CN110147956A - A kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis methods, and in particular to energy extraction field, steps are as follows for concrete analysis: S1, analysis well kick-gas blowout accident main reason and well kick-gas blowout accident influence factor；S2, well kick-gas blowout accident tree is established；S3, accident tree is converted into Bayesian network model with GeNIe；S4, quantitative analysis is carried out to Bayesian network model；S5, the crucial reason factor is found out；S6, it proposes to control the measure of the crucial reason factor.The present invention passes through to Accident Causes Analysis, it works out the gas blowout accident reason come is analyzed, reasonable blowout out of control accident tree and blowout out of control Bayesian network model are obtained, and quantitative analysis and three Significance Analysis are carried out to blowout out of control Bayesian network model, the crucial reason factor for causing gas blowout accident to occur is found out, key effect is played to control gas blowout accident.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to energy extraction technical fields, it is more particularly related to a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis
Method.
Background technique
Energy industry is that modern industry takes the lead industry, for the energy-output ratio in the present world, wherein petroleum and day
Right gas accounts for top priority.And with the continuous development of modern industrialization process, it is especially Chinese to developing as China
For family, the demand of oil gas will be increasing.But the exploitation in petroleum resources is determined by the various properties of oil gas
In the process, there is various risk factors, it will lead to and the well kick even serious accident of this consequence of blowout occurs.
Gas blowout accident refer to due to formation fluid through well head spray ground the phenomenon that caused by operating personnel's injures and deaths, environment
Pollution, petroleum resources waste and the damage of drilling equipment, and in oil and gas industry, gas blowout accident is compared in drilling failure
Common, coverage is big and one of the safety accident for causing Consequential Loss most serious.It, will be to the life of the people in case of blowout
Life property and the environment of surrounding cause very big influence, also form to the sustainable and healthy development of China's oil Gas Industry
It hinders.
Before the 1980s, for other developed countries, China's oil Gas Industry starting evening, development
Fall behind, without advanced drilling technology and drilling equipment, the gas blowout accident incidence in China can not be have always been high any more in this.80 years
Generation after, the drilling technologies such as overbalance, under balance pressure drilling from foreign countries introduce China, these Advanced Drilling Technologies use so that I
State's oil and gas industry has stepped major step in terms of drilling technology, effectively reduces the generation of gas blowout accident, but due to each
The factor of a aspect still cannot prevent the generation of gas blowout accident.
In the early 1980s, system safety engineering introduces China, by many large and medium-sized enterprise, China and trade management
The great attention of department, by digesting and assimilating external safety analytical method and safe evaluation method, machinery, chemical industry, metallurgy, aviation
The industries such as space flight start application risk analysis and evaluation method.And the safety standard and rules and regulations to various industries carry out
It formulates.Due in the recovery process of petroleum gas, there is many influence factors, which results in gas blowout accidents to deposit
In complexity and randomness, risk is difficult to show in the form of data.At present both at home and abroad to the exploitation of petroleum gas
The system research of process risk is fewer, is all to be studied in terms of drilling technology mostly, serves underground work, over the ground
Matter situation, drilling technology are analyzed, and are solved difficult point present in technique etc. and are carried out.At home, in drillng operation
Risk analysis method generally has following several:
(1) methods of fault tree (AccidentTreeAnalysis, abbreviation ATA) is also known as Fault Tree Analysis (referred to as
FTA), event tree analysis is the side for the research minuteman missile launch control system that telephone bell research institute was put forward for the first time in 1961
The fault tree analysis process of method China starts from 1978, it directly clearly describes the causality of accident, and thinking is clear, patrols
It is strong to collect property, is all qualitative analysis, and can quantitative analysis；
(2) safety rheology and mutation physical model, the model can divide the stage of gas blowout accident, use mathematical modulo
Type can calculate the danger level of gas blowout accident, draw Safety rheology schematic diagram and gas blowout accident is mutated schematic diagram, to blowout
Control has directive significance；
In the world also in what control gas blowout accident of constantly research, it is contemplated that blowout can be controlled on the hierarchy of skill, subtracted
The generation of few gas blowout accident.Meanwhile also someone finds out the major influence factors of gas blowout accident in other analysis methods of research.
(3) system dynamics (System Dynamics) is that the J.W.Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is taught in 20 generation
A kind of system simulation method of the discipline foundation fifties, it is based on systematology, cybernetics, information theory and the theory of large scale system
Mathematical model, it is the quantitative approach for studying high non-linearity, multivariable, more feedback complication systems, and this method discusses influence well
The factor that spray accident occurs, and the analog study of system has been carried out using mutation process of the Vensim to gas blowout accident.
