CN110209999A - A kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction method - Google Patents

A kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction method Download PDF

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CN110209999A
CN110209999A CN201810166699.7A CN201810166699A CN110209999A CN 110209999 A CN110209999 A CN 110209999A CN 201810166699 A CN201810166699 A CN 201810166699A CN 110209999 A CN110209999 A CN 110209999A
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mobile unit
sequence
model
autoregression model
malfunction
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李晋
梁强升
吕利民
徐国飞
谢湘
林德辉
冼志威
陈孝德
刘建成
梁毅
高娅莉
温辛妍
夏科芬
黎志华
黄诗瑶
梁恺文
李亚
关维
李兆新
张昕
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BEIJING JINHONG XIDIAN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Co Ltd
Guangzhou Metro Group Co Ltd
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BEIJING JINHONG XIDIAN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Co Ltd
Guangzhou Metro Group Co Ltd
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    • G06F17/00Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/18Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis

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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction methods, the described method comprises the following steps: S1: the fault type and fault data that acquisition mobile unit occurs, and various probabilities of malfunction are arranged as sequence Xi;S2: whether sequence is steady in judgment step S1, if sequence is non-stationary series, which is pre-processed;S3: autoregression model identification is carried out to stable sequence, and determines autoregression model order;S4: parameter is carried out according to a preliminary estimate to autoregression model using algorithm, and model of the adaptive test to confirm the validity is carried out to autoregression model;S5: carrying out the prediction of the probability of malfunction of each fault type by determining autoregression model, and regression analysis equation is recycled to export the probability of malfunction of entire mobile unit.Train operation hidden danger can be found in advance by the prediction technique and hidden danger is discharged, to reduce the incidence of accident, ensure train safe and highly efficient operation, and then improve train operation efficiency.

