CN110097266A - A kind of process industry equipment military service safety risk estimating method based on cloud model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of, and the process industry based on cloud model equips military service safety risk estimating method, by the possibility occurrence cloud model, sequence severity cloud model and overall merit cloud model of establishing complex equipment risk factors, risk evaluation result is quantified using cloud model in evaluation method, the uncertainty of evaluation procedure is featured in terms of the ambiguity of evaluation language and randomness two, so that risk evaluation result has more objectivity and accuracy;On the basis of evaluation information, the weight of uncertainty and sequence severity in risk factors is determined using entropy assessment, each risk evaluation result shared weight in risk assessment is determined using neighbour's propagation clustering method, generate the risk factors evaluation cloud model of each risk factors, group effectiveness is maximized when analyzing ultimate risk assessment result, individual is minimized simultaneously, so that the analysis result obtained is eliminated subjectivity and uncertainty in risk assessment, keeps risk evaluation result more accurate.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to process industries to equip military service security risk assessment field, and in particular to a kind of stream based on cloud model
Journey industrial equipment military service safety risk estimating method.
Background technique
Modern process industry system, which is one, has the characteristics that the distributed complex Mechatronic Systems of device cluster, production system are related
Connection relationship is complicated, the high feature of the degree of coupling.Since the production process of process industry is complicated and mostly high temperature and pressure or strong acid is strong
The severe production status such as alkali, production medium majority have toxicity and flammable and explosive, once equipment of being on active service breaks down, will bring
Very big property loss and casualties.A possibility that equipment of being on active service accident can occur for risk assessment is assessed, and is
Enterprise reduces production risk and provides the method for a set of science, provides foundation for policymaker, and risk is carried out early stage accident occurs
Control, has very important significance to the safe and stable operation of process industry.But in current method only by expert
Risk estimation information is simply weighted and averaged, and does not fully consider the ambiguity and randomness of information given by expert,
It is difficult to make accurate judgement to these evaluation informations, so that final risk evaluation result has stronger subjectivity.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of, and the process industry based on cloud model equips military service safety risk estimating method,
With overcome the deficiencies in the prior art.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:
A kind of process industry equipment military service safety risk estimating method based on cloud model, comprising the following steps:
Step 1), using cloud model as theoretical basis, standard cloud is mutually generated with Fibonacci method in conjunction with cloud model generation method;
Step 2) carries out M risk assessment to risk factors present in equipment of being on active service using semantic variant, obtains M
Risk evaluation result, each risk evaluation result include possibility occurrence risk evaluation result and sequence severity risk assessment knot
Fruit;The standard cloud obtained according to step 1) will carry out all risk evaluation results that risk assessment obtains using semantic variant and convert
For the M risk assessment value indicated by cloud model parameter;
Step 3), according to entropy assessment calculation risk assessment result risk factor possibility occurrence weight and sequence severity
Weight, and according to possibility occurrence weight and sequence severity weight to step 2) obtained in risk assessment value assemble
Cloud model is evaluated to a risk factors;
Step 4) clusters the risk factors evaluation cloud model in step 3) using neighbour's propagation clustering algorithm, according to
Each risk evaluation result weight shared in all risk evaluation results is calculated according to the number of members of each class cluster, and according to each wind
Dangerous assessment result weight shared in all risk evaluation results is merged to obtain risk factors comprehensive to risk evaluation result
Close evaluation cloud;
Step 5), the similarity for calculating each risk factors overall merit cloud and standard cloud, can be completed each risk factors
Risk assessment.
Further, each risk assessment value includes possibility occurrence risk assessment value and sequence severity risk assessment
Value.
Further, Natural language evaluation is divided into 5 grades, it is corresponding to generate each grade using Fibonacci method
Standard cloud.
Further, it is first determined the standard cloud number of required generation, then according to previous standard cloud and latter standard
Expectation, entropy and the super entropy of cloud complete the generation of standard cloud parameter at the principle of golden section.
Further, in step 2), the semantic variant includes very low, low, general, high and very high.
Further, standard cloud parameter includes desired Ex, entropy En and super entropy He.
Further, which is characterized in that correspond five standard clouds and five semantic variants to M risk assessment knot
Fruit is converted to the risk assessment value indicated by expectation Ex, entropy En and the super entropy He of cloud model.
Further, in step 3), wind is measured by comparing the diversity factor between risk indicator and each risk assessment value
The different degree of dangerous index comes the weight of two risks and assumptions results of calculation risk factor, the i.e. possibility occurrence of risk factors
With the weight of sequence severity:
Wherein: fijIt is the feature specific gravity of i-th risk assessment under j-th of risks and assumptions result;vijIt is that i-th risk is commented
Estimate the decision value of j-th of risks and assumptions result in result,It is the sum of all decision values under j-th of risks and assumptions result,
hjIt is the entropy of j-th of risks and assumptions result, wherein 0≤hj≤ 1,0≤wj≤ 1, and
Further, for n cloud model C1(E1,E1,H1),C2(E2,E2,H2),…,Cn(En,En,Hn) weight them
Collection becomes a comprehensive cloud: C (Ex, En, He) then:
Wherein: wiIt is the weight of each cloud model.
