CN110208879A - High aititude mountain area freeze thawing band rock slope liability forecasting procedure - Google Patents
High aititude mountain area freeze thawing band rock slope liability forecasting procedure Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of High aititude mountain area freeze thawing band rock slope liability forecasting procedure, to solve the problems, such as that the prior art need to rely on the sensor acquisition of slopes specific site installation for a long time and real-time deformation data are just able to achieve Landslide Prediction.The present invention is based on forecasting ground earth's surface temperature record and SAR image, the forecast ground earth's surface temperature change period is divided according to earth's surface temperature record, extract the timing-temperature data and timing-rock mass deformation amount data in period of change each stage, the key temperature index identified is recycled to determine functional relation between earth's surface temperature change and rock mass deformation amount, with calculating forecast average solidification point-rock mass deformation rate, finally according to coming down the critical condition judgement forecast occurred the liability high and low level that comes down, the prediction of to forecasting the liability that comes down is realized.The present invention solves the landslide liability forecasting problem for the slopes for implementing sensor monitoring and warning that do not satisfy the requirements.Implementation cost economy is suitable for high altitude localities use.
Description
Technical field
It is pre- more particularly to a kind of High aititude mountain area landslide the present invention relates to a kind of landslide liability forecasting procedure
The method and system of report belong to Mountain Hazards Prevention, environmental management field.
Background technique
High mountain landslide is one kind of mountain region disaster, is endangered in addition to being personal safety and property loss, it is also quite conceivable to
Immeasurable harm is caused to the ecological environment on important river source ground, thus its prediction technology becomes mountain region disaster
One of prevention and control research field.In high mountain preventing land slide research field, the snow line as caused by climate warming moves up the height of initiation
Altitude mountainous area rock mass unfreezing is reinforced, and causes height above sea level 2000m to the large landslide disaster tool of the mountain area freeze thawing band between snow line
Be found that difficulty is high, scale of causing disaster is big and it is difficult to predict the characteristics of, study on prevention occupies an important position.High aititude mountain area is frozen
Melt band large landslide disaster to take place frequently.
The prior art mainly realizes the monitoring and early warning of landslide liability by various kinds of sensors real-time monitoring.Tool
Body is to install sensor additional in slopes and periphery key position, and actual measurement slopes fissare deformation data and have calculated its deformation rule
Rule.When sensor real-time transmission data shows deformation aggravation, information warning is issued by early warning system.This method accuracy
It is higher, such as storied Three Gorges late Archaean is just because of realizing successfully early warning in this way.But this
Class method obtains long-term and real-time deformation data due to that must rely on the sensor of slopes specific site installation, thus cannot be
The slopes that sensor can not be installed additional are implemented.In the widely distributed High aititude mountain area in Qinghai-Tibet periphery, since monitoring instrument is installed
Difficulty is big, and installation cost is high, thus can not use this kind of early warning means completely.Meanwhile Qinghai-Tibet and its periphery High aititude mountain
The slopes in area are tended not to guarantee that sensor operates steadily in the long term, be provided timely and effective due to harsh environmental conditions and changeable
Data, thus also more difficult it is applicable in above-mentioned early warning means.
Existing earth observation from space technology Insar can identify geology crack deformed area, but be directly applied to Qinghai-Tibet
The slopes deformation of highlands then has difficulties.This is because with hiding the special tectonic that plateau is the lower formation of plate collision effect
The High aititude mountain area of looks, periphery distribution has strong uplift and erosion feature, the geology uplifting speed and popularity of duration
Rock mass deformation it is generally existing.If individually using Insar observation technology, the deformed area area identified is huge, specific aim is poor,
Validity applied to the early warning system for instructing hedging is low, poor operability.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to the deficiencies in the prior art, provide a kind of suitable for High aititude mountain area freeze thawing band rock
The method of body landslide liability forecast.
