CN110232202B - Power generation right transaction effect evaluation method and device, computer equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
Power generation right transaction effect evaluation method and device, computer equipment and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application relates to a power generation right transaction effect evaluation method and device, computer equipment and a storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values; calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values; and obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction. By adopting the method, the effect generated by the power generation right transaction can be evaluated, and the wind power consumption capability is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The present application relates to the field of power system technologies, and in particular, to a power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, device, computer device, and storage medium.
Background
The trading of the power generation right is an important market mode in a power trading system in China, and enterprises with insufficient production capacity and insufficient load in a power supply area cannot complete a power generation plan and need to trade the power generation right with a unit with rich production capacity to obtain benefits. Through the power generation right transaction, the electric quantity consumed by the wind power can be improved while the income of an enterprise is guaranteed, and the method becomes an important way for solving the problems of energy abandonment and electricity limitation.
However, most of the current power generation right trading focuses on the market attributes, the macro market mode and the trading strategy of the participants pay more attention, and no detailed strategy is used for evaluating the effect of the power generation right trading.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, in order to solve the above technical problems, it is necessary to provide a power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, device, computer device and storage medium capable of evaluating an effect generated by power generation right transaction and improving wind power consumption capability.
A power generation right transaction effect evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values;
calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values;
and obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction.
In one embodiment, the modifying the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model includes:
acquiring parameters in a power generation right transaction process, wherein the parameters comprise transaction time, transaction power and transaction starting power;
And correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model according to the parameters.
In one embodiment, the modifying the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model according to the parameter includes:
respectively correcting the wind power probability curves in the multiple power generation right trading areas according to the parameters to obtain multiple corrected wind power probability curves;
and performing probability convolution operation on the plurality of corrected wind power probability curves to finish the correction of the wind power probability curves by the evaluation model.
In one embodiment, the modifying the wind power probability curves in the multiple power generation right trading areas respectively according to the parameters to obtain multiple modified wind power probability curves includes:
dividing each power generation right transaction area into a plurality of time intervals according to a time cycle to obtain a wind power probability curve corresponding to each time interval;
and obtaining the wind power probability curve in the power generation right trading area according to a plurality of wind power probability curves corresponding to each time interval.
In one embodiment, the calculating, according to the plurality of corrected wind power values and the plurality of corrected wind power probability values, a wind curtailment electric quantity after a transaction includes:
Obtaining an expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected plurality of wind power values;
and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction by a random production simulation method according to the expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction and the corrected multiple wind power probability values.
In one embodiment, the obtaining an evaluation result according to the wind curtailment electric quantity before the transaction and the wind curtailment electric quantity after the transaction includes:
carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole network;
the total amount of the power load is consumed through a thermal power unit to obtain a first residual load amount;
the first residual load is consumed through a wind turbine generator set to obtain a second residual load;
and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction according to the wind power probability curve and the second residual load quantity.
In one embodiment, the performing probability distribution on the load power values in the preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole grid includes:
carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain a maximum power load value and a load probability density function;
Obtaining an equivalent continuous load curve according to the maximum power load and the load probability density function;
and discretizing the equivalent continuous load curve based on an equivalent electric quantity function method to obtain the total electric load of the whole network.
In one embodiment, said consuming said total amount of electrical load by said thermal power generating unit comprises:
segmenting the thermal power generating unit to obtain a base load unit and a peak load unit;
sequencing the base charge unit and the peak charge unit respectively according to the sequence of the coal consumption rate from low to high to obtain a base charge sequence and a peak charge sequence;
the total amount of the power load is consumed through the base load sequence to obtain the residual load amount of the base load;
and the residual basic load is consumed through the peak load sequence to obtain the first residual load.
In one embodiment, the obtaining an evaluation result according to the wind curtailment electric quantity before the transaction and the wind curtailment electric quantity after the transaction includes:
comparing the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction with the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction;
and if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, evaluating the generation right transaction effect.
In one embodiment, the method further comprises:
establishing the evaluation model, including: and establishing a random production simulation model with time and region division.
In one embodiment, the establishing a stochastic production simulation model of time-share zoning comprises:
determining a time interval range and a wind power output range during power generation right transaction;
and establishing a random production simulation model of the time-interval and regional division according to the time-interval range and the wind power output range.
