CN110401224A - One kind is based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation convergence trend forecasting method and system - Google Patents
One kind is based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation convergence trend forecasting method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses one kind based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation convergence trend forecasting method and system.This method comprises: the output area of wind power is divided into multiple power intervals；The power space represents output scene；Calculate the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene；According to the minimum output power and the peak power output, it is fitted the continuous output reconstruct curve of each scene, determines the continuous output time；Quadratic function fitting is carried out to the continuous output reconstruct curve of each scene, obtains target installed capacity parameter；According to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time, the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity is reconstructed；According to the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, predict that wind-powered electricity generation converges trend.The present invention is capable of the tendency variation of quantitative analysis wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve, obtains the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, and prediction wind-powered electricity generation converges trend.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to wind-powered electricity generations to converge trend prediction field, pre- based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation convergence trend more particularly to one kind
Survey method and system.
Background technique
The renewable energy power generation form that wind-powered electricity generation is utilized as most commercial development is to solve China and the world today
The important channel of the energy, environmental crisis.Fast-developing situation is always maintained in China in recent years, outside the cluster group of large-scale wind power field
Transmission of electricity is sent to have become set.Currently, China is on Jiuquan, Hami, Hebei, Jilin, Meng Dong, Meng Xi, jiangsu coast, mountain
The abundant area of the wind energy resources such as east, Heilungkiang, Shanxi, has invested to build 10 ten million multikilowatt wind power bases.The first three quarters in 2017,
Newly-increased wind-powered electricity generation is installed 9,700,000 kilowatts, and China's wind-powered electricity generation total installed capacity reaches 1.57 hundred million kilowatts.
Since wind energy has a natural quality of random fluctuation, wind-powered electricity generation Interconnection Scale uprush will certainly operation to power grid,
The various aspects such as planning have an impact.In fact, the research by all kinds of different angles can be found, with the increasing of wind-powered electricity generation cluster scale
Greatly, wind power output power fluctuation gradually slows down, and wind power output power shows " convergence (smooth) effect ", and this is exactly extensive
The main reason for wind farm group is from single machine or different single wind field wave characteristic, and further research wind-powered electricity generation networking relative influence
Important prerequisite.In view of current large-scale wind electricity base be all extended on the basis of original small-scale wind farm group and
At, the variation tendency of effect how is converged come wind power base after quantitative analysis enlarging according to the convergence feature of existing wind-powered electricity generation scale,
It has important practical significance for further researching and solving Electric Power Network Planning problem caused by wind-powered electricity generation is networked.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide one kind based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation convergence trend forecasting method and system, quantitatively to divide
The tendency variation for analysing wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve, obtains the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, predicts wind-powered electricity generation
Convergence trend.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides following schemes:
One kind converging trend forecasting method based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which comprises
The output area of wind power is divided into multiple power intervals；The power space represents output scene；
Calculate the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene；
According to the minimum output power and the peak power output, the continuous output reconstruct for being fitted each scene is bent
Line determines the continuous output time；
Quadratic function fitting is carried out to the continuous output reconstruct curve of each scene, obtains target installed capacity parameter；
According to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time, the wind-powered electricity generation under target installed capacity is reconstructed
Continuous output curve；
According to the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, predict that wind-powered electricity generation converges trend.
Optionally, the minimum output power and peak power output for calculating each output scene, specifically includes:
Obtain the installed capacity of wind-driven power of wind field；
Obtain the output scene number；
According to the installed capacity of wind-driven power and the output scene number, the minimum output of each output scene is calculated
Power and peak power output.
Optionally, after the minimum output power for calculating each output scene and peak power output, also
Include:
Output scene and output power that rejecting output power is zero are greater than the output scene of output power threshold value.
Optionally, it according to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time, reconstructs target installation and holds
After wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under amount, further includes:
Obtain the precision evaluation index of the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity；
According to the precision evaluation index, the precision of the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under the target installed capacity is evaluated.
