CN110427595B - Method for quantitatively analyzing influence of shared bicycle on renting amount of public bicycles with piles - Google Patents
Method for quantitatively analyzing influence of shared bicycle on renting amount of public bicycles with piles Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of shared bicycles on the renting amount of public bicycles with piles, which comprises the following steps: determining a release time point of a shared bicycle; (2) acquiring usage data of the public bicycles with piles; (3) selecting a function form and calibrating parameters; and (4) calculating the influence effect. The method comprises the steps of collecting daily renting amount of the public bicycle renting points with piles in a period of time, constructing an interrupted time sequence by using the daily renting amount of the public bicycle renting points with piles in the period of time before and after the shared bicycle is put in by means of a breakpoint time sequence method, and comparing and analyzing the renting amount change conditions before and after the shared bicycle is put in to obtain the influence of the shared bicycle on the renting amount of the public bicycle with piles. The method does not need random experiments and manual searching of control groups, is low in cost, and can obtain a quantitative result of the influence of the shared bicycle on the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of bicycle leasing systems, in particular to a method for judging influence of shared bicycles on usage amount of public bicycles with piles.
Background
In recent two years, shared bicycles are used as a new bicycle leasing business, which has great influence on the transportation mode of people, and public bicycles with piles are popularized in many cities before. Whether it is a public bicycle with piles or a shared bicycle, has good data mining potential.
At present, in the scientific research field and the patent application field, the research on the influence of the shared bicycle on the traditional public bicycle with the pile is not much, and the research aspect mainly focuses on exploring the similarities and differences of two types of bicycle leasing systems and the reasonable redistribution problem of the public bicycle with the pile and the shared bicycle. Research on a bicycle rental system in the patent aspect is usually focused on scheduling, designing and the like. The existing research on the influence of shared bicycles on piled public bicycles usually needs to find a proper leasing point without throwing a shared bicycle area as a control group, and in practical application, sometimes the control group cannot be found, so that the original method cannot be applied to all situations.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problems and provides a method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of shared bicycles on the renting quantity of public bicycles with piles.
In order to achieve the purpose, the method adopted by the invention is as follows: a method for quantitatively analyzing influence of shared bicycles on renting quantity of public bicycles with piles comprises the following steps:
a method for quantitatively analyzing influence of shared bicycles on renting quantity of public bicycles with piles comprises the following steps:
(1) Determining the release time point of the shared bicycle: according to the release date d of the local shared bicycle, determining the time period before d as t 0 D is followed by a period of time t 1 。
(2) Pile public bicycle renting amount data acquisition: collecting time period t before each public bicycle rental point puts in a shared bicycle 0 Internal lease U 0i (ii) a Sharing time period t after single vehicle is put in 1 Internal lease U 1i (ii) a All are counted in units of times/day.
(3) Function form selection and parameter calibration: the function f (t) represents the relationship between lease amount and time. The final functional form is selected from the following 2 functional forms:
(1) including interactive items: u = α + β 1 *t+β 2 *Treat+β 3 *t_Treat_Interaction+ε；
(2) Contains no interactive items: u = α + β 1 *t+β 2 *Treat+ε；
Wherein U is daily renting amount of the public bicycle with the piles; α is the intercept of the usage function; t is a date number corresponding to the rent quantity observation value, the first day is 1, the second day is 2, and so on; treat is an indicating variable before and after the shared bicycle is put in, and is 0 if the time period of the observed value is before the shared bicycle is put in, or is 1 if the time period is after the shared bicycle is put in; the Interaction term t _ Treat _ Interaction is the product of Treat and t. Beta is a 1 Before the sharing bicycle is released, the slope of the change trend of the renting amount along with the time is obtained; beta is a beta 2 The variation of intercept in the time period after the shared bicycle is thrown; beta is a beta 3 After being put in for sharing bicycleThe variation of the slope of the variation trend of the renting amount along with the time; ε is a random error term. And judging whether the shared bicycle influences the trend of the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles along with the change of time or not according to a scatter diagram for drawing the renting amount and the date, if the scatter diagram shows that the time-varying trend of the using amount of the public bicycles with the piles is the same as the original trend after the shared bicycle is put in, selecting a function form (2), and if not, selecting the function form (1). After the function form is determined, the existing data set is used for calibrating each parameter.
(4) Calculating the influence effect: the average influence effect of the shared bicycle on the renting amount of the public bicycles with piles is the beta which is obtained by the calibration in the step (3) 2 If beta is 2 Negative results indicate that the average daily rental of the public bicycles with the piles is reduced by beta after the shared bicycle is put into use 2 Secondly; if the functional form (1) is selected in step (3), then β 3 Shows the influence of the shared bicycle on the time-varying trend of the renting amount of the piled public bicycles.