In one embodiment, the determining the period range and the wind power output range when the power generation right trade is conducted includes:
calculating to obtain the wind abandoning rate before the transaction according to the wind power value before the correction and the wind abandoning electric quantity before the transaction;
limiting the range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction, and determining the minimum region of the power generation right transaction according to the limited range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction;
and in the minimum region of the power generation right transaction, determining a time period range and a wind-electricity output range during the power generation right transaction according to the lower limit of the wind-electricity probability value before correction, the lower limit of the wind curtailment rate before transaction and the lower limit of the total wind-electricity probability value.
An electricity generation right transaction effect evaluation apparatus, the apparatus comprising:
The wind power probability curve correction module is used for correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values;
the traded abandoned wind power calculation module is used for calculating the traded abandoned wind power according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values;
and the evaluation module is used for obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction.
A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, the processor implementing the following steps when executing the computer program:
correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values;
calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values;
and obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction.
A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when executed by a processor, carries out the steps of:
Correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values;
calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values;
and obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction.
According to the power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, the power generation right transaction effect evaluation device, the computer equipment and the storage medium, the wind power probability curve is corrected through the pre-established evaluation model, the abandoned wind power quantity after the transaction is calculated according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values, and finally the evaluation result is obtained according to the abandoned wind power quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind power quantity after the transaction. The effect of generating right transaction production is evaluated by taking the reduced wind abandoning power in the generating right transaction process as an effect evaluation index, and meanwhile, the wind power consumption capability is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an exemplary embodiment of an application environment of a trading effect evaluation method for power generation rights;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for evaluating trading effects of power generation rights in one embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of wind power probability curve modification in one embodiment;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a random production simulation method in one embodiment;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing the structure of a power generation right transaction effect evaluation apparatus according to an embodiment;
FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an internal structure of a computer device according to an embodiment.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.
The power generation right transaction effect evaluation method provided by the application can be applied to the application environment shown in fig. 1. The wind turbine 102 communicates with the terminal 104 through a network. The corrected multiple wind power values and the corrected multiple wind power probability values obtained in the wind turbine 102 are sent to the terminal 104, the terminal 104 calculates the abandoned wind power quantity after the transaction according to the corrected multiple wind power values and the corrected multiple wind power probability values, and an evaluation result is obtained according to the abandoned wind power quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind power quantity after the transaction. The terminal 102 may be, but is not limited to, various personal computers, notebook computers, smart phones, tablet computers, and portable wearable devices.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, there is provided a power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, which is described by taking the method as an example applied to the terminal in fig. 1, and includes the following steps:
step S202, correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values.
The evaluation model refers to a stochastic production simulation model for evaluating an effect generated after power generation right trading between two electric fields. For example: the two electric fields for carrying out power generation right transaction are a new energy enterprise and a self-contained power plant, the self-contained power plant does not arrange a power generation plan, the new energy enterprise consumes the generated energy required by the self-contained power plant, the original new energy enterprise only needs to consume the generated energy required by the self to generate more abandoned wind electricity, after the power generation right transaction is carried out, the new energy enterprise needs to consume the generated energy required by the self-contained power plant besides consuming the generated energy required by the self, and therefore less abandoned wind electricity is generated, the abandoned wind electricity reduced in the power generation right transaction process can be used as a main index for effect evaluation, and the evaluation model can be understood as a random production simulation model for evaluating the abandoned wind electricity reduced after the power generation right transaction is carried out between the two electric fields.
The wind power probability curve refers to wind power cumulative probability curves of different wind power plants in different areas with the abscissa as the wind power value and the ordinate as the wind power probability value.
Specifically, a wind power probability curve is corrected through a pre-established evaluation model, and a plurality of abscissa values and a plurality of ordinate values are extracted from the curve, namely a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values are extracted.
And step S204, calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values.
The wind abandoning amount after the transaction refers to the wind abandoning amount generated by the wind power plant after the power generation right transaction is carried out. And each corrected wind power value corresponds to one corrected wind power probability value.
As an optional implementation manner, step S204 specifically includes the following steps:
step S2042, obtaining the expected value of the abandoned wind power after the transaction according to the corrected plurality of wind power values.
And step S2044, calculating the abandoned wind power after the transaction by a random production simulation method according to the expected value of the abandoned wind power after the transaction and the corrected multiple wind power probability values.
Specifically, the corrected multiple wind power values and the corrected multiple wind power probability values obtained in step S202 are substituted into formula (1) to be calculated, so as to obtain the abandoned wind power after the transaction.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing one of the plurality of corrected wind power values;
representing one of the corrected wind power probability values, which corresponds to the wind power value;
an expected value representing the abandoned wind electric quantity under the corrected wind power;
representing transactionsThe electricity quantity of the abandoned wind is obtained.
