CN110458314A - A kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago - Google Patents
A kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to technical field of power systems, in particular to a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago, is a kind of 110kV substation load data decomposition method for Tidal forecasting a few days ago.Before every end of day, read in the total active prediction data of each 220kV transforming plant main transformer of second day, and it is based on current electric grid model and operating status, on the load that the total burden with power prediction data of 220kV main transformer is decomposed to junior 110kV and the 35kV substation of main transformer institute band, calculate the idle of each load.Decomposition computation result is used for the Tidal forecasting a few days ago of power grid by the present invention, and for power grid, Security Checking, idle pressure optimization a few days ago provide basic data a few days ago, improves grid stability and quality of voltage.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to technical field of power systems, in particular to a kind of load prediction for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago
Data resolving method, specifically a kind of 110kV substation load data decomposition method for Tidal forecasting a few days ago.
Background technique
In Operation of Electric Systems, for the ease of schedule ahead grid operation mode, scheduling mode personnel need to mention daily
The preceding establishment that operation of power networks scheme will be carried out to upcoming tomorrow, that is, work out operational plan a few days ago.Operational plan a few days ago is electricity
The important evidence of scheduling is netted, reasonably management and running plan a few days ago is related to the safe and economic operation in system future.With power grid
The expansion of scale and the method for operation complicate, and the plan security check a few days ago based on DC power flow had been unable to satisfy practical need in the past
Ask, it is desirable that a few days ago plan carry out include static security, dynamic stability and transient stability etc. comprehensive security check, be
This, needs to generate the reasonable AC power flow for meeting and planning a few days ago, and the work completed is needed here it is Tidal forecasting a few days ago.It is a few days ago damp
Stream forecast just refers to basis power plant's Active Generation plan a few days ago, a few days ago maintenance plan and a few days ago bus load prediction data, generates
AC power flow solution a few days ago, since power plants generating electricity plan a few days ago and bus load prediction data are generally the 96 of 15 minutes intervals and count
According to, therefore Tidal forecasting will also generate corresponding 96 AC power flow solutions a few days ago.Traditional method be on the basis of DC power flow with
Experience provides generator terminal voltage, then carries out AC power flow calculating, poor astringency, and result is often unreasonable, influences
The correctness of Security Checking.
Lin Yi, Sun Hongbin " a few days ago in plan security check plan trend Auto " (Automation of Electric Systems,
The 20th phase of volume 36 in October, 2012, pp.68-73) in propose a kind of new Tidal forecasting method in planning a few days ago,
The secondary daily planning trend of power grid can be calculated, the operation of power networks state and safe feelings of next day are assessed by plan trend
Condition.Former PROBLEM DECOMPOSITION is that active power adjustment subproblem and reactive voltage are distributed subproblem substep and solve by the plan trend method.It is logical
Cross solve active power adjustment optimization subproblem coordinate it is inconsistent between a variety of planning datas, by solve reactive voltage be distributed son ask
Topic avoids to determine reasonable generator terminal voltage using typical set end voltage bring convergence problem.Using being based on
Prediction-correction step modern interior point method solves above-mentioned optimization subproblem, has good convergence.This method is at present in state
Interior some large regional grid control centres and provincial power grid dispatching center are applied.
The method provided in document mainly solves the active and idle of generator in Tidal forecasting, in Tidal forecasting
Active reactive value on middle load bus is data that are given, providing from bus load forecast system.In provincial power network tune
In the actual application at degree center, bus load prediction data mainly provides total burden with power prediction data of 220kV main transformer.
As dispatching of power netwoks operational management in recent years is intensive, the change of flattening, saves and adjust in electric network model gradually by 220kV bus institute
Subordinate load 110kV, 35kV electric network model of band also increases into, in Tidal forecasting, in order to provide complete exchange tide
Stream solution, needs to decompose total burden with power forecast data of 220kV main transformer in junior's network load of its band.The present invention
In order to solve this problem the method for proposition is exactly.
