CN110163423A - A kind of river ecological Restoration system - Google Patents

A kind of river ecological Restoration system Download PDF

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CN110163423A
CN110163423A CN201910365962.XA CN201910365962A CN110163423A CN 110163423 A CN110163423 A CN 110163423A CN 201910365962 A CN201910365962 A CN 201910365962A CN 110163423 A CN110163423 A CN 110163423A
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water
tree
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凌红波
邓晓雅
徐海量
韩飞飞
祝晓瞳
闫俊杰
张广朋
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Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of CAS
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    • Y02A20/00Water conservation; Efficient water supply; Efficient water use
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    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of river ecological Restoration systems; including river ecological data analysis system and ecological implementation system; the analysis method of river ecological data analysis system specifically includes following steps; S1, water balanced calculation; S2, water amount of seepage calculate; the separation reasoning of S3, climate change and mankind's activity to Southeast Tibetan Plateau amount the present invention relates to basin protection of resources and utilizes technical field.The river ecological Restoration system, the comparative analysis degree of protection of river basin ecological water before and after large watershed integrated management, and the Variation Features of natural vegetation cover degree, soil drought, the safeguard effects that large watershed comprehensive management mode supplies ecological water under quantitative evaluation climate change background, pass through the causes between building river ethic, leakage and tree ring standard chronology, the new approaches that river water amount of seepage is rebuild with tree-ring width index are proposed, for the groundwater optimal management for realizing arid biogeographic zone analogy basin.

Description

A kind of river ecological Restoration system
Technical field
The present invention relates to basin protection of resources and utilize technical field, specially a kind of river ecological Restoration system.
Background technique
Rationally efficient system of watershed management maintains fragility to arid biogeographic zone natural vegetation ecological water demand is ensured for building The ecosystem is completely of great significance with stabilization.In arid biogeographic zone, watershed management how is assessed to the effect of ecological protection how It realizes the Optimum Regulation of ecological water and efficiently utilizes, it has also become numerous scholars and watershed management person's focus of attention problem.
Due to shortage of water resources, socio-economic development lag and ecological environment frailty, Arid Area is that global environment becomes Change and one of the key area in the Study on Sustainable Development.In recent years, climate variation and the overdeveloped comprehensive shadow of water resource It rings, some Arid Areas occur that social and economic water consumption largely ties up Eco-environmental Water Consumption, natural vegetation large area decays, underground Ecological environment problems, the integrated managements of this watershed such as water level decreasing, desertification of land exacerbation propose new challenge.
Summary of the invention
(1) the technical issues of solving
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of river ecological Restoration system, existing river is solved Ecological recovery system does not analyze river ecological data very well, does not provide for groundwater optimal management and ecological safety The problem of scientific guidance.
(2) technical solution
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is achieved by the following technical programs: a kind of river ecological Restoration system, packet Include river ecological data analysis system and ecological implementation system, the analysis method of river ecological data analysis system specifically include with Lower step:
S1, water balanced calculation, water balanced calculation formula are as follows:
RH=Wd+Rl+Fm-Rw
S2, water amount of seepage calculate, according to Darcy's law, the calculation formula of Tarim River water amount of seepage are as follows:
QR=KWL (hR-hG)/Δ L;
The separation reasoning of S3, climate change and mankind's activity to Southeast Tibetan Plateau amount:
Model stream is chosen, on the basis of 30 annual flows before the river, trend model prediction is superimposed by construction schedule Rear 20 years run-offs are obtained, is the natural runoff by mankind's activity and climate change interference under smaller, is denoted as RHC(sli), secondly, former 30 years yielding flows construct relationship mould between the two with run-off is divided for foundation in model stream Type, then, according to the runoff magnitude after 20 years, climate change is significantly affected down after being calculated 20 years by the model constructed Run-off, be denoted as RC(str), the measured runoff after 20 years is denoted as RM, N is total year, and then, weather becomes every year on average Change and mankind's activity be to the calculation formula of source stream area runoff influence amount are as follows:
Climate change effect amount every year on average: Δ RC=(RC(str)-RHC(sli))/N;
Effect of human activity amount every year on average: Δ RH=(RC(str)-RM)/N;
Firstly, building calculates RHC(sli)Model, using 17 years periods of mainstream as calculation basis, by first three ten annual flow data Input model obtains the fit equation of runoff, and the average relative error of the equation is 4.14%, and fitting precision is preferable, therefore, 20 R after yearHC(sli)It calculates and obtains using the model;
Secondly, building calculates RC(str)Relational model, utilize yielding flow before current year and run-off measured data, structure Established model is as follows:
Z=40.2378-0.2668x+0.0016x2, R2=0.85
In formula, Z represents mainstream annual runoff, and x indicates yielding flow, and the equation is that climate change generates by force source stream runoff Before strong influence, with the relational model between the runoff of mainstream, thus, RC(str)Using rear 20 years source streams run-off measured data band Enter the model and calculates acquisition.