The present invention also provides one kind to converge trend predicting system based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, the system comprises:
Division module, for the output area of wind power to be divided into multiple power intervals；The power space represents
Export scene；
Computing module, for calculating the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene；
First fitting module, for being fitted each scene according to the minimum output power and the peak power output
Continuous output reconstruct curve, determine the continuous output time；
Second fitting module carries out quadratic function fitting for the continuous output reconstruct curve to each scene, obtains target
Installed capacity parameter；
Reconstructed module, for reconstructing target dress according to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time
Wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under machine capacity；
Prediction module, for predicting that wind-powered electricity generation converges trend according to the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity.
Optionally, the computing module specifically includes:
First acquisition unit, for obtaining the installed capacity of wind-driven power of wind field；
Second acquisition unit, for obtaining the output scene number；
Computing unit, for calculating each output according to the installed capacity of wind-driven power and the output scene number
The minimum output power and peak power output of scene.
Optionally, further includes:
Module is proposed, for rejecting output scene that output power is zero and output power greater than output power threshold value
Export scene.
Optionally, further includes:
Evaluation index obtains module, and the precision evaluation for obtaining the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity refers to
Mark；
Evaluation module, for according to the precision evaluation index, the wind-powered electricity generation evaluated under the target installed capacity to continue
The precision of force curve.
Compared with prior art, the present invention has following technical effect that the present invention has fully considered continuous output curve
Scene partitioning, provides the branch scape reconstructing method of continuous output curve, and this method being capable of quantitative analysis wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve
Tendency variation, obtain the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, in conjunction with reconstruct curve precision evaluation index body
System, verifies the reasonability of method, and scientific and reasonable, strong applicability, effect is good, can be grid-connected for large-scale wind power cluster
Planning, safe operation and dispatching of power netwoks effective technological guidance is provided.
Detailed description of the invention
It in order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, below will be to institute in embodiment
Attached drawing to be used is needed to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only some implementations of the invention
Example, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without any creative labor, can also be according to these attached drawings
Obtain other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart that the embodiment of the present invention converges trend forecasting method based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation；
Fig. 2 is that the continuous output under 10 scene partitioning of the embodiment of the present invention reconstructs curve graph；
Fig. 3 is that the continuous output under 5 scene partitioning of the embodiment of the present invention reconstructs curve graph；
Fig. 4 is that the continuous output under 20 scene partitioning of the embodiment of the present invention reconstructs curve graph；
Fig. 5 is the structural block diagram that the embodiment of the present invention converges trend predicting system based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The object of the present invention is to provide one kind based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation convergence trend forecasting method and system, quantitatively to divide
The tendency variation for analysing wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve, obtains the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, predicts wind-powered electricity generation
Convergence trend.
In order to make the foregoing objectives, features and advantages of the present invention clearer and more comprehensible, with reference to the accompanying drawing and specific real
Applying mode, the present invention is described in further detail.
As shown in Figure 1, based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation convergence trend forecasting method the following steps are included:
Step 101: the output area of wind power is divided into multiple power intervals；The power space represents output field
Scape.
Step 102: calculating the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene.It is specific:
Obtain the installed capacity of wind-driven power of wind field；
Obtain the output scene number；
According to the installed capacity of wind-driven power and the output scene number, the minimum output of each output scene is calculated
Power and peak power output.
Step 103: according to the minimum output power and the peak power output, being fitted the continuous output of each scene
Curve is reconstructed, determines the continuous output time.
Step 104: quadratic function fitting being carried out to the continuous output reconstruct curve of each scene, obtains target installed capacity ginseng
Number.
Step 105: according to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time, reconstructing target installed capacity
Under wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve.
Step 106: according to the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, predicting that wind-powered electricity generation converges trend.
After step 102 further include:
Output scene and output power that rejecting output power is zero are greater than the output scene of output power threshold value.
After step 105 further include:
Obtain the precision evaluation index of the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity；
According to the precision evaluation index, the precision of the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under the target installed capacity is evaluated.
