CN110456199B - Residual life prediction method of multi-sensor system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of electromechanical equipment health management, and discloses a residual life prediction method of a multi-sensor system, which comprises the following specific implementation steps of: s1 calculating improved second order permutation entropy of the sensor data; s2: calculating and comparing improved second-order permutation entropy values of the sensor data according to the calculation method of S1; s3: an improved second order permutation entropy value is selected and the data of the sensor is used for data fusion. The method for predicting the residual life of the multi-sensor system provides an improved monotonicity trend of second-order permutation entropy index measurement data, and fuses data of a plurality of sensors through a data fusion method to construct a health index with a good degradation trend and a smaller threshold variance to represent the health state of equipment, and then estimates and predicts the health state of the equipment by taking the data of the health index as an observed value of odorless particle filtering, so that the residual life of the multi-sensor system is predicted finally.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of electromechanical equipment health management, in particular to a residual life prediction method of a multi-sensor system.
Background
With the rapid development of modern technology and the continuous improvement of functional requirements, the complexity, comprehensiveness and intelligence of a large number of electromechanical devices are continuously improved, so that the electromechanical devices become a large-scale complex multi-sensing system, and at the same time, the reliability and safe operation of these devices are becoming more and more important, however, the complex operating conditions and the harsh operating environment, which lead to the inevitable performance degradation of the electromechanical devices during operation, when the performance of the electromechanical device degrades such that the device is insufficient to perform its function, it can result in equipment downtime or even failure, and huge economic loss and even casualties are brought, as a key technology of prediction and health management, the residual life prediction can effectively predict the potential degradation trend of the system and estimate the failure time of the electromechanical equipment, and has important significance and practical value for ensuring the safe service and reliable operation of the electromechanical equipment.
At present, most scholars research on the prediction of the residual life of the electromechanical equipment and adopt different methods and technologies to predict the residual life of the electromechanical equipment, and some scholars integrate the advantages of particle filters and bond diagram modeling to realize RUL prediction and obtain higher precision and accurate confidence limits; some scholars establish an improved autoregressive model and predict RUL by using a particle filtering method, so that the prediction accuracy is improved, but the methods only use data of one sensor in electromechanical equipment to predict the residual life, so that the performance degradation mechanism of the electromechanical equipment is clear, and single sensor data can describe the degradation process of the electromechanical equipment, so that the methods are effective.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for predicting the residual service life of a multi-sensor system, which has the advantage of accurately predicting the residual service life of electromechanical equipment and solves the problems in the background technology.
The invention provides the following technical scheme: a method for predicting the residual life of a multi-sensor system comprises the following specific implementation steps:
s1 calculating improved second order permutation entropy of the sensor data;
s2: calculating and comparing improved second-order permutation entropy values of the sensor data according to the calculation method of S1;
s3: selecting an improved second-order permutation entropy value, using data of the sensor for data fusion, and constructing a health index capable of representing the health state of the multi-sensor system;
s4: and the health index is used as an observed value of a particle filtering method, so that the health state of the multi-sensor system is predicted.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: the calculating of the improved second order permutation entropy of the sensor data comprises the steps of:
s1.1: the ith sensor data xiMapping to a 2-dimensional phase space for reconstruction, and obtaining a phase space matrix as shown in the following:
a is a reconstructed phase space matrix, B is a submatrix in A, and n is the length of sensor data;
s1.2: for each state vector of the above reconstructed phase space matrix, a symbol sequence is obtained:
S(l)=[m1,m2],l=1,2,…,n*(n-1)/2
