CN110414776A - Branch trade electrical characteristics quick response analysis system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of branch trade electrical characteristics quick response analysis systems, the present invention collects data by power information acquisition system, PMS2.0 system and same period line loss system, data available is obtained using sampling and interpolation method processing missing values and exceptional value, and then pass through curve iteration, study industry-specific electricity consumption characteristic curve, it was found that its possession electrical characteristics rule, electricity consumption characteristic curve is patterned displaying by visual interface, realize Load Characteristic Analysis visualization, normalization, reply part throttle characteristics is changing and is being difficult to the predicament grasped in real time；It solves existing method or tool and is difficult to support the problems such as changing because of part throttle characteristics brought by electrification again and energy transition and upgrade.
Description
Technical field:
The present invention relates to intelligence for field of power transformation, analyzes system more particularly to a kind of branch trade electrical characteristics quick response
System.
Background technique:
The development of electric power and the level of economic development are closely related.The further in-depth of electric system reform, market warp
The further development of Ji, the implementation of energy-saving and emission-reduction policy and related economic policy, the Load Characteristic Analysis work made is increasingly
It is important.And part throttle characteristics constantly changes with the various influence factors relevant to load prediction such as economic development, Load Characteristic Analysis
Difficulty also accordingly increase.
By reading, the analysis to existing literature, summary show that Load Characteristic Analysis method specifically includes that load curve
Method, method of expertise, correlation analysis, regression analysis, time series method, Principal Component Analysis, factor analysis or ash
The artificial intelligent analysis methods such as color model method, artificial neural network, wavelet analysis method and fuzzy theory method.The client of power supply enterprise
The scale of construction is big, type is more, complicated with electrical characteristics, higher to Electric Power Network Planning level requirement.User of different nature is in different development ranks
Section, the load rule of development is different, and existing method or tool are difficult to support because of electrification and energy transition and upgrade institute band again
The problems such as part throttle characteristics come is changing.
Summary of the invention:
The technical problems to be solved by the present invention are: overcoming the deficiencies of the prior art and provide according to cell name, land used
Division condition of the matter as regionality power supply, and industry-specific electricity consumption characteristic curve is obtained year according to building up, find its possession
With the branch trade electrical characteristics quick response analysis system of electrical characteristics rule.
The technical scheme is that a kind of branch trade electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, is adopted by power information
Collecting system, PMS2.0 system and same period line loss system collect data, utilize sampling and interpolation method processing missing values and exceptional value
Data available is obtained, and then by curve iteration, generates industry-specific electricity consumption characteristic curve, and obtain its possession electrical characteristics
Rule the steps include: the first step, obtain every class land character basic data；Second step calculates the load growth of each cell year by year
Rate；Third step, the load growth rate averaged by homogeneous cells corresponding year, each year that every class land character is calculated are negative
Lotus growth rate；4th step is converted to such saturation degree by every class land character load growth rate；5th step shows that interface is straight
Output analysis is connect as a result, updating the plot load prediction results based on branch trade electrical characteristics simultaneously.
Further, the land character basic data is weekly periodically from power utilization information collection system, PMS2.0 system and same
Phase line loss system obtain, the land character basic data include cell name, land character, build up year and acquisition the time limit in by
Annual peak load.
Further, in the acquisition time limit peak load year by year data manipulation step are as follows: i) in the acquisition time limit
Certain times, there may be shortage of data, then this time fills in 0.
Ii) Growth Rate Calculation needs the continuity of data, and the cell data that lacking occurs in the intermediate time be should give rejecting, be made
Valid data keep continuity.
Iii) each horizontal annual data of cell cannot lack too much, and valid data account for the data that acquisition time limit ratio is lower than 1/4
It should give rejecting.
Iv) the customer charge data acquired should increase year by year, should give rejecting for the user data of load decline.
Further, when the saturation computation, cell load data are unifiedly calculated according to the time is built up, missing portion
Divide and is supplied with 0.
