CN110348074A - The method and device of climate change risk partition - Google Patents
The method and device of climate change risk partition Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of methods of climate change risk partition, comprising: is based on historical climate data, history socioeconomic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index, determines Climatic and socioeconomic variable；According to the Climatic and socioeconomic variable, top-down regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather loss model from bottom to top are constructed respectively；According to the regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather loss model, comprehensive climate change economic loss is determined.The present invention has coupled economic model and physical model, it is modeled based on historical data, based on Future Climate Change data, assess climate change bring social economy risk, climate change influence caused by social economic system is quantified, has obtained caused by climate change with probabilistic loss and gain.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the quantization field of climate change more particularly to a kind of methods of climate change risk partition
And device.
Background technique
Climate change brings great risk to the earth for the survival of mankind, due to a large amount of discharges of greenhouse gases,
Global seismic constant temperature increases, and arctic regions Melting Glacierss lead to that sea level rise, climate change make Global vertical datum by
To influence, under the collective effect of these factors, global extreme weather events occurrence frequency is increased, destructive power enhancing.Meanwhile gas
The problem of variation exacerbates the fields such as agricultural, water resource, the energy, ecological environment, health is waited, natural system is caused serious
It destroys, huge economic loss and casualties is caused to human socioeconomic system.
It is most important to quantify climate change bring risk, it is quantitative that this will make people possess climate change bring risk
Understanding, allow people clear reduce greenhouse gas emission brought by income and cost relationship, it will help policymaker formulate
Reasonable Policies on Climate ensures the sustainable development of human society.It is assessment climate change to social system bring risk, people
Construct climate change loss function, and different loss functions are combined to form a risk evaluating system.Loss function master
Be divided into two classes: it is a kind of by Climatic (temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration, sea level etc.) and quantity of goods produced (crop yield, population,
Flood land area etc.) it is associated, reacting directly in kind caused by climate change influences.It is another kind of by Climatic (temperature, drop
Water, CO2 concentration, sea level etc.) it is associated with economic welfare variable (GDP, GDP growth rate etc.), it can reflect climate change
The influence monetized to economic bring.Weather loss function not only integrates climate change in quantization and brings difference to social system
Play a significant role when risk, also takes on the important duty of relationship between coordinated balance reduction of greenhouse gas discharge cost and emission reduction income
Appoint.Climate change risk partition method is a kind of based on the scientific theories such as physics, statistics, mathematical economics construction
A series of weather loss functions out, and these functions are subjected to classification coupling according to certain classification standard and are formed with different spies
The climatic risk submodule of sign carries out the quantization of comprehensive analysis by each submodule to climate change risk with different view
The method of assessment.It will be helpful to Chinese government's grasp more fully Climatic risk when participating in global climate and negotiating using this method
Information.
Quantify and summarizes Climatic risk with certain difficulty, for example: when quantization climate change bring physical influence, structure
The natural mechanism being related to when making physical model is considerably complicated, and the influence factor that is related to is numerous when constructing economic model, it is complicated from
So and social system there is many uncertain, climate changes in coupling interaction that social economic system, there is lag shadows
To climate change fact there is heterogeneity between loud and region, these factors all make us in assessment climate change risk
When be faced with huge challenge.
Summary of the invention
(1) technical problems to be solved
It is above-mentioned to solve the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of method and device of climate change risk partition
At least one of technical problem.
(2) technical solution
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of methods of climate change risk partition, comprising:
Based on historical climate data, history socioeconomic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index, Climatic is determined
And socioeconomic variable；
According to the Climatic and socioeconomic variable, top-down regional economy loss model, member are constructed respectively
Analyze loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather loss model from bottom to top；
It is damaged according to the regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather
Model is lost, determines comprehensive climate change economic loss.
In some embodiments of the invention, historical climate data, history socioeconomic data and quantifiable gas are based on
Time policy index, determines Climatic and socioeconomic variable, comprising steps of
According to historical climate data, Climatic is determined；
According to history socioeconomic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index, socioeconomic variable is determined.