where l is the state vector index, [ m ]1,m2]There are two possibilities pi for permutation according to the magnitude of the state vector values1=[0,1]And pi2=[1,0]When two numerical values in the state vector are equal, take [0, 1%]Comparing the magnitude of the numerical value in each state vector to obtain the arrangement relation of each state vector;
s1.3: calculating the corresponding permutation pi of all state vectors1,π2The probability of (d);
s1.4: a second order rank entropy value of the sensor data improvement is calculated.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: calculating the corresponding arrangement pi of all state vectors1,π2The calculation formula used for the probability is as follows:
wherein # represents the number.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: the calculation formula for calculating the improved second order entropy value of the sensor data is as follows:
S2=abs(p(π1)log2[p(π1)]-p(π2)log2[p(π2)])
where abs () is the absolute value.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: the method for constructing the health index capable of representing the health state of the multi-sensor system specifically comprises the following steps:
s3.1: constructing a health index at the time t;
s3.2: solving the dual-target optimization problem through a genetic algorithm to obtain an optimal weight vector omega*And calculating the integral monotonous trend and the fault threshold variance of the health index.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: the construction formula for constructing the health index at the time t is as follows:
Ht=x·,tω t=0,1,2,…,ni
where ω is a weight vector, x·,t∈R1×SIs a matrix of measurements collected from the S sensors;
the calculation formula for calculating the overall monotonous trend of the health index is as follows:
s.t.ω′1S=1
wherein S2ω(d) Is an improved second order permutation entropy value of the health index determined by the weight vector omega,is the fault threshold variance of the health index determined by the weight vector ω,1S∈RS×1Is a vector with all values of 1;
the fault threshold variance calculation formula is as follows:
wherein Y ∈ RM×SIs a matrix of fault values, M being a training unitThe number of the cells.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: the particle filtering method specifically comprises the following steps:
s4.1: constructing a state space model of the multi-sensing system:
θk=f(θk-1,υk)
Hk=h(θk,νk)
wherein θ is a state vector, f is a nonlinear function, upsilon is a process variance, H is a health index, H is a nonlinear observation function, and v is a measurement variance;
s4.2: generating an important density function of the particle filter by using unscented Kalman filtering;
s4.21: setting k to 0, extracting N from the prior distributionsParticles and determining the weight to be 1/NsThen, initializing parameters:
augmented initialization state vector and covariance matrix:
s4.22: gaussian point and weight calculation:
s4.23: and (3) time updating:
s4.24: and (3) updating the measurement value:
s4.3: calculating the sampling particle and updating the particle weight:
s4.4: if the number of significant particles is below a given threshold, resampling is performed:
s4.5: and (3) state estimation:
if k is greater than T, ending the prediction;
whereinFor selected particles, alpha and beta are parameters of the tasteless transform, Wi (m)And Wi (c)The weight coefficients, θ, of the first-order statistical characteristic and the second-order statistical characteristic, respectivelyk|k-1、Pk|k-1And Hk|k-1One-step prediction of the state quantity, variance and measured value, respectively, KkIn order to filter the gain of the filter,andrespectively the final mean value and the variance of the tasteless Kalman filtering;
s4.6: predicting the health state of the system by using a prediction model obtained by a tasteless particle filtering algorithm;
s4.7: determining the remaining life of the multi-sensing system by predicting the health state:
where TH is the fault threshold of the system, TRULIs the remaining life of the system and T is the current time.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: when k ≦ T, let k ═ k +1, then calculate by:
s4.22: gaussian point and weight calculation:
s4.23: and (3) time updating:
s4.24: and (3) updating the measurement value:
s4.3: calculating the sampling particle and updating the particle weight:
s4.4: if the number of significant particles is below a given threshold, resampling is performed:
s4.5: and (3) state estimation:
if k > T, then the prediction is ended
WhereinFor selected particles, alpha and beta are parameters of the tasteless transform, Wi (m)And Wi (c)The weight coefficients, θ, of the first-order statistical characteristic and the second-order statistical characteristic, respectivelyk|k-1、Pk|k-1And Hk|k-1One-step prediction of the state quantity, variance and measured value, respectively, KkIn order to filter the gain of the filter,andrespectively the final mean value and the variance of the tasteless Kalman filtering;
s4.6: predicting the health state of the system by using a prediction model obtained by a tasteless particle filtering algorithm;
s4.7: determining the remaining life of the multi-sensing system by predicting the health state:
where TH is the fault threshold of the system, TRULIs the remaining life of the system and T is the current time.
