CN110046760B - Medical rescue point addressing method considering urgency of disaster-affected point demand - Google Patents

Medical rescue point addressing method considering urgency of disaster-affected point demand Download PDF

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CN110046760B
CN110046760B CN201910283226.XA CN201910283226A CN110046760B CN 110046760 B CN110046760 B CN 110046760B CN 201910283226 A CN201910283226 A CN 201910283226A CN 110046760 B CN110046760 B CN 110046760B
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吕伟
郑帆帆
李鑫
许浩
刘晓英
董凡
郭梦帆
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Abstract

The invention discloses a medical rescue point site selection method considering the urgency of the demand of a disaster-affected point, wherein a plurality of alternative rescue points are actually arranged near a disaster-affected area. The method adopts an experience prediction mode to select the injury degree of personnel, the damage degree of buildings, the damage degree of roads, the disaster preparation capability index and the disaster derivation possibility as the evaluation indexes of the demand urgency, and determines the weight of each index in the demand urgency by applying an analytic hierarchy process. An optimal site selection model is constructed by maximizing the sum of the demand satisfaction rates of all disaster-affected points and minimizing the total time for transporting medical supplies, and an objective function is constrained by certain material output of selected alternative rescue points, the total supply quantity of the materials is less than the total demand quantity and the like.