Preferably, the ecological implementation system implementation method specifically includes the following steps:
T1, remote sensing images analysis: river is implemented to monitor and analyze using remote sensing image technology;
T2, tree ring sampling and processing:
In order to analyze influence of the hydrological variation to diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel standard chronology, meet sampling requirement, apart from river 500- The diameter of a cross-section of a tree trunk 1.3 meters above the ground is chosen at 1000m to be sampled between the adult diversiform-leaved poplar of 30-50cm, chooses diversiform-leaved poplar 102 altogether, and each tree is handed over cross Fork method obtains sample core, is altogether 191, diversiform-leaved poplar tree core sample is taken back laboratory is pasted, fixes, polishes etc. and pre-processes, with Meet cross feedback control demand, during establishing chronology, for reservation as much as possible in tree-ring width chronologies low frequency side Difference, using negative exponential curve or the straight line without the positive gradient is fitted Tree-ring width sequence, to remove the life of trees itself Long trend finally obtains standardization year additionally using the variance of the further stable chronology of spline function of 2/3 sequence length Table, many studies have shown that, the standardization chronology of diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel can be well reflected the information of hydrological variation.
Preferably, R in the step S1 Chinese styleHFor source stream run-off, WdFor Water diversion, R1For River Loss, FmFor Water volume into mainstream, RwFor Return water.
Preferably, QR is section leakage in the step S2, and K is infiltration coefficient, and W is that the water surface is wide, and L is that river is long, and hR is River water level, is level of ground water under hG, and Δ L is river water recharge groundwater path length.
Preferably, it is the accuracy for ensuring cross feedback control in the step T2, utilizes LINTABTM6The measurement of type tree ring Instrument carries out annual ring width measurement.
Preferably, in the step T2 by COFECHA cross feedback control Quality Control Procedure carry out cross feedback control examine and The foundation of the amendment of increment, standard chronology is completed by ARSTAN program.
(3) beneficial effect
The present invention provides a kind of river ecological Restoration systems.Have compared with prior art it is following the utility model has the advantages that
(1), the river ecological Restoration system, by S1, water balanced calculation, S2, water amount of seepage are calculated, and S3, weather become Change and separation reasoning of the mankind's activity to Southeast Tibetan Plateau amount: choosing model stream, on the basis of 30 annual flows before the river, leads to Cross construction schedule superposition trend model predict to obtain rear 20 years run-offs, be by mankind's activity and climate change interference compared with Natural runoff under small, the comparative analysis degree of protection of river basin ecological water before and after large watershed integrated management, and it is natural Vegetation cover degree, soil drought and the Variation Features of arboreal growth, large watershed integrated pipe under quantitative evaluation climate change background The safeguard effects that reason mode supplies ecological water demonstrate the coordination hair that can promote River valley economy and the ecosystem under the mode Exhibition.