As a preferable aspect of the method for predicting remaining life of a multi-sensor system of the present invention, wherein: firstly, calculating the mean value and covariance of each particle by using the unscented Kalman filter in a sampling stage; and secondly using the mean and covariance to guide sampling.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method for predicting the residual life of the multi-sensor system provides an improved monotonicity trend of second-order permutation entropy index measurement data, and fuses data of a plurality of sensors through a data fusion method to construct a health index with a good degradation trend and a smaller threshold variance to represent the health state of equipment, and then estimates and predicts the health state of the equipment by taking the data of the health index as an observed value of odorless particle filtering, so that the residual life of the multi-sensor system is predicted finally.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1, a method for predicting the remaining life of a multi-sensor system mainly includes representing a health index of an electromechanical device by a data fusion method and predicting the health state of the electromechanical device by a particle filtering method, the data fusion method constructs the health index having a good degradation trend and a smaller threshold variance by fusing data of a plurality of sensors to represent the health state of the device, and when the health index is constructed by the data fusion method, the health index is often allowed to have a larger improved second-order entropy, so that the health index has a good overall monotonic trend, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting the remaining life of the electromechanical device, and the specific implementation steps are as follows:
s1, calculating an improved second-order permutation entropy of sensor data, and constructing a health index by the improved second-order permutation entropy and a data fusion method to have a good integral monotonous trend and a smaller fault threshold error so that the residual life prediction precision is higher;
s1.1: the ith sensor data xiMapping to a 2-dimensional phase space for reconstruction, and obtaining a phase space matrix as shown in the following:
a is a reconstructed phase space matrix, B is a submatrix in A, and n is the length of sensor data;
s1.2: for each state vector of the above reconstructed phase space matrix, a symbol sequence is obtained:
S(l)=[m1,m2],l=1,2,…,n*(n-1)/2
where l is the state vector index, [ m ]1,m2]There are two possibilities pi for permutation according to the magnitude of the state vector values1=[0,1]And pi2=[1,0]When two numerical values in the state vector are equal, take [0, 1%]Comparing the magnitude of the numerical value in each state vector to obtain the arrangement relation of each state vector;
s1.3: calculating the corresponding permutation pi of all state vectors1,π2The probability of (c) is as follows:
wherein # represents the number;
s1.4: calculating an improved second-order permutation entropy value of the sensor data, wherein the improved second-order permutation entropy calculation formula is as follows:
S2=abs(p(π1)log2[p(π1)]-p(π2)log2[p(π2)])
wherein abs () is the absolute value;
s2: calculating and comparing improved second-order permutation entropy values of the sensor data according to the calculation method of S1;
s3: selecting improved sensor data with maximum second-order arrangement entropy and good integral monotony trend for data fusion, constructing a health index capable of representing the health state of the multi-sensor system,
s3.1: and (3) constructing a health index at the time t, wherein a health index construction formula is as follows:
Ht=x·,tω t=0,1,2,...,ni
where ω is a weight vector, x·,t∈R1×SIs a matrix of measurements collected from the S sensors;
s3.2: solving the above two-target optimization problem by genetic algorithm to obtain the optimal weight vector omega*Ensuring that the health indicator has good overall monotonous trend and smaller fault threshold variance:
s.t.ω′1S=1
wherein S2ω(d) Is an improved second order permutation entropy value of the health index determined by the weight vector omega,is the fault threshold variance of the health index determined by the weight vector ω,1S∈RS×1The vector with the value of 1 is adopted, and the fault threshold variance calculation formula is as follows:
wherein Y ∈ RM×SIs a matrix of fault values, M is the number of training units;
s4: the health index is used as an observed value of a particle filter method, the health state prediction of a multi-sensor system is realized, and the particle filter can be widely applied to the prediction of the residual service life of equipment because the particle filter can better solve the state estimation problem of a nonlinear and non-Gaussian system.
According to the working principle, data of a plurality of sensors are fused by a data fusion method, a health index with a good degradation trend and a small threshold variance is constructed to represent the health state of equipment, then the health index is used as an observed value of a particle filtering method, a prediction model obtained by a particle filtering algorithm is used for predicting the health state of a system, the residual life of the electromechanical equipment is finally calculated, and the data fusion method and the particle filtering method are matched with each other for use, so that the prediction precision of the residual life of the electromechanical equipment is further improved.
Example 2
Referring to fig. 1, the difference between the present embodiment and the above embodiment is: the unscented kalman filter is used by the present embodiment to select the proposed distribution for particle filtering, since the particle filtering algorithm uses a prior distribution as the proposed density distribution function, when the coincidence degree of the prior distribution and the posterior distribution is very small, the effect of the particle filter algorithm is poor, so that when the particle filter algorithm is used for predicting the residual effective life of the electromechanical equipment, the prediction precision is correspondingly reduced, the present embodiment therefore employs unscented kalman filtering to select the proposed distribution for particle filtering, first in the sampling phase, with unscented kalman filtering to calculate for each particle its mean and covariance, secondly, the mean value and the covariance are used for guiding sampling, and the latest observation information is utilized when the mean value and the covariance are calculated by the tasteless Kalman filtering, it is closer to the posterior distribution and thus improves the accuracy of the remaining life of the computer electronics.
