CN110390815A - Determine that the multiple tachymeters of through street combine the method influenced on traffic accident quantity - Google Patents

Determine that the multiple tachymeters of through street combine the method influenced on traffic accident quantity Download PDF

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Publication number
CN110390815A
CN110390815A CN201910591810.1A CN201910591810A CN110390815A CN 110390815 A CN110390815 A CN 110390815A CN 201910591810 A CN201910591810 A CN 201910591810A CN 110390815 A CN110390815 A CN 110390815A
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point
tachymeters
reference point
experimental
accident quantity
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李豪杰
朱曼曼
张子乾
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Southeast University
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Southeast University
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
    • G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
    • G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
    • G08G1/052—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled with provision for determining speed or overspeed

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  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Chemical & Material Sciences (AREA)
  • Analytical Chemistry (AREA)
  • Traffic Control Systems (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of tachymeters for determining through street different number to combine the method influenced on traffic accident quantity, includes the following steps: the selection of (1) score model and parameter calibration；(2) pre- reference point ratio selection and data acquisition；(3) determination of reference point；(4) traffic accident quantity surveying；(5) judge impact effect.The invention has the benefit that combining the reference point with similar variation tendency with tachymeter by choosing, the traffic accident quantity within the scope of the certain radius of experimental point and reference point is investigated respectively, the accident quantity of the two variation front and back is compared and analyzed based on " Double deference estimation model ", it solves the influence of traffic accident transfer characteristic to a certain extent, can accurately assess influence of the combination installation of multiple tachymeters to traffic accident quantity.

