CN110516823B - Vehicle intelligent maintenance model based on time sequence model - Google Patents

Vehicle intelligent maintenance model based on time sequence model Download PDF

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CN110516823B
CN110516823B CN201910784276.6A CN201910784276A CN110516823B CN 110516823 B CN110516823 B CN 110516823B CN 201910784276 A CN201910784276 A CN 201910784276A CN 110516823 B CN110516823 B CN 110516823B
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王志刚
朱瑞
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Ubiai Information Technology Beijing Co ltd
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Abstract

The application relates to a vehicle wisdom maintenance model based on time sequence model, vehicle wisdom maintenance model includes: the first acquisition unit is used for acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day according to a pre-established deep neural network model; a determining unit for determining a remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle using a current day equivalent mileage of the vehicle; and the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by utilizing a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model according to the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle. The technical scheme provided by the invention can accurately inform the vehicle owner of the specific time required to be maintained, so that the user reasonably arranges own time for maintenance.

Description

Vehicle intelligent maintenance model based on time sequence model
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of automobile maintenance, in particular to a vehicle intelligent maintenance model based on a time sequence model.
Background
With the promotion of the market and the improvement of the cognition of users, the internet protocol vehicles can be explosively increased in the next few years, and the user quantity can be kept in a surge state. The rapid development of the automotive industry has led to a rapid growth in vehicle maintenance business.
Most of maintenance schemes in the related art only consider single dimension of the driving mileage, and urge the vehicle owner to return to the factory for maintenance through the vehicle maintenance alarm information report, but only consider that the driving mileage is too single and incomplete, and the real health condition of the vehicle cannot be reflected.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the problem that the vehicle maintenance alarm information in the related technology can not reflect the real health condition of the vehicle at least to a certain extent, the application provides a vehicle intelligent maintenance model based on a time sequence model.
According to a first aspect of embodiments of the present application, there is provided a vehicle intelligent maintenance model based on a time series model, including:
the first acquisition unit is used for acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day according to a pre-established deep neural network model;
a determining unit for determining a remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle using a current day equivalent mileage of the vehicle;
and the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by utilizing a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model according to the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle.
Preferably, the establishing process of the pre-established deep neural network model includes:
and training by taking historical weather data as an input layer training sample of the deep neural network model and taking the weight of the influence of the historical weather on the vehicle as an output layer training sample of the deep neural network model to obtain the pre-established deep neural network model.
Preferably, the first acquiring unit includes:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the weight of the influence of the weather of the day between the last maintenance date of the vehicle and the current day on the vehicle by taking the weather data of the day between the last maintenance date of the vehicle and the current day as the input of the pre-established deep neural network model;
and the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day by using the weight of the influence of the weather of the vehicle on the vehicle from the last maintenance date of the vehicle to the day.
Further, the second obtaining module is configured to determine a current equivalent mileage i of the vehicle according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002177520530000021
in the above formula, i is [1, n ]]N is the date of the day, l' is the actual travel mileage of the vehicle when the date is i, and w i The weight of the influence of weather on the vehicle when the date is i; where i=1 is the date of the last maintenance of the vehicle.
Preferably, the determining unit is configured to determine the remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle according to the following formula:
L=l 1 -(l-l 2 )
in the above, l 1 Is the maintenance cycle mileage of the vehicle, l is the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day, l 2 The mileage of the vehicle is the mileage of the vehicle when the vehicle is last serviced.
Preferably, the establishing process of the pre-established seasonal ARIMA model includes:
before history n 1 The daily mileage of a vehicle of one month is input by a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, and a predicted post-history n is obtained 2 Daily mileage of a vehicle for a month;
modulating the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model using grid search and using the predicted post-historic n 2 Acquiring an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, namely a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model, from the daily mileage of the vehicles of the month;
wherein n=n 1 +n 2 N is the total month number of the history time, p is the regression coefficient, d is the difference coefficient, and q is the moving average coefficient.
Further, the post-historic n using the prediction 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model comprising:
historical n using the prediction 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 Acquiring AIC values of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model by using the mileage number of the vehicle every day of the month;
and selecting the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model corresponding to the minimum AIC value as the optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model.
