CN110298489A - A kind of risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster - Google Patents
A kind of risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to Tunnel Engineering technical fields, disclose the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of a kind of serious deformation disaster, include the following steps: S1: carrying out the quantization risk analysis of constructing tunnel phase large deformation disaster, obtain risk analysis as a result, i.e. various supporting measures different large deformation earthquake intensitys effect under serious deformation casualty loss cumulative distribution；S2: according to risk analysis as a result, carrying out supporting Analysis of Policy Making using decision tree analysis method, the supporting decision scheme in work progress is obtained；The present invention solves the problems, such as of the existing technology to set up a set of be able to reflect and reflect the Consequential Loss quantitative model of Practical Project situation and lead to the prior art there are limitation and could not rationally carry out the dynamic decision of supporting scheme for the risk of serious deformation disaster causes the prior art to lack practicability.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Tunnel Engineering technical fields, and in particular to a kind of risk quantification and supporting of serious deformation disaster
Decision-making technique.
Background technique
As Tunnel Engineering develops to Deep-buried Long And Big direction, engineering project disaster problem is increasingly prominent.It is especially multiple in geological environment
Miscellaneous western mountainous areas, when unfavorable geologies groups such as Tunnel Passing high-ground stress, soft rock (such as phyllite, mud stone), fault belts
When closing section, significantly plastic deformation will lead to supporting destruction caused by country rock, and construction delay brings massive losses.In view of tunnel
The geological conditions and work progress of road engineering all have a significant uncertainty, how the wind of reasonable forecast assessment large deformation
Danger becomes the key for guaranteeing that tunnel safety is constructed to effectively be managed and prevention and control.
Currently, research is more in terms of to the genesis mechanism of large deformation and prediction theory, and the assessment of large deformation calamity source with
The researchs such as prevention and control are still in exploration developing stage, rest essentially within qualitative, the sxemiquantitative stage.How large deformation cause calamity condition,
It on the basis of pregnant calamity Environmental Studies, proposes reliably, steadily and surely, accurate quantitative model realizes the conjunction of serious deformation calamity source
Reason assessment needs further to be furtherd investigate.Also, most risk assessment often rests on design period, however the construction stage pair
Tunnel carries out the mountain tunnel that reasonable risk analysis is very necessary, constructs particularly with New Austrian Tunneling Method (NATM).As construction is continuous
Excavation disclose, can not only make up the deficiency in prospective design stage early period, and can be further the prediction of disaster, comment
Estimate and provide necessary country rock response message, support action information etc. with control, for the dynamic evaluation and engineering for realizing calamity source
Decision provides effective support.
Problems and disadvantages of the existing technology:
Researchers at home and abroad are for the genesis mechanism of serious deformation disaster, the qualitative of tunnel totality construction risk and half
A large amount of research work has been done in quantitative study, the quantitative research of normal risk, is also taken in terms of the forecasting research of large deformation disaster
Obtained many achievements.But be directed to tunnel under construction Information Construction feature, the research that mobilism of giving prominence to the key points, quantification obtain at
Fruit report is less, this is also that current risk evaluation result is difficult to the main reason for instructing Practical Project, and it is specific that presently, there are problems
Including the following aspects:
(1) there are no the quantization risk systems for serious deformation disaster " small probability, big to lose " risk case, at present
Assessment only reside within the qualitative or sxemiquantitative stage；Could not still set up a set of be able to reflect reflects Practical Project situation at present
Consequential Loss quantitative model, there are limitations for the prior art；
(2) dynamic decision that supporting scheme could not be also rationally carried out for the risk of serious deformation disaster, thus to reality
Border Tunnel Engineering, which is carried out safely, plays directive significance, and the prior art lacks practicability.