To achieve the above object, technical scheme is as follows:
A kind of High aititude mountain area freeze thawing band rock slope liability forecasting procedure, for forecasting height above sea level 2000m or more, snow
Freeze thawing below line is caused danger with the landslide of rock mass；It is characterized by:
Step S1, master data is obtained
It determines forecast ground geographical location and height above sea level, obtains master data；The master data includes forecast ground current year
And nearly 2 years earth's surface temperature record, forecast ground current year and nearly 2 years Rock Slide Stability periods SAR image；
Step S2, data are analyzed
According to earth's surface temperature record, earth's surface temperature change period, each earth's surface temperature change period include with dividing forecast
Rock mass freezes stage AB and rock mass melts stage BC, extracts each stage timing-earth's surface temperature record, calculates each rock mass and freeze
The average value T of the minimum earth's surface temperature of stage ABd；
SAR image is analyzed using InSAR technology, obtains the deformation data of having time sequence, and earth's surface gas according to weather report
The time point of warm period of change divides the stage, extracts the timing-rock mass deformation amount data in each stage；
Step S3, be averaged to CALCULATING PREDICTION solidification point-rock mass deformation rate
UsingFitting timing-earth's surface temperature record and timing-rock mass deformation amount data stage by stage, obtain
To each staged matching equation, wherein it be time, unit d, a is constant term that Y, which is rock mass deformation amount, unit mm, X, and b is constant
, TdIt is the average value that each rock mass freezes stage minimum earth's surface temperature；
Each equation a is denoted as average solidification point-rock mass deformation rate, is respectively labeled as: aAB- current year rock mass freezes
Stage be averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate,- the previous year rock mass freezes the stage and is averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation
Rate,- the first two year rock mass freeze the stage be averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate,- the previous year rock mass melts rank
Duan Pingjun solidification point rate of deformation,- the first two year rock mass melts the stage and is averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate；
Step S4, judge Landslide hazard
Forecast ground Landslide hazard is judged according to judgment rule, and the judgment rule is:
IfAndThen forecast that ground rock mass freezes the stage at this
The rainy season stability of current year is poor, and risk is high, needs to issue emergency escape notice；
IfAndThen forecast that ground rock mass freezes the stage at this
The rainy season stability of current year is poor, and risk is medium, needs to rock mass deformation real-time monitoring and is aided with mass presdiction and disaster prevention；
IfThen forecast that ground rock mass is relatively stable in the rainy season for freezing current year in stage, danger
It is dangerous low.
It is this kind of without condition implementation sensor that above-mentioned rock slope liability forecasting procedure is primarily adapted for use in High aititude mountain area
The landslide liability predicting monitoring of the slopes of real time monitoring.Currently, various regions weather monitoring station is widely distributed, meteorologic survey index
It is abundant, the high status of the acquisition realizability of earth's surface temperature record；Meanwhile passing through existing earth observation from space technology Insar
The calculating of the regional landform of forecast, landforms and earth's surface minor change can be achieved.The method of the present invention effective use is above-mentioned two just
Suitable condition with rock mass deformation is basic principle to earth's surface temperature change differential response based on freeze thawing, will forecast ground earth's surface gas
Warm data and SAR image are subject to association analysis, by earth's surface temperature record and two groups of data of rock mass deformation amount data along time shaft
The variation characteristic shown determines long-term earth's surface temperature change to the instruction effect of rock mass deformation amount.
According to rock mass sports rule, the effect of rock mass internally-powered, including earthquake, grand liter, extruding and tension etc. cause rock mass to produce
Raw micro-crack or crack, the crack of generation can further penetrate through under the action of the outer power such as rainfall, and the shape at key node
At locked patch, the stability of locked patch is the key that rock stability, the deformation pair of stabilization sub stage and unstable stage locked patch
The differential response of alternate freezing and thawing is the key that rock stability prediction.Further, earth's surface temperature is less than 0 DEG C, at locked patch
Water freezing after, medium in crack switchs to solid-state by liquid, and solid-state has support force, and support force is with glide direction on the contrary, right
Equal to the skid resistance for increasing locked patch, stability is opposite to be enhanced, thus is become freezing locked patch of the stage with respect to stationary stage
Shape rate is lower.After thawing circulation, locked patch reaches unstability critical stage, and previous in unstability freezes stage internal lock
Gu the phenomenon that unconventional increase is presented in the rate of deformation of section.Based on this principle analysis, prediction technique of the present invention comprehensively considers
Influence of the unfreezing to the freeze thawing of High aititude mountain area with rock stability passes through existing weather station earth's surface temperature record and divides
Rock mass freezes stage and thawing stage, determines that rock mass in the rate of deformation of different phase, further sieves using regression fit
Select that freeze the rate of deformation index in stage sliding in the rainy season of current year in thawing stage after freezing the stage as forecast ground rock mass
The judge index of slope liability.
Prediction technique of the present invention has found the average value T that each rock mass freezes stage minimum earth's surface temperaturedThis it is crucial because
Son, so that height fitness is realized to temperature index and the modeling of rock mass deformation index two parameter, so that prediction technique be made to have
The technical advantage that accuracy is high, implementation is strong.