(2), the river ecological Restoration system, by the implementation method of ecological implementation system specifically includes the following steps: T1, Remote sensing images analysis: implementing to monitor and analyze using remote sensing image technology to river, T2, tree ring sampling and processing: in order to Influence of the hydrological variation to diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel standard chronology is analyzed, sampling requirement is met, chest is being chosen at river 500-1000m Diameter is sampled between the adult diversiform-leaved poplar of 30-50cm, by building river ethic, leakage and tree ring standard chronology it Between causes, be put forward for the first time with tree-ring width index rebuild river water amount of seepage new approaches, for realize arid biogeographic zone phase Scientific guidance is provided like the groundwater optimal management and ecological safety in basin.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is structure of the invention fit equation table figure;
Fig. 2 is that structure of the invention diversiform-leaved poplar tree takes turns standard chronology Parameter Map.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of technical solution referring to FIG. 1-2: a kind of river ecological Restoration system, including river Flow ecological data analysis system and ecological implementation system, it is characterised in that: the analysis method of river ecological data analysis system has Body the following steps are included:
S1, water balanced calculation, water balanced calculation formula are as follows:
RH=Wd+Rl+Fm-Rw
S2, water amount of seepage calculate, according to Darcy's law, the calculation formula of Tarim River water amount of seepage are as follows:
QR=KWL (hR-hG)/Δ L;
The separation reasoning of S3, climate change and mankind's activity to Southeast Tibetan Plateau amount:
Model stream is chosen, on the basis of 30 annual flows before the river, trend model prediction is superimposed by construction schedule Rear 20 years run-offs are obtained, is the natural runoff by mankind's activity and climate change interference under smaller, is denoted as RHC(sli), secondly, former 30 years yielding flows construct relationship mould between the two with run-off is divided for foundation in model stream Type, then, according to the runoff magnitude after 20 years, climate change is significantly affected down after being calculated 20 years by the model constructed Run-off, be denoted as RC(str), the measured runoff after 20 years is denoted as RM, N is total year, and then, weather becomes every year on average Change and mankind's activity be to the calculation formula of source stream area runoff influence amount are as follows:
Climate change effect amount every year on average: Δ RC=(RC(str)-RHC(sli))/N;
Effect of human activity amount every year on average: Δ RH=(RC(str)-RM)/N;
Firstly, building calculates RHC(sli)Model, using 17 years periods of mainstream as calculation basis, by first three ten annual flow data Input model obtains the fit equation of runoff, and the average relative error of the equation is 4.14%, and fitting precision is preferable, therefore, 20 R after yearHC(sli)It calculates and obtains using the model;
Secondly, building calculates RC(str)Relational model, utilize yielding flow before current year and run-off measured data, structure Established model is as follows:
Z=40.2378-0.2668x+0.0016x2, R2=0.85
In formula, Z represents mainstream annual runoff, and x indicates yielding flow, and the equation is that climate change generates by force source stream runoff Before strong influence, with the relational model between the runoff of mainstream, thus, RC(str)Using rear 20 years source streams run-off measured data band Enter the model and calculates acquisition
In the present invention, the implementation method of ecological implementation system specifically includes the following steps:
T1, remote sensing images analysis: river is implemented to monitor and analyze using remote sensing image technology;
T2, tree ring sampling and processing:
In order to analyze influence of the hydrological variation to diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel standard chronology, meet sampling requirement, apart from river 500- The diameter of a cross-section of a tree trunk 1.3 meters above the ground is chosen at 1000m to be sampled between the adult diversiform-leaved poplar of 30-50cm, chooses diversiform-leaved poplar 102 altogether, and each tree is handed over cross Fork method obtains sample core, is altogether 191, diversiform-leaved poplar tree core sample is taken back laboratory is pasted, fixes, polishes etc. and pre-processes, with Meet cross feedback control demand, during establishing chronology, for reservation as much as possible in tree-ring width chronologies low frequency side Difference, using negative exponential curve or the straight line without the positive gradient is fitted Tree-ring width sequence, to remove the life of trees itself Long trend finally obtains standardization year additionally using the variance of the further stable chronology of spline function of 2/3 sequence length Table, many studies have shown that, the standardization chronology of diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel can be well reflected the information of hydrological variation.
In the present invention, R in step S1 Chinese styleHFor source stream run-off, WdFor Water diversion, R1For River Loss, FmFor Water volume into mainstream, RwFor Return water.
In the present invention, QR is section leakage in step S2, and K is infiltration coefficient, and W is that the water surface is wide, and L is that river is long, and hR is river Road water level, is level of ground water under hG, and Δ L is river water recharge groundwater path length.
In the present invention, it is the accuracy for ensuring cross feedback control in step T2, utilizes LINTABTM6Type tree ring analyzer Carry out annual ring width measurement.
In the present invention, cross feedback control inspection and life are carried out by COFECHA cross feedback control Quality Control Procedure in step T2 The amendment of long amount, the foundation of standard chronology are completed by ARSTAN program.
In Fig. 2, diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel standard chronology is in believable public region Express population signal > 0.85, it can include more environmental information, and the Mean sensitivity of four section samples is all greater than 0.2, show recklessly Poplar annual ring growth it is quite sensitive to the response of hydrological variation, can use correlation function technique study diversiform-leaved poplar growth with the hydrology because Relationship between son, Mean correlation with master have the larger value, show the radial growth of annual ring between each strain It is more consistent, it is the result by similar hydrology Effects of Factors.
