CN110084310A - A kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost - Google Patents
A kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process methods of save the cost, the present invention is specifically includes the following steps: S1, initially set up absorbed costs Water pricing model, S2, economic Water pricing model is then established, S3, Water Price of Irrigation Area model is established, the building of S4, Bayesian network, the building of S5, Bayesian network directed acyclic graph, S6, the processing that data are carried out using Netica software, the present invention relates to technical field of environmental management.The sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of the save the cost; the relationship of water pricing and peasant household between water behavior is established by introducing Bayesian network model; according to Stakeholder Involvement and expertise; determine the key variables in water resources management; influence of many-sided quantitative analysis water pricing for peasant household is carried out to peasant household; single raising water price be may be implemented in while obtaining water-saving effect; ground water protection policy and farm aid policy are introduced, the interests that peasant household's exploiting groundwater behavior combines peasant household can be effectively evaded.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of environmental management, the sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of specially a kind of save the cost.
Background technique
For arid biogeographic zone, water resource is to ensure watershed ecosystem structural intergrity and the mostly important ring of functional stabilization
The border factor considers water resource cost and Environmental costs in water price calculating process, embodies the rare feature of water resource, traditional water price meter
Calculation method ignores the property of value of water resource, and absorption costing constitutes according to Water Resources Value and determines water resource price, passes through
The mode for adding water resources taxes ensures water resources carrying capacity and water environment ability to bear, be scientific with rationally
Property, be directed to the formulation and influence of water price, domestic and foreign scholars have done numerous studies: Moncur (1987), Mann P.C pass through
Cross section and time series data study water price and water consumption relationship, it is believed that consumer, which should pay, obtains benefit
Complete cost caused by benefit；H.Younkim (1995) is by suboptimum and marginal cost pricing to water services research, it is believed that side
Cost price in border can more make social welfare maximization compared with averge cost pricing；(Riesgo (2006) passes through water price calculation model
Water price is had estimated to change for agricultural planting structure for influencing；Moore (1992) has estimated agriculture filling using metric assay
Irrigate the relationship between water and water price；Dinar (1997) is based on water pricing, has formulated water resource in point of different society class
With mode；J.Berbel (1999) analyzes water price raising for Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households structure using linear programming technique and uses water behavior
It influences；Giacomo (2010) analyzes the relationship between water price and Household income by comparing different water price pricing methods；And
It is less using correlative study of the Bayesian network model to the effect simulation of water pricing, Bayesian network have it is powerful not really
Qualitative and data analysis function is applied to natural resource management, ground water protection and Eco-Environment Frangibility by extensive
More various aspects such as assessment construct the topological relation between each variable using the knowledge structure system in human brain, pass through scene mould
It is intended to be manager and determines optimizing decision scheme, effectively solve the decision problem in natural resource management, meanwhile, Bayesian network is anti-
What is reflected is the probabilistic relation in entire database between data, still can be with Accurate Model even if lacking certain a part, and can be located
Incomplete data set is managed, and variable data acquisition modes are flexible, knowledge, the experience using stakeholder and expert can be passed through
Data and data in literature etc..
Large-scale water and soil resources exploitation causes the contradiction of supply and demand for the water resource to be becoming increasingly acute in recent years, especially for punja
Area, the cultivated area that the fragile ecosystem is constantly expanded in addition causes river basin ecological and social safety is seriously threatened,
It needs to propose scientific and reasonable Water Resources Management Approaches to dissolve this contradiction, single raising water price can effectively reduce agriculture
Family irrigation water capacity adjusts the planting behavior of peasant household, but can also bring simultaneously to underground water security and Household income negative external
Property effect, it is leading for using with water pricing, the Water Resources Management Approaches that ground water protection is mutually assisted with farm aid policy, energy
Enough effective adjusting peasant households use water behavior, reduce agricultural irrigation water, combine Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households income, ensure underground water peace
Entirely.
Therefore, the present invention is for water price determination and this critical issue of effect assessment is irrigated, towards Arid Area agricultural
With the target of water and ecological water coordinated development, it is based on absorbed costs Water pricing model, has evaluated water price political affairs using Bayesian network
Plan utilizes contradiction and realization River valley economy and and ecology guarantor for peasant household's influence of water behavior, for basin water resources are effectively relieved
Shield coordinated development provides support.