Further, it is iterated calculating using the similarity matrix of data set and degree of membership matrix in step 5), until
Cluster result, which is no longer changed or calculates the number of iterations and reaches upper limit value, obtains the cluster result of object data set.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the following beneficial technical effects:
A kind of process industry based on cloud model of the present invention equips military service safety risk estimating method, by using cloud mould
Type, entropy assessment, neighbour's propagation clustering method carry out risk assessment to being on active service to equip;First using cloud model to each risk factors expert
The possibility occurrence that obtains is assessed to be converted with sequence severity, used during fusion entropy assessment determine each risk because
The possibility occurrence and sequence severity proportion of element, determine weight shared by each risk assessment with neighbour's propagation clustering method,
The semantic assessment result of expert is quantified using cloud model in evaluation method, from the ambiguity and randomness of evaluation language
Two aspects feature the uncertainty of evaluation procedure, so that risk evaluation result has more objectivity and accuracy;It is evaluating
On the basis of information, the weight of uncertainty and sequence severity in each risk factors is determined using entropy assessment, is passed using neighbour
It broadcasts clustering procedure and determines each expert's assessment result shared weight in risk assessment, generate expert's overall merit of each risk factors
Cloud maximizes group effectiveness when analyzing ultimate risk assessment result, while minimizing individual and regretting, and makes the analysis result obtained
The subjectivity and uncertainty in risk assessment information are eliminated, risk evaluation result is more accurate.The present invention can be from randomness
The uncertainty of risk assessment is comprehensively considered with two aspects of ambiguity, while any priori knowledge is not depended on when determining weight
With supervisor's assignment, it is completely dependent on the iotave evaluation information that expert provides, the as far as possible subjectivity in elimination risk assessment information
With uncertainty, make time of day of the risk evaluation result more close to equipment of being on active service.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is specific embodiment of the invention flow chart;
Fig. 2 is that carbon washes tower structure schematic diagram;
Fig. 3 is risk factors cloud charts.
Specific embodiment
The invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawing:
A kind of process industry equipment military service safety risk estimating method based on cloud model, comprising the following steps:
1), using cloud model as theoretical basis, standard cloud, standard are mutually generated with Fibonacci method in conjunction with cloud model generation method
Cloud parameter includes desired Ex, entropy En and super entropy He;
2) M risk assessment, is carried out to risk factors present in equipment of being on active service using semantic variant, obtains M risk
Assessment result, each risk evaluation result include two risks and assumptions as a result, i.e. possibility occurrence (L) risk evaluation result is with after
Fruit severity (S) risk evaluation result;The standard cloud obtained according to step 1) will carry out risk assessment using semantic variant and obtain
All risk evaluation results be converted to the M risk assessment value indicated by expectation Ex, entropy En and the super entropy He of cloud model;
Each risk assessment value includes possibility occurrence risk assessment value and sequence severity risk assessment value;
3) it, is weighed according to entropy assessment calculation risk assessment result risk factor possibility occurrence weight and sequence severity
Weight, and according to possibility occurrence weight with sequence severity weight to step 2) obtained in risk assessment value assembled to obtain
One risk factors evaluates cloud model;
4), the risk factors evaluation cloud model in step 3) is clustered using neighbour's propagation clustering algorithm, according to every
The number of members of a class cluster calculates each risk evaluation result weight shared in all risk evaluation results, and is commented according to each risk
Estimate result weight shared in all risk evaluation results risk evaluation result is merged to obtain risk factors synthesis and comments
Valence cloud;
5) similarity for, calculating each risk factors overall merit cloud and standard cloud, can be completed the risk of each risk factors
Assessment.
In step 1), it is first determined the standard cloud number of required generation, then according to previous standard cloud and latter mark
Expectation, entropy and the super entropy of quasi- cloud complete the generation of standard cloud parameter at the principle of golden section;Natural language evaluation is divided into
5 grades generate the corresponding standard cloud of each grade using Fibonacci method;
In step 2), M risk assessment is carried out to risk factors present in equipment of being on active service using semantic variant, is obtained
The risk evaluation result of risk factors, the semantic variant are (H) and very high including very low (VL), low (L), general (F), height
(VH);Five standard clouds and five semantic variant one-to-one correspondence are converted to by cloud model M risk evaluation result
Expectation Ex, the risk assessment value that indicates of entropy En and super entropy He.