(4) explain the structural model (Interpretative Structural Model-ing abbreviation ISM) is U.S. J ﹒ China
Fil professor developed in a kind of method as analysis complex socioeconomic system relevant issues in 1973, with system work
The ISM method of journey is studied the factor that oil gas field gas blowout accident occurs is influenced, and the interpretative structural modeling mould of gas blowout accident is established
Type, obtained one be methodically arranged, train of thought clearly 6 layers of Multilevel Hierarchical system, to the immediate cause of oil gas field gas blowout accident,
It connects reason and underlying causes is defined.
We are typically all in the state of going measurement things whether to be in safety with risk, and risk is the possibility that accident occurs
A kind of measurement of property and the extent of damage.Risk analysis is after going to estimate accident generation using engineering technology and mathematics technological means
Fruit and frequency.China has developed the various methods for quantitative risk analysis, most importantly event tree in conventional method
Analysis.The result of these analyticals is generally all used to carry out risk assessment, to assess prevention or mitigate damage sequence
Safety.Traditional risk assessment technology all carries out in a static condition, but when operation or operation change, wind
Danger can also change, this allows for traditional analysis method existing defects.In addition, traditional risk assessment technology utilizes general thing
Part fault data, this makes them not specific, also brings uncertainty to result, these limitations result in dynamic risk assessment
The development of method.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome the drawbacks described above of the prior art, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis side
Method, by being directed to the well kick-gas blowout accident occurred in shale gas development process, in shale gas development process from well kick accident
It performs an analysis to a series of processes such as gas blowout accident, proposes its Accident-causing factor, then carry out accident tree modeling, accident tree is passed through
GeNie software is converted into Bayesian network model, then carries out quantitative analysis reason after behaviour of going forward side by side to Bayesian network model and examine
It is disconnected, each influence factor for causing to cause gas blowout accident in shale gas development process is shown, and find out the crucial reason factor, then
It proposes the crucial measure for guiding the factor of control, key effect is played to control gas blowout accident.
To achieve the above object, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method, specific to divide
Steps are as follows for analysis:
S1, analysis well kick-gas blowout accident main reason and well kick-gas blowout accident influence factor；
S2, well kick-gas blowout accident tree is established；It analyzes in drilling operation course, based on three-level well control, to well kick-well
The reason of spray accident occurs is sought and is extended, and is listed multiple elementary events and multiple intermediate events, is determined top event, so
FreeFTA software is used afterwards, and accident tree establishment is carried out to elementary event, intermediate event and the top event listed；
S3, accident tree is converted into Bayesian network model with GeNIe；Accident tree is converted to Bayesian network model
Method is as follows:
S3.1, a node corresponding with each elementary event in accident tree, definition are created in Bayesian network
Each elementary event only establishes a node if there is duplicate elementary event；
S3.2, the evidence for defining elementary event in Bayesian network, i.e. probability；
S3.3, the corresponding node in Bayesian network is established according to the logic gate in accident tree, and according to the logic gate
Outgoing event is named the corresponding node in Bayesian network, only establishes a node for duplicate outgoing event；
Node in S3.4, connection Bayesian network, the connection relationship phase with elementary event in accident tree and intermediate event
It is corresponding；
S3.5, the conditional probability distribution of connecting node each in Bayesian network is defined, corresponds to accident tree
With door nor gate；
The accident tree established in step S2 is converted and integrated by above step, obtains blowout out of control Bayesian network
Network model；
S4, quantitative analysis is carried out to Bayesian network model；Utilize the consequence new probability formula in Bayesian network model, meter
Calculate the probability of happening of node T；
Bayesian formula is used again, calculates the posterior probability of root node；
S5, the crucial reason factor is found out；With the Significance Analysis technology of Bayesian network model, with data in step S4
Based on, show that i-th of root node Xi to the degree of correlation of T probability of happening, takes risk promotion value different degree, risk decreasing value important
Different degree is measured in degree and variation, and then the forward elementary event of totally three different degrees proposes to build as the crucial reason factor to it
View measure, comprehensive three different degrees are as a result, find out the crucial reason factor；
S6, it proposes to control the measure of the crucial reason factor.
In a preferred embodiment, in the step S1, from geological design, engineering design, well control facility, well control
Totally five aspects carry out risk dynamic analysis for technology and personnel psychology.