Summary of the invention
(1) the technical issues of solving
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost, biography is solved
System Calculational Methods of Water Price ignores the property of value of water resource, and single raising water price can give underground water security and Household income
The problem of bringing negative external effect.
(2) technical solution
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is achieved by the following technical programs: a kind of sandy wasteland oasis of save the cost
Change method, specifically includes the following steps:
S1, absorbed costs Water pricing model: the calculation formula of absorbed costs water price is initially set up are as follows: Wherein W1 is absorbed costs water price, and Z is irrigated area hydraulic engineering year water supply production cost, D
For irrigated area hydraulic engineering year water supply period expense, Y is administration fee, and R water distribution personnel's labour cost, L is maintenance expense, Q1
For annual water supply, Q2 is terminal water supplying amount, and C1 is the water resource cost of unit area field irrigation waste, and C2 is unit face
Product farmland planting activity bring Environmental costs, Q3 are unit area field irrigation water；
S2, then establish economic Water pricing model: by need to concede the land soil generation economic benefit by way of water price into
Row conversion obtains economic water price, and the calculation formula of economic water price is as follows:Wherein W2 is economic water price, Ci
Indicate economic benefit caused by grown per area i kind crop, Vi indicates ground area of conceding the land shared by i-th kind of crop, and Q3 is single
Plane accumulates field irrigation water, and V indicates the rejected reasons gross area；
S3, establish Water Price of Irrigation Area model: Water Price of Irrigation Area is made of basic water price and stepped water pricing, and calculation formula is as follows:
P1=W1, P1=W1+W2, wherein P1 is irrigated area basis water price, and P2 is irrigated area stepped water pricing, and W1 is absorbed costs water price, and W2 is warp
Ji water price；
The building of S4, Bayesian network: before constructing Bayesian network, it is first determined the problem of research and may relate to
And the stakeholder arrived, then by discussing with stakeholder, determine and study a question related variable, due in system
The meaning that each variable indicates is different, in order to facilitate the building of network, according to the function of variable, variable is divided into six classes, so
Afterwards according to the problem of proposition and the variable of determination constructs experimental network, later together with stakeholder, by each variable with having
It is connected to side, it is continuous to experimental network with the opinion of utilization relative the problem of binding during construct network
It modifies until network becomes consistent, has logicality and can reach the set goal, it is then true according to minimization principle
Determine the state of each node in network, collects county domain social economy, hydraulic engineering and agriculture related data, ecological by consulting,
The special scholar's opinion of the hydrology combines and the conditional probability table of peasant household's experience filling node, finally carries out sensibility point to network variable
Analysis compiles network according to setting scene, makes a policy；
The building of S5, Bayesian network directed acyclic graph: by with local administrative department, stakeholder and expert into
Row discusses, analyzes influence of the water price for Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households behavior, finally determines 26 primary variables, by analyze each variable it
Between relationship, construct Bayesian network directed acyclic graph；
S6, using Netica software carry out data processing: by Netica software can carry out Modeling interface graphically and
Probability parameter is intuitively shown, completes to demonstrate,prove Bayesian network progress parameter learning by input node then according to Scene Simulation
It is believed that breath, can automatically update network probability.
Preferably, absorption costing calculates gained water price respectively by engineering water tariff, resources value of water and ring in the step S1
Border water price composition, and engineering water tariff is that irrigated area hydraulic engineering is supplied water and expense caused by maintenance, told resources value of water is water money
Source consumed value during by peasant household's use embodies the property right and commodity of water resource, and environmental water price is agricultural
Irrigation activity is generated negative external effect for ambient enviroment and is carried out economic compensation in a manner of water price.
Preferably, economic water price is that the movable marginal benefit of peasant household's farming determines that the plantation of peasant household is anticipated in the step S2
It is willing to, in order to reach target of conceding the land, economic cost is added with water peasant household for excess, i.e., the economic of soil generation that will need to concede the land is imitated
Benefit is converted by way of water price.
Preferably, Netica software can provide sample data statistics, greatest hope and downward gradient three in the step S6
Kind algorithm.