It is right in the operation of China's dispatching of power netwoks at present the present invention relates to the operation of power networks region of 220kV-110kV-35kV
330kV, 220kV power grid below, mostly use radiation mode to run, i.e., the junior of the every substation 330kV/220kV band
110kV/35kV substation forms independent region, interknits in region, the area, junior of different 330kV, 220kV institute bands
There is no electrical link between domain.This typical schematic diagram in region is as shown in annex map 3.
The present invention relates to the new sensitivity of operation of power networks, the physical significance of burden with power sensitivity is on certain bus
After increase injection unit is active, the active variation of each main transformer in power grid.Sun Hongbin, Zhang Baiming, Xiang Niande are " quasi-stationary sensitive
Spend analysis method " new sensitivity method is proposed in (Proceedings of the CSEE, in April, 1999 V19N4, pp.9-13),
Different from conventional static Sensitivity Analysis Method, new sensitivity method considers the quasi-stationary physics of electric system and rings
It answers, total variation between the new and old stable state of meter and system control front and back effectively increases the precision of sensitivity analysis.This method is based on electricity
The PQ Decoupled Model of Force system, when generator is equipped with automatic voltage regulator (AVR), it is believed that the generator node is PV
Node；And when generator adjusts (AQR) or automatic power factor adjusting (APFR) equipped with automatic reactive power, it is believed that the hair
Motor node identical as common load bus is PQ node.In addition, considering static load characteristics at the one of node voltage
Secondary or conic section.The tide model established so just naturally takes in these quasi-stationary physical responses, thus
It is quasi-stationary sensitivity based on the calculated sensitivity of tide model.Above-mentioned new sensitivity is all made of in calculating herein
Method.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome shortcoming existing for above-mentioned prior art, the present invention proposes that one kind is used for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago
Load prediction data decomposition method.The present invention uses total active prediction data of 220kV transforming plant main transformer in provincial power network,
Based on grid operation mode and topological structure, calculating is decomposited in junior 110kV and the 35kV substation that each main transformer is connected and is born
The active prediction data of lotus, and calculate corresponding idle prediction data.The result of decomposition computation is used for the trend a few days ago of power grid
Forecast, and then power grid Security Checking, a few days ago idle pressure optimization offer basic data a few days ago are provided, improve grid stability and electricity
Press the goal of the invention of quality.
In order to achieve the above-mentioned object of the invention, the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago reads in second before every end of day
Day the total active prediction data of each 220kV transforming plant main transformer, and current electric grid model and operating status are based on, by 220kV main transformer
On the load for junior 110kV and the 35kV substation that total burden with power prediction data decomposes main transformer institute band, and further calculate
Each load it is idle；From the point of view of 110kV substation, comprising the following steps:
T at the time of step 1. presets daily progress decomposition computation, when T is usually daily 22；
Step 2. T at the time of being calculated daily comes temporarily, reads in current electric grid mould from energy management system EMS
Type and calculation of tidal current form the region Z of junior's power grid of 220kV substation x institute bandx, x is 220kV substation in power grid
Number, initial value 1；
Step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx；
Step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV's and 35kV
The active prediction data of load；
Step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV's and 35kV
Idle prediction data；
Step 6.x value is incremented by 1, and return step 2 continues to calculate the region of the next substation 220kV band, until all
220kV substation calculates completion.
The ZxThe step of generation, is as follows:
Step 2.1 automatically generates junior's Grid of x institute, 220kV substation band according to topological structure of electric, generation
Regional model are as follows:
Wherein,For the 220kV main transformer in the substation, n platform is amounted to；For substation's band
Load in the station junior power grid 110kV, amounts to m；To be the substation with negative in the station junior power grid 35kV
Lotus amounts to k；
Step 2.2 read-in area ZxIn, each object at power grid peak load moment on the same day is corresponding active and reactive are as follows:
Wherein,For the active and reactive value in 220kV main transformer high-pressure side in region；For junior's power grid
The active and reactive value of load in the station 110kV；For the active and reactive value of load in the station junior power grid 35kV；I is
Several equipment.