Further, cell load Growth Rate Calculation method are as follows:
Assuming that the cell number that every class land character gets data after investigating is M(k)(k indicates land character number), bears
Lotus growth rate is defined as:
Wherein, i indicates the cell in kth class land character investigational data, i=1,2 ... M(k)；The j expression of years, j=1,
2,...N-1；Indicate kth class land character, i-th of user, the annual peak load in jth year, unit MW.
For cell in certain times there may be shortage of data, according to the quality of data require in agreement, make corresponding
Processing: whenOrWhen equal to 0,It does not calculate, referred to as invalid growth rate (being labeled as "-"), remainingIt is known as having
Imitate growth rate；Remember kth class, jth year effective increasing rateThe collection of subscript i composition is combined into Indicate element in set
Number, i.e. effective increasing rate number.
Further, the calculation method of every class land character load average growth rate are as follows:
N-1 load average growth rate of kth class land character is represented by
Wherein,Indicate kth class land character, the average load growth rate in jth year.
Further, each forcasted years saturation computation method of every class land character are as follows:
Based on the thinking that load adds up, load growth rate is reduced to the saturation degree of each forcasted years, further according to boundary condition
Correct saturation degree coefficient；Boundary condition is that saturation year saturation degree is 1.
Assuming that kmaxIndicate that the land-use style that need to generate typical curve is total,Indicate kth class, the saturation degree in jth year, respectively
Each forcasted years saturation degree of class land character acquires in the following way:
I) all land characters are traversed, k=1 is initialized；
Ii) consider the quality of data, in fact it could happen that such land character all cells starting the several years or the most end several years without
Data, it is assumed that such is fromNian ZhiThere are data in year,And
Iii the initial saturation degree of next year) is obtained according to load average growth rate is cumulative,
Iv) ifReturn step iii)；Otherwise it performs the next step；
V) saturation year initial saturation degree is obtained,
Vi) the regulation for being 1 according to saturation year saturation degree obtains each forcasted years saturation degree by normalization,
Vii) if k≤kmax, k=k+1, return step ii)；Otherwise, calculating terminates.
As kth class, the saturation degree in jth year, remaining does not have calculated saturation degree that can be labeled as due to shortage of data
0。
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: the present invention passes through power information acquisition system, PMS2.0 system and same period line loss system
System collects data, obtains data available using sampling and interpolation method processing missing values and exceptional value, and then pass through curve iteration,
Study industry-specific electricity consumption characteristic curve, find its possession electrical characteristics rule, electricity consumption characteristic curve by visual interface into
Row graphical representation, realizes Load Characteristic Analysis visualization, normalization, and reply part throttle characteristics is changing and is being difficult in real time
The predicament of grasp；Existing method or tool is solved to be difficult to support because of part throttle characteristics brought by electrification again and energy transition and upgrade
The problems such as changing.
Detailed description of the invention:
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of branch trade electrical characteristics quick response analysis system.
Fig. 2 is customer charge data acquisition tables.
Fig. 3 is customer charge data by starting time sorting table.
Specific embodiment:
Embodiment: referring to figure 1, figure 2 and figure 3.
Branch trade electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, passes through power information acquisition system, PMS2.0 system and the same period
Line loss system collects data, obtains data available using sampling and interpolation method processing missing values and exceptional value, and then pass through song
Line interation generates industry-specific electricity consumption characteristic curve, and obtains its possession electrical characteristics rule, the steps include: the first step, obtains
Take every class land character basic data；Second step calculates the load growth rate of each cell year by year；Third step, by homogeneous cells phase
Each year load growth rate of every class land character is calculated in the load growth rate averaged for answering year；4th step, by every class
Land character load growth rate is converted to such saturation degree；5th step shows that interface directly exports analysis as a result, updating simultaneously
Plot load prediction results based on branch trade electrical characteristics.
Further, the land character basic data is weekly periodically from power utilization information collection system, PMS2.0 system and same
Phase line loss system obtain, the land character basic data include cell name, land character, build up year and acquisition the time limit in by
Annual peak load.
Further, in the acquisition time limit peak load year by year data manipulation step are as follows: i) in the acquisition time limit
Certain times, there may be shortage of data, then this time fills in 0.