And step S206, obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction.
The abandoned wind power quantity before the transaction refers to the abandoned wind power quantity generated by the wind power plant before the power generation right transaction is carried out. Specifically, the wind curtailment amount generated in the power generation right transaction process is obtained according to the wind curtailment amount before the transaction and the wind curtailment amount after the transaction calculated in step S204, so that the evaluation result of the power generation right transaction is obtained.
According to the power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, the wind power probability curve is corrected through a pre-established evaluation model, the abandoned wind power quantity after the transaction is calculated according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values, and finally an evaluation result is obtained according to the abandoned wind power quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind power quantity after the transaction. The effect of generating right transaction production is evaluated by taking the reduced wind abandoning power in the generating right transaction process as an effect evaluation index, and meanwhile, the wind power consumption capability is improved.
In one embodiment, step S202 specifically includes the following steps:
step S2022, acquiring parameters in the power generation right transaction process.
Wherein the parameters include transaction time, transaction power, and transaction initiation power. Specifically, key parameters such as transaction time, transaction power and transaction starting power during power generation right transaction are obtained.
And S2024, correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model according to the parameters.
Specifically, in actual production, power generation right trading is often performed in a fixed trading period (i.e., trading time determination) and under a fixed wind power output value (i.e., trading power and trading start power determination), and a wind power probability curve is corrected by modifying the trading probability.
As an optional implementation manner, step S2024 specifically includes the following steps:
step S20242, respectively correcting the wind power probability curves in the plurality of power generation right trading areas according to the parameters to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power probability curves.
Specifically, referring to fig. 3, the wind power output interval of the power generation right transaction occurring in the region 1 is
For wind power probability curves in various regions 
Respectively correcting to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power probability curves
As an optional implementation manner, the step of obtaining the wind power probability curve in the power generation right trading area specifically includes: dividing each power generation right transaction area into a plurality of time intervals according to a time cycle to obtain a wind power probability curve corresponding to each time interval; and obtaining the wind power probability curve in the power generation right trading area according to a plurality of wind power probability curves corresponding to each time interval.
Continuing with FIG. 3, assume that the wind farm in zone 1 is divided into two time segments, respectively [ T ] according to a time period T (e.g., 24h) o ,t c ]And in other time periods, calculating a wind power probability curve of the wind power plant in the region 1 according to the formula (2):
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing a wind power probability curve for a wind farm within region 1;
represents a time period t o ,t c ]Corresponding wind power probability curves;
and representing the wind power probability curve corresponding to the rest time intervals.
Step S20244, performing probability convolution operation on the plurality of corrected wind power probability curves to complete correction of the wind power probability curves by the evaluation model.
Specifically, calculation is carried out according to a formula (3) in random production simulation according to the corrected wind power probability curve, and the abandoned wind power amount is evaluated.
Wherein, F w (x) Representing the corrected total wind power probability curve;
representing the corrected wind power probability curve in the ith area;
all wind power probability curves representing systems not participating in power generation right trading.
According to the power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, the wind power probability curve is corrected by modifying the transaction probability, so that calculation is performed according to the corrected wind power probability curve, the effect of evaluating the abandoned wind power quantity is achieved, and the effect of evaluating the effect generated by power generation right transaction is achieved.
In one embodiment, the step of calculating the amount of the wind curtailment before the transaction in step S206 specifically includes:
step S2062, carrying out probability distribution on the load power value in the preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole network.
As an optional implementation manner, step S2062 specifically includes the following steps:
step S20622, performing probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain a maximum power load value and a load probability density function.
And step S20624, obtaining an equivalent continuous load curve according to the maximum power load and the load probability density function.
Specifically, according to historical data, probability distribution is performed on the Load power value in a preset period to obtain an Equivalent sustained Load Curve (ELDC), which is defined as shown in formula (4):
Wherein x represents a load value; p Lmax Represents the maximum value of the electrical load; f. of L (x) A probability density function representing the load.
Step S20626, discretizing the equivalent continuous load curve based on an equivalent electric quantity function method to obtain the total electric load of the whole network.
Specifically, the equivalent continuous load curve in step S20624 is discretized based on an equivalent electrical quantity function method, and an electrical load sequence, that is, the total amount of electrical loads of the entire grid, is generated. Optionally, the preset period may be set according to research needs, and is not specifically limited herein.
And S2064, absorbing the total amount of the power load through a thermal power unit to obtain a first residual load.
Specifically, the number of starting-up units of the electric power units in a preset period is determined, an online unit set is formed, and the total electric power load of the whole grid obtained in the step S2062 is consumed through the online unit set to obtain a first residual load.