Preferably, the Bayesian network in the step S4 is made of network structure H and network parameter P, is respectively corresponded
The qualitative and quantitative description of problem domain, network structure H are a directed acyclic graphs, by node variable collection K (K=k1, k2,
..kn it }) is indicated with directed edge combination H (H={ kikj, ki, kj, ∈ K }), network structure indicates S are as follows: S=(K, H), and network
Parameter P is the conditional probability table of variable node, and each node is relative to all possible conditional probability calculation formula of its father node
Are as follows: P={ P (Ki|K1, K2..., Ki-1), Ki∈K。
Preferably, the mathematical model of one Bayesian network are as follows: B=(S, P)=(K, H, P), if indicating to become with Kpi
The father node collection of Ki is measured, then the joint probability distribution of K are as follows:
Bayesian network can comprehensively consider each mesh compared to the methods of traditional artificial neural network, genetic algorithm
Contradiction is marked, study and bidirection reasoning are carried out under limited, incomplete information, obtains optimal case, water price is as water resource
Economic means in management, the commodity and scarcity for reflecting water resource to a certain extent utilize absorbed costs water price mould
On the one hand type is capable of providing enough funds and makes water supply side that can recycle water supply cost, safeguard the operation of water system, another
Aspect encourages peasant household to reduce water resource loss using advanced irrigation method and technology, by by Bayesian network and water price political affairs
Plan combines, and can encourage Stakeholder Involvement water resources management process.
(3) beneficial effect
The present invention provides a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process methods of save the cost.Have compared with prior art following beneficial to effect
Fruit: the sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of the save the cost establishes water pricing and peasant household water row by introducing Bayesian network model
Relationship between determines the key variables in water resources management according to Stakeholder Involvement and expertise, from peasant household
Irrigation water mode, acceptance level and wish of conceding the land etc. it is many-sided it is quantitative analyze influence of the water pricing for peasant household,
The result shows that water pricing determines the influence of peasant household's marginal benefit the water-saving result of water pricing, since water price rises,
Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households revenue decline is caused, peasant household is forced to adjust agricultural planting decision, reduces irrigation water, meanwhile, it is mentioned to make up water price
Negative external effect caused by height, government need to introduce such as ground water protection, farm aid relevant policies, are based on water price political affairs
Plan carries out surface water, underground water joint control, and therefore, it take stepped water pricing as leading, underground water that Arid Area, which should be used,
The Water Resources Management Approaches mutually assisted with farm aid policy are protected, this provides a kind of complete for the policy making of water resources management
New method and thinking, it can be achieved that in single raisings water price while obtaining water-saving effect, introducing ground water protection policy and
Farm aid policy can effectively evade the interests that peasant household's exploiting groundwater behavior combines peasant household.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the invention；
Fig. 2 is Bayesian network node variable classification scheme of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the Bayesian network based on Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households behavior that the present invention is participated in building by stakeholder and expert
Figure；
Fig. 4 is that four kinds of scenes of Bayesian network of the present invention design introduce table figure；
Fig. 5 is that the water price of experiment case study of the present invention calculates data table related figure.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1-5 is please referred to, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of technical solution: a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process side of save the cost
Method, specifically includes the following steps:
S1, absorbed costs Water pricing model: the calculation formula of absorbed costs water price is initially set up are as follows: Wherein W1 is absorbed costs water price, and Z is irrigated area hydraulic engineering year water supply production cost, D
For irrigated area hydraulic engineering year water supply period expense, Y is administration fee, and R water distribution personnel's labour cost, L is maintenance expense, Q1
For annual water supply, Q2 is terminal water supplying amount, and C1 is the water resource cost of unit area field irrigation waste, and C2 is unit face
Product farmland planting activity bring Environmental costs, Q3 are unit area field irrigation water；
S2, then establish economic Water pricing model: by need to concede the land soil generation economic benefit by way of water price into
Row conversion obtains economic water price, and the calculation formula of economic water price is as follows:Wherein W2 is economic water price, Ci
Indicate economic benefit caused by grown per area i kind crop, Vi indicates ground area of conceding the land shared by i-th kind of crop, and Q3 is single
Plane accumulates field irrigation water, and V indicates the rejected reasons gross area；
S3, establish Water Price of Irrigation Area model: Water Price of Irrigation Area is made of basic water price and stepped water pricing, and calculation formula is as follows:
P1=W1, P1=W1+W2, wherein P1 is irrigated area basis water price, and P2 is irrigated area stepped water pricing, and W1 is absorbed costs water price, and W2 is warp
Ji water price；
The building of S4, Bayesian network: before constructing Bayesian network, it is first determined the problem of research and may relate to
And the stakeholder arrived, then by discussing with stakeholder, determine and study a question related variable, due in system
The meaning that each variable indicates is different, in order to facilitate the building of network, according to the function of variable, variable is divided into six classes, so
Afterwards according to the problem of proposition and the variable of determination constructs experimental network, later together with stakeholder, by each variable with having
It is connected to side, it is continuous to experimental network with the opinion of utilization relative the problem of binding during construct network
It modifies until network becomes consistent, has logicality and can reach the set goal, it is then true according to minimization principle
Determine the state of each node in network, collects county domain social economy, hydraulic engineering and agriculture related data, ecological by consulting,
The special scholar's opinion of the hydrology combines and the conditional probability table of peasant household's experience filling node, finally carries out sensibility point to network variable
Analysis compiles network according to setting scene, makes a policy；
The building of S5, Bayesian network directed acyclic graph: by with local administrative department, stakeholder and expert into
Row discusses, analyzes influence of the water price for Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households behavior, finally determines 26 primary variables, by analyze each variable it
Between relationship, construct Bayesian network directed acyclic graph；
S6, using Netica software carry out data processing: by Netica software can carry out Modeling interface graphically and
Probability parameter is intuitively shown, completes to demonstrate,prove Bayesian network progress parameter learning by input node then according to Scene Simulation
It is believed that breath, can automatically update network probability.
In the present invention, absorption costing calculates gained water price respectively by engineering water tariff, resources value of water and environment in step S1
Water price composition, and engineering water tariff is that irrigated area hydraulic engineering is supplied water and expense caused by maintenance, told resources value of water is water resource
Consumed value during by peasant household's use embodies the property right and commodity of water resource, and environmental water price is that agricultural fills
The activity of irrigating is generated negative external effect for ambient enviroment and is carried out economic compensation in a manner of water price.
In the present invention, economic water price is the plantation wish that the movable marginal benefit of peasant household's farming determines peasant household in step S2,
In order to reach target of conceding the land, economic cost is added with water peasant household for excess, i.e., will need to concede the land the economic benefit of soil generation
It is converted by way of water price.
In the present invention, Netica software can provide sample data statistics, greatest hope and three kinds of downward gradient in step S6
Algorithm.
In the present invention, the Bayesian network in step S4 is made of network structure H and network parameter P, is respectively corresponded and is asked
The qualitative and quantitative description in topic field, network structure H are a directed acyclic graphs, by node variable collection K (K=k1, k2,
..kn it }) is indicated with directed edge combination H (H={ kikj, ki, kj, ∈ K }), network structure indicates S are as follows: S=(K, H), and network
Parameter P is the conditional probability table of variable node, and each node is relative to all possible conditional probability calculation formula of its father node
Are as follows: P={ P (Ki|K1, K2..., Ki-1), Ki∈K。
In the present invention, the mathematical model of a Bayesian network are as follows: B=(S, P)=(K, H, P), if indicating variable with Kpi
The father node collection of Ki, the then joint probability distribution of K are as follows:
Case study on implementation
It is in Heshuo County the Southern Tianshan foot of a hill or mountain, sub-coupling system northeast is located at E84 ° 41 ' -88 ° 22 ', N40 ° 25 ' -42 °
47 ', belong to warm temperate zone arid climate, 8.6 DEG C of Nian Junwen, county domain administration area about 1.28*104km2, cultivated area is
36168.43hm2,6.57 ten thousand people of total number of people, wherein 1.64 ten thousand people of agricultural population number, Main Agricultural area are located at clear water river, Qu Hui
On river, the Wushi river Ta La alluvial-proluvial fan and alluvial plain, basis and strategic industry as Heshuo County, agricultural is in Heshuo County region
It occupies an important position in economic development, the low economic benefit of agricultural water resources and high this consumption ratio make agricultural water ratio in recent years
Example constantly reduction, the contradiction of supply and demand for the water resource becomes increasingly conspicuous, in order to alleviate basin water resources imbalance between supply and demand, Xinjiang Tarim River Basin
Management board formulates basin water resources " three red lines ", it is desirable that each department strict control water resource water total amount, in order to reach " three
Red line " water, which controls, to be required, and Heshuo County need to move back 23.61 ten thousand mu of ground, and peasant household how to be allowed consciously to move back ground, is reached and is moved back ground target as political affairs
The current urgent problem to be solved in mansion.
