CN110222865A - A kind of prediction technique and its system of Maximum wind speed - Google Patents

A kind of prediction technique and its system of Maximum wind speed Download PDF

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Publication number
CN110222865A
CN110222865A CN201910343594.9A CN201910343594A CN110222865A CN 110222865 A CN110222865 A CN 110222865A CN 201910343594 A CN201910343594 A CN 201910343594A CN 110222865 A CN110222865 A CN 110222865A
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China
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wind speed
wind
speed
data
storm
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CN201910343594.9A
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Inventor
王飞
杨风利
韩军科
张宏杰
黄国
汪长智
刘海峰
朱彬荣
张子富
胡晓光
黄耀
张姝俊
许军
翁兰溪
周刚
林德元
韩纪层
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co Ltd
PowerChina Fujian Electric Power Engineering Co Ltd
Original Assignee
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co Ltd
PowerChina Fujian Electric Power Engineering Co Ltd
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Priority to CN201910343594.9A priority Critical patent/CN110222865A/en
Publication of CN110222865A publication Critical patent/CN110222865A/en
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"

Abstract

A kind of prediction technique and its system of Maximum wind speed, the wind speed type in the area is determined based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;The parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula is set according to wind speed type, air speed data;The wind speed during prediction is calculated based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;Prediction of extremum is carried out to different wind speed types, structure design can be allowed relatively reliable rationally, moreover it is possible to improve the service life of design.

Description

A kind of prediction technique and its system of Maximum wind speed
Technical field
The present invention relates to Wind load calculatings and field of structural design, and in particular to a kind of prediction technique of Maximum wind speed and its System.
Background technique
The fluctuation range of wind load is big and occurrence frequency is high, and the broken activity of earthquake is stronger but its occurrence frequency is lower. All in all, the two is substantially suitable to the damage capability of works.Therefore, wind load is to cause to damage to works with seismic (seismal The big main environment load of bad two, it can be seen that the calculating of wind load has consequence in structure design.Wind load meter Can be regarded as structure design in important unit, how reasonably to determine that design wind speed is then in core composition in Wind load calculating Hold.The wind speed such as Different climate condition, area have biggish difference, cause many difficulties to the determination of design wind speed.
In the 1930s, people are distributed to predict Maximum wind speed using symmetrical bell-shaped Gaussian, the method is based on parent The tail portion of distribution establishes the limit mode of maximum (or minimum) value probability distribution of given sample, with Fisher and Tippett The research of early stage has biggish difference.The discovery of three types the extreme value distribution rule has also greatly pushed common engineering probability The development of method.Jenkinson thinks that 3 kinds of the extreme value distributions that Fisher and Tippett are proposed can use unified generalized extreme value Distribution is to express.Gumbel is then highly recommended using relatively simple extremum I distributing and is carried out relevant analysis.
In the 1960s, some countries using extreme value analysis method come predictive designs wind speed, mainly using extreme value type I Distribution, return period concept also propose in this period.A.G.Davenport the 1960s using Probability Statistics Theory as Important contribution is made that on the basis of modern wind load.
20th century 70 to the eighties tropical cyclone of Australia's generation is obtained using Gumbel approximating method and Europe is sent out A series of raw high wind wind speed are far beyond fitting result, so that the content in terms of following two seems particularly important:
Generally there are the influences of sampling error for sample data in (1) 50 year.
(2) data classification is carried out according to different storm types.
There are certain differences for different local climate conditions, might have multiple storm phenomenon within the scope of 1 year and go out Existing, coastal area frequency of occurrence is likely more obviously.Therefore, only choosing maximum wind velocity is that the method that sample carries out extreme value analysis is deposited In biggish limitation.If increasing sample size using the period more shorter than year, this may violate extreme value analysis The independent statistics of kind data.For example, being that just not can guarantee within one day this important item of the statistical independence of extreme value sample with the period Part.Therefore it is designed that there are limitations using single wind speed.