As an optional implementation manner, step S2064 specifically includes the following steps:
and S20642, segmenting the thermal power generating unit to obtain a base load unit and a peak load unit.
The load units are the generator units bearing part of loads of the daily load curve base part of the power system; peak load units refer to the highest load units experienced by the power or gas supply system. Specifically, the online thermal power generating unit set is divided into two parts, namely a base load unit and a peak load unit.
And S20644, sequencing the base load units and the peak load units respectively according to the sequence of the coal consumption rate from low to high to obtain a base load sequence and a peak load sequence.
Specifically, the lower the coal consumption rate is, the higher the working efficiency of the thermal power generating unit is, so that the base load unit and the peak load unit obtained in step S20642 are respectively sorted according to the sequence of the coal consumption rate from low to high to obtain a base load sequence and a peak load sequence, that is, the thermal power generating unit with high working efficiency is preferentially arranged to participate in production.
And step S20646, the total amount of the electric power load is consumed through the base load sequence, and the base load residual load is obtained.
Specifically, the total amount of the power load in step S2062 is consumed by participating in production through the base load sequence of the online thermal power generating unit set, so as to obtain the remaining base load amount. Referring to fig. 4, assuming that there are N thermal power generating units, a power accumulation probability curve F of the thermal power generating unit cn (x) Has the following relationship with ELDC
Wherein, C imin Represents the minimum generated power of the ith ignition power in MW.
Step S20648, the residual load of the base load is absorbed through the peak load sequence, and the first residual load is obtained.
Specifically, the residual base load in step S20646 is consumed by participating in production through the peak load sequence of the online thermal power generating unit set, so as to obtain a first residual load.
And S2066, the first residual load is absorbed through the wind turbine generator set, and a second residual load is obtained.
Specifically, the first residual load in step S2064 is consumed by the wind turbine generator participating in the production to obtain a second residualThe amount of load. The power curve of the wind power can only be arranged between the total electric power curve of the thermal power generating unit and the ELDC. The wind power arrangement process is expressed by utilizing the concept of an inverse function, and the cumulative probability function of each power supply power after the wind power arrangement is assumed to be p ww ＝F ww (x) Express that there is an inverse function
Then
Wherein, C imin Represents the minimum generating power of the ith station power, and the unit is MW;
and the inverse function represents the cumulative probability distribution of the basic load of the thermal power generating unit.
And S2068, calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction according to the wind power probability curve and the second residual load quantity.
Specifically, a plurality of wind power values before correction and a plurality of wind power probability values before correction are extracted from a wind power probability curve before power generation right transaction, and the extracted plurality of wind power values before correction and the plurality of wind power probability values before correction are substituted into a formula (1) for calculation to obtain abandoned wind power quantity before transaction.
In the power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, the abandoned wind electric quantity before transaction is calculated through a random production simulation method, so that the abandoned wind electric quantity after transaction is compared with the abandoned wind electric quantity after transaction, and evaluation of the abandoned wind electric quantity is realized.
In one embodiment, step S206 further includes the following steps:
and step S2062a, comparing the wind curtailment electric quantity before the transaction with the wind curtailment electric quantity after the transaction.
Specifically, the wind curtailment amount before the transaction calculated in step S2068 is compared with the wind curtailment amount after the transaction calculated in step S204.
And step S2064a, if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, evaluating the electricity generation right transaction generating effect.
Specifically, the more the electricity abandoning amount is reduced in the electricity generation right transaction process, the more remarkable the effect of the electricity generation right transaction is, so that if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, the effect of the electricity generation right transaction is evaluated; and if the abandoned wind power before the transaction is lower than the abandoned wind power after the transaction, evaluating that the power generation right transaction does not produce an effect.
Optionally, the effect of the power generation right transaction may be influenced by parameter adjustment, for example: the power generation right trading effect can be improved by reducing the power generation right trading starting power, increasing the trading power or prolonging the trading time, so that the consumption capacity of the system is enhanced.
According to the power generation right transaction effect evaluation method, the power generation right transaction is brought into the calculation framework in the planning stage, the effect evaluation is performed on the power generation right transaction before operation, and the power generation right transaction is executed when the effect obtained through evaluation is obvious, so that the decision-making capability determined by system operation is improved.
In one embodiment, another method for evaluating trading effects of power generation rights is provided, and the method further includes establishing the evaluation model, specifically including establishing a random production simulation model in different time periods and different regions, and specifically including the following steps:
step S302, determining a time interval range and a wind power output range during power generation right transaction.