The step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx, comprise the following steps that
Step 3.1 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active po wer sensitivity matrix of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding
Sx, it is as follows:
Wherein,For the sensitivity matrix that 110kV load in region is active to main transformer
(m*n),It is that i-th of 110kV load is active to the quasi-steady state spirit that j-th of main transformer high-pressure side winding in region is active in region
Sensitivity, physical significance are after i-th of 110kV load increase unit is active, and j-th of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding is active
Variable quantity；I is that load is less than or equal to m, becomes based on j and is less than or equal to n；
Similarly,For the sensitivity matrix (k* that 35kV load in region is active to main transformer
N dimension)；Matrix SxTotal dimension are as follows: (m+k) * n；
Step 3.2 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active extraction factor square of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding
Battle array Ax,
Wherein,For 110kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (m*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 110kV load is active；For submatrixElement；
Similarly,For 35kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (k*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 35kV load is active；For submatrixElement.
The step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV and
The active prediction data of the load of 35kV, comprises the following steps that
Step 4.1 reads in the region Z at t-th of moment of second day from energy management system EMSxIn each 220kV master
The active prediction data become, is denoted as:
Wherein, t is the markers of prediction data, and value range is 1~T, i.e. the second day prediction number that adds up to T moment
According to ordinary circumstance T=96, t initial value is 1；For the prediction data of t moment；
The active prediction data of load of 110kV and 35kV inside step 4.2 zoningIt is as follows:
WhereinFor be calculated second day t-th when
Carve region ZxThe active prediction data of middle 110kV and 35kV load；
Step 4.3t value is incremented by 1, and return step 3.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until second day all moment is active
Prediction data calculates completion.
The step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV and
The idle prediction data of 35kV, comprises the following steps that
Step 5.1 is calculated to second day t moment, using constant power factoring method with reference to the power factor of current time load
110kV and 35kV reactive load prediction data in regionIt is denoted as:
Wherein:
In formula (10)For power grid same day peak load moment for being provided in formula (2)
The active and reactive value of load；The i of formula 10 corresponds respectively to m, k of formula 9；
Step 5.2t value is incremented by 1, and return step 4.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until second day all moment is idle
Prediction data calculates completion.
The total active prediction data of each 220kV transforming plant main transformer for reading in second day, and based on current electric grid model and
The total burden with power prediction data of 220kV main transformer is decomposed junior 110kV and the 35kV substation of main transformer institute band by operating status
On load, and further calculate the idle of each load；With 220kV stand in main transformer calculated, include two in the subregion
220kV main transformer Tr1, Tr2, load Ld1, Ld2, Ld3, Ld4, Ld5, Ld6, Ld7, Ld8, Ld9；The following steps are included:
T at the time of step 1. presets daily progress decomposition computation, when T is usually daily 22；
Step 2. T at the time of being calculated daily comes temporarily, reads in current electric grid mould from energy management system EMS
Type and calculation of tidal current form the region Z of junior's power grid of 220kV substation x institute bandx, x is 220kV substation in power grid
Number, initial value 1；
Step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx；
Step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV's and 35kV
The active prediction data of load；
Step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV's and 35kV
Idle prediction data；
Step 6.x value is incremented by 1, and return step 2 continues to calculate the region of the next substation 220kV band, until all
220kV substation calculates completion.