Has the advantages that:
the invention provides a method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of shared bicycles on the renting amount of public bicycles with piles, which does not need random experiments, has low cost, does not need to manually search a comparison group, and constructs an interrupted time sequence of the renting amount of the public bicycles with piles after determining the putting date of the shared bicycles, namely a data set in which the renting amount data of each renting point every day are arranged in sequence. Therefore, the renting quantity of each renting point in the time period before the time is released is used as a control group, and the influence of the shared bicycle on the renting quantity of the public bicycles with the piles can be accurately evaluated by using a breakpoint time series method.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of the daily rental quantity change of a public bicycle rental station with a stake according to the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described with reference to the following figures and specific examples.
As shown in fig. 1 and 2, a method for determining the influence of an expressway fixed-point speed meter on the number of traffic accidents includes the following steps:
(1) Determining the release time point of the shared bicycle: according to the release date d of the local shared bicycle, determining the time period before d as t 0 D is followed by a period of time t 1 As shown in fig. 2.
(2) Pile public bicycle renting amount data acquisition: collecting time period t before each public bicycle rental point puts in shared bicycles 0 Internal lease amount U 0i (ii) a Sharing time period t after single vehicle is put in 1 Internal lease U 1i (ii) a Are counted in units of times/day, as shown in FIG. 2.
(3) Function form selection and parameter calibration: the function f (t) represents the relationship between lease amount and time. The final functional form is selected from the following 2 functional forms:
(1) including interactive items: u = α + β 1 *t+β 2 *Treat+β 3 *t_Treat_Interaction+ε；
(2) Contains no interactive items: u = α + β 1 *t+β 2 *Treat+ε；
Wherein U is daily renting amount of the public bicycle with the piles; α is the intercept of the usage function; t is a date number corresponding to the rent quantity observation value, the first day is 1, the second day is 2, and so on; treat is an indicating variable before and after the shared bicycle is put in, and is 0 if the time period of the observed value is before the shared bicycle is put in, and is 1 if the time period is after the shared bicycle is put in; the Interaction term t _ Treat _ Interaction is the product of Treat and t. Beta is a 1 The slope of the change trend of the renting amount along with time before the shared bicycle is released; beta is a 2 The variation of intercept in the time period after the shared bicycle is thrown; beta is a 3 The change of the slope of the change trend of the renting amount along with the time after the shared bicycle is released; ε is a random error term. And judging whether the shared bicycle influences the trend of the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles along with the change of time or not according to a scatter diagram for drawing the renting amount and the date, if the scatter diagram shows that the time-varying trend of the using amount of the public bicycles with the piles is the same as the original trend after the shared bicycle is put in, selecting a function form (2), and if not, selecting the function form (1). After determining the functional form, each parameter is processed by using the existing data setCalibration, as shown in FIG. 2.
(4) Calculating the influence effect: the average influence effect of the shared bicycle on the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles is beta which is obtained by the calibration in the step (3) 2 If beta is 2 Negative results indicate that the average daily rental of the public bicycles with the piles is reduced by beta after the shared bicycle is put into use 2 Secondly; if the function form (1) is selected in step (3), then β 3 Shows the effect of sharing a bicycle on the time-dependent trend of the amount of rented public bicycles with piles, as shown in fig. 2.
The present invention will be described with reference to specific examples.
1) Determining the release time point of the shared bicycle: according to official data, determining specific date d of the shared single-vehicle release in the research area, and assuming that the time period before d is t 0 D is followed by a period of time t 1 。
2) Pile public bicycle renting amount data acquisition: collecting time period t before each public bicycle rental point puts in a shared bicycle 0 Internal lease U 0i (ii) a Sharing time period t after single vehicle is put in 1 Internal lease amount U 1i (ii) a All the statistics are counted by taking the times/day as a unit, and the obtained related data are shown in a table 1-1.
TABLE 1-1 statistics table for sample data collection
3) Function form selection and parameter calibration: and drawing a scatter diagram of daily rental amount and time of each rental spot, and judging whether the time-varying trend of the rental amount of the public bicycles with the piles after the shared bicycles are put in is obviously changed or not as shown in fig. 1. As can be seen from fig. 1, the trend of change is reduced, but the trend becomes significantly slower after the dosing, so the functional form (1) is selected. After the function form is selected, each parameter is calibrated.