In a preferred embodiment, in the step S2, the setting of three-level well control are as follows:
Level-one well control: carrying out balancing layer pressure by head of liquid in well, so that without in formation fluid invaded formation, nothing
Overflow generates；
Second level well control: borehole pressure is unbalance, need to close well head blowout control equipment in time, restores well internal pressure with reasonable well killing fluid
Dynamic balance；
Three-level well control: occurring blowout, out of hand, restores the control to blowout using certain technology and equipment, and
Usually described blowout is speedily carried out rescue work.
In a preferred embodiment, in the step S4, node T probability of happening is indicated with P (T=1), is calculated
Formula are as follows:
By the way that P (T=1)=0.00015 is calculated.
In a preferred embodiment, in the step S4, Bayesian formula is as follows:
P (B) is prior probability in formula, and P (AB) is posterior probability, and P (BA) is conditional probability.
In a preferred embodiment, in the step S5, risk promotion value is important for evaluating elementary event hair
To the influence degree size of blowout out of control probability of happening whether raw, calculation formula is as follows:
In a preferred embodiment, in the step S5, risk decreasing value different degree is for evaluating elementary event
With the ratio between the size of blowout out of control probability of happening under prior probability distribution under the situation not occurred, calculation formula is as follows:
In a preferred embodiment, in the step S5, variation measures different degree and exists for evaluating elementary event
Whether to the amplitude of variation of blowout out of control probability of happening value in the case where occurring, calculation formula is as follows:
IBW=MAX { P (T=1 | Xi=1), P (T=1 | Xi=0) }-MIN P (T=1 | Xi=1), P (T=1 | Xi=0) },
I=1,2 ... ..., n.
Technical effect and advantage of the invention:
1, the present invention is set by the geological design, the engineering that are directed in well kick-gas blowout accident in shale gas development process
Meter, well control facility, well control technique and this five aspects of personnel psychology have carried out Accident Causes Analysis, and use FreeFTA software
It works out with GeNie software the gas blowout accident reason come is analyzed, has obtained reasonable blowout out of control accident tree and blowout
Bayesian network model out of control, and quantitative analysis is carried out to blowout out of control Bayesian network model, pass through the risk being calculated
Three aspect analyses of different degree are measured in promotion value different degree, risk decreasing value different degree and variation, find out and gas blowout accident is caused to send out
The raw crucial reason factor proposes to control this then in conjunction with China's shale gas exploitation technology, drilling equipment technology and exploitation actuality
The measure of a little key reason factors plays key effect to control gas blowout accident；
2, the present invention attempts to apply Bayes's series of network in well kick-gas blowout accident research, achieves and reasonably comments
Valence is as a result, Bayesian network can not only explain the causality in well kick-gas blowout accident research between index, and can pass through
The form of three kinds of different degree tables expresses contribution of each index in well kick-gas blowout accident generation, development process, relative to it
His well kick-gas blowout accident analysis method, such as analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fault tree analysis process, Bayesian network have very high visitor
The property seen；
3, the present invention is based on three-level well control, from geological design, engineering design, well control facility, well control technique and personnel
Five aspects such as psychology have carried out Accident Causes Analysis, 31 elementary events and 10 intermediate events are had found, then with 31
Elementary event has carried out accident tree establishment with FreeFta software, then use GeNie software with based on 10 intermediate events
It is converted to the accident tree come is compiled, quantitative analysis then is carried out to it, from three different degrees: risk promotion value is important
Degree, risk decreasing value different degree and variation measure different degree and find out and analyze the crucial reason factor, to the crucial reason found out
The factor proposes effective suggestion and measure.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is blowout out of control accident tree schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 2 is gas blowout accident tree schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 3 is gas blowout accident tree schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 4 is overflow accident tree schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 5 is closing well failure accidents tree schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 6 is kill-job failure accidents tree schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 7 is blowout out of control Bayesian network model schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 8 is risk promotion value different degree schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 9 is risk decreasing value different degree schematic diagram of the invention.
Figure 10 is that different degree schematic diagram is measured in variation of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
A kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method, steps are as follows for concrete analysis:
S1, analysis well kick-gas blowout accident main reason and well kick-gas blowout accident influence factor；From geological design, work
Totally five aspects carry out risk dynamic analysis for journey design, well control facility, well control technique and personnel psychology；
Gas blowout accident reason is as follows:
Firstly, gas blowout accident must satisfy following three conditions:
1) circulation between stratum is good；
2) with the presence of fluid in stratum；
3) it bores and meets high pressure formation.
