CN110232509A - A kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model - Google Patents
A kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model Download PDFInfo
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- CN110232509A CN110232509A CN201910475546.5A CN201910475546A CN110232509A CN 110232509 A CN110232509 A CN 110232509A CN 201910475546 A CN201910475546 A CN 201910475546A CN 110232509 A CN110232509 A CN 110232509A
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- 230000000454 anti-cipatory effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 8
- 238000013075 data extraction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 7
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 239000000284 extract Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000007306 turnover Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000015572 biosynthetic process Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000000556 factor analysis Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000003786 synthesis reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000003542 behavioural effect Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000006872 improvement Effects 0.000 description 8
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- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 3
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control models, a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model, including external data port, medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel and the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises and are all connected to the external data port and section grading module respectively as the independent submodel of the medium-sized and small enterprises air control model；The medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel, according to nearly 5 years financial report data of enterprise, the numerical value of the Anticipatory breach probability of enterprise's the coming five years is calculated, the medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel includes the first index allocation module, the first data extraction module and the first data computation module；The qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises chooses module and qualitative model grading module including the second index allocation module, index, and user chooses module in index according to own actual situation and chooses.Financial institution uses any one submodel, the relevant informations such as the credit rating of enterprise for wanting to understand will be obtained, to prejudge the credit risk of medium-sized and small enterprises.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to air control modelling technique fields, and in particular to a kind of air control model for medium-sized and small enterprises standing.
Background technique
It is well known that medium-sized and small enterprises play further important role under market environment instantly.Medium-sized and small enterprises exist
During seeking financing, the disadvantages of because of apodia value guaranty and dutiable certificate, cause to seek finance from conventional banking facilities
It is rebuffed repeatedly during service, it is easy to medium-sized and small enterprises be caused to be led because lacking of capital or supply chain financial service is not in place
Cause industrial upgrading is hopeless, bankruptcy of even closing down.For financial services, under current economic overall situation, certainly to promotion
The demand of body risk prevention system ability is increasingly urgent to, by establishing business risk Controlling model, can allow assets manager, bank and
Insurance company etc. it is positive predict potential risks, making a response faster and more efficiently, and in thousands of wind
Steady decision is made when dangerous occurrences, is prevented enterprise's promise breaking from causing loss on bad debt, is reduced business risk.
The air control measure of traditional medium-sized and small enterprises, including quantitative analysis, but medium-sized and small enterprises are carried out to enterprise's financial data
Financial data often there are problems that small scale not can guarantee its authenticity without complete, without supervision, for medium-sized and small enterprises,
The incomplete phenomenon of its data is more universal, by financial variables PD model and need the qualitative model of achievement data often without
Method guarantees the accuracy of model prediction result, along with financial institution does not have reference branch of the specific theoretical model as air control
Support, so that financial institution increases the difficulty of business loan air control；At the same time, the medium-sized and small enterprises of colleague seek cooperation when,
It is also required to estimate the credit violation of agreement of other side enterprise, is more that enterprise operator depends at present with decision of cooperating
The risk that experience goes judgement to cooperate, the violation of agreement of enterprise is judged there are no the quantitative target for being exclusively used in medium-sized and small enterprises.
What above situation was unfavorable for fund in the market vitalizes flowing and the operation of medium-sized and small enterprises, faces this predicament, provides technology solution
Certainly scheme is necessary really.
We are by establishing a kind of air control model for being adapted to medium-sized and small enterprises characteristic, so that the finance class mechanism such as bank can be with
The credit standing of accredited object is measured according to this, to prejudge the credit risk of medium-sized and small enterprises；Similarly, peer enterprises can also be according to
This Default Probability to estimate other side enterprise, to instruct the wind when economic relations such as itself and other side's medium-sized and small enterprises generation contract
Danger.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is intended to provide a kind of a kind of medium and small enterprise for overcoming the above problem or at least being partially solved the above problem
Industry air control model is instructed in itself and other side with solving credit risk and the enterprise of the financial class mechanism anticipation medium-sized and small enterprises such as bank
The problem of small enterprise cooperates.
In order to achieve the above objectives, technical solution of the present invention is specifically achieved in that a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model,
Including external data port, medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel and the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises are respectively as the medium-sized and small enterprises air control
The independent submodel of model, and it is all connected to the external data port and section grading module；The medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodule
Type calculates the numerical value of the Anticipatory breach probability of enterprise's the coming five years, the medium and small enterprise according to nearly 5 years financial report data of enterprise
Industry PD submodel includes the first index allocation module, the first data extraction module and the first data computation module；The medium and small enterprise
The qualitative submodel of industry chooses module and qualitative model grading module including the second index allocation module, index, and user is according to itself
Actual conditions are chosen module in index and are chosen.