The generation ZxThe step of it is as follows:
Step 2.1 automatically generates junior's Grid of x institute, 220kV substation band according to topological structure of electric, generation
Regional model are as follows:
Wherein,For the 220kV main transformer in the substation, n platform is amounted to；For substation's band
Load in the station junior power grid 110kV, amounts to m；To be the substation with negative in the station junior power grid 35kV
Lotus amounts to k；
According to can be calculated: Z1={ Tr1, Ld1, Ld2, Ld3, Ld4, Ld5, Ld6 }
Z2={ Tr2, Ld7, Ld8, Ld9 }
Step 2.2 read-in area ZxIn, it is each object at power grid peak load moment on the same day corresponding active Px, max, idle
Qx, max are as follows:
Wherein,For the active and reactive value in 220kV main transformer high-pressure side in region；For junior's power grid
The active and reactive value of load in the station 110kV；For the active and reactive value of load in the station junior power grid 35kV；I is to work as
Preload；
It is read according to the model calculating actually calculated:
The step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx, steps are as follows:
Step 3.1 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active po wer sensitivity matrix of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding
Sx, it is as follows:
Wherein,For the sensitivity matrix that 110kV load in region is active to main transformer
(m*n),It is that i-th of 110kV load is active to the quasi-steady state spirit that j-th of main transformer high-pressure side winding in region is active in region
Sensitivity, physical significance are after i-th of 110kV load increase unit is active, and j-th of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding is active
Variable quantity；I is that load is less than or equal to m, becomes based on j and is less than or equal to n；
Similarly,For the sensitivity matrix (k*n that 35kV load in region is active to main transformer
Dimension)；Matrix SxTotal dimension are as follows: (m+k) * n；
The sensitivity being calculated are as follows:
Step 3.2 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active extraction factor square of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding
Battle array Ax,
Wherein,For 110kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (m*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 110kV load is active；For submatrixElement；
Similarly,For 35kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (k*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 35kV load is active；For submatrixElement；
The active extraction factor being calculated are as follows:
The step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV and
The active prediction data of the load of 35kV, comprises the following steps that
Step 4.1 reads in the region Z at t-th of moment of second day from energy management system EMSxIn each 220kV master
The active prediction data become, is denoted as:
Wherein, t is the markers of prediction data, and value range is 1~T, i.e. the second day prediction number that adds up to T moment
According to ordinary circumstance T=96, t initial value is 1；
The active prediction data of load of 110kV and 35kV inside step 4.2 zoningIt is as follows:
WhereinFor the second day being calculated
T moment region ZxThe active prediction data of middle 110kV and 35kV load；
4.3t value is incremented by 1, and return step 3.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the active prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion；
Calculate 2 the data obtained of 1 the data obtained of region and region.
The step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV and
The idle prediction data of 35kV, comprises the following steps that
Step 5.1 is calculated to second day t moment, using constant power factoring method with reference to the power factor of current time load
110kV and 35kV reactive load prediction data in regionIt is denoted as:
Wherein:
In formula (10)Load for the power grid same day peak load moment provided in formula (2)
Active and reactive value；
Idle numerical value can equally be calculated to obtain；
Step 5.2t value is incremented by 1, and return step 4.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until second day all moment is idle
Prediction data calculates completion.
The features of the present invention and beneficial effect are:
In provincial power network Energy Management System, power prediction module generally only provides the total active pre- of 220kV main transformer
Measured data cannot be used directly for the whole network Tidal forecasting comprising juniors' electric network models such as 110kV, 35kV and calculate.The present invention is saving
Total active prediction data that 220kV transforming plant main transformer is used in grade power grid, is based on grid operation mode and topological structure, calculates and divides
The active prediction data of load in junior 110kV and the 35kV substation that each main transformer is connected is solved, and calculates corresponding nothing
Function prediction data.The result of decomposition computation be used for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago, and then for power grid a few days ago Security Checking, a few days ago without
Function pressure optimization provides basic data, improves grid stability and quality of voltage.
Detailed description of the invention
Understand for the ease of those of ordinary skill in the art and implement the present invention, with reference to the accompanying drawing and specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail, and the following examples are intended to illustrate the invention, it is to be understood that protection model of the invention
It encloses and is not limited by the specific implementation.
Fig. 1 is method flow block diagram of the invention.
Fig. 2 is substation of embodiment of the present invention connection relationship diagram.
Fig. 3 is existing region electrical link figure.
Specific embodiment
The present invention proposes a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago, as shown in Figure 1, figure
1 is method flow block diagram of the invention.Before every end of day, each 220kV transforming plant main transformer for reading in second day always has this method
Function prediction data, and it is based on current electric grid model and operating status, the total burden with power prediction data of 220kV main transformer is decomposed into master
Become on the load of junior 110kV and the 35kV substation of institute's band, and further calculates the idle of each load.With 110kV substation
For, method includes the following steps:
T at the time of step 1. presets daily progress decomposition computation, when T is usually daily 22；
Step 2. T at the time of being calculated daily comes temporarily, reads in current electric grid mould from energy management system EMS
Type and calculation of tidal current form the region Z of junior's power grid of 220kV substation x institute bandx, x is 220kV substation in power grid
Number, initial value 1.Generate ZxThe step of it is as follows:
2.1 automatically generate junior's Grid of x institute, 220kV substation band, the region of generation according to topological structure of electric
Model are as follows:
Wherein,For the 220kV main transformer in the substation, n platform is amounted to；For substation's band
Load in the station junior power grid 110kV, amounts to m；To be the substation with negative in the station junior power grid 35kV
Lotus amounts to k.