In general, the reason of blowout is caused to have the following:
1) strata pressure grasps inaccuracy；
2) the drilling fluid amount of being pumped into is insufficient；
3) drilling fluid density reduces；
4) when pulling out of hole, because pulling out of hole swabbing pressure effect that is too fast and being formed；
5) control measure after finding overflow are improper or do not take control measure；
6) well head does not install preventer；
7) well structure design is unreasonable；
8) it is gone here and there on oil gas；
9) well-control equipment installs undesirable standard.
Gas blowout accident omen:
Generally before well kick, gas blowout accident occur, whether underground can be judged with output is returned according to property of drilling fluid
Occur leakage, this just need operating personnel have experience abundant and profession knowledge and skills, find in advance these omens and
It takes it effective control measure before developing seriously to prevent well kick, gas blowout accident, and the omen of gas blowout accident has following
Several points:
1) mud pit level increases:
When no change has taken place for mud pumpage, if formation fluid invades pit shaft, will get up with drilling fluid mixed,
And accelerate to return thereon, therefore the discharge rate of drilling fluid will increase, and result in drilling fluid returns output than amount that slush pump is pumped into
It is more, cause mud pit level to increase；
2) drilling speed is accelerated:
When drilling, since reservoir pressure is higher than non-reservoir pressure, borehole pressure difference is smaller, and drilling speed becomes faster；
3) drilling fluid return speed increases:
When the fluid for invading pit shaft is gas, because gas has dilatancy, as long as the pressure that gas is subject to is got over
Small, volume is bigger, that is to say, that gas can be closer with the distance apart from ground, and volume will be bigger, and such case causes
Consequence be exactly that the speed returned out from well head of drilling fluid is accelerated；
4) suspending weight increases or decreases when creeping into, and mud pump pressure rises or falls:
When being drilled into high pressure formation, bottom pressure is increased because of pressure jump, this just reduces suspending weight, the pressure of slush pump
Power can also increase.When returning on formation fluid, since gas volume can change because of pressure, its volume can also change, so
The averag density of liquid column can reduce in annular space, so as to cause the reduction of drill pump pressure, and drilling tool buoyancy in drilling fluid
Reduction will increase the weight suspension of drilling tool；
5) property of drilling fluid changes:
Formation fluid invades pit shaft, meeting and drilling fluid mixed, impacts；
6) after circulation stops, wellhead drilling fluid is uninterruptedly excessive:
Borehole fluid intrusion, strata pressure, which is greater than, applies pressure, then spillway discharge can be increasing.
Gas blowout accident classification
After occurring generally according to gas blowout accident, processing difficulty size, influence degree of harm etc. are divided into level Four:
Level-one gas blowout accident (I grade)
Blowout out of control occurs, causes exceeded toxic and harmful gas loss, or scurry into underground mineral digging tunnel, blowout occurs
And with oil gas explosion, kindling, seriously jeopardize the security of the lives and property of on-site personnel and operation field nearby residents；
Second level gas blowout accident (II grade)
Blowout out of control occurs, vomits fluid in well and disaster contact scar is caused to rivers, lake, ocean and environment；
Three-level gas blowout accident (III grade)
Blowout occurs for oil/gas well, by actively taking kill-job measure, does not set up wellbore pressure balance, collection still in 24 hours
Subsidiary enterprise, company, group is difficult to be completed in a short time the gas blowout accident of accident treatment；
Level Four gas blowout accident (IV grade)
Occur general blowout, subsidiary enterprise, group company can at 24 hours the built-in pressure balanced accident of vertical cylinder；
Gas blowout accident reason factor analysis:
1. geological design defect
1) three kinds of pressure traverses, especially accurate formation pressure data are not provided；
2) data such as pressure, the water injection rate of surrounding water injection well are not provided；
3) data that accident occurs in the past is not provided；
4) surrounding enviroment data is not provided.
2. engineering design defect
1) well structure design is unreasonable.Surface pipe is not deep enough, and well occurs when if creeping into abnormal formation pressure
Gush blowout, formation fluid will spray under the action of pressure difference from well head so that hypertonia and can not implement effective
Closing well operation；In the well bore design having, technical measure is not taken bad ground, such as without tripping in technology set
Pipe, is crept into the case where naked eye for a long time, is easy stratum and the high pressure formation of leakage if it exists, is easy for causing thing
Therefore；
2) drilling fluid density design is improper；
3) blowout hookup design is unreasonable；Strata pressure exceeds the upper pressure limit of preventer；Or not due to drilling equipment
Foot, there are idea of leaving things to chance, well heads to be not equipped with preventer by administrative staff；And the installation of auxiliary open flow facility is not inconsistent standardization；
4) barite, blanc fixe deposit are not able to satisfy well control requirement；
5) accident is not directed to adopt an effective measure.