Summary of the invention
In order to solve the above problems existing in the present technology, it is an object of that present invention to provide a kind of serious deformation disasters
Risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of the existing technology could not set up a set of be able to reflect and reflect Practical Project for solving
The Consequential Loss quantitative model of situation causes the prior art there are limitation and the risk that could not be directed to serious deformation disaster
The problem of rationally carrying out the dynamic decision of supporting scheme causes the prior art to lack practicability.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
A kind of risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster, include the following steps:
S1: carrying out constructing tunnel phase large deformation disaster and quantify risk analysis, obtains risk analysis as a result, i.e. various supportings are arranged
Apply the cumulative distribution of the serious deformation casualty loss under different large deformation earthquake intensitys effect；
S2: it according to risk analysis as a result, carrying out supporting Analysis of Policy Making using decision tree analysis method, obtains in work progress
Supporting decision scheme.
Further, step S1 includes the following steps:
S1-1: carry out the quantitative analysis of serious deformation casualty loss, serious deformation casualty loss include economic loss and
Construction delay；
S1-2: according to tunnel surrounding Large Deformation Support principle and historical summary, obtain serious deformation supporting measure and
Its parameter；
S1-3: according to the large deformation casualty loss and supporting measure and its parameter after quantitative analysis, skill is evaluated in application plan
The MCSMCS method of art PERT accounts for the probability analysis of probabilistic large deformation casualty loss, obtains various supportings and arranges
Apply the cumulative distribution of the serious deformation casualty loss under different large deformation earthquake intensitys effect, i.e. risk analysis result.
Further, in step S1-1, the quantitative analysis of economic loss, formula are carried out are as follows:
E=Ere+Eex+E0
In formula, E is economic loss total cost；EexTo dig expense；EreFor supporting expense again；E0For first supporting maintenance cost
With.
Further, in step S1-1, the quantitative analysis of construction delay, formula are carried out are as follows:
T=tre+tex+tdelay
In formula, t is construction delay total time；texTo dig the time；treFor support time again；tdelayIt is rectified to stop work
Time.
Further, comprehensive to propose routine according to tunnel surrounding Large Deformation Support principle and historical summary in step S1-2
The supporting scheme of 5 grades of surrounding rock supporting parameters and 3 kinds of corresponding large deformation earthquake intensity grades obtains 4 kinds and is directed to different large deformation earthquake intensitys
The supporting measure and its parameter of grade；
Large deformation earthquake intensity grade include it is slight, medium and strong, do not consider that there is a situation where large deformation.
Further, in step S1-3, the formula of PERT are as follows:
In formula, EijFor expectation；DijFor variance；μ is time average；M is most likely time；A is the most optimistic time；B is most
Pessimistic time；σ is standard deviation.
Further, the formula at most optimistic time are as follows:
μ -3 σ=a
The formula of most pessimistic time are as follows:
+ 3 σ of μ=b
Further, step S2 includes the following steps:
S2-1: large deformation earthquake intensity is subjected to probabilistic classification；
S2-2: selection is established using decision tree according to the supporting measure of the step S1-2 serious deformation obtained
Model；
S2-3: according to preference pattern and risk analysis as a result, being based on principle of minimization risk, optimization path is selected, is obtained
Take the supporting decision scheme in work progress.
Further, in step S2-1, large deformation earthquake intensity grade includes not occurring, being slight, is medium and strong.
Further, in step S2-2, the formula of decision tree are as follows:
In formula, u (ai) it is selection aiThe utility function value in path, express Tunnel Engineering in different brackets supporting scheme at
Originally it and loses；aiCurrently to select path；pjFor result θjThe probability of appearance；θjFor current path result；I and j respectively refers to
The amount of showing.