In some embodiments of the invention, according to the Climatic and socioeconomic variable, construct respectively from upper and
Under regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model and from bottom to top department's weather loss
Model, comprising steps of
Based on Climatic and socioeconomic data, econometric model is constructed；
Based on Climatic, socioeconomic variable, the econometric model and earth system mode, determine to macroscopical portion
The same wall effect and hysteresis effect of door economic growth, construct top-down regional economy loss model；
Based on what is influenced about climate change on economic output in global more climate change risk evaluating system databases
Assess data, carry out real-time dynamic meta analysis, building can dynamic real-time update subsector's meta analysis loss model；
According to physical model, the econometric model and the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Disaster Assessment, building
Extreme casualty loss model；
Based on the small scale of department and national large scale macroeconomic data and climatic data, the econometric model,
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, physical model construct department's weather loss model from bottom to top.
In some embodiments of the invention, the regional economy loss model include global macroeconomy loss model,
Global subregion model of economic loss and Chinese Provincial scale model of economic loss；
The meta analysis loss model includes the first agricultural losses model, crime model of economic loss, lost work mould
Type, health impact model and the first energy-consuming loss model；
The extreme casualty loss model includes arid loss model, flood losses model, storm loss model, heat wave damage
Lose model, cold wave loss model and seashore infrastructure loss model；
Department's weather loss model include the second agricultural losses model, forestry loss model, water resource loss model,
Second energy-consuming loss model, Ecological Loss model, health disease loss model and the first extreme casualty loss model.
In some embodiments of the invention, according to the regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme calamity
Evil loss model and department's weather loss model determine comprehensive climate change economic loss, comprising steps of
Based on the regional economy loss model, its corresponding first climate change economic loss is determined；
Based on econometric model and earth system mode, respectively to department's loss model, extreme casualty loss mould
Type and department's weather loss model construct corresponding adaptability model；
Based on Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, according to the adaptability model, determine that the adaptability model respectively corresponds
The second climate change economic loss；
Wherein, the comprehensive climate change economic loss includes that the first climate change economic loss and the second climate change pass through
Ji loss.
In some embodiments of the invention, it is based on Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, according to the adaptability model, is determined
The corresponding second climate change economic loss of the adaptability model, comprising steps of
According to the adaptability model, determines part climate change economic loss and the quantity of goods produced after climatic adaptation is damaged
It loses；
Lost according to economic loss and the quantity of goods produced, and merge historical climate delta data, history socioeconomic data,
The analysis of quantifiable Policies on Climate index, the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and large-scale weather catastrophic event probability of happening,
Determine that the quantity of goods produced loses corresponding incomplete climate change economic loss；
Wherein, the quantity of goods produced loss includes agricultural losses, forestry loss, water resource loss, energy-consuming loss and life
Object loss, the economic loss include capital loss, investment loss, savings loss, lost work and technological progress loss,
The second climate change economic loss includes the incomplete climate change economic loss and the part climate change economy
Loss.
In some embodiments of the invention, the adaptability model includes:
Meta analysis adaptability teaching model for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world social economic system to weather
Change the adaptation having an impact；By every result of study synthesis by the whole world about climatic adaptation, real-time dynamic is carried out again more
The new meta analysis adaptability teaching model；
Extreme disaster adaptability teaching model, for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world, social economic system pair
Weather extreme event causes the adaptation of economic loss；
Subsector's climate adaptability evaluation module, for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world, social economic system
The adaptation that climate change is impacted to each department.
In some embodiments of the invention, it is based on climatic data, socioeconomic data, physical model and economic model,
Extreme casualty loss model is constructed, comprising steps of
According to Climatic, socioeconomic variable, physical model and economic model, determine that historical disaster occurs strong respectively
Degree, each department are exposed to fragility under certain type disaster, the data set of the geographical space in region and regionalism, specific
Under the conditions of the following disaster place, frequency and intensity and the disaster that occur loss is simulated caused by specific region；Wherein, institute
Stating physical model includes Earth climate system model, crops model, hydrological model, hurricane model, flood model, arid mould
Type, atmospheric pollutant diffusion model, the economic model include econometric model, Optimum Economic model of growth, land use
Model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model；
According to the intensity, fragility, data set and simulation loss, the extreme casualty loss model is constructed.
In some embodiments of the invention, the form of the comprehensive climate change economic loss includes the probability of penalty values
The probability value of distribution map, the probability-distribution function of penalty values and each penalty values.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a kind of devices of climate change risk partition, comprising:
Memory is stored with executable instruction；
Processor, for executing climate change risk analysis above-mentioned according to the executable instruction in the memory and commenting
The method estimated.