3. well control measure is not perfect, does not implement
1) insufficient to well kick-gas blowout accident recognizing dangers, do not take specific aim measure；
2) swabbing pressure due to caused by trip-out is too fast is excessive；
3) it pulls out of hole and drilling fluid charge or does not fill in time；
4) the empty well time is too long, and nobody observes well head；The time that empty well is spent is longer, is often as drill string and event occurs
After barrier the reason of the maintenance or technical measures of equipment, because there is no circulating fluid for a long time, gas is caused to have time enough
It moves up, while mobile, gas volume can expand, and cause to return out the increase of drilling well liquid measure, will if not found in time
Form blowout；
5) adjacent water injection well does not stop to infuse or do not depressurize.In the development process of petroleum gas, because will be from underground mining
Resource will result in the reduction of strata pressure, and in order to guarantee that exploitation can go on smoothly and prevent and treat the generation of accident, generally all can
Water injection work is carried out to reservoir.If without stopping filling the water as requested, or stopping water filling without releasing stress, just hold very much
Easily cause accident；
6) contaminated product excess or contaminated product are uneven in drilling fluid, make head of liquid lower than pore pressure in stratum；
7) leakage is improper without processing or treatment measures in time.When leakage occurs, staff should take control immediately
Measure carries out plugging operations, otherwise can be increasingly severe, develops into well kick even blowout.
4. closing well is not in time or after closing well, operating personnel's operation error
1) operating personnel fails to find overflow in time or has no ability to the sign of identification overflow；
2) it is reported not in time after finding overflow；
3) worry that bit freezing occurs, robbed drilling tool to safe well section；
4) worry that kill-job is difficult, grab drilling tool；
5) operating personnel is unfamiliar with operating process；
6) well control device breaks down；
7) not in time, the pressure of formation fluid is greater than kill-job hydraulic coupling for kill-job operation, will lead to blowout out of control, or because of corruption
The reasons such as erosion, erosion cause drilling equipment failure to lead to blowout out of control；
8) it is unreasonable to be directed to the kill-job measure that different situations are taken by operating personnel.
5. operating personnel there are idea of leaving things to chance, operates against regulations in operation process
Operating personnel accident is understood there is a phenomenon where before it is not deep enough, think little of in attitude well control work, to safety advise
Chapter system is unclear, and the well control improper measures taken, specific aim is not strong, or does not take well control measure, further results in thing
Therefore generation.Therefore, in terms of the safety attitude education, technical training and specification post operation that carry out operating personnel.
S2, well kick-gas blowout accident tree is established；It analyzes in drilling operation course, based on three-level well control, to well kick-well
The reason of spray accident occurs is sought and is extended；
31 elementary events and 10 intermediate events are listed altogether, and see Table 1 for details, table 2, determines top event；
Three-level well control is as follows:
Level-one well control: carrying out balancing layer pressure by head of liquid in well, so that without in formation fluid invaded formation, nothing
Overflow generates；
Second level well control: borehole pressure is unbalance, need to close well head blowout control equipment in time, restores well internal pressure with reasonable well killing fluid
Dynamic balance；
Three-level well control: occurring blowout, out of hand, restores the control to blowout using certain technology and equipment, and
Usually described blowout is speedily carried out rescue work.