Wherein, the time interval range when the power generation right trade is carried out refers to the time interval when the power generation right trade is carried out; the wind power output range during the power generation right transaction refers to the power interval of the wind power output within the time period range of the power generation right transaction.
As an optional implementation manner, step S302 specifically includes the following steps:
and step S3022, calculating to obtain the wind abandoning rate before the transaction according to the wind power value before the correction and the wind abandoning electric quantity before the transaction.
Specifically, the wind curtailment rate before trading is calculated by equation (7):
Wherein r is c Representing a wind curtailment rate before the transaction; p wg Representing the actual wind power consumption electric quantity; p ww Representing the wind power value before correction; p ww -P wg Representing the amount of curtailed wind before the transaction.
And step S3024, limiting the range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction, and determining the minimum region of the power generation right transaction according to the limited range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction.
Specifically, the range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction is limited, and in the limited range of the given wind curtailment rate, the region with the highest probability density is searched, and the time and the wind power output range in the probability value range are obtained in an accumulated mode.
Step S3026, in the minimum area of the power generation right transaction, determining a time period range and a wind-power output range during the power generation right transaction according to the lower limit of the wind-power probability value before correction, the lower limit of the wind curtailment rate before transaction, and the lower limit of the total wind-power probability value.
Specifically, the time period range and the wind power output range at the time of the power generation right transaction are determined by formula (8):
wherein alpha represents the lower limit of the wind abandon rate before the transaction; beta represents the lower limit of the wind power probability value before correction; δ represents the lower limit of the total wind power probability value; 
Representing a probability value.
Wherein the boundary of the region omega should be a function
The curve shown can make the solved region omega be a continuous closed interval by selecting proper alpha, beta and delta parameters. By a search method of a computer, a time period range and a wind power output range when the power generation right is traded can be determined.
And step S304, establishing the random production simulation model of the time-interval and regional areas according to the time-interval range and the wind power output range.
Specifically, according to the time interval range and the wind power output range during the power generation right transaction determined in step S302, the final time interval [ t ] of the power generation right transaction is obtained by referring to formula (9) o ,t c ]And wind power output interval
Is selected as
Therefore, in the time period range, when the wind power output is in the range shown by the formula (9), the reserve of the self-supply power plant is larger than that of the self-supply power plant
And part of the electric quantity is used for finishing the establishment of the random production simulation model in different time periods and different regions.
It should be understood that, although the steps in the flowchart of fig. 2 are shown in order as indicated by the arrows, the steps are not necessarily performed in order as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not performed in the exact order shown and described, and may be performed in other orders, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Moreover, at least a portion of the steps in fig. 2 may include multiple sub-steps or multiple stages that are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, and the order of performance of the sub-steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but may be performed in turn or alternately with other steps or at least a portion of the sub-steps or stages of other steps.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 6, there is provided a power generation right transaction effect evaluation device, including: a wind power probability curve correction module 401, a post-transaction abandoned wind power calculation module 402 and an evaluation module 403, wherein:
a wind power probability curve modification module 401, configured to modify a wind power probability curve through an evaluation model to obtain a plurality of modified wind power values and a plurality of modified wind power probability values;
a wind power abandoning amount calculation module 402 after the transaction, configured to calculate a wind power abandoning amount after the transaction according to the corrected plurality of wind power values and the corrected plurality of wind power probability values;
and the evaluation module 403 is configured to obtain an evaluation result according to the wind curtailment electric quantity before the transaction and the wind curtailment electric quantity after the transaction.
In one embodiment, the wind power probability curve modification module 401 is specifically configured to obtain parameters in a power generation right transaction process, where the parameters include transaction time, transaction power, and transaction start power; and correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model according to the parameters.
In one embodiment, the wind power probability curve modification module 401 is specifically configured to modify the wind power probability curves in the multiple power generation right transaction areas respectively according to the parameters to obtain multiple modified wind power probability curves; and performing probability convolution operation on the plurality of corrected wind power probability curves to finish the correction of the wind power probability curves by the evaluation model.
In one embodiment, the wind power probability curve modification module 401 is specifically configured to divide each power generation right transaction area into a plurality of time periods according to a time period to obtain a wind power probability curve corresponding to each time period; and obtaining the wind power probability curve in the power generation right trading area according to a plurality of wind power probability curves corresponding to each time interval.
In one embodiment, the post-transaction abandoned wind power amount calculation module 402 is specifically configured to obtain an expected value of the post-transaction abandoned wind power amount according to the corrected multiple wind power values; and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction by a random production simulation method according to the expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction and the corrected multiple wind power probability values.