Specifically, the post-historic n using the prediction 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains the AIC value of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, comprising:
the AIC values of the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model are determined as follows:
Figure BDA0002177520530000031
in the above, k is [1, K ]]K is n after history 2 Total number of days of the month, ssr is the sum of squares of residuals;
wherein the residual square sum ssr is determined as follows:
Figure BDA0002177520530000032
in the above, a k For history of n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of month, a k ' post-history of prediction n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of the month.
Further, the second obtaining unit includes:
the third acquisition module is used for acquiring the driving mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the future by taking the driving mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the history as the input of a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model;
and the determining module is used for determining the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by using the daily driving mileage of the vehicle and the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the future.
Specifically, the determining module is configured to, when the remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle satisfies
Figure BDA0002177520530000041
When the vehicle is in a maintenance state, m is the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle;
wherein j is E [1, m],l j The driving mileage of the vehicle on the m-th day of several days in the future.
The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application can comprise the following beneficial effects:
according to the technical scheme, the current equivalent mileage of the vehicle is obtained according to the pre-established deep neural network model, the current equivalent mileage of the vehicle is utilized to determine the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle, and the pre-established seasonal ARIMA model is utilized to obtain the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle according to the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle, so that the specific time of maintenance required by a vehicle owner can be accurately informed, and a user can reasonably arrange own time for maintenance;
according to the technical scheme, the historical weather data, the historical driving data of the vehicle and the historical maintenance data of the vehicle are utilized, so that the data dimension is enriched, and the obtained remaining maintenance days of the vehicle result is more objective and accurate.
It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the application.
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The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the application and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the application.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a timing model-based vehicle intelligent maintenance model in accordance with an exemplary embodiment;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a vehicle intelligent maintenance method based on a time series model, according to an exemplary embodiment.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to exemplary embodiments, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the accompanying drawings, the same numbers in different drawings refer to the same or similar elements, unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary examples are not representative of all implementations consistent with the present application. Rather, they are merely examples of apparatus and methods consistent with some aspects of the present application as detailed in the accompanying claims.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a timing model-based vehicle smart maintenance model, as shown in FIG. 1, according to an exemplary embodiment, including:
the first acquisition unit is used for acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day according to a pre-established deep neural network model;
a determining unit for determining a remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle using a current day equivalent mileage of the vehicle;
and the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by utilizing a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model according to the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle.
Further, the establishing process of the pre-established deep neural network model includes:
and training by taking historical weather data as an input layer training sample of the deep neural network model and taking the weight of the influence of the historical weather on the vehicle as an output layer training sample of the deep neural network model to obtain the pre-established deep neural network model.
Further, the first acquisition unit includes:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the weight of the influence of the weather of the day between the last maintenance date of the vehicle and the current day on the vehicle by taking the weather data of the day between the last maintenance date of the vehicle and the current day as the input of the pre-established deep neural network model;
and the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day by using the weight of the influence of the weather of the vehicle on the vehicle from the last maintenance date of the vehicle to the day.
For example, the date of the last maintenance of the automobile of the main armor is 1 month 1 day in 2019, and the date of the current day is 1 month 1 day in 2019, taking the weather data of each day between 1 month 1 day in 2019 and 1 month 4 day in 2019 as the input of the pre-established deep neural network model, and acquiring the weight of the influence of the weather of each day between 1 month 1 day in 2019 and 1 month 4 day in 2019 on the automobile; wherein, each day between 1.1.1.2019 and 4.1.1.2019 comprises 1.1.1.2019 and 4.1.1.2019.
Specifically, the second obtaining module is configured to determine a current equivalent mileage i of the vehicle according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002177520530000061
in the above formula, i is [1, n ]]N is the date of the day, l' is the actual travel mileage of the vehicle when the date is i, and w i The weight of the influence of weather on the vehicle when the date is i; where i=1 is the date of the last maintenance of the vehicle.
Further, the determining unit is configured to determine a remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle according to the following formula:
L=l 1 -(l-l 2 )
in the above, l 1 Is the maintenance cycle mileage of the vehicle, l is the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day, l 2 The mileage of the vehicle is the mileage of the vehicle when the vehicle is maintained last time;
for example, the maintenance cycle mileage of the vehicle owner b is 10000 km, the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the day is 31000 km, the mileage of the vehicle at the last maintenance of the vehicle is 25000 km, and the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle=10000- (31000-25000) =4000 km.