(3) beneficial effect
The method and device of climate change risk partition of the invention, compared to the prior art, at least have with
Lower advantage:
1, it is based on econometric model, statistical model, atmospheric physics model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, by using
Historical climate delta data, Future Climate Change data, history socioeconomic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index carry out
Adaptive modelling, it is determined that a final mask, it can be according to climate change data to be measured, socioeconomic data to be measured, weather to be measured
Policy data carries out the deterministic parsing and/or analysis of uncertainty of weather loss, determines probabilistic weather loss/income,
It ensure that the accuracy and universality of analysis and assessment result.
2, the present invention is based on theoretical mechanisms and positive research to be modeled, and modeling process is diversified and has science, makes
It must analyze more accurate with assessment result.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the step schematic diagram of the method for the climate change risk partition of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the overall flow figure of Fig. 1；
Fig. 3 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S1 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 4 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S2 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 5 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S3 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 6 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S33 in Fig. 5.
Specific embodiment
The present invention provides a kind of method and devices of climate change risk partition, are based on economic model, physics
Model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (analysis of uncertainty), to historical climate delta data, history socioeconomic data and go through
History Policies on Climate data carry out adaptive modelling, it is determined that a final mask, it can be according to climate change data to be measured, society to be measured
Economic data, Policies on Climate data to be measured determine the loss of probabilistic weather, ensure that analysis and assessment result accuracy and
Universality.
To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with specific embodiment, and reference
Attached drawing, the present invention is described in more detail.
The one side of the embodiment of the present invention, provides a kind of method of climate change risk partition, and Fig. 1 is this hair
The step schematic diagram of the method for the climate change risk partition of bright embodiment, as shown in Figure 1, the method comprising the steps of S1
~S3 is below just described in detail each step in conjunction with attached drawing.
Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 (i.e. the overall flow figure of Fig. 1) are please referred to, in step sl, is based on historical climate data, history society
Meeting economic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index, determine Climatic and socioeconomic variable.
Wherein, since Climatic is related to historical climate data, socioeconomic variable and history socioeconomic data and
Quantifiable Policies on Climate index is related, and Fig. 3 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S1 in Fig. 1, as shown in figure 3, therefore step S1
Including following sub-step:
S11, according to historical climate data, determine Climatic；
S12, according to history socioeconomic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index, determine socioeconomic variable.
In step s 2, according to the Climatic and socioeconomic variable, top-down regional economy is constructed respectively
Loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather loss model from bottom to top.
Specifically, Fig. 4 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S2 in Fig. 1, as shown in figure 4, step S2 includes following sub-step
S21~S25.
S21, according to historical climate data, determine Climatic；
S22, it is based on Climatic, socioeconomic variable, the econometric model and earth system mode, determined to macro
The same wall effect and hysteresis effect that sectional increases are seen, constructs top-down regional economy loss model, wherein the area
Domain model of economic loss includes global macroeconomy loss model, global subregion model of economic loss and Chinese Provincial scale warp
Help loss model；
S23, the existing research database based on global more climate change risk evaluating systems, with regard to Climatic to economy
The assessment data of the influence of output carry out real-time dynamic meta analysis, building can subsector's meta analysis of dynamic real-time update lose mould
Type, wherein it is described can subsector's meta analysis loss model of dynamic real-time update include that the first agricultural losses model, crime are economical
Loss model, lost work model, health impact model and the first energy-consuming loss model；
S24, according to the physical model for Disaster Assessment and the econometric model, general equilibrium can be calculated, constructed
Extreme casualty loss model；
And step S24 specifically includes following sub-step:
S241, according to Climatic, socioeconomic variable, physical model and economic model, respectively determine historical disaster hair
Raw intensity, each department be exposed to fragility under certain type disaster, the geographical space in region and regionalism data set,
Place, frequency and intensity and the disaster that the following disaster occurs under given conditions simulate loss caused by specific region；Its
In, the physical model includes Earth climate system model, crops model, hydrological model, hurricane model, flood model, does
Non-irrigated model, atmospheric pollutant diffusion model, the economic model include econometric model, Optimum Economic model of growth, soil
Utilize model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model；
S242, it is lost according to the intensity, fragility, data set and simulation, constructs the extreme casualty loss mould
Type, wherein the extreme casualty loss model includes arid loss model, flood losses model, storm loss model, heat wave damage
Lose model, cold wave loss model and seashore infrastructure loss model.