Description

Determine that the multiple tachymeters of through street combine the method influenced on traffic accident quantity
Technical field
The present invention relates to road traffic technical field, especially a kind of multiple tachymeter combinations of judgement through street are to traffic The method that accident quantity influences.
Background technique
With the development of the social economy, national life level significantly improves, social car ownership is risen year by year, while by In the complex characteristics of roadnet operation, the quantity that traffic accident occurs also gradually increases, and how to reduce traffic accident Become the research focus of field of traffic in recent years.Roadnet is a complicated system, by " road people-Che-- environment " four A subsystem forms, and again includes various factors in each subsystem, and the variation of each factor environment all may cause friendship The generation of interpreter's event.It counts according to relevant traffic casualty data it is found that wherein since driver takes incorrect driving behavior Cause traffic accident to account for very big ratio, such as arbitrarily changes lane, drives over the speed limit.Related research for this problem It is proposed that on running section installation fixed point tachymeter carries out the driving behavior of real time monitoring driver, it is maximized reduce due to The quantity of traffic accident caused by incorrect driving behavior.
Either in scientific research field or patent application field, the combination of few multiple tachymeters of judgement is to traffic The influence of accident quantity, the research such as in terms of patent for tachymeter and road accident often concentrate on tachymeter to section Monitoring and information acquisition, or have been directed to influence of the single tachymeter to traffic accident quantity；In terms of scientific research, judgement Influence of the tachymeter to traffic accident quantity usually using single tachymeter as research object, and would generally take " front and back comparison Study (before-and-after) ", i.e., the data after data and installation before being installed by single tachymeter compare, But this method lacks the transfer characteristic for considering traffic accident, and does not account between single tachymeter and the other tachymeters of surrounding Interaction and influence each other, so there are identical places do not have in different moments data collected it is representative and comparable The drawbacks of property.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem to be solved by the present invention lies in provide a kind of combination of judgement multiple tachymeters of through street to friendship The method that interpreter's event quantity influences, can accurately assess influence of the installation of multiple tachymeters to traffic accident quantity.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a kind of multiple tachymeters combinations of judgement through street to traffic accident The method that quantity influences, includes the following steps:
(1) score model selection and parameter calibration:
Taking logit model is primary standard model, introduces variable and carries out constructing new fractional value model, comprehensive by calculating Close the determining reference point to experimental point with similar variation tendency of scoring event；CFSCBefore the multiple fixed point tachymeters of expression installation extremely Fatal and Serious conflicts accident quantity, C in 3 years fewPICCasualties at least 3 years before the multiple fixed point tachymeters of expression installation Collision Number, introducing variables D indicates that the research radius of fixed point tachymeter, R indicate that the combination radius of multiple fixed point tachymeters is D Link length summation in range, I indicate that the combination radius of multiple fixed point tachymeters is the intersection quantity within the scope of D, and J is indicated The combination radius of multiple fixed point tachymeters is the road turning point quantity within the scope of D, and D is between 200-1000 meters.α is constant Item, βnA fixed point tachymeter is only mounted with for regression vector coefficient, T=0 expression；
(2) pre- reference point ratio selection and data acquisition:
The sample proportion for choosing pre- reference point and experimental point is 1:1.5~1:30；It is preferred that 1:10, determines pre- reference point ratio Later, investigation and investigation acquisition road area radius length L, fatal and Serious conflicts accident quantity FSCS, casualties collision Accident number PICS, link length summation R, intersection quantity I, road turnover points J, per day magnitude of traffic flow V, Road breadth Degree W, road track number N, whether there is or not central partition F data；
(3) determination of reference point:
Sample data collected each in (2) step are brought into the model of building, corresponding comprehensive score situation is calculated, Finally determining reference point score value should be closest to the score value of experimental point；Calculate the difference of pre- reference point Yu experimental point score value Value γi, therefore the γ of final identified reference point and experimental pointiValue meets γi=min | experimental subjects fractional value-is in advance referring to right As value | }；
(4) traffic accident quantity surveying:
Investigation initial time is the uninstalled time t of multiple tachymeters0, accident number within the scope of experimental point zone radius Measure H0t, accident quantity H within the scope of reference point zone radius0c；Multiple tachymeters, which have been installed, implements time t1, experimental point region Actual accidents quantity in radius is H1t, the accident quantity within the scope of reference point zone radius is H1c；
(5) judge impact effect:
It has been installed in multiple tachymeters and has implemented time t1When, it is assumed that Experimental Area is only mounted with a fixed point tachymeter institute The traffic accident quantity of generation is H'1t, then through street installs multiple fixed point tachymeters to the impact effect of accident quantity are as follows:
Hdid=(H1t-H1c)-(H'1t-H1c)=(H1t-H0c)-(H0t-H0c)
The present invention is by choosing the reference point same radius area for having similar variation tendency to practical tachymeter installation region The traffic accident quantity of Experimental Area and reference area is investigated in domain respectively, before being changed the two based on " Double deference estimation model " Accident quantity afterwards compares and analyzes, and solves the influence of traffic accident transfer characteristic to a certain extent, can be compared with subject to The influence of the true multiple tachymeters of assessment being mounted within the scope of certain radius to traffic accident quantity.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is that experimental subjects and reference object accident quantity of the invention change schematic diagram.