Further, the establishing process of the pre-established seasonal ARIMA model includes:
before history n 1 The daily mileage of a vehicle of one month is input by a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, and a predicted post-history n is obtained 2 Daily mileage of a vehicle for a month;
modulating the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model using grid search and using the predicted post-historic n 2 Acquiring an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, namely a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model, from the daily mileage of the vehicles of the month;
wherein n=n 1 +n 2 N is the total month number of the history time, p is the regression coefficient, d is the difference coefficient, and q is the moving average coefficient.
Specifically, the post-historic n using the prediction 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model comprising:
historical n using the prediction 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 Acquiring AIC values of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model by using the mileage number of the vehicle every day of the month;
and selecting the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model corresponding to the minimum AIC value as the optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model.
Specifically, the post-historic n using the prediction 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains the AIC value of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, comprising:
the AIC values of the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model are determined as follows:
Figure BDA0002177520530000071
in the above, k is [1, K ]]K is n after history 2 Total number of days of the month, ssr is the sum of squares of residuals;
wherein the residual square sum ssr is determined as follows:
Figure BDA0002177520530000072
in the above, a k For history of n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of month, a k ' post-history of prediction n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of the month;
for example, taking the car of the car owner of the third party as an example, the date of the current day is 2019, 4, 1, the car owner of the third party buys the car in 2018, 4, 1, and starts to use the car in 2018, 4, 1, the total month number of the history time n=n 1 +n 2 =12, let n 1 =6,n 2 =6, 30 days a month, then n 1 180 days in one month, n 2 180 days in one month, n is the number after history 2 Total number of months k=180, K e [1,180 ]]。
Further, the second obtaining unit includes:
the third acquisition module is used for acquiring the driving mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the future by taking the driving mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the history as the input of a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model;
and the determining module is used for determining the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by using the daily driving mileage of the vehicle and the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the future.
Specifically, the determining module is configured to, when the remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle satisfies
Figure BDA0002177520530000073
When the vehicle is in a maintenance state, m is the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle;
wherein j is E [1, m],l j The driving mileage of the vehicle on the m-th day of several days in the future.
According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, on one hand, the influence of weather data on driving conditions and historical driving mileage are considered, each user area is sufficiently differentiated, and users with excellent dimensions can be given corresponding rewards (for example, maintenance is carried out later than other users); on the other hand, the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle are predicted, so that the user can reasonably arrange own time for maintenance;
the historical driving mileage is considered, that is, the actual road condition, the driving environment, the driving behavior and the like are considered.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a vehicle intelligent maintenance method based on a time series model according to an exemplary embodiment, and as shown in fig. 2, a vehicle intelligent maintenance method based on a time series model is used in a terminal, comprising the steps of:
101. acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day according to a pre-established deep neural network model;
102. determining the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle by using the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day;
103. and according to the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle, acquiring the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by utilizing a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model.
Further, the establishing process of the pre-established deep neural network model includes:
and training by taking historical weather data as an input layer training sample of the deep neural network model and taking the weight of the influence of the historical weather on the vehicle as an output layer training sample of the deep neural network model to obtain the pre-established deep neural network model.
Further, the step 101 includes:
taking the weather data of each day from the last maintenance date of the vehicle to the current day as input of the pre-established deep neural network model, and acquiring the weight of the influence of the weather of each day from the last maintenance date of the vehicle to the current day on the vehicle;
and obtaining the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day by using the weight of the influence of the weather of the vehicle on the vehicle from the last maintenance date of the vehicle to the day.
For example, the date of the last maintenance of the automobile of the main armor is 1 month 1 day in 2019, and the date of the current day is 1 month 1 day in 2019, taking the weather data of each day between 1 month 1 day in 2019 and 1 month 4 day in 2019 as the input of the pre-established deep neural network model, and acquiring the weight of the influence of the weather of each day between 1 month 1 day in 2019 and 1 month 4 day in 2019 on the automobile; wherein, each day between 1.1.1.2019 and 4.1.1.2019 comprises 1.1.1.2019 and 4.1.1.2019.
Specifically, the obtaining the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the day by using the weight of the influence of the weather of the day between the last maintenance date of the vehicle and the current day on the vehicle includes:
the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the day is determined as follows:
Figure BDA0002177520530000091
in the above formula, i is [1, n ]]N is the date of the day, l' is the actual travel mileage of the vehicle when the date is i, and w i For date iThe weight of the weather's impact on the vehicle; where i=1 is the date of the last maintenance of the vehicle.
