CN110210676A - The long-term prediction of situation method and system of transmission line forest fire - Google Patents
The long-term prediction of situation method and system of transmission line forest fire Download PDFInfo
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- CN110210676A CN110210676A CN201910491610.9A CN201910491610A CN110210676A CN 110210676 A CN110210676 A CN 110210676A CN 201910491610 A CN201910491610 A CN 201910491610A CN 110210676 A CN110210676 A CN 110210676A
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Abstract
The present invention relates to electrical engineering technical fields, disclose a kind of long-term prediction of situation method and system of transmission line forest fire, and the long-term prediction of situation of mountain fire to realize transmission line of electricity provides important scientific basis to formulate reasonable mountain fire diaster prevention and control planning；The method comprise the steps that collecting the mountain fire fire point information and the corresponding meteorological element data of mountain fire fire point information of historical years；Using correlation analysis, several crucial meteorological element data with mountain fire fire point information strong correlation are filtered out from meteorological element data；The long-term prediction of situation model of mountain fire is obtained according to mountain fire fire point information and crucial meteorological element data, according to the long-term long-term prediction of situation of prediction of situation model realization transmission line forest fire of mountain fire.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electrical engineering technical field more particularly to a kind of long-term prediction of situation method of transmission line forest fire and
System.
Background technique
Mountain fire disaster is to influence one of the most important disaster of electric power netting safe running in recent years, with UHV transmission line
Large scale construction and put into operation, the requirement to mountain fire diaster prevention and control is higher and higher.But existing mountain fire diaster prevention and control system is also
Current needs can not be adapted to, there is an urgent need to carry out the Secular Variation Tendency prediction of transmission line forest fire generation, instruct configuration section
Mountain fire diaster prevention and control planning system.Currently, in terms of mountain fire hazard prediction, the main spatial and temporal distributions rule by analysis mountain fire
Rule carries out correlation predictive to mountain fire density middle or short term, less to mountain fire long-term prediction of situation aspect research, it is difficult to effective guidance system
Fixed reasonable mountain fire control program.
Therefore, how to realize that the long-term prediction of situation of the mountain fire of transmission line of electricity becomes a urgent problem.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of that present invention to provide a kind of long-term prediction of situation method and system of transmission line forest fire, to realize power transmission line
The long-term prediction of situation of the mountain fire on road provides important scientific basis to formulate reasonable mountain fire diaster prevention and control planning.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a kind of long-term prediction of situation method of transmission line forest fire, including it is following
Step:
S1: the mountain fire fire point information and the corresponding meteorological element data of mountain fire fire point information of historical years are collected；
S2: correlation analysis is used, is filtered out from the meteorological element data and mountain fire fire point information strong correlation
Several crucial meteorological element data；
S4: the long-term prediction of situation mould of mountain fire is obtained according to the mountain fire fire point information and the crucial meteorological element data
Type, according to the long-term long-term prediction of situation of prediction of situation model realization transmission line forest fire of the mountain fire.
Preferably, it after the step S2, further comprises the steps of:
S3: the mountain fire fire point information and the crucial meteorological element data are pre-processed.
Preferably, the pretreatment is normalized.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the normalized are as follows:
In formula, FiNormalized element, S are needed for i-thiFor the element after i-th of normalization, min (Fi) it is i-th
The minimum value of element, max (Fi) be i-th of element maximum value.
Preferably, the meteorological element data include one of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric circulation, typhoon or any several
The combination of kind.
As a general technical idea, the present invention also provides a kind of long-term prediction of situation system of transmission line forest fire, packets
The computer program that includes memory, processor and storage on a memory and can run on a processor, the processor are held
The step of realizing the above method when row computer program.
The invention has the following advantages:
The present invention provides a kind of long-term prediction of situation method and system of transmission line forest fire, by transmission line of electricity history year
The mountain fire fire point information meteorological element data corresponding with the mountain fire fire point information of part are excavated, and the mountain of transmission line of electricity is able to achieve
The long-term prediction of situation of fire provides important scientific basis to formulate reasonable mountain fire diaster prevention and control planning.
Below with reference to accompanying drawings, the present invention is described in further detail.
Detailed description of the invention
The attached drawing constituted part of this application is used to provide further understanding of the present invention, schematic reality of the invention
It applies example and its explanation is used to explain the present invention, do not constitute improper limitations of the present invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the long-term prediction of situation method flow diagram of transmission line forest fire of the preferred embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is mountain fire fire point quantity distribution map of certain province in historical years of the preferred embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The embodiment of the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with attached drawing, but the present invention can be defined by the claims
Implement with the multitude of different ways of covering.
Embodiment 1
As shown in Figure 1, the present embodiment provides a kind of long-term prediction of situation methods of transmission line forest fire, comprising the following steps:
S1: the mountain fire fire point information and the corresponding meteorological element data of mountain fire fire point information of historical years are collected；
S2: correlation analysis is used, if filtering out from meteorological element data and mountain fire fire point information strong correlation
Dry crucial meteorological element data；
S4: the long-term prediction of situation model of mountain fire is obtained according to mountain fire fire point information and crucial meteorological element data, according to mountain
The long-term prediction of situation of fiery long-term prediction of situation model realization transmission line forest fire.