Description

Medical rescue point addressing method considering urgency of disaster-affected point demand
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of medical rescue, relates to an emergency rescue site selection method after a disaster occurs, and particularly relates to an optimal site selection method which considers the urgency of the demand of a disaster-affected point after the disaster and maximizes the sum of the demand satisfaction rates of the disaster-affected point.
Background
With the rapid development of economy, human beings also bring destruction to a certain degree to the ecological environment, and natural disasters sometimes happen, which in turn also poses serious threats to the safety of human life and property. However, in the initial stage of a disaster, the medical resources available for allocation are often limited, and the disaster situation and the degree of injury in each area are not easy to judge, and under the common influence of the multiple factors, the research on the site selection problem of the medical rescue point considering the multiple factors is very important. The medical rescue point is positioned at the optimal position, so that the transportation cost can be reduced, the timeliness of emergency materials is improved, the rescue time can be shortened, the greater loss can be avoided, and the method has great significance for reducing casualties, ensuring the life safety of people and maintaining the harmony and stability of the society.
In recent years, many scholars at home and abroad have studied site selection of distribution centers. Compared with the history of more than 60 years of research abroad, Chinese scholars begin to pay formal attention from 2003 and start relatively late. The site selection of the medical rescue points can be classified as the site selection problem of the medical distribution center, and in this respect, scholars propose a hierarchical site selection model, a continuous site selection model, a multi-target planning model and the like. The continuous addressing model is suitable for the logistics distribution center, and the position of the continuous addressing model can be selected from any point on a plane, wherein a typical method represents a gravity center method; the discrete model site selection method is suitable for a plurality of places with limited alternative sites of a logistics distribution center, and a typical method represents an integer or mixed integer programming method and the like; zhang Ling et al, according to the classification principle, analyze the demand of each disaster area emergency supplies under two grades, have set up a planning model of many demand points, many salvation points and multiple targets. In fact, the disaster degree of the disaster-affected points is different, and the models have no grade or less grade on the demand urgency of the disaster-affected points, and are not suitable for disasters with large demand urgency difference of the disaster-affected points.
In general, site selection problem research of emergency rescue distribution centers in China has made certain breakthrough and progress, but many practical problems are not considered comprehensively. Aiming at the defects and requirements of the current emergency rescue site selection research, a model considering various grades of disaster-affected points is required to be established in an imminent way, so that medical supplies can be distributed in time after a disaster occurs, casualties of people are reduced, and the stability of the society is maintained.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention combines the characteristics of different requirements urgency of disaster-stricken points to make up the defect of distributing medical materials to the disaster-stricken points on average in the conventional method, and provides an optimal addressing method which considers the requirement urgency of the disaster-stricken points after a disaster and maximizes the sum of the requirement satisfaction rates of the disaster-stricken points, so as to solve the problem of low utilization efficiency of the medical materials after the disaster, meet the medical material requirements of the disaster-stricken points to the greatest extent, reduce the loss of the disaster and maintain the life and property safety of people.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a medical rescue point addressing method considering the urgency of requirements of disaster-affected points is characterized in that after a disaster occurs, I disaster-affected points and n alternative temporary rescue points appear in a certain area, the disaster-affected degree and the urgency of requirements of the disaster-affected points are different, the total material demand of the disaster-affected points is greater than the total material supply of the rescue points, and m optimal rescue points are selected from the n alternative temporary rescue points according to the maximum satisfaction rate and the minimum rescue total time; i belongs to Z, n belongs to Z, and m is less than or equal to n;
characterized in that the method comprises the steps of:
step 1: determining relevant parameters of the alternative rescue points, including the number of effective alternative rescue points and the number of medical supplies of each alternative rescue point; the effective alternative rescue points are rescue points which can provide materials and do not lose the benefits of other objects;
step 2: calculating the demand urgency of each disaster-affected point;
performing regional division according to disaster attributes of disaster areas, counting disaster index information of each disaster point, and analyzing the urgency R of the five disaster indexes at the disaster point by using an analytic hierarchy processjThe weight occupied in (c);
the disaster index information comprises the injury degree u of the personnelj1Degree of damage u to buildingj2Road damage degree uj3Disaster recovery capability index uj4And disaster-derived probability uj5；
And step 3: judging the distance d from the center of each disaster-affected point to each alternative rescue point through GIS map softwareij；
And 4, step 4: establishing a point information index table comprising geographical coordinates of alternative rescue points, geographical coordinates of disaster-affected points, the number of medical supplies provided by the rescue points and the number of medical supplies required by the disaster-affected points;
and 5: determining whether road sections between any disaster-affected point and the rescue point are communicated or not according to the actual road network condition, and constructing a communicable road section coverage matrix;
step 6: and solving by using a medical rescue point addressing model considering the urgency of the demand of the disaster-affected points after the disaster to obtain a plurality of optimal medical rescue points, and calculating the distribution amount of medical materials conveyed each time.
Because natural disasters have the characteristics of emergencies, uncertainties, seriousness, derivations and the like, local emergency management departments must conduct medical rescue in time to prevent more serious injuries from being brought to people. The rapidity of medical rescue means that the delivery cost of materials cannot be put to the first place, and the medical materials are delivered at the same speed by default, so the technical scheme has the defect that the delivery speeds of different routes are not considered. The invention provides a medical rescue point site selection scheme based on 'demand urgency', 'satisfaction rate' and 'time distance', and the medical rescue point site selection scheme is more suitable for natural disasters with wide disaster suffering ranges such as earthquakes, floods and the like. The method comprehensively considers five factors of the injury degree of the personnel at the disaster-affected point, the damage degree of the building, the damage degree of the road, the disaster-preparation capability index and the disaster derivation possibility to determine the demand urgency of the disaster-affected point to the medical supplies, and simultaneously performs weighted maximization on the demand satisfaction rate of each disaster-affected point, so that the medical rescue of the whole disaster is more effective.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is an illustration of a disaster area in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a disaster relief network diagram correspondingly constructed in the disaster area in fig. 2, in which a solid triangle represents a center of a disaster-affected point, and a circle represents a center of an alternative rescue point.