As further improvement of these options, the first index allocation module includes index set and first sample number
According to module, the index set is preset with 20 common financial variables, and the first sample data module is described outer by being connected to
Portion's data port has invoked the data of the corresponding index set of thousands of scale state-owned enterprise industry, and by the method for factor analysis, from
10 financial variables that accumulative contribution degree reaches 96% are extracted in the index set.
As further improvement of these options, 10 financial variables be followed successively by library pin ratio, recovery of the capital rate, always
Asset turnover, interest cover ratio, income from sales growth rate, net assets debt ratio, liquidity ratio, assets net profit margin, battalion
Industry profit growth rate and sales volume.
As further improvement of these options, first data extraction module is by being connected to the external data
Port extracts the number of correspondence 10 financial variables in the nearly 5 years financial report data of enterprise using first Index module
According to then calculating the numerical value of the Anticipatory breach probability of enterprise's the coming five years by the first data computation module, the enterprise is not
The numerical value for carrying out 5 years Anticipatory breach probability falls into the respective bins of the section grading module.
As further improvement of these options, the second index allocation module includes company information collection and the second sample
Notebook data module, the company information collection include enterprise's industry and commerce data, and the second sample data module is described by being connected to
External data port calls the data of the corresponding company information collection of the enterprise, is analyzed by sample data, and configuration is obtained and looked forward to
Industry credit standing has strongly connected qualitative index.
As further improvement of these options, the qualitative index is placed into the index and chooses module as choosing
, each qualitative index is set with corresponding score, and the user submits after choosing item, score summation is obtained,
The score summation falls into the respective bins of the section grading module.
As further improvement of these options, the item of choosing that the index chooses module is enterprise's essential information, debt
Item information, financial index, behavioural information, enterprise's reference information, corporate boss's essential information and corporate boss's reference information.
As further improvement of these options, the rating result of unlisted company is by the medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel
It is obtained with the qualitative submodule pattern synthesis of the medium-sized and small enterprises.
As further improvement of these options, section grading module by the classification of score section be provided with AAA, AA,
A, nine sections BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, C.
It is instructed in itself and other side to solve credit risk and the enterprise of the financial class mechanism anticipation medium-sized and small enterprises such as bank
The problem of small enterprise cooperates, the present invention provides a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model, and beneficial effect is:
1, by being equipped with external data port, medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel and medium-sized and small enterprises in medium-sized and small enterprises air control model
Qualitative submodel, financial institution and peer enterprises use any one submodel by actual demand, will obtain wanting to understand
The relevant informations such as the credit rating of enterprise, to prejudge the credit risk of medium-sized and small enterprises, or instruct itself with it is small in other side
The Cooperation Decision-making of enterprise；
2, by being provided with first sample data module in medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel, big data analysis sieve has been carried out
Choosing, avoids the influence of subjective factor, and it is abundant enough that the sample size of model research compares other research methods, improves model
The accuracy rate of prediction；
3, the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises is set, dependence of the existing air control model for financial data is reduced, thus
It compensates for since the financial data of medium-sized and small enterprises is not perfect, lacks lacking for the inaccuracy of the model calculation caused by authenticity
It falls into；
4, it is directed to unlisted company, by comprehensive medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel and the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises, obtains it
Rating result, so that more fully to the risk rating of enterprise, the confidence level that business standing is considered is increased, for financial institution
For peer enterprises, the practical significance for instructing it to carry out Risk Evaluation work is further enhanced.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to illustrate the technical solution of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, required use in being described below to embodiment
Attached drawing be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the invention, for this
For the those of ordinary skill in field, without creative efforts, it can also be obtained according to these attached drawings other
Attached drawing.
Fig. 1 is the functional block diagram of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the functional block diagram of medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the functional block diagram of the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are described in more detail below with reference to accompanying drawings.Although showing the disclosure in attached drawing
Exemplary embodiment, it being understood, however, that may be realized in various forms the disclosure without should be by embodiments set forth here
It is limited.On the contrary, these embodiments are provided to facilitate a more thoroughly understanding of the present invention, and can be by the scope of the present disclosure
It is fully disclosed to those skilled in the art.