The long-term prediction of situation method of above-mentioned transmission line forest fire is believed by the mountain fire fire point to transmission line of electricity historical years
It ceases meteorological element data corresponding with the mountain fire fire point information to be excavated, the long-term situation of mountain fire for being able to achieve transmission line of electricity is pre-
It surveys, provides important scientific basis to formulate reasonable mountain fire diaster prevention and control planning.
As the present embodiment preferred embodiment, after step S2, further comprise the steps of:
S3: mountain fire fire point information and crucial meteorological element data are pre-processed.In the present embodiment, pre-process as normalizing
Change processing.
In the present embodiment, meteorological element data include one of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric circulation, typhoon or any several
The combination of kind.It should be noted that the present embodiment does not limit meteorological element data specifically, and herein, merely illustrative theory
It is bright.
Specifically, by taking certain is saved as an example, firstly, collecting the mountain fire fire point incremental data of province's historical years, and and mountain fire
A variety of meteorological element data such as relevant precipitation, temperature, atmospheric circulation, typhoon occur, wherein the mountain fire fire points of historical years
Amount distribution is as shown in Figure 2.
Further, using correlation analysis, several preceding crucial meteorologies relevant to mountain fire fire point quantity are screened
Element；Analysis finds that meteorological element relevant to mountain fire mainly has annual precipitation, the temperature on average of high-incidence season, landfall typhoon quantity
Deng.And all crucial meteorological elements and mountain fire fire point quantity are normalized, calculation formula is as follows:
In formula, FiNormalized element, S are needed for i-thiFor the element after i-th of normalization, min (Fi) it is i-th
The minimum value of element, max (Fi) be i-th of element maximum value.
Then deep neural network model is used, year mountain fire fire point quantity long-term prediction model is established；Using prediction model
The mountain fire fire point quantity of prediction 2015 is 8900, it is proposed that planning increases anti-mountain fire measure.
Embodiment 2
With above method embodiment correspondingly, the present embodiment provides a kind of long-term prediction of situation systems of transmission line forest fire
System including memory, processor and stores the computer program that can be run on a memory and on a processor, the processing
The step of device realizes the above method when executing the computer program.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to restrict the invention, for the skill of this field
For art personnel, the invention may be variously modified and varied.All within the spirits and principles of the present invention, made any to repair
Change, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of long-term prediction of situation method of transmission line forest fire, which comprises the following steps:
S1: the mountain fire fire point information and the corresponding meteorological element data of mountain fire fire point information of historical years are collected；
S2: correlation analysis is used, if filtering out from the meteorological element data and mountain fire fire point information strong correlation
Dry crucial meteorological element data；
S4: the long-term prediction of situation model of mountain fire, root are obtained according to the mountain fire fire point information and the crucial meteorological element data
According to the long-term long-term prediction of situation of prediction of situation model realization transmission line forest fire of the mountain fire.
2. according to the long-term prediction of situation method of transmission line forest fire described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the step
After S2, further comprise the steps of:
S3: the mountain fire fire point information and the crucial meteorological element data are pre-processed.
3. the long-term prediction of situation method of transmission line forest fire according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the pretreatment is
Normalized.
4. the long-term prediction of situation method of transmission line forest fire according to claim 3, which is characterized in that at the normalization
The calculation formula of reason are as follows:
In formula, FiNormalized element, S are needed for i-thiFor the element after i-th of normalization, min (Fi) it is i-th of element
Minimum value, max (Fi) be i-th of element maximum value.
5. the long-term prediction of situation method of transmission line forest fire according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the meteorological element
Data include one of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric circulation, typhoon or any several combination.
6. a kind of long-term prediction of situation system of transmission line forest fire, including memory, processor and storage are on a memory simultaneously
The computer program that can be run on a processor, which is characterized in that the processor is realized when executing the computer program
The step of stating claim 1 to 5 any the method.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110956152A (en) * | 2019-12-10 | 2020-04-03 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Multi-scale analysis method and system for forest fire of power transmission line |
| CN111027727A (en) * | 2019-12-27 | 2020-04-17 | 中南大学 | Cross-domain operation and maintenance key element identification method for track system |
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| CN106021666A (en) * | 2016-05-10 | 2016-10-12 | 四川大学 | Mountain fire disaster early-warning method for overhead power transmission line |
| CN109118001A (en) * | 2018-08-09 | 2019-01-01 | 成都天地量子科技有限公司 | A kind of mountain fire monitoring method and system based on satellite remote sensing date |
| CN109472396A (en) * | 2018-10-17 | 2019-03-15 | 四川佳联众合企业管理咨询有限公司 | Mountain fire prediction technique based on depth e-learning |
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| CN106021666A (en) * | 2016-05-10 | 2016-10-12 | 四川大学 | Mountain fire disaster early-warning method for overhead power transmission line |
| CN109118001A (en) * | 2018-08-09 | 2019-01-01 | 成都天地量子科技有限公司 | A kind of mountain fire monitoring method and system based on satellite remote sensing date |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110956152A (en) * | 2019-12-10 | 2020-04-03 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Multi-scale analysis method and system for forest fire of power transmission line |
| CN111027727A (en) * | 2019-12-27 | 2020-04-17 | 中南大学 | Cross-domain operation and maintenance key element identification method for track system |
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Application publication date: 20190906 |