The above-mentioned prediction technique of the present invention, forecast ground earth's surface temperature record are generally obtained from weather station in forecast ground, or from
Forecast ground distance is recently and weather station similar in elevation obtains, and influence technique scheme is not implemented.Forecast ground current year earth's surface temperature
Data and current year SAR image should at least freeze the data in stage, generally March before current year comprising current year first.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are: (1) this landslide liability forecasting procedure breaks through existing adopt
With the technological frame of sensor real-time monitoring, forecast ground earth's surface temperature record and SAR image integration are analyzed, using identifying
Key temperature index determine functional relation between earth's surface temperature change and rock mass deformation amount, and judgement landslide occurs
Critical condition, to realize the prediction of the landslide liability to forecast ground.This prediction technique is a kind of completely new technical concept.
(2) this prediction technique, which solves not satisfy the requirements, implements the landslide liability of the High aititude mountain area slopes of sensor monitoring and warning
Forecasting problem.(3) data basis (i.e. earth's surface temperature record with the SAR image) procurement cost of this prediction technique is low, forecast analysis
Hardware device needed for process is of less demanding, thus overall procedure practice and extension economy, and it is bad to be especially suitable for economic condition
Area uses.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is technology path schematic diagram.
Fig. 2 is to divide schematic diagram in the earth's surface temperature change period.
Fig. 3 is forecast ground earth's surface temperature record period of change figure.
Fig. 4 is 2014/11/4 to 2015/3/8 to freeze staged matching equation curve figure.
Fig. 5 is 2015/11/13 to 2016/4/4 to freeze staged matching equation curve figure.
Fig. 6 is 2016/10/30 to 2017/3/29 to freeze staged matching equation curve figure.
Fig. 7 is 2015/3/8 to 2015/11/13 thawing staged matching equation curve figure.
Fig. 8 is 2016/4/4 to 2016/10/30 thawing staged matching equation curve figure.
Fig. 9 is 2017/3/29 to 2017/6/24 thawing staged matching equation curve figure.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing, the preferred embodiment of the present invention is further described.
Embodiment one
As shown in FIG. 1 to FIG. 9, the village Man-made Forests in Maoxian, Sichuan Xin Mo 4 days to 2017 November in 2014 is analyzed with the method for the present invention
The analysis of the deformation data and earth's surface temperature record on June 24 is to 624 villages Xin Mo landslide liability.Fig. 1 is that technology path shows
It is intended to.
Aba Prefecture Mao County, Sichuan Province Xin Mocun (N32.063, E103.647), the level-one tributary pine level ground ditch for being located in Ming River are left
Bank.Belong to subtropical zone plateau monsoon weather, ground is in disk and competiting place on loose level ground ditch normal fault lower wall and Minjiang Fault thrust
In the circular wedge-shaped elevated block of arcuate tectonic belt north section, the Rapid Uplift effect in region makes the exposure machine in the fresh face of rock
It can increase, and then aggravate weathering process.Strong construction uplifting speed and the back such as the inverse punching of crust uplift, tomography and landform reversing
Oblique core portion pine Ping Gou strong down-cutting effect causes the erosional rate for studying area to be greater than neighboring area, and then is formed dangerously steep
Topography and geomorphology, establish material base for disaster.
Step S1, master data is obtained
It is N32 ° 0 ' 0 "~N32 ° 6 ' 0 " that embodiment, which chooses forecast ground, E103 ° 36 ' 0 "~E103 ° 42 ' 0 ", that is, it is located at cyclopentadienyl
The county downstream Song Pinggou and the town Ming River Die Xi range, height above sea level 2100m~4400m belong to High aititude mountain area.The high-order rock mass category in the area
Seasonal Freeze-thaw Soils band rock mass.
Forecast ground current year and nearly 2 years earth's surface temperature records be obtained from Songpan meteorological station (N32.67, E103.6,
2850.7m.a.s.l).Meteorological station distance forecast ground distance is nearest, and elevation is close.Data included June before current year
(on June 24,1 day~2017 January in 2017) data and nearly (on December 31,9 days~2016 October in 2014) more than 2 years number
According to.
The Sentinel-1 that the SAR image capturing of forecast ground current year and nearly 2 years Rock Slide Stabilities is announced from European Space Agency
(https://scihub.copernicus.eu/dhus/#/home).Data include June 9 days to 2017 October in 2014
45 width images on the 19th.Avalanche, landslide disaster, Rock Slide Stability do not occur for forecast ground in the period.