Further, the step 102 after obtaining the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day includes:
the remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle is determined as follows:
L=l 1 -(l-l 2 )
in the above, l 1 Is the maintenance cycle mileage of the vehicle, l is the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day, l 2 The mileage of the vehicle is the mileage of the vehicle when the vehicle is last serviced.
For example, the maintenance cycle mileage of the vehicle owner b is 10000 km, the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the day is 31000 km, the mileage of the vehicle at the last maintenance of the vehicle is 25000 km, and the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle=10000- (31000-25000) =4000 km.
Further, the establishing process of the pre-established seasonal ARIMA model includes:
before history n 1 The daily mileage of a vehicle of one month is input by a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, and a predicted post-history n is obtained 2 Daily mileage of a vehicle for a month;
modulating the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model using grid search and using the predicted post-historic n 2 Acquiring an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, namely a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model, from the daily mileage of the vehicles of the month;
wherein n=n 1 +n 2 N is the total month number of the history time, p is the regression coefficient, d is the difference coefficient, and q is the moving average coefficient.
Specifically, the post-historic n using the prediction 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model comprising:
historical n using the prediction 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 Daily mileage of vehicle for monthAcquiring AIC values of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model;
and selecting the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model corresponding to the minimum AIC value as the optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model.
Specifically, the post-historic n using the prediction 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains the AIC value of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, comprising:
the AIC values of the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model are determined as follows:
Figure BDA0002177520530000101
in the above, k is [1, K ]]K is n after history 2 Total number of days of the month, ssr is the sum of squares of residuals;
wherein the residual square sum ssr is determined as follows:
Figure BDA0002177520530000102
in the above, a k For history of n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of month, a k ' post-history of prediction n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of the month.
For example, taking the car of the car owner of the third party as an example, the date of the current day is 2019, 4, 1, the car owner of the third party buys the car in 2018, 4, 1, and starts to use the car in 2018, 4, 1, the total month number of the history time n=n 1 +n 2 =12, let n 1 =6,n 2 =6, 30 days a month, then n 1 180 days in one month, n 2 180 days in one month, n is the number after history 2 Total number of months k=180, K e [1,180 ]]。
Further, after determining the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle, the step 103 includes:
taking the driving mileage of the vehicle every day in a plurality of historical days as the input of a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model, and acquiring the driving mileage of the vehicle every day in a plurality of future days;
the remaining days of maintenance for the vehicle is determined using the driving range of the vehicle and the remaining maintenance range of the vehicle for each of several days in the future.
Specifically, the determining the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by using the driving mileage of the vehicle and the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle every day in a plurality of days in the future includes:
when the remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle is satisfied
Figure BDA0002177520530000111
When the vehicle is in a maintenance state, m is the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle;
wherein j is E [1, m],l j The driving mileage of the vehicle on the m-th day of several days in the future.
It is to be understood that the same or similar parts in the above embodiments may be referred to each other, and that in some embodiments, the same or similar parts in other embodiments may be referred to.
It should be noted that in the description of the present application, the terms "first," "second," and the like are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance. Furthermore, in the description of the present application, unless otherwise indicated, the meaning of "plurality" means at least two.
Any process or method descriptions in flow charts or otherwise described herein may be understood as representing modules, segments, or portions of code which include one or more executable instructions for implementing specific logical functions or steps of the process, and further implementations are included within the scope of the preferred embodiment of the present application in which functions may be executed out of order from that shown or discussed, including substantially concurrently or in reverse order, depending on the functionality involved, as would be understood by those reasonably skilled in the art of the embodiments of the present application.
It is to be understood that portions of the present application may be implemented in hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the above-described embodiments, the various steps or methods may be implemented in software or firmware stored in a memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented in hardware, as in another embodiment, may be implemented using any one or combination of the following techniques, as is well known in the art: discrete logic circuits having logic gates for implementing logic functions on data signals, application specific integrated circuits having suitable combinational logic gates, programmable Gate Arrays (PGAs), field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), and the like.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that all or a portion of the steps carried out in the method of the above-described embodiments may be implemented by a program to instruct related hardware, where the program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and where the program, when executed, includes one or a combination of the steps of the method embodiments.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present application may be integrated in one processing module, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units may be integrated in one module. The integrated modules may be implemented in hardware or in software functional modules. The integrated modules may also be stored in a computer readable storage medium if implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as a stand-alone product.
The above-mentioned storage medium may be a read-only memory, a magnetic disk or an optical disk, or the like.