S25, the small scale of department and national large scale macroeconomic data and climatic data, the Econometric are based on
Model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, physical model construct department's weather loss model from bottom to top.Wherein, the department
Weather loss model includes the second agricultural losses model, forestry loss model, water resource loss model, the loss of the second energy-consuming
Model, Ecological Loss model, health disease loss model and the first extreme casualty loss model.
It should be noted that the first agricultural losses model and the second agricultural losses model, the first energy-consuming loss model
With the second energy-consuming loss model, extreme casualty loss model and the first extreme casualty loss model, due to these model bases
In variable and building model it is different, therefore these models are also different.
Wherein, the regional economy loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather loss model are based on metering
Economic model and weather model construction, meta analysis loss model is constructed based on element method.
Determining regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model and the loss of department's weather
After model, it is also necessary to follow the steps below S3: according to the regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme calamity
Evil loss model and department's weather loss model determine comprehensive climate change economic loss.
Fig. 5 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S3 in Fig. 1, as shown in figure 5, step S3 includes following sub-step:
S31, it is based on the regional economy loss model, determines its corresponding first climate change economic loss；
S32, it is based on econometric model and earth system mode, department's loss model, extreme disaster is damaged respectively
It loses model and department's weather loss model constructs corresponding adaptability model.
Wherein, adaptability model includes:
Meta analysis adaptability teaching model for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world social economic system to weather
Change the adaptation having an impact (quantity of goods produced (amount of money) loss caused by before not adapting to occur and subtracts the reality after generating adaptation
Object amount (amount of money) loss)；By the way that the whole world is comprehensive about every result of study of climatic adaptation, dynamic is analyzed again in real time for progress
Construct new adaptability model；
Extreme disaster adaptability teaching model, for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world, social economic system pair
Weather extreme event causes the adaptation of economic loss (quantity of goods produced (amount of money) loss caused by before not adapting to occur and subtracts production
Quantity of goods produced (amount of money) loss after raw adaptation)；
Subsector's climate adaptability evaluation module, for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world, social economic system
(generation does not occur for the adaptation impacted to climate change to each department's (agricultural, forestry, water resource, energy resource system, health etc.)
Quantity of goods produced caused by before adaptation (amount of money) loss subtracts quantity of goods produced (amount of money) loss after generating adaptation).
S33, it is based on Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, according to the adaptability model, determines the adaptability model difference
Corresponding second climate change economic loss；Wherein, the comprehensive climate change economic loss includes the first climate change economy
Loss and the second climate change economic loss.
Fig. 6 is the sub-step schematic diagram of step S33 in Fig. 5, please refers to Fig. 6, step S33 specifically includes sub-step:
S331, according to the adaptability model, determine part climate change economic loss and to the reality after climatic adaptation
Object amount loss；
S332, it is lost according to economic loss and the quantity of goods produced, and merges historical climate delta data, history social economy
Data, quantifiable Policies on Climate achievement data, the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and large-scale weather catastrophic event occur general
The analysis of rate determines that the quantity of goods produced loses corresponding incomplete climate change economic loss；
Wherein, the quantity of goods produced loss includes agricultural losses, forestry loss, water resource loss, energy-consuming loss and life
Object loss, the economic loss include the progress loss of capital loss, investment loss, savings loss, lost work and technology,
The second climate change economic loss includes the incomplete climate change economic loss and the part climate change economy
Loss.
It should be noted that analysis method includes deterministic parsing and analysis of uncertainty, when analysis method is to determine
Property analysis when, the form of comprehensive climate change economic loss is the probability value of each penalty values；When analysis method is Uncertainity Analysis
When, the form of comprehensive climate change economic loss is the probability distribution graph of penalty values and the probability-distribution function of penalty values.
The another aspect of the embodiment of the present invention additionally provides a kind of device of climate change risk partition, comprising:
Memory is stored with executable instruction；Processor, for executing weather above-mentioned according to the executable instruction in the memory
Change the method for risk partition.
To sum up, the method and device of climate change risk partition of the invention is based on economic model, physics mould
Type, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, to historical climate delta data, history socioeconomic data and historical climate policy data into
Row adaptive modelling and analysis have coupled economic model and physical model, assess climate change bring social economy risk,
Climate change influence caused by social economic system has been determined, has obtained with probabilistic loss and gain.