In one embodiment, the system further includes a pre-transaction abandoned wind power amount calculation module 404, configured to calculate a pre-transaction abandoned wind power amount, specifically, perform probability distribution on a load power value in a preset period, to obtain a total power load of the whole grid; the total amount of the power load is consumed through a thermal power unit to obtain a first residual load amount; the first residual load is consumed through a wind turbine generator set to obtain a second residual load; and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction according to the wind power probability curve and the second residual load quantity.
In one embodiment, the before-transaction wind curtailment power calculation module 404 is specifically configured to perform probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain a power load maximum value and a load probability density function; obtaining an equivalent continuous load curve according to the maximum power load and the load probability density function; and discretizing the equivalent continuous load curve based on an equivalent electric quantity function method to obtain the total electric load of the whole network.
In one embodiment, the evaluation module 403 is specifically configured to compare the wind curtailment electric quantity before the transaction with the wind curtailment electric quantity after the transaction; and if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, evaluating the generation right transaction effect.
In one embodiment, the system further includes an evaluation model establishing module 405, configured to establish the evaluation model, specifically, to establish a stochastic production simulation model of a time-division partition.
In one embodiment, the evaluation model establishing module 405 is specifically configured to determine a time period range and a wind power output range during power generation right trading; and establishing a random production simulation model of the time-interval and regional division according to the time-interval range and the wind power output range.
In one embodiment, the evaluation model establishing module 405 is specifically configured to calculate a wind curtailment rate before a transaction according to the wind power value before correction and the wind curtailment electric quantity before the transaction; limiting the range of the wind abandoning rate before the transaction, and determining the minimum area of the power generation right transaction according to the limited range of the wind abandoning rate before the transaction; and in the minimum region of the power generation right transaction, determining a time period range and a wind power output range during the power generation right transaction according to the lower limit of the wind power probability value before correction, the lower limit of the wind abandon rate before transaction and the lower limit of the total wind power probability value.
For specific limitations of the power generation right trade effect evaluation apparatus, reference may be made to the above limitations on the power generation right trade effect evaluation method, which is not described herein again. Each module in the above power generation right transaction effect evaluation apparatus may be wholly or partially implemented by software, hardware, or a combination thereof. The modules can be embedded in a hardware form or independent from a processor in the computer device, and can also be stored in a memory in the computer device in a software form, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the modules.
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a server, and the internal structure thereof may be as shown in fig. 6. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface, and a database connected by a system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device comprises a nonvolatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program, and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer equipment is used for storing the power generation right transaction effect evaluation data. The network interface of the computer device is used for communicating with an external terminal through a network connection. The computer program is executed by a processor to realize a power generation right transaction effect evaluation method.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the architecture shown in fig. 6 is merely a block diagram of some of the structures associated with the disclosed aspects and is not intended to limit the computing devices to which the disclosed aspects apply, as particular computing devices may include more or less components than those shown, or may combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, comprising a memory and a processor, the memory having a computer program stored therein, the processor implementing the following steps when executing the computer program:
correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values;
calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values;
and obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: acquiring parameters in a power generation right transaction process, wherein the parameters comprise transaction time, transaction power and transaction starting power; and correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model according to the parameters.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: respectively correcting the wind power probability curves in the multiple power generation right trading areas according to the parameters to obtain multiple corrected wind power probability curves; and performing probability convolution operation on the plurality of corrected wind power probability curves to finish the correction of the wind power probability curves by the evaluation model.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: dividing each power generation right transaction area into a plurality of time intervals according to a time cycle to obtain a wind power probability curve corresponding to each time interval; and obtaining the wind power probability curve in the power generation right trading area according to a plurality of wind power probability curves corresponding to each time interval.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: obtaining an expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected plurality of wind power values; and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction by a random production simulation method according to the expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction and the corrected multiple wind power probability values.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole network; the total amount of the power load is consumed through a thermal power unit to obtain a first residual load amount; the first residual load is consumed through a wind turbine generator set to obtain a second residual load; and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction according to the wind power probability curve and the second residual load quantity.
In one embodiment, the processor when executing the computer program further performs the steps of: carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain a maximum power load value and a load probability density function; obtaining an equivalent continuous load curve according to the maximum power load and the load probability density function; and discretizing the equivalent continuous load curve based on an equivalent electric quantity function method to obtain the total electric load of the whole network.