Fig. 1-3 shows a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model provided in an embodiment of the present invention, including external data port, in
Small enterprise's PD submodel and the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises and connect respectively as the independent submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model
It is connected to external data port and section grading module.Medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel and the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises call outside
Data port, finally obtained numerical result can correspond in the grading corresponding section of module of section, and section grading module, which is pressed, divides
Several sections of classifications are provided with AAA (best), AA (outstanding), A (good), BBB (preferable), BB (general), B (concern), CCC (emphasis
Concern), CC (extremely pay close attention to), nine sections C (slight property promise breaking).Medium-sized and small enterprises air control model is graded module feedback by section
Out it is to be understood that enterprise credit rating.Financial institution and peer enterprises press actual demand and use any one submodule
Type obtains the relevant informations such as the credit rating of enterprise for wanting to understand, to prejudge the credit risk of medium-sized and small enterprises, or instructs itself
With the Cooperation Decision-making of other side's medium-sized and small enterprises.
Medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel, according to nearly 5 years financial report data of enterprise, the expection for calculating enterprise's the coming five years is disobeyed
The about numerical value of probability.Medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel includes the first index allocation module, the first data extraction module and the first data
Computing module.Wherein: the first index allocation module includes index set and first sample data module, and index set is preset with 20 often
See financial variables, the correspondence that first sample data module has invoked thousands of scale state-owned enterprise industry by being connected to external data port
The data of index set 10 that accumulative contribution degree reaches 96% are extracted from index set and by the method for factor analysis
Financial variables.Preferably, 10 financial variables are followed successively by library pin ratio, recovery of the capital rate, the turnover of total assets, interest ensure again
Number, income from sales growth rate, net assets debt ratio, liquidity ratio, assets net profit margin, operating profit growth rate and sales volume.
First data extraction module extracts enterprise nearly five by being connected to the external data port, using first Index module
The data of correspondence 10 financial variables in year financial report data, then calculate enterprise not by the first data computation module
Carry out the numerical value of 5 years Anticipatory breach probability, the numerical value of the Anticipatory breach probability of enterprise's the coming five years falls into section grading module
Respective bins.The maximum feature that medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel of the invention is different from existing PD model is: its be by
It is provided with sample data module in model, has carried out big data analysis screening, avoids the influence of subjective factor, model research
Sample size compares that other research methods are abundant enough, improves the accuracy rate of model prediction, supplementary explanation is of the invention
Medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel test result show its accuracy rate be 87%, can effectively anticipating risk generation.
The qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises chooses module and qualitative model scoring mould including the second index allocation module, index
Block, user choose module in index according to own actual situation and choose.Second index allocation module includes company information collection
With the second sample data module, company information collection includes enterprise's industry and commerce data, and the second sample data module is by being connected to outside
Data port calls the data of the corresponding company information collection of the enterprise, is analyzed by sample data, and configuration obtains believing with enterprise
There is strongly connected qualitative index with situation.Qualitative index is placed into index and chooses module as choosing item, each qualitative index
It is set with corresponding score, user submits after choosing item, obtains score summation, and score summation falls into the section grading
The respective bins of module.Preferably, the item of choosing that index chooses module is enterprise's essential information, liability information, financial index, row
For this 7 level-one items of information, enterprise's reference information, corporate boss's essential information and corporate boss's reference information, more specifically, this
In enterprise's essential information be subdivided into economic type, manage months, registered capital arrival rate and with upstream and downstream major customer's
Relationship；Liability information is specially the across variable of risk mitigation rate and assuring mode；Financial index be subdivided into main business income,
Cash bank loan current rate, net assets and year end loan balance ratio, stock turnover rate and net profit/total assets；Behavior
Information subdivision is that 12 monthly average are deposited to the ratio of loan, the continuous overdue longest number of days of past 12 months loan principal in the past
With the continuous overdue longest number of days of 12 monthly interests of past；Enterprise's reference information is specially the loan shape of its row in enterprise's reference
State；Corporate boss's essential information be subdivided into the educational background of actual controller, actual controller sincere, practicing time of actual controller,
Actual controller family total assets/total liability；Corporate boss's reference information is specially the credit record of actual controller.The present invention is logical
Cross the qualitative submodel of building medium-sized and small enterprises, reduce dependence of the existing air control model for financial data, thus compensate for by
In medium-sized and small enterprises financial data it is not perfect, lack authenticity caused by the model calculation inaccuracy defect.
Preferably, for unlisted company, for the accuracy for guaranteeing assessment result, rating result is by medium-sized and small enterprises PD
Model is obtained with the qualitative submodule pattern synthesis of medium-sized and small enterprises.This way makes the risk rating to enterprise more fully, increases
The confidence level that business standing is considered further enhances and its development risk is instructed to comment for financial institution and peer enterprises
Sentence the practical significance of work.