Summary of the invention
In order to solve the limitation being designed in the prior art using single wind speed, the present invention considers different wind Fast condition, and the relationship of different wind friction velocity lower return periods and wind speed can be obtained, design wind speed determining in Wind load calculating is mentioned For reference, therefore the present invention provides the prediction techniques and its system of a kind of coastal area Maximum wind speed.
Present invention provide the technical scheme that
A kind of prediction technique of Maximum wind speed, which comprises
The wind speed type in the area is determined based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;
The parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula is set according to wind speed type, air speed data;
The wind speed during prediction is calculated based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;
Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
The wind speed type includes: weather wind and typhoon.
Preferably, the air speed data based on prediction of wind speed area determines wind speed type, comprising:
Obtain the air speed data in the prediction of wind speed area;
It is compared based on air speed data same day meteorological diagram corresponding with the air speed data;
The wind speed type of the air speed value is determined based on the comparing result.
It is preferably, described to select Maximum wind speed from the wind speed calculated result, comprising:
If there are a kind of wind speed in the prediction area, Maximum wind speed directly is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
If there are a variety of wind speed in the prediction area, every kind of wind speed accounting specific gravity is calculated based on air speed data, is based on institute It states specific gravity result and selects Maximum wind speed from the wind speed calculated result.
Preferably, described that the parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula is set according to wind speed type, air speed data, packet It includes:
Storm data are selected from air speed data, and are based on the storm data calculation of wind speed average value;
The scale factor and shape system numerical value of the predictor formula that storm reappears are determined based on the wind speed average value;
Wherein, the scale factor and shape system numerical value are the parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula.
Preferably, described that storm data are selected from air speed data, and it is based on the storm data calculation of wind speed average value, Include:
Based on the wind speed type, minimum basic air speed value is set;
M basic air speed value is obtained based on the minimum basic air speed value and preset m-1 step-length;
Based on each basic air speed value, select the air speed data for being greater than the basic air speed value as institute from air speed data The corresponding storm data of basic air speed value are stated, and calculate the difference of each storm data and the basic wind speed, and then according to institute Some differences obtain the corresponding wind speed average value of the basic wind speed.
Preferably, the ratio that predictor formula that the storm that pre-establishes reappears is determined based on the wind speed average value because Son and shape system numerical value, comprising:
The m group wind speed average value determined based on m basic air speed value draws curve graph;
Slope value and values of intercept based on the curve graph calculated curve;
Expression formula based on the slope value and values of intercept and the content ratio factor and the expression formula containing form factor, Determine scale factor and shape system numerical value.
Preferably, the predictor formula that the storm reappears is as follows:
Vr=v0+a[1-(nr-b)]/b
In formula, VrFor the wind speed of time span of forecast r, r is in (1, R) section;R is storm time span of forecast;B is form factor;a For scale factor;v0For minimum basic air speed value;N is the storm number based on minimum basic air speed value.
Preferably, the expression formula containing form factor is as follows:
In formula, b is form factor.
Preferably, the expression formula of the content ratio factor is as follows:
In formula, a is scale factor;B is form factor.
A kind of forecasting system of Maximum wind speed, the system comprises:
Determining module: for determining the wind speed type in the area based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;
Setting module: for being set according to wind speed type, air speed data to the parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula;
Computing module: for calculating the wind speed during prediction based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;
Selecting module: Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
The wind speed type includes: weather wind and typhoon.
Preferably, first determining module, comprising: acquiring unit, comparison unit and determination unit;
The acquiring unit, for obtaining the air speed data in the prediction of wind speed area;
The comparison unit, for being carried out based on air speed data same day meteorological diagram corresponding with the air speed data Comparison;
The determination unit, for determining the wind speed type of the air speed value based on the comparing result.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the benefit that
1, technical solution provided by the invention determines the wind speed class in the area based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area Type;The parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula is set according to wind speed type, air speed data;Based on setting the sudden and violent of parameter Wind return period wind speed formula calculates the wind speed during prediction;Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;To different Wind speed type carries out prediction of extremum, structure design can be allowed relatively reliable rationally, moreover it is possible to improve the service life of design.