See Table 2 for details for the prior probability of each elementary event:
1 intermediate event of table number
2 elementary event of table number and its probability
Using FreeFTA software, accident tree establishment is carried out to elementary event, intermediate event and the top event listed, such as
Shown in Fig. 1-6；
S3, accident tree is converted into Bayesian network model with GeNIe；Accident tree is converted to Bayesian network model
Method is as follows:
S3.1, a node corresponding with each elementary event in accident tree, definition are created in Bayesian network
(name or number) each elementary event only establishes a node if there is duplicate elementary event；
S3.2, the evidence for defining elementary event in Bayesian network, i.e. probability；
S3.3, the corresponding node in Bayesian network is established according to the logic gate in accident tree, and according to the logic gate
Outgoing event is named the corresponding node in Bayesian network, only establishes a node for duplicate outgoing event；
Node in S3.4, connection Bayesian network, the connection relationship phase with elementary event in accident tree and intermediate event
It is corresponding；
S3.5, the conditional probability distribution of connecting node each in Bayesian network is defined, corresponds to accident tree
With door nor gate；
The accident tree established in step S2 is converted and integrated by above step, obtains blowout out of control Bayesian network
Network model, as shown in Figure 7；
Wherein, M2, M3, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12 are or door tie point M1, M4, and M5, M6 and T are and Men Lian
Contact；
S4, quantitative analysis is carried out to Bayesian network model；Utilize the consequence new probability formula in Bayesian network model, meter
The probability of happening of node T is calculated, node T probability of happening is indicated with P (T=1), its calculation formula is:
By the way that P (T=1)=0.00015 is calculated；
Bayesian formula is used again, calculates the posterior probability of root node, Bayesian formula is as follows:
P (B) is prior probability in formula, and P (A | B) is posterior probability, and P (B | A) it is conditional probability；
The posterior probability of root node can be calculated by Bayesian formula, see Table 3 for details；3 root node events posteriority of table is general
Rate
S5, the crucial reason factor is found out；With the Significance Analysis technology of Bayesian network model, with data in step S4
Based on, show that i-th of root node Xi to the degree of correlation of T probability of happening, takes risk promotion value different degree, risk decreasing value important
Different degree is measured in degree and variation, and then the forward elementary event of totally three different degrees proposes to build as the crucial reason factor to it
View measure, comprehensive three different degrees are as a result, find out the crucial reason factor；
Risk promotion is worth important big to the influence degree of blowout out of control probability of happening whether elementary event occurs for evaluating
Small, calculation formula is as follows:
By the data being calculated, line chart is drawn, as shown in Figure 8；As can be seen from the figure X2, X4, X7, X8, X9,
These events of X13, X17, X18, X19, X20, X22, X26, X27 are larger to the influence degree of blowout out of control (T), these basic things
Part will lead to well shooting, overflow, kill-job failure and closing well failure, further cause the generation of blowout out of control；
Risk decreasing value different degree is lost under the situation that elementary event does not occur with blowout under prior probability distribution for evaluating
The ratio between the size of probability of happening is controlled, calculation formula is as follows:
By the data being calculated, line chart is drawn, as shown in figure 9, it can be seen from the figure that being more than that 1 event has
Tri- events of X14, X21, X25 illustrate that this three events are adverse events for blowout out of control (T), promote overflow and
The generation of closing well, kill-job three leaf nodes of failure；
Variation measures different degree for evaluating elementary event in the case where whether occurring to blowout out of control probability of happening value
Amplitude of variation, calculation formula is as follows:
IBW=MAX { P (T=1 | Xi=1), P (T=1 | Xi=0) }-MIN P (T=1 | Xi=1), P (T=1 | Xi=0) },
I=1,2 ... ..., n；
By the data being calculated, line chart is drawn, as shown in Figure 10；
As can be seen from the figure X2, X4, X7, X8, X9, X13, X17, X18, X19, X20, X22, X26, X27 (spray oil gas
Concentration is not inconsistent standardization, sprays oil gas and meets open fire, do not connect relief line, do not connect kill line, do not install preventer, aspirates
Pressure is excessive, bores and meets high pressure formation, and Employee Security consciousness is low, and Employee Security technical ability is insufficient, and annular space well killing fluid density is excessive, prevents
Spray apparatus failure, throttle valve failure, kill-job failure of pump, hydraulic anchor failure) these events occur whether for T (blowout out of control) hair
Raw impact probability amplitude influences are larger.Illustrate that well shooting, overflow, kill-job are failed and closed whether these elementary events occur
The probability of happening of well failure has very big influence, therefore great care is needed in drillng operation, takes it effective control
Measure prevents the generation of gas blowout accident；
Comprehensive three different degrees are as a result, we have found the following crucial reason factor:
It sprays gas concentration and is not inconsistent standardization, spray oil gas and meet open fire, do not connect relief line, do not connect kill line,
Preventer is not installed, swabbing pressure is excessive, bores and meets high pressure formation, and Employee Security consciousness is low, and Employee Security technical ability is insufficient, annular space
Well killing fluid density is excessive, preventer failure, throttle valve failure, kill-job failure of pump, hydraulic anchor failure；