Ii) Growth Rate Calculation needs the continuity of data, and the cell data that lacking occurs in the intermediate time be should give rejecting, be made
Valid data keep continuity.
Iii) each horizontal annual data of cell cannot lack too much, and valid data account for the data that acquisition time limit ratio is lower than 1/4
It should give rejecting.
Iv) the customer charge data acquired should increase year by year, should give rejecting for the user data of load decline.
Further, when the saturation computation, cell load data are needed same starting line (building up year), and practical
On, cell data is generally with record of practical time (such as: 2012), it is therefore desirable to by unified starting time (building up year) weight
New to arrange, lack part is supplied with 0.Data acquisition is limited to N, 0~N-1 of each forcasted years serial number year, by taking Fig. 2 as an example, arranges
Afterwards as shown in Figure 3.
Further, cell load Growth Rate Calculation method are as follows:
Assuming that the cell number that every class land character gets data after investigating is M(k)(k indicates land character number), bears
Lotus growth rate is defined as:
Wherein, i indicates the cell in kth class land character investigational data, i=1,2 ... M(k)；The j expression of years, j=1,
2,...N-1；Indicate kth class land character, i-th of user, the annual peak load in jth year, unit MW.
For cell in certain times there may be shortage of data, according to the quality of data require in agreement, make corresponding
Processing: whenOrWhen equal to 0,It does not calculate, referred to as invalid growth rate (being labeled as "-"), remainingReferred to as
Effective increasing rate；Remember kth class, jth year effective increasing rateThe collection of subscript i composition is combined into Indicate element in set
Number, i.e. effective increasing rate number.
Further, the calculation method of every class land character load average growth rate are as follows:
N-1 load average growth rate of kth class land character is represented by
Wherein,Indicate kth class land character, the average load growth rate in jth year.
Further, each forcasted years saturation computation method of every class land character are as follows:
Based on the thinking that load adds up, load growth rate is reduced to the saturation degree of each forcasted years, further according to boundary condition
Correct saturation degree coefficient；Boundary condition is that saturation year saturation degree is 1.
Assuming that kmaxIndicate that the land-use style that need to generate typical curve is total,Indicate kth class, the saturation degree in jth year, respectively
Each forcasted years saturation degree of class land character acquires in the following way:
I) all land characters are traversed, k=1 is initialized；
Ii) consider the quality of data, in fact it could happen that such land character all cells starting the several years or the most end several years without
Data, it is assumed that such is fromNian ZhiThere are data in year,And
Iii the initial saturation degree of next year) is obtained according to load average growth rate is cumulative,
Iv) ifReturn step iii)；Otherwise it performs the next step；
V) saturation year initial saturation degree is obtained,
Vi) the regulation for being 1 according to saturation year saturation degree obtains each forcasted years saturation degree by normalization,
Vii) if k≤kmax, k=k+1, return step ii)；Otherwise, calculating terminates.
As kth class, the saturation degree in jth year, remaining does not have calculated saturation degree that can be labeled as due to shortage of data
0。
Data are collected by power information acquisition system, PMS2.0 system and same period line loss system, using sampling and are inserted
Value method processing missing values and exceptional value obtain data available, and then by curve iteration, study industry-specific electricity consumption characteristic curve,
It was found that its possession electrical characteristics rule, electricity consumption characteristic curve is patterned displaying by visual interface, by personnel according to
Electrical feature curve predicts the plot load of branch trade electrical characteristics.
The above described is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention in any form, it is all
It is any simple modification, equivalent change and modification to the above embodiments according to the technical essence of the invention, still falls within
In the range of technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of branch trade electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, pass through power information acquisition system, PMS2.0 system and same
Phase line loss system collects data, obtains data available using sampling and interpolation method processing missing values and exceptional value, and then pass through
Curve iteration generates industry-specific electricity consumption characteristic curve, and obtains its possession electrical characteristics rule, the steps include: the first step,
Obtain every class land character basic data；Second step calculates the load growth rate of each cell year by year；Third step, by homogeneous cells
The load growth rate averaged in corresponding year, is calculated each year load growth rate of every class land character；4th step, by every
Class land character load growth rate is converted to such saturation degree；5th step shows that interface directly exports analysis as a result, simultaneously more
Newly based on the plot load prediction results of branch trade electrical characteristics.