Using water pricing, county domain water right allocation and trade system under perfect " three red lines " control pass through Bayes
Influence of the network evaluation water price for Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households proposes the water resources management optimization mould under three red lines and water right trading normality
Formula, to realize that River valley economy society and the ecosystem develop in harmony.
As shown in table Fig. 4, four kinds of scenes are designed in Bayesian network, simulation is in water pricing for Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households behavior
Influence, for scene one for simulating influence of the single water pricing for the planting behavior of peasant household, scene two introduces underground water administration
Plan imposes a fine the peasant household of exploiting groundwater privately, simulates shadow of the water price for Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households behavior under the Water policy of underground
It rings, scene three introduces farm aid policy on the basis of scene two, for being ready that certain economic benefit is given by the peasant household to concede the land
It repays, simulates under ground water protection policy and farm aid policy, influence of the water price to Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households behavior, scene four is used for
Simulate influence of the water price for land ecology value of services.
Interpretation of result
Water price calculates: obtaining water price according to government's correlation report and Heshuo County statistical yearbook and calculates related data such as table figure
Shown in 5, wherein management service expense includes water project management expense, water distribution personnel service charge and water conservancy projects maintenance maintenance
Take, rejected reasons long-term cropping obtains Xinjiang grown per area cotton bring based on cotton, according to the research of Ma Qiong et al.
Negative external cost is 2144.9 yuan/hm2, and it is 31422.8 that wherein Environmental costs C2, which is 2722.1 yuan/hm2, water resource cost C1,
Member/hm2, obtaining grown per area cotton income C3 in 2016 by main producing region agricultural sector is 7846.5 yuan/hm2, final
To the basic farmland in " three red lines " control, Agricultural Irrigation Water Price is 0.35 yuan/m3, the irrigation other than " three red lines " control
Water price is 1.4 yuan/m3.
Sensitivity analysis: sensitivity analysis, which refers to find out from the variable of Bayesian network, has a major impact target variable
Sensitivity factors, and the influence degree and sensitivity level analyzed, calculate it to target variable, it is considered to be assessment models
The most efficient method of performance, the result of sensitivity analysis can be used as model parameter tuning and research Parameters variation to model
Export result robustness provide reference frame, sensitivity analysis the result shows that, the left side of reference axis represents node variable
Abrupt information, the right represent confidence variance, and output valve is higher to illustrate that target variable is more sensitive to it, to the decrease of cultivated land amount, agriculture
Family move back ground wish and value of services most sensitive variable in soil is Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households income, and the most for underground water security
Sensitive variable is well-digging.
Shown that significant water-saving result, agriculture can not be obtained under current low water pricing by Bayesian network analog result
Family water-saving wish of conceding the land is low.Because low water pricing reduces peasant household's water demand elasticity, only when water price is increased to obviously
The degree of plantation income is reduced, peasant household can just start to reduce water consumption, and by improving water price, agricultural irrigation water is reduced, peasant household
Irrigation water may be reduced using the better water-saving technology of irrigation efficiency or change pattern of farming, illustrate the raising pair of water price
Saving water in peasant household has incentive action, and planting resulting marginal net income is to influence the principal element of farmer households' decision-making behavior,
Single raising water price, so that Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households income reduces, may be generated as reduced underground while obtaining water-saving effect
Water security aggravates the case where contradiction even causes policy failure between government and peasant household, by introduce ground water protection policy with
Farm aid policy can effectively evade the interests that peasant household's exploiting groundwater behavior combines peasant household, it should be noted that
Compared to the duty of saving, improving water price may be more passive on the influence of the income of peasant household, this will cause the kind of peasant household
Planting wish reduces, and for this paper, conceding the land is to need target to be achieved, but for other areas, excessively high water price may
It will cause Cultivated Land Area Decrease, the grain yield drops, to limit Rural Social Economy development, aggravate between rural area and city
Poor gap, to bring a series of social concern, this is that policymaker is not intended to see and domestic and foreign scholars are for water
Valence policy is controversial always, and therefore, the formulation of water price is a progressive process, only by taking water price as leading, more political affairs
Plan is mutually assisted, and can just give full play to water price to the adjustment effect of Water Resources Allocation, to realize the sustainable use of water resource.