Description

A kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction method
Technical field
The invention belongs to mobile unit safety analysis technique fields, and in particular to a kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction side Method.
Background technique
In order to guarantee the high efficiency transport of city underground, subway manager draws high the intensity of operation to pole in busy route Limit.However train is high-intensitive, under prolonged traffic-operating period, inevitably breaks down, influences the conevying efficiency of train And safety.The vehicle-mounted equipment fault diagnosis of present subway and maintenance still rely on expertise, and the accuracy of diagnosis is difficult to meet The demand of subway manager.The vehicle-mounted signal device of subway train is a kind of system of complexity, and failure is true with diversity and not It is qualitative, and fault sample is imperfect.
It traditionally, for the fault diagnosis of subway mobile unit, is diagnosed based on neural network failure.Usual situation Under, the step of neural network failure diagnoses, is as follows: firstly, sorting out by the detection and collection of signal and being able to reflect tested pair As the characteristic parameter of (module device or components), such as { x1,x2,…xnInput as network;Then to the event of checked object Barrier state is encoded.Such as failure 1, failure 2, normal three kinds of states, it is desired for encoding are as follows: failure 1 { 0,1 }, event Hinder 2 { 1,0 }, normal { 0,0 };And then arrange set of data samples as training sample, network is trained after inputting network, The weight between each neuron is calculated, state recognition is carried out to checked object with trained network;Finally, being divided by arranging The means such as analysis, experiment, formula calculating, emulation, which have determined, outputs and inputs sample data, the number of layers from network, hidden layer nerve Network model is optimized in metadata, the transmission function of each interlayer, training function, initial weight and deviation, and by pair Than predicted value and actual value, Application of Neural Network is verified in the feasibility of mobile unit failure predication.
However, being owed when for the fluctuation in a certain range of the index under normal condition using neural network prediction effect It is good.Therefore the development for utilizing Neural Network model predictive mechanical breakdown starts sampling and builds only when characteristic parameter obviously becomes larger Mould just has preferable effect.And due to the various limitations of neural network, lead to itself and not applicable long-term forecast equipment fault.
Summary of the invention
To solve the above-mentioned problems, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction methods, lead to It is general to cross the failure for predicting entire subway load equipment in the following rapid lapse of time that the prediction technique can be relatively reasonable Rate improves the efficiency and safety of subway circulation.
To achieve the above object, the present invention is achieved by following technical scheme:
A kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction method, the described method comprises the following steps:
S1: the fault type and fault data that acquisition mobile unit occurs count the fault type and calculate various events Hinder probability, and various probabilities of malfunction are arranged as sequence Xi
S2: whether sequence is steady in judgment step S1, if sequence is non-stationary series, which is pre-processed, and leads to It crosses and uses difference method formula: Yi=Xi+1-XiIt is pre-processed, until unit root test result is steady;
S3: autoregression model identification is carried out to stable sequence, estimates the order of autoregression model, then be determined by calculation Final autoregression model order;
S4: parameter is carried out according to a preliminary estimate to autoregression model using algorithm, and adaptability inspection is carried out to autoregression model Test the model to confirm the validity;
S5: carrying out the prediction of the probability of malfunction of each fault type by determining autoregression model, recycles regression analysis Equation exports the probability of malfunction of entire mobile unit.
Further, the autoregression model in the step S3 are as follows:Wherein, X in formulatFor t The corresponding sequence at moment, wtFor white noise, p is the order of model, akTo need the parameter estimated.
Further, the autoregression model identification includes to sequence XiCarry out the meter of auto-correlation function and deviation―related function It calculates, with the determination sequence XiIt is suitble to autoregression model.
Further, the determination of the autoregression model order is the minimum information criterion value by calculating each model, most Order when small information criterion value value minimum is final mask order.
It further, is to miss priori prediction errors and back forecast to the algorithm of parameter according to a preliminary estimate in the step S4 The smallest Burg algorithm of the sum of poor mean square error.
Further, the adaptive test of the autoregression model calculates the estimation of former sequence including the use of estimation parameter Value, and the residual sequence of estimation is calculated, residual sequence is examined if white noise, can determine whether that the autoregression model is effective.
Further, the probability of malfunction prediction in the step S5 uses sequence XtIn moment t to the observed value at t+l moment Xt-lIt is predicted, this prediction is using t as origin, and X is used in the prediction for being l to time early periodt+lConditional expectation as Xt-l's Predicted value.
Further, the input of regression analysis equation described in the step S5 is the probability of malfunction of each fault type.
Further, the regression analysis equation foundation the following steps are included:
S501: the probability of malfunction composition independent variable matrix of each fault type is acquired, and corresponds to and acquires entire mobile unit Probability of malfunction group dependent variable matrix;
S502: the independent variable matrix and dependent variable matrix are substituted into regression equation model:
In, find out parameter a, bkValue, obtain regression analysis equation, and test to the correlation output and input;
S503: taking successive Regression thought to carry out model optimization to the regression analysis equation, obtains optimum regression analysis Equation falls in the coefficient R of regression analysis equation in the range of 0.8~1.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:
The invention discloses a kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction methods, by time series analysis, have both inputted each The failure of fault type predicts the probability of malfunction at next moment, can accurately obtain the failure of each fault type Probability;The probability of malfunction of entire mobile unit is from which further followed that by regression analysis equation.So that train fault discovery before compared with Accurately to find failure, and carry out excluding to reach to scent a hidden danger in advance that hidden danger is discharged rapidly, so that the incidence of accident is reduced, It ensures train safe and highly efficient operation, and then improves train operation efficiency.
Detailed description of the invention
Specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawing, in which:
Fig. 1 is the method flow diagram of the mobile unit failure trend prediction method of disclosure of the invention;
Fig. 2 is regression analysis equation Establishing process figure in the mobile unit failure trend prediction method of disclosure of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings, it should be understood that preferred reality described herein Apply example only for the purpose of illustrating and explaining the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention.