2.2 read-in area ZxIn, each object at power grid peak load moment on the same day is corresponding active and reactive are as follows:
Wherein,For the active and reactive value in 220kV main transformer high-pressure side in region；For junior's power grid
The active and reactive value of load in the station 110kV；For the active and reactive value of load in the station junior power grid 35kV；I is
Several equipment.
Step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx, steps are as follows:
3.1 couples of region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active po wer sensitivity matrix S of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx, such as
Under:
Wherein,For the sensitivity matrix that 110kV load in region is active to main transformer
(m*n),It is that i-th of 110kV load is active to the quasi-steady state spirit that j-th of main transformer high-pressure side winding in region is active in region
Sensitivity, physical significance are after i-th of 110kV load increase unit is active, and j-th of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding is active
Variable quantity；I is that load is less than or equal to m, becomes based on j and is less than or equal to n.
Similarly,For the sensitivity matrix (k* that 35kV load in region is active to main transformer
N dimension).Matrix SxTotal dimension are as follows: (m+k) * n.
3.2 couples of region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active extraction factor matrix A of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx,
Wherein,For 110kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (m*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 110kV load is active；For submatrixElement.
Similarly,For 35kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (k*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 35kV load is active；For submatrixElement.
Step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV's and 35kV
The active prediction data of load, steps are as follows:
4.1 read in the region Z at t-th of moment of second day from energy management system EMSxIn each 220kV main transformer
Active prediction data, is denoted as:
Wherein, t is the markers of prediction data, and value range is 1~T, i.e. the second day prediction number that adds up to T moment
According to ordinary circumstance T=96, t initial value is 1；For the prediction data of t moment.
The active prediction data of load of 110kV and 35kV inside 4.2 zoningsIt is as follows:
WhereinFor be calculated second day t-th when
Carve region ZxThe active prediction data of middle 110kV and 35kV load.
4.3t value is incremented by 1, and return step 3.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the active prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion.
Step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV's and 35kV
Idle prediction data, steps are as follows:
5.1 pairs of second day t moments, using constant power factoring method, with reference to the power factor of current time load, zoning
In 110kV and 35kV reactive load prediction dataIt is denoted as:
Wherein:
In formula (10)For power grid same day peak load moment for being provided in formula (2)
The active and reactive value of load.The i of formula 10 corresponds respectively to m, k of formula 9.
5.2t value is incremented by 1, and return step 4.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the idle prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion.
Step 6.x value is incremented by 1, and return step 2 continues to calculate the region of the next substation 220kV band, until all
220kV substation calculates completion.
The working principle of the method for the present invention is:
By carrying out new sensitivity calculating to existing province's tune regional model, main transformer in the current station 220kV is obtained
With the sensitivity between the load of the station 110kV, 35kV, the burden with power prediction data at the station 220kV is read, is gone out by Calculation of Sensitivity
The load prediction data at the station 110kV, 35kV carries out Tidal forecasting meter by decomposing obtained load data in Tidal forecasting
It calculates.
Embodiment 2.
The present embodiment is to calculate the main transformer in a station 220kV, the present embodiment station station connection relationship such as Fig. 2 institute
Show, 2 220kV main transformer Tr1, Tr2, load Ld1, Ld2, Ld3, Ld4, Ld5, Ld6, Ld7, Ld8, Ld9 are included in the subregion；
The present invention proposes a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago, including following step
It is rapid:
T at the time of step 1. presets daily progress decomposition computation, when T is usually daily 22；
Step 2. T at the time of being calculated daily comes temporarily, reads in current electric grid mould from energy management system EMS
Type and calculation of tidal current form the region Z of junior's power grid of 220kV substation x institute bandx, x is 220kV substation in power grid
Number, initial value 1.Generate ZxThe step of it is as follows:
2.1 automatically generate junior's Grid of x institute, 220kV substation band, the region of generation according to topological structure of electric
Model are as follows:
Wherein,For the 220kV main transformer in the substation, n platform is amounted to；For substation's band
Load in the station junior power grid 110kV, amounts to m；To be the substation with negative in the station junior power grid 35kV
Lotus amounts to k.