Wherein bore meet high pressure formation be not artificial governing factor, still do not consider its influence.And the above crucial reason because
In son, wherein swabbing pressure is excessive, Employee Security consciousness is insufficient, Employee Security technical ability is insufficient, and these three crucial reason factors can be made
At overflow and the generation of well kick accident, and these three crucial reason factors are directed to, the present invention proposes that following measures are controlled
System, enterprise should reinforce safety education, improve awareness of safety, safety attitude and the Safety skill of employee, employee is made to take appointment with certificate；Really
Protect operating personnel can clearly recognize pressure and hydrostatic pressure represented by instrument and strata pressure display and they between not
The sign of balance, in case of overflow, it is necessary to report responsible person immediately and take control measure at once, prevent from further sending out
Transform into well kick；The problem excessive for swabbing pressure the main reason is that being caused due to too fast when playing drill string, therefore is proposed following
Measure is come the problem that prevents swabbing pressure excessive: when pulling out of hole, reducing trip-out speed to reduce swabbing action to minimum value；
In the above crucial reason factor, relief line is not connect, kill line is not connect, preventer, blowout prevention are not installed
Device failure, throttle valve failure, kill-job failure of pump, hydraulic anchor failure, these crucial reason factors can cause closing well and kill-job out of control,
The generation of gas blowout accident is further resulted in, and these crucial reason factors are substantially Equipment, cause the original of equipment fault
Because there are four factors: pressure factor, vibration factor, erosion factor, corrosion factor.Therefore it is directed to the above reason, propose following arrange
It applies: controlling the corrosivity of drilling fluid, interior erosion resistant coating is applied in drilling tool and carry out Corrosion monitoring, mounting shock absorber, pneumatic hammer.This
Outside, it should also reinforce the daily maintenance and management of equipment, reinforce the dynamics of scene flaw detection, it is necessary to if, it can be to easy to damage
Drilling equipment take the processing mode of redundancy, take novel drilling equipment and technology.
Generally after blowout occurs for well site, formation fluid is sprayed from well head, can carry a large amount of inflammable gas, generally
There can be open fire always in spout to light the natural gas of open flow nozzle ejection, prevent Gas diffusion to cause human life
Safety, and when general blowout, open flow nozzle can first spray mud, it is possible to open fire be put out, if subsequent sparking fails and air
In concentration of natural gas light a fire or spray natural gas when reaching lower explosion limit and meet Mars etc., will result in well shooting, and be directed to
In this factor, the level Four for proposing well site is got angry, as follows:
Level-one is got angry: when processing gas blowout accident, getting angry for scene urgent need is got angry for level-one, is passed through before getting angry by drilling contractor
Reason fills in " application paper book of getting angry ", sends up to the higher level for approval by regulation, can get angry after approval, health, safety and environment pipe before getting angry
The reason committee is responsible for organization security and fire fighter formulates fire prevention measure, can get angry；
Second level is got angry: use oil base drilling fluid, occur oil gas invade or well kick under the conditions of, away from getting angry in 50 meters of well head, and
Tank field is got angry, 1, get angry before by platform manager fill in " application paper of getting angry " report drilling contractor executive manager ratify after, side
Can get angry, 2, by HSE management group organize related personnel formulate the precautionary measures, can get angry；
Three-level is got angry: being invaded to get angry with the well head under the conditions of well kick there is no oil gas and be got angry for three-level, by drilling well before getting angry
Team HSE conservator fills in " application paper book of getting angry ", and report platform manager approval can get angry；
Level Four is got angry: gets angry in the well site in addition to one, two, three is got angry and gets angry for level Four, drilling team HSE administrator organizer
Member guards range of getting angry, and takes precautions against fire, and can get angry.
S6, it proposes to control the measure of the crucial reason factor；
In conclusion present invention proposition is suggested below:
1) reply employee reinforces safety education；
2) drillng operation is carried out in strict accordance with rules and regulations:
3) operating personnel must take appointment with certificate；
4) guarantee drilling equipment integrality；
5) corrosivity of drilling fluid is controlled；
6) require staff that can clearly recognize unbalanced aobvious between various expression liquid column hydrostatic pressure and strata pressures
Show；
If 7) overflow, staff must take immediate steps；
8) reasonable drilling fluid density is deployed；
9) the termination of pumping time cannot be too long, if termination of pumping overlong time, needs to fill drilling fluid in time；
10) trip-out speed is reduced to reduce swabbing action to minimum；
11) novel well-control equipment and technology are used；
12) in strict accordance with well site level Four get angry criterion carry out fire operation；
Using the above suggested measures, will effectively reduce in drilling process because of drilling fluid density, trip-out swabbing pressure, member
Overflow caused by terms of work awareness of safety and technical ability and well kick accident take measure energy suggested by the above in terms of well-control equipment
The validity for effectively reinforcing well-control equipment, guarantees the normal operation of well-control equipment, prevents the generation of well kick-gas blowout accident.
