan growing area,
Crop coefficient of the summer corn in each growing stageK ci Value is as follows:
。
10. summer corn arid disaster loss quantifies assessment method according to claim 7, which is characterized in that for Henan growing area,
Summer corn is as follows in the Sensitivity index to water value of each growing stage:
。
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| CN111105320A (en) * | 2019-12-05 | 2020-05-05 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method for predicting crop yield based on waterlogging stress |
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| CN111681122A (en) * | 2020-06-05 | 2020-09-18 | 河南省气象科学研究所 | Construction and application of summer corn drought influence evaluation model based on soil humidity |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111105320A (en) * | 2019-12-05 | 2020-05-05 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method for predicting crop yield based on waterlogging stress |
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| CN111681122A (en) * | 2020-06-05 | 2020-09-18 | 河南省气象科学研究所 | Construction and application of summer corn drought influence evaluation model based on soil humidity |
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| CN112989259A (en) * | 2021-02-05 | 2021-06-18 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Potted plant test crop coefficient determination method and device |
| CN112989259B (en) * | 2021-02-05 | 2023-09-08 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Potted plant test crop coefficient determining method and device |
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