The invention has the benefit that
(1) this method passes through the method for programme evaluation and review technique PERT combination Monte Carlo simulation MCS, based on Tunnel Engineering
Uncertainty calculates consequence caused by large deformation disaster, has fully considered price fluctuation, and personnel change, construction effect
Influence of the uncertain factors such as rate to Consequential Loss, improves the accuracy of result；
(2) consequences analysis of large deformation loss is studied at present, current specifications and most researchers also rest on
Qualitative estimation stages, this method propose quantitative calculation method it is easily operated, and can provide quantification as a result, to soft rock tunnel
The account valuation of road engineering is analyzed, and duration risk analysis has biggish practical significance, improves practicability；
(3) probability of happening of this method based on different earthquake intensity large deformation, it is strong in different large deformation to calculate various supporting measures
The cumulative distribution of delay time at stop and economic loss under degree effect are based on principle of minimization risk, pass through decision on this basis
Tree analysis process chooses the supporting scheme optimized, to realize the large deformation risk assessment and supporting decision of quantification, solves
Limitation.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique flow chart of serious deformation disaster；
Fig. 2 is typical normal distribution probability densogram；
Fig. 3 is that expense distribution form figure is digged caused by slight large deformation；
Fig. 4 is decision tree conceptual schematic view；
Fig. 5 is Large Deformation Support decision diagram；
Fig. 6 is the cumulative distribution table of Decision Utility value.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing and specific embodiment does further explaination to the present invention.
Embodiment 1:
As shown in Figure 1, the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of a kind of serious deformation disaster, include the following steps:
S1: carrying out constructing tunnel phase large deformation disaster and quantify risk analysis, obtains risk analysis as a result, i.e. various supportings are arranged
The cumulative distribution for applying the serious deformation casualty loss under different large deformation earthquake intensitys effect carries out constructing tunnel phase large deformation calamity
Evil quantization risk analysis, includes the following steps:
S1-1: carrying out the quantitative analysis of serious deformation casualty loss, and serious deformation casualty loss quantitative analysis avoids
Traditional risk assessment means rest on qualitative stage, the possibility that large deformation occurs for more experiences by expert or constructor
Property, caused loss is estimated, but subjective estimation is often brought between biggish error and different practitioners
It is difficult the problem of reaching common understanding, this method passes through objective, the reproducible modeling process of one kind for studied a question modelling, public affairs
Formula is calculated with the expression formula of quantization, so that the result between different measurement systems is compared to each other, serious deformation
Casualty loss includes economic loss and construction delay, as shown in 1 large deformation casualty loss detailed programs of table:
Table 1
| Economic loss | Construction delay |
| (original) just supporting damage | Accident, which causes to stop work, to be rectified |
| Invading boundary causes to dig | Invading boundary causes to dig |
| Again supporting and other engineering controls | Again supporting |
The quantitative analysis for carrying out economic loss, mainly considers due to significantly squeezing out the analysis of direct economic loss
Deformation there are the destruction of caused first supporting, the later period dig and expense brought by supporting again, formula are as follows:
E=Ere+Eex+E0
In formula, E is economic loss total cost；EexTo dig expense, obtained accordingly according to the earthquake intensity grade of specific large deformation
The side's amount for needing to dig, is calculated further according to the unit price for excavating clear side；EreFor supporting expense again；E0For first supporting maintenance cost
With；
The quantitative analysis for carrying out construction delay obtains accordingly for digging according to the earthquake intensity grade of specific large deformation
The side's amount for needing to dig, can be digged the time further according to the excavation efficiency of construction party accordingly；Secondly, by supportings at different levels
The process of applying is decomposed, and the time required to calculating separately each step, can finally obtain total time；Finally, in current engineering practice
In, usually large scale disasters after the accident, proprietor will do it a degree of shut-down and rectify, to summarize Lessons,
As shown in table 2 downtime table, formula are as follows:
T=tre+tex+tdelay
In formula, t is construction delay total time；texTo dig the time；treFor support time again；tdelayIt is rectified to stop work
Time；