Step S2, data are analyzed
Dividing the forecast earth's surface temperature change period according to earth's surface temperature record, (Fig. 2 is to divide in the earth's surface temperature change period to show
It is intended to).Fig. 2 shows that forecast ground earth's surface temperature surrounds the cyclically-varying of 0 DEG C of fluctuation on a timeline.Wherein, each earth's surface
Temperature change period AC includes that rock mass freezes stage AB and rock mass thawing stage BC.In earth's surface temperature change sequence, a room temperature
Section and the terminal for freezing the temperature fluctuation section between section thereafter are A, this freezes between section and thereafter room temperature section
Temperature fluctuation section terminal be B, the room temperature section and the terminal C for freezing the temperature fluctuation section between section thereafter.According to
ABC each point in this circulation mark earth's surface temperature change sequence.AB segment table shows the stage of earth's surface temperature fluctuating change at 0 DEG C or less,
Belong to rock mass and freezes the stage；BC segment table shows the stage of earth's surface temperature fluctuating change at 0 DEG C or more, belongs to rock mass and melts the stage.It draws
Separating rock mass to freeze the spliting node that the stage melts the stage with rock mass is respectively 2014/11/4,2015/3/18,2015/11/
13,2016/4/4,2016/11/10,2017/3/29, (Fig. 3 is forecast ground earth's surface temperature record period of change as shown in Figure 3
Figure).Each stage timing-earth's surface temperature record is extracted, if as shown in the table.
The timing in each stage of table 1-earth's surface temperature record (400 before timing)
It calculates each rock mass and freezes the minimum earth's surface temperature of stage AB, calculate its arithmetic mean of instantaneous value Td=-6.113 DEG C (
Stage), -5.766 DEG C (Stage), -6.065 DEG C of (aABStage).
SAR image is analyzed using InSAR technology, obtains the deformation data of having time sequence, and earth's surface gas according to weather report
The stage that warm period of change time point is divided extracts the timing-rock mass deformation amount data in each stage, as shown in the table.
The timing in each stage of table 2-rock mass deformation amount data (part)
Step S3, be averaged to CALCULATING PREDICTION solidification point-rock mass deformation rate
UsingFitting timing-earth's surface temperature record and timing-rock mass deformation amount data stage by stage, obtain
To each staged matching equation.As a result as follows:
2014/11/4 to 2015/3/8 freezes the stage (Fig. 4):
2015/11/13 to 2016/4/4 freezes the stage (Fig. 5):
2016/10/30 to 2017/3/29 freezes the stage (Fig. 6):
2015/3/8 to 2015/11/13 melts stage (Fig. 7):
2016/4/4 to 2016/10/30 melts stage (Fig. 8):
2017/3/29 to 2017/6/24 melts stage (Fig. 9):
Each equation a is denoted as average solidification point-rock mass deformation rate, record has: it is average that current year rock mass freezes the stage
Solidification point-rock mass deformation rate aAB=0.5459, the previous year rock mass freezes the stage and is averaged solidification point-rock massThe first two year rock mass freezes the stage and is averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rateCurrent year rock mass melts
The change stage is averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate aBC=1.6861, the previous year rock mass melt the stage be averaged solidification point become
Shape rateThe first two year rock mass melts the stage and is averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate
Step S4, judge Landslide hazard
Forecast ground Landslide hazard is judged according to judgment rule.Fig. 6 shows that 2016/10/30 to 2017/3/29 freezes the stage
Rate of deformation is abnormal, freezes stage rate of deformation greater than the first two year, and be greater than Figure 72 015/3/8 to 2015/11/13 and melt
The rate of deformation of rank.That is 2016/10/30 to 2017/3/29 stage,And
Therefore forecast ground rock mass is rainy season (rainy season after the i.e. 2017/3/29) stability for freezing current year in stage is poor, risk is high,
Need to issue emergency escape notice.
Actual conditions are on June 24th, 2017, and landslide, which occurs, from 3384m in forecast ground range leads to the village Xin Mo quilt
It buries, 83 people are dead.