In the description of the present specification, a description referring to terms "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "examples," "specific examples," or "some examples," etc., means that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the present application. In this specification, schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiments or examples. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
Although embodiments of the present application have been shown and described above, it will be understood that the above embodiments are illustrative and not to be construed as limiting the application, and that variations, modifications, alternatives, and variations may be made to the above embodiments by one of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the application.

Claims (7)

1. A vehicle smart maintenance model based on a time series model, the vehicle smart maintenance model comprising:
the first acquisition unit is used for acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day according to a pre-established deep neural network model;
a determining unit for determining a remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle using a current day equivalent mileage of the vehicle;
the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by utilizing a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model according to the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle;
the establishing process of the pre-established seasonal ARIMA model comprises the following steps:
before history n 1 The daily mileage of a vehicle of one month is input by a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, and a predicted post-history n is obtained 2 Daily mileage of a vehicle for a month;
modulating the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model using grid search and using the predicted post-historic n 2 Acquiring an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, namely a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model, from the daily mileage of the vehicles of the month;
wherein n=n 1 +n 2 N is the total month number of the history time, p is a regression coefficient, d is a difference coefficient, and q is a moving average coefficient;
the post-historic n using the prediction 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model comprising:
using the predictionHistory of n 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 Acquiring AIC values of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model by using the mileage number of the vehicle every day of the month;
selecting a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model corresponding to the minimum AIC value as an optimal seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model;
the post-historic n using the prediction 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 The daily mileage of a vehicle for a month obtains the AIC value of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model, comprising:
historical post n using predictions 2 Daily mileage and post-history n of a monthly vehicle 2 Acquiring AIC values of a seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model from daily mileage of a vehicle of a month;
the obtaining of AIC values for the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model includes:
the AIC values of the seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model are determined as follows:
Figure FDA0004225475400000021
in the above, k is [1, K ]]K is n after history 2 Total number of days of the month, ssr is the sum of squares of residuals;
wherein the residual square sum ssr is determined as follows:
Figure FDA0004225475400000022
in the above, a k For history of n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of month, a k ' post-history of prediction n 2 Number of mileage of vehicle on the k-th day of the month.
2. The vehicle smart maintenance model of claim 1, wherein the pre-established deep neural network model creation process includes:
and training by taking historical weather data as an input layer training sample of the deep neural network model and taking the weight of the influence of the historical weather on the vehicle as an output layer training sample of the deep neural network model to obtain the pre-established deep neural network model.
3. The vehicle smart maintenance model of claim 1, wherein the first acquisition unit includes:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the weight of the influence of the weather of the day between the last maintenance date of the vehicle and the current day on the vehicle by taking the weather data of the day between the last maintenance date of the vehicle and the current day as the input of the pre-established deep neural network model;
and the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day by using the weight of the influence of the weather of the vehicle on the vehicle from the last maintenance date of the vehicle to the day.
4. A vehicle smart maintenance model according to claim 3, wherein the second acquisition module is adapted to determine the equivalent mileage of the vehicle/by:
Figure FDA0004225475400000031
in the above formula, i is [1, n ]]N is the date of the day, l' is the actual travel mileage of the vehicle when the date is i, and w i The weight of the influence of weather on the vehicle when the date is i; where i=1 is the date of the last maintenance of the vehicle.
5. The vehicle smart maintenance model according to claim 1, wherein the determining unit is configured to determine a remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle according to the following formula:
L=l 1 -(l-l 2 )
in the above, l 1 Is the maintenance cycle mileage of the vehicle, l is the equivalent mileage of the vehicle on the same day, l 2 The mileage of the vehicle is the mileage of the vehicle when the vehicle is last serviced.
6. The vehicle smart maintenance model of claim 5, wherein the second acquisition unit includes:
the third acquisition module is used for acquiring the driving mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the future by taking the driving mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the history as the input of a pre-established seasonal ARIMA model;
and the determining module is used for determining the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle by using the daily driving mileage of the vehicle and the remaining maintenance mileage of the vehicle in a plurality of days in the future.
7. The vehicle smart maintenance model of claim 6, wherein the determination module is configured to, when a remaining maintenance mileage L of the vehicle satisfies
Figure FDA0004225475400000032
When in use;
wherein j is E [1, m]M is the remaining maintenance days of the vehicle, l j The travel mileage of the vehicle on the j th day of several days in the future.
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