Table 2
| Disaster loss grade | Slight large deformation | Medium large deformation | Strong large deformation |
| Days out of service/d | 2 | 10 | 20 |
S1-2: according to tunnel surrounding Large Deformation Support principle and historical summary, obtain serious deformation supporting measure and
Its parameter；
It is comprehensive to propose conventional 5 grades of surrounding rock supporting parameters and 3 according to tunnel surrounding Large Deformation Support principle and historical summary
The supporting scheme of the corresponding large deformation earthquake intensity grade of kind, obtains 4 kinds of supporting measures and its ginseng for being directed to different large deformation earthquake intensity grades
Number, as 3 Highway Tunnel Wall Rock of table deforms shown in supporting preliminary bracing structure and parameter recommendation；
Large deformation earthquake intensity grade include it is slight, medium and strong, do not consider that there is a situation where large deformation；
Table 3
S1-3: according to the large deformation casualty loss and supporting measure and its parameter after quantitative analysis, the MCS of PERT is used
Method accounts for the probability analysis of probabilistic large deformation casualty loss, obtains various supporting measures in different large deformation
Earthquake intensity effect under serious deformation casualty loss cumulative distribution, i.e., risk analysis as a result, PERT formula are as follows:
In formula, EijFor expectation；DijFor variance；μ is time average；M is most likely time；A is the most optimistic time；B is most
Pessimistic time；σ is standard deviation；Typical normal distribution probability density curve is as shown in Figure 2；
The formula at most optimistic time are as follows:
μ -3 σ=a
The formula of most pessimistic time are as follows:
+ 3 σ of μ=b
Can be obtained by table 1, lose mainly from country rock invade boundary after dig and again caused by supporting, dig and prop up again
Shield is required to time and money, using the MCS method based on PERT by above-mentioned two engineering measures (again supporting and dig) into
Row decomposes, and calculates separately cost and the time required for each sub- measure；
Again the calculating of supporting: once large deformation occurs, will lead to the destruction of former supporting, and need to hole section again into
The supporting measure of row greater degree；If for example, medium large deformation has occurred using conventional supporting, at this point for
The loss of supporting just includes the cost of former conventional supporting and 2 grades of Large Deformation Supports that needs re-start；Therefore supporting damage
The key for losing cost is to calculate the cost of each grade preliminary bracing；
Since Practical Project is inevitably influenced by factors such as market price fluctuations, original needed for preliminary bracing will be constructed
Material unit price be regarded as stochastic variable, using highway engineering preliminary budget specification price as benchmark price, by angular distribution into
Row description, and equivalent normal distribution is finally converted, as shown in 4 tunnel construction cost table of table；
Table 4
As unit of the every linear meter(lin.m.) in tunnel, by estimating the engineering metering of each grade preliminary bracing, finally obtain each
The parameter of grade preliminary bracing cost cumulative distribution；On the other hand, for the simulation for performing required time of above-mentioned preliminary bracing
It is similar with the above method, single project time-consuming is regarded as stochastic variable, finally obtain above-mentioned preliminary bracing performs required time
The cumulative distribution of cost；
The calculating digged: if if the degree that can be squeezed out to country rock is made a prediction, can be combined based on side's amount of extrusion
The excavation efficiency of construction party the time required to digging to calculating, and on the other hand, excavates clear side's unit price in conjunction with each party, can be right
Economic loss caused by digging is calculated；When its key is that country rock squeezes out degree, i.e. large deformation earthquake intensity difference, need to expand
Just measuring for digging is also different；Because large deformation earthquake intensity is a section, based on uncertain consideration, it is assumed that extrusion deformation amount uaClothes
From being uniformly distributed, u can be passed through accordinglyaRelationship with equivalent hole diameter is to expansion amount of excavation VexIt is calculated, formula are as follows:
Vex=R2-(R-ua)2
In formula, VexFor the expansion amount of excavation of every linear meter(lin.m.)；uaFor extrusion deformation amount；R is every linear meter(lin.m.) amount of excavation；
Calculated result see the table below 5 and dig shown in caused economic loss and construction delays distribution parameter table, cumulative distribution shape
Formula is as shown in Figure 3；
Table 5
Note: 1,2 indicates that expand amount of excavation is uniformly distributed with loss obedience is digged, and expands in amount of excavation column and expectation is shown
Value；