The specific implementation process of this method is as follows:
1) wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve divides scene partitioning
The output area of wind power is divided into several power intervals first, each power interval represent one it is defeated
Scene out,
If the installed capacity of wind-driven power of certain wind field is P, the power interval of this wind field is subjected to N equal part, n-th (1,2 ..., N) is a
The corresponding output power range of scene is (Pmin n, Pmax n], in which:
Pmin n, Pmax nRespectively the minimum output power and peak power output of scene n, calculation formula are as follows:
Pmin n=(n-1) P/N；Pmax n=n × P/N；
Wind field is in actual operation, it may appear that it is referred to as " zero output field by the case where " 0 " exports and crosses output
Scape " and " output scene excessively ", now illustrate zero output and excessively output as follows:
1. maintaining the wind speed of blower starting generally in 2.5m/s or more, in gentle breeze, calm situation, blower does not start, from
And there is the phenomenon that " 0 " power, data is shown, gentle breeze calm causes blower not start and then output of wind electric field occur to be " 0 "
Probability is 20% or so, and in order to avoid first contextual data amount is excessively huge, this corresponding scene is defined as " zero output field
Scape "；
2. it is possible that being higher than the data of rated power in the acquisition of wind power, by excessively high " bad of wherein data value
Data " are rejected, and remainder values are retained as " crossing output scene "；
In order to hold the variation tendency of wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve in each scene, need to carry out wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve
Reasonable scene partitioning, scene partitioning method are to retain the continuous output data in target scene, remaining data points zero, mesh
Be that meet data amount check consistent while guaranteeing to filter out continuous output data in target scene；
2) wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve branch scape reconstructing method
For continuous output curve close to linear scene, using linear function fit, key, which is to fit, to be continued
Power time and power output maximum value, thus can determine fitting function, equivalent lasting with the power output non-zero points number in each scene
It contributes the time；
The maximum output value for remembering scene n is Pmax n, minimum load value is Pmin n, then the continuous output reconstruct curve of scene n can
To be denoted as:
Continuous output curve to different convergence scale wind farm groups in low power output scene is drawn, it is found that it has one
Fixed trailing phenomenon, and non-critical linear function are fitted discovery using matlab Fitting Toolbox, and quadratic function is to this
The fitting effect of scene continuous output curve is best, and therefore, low power output scene j is reconstructed using quadratic function, and reconstruct is bent
Line is denoted as:
yj=ajx2+bjx+cj (2)
Quadratic function fitting is carried out to the low power output scene j of different convergence scales, two-term coefficient a can be obtainedj, once
Term coefficient bj, constant term cjVariation tendency, so that it is determined that target installation under each parameter, and then reconstruct target installation under
Low power output scene continuous output curve；
3) curve precision index appraisement system is reconstructed
1. relativity evaluation index
Ordered series of numbers X is consistent on data amount check with ordered series of numbers Y, and observation occurs in pairs, and between each pair of observation mutually
It is independent, the application scenarios of Spearman, Pearson correlation coefficient are met in terms of correlation calculations, therefore, herein using the two
To evaluate the degree of correlation of two curves, calculation formula is as follows:
In formula: ρapearmanFor Spearman's correlation coefficient, K is the data point number of ordered series of numbers X, dkFor the son for ranking difference d
Collection, dk=Xk-Yk, Xk、YkThe respectively value of k-th of data of ordered series of numbers X, Y；
In formula: E (X), E (Y) are respectively the expectation of ordered series of numbers X, Y, E (X2)、E(Y2) it is respectively ordered series of numbers X2, Y2Expectation, E2
(X)、E2It (Y) is respectively desired square of ordered series of numbers X, Y；
2. error assessment index
Absolute distance D: for quantifying the global error size between two curves, calculation formula is as follows:
The variance var of difference: for quantifying the fluctuating error situation of two curves at various locations, calculation formula is as follows:
In formula:For the mean value for ranking difference d.
