CN110288130A - A kind of user power consumption prediction technique - Google Patents

A kind of user power consumption prediction technique Download PDF

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CN110288130A
CN110288130A CN201910469792.XA CN201910469792A CN110288130A CN 110288130 A CN110288130 A CN 110288130A CN 201910469792 A CN201910469792 A CN 201910469792A CN 110288130 A CN110288130 A CN 110288130A
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electricity consumption
user
user power
power consumption
variable
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CN110288130B (en
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苏运
吴力波
周阳
马戎
施政昱
陈伟
郭乃网
田英杰
瞿海妮
张琪祁
时志雄
宋岩
庞天宇
沈泉江
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State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The present invention relates to a kind of user power consumption prediction techniques, comprising steps of 1) combining the influences of the factors to power demand such as user property, external condition, establish the Finite mixture model for being equipped with adjoint variable;2) Finite mixture model established according to step 1), deconstructs the electricity consumption data of certain zone user;3) total electricity consumption of certain zone user is deconstructed, obtains electricity consumption desired value, complete user power consumption prediction;4) utilize relative error detecting step 3) in total electricity consumption destructing correctness and stability.Compared with prior art, the present invention can carry out the calculating of different user power demand probability by adjoint variable, facilitate the prediction of user power utilization demand in auxiliary area, can effectively reflect the actual change trend of electricity.