It unless there are known entitled phase otherwise anticipates, the numerical parameter in this specification and appended claims is approximation, energy
Characteristic changing needed for the content of enough bases through the invention is resulting.Specifically, all be used in specification and claim
The middle content for indicating composition, the number of reaction condition etc., it is thus understood that repaired by the term of " about " in all situations
Decorations.Under normal circumstances, the meaning expressed refers to include by specific quantity ± 10% variation in some embodiments, some
± 5% variation in embodiment, ± 1% variation in some embodiments, in some embodiments ± 0.5% variation.
Furthermore "comprising" does not exclude the presence of element or step not listed in the claims." one " located in front of the element
Or "one" does not exclude the presence of multiple such elements.
The word of ordinal number such as " first ", " second ", " third " etc. used in specification and claim, with modification
Corresponding element, itself is not meant to that the element has any ordinal number, does not also represent the suitable of a certain element and another element
Sequence in sequence or manufacturing method, the use of those ordinal numbers are only used to enable an element and another tool with certain name
Clear differentiation can be made by having the element of identical name.
Particular embodiments described above has carried out further in detail the purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and beneficial effects
It describes in detail bright, it should be understood that the above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to restrict the invention, it is all
Within the spirit and principles in the present invention, any modification, equivalent substitution, improvement and etc. done should be included in guarantor of the invention
Within the scope of shield.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of method of climate change risk partition, comprising:
Based on historical climate data, history socioeconomic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index, Climatic and society are determined
It can economic variable；
According to the Climatic and socioeconomic variable, top-down regional economy loss model, meta analysis are constructed respectively
Loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather loss model from bottom to top；
Mould is lost according to the regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model and department's weather
Type determines comprehensive climate change economic loss.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, wherein, based on historical climate data, history socioeconomic data and can quantify
Policies on Climate index, determine Climatic and socioeconomic variable, comprising steps of
According to historical climate data, Climatic is determined；
According to history socioeconomic data and quantifiable Policies on Climate index, socioeconomic variable is determined.
3. according to the method described in claim 2, wherein, according to the Climatic and socioeconomic variable, constructing respectively certainly
Regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, extreme casualty loss model under above and department's weather from bottom to top
Loss model, comprising steps of
Based on Climatic and socioeconomic data, econometric model is constructed；
Based on Climatic, socioeconomic variable, the econometric model and earth system mode, determines and macroscopical department is passed through
The same wall effect and hysteresis effect that Ji increases, construct top-down regional economy loss model；
Based on the assessment influenced about climate change on economic output in global more climate change risk evaluating system databases
Data, carry out real-time dynamic meta analysis, building can dynamic real-time update subsector's meta analysis loss model；
According to physical model, the econometric model and the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Disaster Assessment, building is extreme
Casualty loss model；
By the small scale of department and national large scale macroeconomic data and climatic data, the econometric model, can based on
General equilibrium model, physical model are calculated, department's weather loss model from bottom to top is constructed.
4. according to the method described in claim 3, wherein:
The regional economy loss model includes global macroeconomy loss model, global subregion model of economic loss and China
Excellent layout model of economic loss；
The meta analysis loss model includes the first agricultural losses model, crime model of economic loss, lost work model, is good for
Health loss model and the first energy-consuming loss model；
The extreme casualty loss model includes arid loss model, flood losses model, storm loss model, heat wave loss mould
Type, cold wave loss model and seashore infrastructure loss model；
Department's weather loss model includes the second agricultural losses model, forestry loss model, water resource loss model, second
Energy-consuming loss model, Ecological Loss model, health disease loss model and the first extreme casualty loss model.
5. according to the method described in claim 3, wherein, according to the regional economy loss model, meta analysis loss model, pole
Casualty loss model and department's weather loss model are held, determines comprehensive climate change economic loss, comprising steps of
Based on the regional economy loss model, its corresponding first climate change economic loss is determined；
Based on econometric model and earth system mode, respectively to department's loss model, extreme casualty loss model and
Department's weather loss model constructs corresponding adaptability model；
The adaptability model corresponding is determined according to the adaptability model based on Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
Two climate change economic losses；
Wherein, the comprehensive climate change economic loss includes that the first climate change economic loss and the second climate change economy are damaged
It loses.