In step 3), risk indicator is measured by comparing the diversity factor between risk indicator and each risk assessment value
Different degree, carrys out the weight of two risks and assumptions results of calculation risk factor, i.e. the possibility occurrence of risk factors and consequence is tight
The weight of severe:
Wherein: fijIt is the feature specific gravity of i-th risk assessment under j-th of risks and assumptions result;vijIt is that i-th risk is commented
Estimate the decision value of j-th of risks and assumptions result in result,It is the sum of all decision values under j-th of risks and assumptions result,
hjIt is the entropy of j-th of risks and assumptions result, wherein 0≤hj≤ 1,0≤wj≤ 1, and
For n cloud model C1(E1,E1,H1),C2(E2,E2,H2),…,Cn(En,En,Hn) their weight-sets are become one
Piece comprehensive cloud: C (Ex, En, He) then:
Wherein: wiIt is the weight of each cloud model.
It is iterated calculating using the similarity matrix of data set and degree of membership matrix in step 5), until cluster result
It is no longer changed or calculates the number of iterations and reach upper limit value and obtain the cluster result of object data set.
A kind of process industry based on cloud model of the present invention equips military service safety risk estimating method, adopts in evaluation method
Risk evaluation result is quantified with cloud model, features and evaluated in terms of the ambiguity of evaluation language and randomness two
The uncertainty of journey, so that risk evaluation result has more objectivity and accuracy;On the basis of evaluation information, entropy weight is utilized
Method determines the weight of uncertainty and sequence severity in risk factors, determines each risk assessment knot using neighbour's propagation clustering method
Fruit shared weight in risk assessment generates the risk factors evaluation cloud model of each risk factors, in analysis ultimate risk assessment
Maximize group effectiveness when as a result, while minimizing individual, make the analysis result obtained eliminate risk assessment in subjectivity and
Uncertainty keeps risk evaluation result more accurate.
Referring to attached drawing 1, the present invention specifically includes the following steps:
1) risk assessment team is established, and determines the risk factors being primarily present in equipment, is washed with the carbon of certain chemical company
For tower, specific such as table 1, carbon wash the structural schematic diagram such as attached drawing 2 of tower.
Table 1
2) by 10 risk assessment expert (S1,S2,…S9,S10) composition expert group using semantic evaluation variable it is { very low
(VL), low (L), general (F), height (H), very high (VH) } risk assessment is carried out respectively to each Risk mode, it obtains 10 risks and comments
Estimate as a result, every risk assessment expert's risk assessment factor includes possibility occurrence (L) and consequence seriousness (S) occurs, such as table
2, table 3:
2 possibility occurrence expert opinion result of table
3 sequence severity expert opinion result of table
3) expert's semantic evaluation result converts fusion process
3.1) effective domain U=[X is givenmin,Xmax]=[0,100], He0=0.1, generate 5 cloudlets and PASCAL evaluation PASCAL collection pair
It answers, numerical characteristic such as the following table 4:
4 standard cloud model feature of table
3.2) cloud is carried out to the semantic evaluation result that expert provides according to the transformational relation of semantic evaluation variable and cloud model
Risk assessment expert is carried out the wind that risk assessment obtains to risk factors present in equipment of being on active service using semantic variant by quantization
Dangerous assessment result is converted into the risk assessment value indicated by three parameter of cloud model;
3.3) possibility occurrence and sequence severity weight of each risk factors are calculated according to entropy assessment:
Wherein: fijIt is the feature specific gravity of i-th risk assessment under j-th of risks and assumptions result;vijIt is that i-th risk is commented
Estimate the decision value of j-th of risks and assumptions result in result,It is the sum of all decision values under j-th of risks and assumptions result,
hjIt is the entropy of j-th of risks and assumptions result, wjFor the weight of j-th of risks and assumptions result;
It is as shown in table 5 below to obtain the weight of possibility occurrence and sequence severity in each risk factors:
Table 5 risk factors risks and assumptions (L, S) weight table
According to possibility occurrence and sequence severity weight shared in each risk factors, risk assessment value is carried out
Assembly obtains risk factors evaluation cloud model;
The risk evaluation result of each risk factors is merged, fused cloud model such as the following table 6, each risk factors
Synthesis cloud atlas such as attached drawing 3
6 risk factors of table integrate cloud model evaluation table
3.4) according to clustering rule, setting expert and clustering number is 3, evaluates cloud to risk factors are obtained using AP clustering procedure
Model executes cluster, and according to the number of members of each class cluster, the weight of all decision members is calculated, as shown in table 7 below:
7 expert AP of table clusters weight table
4) similarity for calculating each risk factors overall merit cloud and standard cloud, obtains the risk class of each risk factors,
Such as table 8:
The similarity of table 8 each risk factors and standard cloud
It obtains carbon and washes the risk class of tower outlet relief valve inlet and outlet blocking to be 2 grades;The risk class of tower tray deformation is 3
Grade;Demister deformation, installing risk class not in place is 2 grades;Barrel distortion has crack, there is the risk class obviously damaged
It is 2 grades;Lower cone washes away, crannied risk class is 2 grades;Risk class of the big elbow thickness in top less than 10mm is 1 grade.