In one embodiment, the processor when executing the computer program further performs the steps of: segmenting the thermal power generating unit to obtain a base load unit and a peak load unit; sequencing the base charge unit and the peak charge unit respectively according to the sequence of the coal consumption rate from low to high to obtain a base charge sequence and a peak charge sequence; the total amount of the power load is consumed through the base load sequence to obtain the residual load amount of the base load; and the residual basic load is consumed through the peak load sequence to obtain the first residual load.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: comparing the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction with the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction; and if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, evaluating the generation right transaction effect.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: establishing the evaluation model, including: and establishing a random production simulation model with time and region division.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: determining a time interval range and a wind power output range during power generation right transaction; and establishing a random production simulation model of the time-interval and regional division according to the time-interval range and the wind power output range.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of: calculating to obtain the wind abandoning rate before the transaction according to the wind power value before the correction and the wind abandoning electric quantity before the transaction; limiting the range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction, and determining the minimum region of the power generation right transaction according to the limited range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction; and in the minimum region of the power generation right transaction, determining a time period range and a wind-electricity output range during the power generation right transaction according to the lower limit of the wind-electricity probability value before correction, the lower limit of the wind curtailment rate before transaction and the lower limit of the total wind-electricity probability value.
In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, having a computer program stored thereon, which when executed by a processor, performs the steps of:
Correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values;
calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected wind power values and the corrected wind power probability values;
and obtaining an evaluation result according to the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction and the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: acquiring parameters in a power generation right transaction process, wherein the parameters comprise transaction time, transaction power and transaction starting power; and correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model according to the parameters.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: respectively correcting the wind power probability curves in the multiple power generation right trading areas according to the parameters to obtain multiple corrected wind power probability curves; and performing probability convolution operation on the plurality of corrected wind power probability curves to finish the correction of the wind power probability curves by the evaluation model.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: dividing each power generation right transaction area into a plurality of time intervals according to a time cycle to obtain a wind power probability curve corresponding to each time interval; and obtaining the wind power probability curve in the power generation right trading area according to a plurality of wind power probability curves corresponding to each time interval.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: obtaining an expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction according to the corrected plurality of wind power values; and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction by a random production simulation method according to the expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction and the corrected multiple wind power probability values.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole network; the total amount of the power load is consumed through a thermal power unit to obtain a first residual load amount; the first residual load is consumed through a wind turbine generator set to obtain a second residual load; and calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction according to the wind power probability curve and the second residual load quantity.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain a maximum power load value and a load probability density function; obtaining an equivalent continuous load curve according to the maximum power load and the load probability density function; and discretizing the equivalent continuous load curve based on an equivalent electric quantity function method to obtain the total electric load of the whole network.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: segmenting the thermal power generating unit to obtain a base load unit and a peak load unit; sequencing the base charge unit and the peak charge unit respectively according to the sequence of the coal consumption rate from low to high to obtain a base charge sequence and a peak charge sequence; the total amount of the power load is consumed through the base load sequence to obtain the residual load amount of the base load; and the residual basic load is consumed through the peak load sequence to obtain the first residual load.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: comparing the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction with the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction; and if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, evaluating the generation right transaction effect.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by a processor implements the steps of: establishing the evaluation model, including: and establishing a random production simulation model with time and region division.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: determining a time interval range and a wind power output range during power generation right transaction; and establishing a random production simulation model of the time-interval and regional division according to the time-interval range and the wind power output range.
In one embodiment, the computer program when executed by the processor implements the steps of: calculating to obtain the wind abandoning rate before the transaction according to the wind power value before the correction and the wind abandoning electric quantity before the transaction; limiting the range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction, and determining the minimum region of the power generation right transaction according to the limited range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction; and in the minimum region of the power generation right transaction, determining a time period range and a wind-electricity output range during the power generation right transaction according to the lower limit of the wind-electricity probability value before correction, the lower limit of the wind curtailment rate before transaction and the lower limit of the total wind-electricity probability value.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by hardware instructions of a computer program, which can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, storage, database, or other medium used in the embodiments provided herein may include non-volatile and/or volatile memory, among others. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), Programmable ROM (PROM), Electrically Programmable ROM (EPROM), Electrically Erasable Programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory. Volatile memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in a variety of forms such as Static RAM (SRAM), Dynamic RAM (DRAM), Synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), Double Data Rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), Enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), Synchronous Link DRAM (SLDRAM), Rambus Direct RAM (RDRAM), direct bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM).