Embodiment
In Tarim River basin source stream area, based on the needs for protecting and restoring mainstream river ecosystem, using the river Ecological recovery system, source stream area constantly mention after the implementation of " large watershed " comprehensive management mode to the degree of protection of mainstream amount of water to be discharged Height, such as at 2011 of " large watershed " integrated management implementation, the anomaly percentage of source stream run-off was -4.1%, mainstream runoff The anomaly percentage of amount is 12.6%, and in 2008, the anomaly percentage of source stream run-off is -1.8%, mainstream run-off Anomaly percentage is -37.5%.In different periods, before " large watershed " integrated management is implemented (2006-2010), source stream flows into dry The run-off of stream accounts for the 18.0% of source stream run-off, and (2011-2017) increases to 22.3% after implementing, Tarimhe River source stream The river loss in area is mainly used for feeding the Water Requirement of two sides natural vegetation system, before " large watershed " integrated management implementation Afterwards, river loss in source stream area averagely increases 6.8%, and the water for being used for national economic system averagely reduces 13.4%, spy Not in 2011-2017, water diversion, which accounts for source stream, to be carried out the ratio of water and has dropped 24.2%, is in summary analyzed, in " large watershed " Front and back is implemented in integrated management, and Tarimhe River source stream area presents for the water diversion of national economy and reduces, and feeder two sides day The river damage amount and mainstream run-off of right vegetation system ecological water, which are presented, to be increased.
In Tarimhe River, the anomaly percentage of Lai Shuiliang is mainly negative value in 2006-2010, and in 2011-2017, Only there is negative value in the basin drought year in 2014, so that important water source is provided for mainstream natural vegetation ecological protection, from Ecology supplies water and the analysis of national economy water supply process, and in the high flow year, the accounting of Tarimhe River national economy diversion is lower than the low flow year, And the accounting that ecology supplies water is higher than the low flow year.Such as 2010 and 2017, the accounting that ecology supplies water is respectively 86.3% He 86.5%, and (low flow year) in 2009 and 2014, the accounting that ecology supplies water drops to 75.2% and 64.8%, this is because Low flow year, the primary national economy rigidity water demand for ensureing Tarimhe River;And the area natural vegetation wanes 3 years in water demand for natural service It just will appear significant degradation afterwards, therefore can suitably reduce ecological water supply in the low flow year, for ecological way of supplying water, low flow year master It to dissipate by river penetration recharge groundwater supply transpiration, and in the high flow year, river underground water is largely being fed Meanwhile mainly being overflowed by river and feeding ecological water, in conjunction with table 1 it is found that after " large watershed " integrated management implementation, Tarimhe River Ecological water supply increase 9.9%, wherein water amount of seepage and water of overflowing have increased separately 18.1% and 5.9%.
A large amount of research has shown that the ecosystem of Tarimhe River is restored and good protection after 2000, has The increase of the present species diversity of body surface, the lifting of level of ground water, improvement of water quality etc..
The average value of Tarimhe River natural vegetation coverage increases trend (Zvalue=3.11 > Z in significant0.05= 1.96), significant reduction trend (that is, soil presentation humidification) is presented in the average value of TVDI.In " large watershed " integrated management reality Front and back (2000-2010 and 2011-2017) is applied, the average value of natural vegetation coverage increases 19.1%, and TVDI is reduced 16.6%.According to the spatial distribution of Tarimhe River natural vegetation coverage variation tendency it is found that the natural plant of 65.4% area Coating cover degree is in increase trend, wherein the natural vegetation coverage of 33.7% area increases trend in significant, is mainly distributed on Apart from river compared with close, the preferable region of moisture condition.In addition, the natural vegetation coverage of 14.3% area becomes in significant decline Gesture, be mainly distributed on apart from river farther out, the poor region of moisture condition;In conjunction with field inspection, the area natural vegetation mainly with Based on aged diversiform-leaved poplar, and frequently suffer from pest and disease damage invasion.