6. be based on Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model according to the method described in claim 5, wherein, according to the adaptability model,
Determine the corresponding second climate change economic loss of the adaptability model, comprising steps of
According to the adaptability model, determines part climate change economic loss and the quantity of goods produced after climatic adaptation is lost；
It is lost according to economic loss and the quantity of goods produced, and merges historical climate delta data, history socioeconomic data, can measure
The analysis of the Policies on Climate index of change, the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and large-scale weather catastrophic event probability of happening, determines
The quantity of goods produced loses corresponding incomplete climate change economic loss；
Wherein, the quantity of goods produced loss includes agricultural losses, forestry loss, water resource loss, energy-consuming loss and biology damage
Lose, the economic loss include capital loss, investment loss, savings loss, lost work and technological progress loss, it is described
Second climate change economic loss includes the incomplete climate change economic loss and the part climate change economic loss.
7. method according to claim 5 or 6, wherein the adaptability model includes:
Meta analysis adaptability teaching model for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world social economic system to climate change
The adaptation having an impact；By the way that the whole world is comprehensive about every result of study of climatic adaptation, dynamic updates institute again in real time for progress
State meta analysis adaptability teaching model；
Extreme disaster adaptability teaching model, for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world, social economic system is to weather
Extreme event causes the adaptation of economic loss；
Subsector's climate adaptability evaluation module, for quantitative evaluation in each regional level in the whole world, social economic system is to gas
Wait the adaptation that variation is impacted to each department.
8. according to the method described in claim 1, wherein, being based on climatic data, socioeconomic data, physical model and economic mould
Type constructs extreme casualty loss model, comprising steps of
According to Climatic, socioeconomic variable, physical model and economic model, respectively determine historical disaster occur intensity,
Each department are exposed to fragility under certain type disaster, the data set of the geographical space in region and regionalism, in specific item
Place, frequency and intensity and the disaster that the following disaster occurs under part simulate loss caused by specific region；Wherein, described
Physical model include Earth climate system model, crops model, hydrological model, hurricane model, flood model, Drought Model,
Atmospheric pollutant diffusion model, the economic model include econometric model, Optimum Economic model of growth, land use mould
Type, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model；
According to the intensity, fragility, data set and simulation loss, the extreme casualty loss model is constructed.
9. according to the method described in claim 1, wherein, the form of the comprehensive climate change economic loss includes penalty values
The probability value of probability distribution graph, the probability-distribution function of penalty values and each penalty values.
10. a kind of device of climate change risk partition, comprising:
Memory is stored with executable instruction；
Processor, for executing the weather as described in any in claim 1 to 9 according to the executable instruction in the memory
Change the method for risk partition.
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| CN111027175A (en) * | 2019-11-06 | 2020-04-17 | 中国地质大学（武汉） | Method for evaluating social and economic influences of flood based on coupling model integrated simulation |
| CN111209682A (en) * | 2020-01-14 | 2020-05-29 | 上海应用技术大学 | Method for processing global climate change phenomenon data |
| WO2022165612A1 (en) * | 2021-02-08 | 2022-08-11 | Riskthinking.Ai Inc. | Systems and methods for computer models for climate financial risk measurement |
| CN116522764A (en) * | 2023-04-17 | 2023-08-01 | 华中科技大学 | Hot wave-flood composite disaster assessment method considering influence of climate change |
| CN117575836A (en) * | 2024-01-17 | 2024-02-20 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop growth suitability evaluation method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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| CN111027175A (en) * | 2019-11-06 | 2020-04-17 | 中国地质大学（武汉） | Method for evaluating social and economic influences of flood based on coupling model integrated simulation |
| CN111209682A (en) * | 2020-01-14 | 2020-05-29 | 上海应用技术大学 | Method for processing global climate change phenomenon data |
| CN111209682B (en) * | 2020-01-14 | 2023-03-28 | 上海应用技术大学 | Method for processing global climate change phenomenon data |
| WO2022165612A1 (en) * | 2021-02-08 | 2022-08-11 | Riskthinking.Ai Inc. | Systems and methods for computer models for climate financial risk measurement |
| GB2618945A (en) * | 2021-02-08 | 2023-11-22 | Riskthinking Ai Inc | Systems and methods for computer models for climate financial risk measurement |
| CN116522764A (en) * | 2023-04-17 | 2023-08-01 | 华中科技大学 | Hot wave-flood composite disaster assessment method considering influence of climate change |
| CN116522764B (en) * | 2023-04-17 | 2023-12-19 | 华中科技大学 | Hot wave-flood composite disaster assessment method considering influence of climate change |
| CN117575836A (en) * | 2024-01-17 | 2024-02-20 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop growth suitability evaluation method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN117575836B (en) * | 2024-01-17 | 2024-04-19 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop growth suitability evaluation method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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