The technical features of the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described, but should be considered as the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present application, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, which falls within the scope of protection of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A power generation right transaction effect evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values; the evaluation model is a random production simulation model established in time-sharing and zoning modes, and the random production simulation model is obtained through the following steps: calculating to obtain the wind abandoning rate before transaction according to the wind power value before correction and the wind abandoning power value before transaction; limiting the range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction, and determining the minimum region of the power generation right transaction according to the limited range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction; in the minimum region of the power generation right transaction, determining a time period range and a wind power output range during the power generation right transaction according to the lower limit of the wind power probability value before correction, the lower limit of the wind abandon rate before transaction and the lower limit of the total wind power probability value; establishing a random production simulation model of the time-interval and regional areas according to the time-interval range and the wind power output range;
Obtaining an expected value of the abandoned wind power quantity after the transaction according to the corrected plurality of wind power values;
calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction by a random production simulation method according to the expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction and the corrected multiple wind power probability values;
carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole network;
the total amount of the power load is consumed through a thermal power unit to obtain a first residual load amount;
the first residual load is consumed through a wind turbine generator set to obtain a second residual load;
calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction according to the wind power probability curve and the second residual load quantity;
and if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, evaluating the generation right transaction effect.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the modifying the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model comprises:
acquiring parameters in a power generation right transaction process, wherein the parameters comprise transaction time, transaction power and transaction starting power;
and correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model according to the parameters.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the modifying the wind power probability curve according to the parameters by the evaluation model comprises:
respectively correcting the wind power probability curves in the multiple power generation right trading areas according to the parameters to obtain multiple corrected wind power probability curves;
and performing probability convolution operation on the plurality of corrected wind power probability curves to finish the correction of the wind power probability curves by the evaluation model.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the modifying the wind power probability curves in the plurality of power generation right trading regions respectively according to the parameters to obtain a plurality of modified wind power probability curves comprises:
dividing each power generation right transaction area into a plurality of time intervals according to a time cycle to obtain a wind power probability curve corresponding to each time interval;
and obtaining the wind power probability curve in the power generation right trading area according to a plurality of wind power probability curves corresponding to each time interval.
5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the performing probability distribution on the load power values in the preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole grid comprises:
Carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain a power load maximum value and a load probability density function;
obtaining an equivalent continuous load curve according to the maximum power load and the load probability density function;
and discretizing the equivalent continuous load curve based on an equivalent electric quantity function method to obtain the total electric load of the whole network.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein said absorbing said total amount of electrical load by a thermal power unit comprises:
segmenting the thermal power generating unit to obtain a base load unit and a peak load unit;
sequencing the base charge unit and the peak charge unit respectively according to the sequence of the coal consumption rate from low to high to obtain a base charge sequence and a peak charge sequence;
the total amount of the power load is consumed through the base load sequence to obtain the residual load amount of the base load;
and the residual basic load is consumed through the peak load sequence to obtain the first residual load.
7. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
and if the electricity abandoning amount before the transaction is lower than the electricity abandoning amount after the transaction, evaluating the electricity generation right transaction without generating an effect.
8. An electricity generation right transaction effect evaluation apparatus, characterized in that the apparatus comprises:
the wind power probability curve correction module is used for correcting the wind power probability curve through the evaluation model to obtain a plurality of corrected wind power values and a plurality of corrected wind power probability values; the evaluation model is a random production simulation model established in time-sharing and zoning modes, and the random production simulation model is obtained through the following steps: calculating to obtain the wind abandoning rate before transaction according to the wind power value before correction and the wind abandoning power value before transaction; limiting the range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction, and determining the minimum region of the power generation right transaction according to the limited range of the wind curtailment rate before the transaction; in the minimum region of the power generation right transaction, determining a time period range and a wind power output range during the power generation right transaction according to the lower limit of the wind power probability value before correction, the lower limit of the wind abandon rate before transaction and the lower limit of the total wind power probability value; establishing a random production simulation model of the time-interval and regional areas according to the time-interval range and the wind power output range;
the transacted abandoned wind power calculation module is used for obtaining an expected value of the transacted abandoned wind power according to the corrected multiple wind power values; calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction by a random production simulation method according to the expected value of the abandoned wind electric quantity after the transaction and the corrected multiple wind power probability values; carrying out probability distribution on the load power values in a preset period to obtain the total power load of the whole network; the total amount of the power load is consumed through a thermal power unit to obtain a first residual load amount; the first residual load is consumed through a wind turbine generator set to obtain a second residual load; calculating the abandoned wind electric quantity before the transaction according to the wind power probability curve and the second residual load quantity;
And the evaluation module is used for evaluating the generation right transaction effect if the wind abandoning amount before the transaction is higher than the wind abandoning amount after the transaction.
9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, wherein the processor implements the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
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