2, technical solution provided by the invention, using the difference of different regions weather conditions as starting point, and can be reasonable The unified consideration of a variety of wind conditions can be realized to be suitable for different application environments to weather wind and typhoon well Unify the prediction under considering under the prediction of completion Maximum wind speed and weather wind and typhoon wind friction velocity under wind conditions.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the prediction technique structural schematic diagram of coastal area Maximum wind speed of the invention;
Fig. 2 is wind speed and return period curve of the invention.
Specific embodiment
For a better understanding of the present invention, the contents of the present invention are done further with example with reference to the accompanying drawings of the specification Explanation.
Embodiment 1:
There are certain differences for different local climate conditions, might have multiple storm phenomenon within the scope of 1 year and go out Existing, coastal area frequency of occurrence is likely more obviously.Therefore, only choosing maximum wind velocity is that the method that sample carries out extreme value analysis is deposited In biggish limitation.If increasing sample size using the period more shorter than year, this may violate extreme value analysis The independent statistics of kind data.For example, being that just not can guarantee within one day this important item of the statistical independence of extreme value sample with the period Part." surmounting value method " is a kind of method only with data relevant to prediction of extremum.It uses all wind speed both be from Relatively independent storm, and it is above a specific minimum critical wind speed v0, this wind speed may have in 1 year it is multiple, Possible one does not all have.This method provides a kind of new thinking to solve above-mentioned limitation.It can by surmounting value method In view of different wind friction velocities, and the relationship of different wind friction velocity lower return periods and wind speed can be obtained.To in Wind load calculating Determine that design wind speed provides reference.Wind load is that air is flowed to pressure caused by engineering structure, size and wind speed it is flat Side is directly proportional.
As shown in Figure 1, steps are as follows:
Step 1: the wind speed type in the area is determined based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;
Step 2: the parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula is set according to wind speed type, air speed data;
Step 3: the wind speed during prediction is calculated based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;
Step 4: Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
It is embodied as follows:
Step 1: the wind speed type in the area is determined based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;
Data screening.According to the air speed data in database, and separates name and save.
Data source classification.The value of above-mentioned statistics and the data of same day meteorological diagram are checked, confirm the air speed value It is generated by typhoon or weather wind, and by two kinds of wind speed type cases Classifying Sums.
Integrate multistation point data.Their unifications are arranged make good wind and typhoon two by the data of sorting-out in statistics website respectively Class.
Wind speed amendment.For the influence for excluding other disturbing factors, the modifying factor of each website is obtained by wind tunnel test, it will Weather wind data is corrected to the wind speed of open field at 10m.
Step 2: the parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula is set according to wind speed type, air speed data;
Wind speed basic value is set.According to the wind conditions and design requirement of this area, wind speed several different is set It is worth based on value, it is denoted as v respectively0, v1, v2Deng.
Determine minimum windspeed v0With minimum storm frequency n.Referring to design experiences, a minimum windspeed v is set0It is every Year surmounts value, and this value is compared with all values, obtains minimum storm frequency n.
Calculation of wind speed deviation and overgauge mean value.By the basic value v of the wind speed under different storms and setting0Carry out wind speed Difference calculates (V-v0), it selects positive wind speed deviation and calculates average value.
It repeats the above steps.By basic value v0Successively it is substituted for v1, v2Deng, calculate corresponding storm number λ, difference and Positive mean value.
Draw line chart.According to it is being calculated above as a result, between drawing basics value and average degree of transcendence relationship song Line chart.