In summary
The present invention considers Water Resources Value attribute and environment attribute, and " three red lines " is calculated using absorption costing and controls
Basic farmland in system, Agricultural Irrigation Water Price are set to 0.35 yuan/m3, and the irrigation water price other than " three red lines " control is set to 1.4
Member/m3 establishes the relationship of water pricing and peasant household between water behavior by introducing Bayesian network model, according to interests correlation
Person participate in and expertise, determine the key variables in water resources management, from the irrigation water mode of peasant household, acceptance level and
Wish of conceding the land etc. is many-sided quantitative to analyze influence of the water pricing for peasant household, the results showed that, water pricing is for peasant household
The influence of marginal benefit determines the water-saving result of water pricing, since water price rises, causes Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households revenue decline, forces
Peasant household adjusts agricultural planting decision, reduces irrigation water, meanwhile, generated negative external effect, political affairs are improved to make up water price
Mansion needs to introduce such as ground water protection, farm aid relevant policies.Based on water pricing, surface water, underground water joint are carried out
Control, showing to reach the concede the land probability of target of government according to modeling is 77.7%, and land ecology value of services mentions after conceding the land
High probability is 77.1%, and therefore, it is leading that Arid Area, which should be used with stepped water pricing, and ground water protection and agricultural are mended
The Water Resources Management Approaches that policy mutually assists are helped, this provides a kind of completely new method and think of for the policy making of water resources management
Road.
It should be noted that, in this document, relational terms such as first and second and the like are used merely to a reality
Body or operation are distinguished with another entity or operation, are deposited without necessarily requiring or implying between these entities or operation
In any actual relationship or order or sequence.Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or its any other variant are intended to
Non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or equipment including a series of elements is not only wanted including those
Element, but also including other elements that are not explicitly listed, or further include for this process, method, article or equipment
Intrinsic element.
It although an embodiment of the present invention has been shown and described, for the ordinary skill in the art, can be with
A variety of variations, modification, replacement can be carried out to these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention by understanding
And modification, the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost, it is characterised in that: specifically includes the following steps:
S1, absorbed costs Water pricing model: the calculation formula of absorbed costs water price is initially set up are as follows: Wherein W1 is absorbed costs water price, and Z is irrigated area hydraulic engineering year water supply production cost, D
For irrigated area hydraulic engineering year water supply period expense, Y is administration fee, and R water distribution personnel's labour cost, L is maintenance expense, Q1
For annual water supply, Q2 is terminal water supplying amount, and C1 is the water resource cost of unit area field irrigation waste, and C2 is unit face
Product farmland planting activity bring Environmental costs, Q3 are unit area field irrigation water；
S2, it then establishes economic Water pricing model: the economic benefit for the soil generation that needs to concede the land is turned by way of water price
Change obtains economic water price, and the calculation formula of economic water price is as follows:Wherein W2 is economic water price, and Ci is indicated
Economic benefit caused by grown per area i kind crop, Vi indicate ground area of conceding the land shared by i-th kind of crop, and Q3 is unit face
Product field irrigation water, V indicate the rejected reasons gross area；
S3, establish Water Price of Irrigation Area model: Water Price of Irrigation Area is made of basic water price and stepped water pricing, and calculation formula is as follows: P1=
W1, P1=W1+W2, wherein P1 is irrigated area basis water price, and P2 is irrigated area stepped water pricing, and W1 is absorbed costs water price, and W2 is economic water
Valence；
The building of S4, Bayesian network: before constructing Bayesian network, it is first determined the problem of research and may relate to
Stakeholder, then by being discussed with stakeholder, determine with the related variable that studies a question, due to each in system
The meaning that a variable indicates is different, in order to facilitate the building of network, according to the function of variable, variable is divided into six classes, then root