S2: it according to risk analysis as a result, carrying out supporting Analysis of Policy Making using decision tree analysis method, obtains in work progress
Supporting decision scheme, include the following steps:
S2-1: large deformation earthquake intensity is subjected to probabilistic classification；
Large deformation earthquake intensity grade includes not occurring, being slight, is medium and strong；
S2-2: selection is established using decision tree according to the supporting measure of the step S1-2 serious deformation obtained
Model；
Decision tree analysis is for analyzing the best decision done based on existing information；Many decisions in underground engineering construction
There is biggish uncertainty, these uncertainties can be presented in the form of structuring decision tree analysis, to carry out decision
Preferably basis is provided；This method is showed with tree-like diagram form, is constructed from left to right, and each branch represents one kind as a result, each
Branch expresses by way of probability, carries out optimal decision-making to the result of each branch by establishing utility function.Decision
Tree establishes the logical expression relationship between selection and result with a kind of very intuitive way；
The construction logic of decision tree originates in rectangular " decision node ", as shown in figure 4, the node shares 3 branches,
Namely 3 selections；It is selection in figure for each selection Dou Youyitiao branch and one circular " result node ",
2 for may result in are as a result, the appearance of above-mentioned each result is equal since decision tree is analyzed based on uncertainty
It is expressed with the form of probability；On this basis, by establishing certain utility function, the value of utility of every branch can be obtained, according to
This just can carry out decision to each selection in above-mentioned " selection node " according to maximum utility or minimum utility principle；
The formula of decision tree are as follows:
In formula, u (ai) it is selection aiThe utility function value in path, express Tunnel Engineering in different brackets supporting scheme at
Originally it and loses；aiCurrently to select path；pjFor result θjThe probability of appearance；θjFor current path result；I and j respectively refers to
The amount of showing；
S2-3: according to preference pattern and risk analysis as a result, being based on principle of minimization risk, optimization path is selected, most
Path optimizing is that the supporting type of loss reduction can be obtained the supporting decision scheme in work progress；
As shown in figure 5, it is worth noting that probability value, penalty values in figure are shown in Table 7 second level Large Deformation Support value of utilities pair
Than shown in table, but these data only serve the effect for illustrating model, any one not corresponding case history；As shown in Figure 5, side
Shape decision node shares 4 kinds of values, that is, has 4 kinds of supporting types for decision, they have corresponded to the Large Deformation Support grade of table 3；
And circular outcome node then have 4 kinds as a result, having respectively corresponded the issuable 4 kinds of earthquake intensity results of large deformation；Triangle chance section
The other value of utility that each support options are shown of point；Its calculation method such as the following table 6 second level Large Deformation Support value of utility computational chart, with
For second level Large Deformation Support；
Table 6
Note: CiIndicate the cost of i-stage supporting；piFor different earthquake intensity large deformation probability of happening；
Table 7
On the other hand, 1 the supporting measure is represented by round chance node in Fig. 5 as the final result of decision, decision section
The value of utility for the final decision result that the other content of point is then shown；As previously mentioned, in order to consider to fully consider price fluctuation etc. because
Plain bring is uncertain, and the cost and cost of each supporting measure are stochastic variable, and therefore, final decision value is equally also one
Stochastic variable, cumulative distribution form are illustrated in fig. 6 shown below.
The present invention is not limited to above-mentioned optional embodiment, anyone can show that other are each under the inspiration of the present invention
The product of kind form.Above-mentioned specific embodiment should not be understood the limitation of pairs of protection scope of the present invention, protection of the invention
Range should be subject to be defined in claims, and specification can be used for interpreting the claims.
Claims (10)
1. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of a kind of serious deformation disaster, characterized by the following steps:
S1: carrying out constructing tunnel phase large deformation disaster and quantify risk analysis, obtains risk analysis as a result, i.e. various supporting measures exist
The cumulative distribution of serious deformation casualty loss under different large deformation earthquake intensity effects；
S2: according to risk analysis as a result, carrying out supporting Analysis of Policy Making using decision tree analysis method, the branch in work progress is obtained
Protect decision scheme.
2. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute
Step S1 is stated to include the following steps:
S1-1: carry out the quantitative analysis of serious deformation casualty loss, the serious deformation casualty loss include economic loss and
Construction delay；
S1-2: according to tunnel surrounding Large Deformation Support principle and historical summary, the supporting measure and its ginseng of serious deformation are obtained
Number；
S1-3: according to the large deformation casualty loss and supporting measure and its parameter after quantitative analysis, using the MCS method of PERT,
The probability analysis for accounting for probabilistic large deformation casualty loss obtains various supporting measures and makees in different large deformation earthquake intensitys
The cumulative distribution of serious deformation casualty loss under, i.e. risk analysis result.
3. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: institute
It states in step S1-1, carries out the quantitative analysis of economic loss, formula are as follows:
E=Ere+Eex+E0
In formula, E is economic loss total cost；EexTo dig expense；EreFor supporting expense again；E0For first supporting maintenance cost.
4. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: institute
It states in step S1-1, carries out the quantitative analysis of construction delay, formula are as follows:
T=tre+tex+tdelay
In formula, t is construction delay total time；texTo dig the time；treFor support time again；tdelayThe time is rectified to stop work.
5. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 4, it is characterised in that: institute
It states in step S1-2, it is comprehensive to propose conventional 5 grades of surrounding rock supporting parameters according to tunnel surrounding Large Deformation Support principle and historical summary
And the supporting scheme of 3 kinds of corresponding large deformation earthquake intensity grades, obtain 4 kinds for different large deformation earthquake intensity grades supporting measure and
Its parameter；
The large deformation earthquake intensity grade include it is slight, medium and strong, do not consider that there is a situation where large deformation.
6. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 5, it is characterised in that: institute
It states in step S1-3, the formula of PERT are as follows:
In formula, EijFor expectation；DijFor variance；μ is time average；M is most likely time；A is the most optimistic time；B is most pessimistic
Time；σ is standard deviation.
7. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 6, it is characterised in that: institute
State the formula at most optimistic time are as follows:
μ -3 σ=a
The formula of the most pessimistic time are as follows:
+ 3 σ of μ=b.
8. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 7, it is characterised in that: institute
Step S2 is stated to include the following steps:
S2-1: large deformation earthquake intensity is subjected to probabilistic classification；
S2-2: selection mould is established using decision tree according to the supporting measure of the step S1-2 serious deformation obtained
Type；
S2-3: according to preference pattern and risk analysis as a result, being based on principle of minimization risk, optimization path is selected, acquisition is applied
Supporting decision scheme during work.
9. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 8, it is characterised in that: institute
It states in step S2-1, the large deformation earthquake intensity grade includes not occurring, being slight, is medium and strong.
10. the risk quantification and supporting decision-making technique of serious deformation disaster according to claim 9, it is characterised in that:
In the step S2-2, the formula of decision tree are as follows:
In formula, u (ai) it is selection aiThe utility function value in path, express Tunnel Engineering in different brackets supporting scheme cost and
Loss；aiCurrently to select path；pjFor result θjThe probability of appearance；θjFor current path result；I and j is respectively indicatrix.
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| CN101777152A (en) * | 2010-01-28 | 2010-07-14 | 同济大学 | Life-cycle risk analysis-based cutting and tunnel scheme decision model |
| CN107368938A (en) * | 2017-06-03 | 2017-11-21 | 中国人民解放军后勤工程学院 | Quantitative evaluation method for risk loss of single landslide |
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| CN101777152A (en) * | 2010-01-28 | 2010-07-14 | 同济大学 | Life-cycle risk analysis-based cutting and tunnel scheme decision model |
| CN107368938A (en) * | 2017-06-03 | 2017-11-21 | 中国人民解放军后勤工程学院 | Quantitative evaluation method for risk loss of single landslide |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
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| 陈语: "隧道大变形灾害动态风险评估与支护决策研究", 《中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库(硕士)工程科技Ⅱ辑》 * |
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