As shown in Figure 1, the invention discloses a kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction methods, it is described as can be seen from Figure 1 Method is the following steps are included: S1: the fault type and fault data that acquisition mobile unit occurs, counting statistics fault type and each Kind probability of malfunction, and various probabilities of malfunction are arranged as sequence Xi;S2: whether sequence is steady in judgment step S1, if sequence is Non-stationary series pre-process the sequence, by using difference method formula: Yi=Xi+1-XiIt is pre-processed, until unit Until root inspection result is steady;S3: autoregression model identification is carried out to stable sequence, estimates the substantially rank of autoregression model Number, then final autoregression model order is determined by detailed calculate;S4: parameter is carried out to autoregression model using algorithm According to a preliminary estimate, and to autoregression model model of the adaptive test to confirm the validity is carried out;S5: pass through determining autoregression model The prediction of the probability of malfunction of each fault type is carried out, regression analysis equation is recycled to export the probability of malfunction of entire mobile unit. Wherein, present invention is generally directed to the failures of ATP mobile unit to carry out trend analysis and prediction.ATP mobile unit is train control system Important component, can control running speed, guarantee traffic safety, it is vehicle-mounted automatic protection equipment, is operated in existing In railway line, is interlocked with ground track circuit, transponder device, automatically control safe train operation.The vehicle acquired in step S1 It carrying equipment fault data to classify first, be predicted with will pass through AR model to the probability of malfunction of various fault types, In judgment step S1 sequence it is whether steady in, the standard of judgement are as follows: as time went on, auto-correlation coefficient is decayed with fast speed It is zero, can determine whether as stationary sequence, it is on the contrary then be non-stationary series.If a system is X in the response of moment tt, and only with Its former moment it is corresponding related, and it is unrelated with the disturbance that its former moment enters system, then, this system is exactly autoregression System, corresponding model are denoted as AR model, the autoregression model as introduced in above-mentioned steps.
Preferably, the autoregression model in the step S3 are as follows:Wherein, X in formulatWhen for t The corresponding sequence at quarter, wtFor white noise, p is the order of model, akTo need the parameter estimated.The establishment process of autoregression model The as process of model parameter estimation exactly selects suitable parameter to make the residual error w of autoregression modeltFor white noise sequence. Preferably, the autoregression model identification includes to sequence XiThe calculating of auto-correlation function and deviation―related function is carried out to be somebody's turn to do to determine Sequence is suitble to autoregression model, with the order of this described autoregression model according to a preliminary estimate.
Preferably, the determination of the autoregression model order is the minimum information criterion value by calculating each model, when most Order when small information criterion value value minimum is final autoregression model order.Wherein, in the step S3 according to a preliminary estimate Autoregression model there are multiple estimation orders, by minimum information criterion value can weigh estimated model complexity and this The Optimality of models fitting data, to determine suitable autoregression model order.Preferably, at the beginning of parameter in the step S4 The algorithm of step estimation is to make the smallest Burg algorithm of the sum of priori prediction errors and posteriori prediction errors mean square error, passes through the calculation Method obtains the parameter a in the autoregression modelk
Preferably, the adaptive test of the autoregression model calculates estimating for former sequence including the use of the estimation parameter Evaluation, and the residual sequence of estimation is calculated, residual sequence is examined if white noise, can determine whether that the autoregression model has Effect.Reliable autoregression model is obtained by adaptive test, the model is enabled effectively to predict subsequent time Probability of malfunction.Preferably, the probability of malfunction prediction in the step S5 uses sequence XtIn moment t to the observed value at t+l moment Xt-lIt is predicted, this prediction is for using t as origin, X is used in the prediction for being l to time early periodt+lConditional expectation as Xt-l Predicted value, to obtain the probability of malfunction of fault type.
As shown in Figure 1, the invention discloses regression analysis equation method for building up in mobile unit failure trend prediction method. Preferably, the probability of malfunction prediction of entire mobile unit is the applied regression analysis side on the basis for establishing autoregression model Journey is realized.The output of regression analysis equation is the probability of malfunction of entire mobile unit, is inputted as the failure of each fault type Probability.Preferably, the foundation of the regression analysis equation is the following steps are included: S501: acquiring the probability of malfunction of each fault type Form independent variable matrix, and the corresponding probability of malfunction group dependent variable matrix for acquiring entire mobile unit;S502: will be described from change Moment matrix and dependent variable matrix substitute into regression equation model:In, find out parameter a, bk's Value, obtains regression analysis equation, and test to the correlation output and input;S503: take successive Regression thought to institute It states regression analysis equation and carries out model optimization, obtain optimum regression analysis equation, fall in the coefficient R of regression analysis equation In the range of 0.8~1.Wherein, the method for regression analysis is varied, and the regression analysis equation established in the present invention is gradually to return Return analytic approach, the method selects to influence that linear correlation more significantly and is between each other not present on dependent variable under certain criterion Independent variable, the independent variable be each fault type probability of malfunction composition matrix.It is reasonable and simple and practical to establish Regression analysis equation model.Successive Regression basic thought is to choose the initial data set comprising some independents variable first, then Increase by the independent variable of one with dependent variable correlation maximum outside data set, then is carried out together with all independents variable in data set It examines, it is the smallest to remove correlation from relatively inapparent variable, gradually carries out, knot when can not increase and remove variable Beam finally therefrom finds an optimal combination.
The other structures of mobile unit failure trend prediction method of the present invention are no longer superfluous herein referring to the prior art It states.
The above described is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention in any form, therefore Without departing from the technical solutions of the present invention, according to the technical essence of the invention it is to the above embodiments it is any modification, Equivalent variations and modification, all of which are still within the scope of the technical scheme of the invention.