Fig. 2 is method flow schematic diagram of the invention.
Specific embodiment
As illustrated in fig. 1 and 2, a method of determining that one group of tachymeter of through street influences traffic accident quantity, including Following steps:
(1) score model selection and parameter calibration:
Taking logit model is primary standard model, introduces variable and carries out constructing new fractional value model, comprehensive by calculating Close the determining reference point to experimental point with similar variation tendency of scoring event；CFSCBefore the multiple fixed point tachymeters of expression installation extremely Fatal and Serious conflicts accident quantity, C in 3 years fewPICCasualties at least 3 years before the multiple fixed point tachymeters of expression installation Collision Number, R indicate that the combination radius of multiple fixed point tachymeters is the link length summation within the scope of D, and I indicates that multiple fixed points test the speed The combination radius of instrument is the intersection quantity within the scope of D, and J indicates that the combination radius of multiple fixed point tachymeters is the road within the scope of D Road turning point quantity, α are constant term, βnA fixed point tachymeter is only mounted with for regression vector coefficient, T=0 expression；
(2) pre- reference point ratio selection and data acquisition:
The sample proportion for choosing pre- reference point and experimental point is 1:1.5~1:30；After determining pre- reference point ratio, investigation Road area radius length L, fatal and Serious conflicts accident quantity FSC are acquired with investigationS, casualties collision accident number PICS、 Link length summation R, intersection quantity I, road turnover points J, per day magnitude of traffic flow V, road Road width W, terrain vehicle Road number N, whether there is or not central partition F data；
(3) determination of reference point:
Sample data collected each in (2) step are brought into the model of building, corresponding comprehensive score situation is calculated, Finally determining reference point score value should be closest to the score value of experimental point；Calculate the difference of pre- reference point Yu experimental point score value Value γi, therefore the γ of final identified reference point and experimental pointiValue meets γi=min | experimental subjects fractional value-is in advance referring to right As value | }；
(4) traffic accident quantity surveying:
Investigation initial time is the uninstalled time t of multiple tachymeters0, accident number within the scope of experimental point zone radius Measure H0t, accident quantity H within the scope of reference point zone radius0c；Multiple tachymeters, which have been installed, implements time t1, experimental point region Actual accidents quantity in radius is H1t, the accident quantity within the scope of reference point zone radius is H1c；
(5) judge impact effect:
It has been installed in multiple tachymeters and has implemented time t1When, it is assumed that Experimental Area is only mounted with a fixed point tachymeter institute The traffic accident quantity of generation is H'1t, then through street installs multiple fixed point tachymeters to the impact effect of accident quantity are as follows:
Hdid=(H1t-H1c)-(H'1t-H1c)=(H1t-H0c)-(H0t-H0c)
Illustrate the present invention with specific embodiment below.
1) Object Selection: the sample proportion for choosing experimental point and reference point is 1:10, and wherein sample for reference is marked as b2、b3、 b4、b5、b6、b7、b8、b9、b10、b11, experimental point sample is b1。
2) variable data acquires: being investigated by accurate investigation method and relevant departments, obtains each experimental point and ginseng According to point related data as shown in table 1-1.
Table 1-1 sample data acquires statistical form
Sample number L FSCS PICS V R I J W N F
b1 L1 n1 k1 V1 R1 I1 J1 W1 N1 1
b2 L2 n2 k2 V2 R2 I2 J2 W2 N2 1
b3 L3 n3 k3 V3 R3 I3 J3 W3 N3 0
b4 L4 n4 k4 V4 R4 I4 J4 W4 N4 0
b5 L5 n5 k5 V5 R5 I5 J5 W5 N5 0
b6 L6 n6 k6 V6 R6 I6 J6 W6 N6 1
b7 L7 n7 k7 V7 R7 I7 J7 W7 N7 1
b8 L8 n8 k8 V8 R8 I8 J8 W8 N8 0
b9 L9 n9 k9 V9 R9 I9 J9 W9 N9 0
b10 L10 n10 k10 V10 R10 I10 J10 W10 N10 1
b11 L11 n11 k11 V11 R11 I11 J11 W11 N11 1
3) fractional value calculates: the data acquired in the 2) step are brought into respectively in the logit model of building, obtain each group Corresponding scoring event, experimental subjects fractional value are a1, the fractional value of reference object is respectively a2、a3、a4、a5、a6、a7、a8、a9、 a10、a11, with experimental group a1For calculating process it is as follows, the similarly corresponding calculated value a of reference group finally2、a3、a4、a5、 a6、a7、a8、a9、a10、a11。
4) reference object determines: the 3) experimental point score value calculated and pre- reference object score value carry out difference in step Analysis, the γ of reference point and experimental pointiValue meets γi=min | experimental subjects fractional value-pre- reference object value | }, each group reference It is as shown in the table to be worth calculated result.
Table 1-2 reference point calculated result statistical form
By comparing calculation value as a result, the shortest reference point of selected distance is final reference point, this case verification is assumed It carries out under ideal conditions, and γ2=min | experimental subjects fractional value-pre- reference object value | }, therefore final reference object determines For b2。
5) the accident quantity q of the experimental point before multiple tachymeters are not installed and reference point is investigated respectively0、u0；Multiple high speeds The corresponding accident quantity q of the two after video camera is respectively mounted1、u1, as shown in the table., D is between 200-1000 meters.
Table 1-3 accident quantity statistics table
Object Before multiple tachymeters are not installed After multiple tachymeters have been installed
Radius is the region of D around reference point q0 q1
Radius is the region of D around experimental point u0 u1
6) by the above-mentioned experimental procedure of this patent it is found that institute following to accident impact effect after the installation of multiple tachymeters Show:
Hdid=(u1-q1)-(u0-q0)
Although the present invention is illustrated and has been described with regard to preferred embodiment, it is understood by those skilled in the art that Without departing from scope defined by the claims of the present invention, variations and modifications can be carried out to the present invention.