In conjunction with the interpretation result to Tarimhe River remote sensing image it is found that in 2000-2010, the annual increment rate of cultivated area It is 5.0%, and 2010-2017 annual increment rate is reduced to 0.6%;Since natural vegetation has been occupied in arable land expansion, lead to 2000- The year slip of natural vegetation in 2010 is 0.7%;And 2010-2017 behind, the year slip decline of natural vegetation To 0.3%
In summary result of study is it is found that after " large watershed " integrated management implementation, and not only natural vegetation is opened up wasteland on a large scale It is effectively managed at the phenomenon that arable land, and natural vegetation coverage and TVDI are all in significant increase trend, are shown in tower The ecosystem in the wooden river is able to benign development
In Tarimhe River, diversiform-leaved poplar relies primarily on its growth of the underground water supply of river penetration supply.Therefore, diversiform-leaved poplar grows Speed can reflect the superiority and inferiority of Tarimhe River moisture condition.River penetration water is reconstructed using tree-ring width index, to announcement river ecological Hydrology evolution process is of great significance.By taking turns standard chronology and run-off two to 1957-2016 Tarimhe River diversiform-leaved poplar tree Person carries out Pearson correlation test it is found that the correlation of the two reaches extremely significant level, specifically, in Yingbazha and Wusiman section, diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel standard chronology and run-off all reach extremely significant correlativity, and (incidence coefficient is in Yingbazha For 0.390, Wusiman 0.400, the P < 0.01 in two sites).Therefore, (the 2011- after " large watershed " integrated management implementation 2016), with the increase of Tarimhe River run-off, diversiform-leaved poplar tree takes turns standard chronology compared to (2000-2010) before integrated management 19.4% is increased, and run-off increases 12.2% in corresponding two periods.Specifically, in Yingbazha section, diversiform-leaved poplar For tree wheel standard chronology 6.9% before and after " large watershed " integrated management, run-off increases 60.0%;In Wusiman section, diversiform-leaved poplar Tree wheel standard chronology and run-off have increased separately 28.6% and 86.5%.Therefore, after " large watershed " integrated management is implemented, tower In the wooden increased run-off in river effectively facilitated the growth of diversiform-leaved poplar, the functional stabilization for maintaining desert riverbank Populus Euphratica group is risen To key effect.
After " large watershed " integrated management is implemented, water resource-ecology-economy composite system of Tarim River basin, which is presented, to be coordinated And sustainable development.It is in particular in, 1, the ecological water supply of Tarim River basin, mainstream run-off (i.e. Tarimhe River), day Right vegetation coverage, the growth of diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel and GDP are all in apparent increase trend;2, shadow of the source stream area mankind's activity to water resource Remitted its fury is rung, natural vegetation area, which is presented, to be expanded;3, Tarimhe River (i.e. mainstream) natural vegetation is opened up wasteland into arable land on a large scale The phenomenon that effectively managed, soil present humidification (TVDI is substantially reduced).Therefore, " large watershed " of Tarim River basin is comprehensive Closing management system has good exemplary role and reference value to arid biogeographic zone analogy basin.
In Arid Area, river ethic is converted into underground water supply plant transpiration by river penetration, therefore in tower The wooden river diversiform-leaved poplar tree-ring width index and the relevance of river penetration water (incidence coefficient 0.843) variation are better than run-off (incidence coefficient 0.358).River water amount of seepage is reconstructed using tree ring, is not only had to the Eco-hydrological evolution process for disclosing Arid Area It is significant, also scientific basis is provided to the artificial regulatory scheme for formulating ecological water.In Tarimhe River, river penetration is (natural Supply) and ecological lock diversion overflow (artificial regulatory) be ecology water supply two ways.River is seeped according to diversiform-leaved poplar tree-ring width index The reconstruction result of water leakage, the angle efficiently utilized from ecological water, when Tarimhe River run-off is greater than 43.1 × 108m3When, Ying Tong Ecological lock is crossed to overflow to natural vegetation progress diversion.Therefore, under " large watershed " integrated management system, it should ensure that source stream Qu Xianggan It flows Tarimhe River amount of water to be discharged and is not less than 43.1 × 108m3
By " large watershed " integrated management system, overflows to Tarimhe River ecology lock diversion and optimize regulation, mode Are as follows: by overflow maintain riverbank twice level of ground water in 2-6m;The angle restored from natural vegetation ensures in 7-9 month to tower In the wooden river natural vegetation carries out 1 year 2-3 times, 15-20 days each duration overflowed;The angle protected from natural vegetation, 3 years Inside guarantee that natural vegetation overflow at least 1 time 15-20 days in 7-9 month, this research is arid biogeographic zone analogy basin The ecosystem and groundwater optimal management provide scientific basis
It should be noted that, in this document, relational terms such as first and second and the like are used merely to a reality Body or operation are distinguished with another entity or operation, are deposited without necessarily requiring or implying between these entities or operation In any actual relationship or order or sequence.Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or its any other variant are intended to Non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or equipment including a series of elements is not only wanted including those Element, but also including other elements that are not explicitly listed, or further include for this process, method, article or equipment Intrinsic element.