According to can be calculated: Z1={ Tr1, Ld1, Ld2, Ld3, Ld4, Ld5, Ld6 }
Z2={ Tr2, Ld7, Ld8, Ld9 }
2.2 read-in area ZxIn, each object at power grid peak load moment on the same day corresponding active Px, max, idle Qx,
Max are as follows:
Wherein,For the active and reactive value in 220kV main transformer high-pressure side in region；For junior's power grid
The active and reactive value of load in the station 110kV；For the active and reactive value of load in the station junior power grid 35kV；I is to work as
Preload；
It is read according to the model calculating actually calculated:
Step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx, steps are as follows:
3.1 couples of region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active po wer sensitivity matrix S of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx, such as
Under:
Wherein,For the sensitivity matrix that 110kV load in region is active to main transformer
(m*n),It is that i-th of 110kV load is active to the quasi-steady state spirit that j-th of main transformer high-pressure side winding in region is active in region
Sensitivity, physical significance are after i-th of 110kV load increase unit is active, and j-th of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding is active
Variable quantity.I is that load is less than or equal to m, becomes based on j and is less than or equal to n.
Similarly,For the sensitivity matrix (k*n that 35kV load in region is active to main transformer
Dimension).Matrix SxTotal dimension are as follows: (m+k) * n.
The sensitivity being calculated are as follows:
3.2 couples of region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active extraction factor matrix A of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx,
Wherein,For 110kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (m*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 110kV load is active；For submatrixElement.
Similarly,For 35kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (k*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn
I 35kV load is active；For submatrixElement.
The active extraction factor being calculated are as follows:
Step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV's and 35kV
The active prediction data of load, steps are as follows:
4.1 read in the region Z at t-th of moment of second day from energy management system EMSxIn each 220kV main transformer
Active prediction data, is denoted as:
Wherein, t is the markers of prediction data, and value range is 1~T, i.e. the second day prediction number that adds up to T moment
According to ordinary circumstance T=96, t initial value is 1；
The active prediction data of load of 110kV and 35kV inside 4.2 zoningsIt is as follows:
WhereinFor the second day being calculated
T moment region ZxThe active prediction data of middle 110kV and 35kV load.
4.3t value is incremented by 1, and return step 3.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the active prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion.
Computed information is as follows: region 1
Region 2:
Step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV's and 35kV
Idle prediction data, steps are as follows:
5.1 pairs of second day t moments, using constant power factoring method, with reference to the power factor of current time load, zoning
In 110kV and 35kV reactive load prediction dataIt is denoted as:
Wherein:
In formula (10)Load for the power grid same day peak load moment provided in formula (2)
Active and reactive value.
Idle numerical value can equally be calculated to obtain；
5.2 t values are incremented by 1, and return step 4.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the idle prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion.
Step 6.x value is incremented by 1, and return step 2 continues to calculate the region of the next substation 220kV band, until all
220kV substation calculates completion.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago, it is characterized in that: being read before every end of day
Enter each 220kV transforming plant main transformer of second day always active prediction data, and is based on current electric grid model and operating status, it will
The total burden with power prediction data of 220kV main transformer decomposes on the load of junior 110kV and the 35kV substation of main transformer institute band, goes forward side by side
One step calculates the idle of each load；From the point of view of 110kV substation, comprising the following steps:
T at the time of step 1. presets daily progress decomposition computation, when T is usually daily 22；
Step 2. T at the time of being calculated daily come it is interim, from energy management system EMS read in current electric grid model and
Calculation of tidal current forms the region Z of junior's power grid of 220kV substation x institute bandx, x is the volume of 220kV substation in power grid
Number, initial value 1；
Step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx；
Step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, the load for calculating its internal 110kV and 35kV has
Function prediction data；
Step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate the idle pre- of 110kV and 35kV
Measured data；
Step 6.x value is incremented by 1, and return step 2 continues to calculate the region of the next substation 220kV band, until whole 220kV
Substation calculates completion.
2. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 1, special
Sign is: the ZxThe step of generation, is as follows:
Step 2.1 automatically generates junior's Grid of x institute, 220kV substation band, the region of generation according to topological structure of electric
Model are as follows:
Wherein,For the 220kV main transformer in the substation, n platform is amounted to；For band junior, the substation
Load in the station power grid 110kV, amounts to m；To be the substation with the load in the station junior power grid 35kV, always
Count k；
Step 2.2 read-in area ZxIn, each object at power grid peak load moment on the same day is corresponding active and reactive are as follows:
Wherein,For the active and reactive value in 220kV main transformer high-pressure side in region；For junior power grid 110kV
The active and reactive value of load in standing；For the active and reactive value of load in the station junior power grid 35kV；I is which sets
It is standby.
3. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 1, special
Sign is: the step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx, comprise the following steps that
Step 3.1 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active po wer sensitivity matrix S of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx, such as
Under:
Wherein,For the sensitivity matrix (m* that 110kV load in region is active to main transformer
N),It is that i-th of 110kV load is active sensitive to j-th of the active quasi-steady state of main transformer high-pressure side winding in region in region
Degree, physical significance are the active changes of j-th of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding after i-th of 110kV load increase unit is active
Change amount；I is that load is less than or equal to m, becomes based on j and is less than or equal to n；
Similarly,For the sensitivity matrix (k*n that 35kV load in region is active to main transformer
Dimension)；Matrix SxTotal dimension are as follows: (m+k) * n；
Step 3.2 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active extraction factor matrix A of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx,
Wherein,For 110kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (m*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn i-th
110kV load is active；For submatrixElement；
Similarly,For 35kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (k*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn i-th
35kV load is active；For submatrixElement.
4. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 1, special
Sign is: the step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV's and 35kV
The active prediction data of load, comprises the following steps that
Step 4.1 reads in the region Z at t-th of moment of second day from energy management system EMSxIn each 220kV main transformer have
Function prediction data, is denoted as:
Wherein, t is the markers of prediction data, and value range is 1~T, i.e. the second day prediction data that adds up to T moment, one
As situation T=96, t initial value be 1；For the prediction data of t moment；
The active prediction data of load of 110kV and 35kV inside step 4.2 zoningIt is as follows:
WhereinFor t-th of the moment region Z of second day being calculatedxIn
The active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV load；
Step 4.3t value is incremented by 1, and return step 3.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the active prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion.
5. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 1, special
Sign is: the step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV's and 35kV
Idle prediction data, comprises the following steps that
Step 5.1 is to second day t moment, using constant power factoring method, with reference to the power factor of current time load, zoning
In 110kV and 35kV reactive load prediction dataIt is denoted as:
Wherein:
In formula (10)Load for the power grid same day peak load moment provided in formula (2)
Active and reactive value；The i of formula 10 corresponds respectively to m, k of formula 9；
Step 5.2t value is incremented by 1, and return step 4.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the idle prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion.
6. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 1, special
Sign is: the total active prediction data of each 220kV transforming plant main transformer for reading in second day, and is based on current electric grid model and operation
The total burden with power prediction data of 220kV main transformer is decomposed the load of junior 110kV and the 35kV substation of main transformer institute band by state
On, and further calculate the idle of each load；With 220kV stand in main transformer calculated, include two 220kV masters in the subregion
Become Tr1, Tr2, load Ld1, Ld2, Ld3, Ld4, Ld5, Ld6, Ld7, Ld8, Ld9；The following steps are included:
T at the time of step 1. presets daily progress decomposition computation, when T is usually daily 22；
Step 2. T at the time of being calculated daily come it is interim, from energy management system EMS read in current electric grid model and
Calculation of tidal current forms the region Z of junior's power grid of 220kV substation x institute bandx, x is the volume of 220kV substation in power grid
Number, initial value 1；
Step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx；
Step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, the load for calculating its internal 110kV and 35kV has
Function prediction data；
Step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate the idle pre- of 110kV and 35kV
Measured data；
Step 6.x value is incremented by 1, and return step 2 continues to calculate the region of the next substation 220kV band, until whole 220kV
Substation calculates completion.
7. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 6, special
Sign is: the generation ZxThe step of it is as follows:
Step 2.1 automatically generates junior's Grid of x institute, 220kV substation band, the region of generation according to topological structure of electric
Model are as follows:
Wherein,For the 220kV main transformer in the substation, n platform is amounted to；For band junior, the substation
Load in the station power grid 110kV, amounts to m；To be the substation with the load in the station junior power grid 35kV, always
Count k；
According to can be calculated: Z1={ Tr1, Ld1, Ld2, Ld3, Ld4, Ld5, Ld6 }
Z2={ Tr2, Ld7, Ld8, Ld9 }
Step 2.2 read-in area ZxIn, each object at power grid peak load moment on the same day corresponding active Px, max, idle Qx,
Max are as follows:
Wherein,For the active and reactive value in 220kV main transformer high-pressure side in region；For junior power grid 110kV
The active and reactive value of load in standing；For the active and reactive value of load in the station junior power grid 35kV；I is current negative
Lotus；
It is read according to the model calculating actually calculated:
8. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 6, special
Sign is: the step 3. is to region Zx, calculate its internal active extraction factor matrix A of loadx, steps are as follows:
Step 3.1 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active po wer sensitivity matrix S of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx, such as
Under:
Wherein,For the sensitivity matrix (m*n) that 110kV load in region is active to main transformer,It is the active new sensitivity active to j-th of main transformer high-pressure side winding in region of i-th of 110kV load in region,
Its physical significance is the active variation of j-th of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side winding after i-th of 110kV load increase unit is active
Amount；I is that load is less than or equal to m, becomes based on j and is less than or equal to n；
Similarly,For the sensitivity matrix active to main transformer of 35kV load in region (k*n dimension)；
Matrix SxTotal dimension are as follows: (m+k) * n；
The sensitivity being calculated are as follows:
Step 3.2 is to region Zx, its region internal loading is calculated to the active extraction factor matrix A of 220kV main transformer high-pressure side windingx,
Wherein,For 110kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (m*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn i-th
110kV load is active；For submatrixElement；
Similarly,For 35kV load in region it is active to main transformer draw matrix (k*n dimension), element are as follows:
WhereinFor in formula (2), region ZxMiddle jth platform main transformer high-pressure side is active；For in formula (2), region ZxIn i-th
35kV load is active；For submatrixElement；
Active extraction factor is calculated are as follows:
9. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 6, special
Sign is: the step 4. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of its 220kV main transformer, calculate its internal 110kV's and 35kV
The active prediction data of load, comprises the following steps that
Step 4.1 reads in the region Z at t-th of moment of second day from energy management system EMSxIn each 220kV main transformer have
Function prediction data, is denoted as:
Wherein, t is the markers of prediction data, and value range is 1~T, i.e. the second day prediction data that adds up to T moment, one
As situation T=96, t initial value be 1；
The active prediction data of load of 110kV and 35kV inside step 4.2 zoningIt is as follows:
WhereinFor be calculated second day t-th when
Carve region ZxThe active prediction data of middle 110kV and 35kV load；
4.3t value is incremented by 1, and return step 3.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the active prediction data at second day all moment
It calculates and completes；
Calculate 2 the data obtained of 1 the data obtained of region and region.
10. a kind of load prediction data decomposition method for power grid Tidal forecasting a few days ago according to claim 6, special
Sign is: the step 5. is to region Zx, according to the active prediction data of the load of its 110kV and 35kV, calculate 110kV's and 35kV
Idle prediction data, comprises the following steps that
Step 5.1 is to second day t moment, using constant power factoring method, with reference to the power factor of current time load, zoning
In 110kV and 35kV reactive load prediction dataIt is denoted as:
Wherein:
In formula (10)The load at the power grid same day peak load moment to provide in formula (2) is active,
Without work value；
Idle numerical value can equally be calculated to obtain；
Step 5.2t value is incremented by 1, and return step 4.1 continues to calculate subsequent time, until the idle prediction at second day all moment
Data calculate completion.
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