Claims (3)

1. a kind of method that the combination for determining the multiple tachymeters of through street influences traffic accident quantity, which is characterized in that packet Include following steps:
(1) score model selection and parameter calibration:
Taking logit model is primary standard model, introduces variable and carries out constructing new fractional value model, comprehensive by calculating Divide situation the determining reference point to experimental point with similar variation tendency:
In formula: CFSCFatal at least 3 years and Serious conflicts accident quantity before multiple fixed point tachymeters, C are installed in expressionPICIt indicates Casualties Collision Number at least 3 years is installed before multiple fixed point tachymeters, introducing variables D indicates the research area of fixed point tachymeter Domain radius, R indicate that the combinations of multiple fixed point tachymeters in radius are the link length summation within the scope of D, and I indicates the surveys of multiple fixed points The combination radius of fast instrument is the intersection quantity within the scope of D, and J indicates that the combination radius of multiple fixed point tachymeters is within the scope of D Road turning point quantity, α are constant term, βnA fixed point tachymeter is only mounted with for regression vector coefficient, T=0 expression；
(2) pre- reference point ratio selection and data acquisition:
The sample proportion for choosing pre- reference point and experimental point is 1:1.5~1:30；After determining pre- reference point ratio, investigation and tune Look into acquisition road area radius length L, fatal and Serious conflicts accident quantity FSCS, casualties collision accident number PICS, road Length summation R, intersection quantity I, road turnover points J, per day magnitude of traffic flow V, road Road width W, road track number N, whether there is or not central partition F data；
(3) determination of reference point:
Sample data collected each in (2) step are brought into the model constructed in step (1), corresponding comprehensive score is calculated Situation, finally determining reference point score value should be closest to the score value of experimental point；Calculate pre- reference point and experimental point score The difference γ of valuei, therefore the γ of final identified reference point and experimental pointiValue meets:
γi=min | experimental subjects fractional value-pre- reference object value | }；
(4) traffic accident quantity surveying:
Investigation initial time is the uninstalled time t of multiple tachymeters0, accident quantity within the scope of experimental point zone radius H0t, accident quantity H within the scope of reference point zone radius0c；Multiple tachymeters, which have been installed, implements time t1, experimental point region half Actual accidents quantity within the scope of diameter is H1t, the accident quantity within the scope of reference point zone radius is H1c；
(5) judge impact effect:
It has been installed in multiple tachymeters and has implemented time t1When, it is assumed that Experimental Area is only mounted with that a fixed point tachymeter is occurred Traffic accident quantity be H'1t, then through street installs multiple fixed point tachymeters to the impact effect of accident quantity are as follows:
Hdid=(H1t-H1c)-(H'1t-H1c)=(H1t-H0c)-(H0t-H0c)。
2. the method that the combination of the multiple tachymeters of through street influences traffic accident quantity is determined as described in claim 1, It is characterized in that, the sample proportion in step (2) is determined as 1:10.
3. the method that the combination of the multiple tachymeters of through street influences traffic accident quantity is determined as described in claim 1, It is characterized in that, the D in step (1) is between 200-1000 meters.
CN201910591810.1A 2019-07-01 2019-07-01 Determine that the multiple tachymeters of through street combine the method influenced on traffic accident quantity Pending CN110390815A (en)

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CN111984924A (en) * 2020-07-07 2020-11-24 东南大学 Method for evaluating influence of public bicycle leasing policy on regional bicycle safety
CN112509336A (en) * 2020-11-20 2021-03-16 公安部交通管理科学研究所 Method for analyzing deterrence range of single-point speed measuring equipment on highway

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CN112509336B (en) * 2020-11-20 2022-03-25 公安部交通管理科学研究所 Method for analyzing deterrence range of single-point speed measuring equipment on highway

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