The method for predicting the residual life of the multi-sensor system mainly comprises the steps of representing a health index of electromechanical equipment by adopting a data fusion method and realizing the prediction of the health state of the electromechanical equipment by adopting a tasteless particle filtering method, constructing the health index with a good degradation trend and a smaller threshold variance by fusing data of a plurality of sensors by the data fusion method to represent the health state of the equipment, and generally enabling the health index to have a larger improved second-order permutation entropy when constructing the health index by the data fusion method to enable the health index to have a good integral monotonous trend, so that the prediction precision of the residual life of the electromechanical equipment is improved, and the method comprises the following specific implementation steps:
s1, calculating an improved second-order permutation entropy of sensor data, and constructing a health index by the improved second-order permutation entropy and a data fusion method to have a good integral monotonous trend and a smaller fault threshold error so that the residual life prediction precision is higher;
s1.1: the ith sensor data xiMapping to a 2-dimensional phase space for reconstruction, and obtaining a phase space matrix as shown in the following:
a is a reconstructed phase space matrix, B is a submatrix in A, and n is the length of sensor data;
s1.2: for each state vector of the above reconstructed phase space matrix, a symbol sequence is obtained:
S(l)=[m1,m2],l=1,2,...,n*(n-1)/2
where l is the state vector index, [ m ]1,m2]There are two possibilities pi for permutation according to the magnitude of the state vector values1=[0,1]And pi2=[1,0]When two numerical values in the state vector are equal, take [0, 1%]Comparing the magnitude of the numerical value in each state vector to obtain the arrangement relation of each state vector;
s1.3: calculating the corresponding permutation pi of all state vectors1,π2The probability of (c) is as follows:
wherein # represents the number;
s1.4: calculating an improved second-order permutation entropy value of the sensor data, wherein the improved second-order permutation entropy calculation formula is as follows:
S2=abs(p(π1)log2[p(π1)]-p(π2)log2[p(π2)])
wherein abs () is the absolute value;
s2: calculating and comparing improved second-order permutation entropy values of the sensor data according to the calculation method of S1;
s3: selecting improved sensor data with maximum second-order arrangement entropy and good integral monotony trend for data fusion, constructing a health index capable of representing the health state of the multi-sensor system,
s3.1: and (3) constructing a health index at the time t, wherein a health index construction formula is as follows:
Ht=x·,tω t=0,1,2,...,ni
where ω is a weight vector, x·,t∈R1×SIs a matrix of measurements collected from the S sensors;
s3.2: solving the above two-target optimization problem by genetic algorithm to obtain the optimal weight vector omega*Ensuring that the health indicator has good overall monotonous trend and smaller fault threshold variance:
s.t.ω′1S=1
wherein S2ω(d) Is an improved second order permutation entropy value of the health index determined by the weight vector omega,is the fault threshold variance of the health index determined by the weight vector ω,1S∈RS×1The vector with the value of 1 is adopted, and the fault threshold variance calculation formula is as follows:
wherein Y ∈ RM×SIs a matrix of fault values, M is the number of training units;
s4: the health index is used as an observed value of a particle filtering method to realize the health state prediction of a multi-sensor system, the particle filtering method specifically comprises the following steps, the particle filtering is widely applied and used for predicting the residual service life of equipment because the particle filtering can better solve the state estimation problem of a nonlinear and non-Gaussian system,
s4.1: constructing a state space model of the multi-sensing system:
θk=f(θk-1,υk)
Hk=h(θk,νk)
wherein θ is a state vector, f is a nonlinear function, upsilon is a process variance, H is a health index, H is a nonlinear observation function, and v is a measurement variance;
s4.2: generating an important density function of the particle filter by using unscented Kalman filtering;
the particle filter algorithm adopts prior distribution as a suggested density distribution function, and when the coincidence degree of the prior distribution and the posterior distribution is very small, the particle filter effect is poor, so that the suggested distribution of the particle filter is selected by adopting tasteless Kalman filtering, particularly, in the sampling stage, the mean value and the covariance of each particle are calculated by using the tasteless Kalman filtering, and then the sampling is guided by using the mean value and the covariance, and the latest observation information is utilized when the mean value and the covariance are calculated by using the tasteless Kalman filtering, so that the particle filter algorithm is closer to the posterior distribution;