It although an embodiment of the present invention has been shown and described, for the ordinary skill in the art, can be with A variety of variations, modification, replacement can be carried out to these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention by understanding And modification, the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of river ecological Restoration system, including river ecological data analysis system and ecological implementation system, it is characterised in that: The analysis method of river ecological data analysis system specifically includes the following steps:
S1, water balanced calculation, water balanced calculation formula are as follows: RH=Wd+Rl+Fm-Rw
S2, water amount of seepage calculate, according to Darcy's law, the calculation formula of Tarim River water amount of seepage are as follows: QR=KW L·(hR-hG)/ΔL;
The separation reasoning of S3, climate change and mankind's activity to Southeast Tibetan Plateau amount: model stream is chosen, with 30 years before the river On the basis of flow, by construction schedule be superimposed trend model predict to obtain rear 20 years run-offs, be by mankind's activity with Natural runoff under climate change interference is smaller, is denoted as RHC(sli), secondly, in model stream, former 30 years yielding flows With divide run-off to be foundation, relational model between the two is constructed, then, according to the runoff magnitude after 20 years, by having constructed Model be calculated 20 years after climate change significantly affect under run-off, be denoted as RC(str), measured runoff after 20 years It is denoted as RM, N is total year, and then, climate change every year on average and mankind's activity are public to the calculating of source stream area runoff influence amount Formula are as follows:
Climate change effect amount every year on average: Δ RC=(RC(str)-RHC(sli))/N, effect of human activity amount every year on average: Δ RH =(RC(str)-RM)/N;
Firstly, building calculates RHC(sli)Model inputs first three ten annual flow data using 17 years periods of mainstream as calculation basis Model obtains the fit equation of runoff, and the average relative error of the equation is 4.14%, and fitting precision is preferable, therefore, after 20 years RHC(sli)It calculates and obtains using the model, secondly, building calculates RC(str)Relational model, utilize total runoff before current year Amount and run-off measured data, building model are as follows: Z=-40.2378-0.2668x+0.0016x2, R2=0.85;
In formula, Z represents mainstream annual runoff, and x indicates yielding flow, and the equation is that climate change generates strong shadow to source stream runoff Before sound, with the relational model between the runoff of mainstream, thus, RC(str)This is brought into using rear 20 years source streams run-off measured data Model, which calculates, to be obtained.
2. a kind of river ecological Restoration system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the reality of the ecology implementation system Applying method specifically includes the following steps:
T1, remote sensing images analysis: river is implemented to monitor and analyze using remote sensing image technology;
T2, tree ring sampling and processing: in order to analyze influence of the hydrological variation to diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel standard chronology, meet sampling and want It asks, is sampled choosing the diameter of a cross-section of a tree trunk 1.3 meters above the ground at river 500-1000m between the adult diversiform-leaved poplar of 30-50cm, chooses diversiform-leaved poplar 102 altogether , and each tree obtains sample core with crossing method, is altogether 191, and diversiform-leaved poplar tree core sample is taken back laboratory and is pasted, admittedly The pretreatments such as fixed, polishing, to meet cross feedback control demand, during establishing chronology, in order to most in tree-ring width chronologies Reservation low frequency variance more than possible, using negative exponential curve or the straight line without the positive gradient is fitted Tree-ring width sequence, To remove the growth tendency of trees itself, additionally using the variance of the further stable chronology of spline function of 2/3 sequence length, Standardization chronology is finally obtained, many studies have shown that, the standardization chronology of diversiform-leaved poplar tree wheel can be well reflected hydrological variation Information.
3. a kind of river ecological Restoration system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: R in the step S1 Chinese styleHFor Source stream run-off, WdFor Water diversion, R1For River loss, FmFor Water volume into Mainstream, RwFor Return water.
4. a kind of river ecological Restoration system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: QR is section in the step S2 Leakage, K are infiltration coefficient, and W is that the water surface is wide, and L is that river is long, and hR is river water level, are level of ground water under hG, and Δ L is urban river water Measure recharge groundwater path length.
5. a kind of river ecological Restoration system according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: be to ensure to hand in the step T2 Fork determines the accuracy in year, utilizes LINTABTM6Type tree ring analyzer carries out annual ring width measurement.
6. a kind of river ecological Restoration system according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: in the step T2 by COFECHA cross feedback control Quality Control Procedure carries out cross feedback control and examines and the amendment of increment, the foundation of standard chronology by ARSTAN program is completed.
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