Description

A kind of user power consumption prediction technique
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power market demand forecast analysis technical fields, more particularly, to a kind of user power consumption prediction side Method.
Background technique
Electric energy is widely used in industry, agricultural, enterprises and institutions and daily life, is national economy and people The people's livelihood indispensable energy living.However, we are while enjoying electric energy and bringing us and facilitate and is bright, also in moment wave Take electric energy.For researching and analysing for user power utilization demand, there are selection per capita disposable income, user power utilization valence in the prior art Lattice and last user's per capita household electricity consumption establish the error correction prediction model of current period resident living power utility demand as the factor; There are also be based on Panel Data Model, the residence using the integrated electric appliance index voluntarily calculated as explanatory variable to Typical Cities in China Civilian electricity carries out detailed prediction;And the analysis based on power demand influence factor, resident is directed to using polynary preference pattern The buying behavior for buying household electrical appliance carries out probability Estimation, and then predicts household electrical appliance and the potential electricity consumption level of domestic lighting. However the research of existing resident living power utility demand does not directly deconstruct electric power big data to analyze, does not consider that user belongs to The influences of the factors to power demand such as property, external condition, i.e. user's difference power demand probability how with above-mentioned variable change The power demand probability results changed and changed, therefore obtain cannot reflect the actual change trend of electricity well.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the present invention to overcome the above-mentioned drawbacks of the prior art and provide a kind of user power consumption is pre- Survey method.
The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of user power consumption prediction technique, includes the following steps:
Step 1: the influence in conjunction with factors such as user property, external conditions to power demand establishes and is equipped with adjoint variable Finite mixture model;
The expression formula of the Finite mixture model of foundation are as follows:
In formula, z is adjoint variable, i.e., the probability of variant power demand distribution will change with the variation of z, λi(z) For probability of i-th of Gaussian Profile under the conditions of z, λiIt (z) is load multivariable logit process, K is the quantity of distribution, θiIt is every The parameter that a kind of user power utilization returns, y is explained variable, and x is explanatory variable, f (yi| x, θi) it is ingredient gauss of distribution function.
λi(z) expression formula are as follows:
Step 2: the Finite mixture model established according to step 1 deconstructs the electricity consumption data of certain zone user.
The expression formula that the electricity consumption data of certain zone user is deconstructed are as follows:
f(yijt|xtij)=
θji0ji1TEMPERATUREtji2RAINtji3HUMIDtji4WINDtji
In formula, λij(zt) it include temperature, weather conditions that WEATHER is represented, DATE, TIME respectively represent different electricity consumption days Phase and moment, PEOPLE represent personnel's flow mobile data and current total electricity consumption Y, f (yijt|xtij) it include temperature TEMPERATUREt, rainfall RAINt, humidity HUMIDt, wind speed WINDtImpact factor, vjiIt is jth item electric appliance under i state Desired value, εjiFor residual error of the jth item electric appliance under i state, meet normal distribution.
Step 3: the total electricity consumption of certain zone user being deconstructed, electricity consumption desired value is obtained, it is pre- to complete user power consumption It surveys.
Each electrical appliance is predicted according to current total electricity consumption Y and current meteorology, date, time information, it will Itemize electricity consumption yjyIt indicates are as follows:
The main input variable of above formula is current total electricity consumption Yt, weather and time variable;
The probability that the different conditions of jth item electric appliance are calculated separately according to above formula goes out to work as in conjunction with the probability calculation of different conditions The electricity consumption desired value of jth item electric appliance under preceding Y total electricity consumption, and then complete the decomposition to current electricity consumption total amount.
Step 4: utilizing relative error detecting step 3 correctness and stability of total electricity consumption destructing in).
The expression formula of relative error are as follows:
In formula, N is electrical appliance sum, and T is data volume length.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the following advantages that
One, the method for the present invention deconstructs electric power big data to analyze, in conjunction with factors pair such as user property, external conditions The influence of power demand obtains the prediction result of electricity consumption total amount, can effectively reflect the actual change trend of electricity;
Two, present invention introduces the Finite mixture models for having adjoint variable, and wherein adjoint variable will determine that user's difference is used The classification foundation of electricity demanding, and the calculating of different user power demand probability can be carried out by adjoint variable, help to assist The prediction of user power utilization demand in region, facilitates the rational of electricity market annual planning, avoids the waste of resource.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in detail with specific embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.Obviously, described embodiment is this A part of the embodiment of invention, rather than whole embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art exist Every other embodiment obtained under the premise of creative work is not made, all should belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
Finite mixture model assumes that observation sample is to be distributed the mixed distribution collectively constituted by multiple.Specially system F is by K A distribution collectively forms, and wherein K is obtained by data-driven judgement.Gaussian Mixture distribution is collectively constituted by K Gaussian Profile Mixed distribution form, expression formula are as follows:
Wherein, F (K, λ, μ, σ) is the mixed distribution situation observed, f (μii) it is ingredient gauss of distribution function, λiFor Each is independently distributed the probability of appearance, wherein λi> 0, andMarron and Wand (1992) [32] was once demonstrate,proved Bright, any one continuous probability distribution can be fitted by limited Gaussian Profile, therefore the analysis of mixed model As a result it will not change with the distribution form of observation and change.
Observation Distribution value can be divided into multiple Gaussian Profiles by Finite mixture model, therefore it is substantially a kind of classification side Formula.When carrying out power demand research, not only need to study the power demand classification of user, it is also necessary to understand user property, outer Influence of the factors such as boundary's condition to power demand.
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention relates to a kind of user power consumption prediction technique, this method includes the following steps:
Step 1: the influence in conjunction with factors such as user property, external conditions to power demand, establishes Finite mixture model, Its citation form is as follows:
In formula, z is adjoint variable, i.e., the probability of variant power demand distribution will change with the variation of z, andIn the present invention, it is believed that λ (z)iFor load multivariable logit process, it may be assumed that
In formula, λiIt (z) is probability of i-th of Gaussian Profile under the conditions of z.
Further, it is a kind of commonly to the expansion mode of Finite mixture model be finite mixtures are distributed in F (K, λ, μ, σ) Expanding is regression forms, it may be assumed that
Wherein, y is explained variable, and x is explanatory variable, θiThe parameter returned for every a kind of user power utilization.The formula is The citation form that finite mixtures return thinks that observation y is the condition distribution based on x.
It can be according to observation other factors for it on the basis of finite mixtures return in conjunction with two kinds of mode of extensions Adjoint variable is added in the influence for returning ingredient probability, i.e., willIt is write as:
Step 2: being deconstructed using FMM model to business premises data.
When carrying out Construction analysis to the subitem electricity consumption of business premises using Finite mixture model, this report assumes commercial building The jth kind subitem electricity consumption of space is in t moment electricity consumption yj,tBe be made of K kind state, while the probability of different electricity conditions by Date, temperature, climate condition variable z are influenced, therefore above formula can be rewritten are as follows:
Above formula is the Finite mixture model for the jth item electrical appliance t moment electricity consumption of building, θijIndicate the electricity consumption of jth item The electricity consumption y of i-th kind of state of deviceijtWith influence factor xtRelationship;λ is probability corresponding with jth item electrical appliance, and z is and the The corresponding influence factor of j electrical appliances.Therefore, according to different dates, temporal characteristics, electrical appliance j has different state structures It is proportional, therefore have many characteristics, such as different temperature sensitivities, cause its electricity consumption different.
Since the electricity consumption of different time has notable difference to business premises in 1 year, even if to same weather Feedback degree is also different, as night is different from feedback degree of the daytime for this variable that rains;Different states goes out Existing probability is also influenced by various factors, such as day off and festivals or holidays, since the concentration of crowd is different, leads to difference The electricity consumption of building increases different;Even in one day, the power demand of different time is also different, and office building is often in the afternoon Low power consumption is entered after 5 points, and often welcome peak of power consumption etc. in the evening of market on weekdays;Likewise, in synchronization The probability that different weather the state of electricity consumption may also occur has an impact.It therefore can be by f (yijt|xtij) and λij(zt) It is write as:
f(yijt|xtij)=
θji0ji1TEMPERATUREtji2RAINtji3HUMIDtji4WINDtji
Wherein, λij(zt) primary variables include temperature, weather conditions that WEATHER is represented, DATE and TIME are represented Different electricity consumption dates and moment, PEOPLE represent personnel's flow mobile data and current total electricity consumption Y, f (yijt| xtij) mainly include temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed impact factor.In addition, vjiFor phase of the jth item electric appliance under i state Prestige value, εjiFor residual error of the jth item electric appliance under i state, meet normal distribution.
Step 3: being deconstructed to total electricity consumption.
Destructing to total electricity consumption is substantially according to current total electricity consumption Y and current meteorology, date, moment letter Breath predicts each electrical appliance.It therefore can be by ignition distributor demand yjIt indicates are as follows:
yj=E (yj|Y,z,x,βjj,Kj)
Wherein, yjIt is the electricity consumption of certain electrical appliance j, Y is current total electricity consumption, and x is the influence factor of state, and z is to influence The variable of different conditions probability of occurrence, βjjWith for model parameter, KjFor the state sum of j electrical appliance.Wherein βjj,KjBy The influence of the factors such as attribute, position, technical level, the user's composition of building.For same building, these parameters are to maintain Constant, therefore subitem electricity consumption can be indicated are as follows:
Therefore the main input variable of above formula is current total electricity consumption Y, weather and time variable, calculates separately out electricity consumption The different conditions of device j, by combining the probability of different conditions that can calculate the electricity consumption phase of the j electric appliance under current Y total electricity consumption Prestige value, to realize the decomposition to current electricity consumption total amount.
Step 4: the calculating of destructing error.
The correctness and stability deconstructed using relative error come expression model, defines the relative error of each electrical appliance Are as follows:
Overall error are as follows:
Wherein, N is electrical appliance sum, and T is data volume length.
The above description is merely a specific embodiment, but scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto, any The staff for being familiar with the art in the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, can readily occur in various equivalent modifications or replace It changes, these modifications or substitutions should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be with right It is required that protection scope subject to.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of user power consumption prediction technique, which is characterized in that this method includes the following steps:
1) influences of the factors to power demand such as user property, external condition are combined, the finite mixtures for being equipped with adjoint variable are established Model;
2) Finite mixture model established according to step 1), deconstructs the electricity consumption data of certain zone user;
3) total electricity consumption of certain zone user is deconstructed, obtains electricity consumption desired value, complete user power consumption prediction;
4) utilize relative error detecting step 3) in total electricity consumption destructing correctness and stability.
2. a kind of user power consumption prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in step 1), foundation has Limit the expression formula of mixed model are as follows:
In formula, z is adjoint variable, i.e., the probability of variant power demand distribution will change with the variation of z, λiIt (z) is i-th Probability of a Gaussian Profile under the conditions of z, λiIt (z) is load multivariable logit process, K is the quantity of distribution, θiFor every one kind The parameter that user power utilization returns, y is explained variable, and x is explanatory variable, f (yi|x,θi) it is ingredient gauss of distribution function.
3. a kind of user power consumption prediction technique according to claim 2, which is characterized in that in step 1), λi(z) table Up to formula are as follows:
4. a kind of user power consumption prediction technique according to claim 2, which is characterized in that in step 1), to certain region The expression formula that the electricity consumption data of user is deconstructed are as follows:
f(yijt|xtij)=θji0ji1TEMPERATUREtji2RAINtji3HUMIDtji4WINDtji
In formula, λij(zt) include WEATHER represent temperature, weather conditions, DATE, TIME respectively represent the different electricity consumption dates and Moment, PEOPLE represent personnel's flow mobile data and current total electricity consumption Y, f (yijt|xtij) it include temperature TEMPERATUREt, rainfall RAINt, humidity HUMIDt, wind speed WINDtImpact factor, vjiIt is jth item electric appliance under i state Desired value, εjiFor residual error of the jth item electric appliance under i state, meet normal distribution.
5. a kind of user power consumption prediction technique according to claim 4, which is characterized in that in step 1), step 3) Particular content are as follows:
Each electrical appliance is predicted according to current total electricity consumption Y and current meteorology, date, time information, will be itemized Electricity consumption yjtIt indicates are as follows:
The main input variable of above formula is current total electricity consumption Yt, weather and time variable;
The probability that the different conditions of jth item electric appliance are calculated separately according to above formula, in conjunction with the probability calculations of different conditions, to go out current Y total The electricity consumption desired value of jth item electric appliance under electricity consumption, and then complete the decomposition to current electricity consumption total amount.
6. a kind of user power consumption prediction technique according to claim 5, which is characterized in that in step 4), relative error Expression formula are as follows:
In formula, N is electrical appliance sum, and T is data volume length.
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CN111027202A (en) * 2019-12-04 2020-04-17 北京软通智城科技有限公司 Method, device and equipment for predicting digital city and storage medium
CN111506636A (en) * 2020-05-12 2020-08-07 上海积成能源科技有限公司 System and method for analyzing residential electricity consumption behavior based on autoregressive and neighbor algorithm

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CN111027202A (en) * 2019-12-04 2020-04-17 北京软通智城科技有限公司 Method, device and equipment for predicting digital city and storage medium
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