Specific embodiment:
The present embodiment will carry out quantitative analysis to the convergence effect trend of large-scale wind power field group's convergence process.Wind power plant
Group is including containing 20 wind fields including above-mentioned wind field, total installation of generating capacity 2649.428MW.Data are measured data in 2012,
Commercial product data acquisition device familiar to those skilled in the art can be used to realize in the acquisition of data.
Under above-mentioned design conditions, using the method for the present invention to the convergence effect trend quantization of embodiment wind-powered electricity generation cluster power
The result of analysis is as follows:
1) wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve divides scene partitioning
The wind power of different output scenes is subjected to screening combination, to obtain the continuous output under different power output scenes
Curve.
2) wind-powered electricity generation continuous output reconstruct curve is as shown in Fig. 2, Fig. 2 is obtained under 10 scene partitionings, reconstruct curve with
Actual curve maintains higher consistency；In order to study influence of the different scenes division for result, the present invention holds wind-powered electricity generation
Continuous power curve carries out 5 scene partitionings, and reconstruct curve is as shown in Figure 3；20 scene partitionings are carried out to continuous output curve, reconstruct is bent
Line is as shown in Figure 4.
3) curve precision evaluation index is reconstructed
Find that different number of scene partitioning, the proximity for reconstructing curve and actual curve is deposited by the comparison of Fig. 2,3,4
The reconstruct curve precision pair under different scenes divide is obtained using the reconstruct curve precision index appraisement system of foundation in difference
It is more as shown in table 1 than table.
Table 1 reconstructs curve precision index and calculates
As shown in Table 1, scene partitioning number is very few will lead to bigger error, and scene partitioning excessively will lead in each scene
Data point number it is less, error of fitting increase.From error criterion, compared to 5 scenes, 20 scene partitionings, 10 scenes are drawn
Two error parameters under being divided to are all minimum, i.e. the method for 10 scene reconstructions of wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve point is more suitable for the remittance of this example
Poly- tendency quantitative research.
The specific embodiment provided according to the present invention, the invention discloses following technical effects: the present invention fully considers
The scene partitioning of continuous output curve, provides the branch scape reconstructing method of continuous output curve, and this method being capable of quantitative analysis wind
The tendency of electric continuous output curve changes, and obtains the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, in conjunction with reconstruct curve
Precision evaluation index system verifies the reasonability of method, and scientific and reasonable, strong applicability, effect is good, can be big rule
The grid-connected planning of mould wind-powered electricity generation cluster, safe operation and dispatching of power netwoks provide effective technological guidance.
Trend predicting system, the system packet are converged based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation as shown in figure 5, the present invention also provides one kind
It includes:
Division module 501, for the output area of wind power to be divided into multiple power intervals；The power space generation
Table exports scene.
Computing module 502, for calculating the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene.
The computing module 502 specifically includes:
First acquisition unit, for obtaining the installed capacity of wind-driven power of wind field；
Second acquisition unit, for obtaining the output scene number；
Computing unit, for calculating each output according to the installed capacity of wind-driven power and the output scene number
The minimum output power and peak power output of scene.
First fitting module 503, for being fitted each field according to the minimum output power and the peak power output
The continuous output of scape reconstructs curve, determines the continuous output time.
Second fitting module 504 carries out quadratic function fitting for the continuous output reconstruct curve to each scene, obtains mesh
Mark installed capacity parameter.
Reconstructed module 505, for reconstructing target according to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time
Wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under installed capacity.
Prediction module 506, for predicting that wind-powered electricity generation convergence becomes according to the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity
Gesture.
Further include:
Module is proposed, for rejecting output scene that output power is zero and output power greater than output power threshold value
Export scene.
Evaluation index obtains module, and the precision evaluation for obtaining the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity refers to
Mark；
Evaluation module, for according to the precision evaluation index, the wind-powered electricity generation evaluated under the target installed capacity to continue
The precision of force curve.
Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, the highlights of each of the examples are with other
The difference of embodiment, the same or similar parts in each embodiment may refer to each other.For system disclosed in embodiment
For, since it is corresponded to the methods disclosed in the examples, so being described relatively simple, related place is said referring to method part
It is bright.
Used herein a specific example illustrates the principle and implementation of the invention, and above embodiments are said
It is bright to be merely used to help understand method and its core concept of the invention；At the same time, for those skilled in the art, foundation
Thought of the invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation manner and application range.In conclusion the content of the present specification is not
It is interpreted as limitation of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. one kind converges trend forecasting method based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
The output area of wind power is divided into multiple power intervals；The power space represents output scene；
Calculate the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene；
According to the minimum output power and the peak power output, it is fitted the continuous output reconstruct curve of each scene, really
Determine the continuous output time；
Quadratic function fitting is carried out to the continuous output reconstruct curve of each scene, obtains target installed capacity parameter；
According to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time, the wind-powered electricity generation reconstructed under target installed capacity continues
Power curve；
According to the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity, predict that wind-powered electricity generation converges trend.
2. according to claim 1 converge trend forecasting method based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that described to calculate respectively
The minimum output power and peak power output of the output scene, specifically include:
Obtain the installed capacity of wind-driven power of wind field；
Obtain the output scene number；
According to the installed capacity of wind-driven power and the output scene number, the minimum output power of each output scene is calculated
And peak power output.
3. according to claim 1 converge trend forecasting method based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that in the calculating
After the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene, further includes:
Output scene and output power that rejecting output power is zero are greater than the output scene of output power threshold value.
4. according to claim 1 converge trend forecasting method based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that according to
Target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time, reconstruct target installed capacity under wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve it
Afterwards, further includes:
Obtain the precision evaluation index of the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity；
According to the precision evaluation index, the precision of the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under the target installed capacity is evaluated.
5. one kind converges trend predicting system based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that the system comprises:
Division module, for the output area of wind power to be divided into multiple power intervals；The power space represents output
Scene；
Computing module, for calculating the minimum output power and peak power output of each output scene；
First fitting module, for being fitted holding for each scene according to the minimum output power and the peak power output
Continuous power output reconstruct curve, determines the continuous output time；
Second fitting module carries out quadratic function fitting for the continuous output reconstruct curve to each scene, obtains target installation
Capacity parameter；
Reconstructed module, for reconstructing target installation and holding according to the target installed capacity parameter and the continuous output time
Wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under amount；
Prediction module, for predicting that wind-powered electricity generation converges trend according to the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity.
6. according to claim 5 converge trend predicting system based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that the calculating mould
Block specifically includes:
First acquisition unit, for obtaining the installed capacity of wind-driven power of wind field；
Second acquisition unit, for obtaining the output scene number；
Computing unit, for calculating each output scene according to the installed capacity of wind-driven power and the output scene number
Minimum output power and peak power output.
7. according to claim 5 converge trend predicting system based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that further include:
Module is proposed, for rejecting the output of output scene that output power is zero and output power greater than output power threshold value
Scene.
8. according to claim 5 converge trend predicting system based on branch scape wind-powered electricity generation, which is characterized in that further include:
Evaluation index obtains module, for obtaining the precision evaluation index of the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output curve under target installed capacity；
Evaluation module, it is bent for according to the precision evaluation index, evaluating the wind-powered electricity generation continuous output under the target installed capacity
The precision of line.
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| CN109193791A (en) * | 2018-11-10 | 2019-01-11 | 东北电力大学 | It is a kind of that tendency isloation state quantization method is converged based on the wind-powered electricity generation for improving shapley value |
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| CUI YANG等: "Research on method of wind power clustering trend based on sub-state reconstruction", 《2018 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON POWER SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY》 * |
| 崔杨等: "基于改进Shapley值的风电汇聚趋势性分状态量化方法", 《电网技术》 * |
| 穆钢等: "基于风电场群汇聚演变趋势的场群持续功率特性预测方法", 《中国电机工程学报》 * |
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