The several points that should finally illustrate are: firstly, in the description of the present application, it should be noted that unless otherwise prescribed and
It limits, term " installation ", " connected ", " connection " shall be understood in a broad sense, can be mechanical connection or electrical connection, be also possible to two
Connection inside element, can be directly connected, and "upper", "lower", "left", "right" etc. are only used for indicating relative positional relationship, when
The absolute position for being described object changes, then relative positional relationship may change；
Secondly: the present invention discloses in embodiment attached drawing, relates only to the structure being related to the embodiment of the present disclosure, other knots
Structure, which can refer to, to be commonly designed, and under not conflict situations, the same embodiment of the present invention and different embodiments be can be combined with each other；
Last: the foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to restrict the invention, all in the present invention
Spirit and principle within, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on, should be included in protection scope of the present invention it
It is interior.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method, which is characterized in that steps are as follows for concrete analysis:
S1, analysis well kick-gas blowout accident main reason and well kick-gas blowout accident influence factor；
S2, well kick-gas blowout accident tree is established；It analyzes in drilling operation course, based on three-level well control, to well kick-blowout thing
Therefore the reason of occurring, is sought and is extended, and is listed multiple elementary events and multiple intermediate events, is determined top event, then adopt
With FreeFTA software, accident tree establishment is carried out to elementary event, intermediate event and the top event listed；
S3, accident tree is converted into Bayesian network model with GeNIe；The method that accident tree is converted to Bayesian network model
It is as follows:
S3.1, a node corresponding with each elementary event in accident tree is created in Bayesian network, definition is each
Elementary event only establishes a node if there is duplicate elementary event；
S3.2, the evidence for defining elementary event in Bayesian network, i.e. probability；
S3.3, the corresponding node in Bayesian network is established according to the logic gate in accident tree, and according to the output of the logic gate
Event is named the corresponding node in Bayesian network, only establishes a node for duplicate outgoing event；
Node in S3.4, connection Bayesian network, it is corresponding with the connection relationship of elementary event in accident tree and intermediate event；
S3.5, the conditional probability distribution of connecting node each in Bayesian network is defined, correspond to accident tree with
Door nor gate；
The accident tree established in step S2 is converted and integrated by above step, obtains blowout out of control Bayesian network mould
Type；
S4, quantitative analysis is carried out to Bayesian network model；Using the consequence new probability formula in Bayesian network model, calculate
The probability of happening of node T；
Bayesian formula is used again, calculates the posterior probability of root node；
S5, the crucial reason factor is found out；With the Significance Analysis technology of Bayesian network model, using data in step S4 as base
Plinth shows i-th of root node Xi to the degree of correlation of T probability of happening, take risk promotion value different degree, risk decreasing value different degree and
Different degree is measured in variation, and then the forward elementary event of totally three different degrees is advised to it as the crucial reason factor and is arranged
It applies, comprehensive three different degrees are as a result, find out the crucial reason factor；
S6, it proposes to control the measure of the crucial reason factor.
2. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S1, from
Totally five aspects carry out risk dynamic analysis for geological design, engineering design, well control facility, well control technique and personnel psychology.
3. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S2, three
Grade well control setting are as follows:
Level-one well control: carrying out balancing layer pressure by head of liquid in well, so that without in formation fluid invaded formation, no overflow
It generates；
Second level well control: borehole pressure is unbalance, need to close well head blowout control equipment in time, and it is flat to restore borehole pressure with reasonable well killing fluid
Weighing apparatus；
Three-level well control: occurring blowout, out of hand, restores the control to blowout using certain technology and equipment, and usually
Described blowout is speedily carried out rescue work.
4. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S4, section
P (T=1) expression of point T probability of happening, its calculation formula is:
By the way that P (T=1)=0.00015 is calculated.
5. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S4, shellfish
This formula of leaf is as follows:
P (B) is prior probability in formula, and P (A | B) is posterior probability, and P (B | A) it is conditional probability.
6. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S5, wind
Dangerous promotion is worth the important influence degree size for evaluating whether elementary event occurs to blowout out of control probability of happening, calculates public
Formula is as follows:
7. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S5, wind
Dangerous decreasing value different degree is used to evaluate under the situation that elementary event does not occur and blowout out of control probability of happening under prior probability distribution
The ratio between size, calculation formula is as follows:
8. a kind of gas blowout accident risk analysis method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S5, become
Change and measure different degree for evaluating elementary event in the case where whether occurring to the amplitude of variation of blowout out of control probability of happening value,
Its calculation formula is as follows:
IBW=MAX { P (T=1 | Xi=1), P (T=1 | Xi=0) }-MIN P (T=1 | Xi=1), P (T=1 | Xi=0) }, i=
1,2 ... ..., n.
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