Claims (4)
1. High aititude mountain area freeze thawing band rock slope liability forecasting procedure, for forecasting height above sea level 2000m or more, freezing below snow line
Melt the landslide with rock mass to cause danger；It is characterized by:
Step S1, master data is obtained
It determines forecast ground geographical location and height above sea level, obtains master data；The master data includes forecast ground current year and nearly 2
Earth's surface temperature record, the SAR image of forecast ground current year and nearly 2 years Rock Slide Stability periods in year；
Step S2, data are analyzed
The forecast ground earth's surface temperature change period is divided according to earth's surface temperature record, each earth's surface temperature change period includes that rock mass freezes
Knot stage AB and rock mass melt stage BC, extract each stage timing-earth's surface temperature record, calculate each rock mass and freeze stage AB
The average value T of minimum earth's surface temperatured；
SAR image is analyzed using InSAR technology, obtains the deformation data of having time sequence, and earth's surface temperature becomes according to weather report
The time point for changing the period divides the stage, extracts the timing-rock mass deformation amount data in each stage；
Step S3, be averaged to CALCULATING PREDICTION solidification point-rock mass deformation rate
UsingFitting timing-earth's surface temperature record and timing-rock mass deformation amount data stage by stage, obtain each rank
Section fit equation, wherein it be time, unit d, a is constant term that Y, which is rock mass deformation amount, unit mm, X, and b is constant term, TdIt is every
One rock mass freezes the average value of stage minimum earth's surface temperature；
Each equation a is denoted as average solidification point-rock mass deformation rate, is respectively labeled as: aABIt is flat that-current year rock mass freezes the stage
Equal solidification point-rock mass deformation rate,- the previous year rock mass freeze the stage be averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate,- the first two year rock mass freeze the stage be averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate,It is average that-the previous year rock mass melts the stage
Solidification point rate of deformation,- the first two year rock mass melts the stage and is averaged solidification point-rock mass deformation rate；
Step S4, judge Landslide hazard
Forecast ground Landslide hazard is judged according to judgment rule, and the judgment rule is:
IfAndThen forecast that ground rock mass freezes current year in stage at this
Rainy season stability is poor, and risk is high, needs to issue emergency escape notice；
IfAndThen forecast that ground rock mass freezes current year in stage at this
Rainy season stability is poor, and risk is medium, needs to rock mass deformation real-time monitoring and is aided with mass presdiction and disaster prevention；
IfThen forecast that ground rock mass is relatively stable in the rainy season for freezing current year in stage, risk is low.
2. forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the division side in the rock mass earth's surface temperature change period
Method is: in earth's surface temperature change sequence, a room temperature section and the terminal for freezing the temperature fluctuation section between section thereafter are
A, the terminal for freezing the temperature fluctuation section between section and thereafter room temperature section are B, the room temperature section and freezing zone thereafter
Between between temperature fluctuation section terminal C；ABC each point in circulation mark earth's surface temperature change sequence according to this.
3. forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: forecast ground earth's surface temperature record is from forecast ground
Weather station obtains, or from forecast distance is recently and weather station similar in elevation obtains.
4. forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: forecast ground current year earth's surface temperature record and current year
SAR image includes at least March before current year.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN112541665A (en) * | 2020-12-08 | 2021-03-23 | 鞍钢集团矿业有限公司 | Slope stability refined evaluation method based on multi-source information fusion |
| WO2023047441A1 (en) * | 2021-09-21 | 2023-03-30 | 日本電気株式会社 | Information providing device, information providing method, recording medium, and observation system |
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| CN107067333A (en) * | 2017-01-16 | 2017-08-18 | 长沙矿山研究院有限责任公司 | A kind of high altitudes and cold stability of the high and steep slope monitoring method |
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| CN101770027A (en) * | 2010-02-05 | 2010-07-07 | 河海大学 | Ground surface three-dimensional deformation monitoring method based on InSAR and GPS data fusion |
| CN107067333A (en) * | 2017-01-16 | 2017-08-18 | 长沙矿山研究院有限责任公司 | A kind of high altitudes and cold stability of the high and steep slope monitoring method |
| CN106841570A (en) * | 2017-02-09 | 2017-06-13 | 中国地质科学院探矿工艺研究所 | Method for identifying deformation evolution stage of karyoplast landslide of bathyscaph of Chuandong |
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| CN112541665A (en) * | 2020-12-08 | 2021-03-23 | 鞍钢集团矿业有限公司 | Slope stability refined evaluation method based on multi-source information fusion |
| WO2023047441A1 (en) * | 2021-09-21 | 2023-03-30 | 日本電気株式会社 | Information providing device, information providing method, recording medium, and observation system |
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