s4.21: first, k is set to 0, and N is extracted from the prior distributionsParticles and determining the weight to be 1/NsThen, initializing parameters:
augmented initialization state vector and covariance matrix:
s4.22: gaussian point and weight calculation:
s4.23: and (3) time updating:
s4.24: and (3) updating the measurement value:
s4.3: calculating the sampling particle and updating the particle weight:
s4.4: if the number of significant particles is below a given threshold, resampling is performed:
s4.5: and (3) state estimation:
if k is less than or equal to T, making k equal to k +1, and returning to step S4.22, otherwise, ending prediction;
whereinFor selected particles, alpha and beta are parameters of the tasteless transform, Wi (m)And Wi (c)The weight coefficients, θ, of the first-order statistical characteristic and the second-order statistical characteristic, respectivelyk|k-1、Pk|k-1And Hk|k-1One-step prediction of the state quantity, variance and measured value, respectively, KkIn order to filter the gain of the filter,andrespectively the final mean value and the variance of the tasteless Kalman filtering;
s4.6: predicting the health state of the system by using a prediction model obtained by a tasteless particle filtering algorithm;
s4.7: determining the remaining life of the multi-sensing system by predicting the health state:
where TH is the fault threshold of the system, TRULIs the remaining life of the system and T is the current time.
The working principle of the embodiment is as follows: the method comprises the steps of firstly fusing data of a plurality of sensors by adopting a data fusion method, constructing a health index with good degradation trend and smaller threshold variance by adopting an improved second-order permutation entropy and data fusion method to represent the health state of equipment, then taking the health index as an observed value of an odorless particle filtering method, obtaining a prediction model by adopting an odorless particle filtering algorithm and predicting the health state of a system, and further improving the accuracy of predicting the residual life of the electromechanical equipment by mutually matching the data fusion method and the particle filtering method.
It is noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (5)
1. A method for predicting the remaining life of a multi-sensor system is characterized in that: the specific implementation steps are as follows:
s1 calculating improved second order permutation entropy of the sensor data;
s2: calculating improved second-order permutation entropy values of the sensor data according to the calculation method of S1 and comparing;
s3: selecting an improved second-order permutation entropy value, using data of the sensor for data fusion, and constructing a health index capable of representing the health state of the multi-sensor system;
s4: the health index is used as the observed value of the particle filtering method to realize the health state prediction of the multi-sensor system,
wherein: the calculating of the improved second order permutation entropy of the sensor data comprises the steps of:
s1.1: the ith sensor data xiMapping to a 2-dimensional phase space for reconstruction, and obtaining a phase space matrix as shown in the following:
a is a reconstructed phase space matrix, B is a submatrix in A, and n is the length of sensor data;
s1.2: for each state vector of the reconstructed phase-space matrix, a symbol sequence is obtained:
S(l)=[m1,m2],l=1,2,…,n*(n-1)/2
where l is the state vector index, [ m ]1,m2]There are two possibilities pi for permutation according to the magnitude of the state vector values1=[0,1]And pi2=[1,0]When two numerical values in the state vector are equal, take [0, 1%]Comparing the magnitude of the numerical value in each state vector to obtain the arrangement relation of each state vector;
s1.3: calculating the corresponding permutation pi of all state vectors1,π2The probability of (d);
s1.4: a second order rank entropy value of the sensor data improvement is calculated.
3. The remaining life prediction method of a multi-sensor system according to claim 2, characterized in that: the calculation formula for calculating the improved second order entropy value of the sensor data is as follows:
S2=abs(p(π1)log2[p(π1)]-p(π2)log2[p(π2)])
where abs () is the absolute value.
4. The remaining life prediction method of a multi-sensor system according to claim 3, characterized in that: the method for constructing the health index capable of representing the health state of the multi-sensor system specifically comprises the following steps:
s3.1: constructing a health index at the time t;
s3.2: solving the dual-target optimization problem through a genetic algorithm to obtain an optimal weight vector omega*And calculating the integral monotonous trend and the fault threshold variance of the health index.
5. The remaining life prediction method of a multi-sensor system according to claim 4, characterized in that: firstly, using tasteless Kalman filtering to generate an important density function of particle filtering, and calculating the mean value and covariance of each particle by using the tasteless Kalman filtering in a sampling stage; and secondly using the mean and covariance to guide sampling.
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