Claims (9)

1. a kind of mobile unit failure trend prediction method, which is characterized in that the described method comprises the following steps:
S1: the fault type and fault data that acquisition mobile unit occurs count the fault type and the various failures of calculating are general Rate, and various probabilities of malfunction are arranged as sequence Xi
S2: whether sequence is steady in judgment step S1, if sequence is non-stationary series, which is pre-processed, by making With difference method formula: Yi=Xi+1-XiIt is pre-processed, until unit root test result is steady;
S3: carrying out autoregression model identification to stable sequence, estimate the order of autoregression model, then is determined by calculation final Autoregression model order;
S4: using algorithm to autoregression model carry out parameter according to a preliminary estimate, and to autoregression model carry out adaptive test with The model confirmed the validity;
S5: carrying out the prediction of the probability of malfunction of each fault type by determining autoregression model, recycles regression analysis equation Export the probability of malfunction of entire mobile unit.
2. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step S3 from Regression model are as follows:Wherein, X in formulatFor the corresponding sequence of t moment, wtFor white noise, p is model Order, akTo need the parameter estimated.
3. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the autoregression model is known It does not include to sequence XiThe calculating of auto-correlation function and deviation―related function is carried out, with the determination sequence XiIt is suitble to autoregression model.
4. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the autoregression model rank Several determinations is the minimum information criterion value by calculating each model, and order when minimum information criterion value value minimum is final Model order.
5. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that ginseng in the step S4 The algorithm of number according to a preliminary estimate is to make the smallest Burg algorithm of the sum of priori prediction errors and posteriori prediction errors mean square error.
6. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the autoregression model Adaptive test calculates the estimated value of former sequence including the use of estimation parameter, and the residual sequence of estimation, residual error is calculated Sequence is examined if white noise, can determine whether that the autoregression model is effective.
7. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the event in the step S5 Hinder probabilistic forecasting and uses sequence XtIn moment t to the observed value X at t+l momentt-lIt is predicted, this prediction is to be former with t Point, the prediction for being l to time early period, uses Xt+lConditional expectation as Xt-lPredicted value.
8. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described in the step S5 The input of regression analysis equation is the probability of malfunction of each fault type.
9. mobile unit failure trend prediction method according to claim 1 or 8, which is characterized in that the regression analysis The foundation of equation the following steps are included:
S501: the probability of malfunction composition independent variable matrix of each fault type, and the corresponding failure for acquiring entire mobile unit are acquired Probability group dependent variable matrix;
S502: the independent variable matrix and dependent variable matrix are substituted into regression equation model:
In, find out parameter a, bkValue, obtain regression analysis equation, and test to the correlation output and input;
S503: taking successive Regression thought to carry out model optimization to the regression analysis equation, obtain optimum regression analysis equation, Fall in the coefficient R of regression analysis equation in the range of 0.8~1.
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CN110765619A (en) * 2019-10-28 2020-02-07 中国人民解放军63921部队 Short-term multi-step prediction method for failure-free canned motor pump failure based on multi-state parameters
CN110764065A (en) * 2019-10-16 2020-02-07 清华大学 Radar fault diagnosis method based on time sequence reconstruction
CN110809280A (en) * 2019-10-21 2020-02-18 北京锦鸿希电信息技术股份有限公司 Detection and early warning method and device for railway wireless network quality
CN112149877A (en) * 2020-08-31 2020-12-29 国网江苏省电力有限公司苏州供电分公司 Multi-source data-driven fault prediction method and system for multi-element complex urban power grid
CN112632711A (en) * 2021-01-06 2021-04-09 神华中海航运有限公司 Ship fault prediction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium
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CN117235540A (en) * 2023-08-21 2023-12-15 江西农业大学 Sensor dynamic information linkage analysis method based on feature matching fusion