The above is only embodiments herein, are not intended to limit this application.To those skilled in the art,
Various changes and changes are possible in this application.It is all within the spirit and principles of the present application made by any modification, equivalent replacement,
Improve etc., it should be included within the scope of the claims of this application.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model, including external data port, it is characterised in that:
Medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel and the qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises are respectively as the independent sub of the medium-sized and small enterprises air control model
Model, and it is all connected to the external data port and section grading module；
The medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel, according to nearly 5 years financial report data of enterprise, the expection for calculating enterprise's the coming five years is disobeyed
The about numerical value of probability, the medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel include the first index allocation module, the first data extraction module and first
Data computation module；
The qualitative submodel of medium-sized and small enterprises chooses module and qualitative model scoring mould including the second index allocation module, index
Block, user choose module in index according to own actual situation and choose.
2. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: the first index allocation module packet
Index set and first sample data module are included, the index set is preset with 20 common financial variables, the first sample data
The data that module has invoked the corresponding index set of thousands of scale state-owned enterprise industry by being connected to the external data port, and lead to
The method for crossing factor analysis extracts 10 financial variables that accumulative contribution degree reaches 96% from the index set.
3. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that: 10 financial variables are followed successively by
Sell ratio, recovery of the capital rate, the turnover of total assets, interest cover ratio, income from sales growth rate, net assets debt ratio, flowing in library
Ratio, assets net profit margin, operating profit growth rate and sales volume.
4. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as claimed in any one of claims 1-3, it is characterised in that: first data
Extraction module extracts the nearly 5 years financial report numbers of enterprise by being connected to the external data port, using first Index module
The data of correspondence 10 financial variables in, then calculate enterprise's the coming five years by the first data computation module
The numerical value of Anticipatory breach probability, the numerical value of the Anticipatory breach probability of described enterprise's the coming five years fall into the section grading module
Respective bins.
5. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: the second index allocation module packet
Company information collection and the second sample data module are included, the company information collection includes enterprise's industry and commerce data, second sample number
The data for calling the corresponding company information collection of the enterprise by being connected to the external data port according to module, pass through sample number
According to analysis, configuration obtains having strongly connected qualitative index with business standing situation.
6. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as claimed in claim 1 or 5, it is characterised in that: the qualitative index is placed into
The index chooses module as item is chosen, and each qualitative index is set with corresponding score, and the user has chosen hook
It is submitted after option, obtains score summation, the score summation falls into the respective bins of the section grading module.
7. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that: the index chooses choosing for module
Item is enterprise's essential information, liability information, financial index, behavioural information, enterprise's reference information, corporate boss's essential information and enterprise
Main reference information.
8. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: the rating result of unlisted company by
The medium-sized and small enterprises PD submodel is obtained with the qualitative submodule pattern synthesis of the medium-sized and small enterprises.
9. a kind of medium-sized and small enterprises air control model as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: the section grading module presses score
Section classification is provided with nine sections AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, C.
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Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2001282957A (en) * | 2000-03-29 | 2001-10-12 | Moody's Investers Service Inc | System and method for analyzing credit risk |
| CN102226914A (en) * | 2011-05-26 | 2011-10-26 | 李强 | Science oriented medium and small size enterprises growth capability expert evaluating system |
| CN103154991A (en) * | 2010-07-23 | 2013-06-12 | 汤森路透环球资源公司 | Credit risk mining |
| CN104966160A (en) * | 2015-06-11 | 2015-10-07 | 安徽融信金模信息技术有限公司 | Risk assessment system for small and medium-sized enterprises |
| CN108898479A (en) * | 2018-06-28 | 2018-11-27 | 中国农业银行股份有限公司 | The construction method and device of Credit Evaluation Model |
| CN109829816A (en) * | 2019-01-29 | 2019-05-31 | 浪潮金融信息技术有限公司 | A kind of rating model page configuration workaround applied to credit debt rating system |
-
2019
- 2019-06-03 CN CN201910475546.5A patent/CN110232509A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2001282957A (en) * | 2000-03-29 | 2001-10-12 | Moody's Investers Service Inc | System and method for analyzing credit risk |
| CN103154991A (en) * | 2010-07-23 | 2013-06-12 | 汤森路透环球资源公司 | Credit risk mining |
| CN102226914A (en) * | 2011-05-26 | 2011-10-26 | 李强 | Science oriented medium and small size enterprises growth capability expert evaluating system |
| CN104966160A (en) * | 2015-06-11 | 2015-10-07 | 安徽融信金模信息技术有限公司 | Risk assessment system for small and medium-sized enterprises |
| CN108898479A (en) * | 2018-06-28 | 2018-11-27 | 中国农业银行股份有限公司 | The construction method and device of Credit Evaluation Model |
| CN109829816A (en) * | 2019-01-29 | 2019-05-31 | 浪潮金融信息技术有限公司 | A kind of rating model page configuration workaround applied to credit debt rating system |
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Application publication date: 20190913 |