According to propose the problem of and determination variable construct experimental network, later together with stakeholder, by each variable directed edge
Connection, with the opinion of utilization relative the problem of binding, constantly carries out experimental network during construct network
Modification becomes consistent, has logicality and can reach the set goal until network, then determines net according to minimization principle
The state of each node in network collects county domain social economy, hydraulic engineering and agriculture related data, the ecological, hydrology by consulting
Special scholar's opinion combines and the conditional probability table of peasant household's experience filling node, finally carries out sensitivity analysis to network variable,
Network is compiled according to setting scene, is made a policy；
The building of S5, Bayesian network directed acyclic graph: by being begged for local administrative department, stakeholder and expert
By, influence of the water price for Cotton Varieties by Small Farming Households behavior is analyzed, it is final to determine 26 primary variables, by analyzing between each variable
Relationship constructs Bayesian network directed acyclic graph；
S6, the processing that data are carried out using Netica software: it can carry out that Modeling interface is graphical and probability by Netica software
Parameter is intuitively shown, completes to believe Bayesian network progress parameter learning by input node evidence then according to Scene Simulation
Breath, can automatically update network probability.
2. a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S1
Absorption costing calculates gained water price and is made of respectively engineering water tariff, resources value of water and environmental water price, and engineering water tariff is irrigated area
Hydraulic engineering, which is supplied water, to be consumed during by peasant household's use with generated expense, told resources value of water is safeguarded by water resource
Value, embody the property right and commodity of water resource, and to be that agricultural irrigation activity generates ambient enviroment negative outer for environmental water price
Portion's effect carries out economic compensation in a manner of water price.
3. a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S2
Economic water price is the plantation wish that the movable marginal benefit of peasant household's farming determines peasant household, in order to reach target of conceding the land, for excess
Economic cost is added with water peasant household, i.e. the economic benefit by the soil generation that needs to concede the land is converted by way of water price.
4. a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S6
Netica software can provide three kinds of sample data statistics, greatest hope and downward gradient algorithms.
5. a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step S4
Bayesian network be made of network structure H and network parameter P, respectively correspond the qualitative and quantitative description of problem domain, net
Network structure H is a directed acyclic graph, by node variable collection K (K={ k1, k2 ..kn }) and directed edge combination H (H=kikj,
Ki, kj, ∈ K }) it indicates, network structure indicates S are as follows: S=(K, H), and network parameter P is the conditional probability table of variable node, often
A node is relative to all possible conditional probability calculation formula of its father node are as follows: P={ P (Ki|K1, K2..., Ki-1), Ki∈K。
6. a kind of sandy wasteland Oasis Process method of save the cost according to claim 5, it is characterised in that: one pattra leaves
The mathematical model of this network are as follows: B=(S, P)=(K, H, P), if indicating the father node collection of variable Ki with Kpi, the joint of K is general
Rate distribution are as follows:
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112084433A (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2020-12-15 | 周盛 | Method for carrying out drought resisting operation of artificially influencing weather according to regional division |
| CN115797097A (en) * | 2022-12-21 | 2023-03-14 | 东北农业大学 | Irrigation district water resource regulation and control method considering influence of climate change on underground water environment |
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2019
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112084433A (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2020-12-15 | 周盛 | Method for carrying out drought resisting operation of artificially influencing weather according to regional division |
| CN112084433B (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2024-04-16 | 周盛 | Method for carrying out weather modification drought-resistant operation according to regional division |
| CN115797097A (en) * | 2022-12-21 | 2023-03-14 | 东北农业大学 | Irrigation district water resource regulation and control method considering influence of climate change on underground water environment |
| CN115797097B (en) * | 2022-12-21 | 2023-09-12 | 东北农业大学 | Irrigation area water resource regulation and control method considering influence of climate change on groundwater environment |
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