For deficiency existing for current risk assessment, the invention proposes a kind of improved methods of risk assessment, by adopting
Risk assessment is carried out to equipment of being on active service with cloud model, entropy assessment, neighbour's propagation clustering method;First using cloud model to each risk because
The possibility occurrence that plain risk assessment obtains is converted with sequence severity, is determined respectively during fusion using entropy assessment
The possibility occurrence and sequence severity proportion of risk factors, are determined shared by each expert opinion with neighbour's propagation clustering method
Weight, the present invention can comprehensively consider the uncertainty of risk assessment in terms of randomness and ambiguity two, while in determination
Any priori knowledge and supervisor's assignment are not depended on when weight, are completely dependent on the iotave evaluation information that expert provides, are made finally to obtain
Analysis result can maximize group effectiveness, while also energy minimization individual is sorry, as far as possible elimination risk assessment information
In subjectivity and uncertain, make time of day of the risk evaluation result more close to equipment of being on active service.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of process industry based on cloud model equips military service safety risk estimating method, which is characterized in that including following step
It is rapid:
Step 1), using cloud model as theoretical basis, standard cloud is mutually generated with Fibonacci method in conjunction with cloud model generation method;
Step 2) carries out M risk assessment to risk factors present in equipment of being on active service using semantic variant, obtains M risk
Assessment result, each risk evaluation result include possibility occurrence risk evaluation result and sequence severity risk evaluation result;
The standard cloud obtained according to step 1) will carry out all risk evaluation results that risk assessment obtains using semantic variant and be converted to
The M risk assessment value indicated by cloud model parameter;
Step 3) is weighed according to entropy assessment calculation risk assessment result risk factor possibility occurrence weight and sequence severity
Weight, and according to possibility occurrence weight with sequence severity weight to step 2) obtained in risk assessment value assembled to obtain
One risk factors evaluates cloud model;
Step 4) clusters the risk factors evaluation cloud model in step 3) using neighbour's propagation clustering algorithm, according to every
The number of members of a class cluster calculates each risk evaluation result weight shared in all risk evaluation results, and is commented according to each risk
Estimate result weight shared in all risk evaluation results risk evaluation result is merged to obtain risk factors synthesis and comments
Valence cloud;
Step 5), the similarity for calculating each risk factors overall merit cloud and standard cloud, can be completed the risk of each risk factors
Assessment.
2. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 1 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, each risk assessment value includes possibility occurrence risk assessment value and sequence severity risk assessment value.
3. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 1 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, Natural language evaluation is divided into 5 grades, generate the corresponding standard of each grade using Fibonacci method
Cloud.
4. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 3 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
Be characterized in that, it is first determined the standard cloud number of required generation, then according to previous standard cloud and latter standard cloud expectation,
Entropy and super entropy complete the generation of standard cloud parameter at the principle of golden section.
5. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 1 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, in step 2), the semantic variant includes very low, low, general, high and very high.
6. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 5 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, standard cloud parameter includes desired Ex, entropy En and super entropy He.
7. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 6 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, five standard clouds and five semantic variant one-to-one correspondence is converted to by cloud M risk evaluation result
The risk assessment value that expectation Ex, entropy En and the super entropy He of model are indicated.
8. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 1 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, in step 3), measures risk indicator by comparing the diversity factor between risk indicator and each risk assessment value
Different degree, carrys out the weight of two risks and assumptions results of calculation risk factor, i.e. the possibility occurrence of risk factors and consequence is tight
The weight of severe:
Wherein: fijIt is the feature specific gravity of i-th risk assessment under j-th of risks and assumptions result;vijIt is i-th risk evaluation result
In j-th of risks and assumptions result decision value,It is the sum of all decision values, h under j-th of risks and assumptions resultjIt is jth
The entropy of a risks and assumptions result, wherein 0≤hj≤ 1,0≤wj≤ 1, and
9. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 8 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, for n cloud model C1(E1,E1,H1),C2(E2,E2,H2),…,Cn(En,En,Hn) their weight-sets are become one
Piece comprehensive cloud: C (Ex, En, He) then:
Wherein: wiIt is the weight of each cloud model.
10. a kind of process industry based on cloud model according to claim 1 equips military service safety risk estimating method,
It is characterized in that, calculating is iterated using the similarity matrix of data set and degree of membership matrix in step 5), until cluster result
It is no longer changed or calculates the number of iterations and reach upper limit value and obtain the cluster result of object data set.
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Application publication date: 20190806 |