4) Calculating the influence effect: the average influence effect of the shared bicycle on the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles is beta which is obtained by the calibration in the step (3) 2 In this case β 2 Negative, i.e. sharing a single vehicle causes a public stakeAverage daily rental reduction of bicycles by beta 2 (ii) a And beta is 3 For sharing the variation of the time-varying trend of the quantity of rented public bicycles caused by a single bicycle, in this case β 3 Positive indicates that the trend of the reduction in rental amount with time becomes moderate.
While the invention has been shown and described with respect to the preferred embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the invention as defined in the following claims.
Claims (3)
1. A method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of shared bicycles on the renting amount of public bicycles with piles is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) Determining the release time point of the shared bicycle: according to the release date d of the local shared bicycle, determining the time period before d as t 0 D is followed by a period of time t 1 ；
(2) Pile public bicycle renting amount data acquisition: collecting time period t before each public bicycle rental point puts in a shared bicycle 0 Internal lease U 0i (ii) a Shared bicycle put-in time period t 1 Internal lease amount U 1i (ii) a All are counted by taking times/day as a unit;
(3) Function form selection and parameter calibration: the function f (t) represents the relationship between the lease amount and the time, and the final function form comprises the following steps:
(1) including interactive items: u = α + β 1 *t+β 2 *Treat+β 3 *t_Treat_Interaction+ε；
(2) Contains no interactive items: u = α + β 1 *t+β 2 *Treat+ε；
Judging whether the shared bicycle affects the trend of the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles along with the change of time, if the time-varying trend of the using amount of the public bicycles with the piles is the same as the original trend after the shared bicycle is put in, selecting a function form (2), and if not, selecting the function form (1);
wherein U is daily renting amount of the public bicycle with the piles; alpha is the intercept of the lease quantity function; t is the date number corresponding to the observed value of the rent amountThe first day is 1, the second day is 2, and so on; treat is an indicating variable before and after the shared bicycle is put in, and is 0 if the time period of the observation value is before the shared bicycle is put in, and is 1 if the time period of the observation value is after the shared bicycle is put in; the Interaction term t _ Treat _ Interaction is the product of Treat and t; beta is a 1 The slope of the change trend of the renting amount along with time before the shared bicycle is released; beta is a 2 The variation of intercept in the time period after the shared bicycle is thrown; beta is a 3 The change of the slope of the change trend of the hiring amount along with the time after the shared bicycle is released; epsilon is a random error term, and after a function form is determined, each parameter is calibrated by utilizing the existing data set;
(4) Calculating the influence effect: the average influence effect of the shared bicycle on the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles is beta which is obtained by the calibration in the step (3) 2 If beta is 2 Negative indicates that the throwing of the shared bicycle causes the average daily rent of the public bicycles with the piles to be reduced by beta 2 Secondly; if the functional form (1) is selected in step (3), then β 3 Shows the influence of the shared bicycle on the time-varying trend of the renting amount of the piled public bicycles.
2. The method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of shared bicycles on the renting amount of the piled public bicycles as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: and (3) the renting amount data of the public bicycles with piles in the step (2), wherein the number of samples contained in the data in the time period before the putting is equal to or close to equal to that after the putting.
3. The method for quantitatively analyzing the influence of shared bicycles on the renting amount of the piled public bicycles as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: and (3) judging whether the shared bicycle influences the trend of the renting amount of the public bicycles with the piles along with the change of time or not by drawing a scatter diagram of the renting amount and the date.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN108133302A (en) * | 2016-12-01 | 2018-06-08 | 上海浦东建筑设计研究院有限公司 | A kind of public bicycles potential demand Forecasting Methodology based on big data |
| CN109472513A (en) * | 2018-11-23 | 2019-03-15 | 东南大学 | A method of determining that shared bicycle influences public bicycles usage amount |
| CN109583491A (en) * | 2018-11-23 | 2019-04-05 | 温州职业技术学院 | A kind of shared bicycle intelligent dispatching method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN108133302A (en) * | 2016-12-01 | 2018-06-08 | 上海浦东建筑设计研究院有限公司 | A kind of public bicycles potential demand Forecasting Methodology based on big data |
| CN109472513A (en) * | 2018-11-23 | 2019-03-15 | 东南大学 | A method of determining that shared bicycle influences public bicycles usage amount |
| CN109583491A (en) * | 2018-11-23 | 2019-04-05 | 温州职业技术学院 | A kind of shared bicycle intelligent dispatching method |
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| 基于SWOT分析的城市有桩公共自行车;李佳等;《物流工程与管理》;20180331;120-121 * |
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