Determine scale factor a and form factor b.Pass through following formula:
Step 3: the wind speed during prediction is calculated based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;
Return period is the wind speed V of RRFor
VR=v0+a[1-(nR)-b]/b (1-2)
In formula (1-2), form factor b is usually positive value (0.1 or so).When R is gradually increased to very big, VRIt is upper Limit then gradually levels off to v0+(a/b)。
When b=0, substituting into formula (1-2) can be obtained
VR=v0+aln(nR) (1-3)
Step 4: Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
According to above-mentioned formula, relatively independent storm can be calculated and be judged, but be not difficult to find out in formula, (1-2) and (1-3) has certain similitude.In order to guarantee the accuracy calculated, when maximum critical wind velocity is arranged, should at least protect It demonstrate,proves 10 times and the above wind speed is greater than maximum critical wind velocity.According to above-mentioned the characteristics of surmounting value method, in addition to can satisfy traditional pole The reproduction of value wind speed is gone except being predicted, additionally it is possible to according to the prediction for carrying out mixing wind the characteristics of the wind speed of different regions, according to this Which kind of Maximum wind speed is method can use as design wind speed, between different regions according to regional wind speed accounting specific gravity to determine The design of optimization and the rationalization of structure provides new thinking.
In the prediction for Maximum wind speed, mutually independent data are all made of during prediction.It is accurate for prediction Property, the wind speed used is both needed to wind speed at the beginning of amendment goes out open field to 10m.Using the present invention, can accurately predict not With the Maximum wind speed under wind friction velocity.
The wind conditions that different areas is faced also have larger difference, when carrying out structure design, only consider a certain leading The wind speed of effect is possible to will cause some problems.Using the present invention, on the one hand single Maximum wind speed can be carried out accurate On the other hand prediction can also comprehensively consider the different wind friction velocities faced, provide for structure design and more fully refer to.
According to the design requirement of different regions, the present invention provides one more comprehensively for the calculating of structure designed wind load Its Extreme Value Wind Prediction method.Can be according to the wind speed feature of different regions, choosing single mainly wind speed, can also as design wind speed Multiple wind speed are comprehensively considered as design wind speed.
For a wide range of design of wind speed environments complexity, can use the contents of the present invention, carry out under wind friction velocity into Row gradient distribution, Scoped design, being capable of more effectively save the cost.Such as southeastern coast somewhere, mainly occur to be weather wind And typhoon.Large area can be involved using typhoon forecast Maximum wind speed Method of Spreading Design in coastal typhoon according to the demand of design;And Mixing wind speed completion wind load calculating can be used involving smaller part then according to typhoon;It is more from far-off regions then can be with weather wind extreme value Wind speed is foundation.
Embodiment 2:
The Data Summary of each website in the coastal area table 1-1
According to the introduction and mentality of designing of the above method, the simulation application of this method is carried out to Chinse Coastal Area.China Coastal area belongs to the maritime monsoon climate in typical subtropical zone close to the tropic of cancer.Its climatic characteristic be temperature it is higher and Dry, no severe cold, the summer lacks heat, and Water Resources are abundant.Due to the influence of locating geographical environment and weather, the ground disaster day Gas is frequent, and the disasters caused by a windstorm such as typhoon also occur often.In Area In The Coast of Southeast China, maximum wind velocity generally occurs in weather wind and platform Wind passes through under two ways.Since nineteen fifty, daily in 4 of Area In The Coast of Southeast China different website separate records Fitful wind size is denoted as website 1,2,3,4 respectively.The airspeedometer of this four websites is all positioned in the lesser open field of interference, solely Vertical work.It is shown by data for many years, wind speed is very low (average greater than the ratio that each website of the typhoon of 21m/s occurs It is about 1 time annual), it is shown in Table 1-1, this data illustrates that the appearance of typhoon can not necessarily bring extreme value fitful wind.Table 1-2 is for southeastern coast The maximum wind velocity of area's record, the accounting example generally left and right generated by typhoon.