2. branch trade according to claim 1 electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, it is characterized in that: the land character
Basic data is periodically obtained from power utilization information collection system, PMS2.0 system and same period line loss system weekly, the land character base
Plinth data include cell name, land character, build up peak load year by year in year and the acquisition time limit.
3. branch trade according to claim 1 electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, it is characterized in that: the acquisition time limit
The inside data manipulation step of peak load year by year are as follows: i) certain times in the acquisition time limit, there may be shortage of data, then this
Time fills in 0.
Ii) Growth Rate Calculation needs the continuity of data, and the cell data that lacking occurs in the intermediate time should give rejecting, makes effectively
Data keep continuity.
Iii) each horizontal annual data of cell cannot lack too much, and valid data account for data of the acquisition time limit ratio lower than 1/4 should
To reject.
Iv) the customer charge data acquired should increase year by year, should give rejecting for the user data of load decline.
4. branch trade according to claim 1 electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, it is characterized in that: the saturation degree meter
When calculation, cell load data are unifiedly calculated according to the time is built up, and lack part is supplied with 0.
5. branch trade according to claim 1 electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, it is characterized in that: cell load increases
Rate calculation method are as follows:
Assuming that the cell number that every class land character gets data after investigating is M(k)(k indicates land character number), load increases
Long rate is defined as:
Wherein, i indicates the cell in kth class land character investigational data, i=1,2 ... M(k)；The j expression of years, j=1,2,
...N-1；Indicate kth class land character, i-th of user, the annual peak load in jth year, unit MW.
For cell in certain times there may be shortage of data, according to the quality of data require in agreement, make respective handling:
WhenOrWhen equal to 0,It does not calculate, referred to as invalid growth rate (being labeled as "-"), remainingReferred to as effectively increase
Long rate；Remember kth class, jth year effective increasing rateThe collection of subscript i composition is combined into Indicate element number in set,
That is effective increasing rate number.
6. branch trade according to claim 1 electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, it is characterized in that: every class land character
The calculation method of load average growth rate are as follows:
N-1 load average growth rate of kth class land character is represented by
Wherein,Indicate kth class land character, the average load growth rate in jth year.
7. branch trade according to claim 1 electrical characteristics quick response analysis system, it is characterized in that: every class land character
Each forcasted years saturation computation method are as follows:
Based on the thinking that load adds up, load growth rate is reduced to the saturation degree of each forcasted years, is corrected further according to boundary condition
Saturation degree coefficient；Boundary condition is that saturation year saturation degree is 1.
Assuming that kmaxIndicate that the land-use style that need to generate typical curve is total,Indicate kth class, the saturation degree in jth year, all kinds of use
Property each forcasted years saturation degree in ground acquires in the following way:
I) all land characters are traversed, k=1 is initialized；
Ii the quality of data) is considered, in fact it could happen that all cells starting several years of such land character or most end several years no data,
Assuming that such is fromNian ZhiThere are data in year,And
Iii the initial saturation degree of next year) is obtained according to load average growth rate is cumulative,
Iv) ifReturn step iii)；Otherwise it performs the next step；
V) saturation year initial saturation degree is obtained,
Vi) the regulation for being 1 according to saturation year saturation degree obtains each forcasted years saturation degree by normalization,
Vii) if k≤kmax, k=k+1, return step ii)；Otherwise, calculating terminates.
As kth class, the saturation degree in jth year, remaining does not have calculated saturation degree can be labeled as 0 due to shortage of data.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN112700069A (en) * | 2021-01-15 | 2021-04-23 | 国家电网有限公司 | Method for predicting short-term load of regional power distribution network containing energy storage |
| CN117543563A (en) * | 2023-11-23 | 2024-02-09 | 国网河南省电力公司郑州供电公司 | Short-term power load prediction method and system based on machine learning |
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| US20070260336A1 (en) * | 2004-10-29 | 2007-11-08 | Kazuaki Iwamura | Long Infrastructure Management System and Program |
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