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Cited By (18)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110764065A (en) * 2019-10-16 2020-02-07 清华大学 Radar fault diagnosis method based on time sequence reconstruction
CN110764065B (en) * 2019-10-16 2021-10-08 清华大学 Radar fault diagnosis method based on time sequence reconstruction
CN110809280A (en) * 2019-10-21 2020-02-18 北京锦鸿希电信息技术股份有限公司 Detection and early warning method and device for railway wireless network quality
CN110809280B (en) * 2019-10-21 2022-10-18 北京锦鸿希电信息技术股份有限公司 Detection and early warning method and device for railway wireless network quality
CN110765619A (en) * 2019-10-28 2020-02-07 中国人民解放军63921部队 Short-term multi-step prediction method for failure-free canned motor pump failure based on multi-state parameters
CN110765619B (en) * 2019-10-28 2023-05-30 中国人民解放军63921部队 Failure-free canned motor pump fault short-term multi-step prediction method based on multi-state parameters
CN112149877B (en) * 2020-08-31 2022-07-05 国网江苏省电力有限公司苏州供电分公司 Multi-source data driven fault prediction method and system for multi-element complex urban power grid
CN112149877A (en) * 2020-08-31 2020-12-29 国网江苏省电力有限公司苏州供电分公司 Multi-source data-driven fault prediction method and system for multi-element complex urban power grid
CN112632711A (en) * 2021-01-06 2021-04-09 神华中海航运有限公司 Ship fault prediction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN112632711B (en) * 2021-01-06 2024-01-30 神华中海航运有限公司 Ship fault prediction method, device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN113219939A (en) * 2021-04-07 2021-08-06 山东润一智能科技有限公司 Equipment fault prediction method and system based on residual autoregression
CN114267178A (en) * 2021-12-30 2022-04-01 佳都科技集团股份有限公司 Intelligent operation maintenance method and device for station
CN114267178B (en) * 2021-12-30 2023-09-26 佳都科技集团股份有限公司 Intelligent operation maintenance method and device for station
CN115580635A (en) * 2022-09-26 2023-01-06 广州健新科技有限责任公司 Intelligent fault diagnosis method and system for terminal of Internet of things
CN115580635B (en) * 2022-09-26 2023-06-13 广州健新科技有限责任公司 Intelligent fault diagnosis method and system for Internet of things terminal
CN116643554A (en) * 2023-06-01 2023-08-25 中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司通信信号研究所 Fault management method, system and equipment for ATP (adenosine triphosphate) vehicle-mounted equipment of high-speed railway
CN116643554B (en) * 2023-06-01 2023-11-28 中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司通信信号研究所 Fault management method, system and equipment for ATP (adenosine triphosphate) vehicle-mounted equipment of high-speed railway
CN117235540A (en) * 2023-08-21 2023-12-15 江西农业大学 Sensor dynamic information linkage analysis method based on feature matching fusion

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