The maximum wind velocity of table 1-2 coastal area of southeastern China somewhere 1950-1999 record
Carry out the extreme value analysis of data below, main shown in steps are as follows:
(1) data screening.According to the air speed data in database, air speed value of the statistical data greater than 21m/s is simultaneously separated Name saves.
(2) data source is classified.The value of above-mentioned statistics and the data of same day meteorological diagram are checked, confirm the wind speed Value is generated by typhoon or weather wind, and by two kinds of wind speed type cases Classifying Sums.
(3) multistation point data is integrated.They are uniformly organized by sorting-out in statistics a, b, c, the data of tetra- websites of d respectively Two class of weather wind and typhoon.
(4) wind speed is corrected.For the influence for excluding other disturbing factors, the modifying factor of each website is obtained by wind tunnel test Son corrects weather wind data to the wind speed of open field at 10m.
(5) data are analyzed.According to summarizing acquired results.It analyzes " surmounting value ", return period two types wind speed can be obtained Between relationship.
(6) formula (1-2) is determined:
VR=v0+a[1-(nR)-b]/b (1-3)
Wherein a --- scale factor;
B --- form parameter;
v0--- basic value, southeastern coast somewhere this select wind speed for 21m/s;
N --- annual wind speed is more than v after integrating the data of weather wind and typhoon0Fitful wind proportion mean value.
The data analysis result of the two kinds of wind in southeastern coast somewhere is as follows:
For weather wind, n takes 23.4, obtains
For typhoon, n takes 0.97, obtains
A certain Maximum wind speed is given, then it is R that the return period can be obtained according to formula1And R2Different wind regime combination under weight Current Rc, it is as follows:
It can be set up when the Maximum wind speed of (1-6) based on two kinds of different wind regime is mutually indepedent in formula.
According to formula (1-6), formula (1-4) and (1-5) are substituted into the joint that can be obtained two kinds of wind and surmount a certain given wind speed Probability, as a result as follows:
In conjunction with the above content analyzed and calculate, by formula (1-5), (1-6) and (1-7) is drawn in Fig. 2.As shown in Figure 2, Weather wind intersected at substantially 30 years return periods with typhoon;It mixes curve early period wind speed return period and weather wind is close, but it is poor Away from gradually widening, in long return period section gradually close to typhoon, last difference very little.
Embodiment 3:
Based on same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a kind of forecasting system of Maximum wind speed, the system comprises:
Determining module: for determining the wind speed type in the area based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;
Setting module: for being set according to wind speed type, air speed data to the parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula;
Computing module: for calculating the wind speed during prediction based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;
Selecting module: Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
The wind speed type includes: weather wind and typhoon.
First determining module, comprising: acquiring unit, comparison unit and determination unit;
The acquiring unit, for obtaining the air speed data in the prediction of wind speed area;
The comparison unit, for being carried out based on air speed data same day meteorological diagram corresponding with the air speed data Comparison;
The determination unit, for determining the wind speed type of the air speed value based on the comparing result.
Obviously, described embodiments are some of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on the present invention In embodiment, all other implementation obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts Example, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can provide as method, system or computer program Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the application, which can be used in one or more, The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces The form of product.
The application is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates, Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
The above is only the embodiment of the present invention, are not intended to restrict the invention, all in the spirit and principles in the present invention Within, any modification, equivalent substitution, improvement and etc. done, be all contained in apply pending scope of the presently claimed invention it It is interior.

Claims (11)

1. a kind of prediction technique of Maximum wind speed, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
The wind speed type in the area is determined based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;
The parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula is set according to wind speed type, air speed data;
The wind speed during prediction is calculated based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;
Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
The wind speed type includes: weather wind and typhoon.
2. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the wind based on prediction of wind speed area Fast data determine wind speed type, comprising:
Obtain the air speed data in the prediction of wind speed area;
It is compared based on air speed data same day meteorological diagram corresponding with the air speed data;
The wind speed type of the air speed value is determined based on the comparing result.
3. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described from the wind speed calculated result Select Maximum wind speed, comprising:
If there are a kind of wind speed in the prediction area, Maximum wind speed directly is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
If there are a variety of wind speed in the prediction area, every kind of wind speed accounting specific gravity is calculated based on air speed data, is based on the ratio Wind speed type is determined again, using the corresponding wind speed calculated result of the wind speed type as Maximum wind speed.
4. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described according to wind speed type, wind speed number It is set according to the parameter to storm wind return period wind speed formula, comprising:
Storm data are selected from air speed data, and are based on the storm data calculation of wind speed average value;
The scale factor and shape system numerical value of the predictor formula that storm reappears are determined based on the wind speed average value;
Wherein, the parameter of the storm wind return period wind speed formula are as follows: scale factor and form factor.
5. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that described to select storm from air speed data Data, and it is based on the storm data calculation of wind speed average value, comprising:
Based on the wind speed type, minimum basic air speed value is set;
M basic air speed value is obtained based on the minimum basic air speed value and preset m-1 step-length;
Based on each basic air speed value, select the air speed data for being greater than the basic air speed value as the base from air speed data The corresponding storm data of plinth air speed value, and the difference of each storm data and the basic wind speed is calculated, and then according to all Difference obtains the corresponding wind speed average value of the basic wind speed.
6. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as claimed in claim 5, which is characterized in that described true based on the wind speed average value Surely the scale factor and shape system numerical value for the predictor formula that the storm pre-established reappears, comprising:
The m group wind speed average value determined based on m basic air speed value draws curve graph;
Slope value and values of intercept based on the curve graph calculated curve;
Expression formula based on the slope value and values of intercept and the content ratio factor and the expression formula containing form factor determine Scale factor and shape system numerical value.
7. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that the predictor formula that the storm reappears is such as Under:
Vr=v0+a[1-(nr-b)]/b
In formula, VrFor the wind speed of time span of forecast r, r is in (1 ..., R) range;R is storm time span of forecast;B is form factor;A is Scale factor;v0For minimum basic air speed value;N is the storm number based on minimum basic air speed value.
8. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that the expression formula containing form factor It is as follows:
In formula, b is form factor.
9. the prediction technique of Maximum wind speed as claimed in claim 8, which is characterized in that the expression formula of the content ratio factor It is as follows:
In formula, a is scale factor;B is form factor.
10. a kind of forecasting system of Maximum wind speed, which is characterized in that the system comprises:
Determining module: for determining the wind speed type in the area based on the air speed data in prediction of wind speed area;
Setting module: for being set according to wind speed type, air speed data to the parameter of storm wind return period wind speed formula;
Computing module: for calculating the wind speed during prediction based on the storm wind return period wind speed formula for setting parameter;
Selecting module: Maximum wind speed is selected from the wind speed calculated result;
The wind speed type includes: weather wind and typhoon.
11. the forecasting system of Maximum wind speed as claimed in claim 10, which is characterized in that the determining module, comprising: obtain Unit, comparison unit and determination unit;
The acquiring unit, for obtaining the air speed data in the prediction of wind speed area;
The comparison unit, for being carried out pair based on air speed data same day meteorological diagram corresponding with the air speed data Than;
The determination unit, for determining the wind speed type of the air speed value based on the comparing result.
CN201910343594.9A 2019-04-26 2019-04-26 A kind of prediction technique and its system of Maximum wind speed Pending CN110222865A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116151042A (en) * 2023-04-20 2023-05-23 天津市特种设备监督检验技术研究院(天津市特种设备事故应急调查处理中心) Crane monitoring and maintaining method and system based on multidimensional data analysis

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CN116151042A (en) * 2023-04-20 2023-05-23 天津市特种设备监督检验技术研究院(天津市特种设备事故应急调查处理中心) Crane monitoring and maintaining method and system based on multidimensional data analysis

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