Detailed Description
In order to facilitate the understanding and implementation of the present invention for those of ordinary skill in the art, the present invention is further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, it is to be understood that the embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and explanatory of the present invention and are not restrictive thereof.
First, the preconditions and the related part names of the method for locating a rescue point of the present invention are explained as follows:
1: the planning method is characterized in that a plurality of optimal rescue points are selected by ensuring the maximum requirement satisfaction rate of all disaster-affected points under the condition of site selection of the known alternative rescue points.
2: based on the characteristics of sudden disasters, the method abandons the traditional average distribution principle and performs relatively fair distribution on medical materials by taking the demand satisfaction rate of disaster-affected points and the point distance as measures.
3: the method adopts a graph storage structure to represent a road network, uses a solid triangle to represent a disaster point, uses a circle to represent an alternative rescue point, and connects existing main roads in a solid line mode to represent the road network.
4: for convenient and rapid calculation, the point distance is adopted to reflect the time distance, and the medical material distribution is restrained in a mode of weighting the minimum point distance.
Please refer to fig. 1, the medical rescue point location method considering the urgency of the demand of a disaster-affected point provided by the present invention assumes that I disaster-affected points and n alternative temporary rescue points appear in a certain area after a disaster occurs, the disaster-affected degree and the demand urgency degree of each disaster-affected point are different, the total demand of materials of each disaster-affected point is greater than the total supply of materials of each rescue point, and m optimal rescue points are selected from the n alternative temporary rescue points according to the maximum satisfaction rate and the minimum rescue total time; i belongs to Z, n belongs to Z, and m is less than or equal to n;
the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining relevant parameters of the alternative rescue points, including the number of effective alternative rescue points and the number of medical supplies of each alternative rescue point; the effective alternative rescue points are rescue points which can provide materials and do not lose the benefits of other objects;
please refer to fig. 2, which is an illustration of a disaster area in the present embodiment, assuming that a flood disaster occurs in the area; please refer to fig. 3, which is a disaster relief network diagram correspondingly constructed for a disaster area, wherein a solid triangle represents a center of a disaster-affected point, and a circle represents a center of an alternative rescue point; in disaster occurrence areas, hospitals and medical material storage points are selected as alternative rescue points, and the areas are not remote and easy to carry out medical transportation. The medical materials of the alternative rescue points have data statistics, and the disaster emergency management command group should contact the responsible persons of the alternative rescue points immediately to determine the reserve amount of the medical materials. The quantity of medical supplies reserved at rescue point i is represented as:
si＝{s1,s2,s3…|i∈Z}
step 2: calculating the demand urgency of each disaster-affected point;
performing regional division according to disaster attributes of disaster areas, counting disaster index information of each disaster point, and analyzing the urgency R of the five disaster indexes at the disaster point by using an analytic hierarchy processjThe weight occupied by (c);
the disaster index information comprises the injury degree u of the personnelj1Degree of damage u to buildingj2Road damage degree uj3Disaster recovery capability index uj4And disaster-derived probability uj5；
Urgency of demand RjComprises the following steps:
Rj＝αuj1+βuj2+θuj3+γuj4+δuj5；
Figure GDA0003624844150000041
uj2＝bj，
Figure GDA0003624844150000042
uj4＝dj，
uj5＝ej，
wherein, α, β, θ, γ, δ respectively represent the weight of five factors, namely the injury degree of personnel, the damage degree of buildings, the damage degree of roads, the disaster recovery capability index and the disaster derivation possibility, in the urgent degree of the demand of the disaster-affected point, and α + β + θ + γ + δ is 1; the number of injured people at the disaster-affected point j, the damage degree of buildings, the damaged area of roads, the disaster recovery capability index and the disaster derivation possibility are respectively expressed as aj、bj、cj、djAnd ej，uji∈[0,1]，i＝1,2,3,4,5，j∈Z。
In this embodiment, the disaster-affected point representative (hereinafter, referred to as a disaster-affected point) is selected according to geography and population, and a region with close geography and concentrated population is selected as the disaster-affected point representative, which is mainly represented by universities and school districts of residences. After a disaster occurs, a disaster unit needs to immediately count the disaster conditions of the unit, including the number of people injured at the disaster point, the damage degree of buildings, the damage degree of roads, the disaster recovery capability index and the like, and a meteorological department needs to scientifically estimate the disaster derivation possibility of a specific disaster point and report the disaster derivation possibility to an emergency rescue command group.
According to the characteristics of the place where the Wuhan flood disaster occurs, experts in the emergency rescue command group assign and score the five index weights, and calculate the demand urgency R by utilizing an analytic hierarchy processjThe values of alpha, beta, theta, gamma and delta are respectively 0.1397, 0.2095, 0.3142, 0.1571 and 0.1796 through calculation.
The number of injured people at the disaster-affected point j, the damage degree of buildings, the damaged area of roads, the disaster recovery capability index and the disaster derivation possibility are respectively expressed as aj、bj、cj、djAnd ejThen, the calculated disaster situation data of the disaster point j is represented as:
aj＝{a1,a2,a3…|j∈Z}
bj＝{b1,b2,b3…|j∈Z}
cj＝{c1,c2,c3…|j∈Z}
dj＝{d1,d2,d3…|j∈Z}
ej＝{e1,e2,e3…|j∈Z}
then, these data are normalized to obtain index values of the five index factors, namely:
Figure GDA0003624844150000051
uj2＝bj，j∈Z
Figure GDA0003624844150000052
uj4＝dj，j∈Z
uj5＝ej，j∈Z
from these calculations R is knownjIs a constant term, which facilitates the following solution model.
And step 3: judging the distance d from the center of each disaster-affected point to each alternative rescue point through GIS map softwareij；
Please see fig. 3, the distance d from the center of each disaster-affected point to each alternative rescue pointijThe method is used for predicting the time for transporting materials between each rescue point and each disaster-affected point, and since the rescues after the disaster are humanitarian rescues without counting the cost, all paths can be guaranteed to be delivered at the highest speed and have the same speed.
The concrete expression is as follows:
dij＝{d11,d12,d13…|i∈Z,j∈Z}
and 4, step 4: establishing a point information index table comprising geographical coordinates of alternative rescue points, geographical coordinates of disaster-affected points, the number of medical supplies provided by the rescue points and the number of medical supplies required by the disaster-affected points;
in this embodiment, system software such as an existing SuperMap natural disaster movement management system is used to bring the data into an emergency deployment database, and a point information index table is established, where the point information index table includes a candidate rescue point geographical coordinate, a disaster-affected point geographical coordinate, a number of medical supplies that can be provided by a rescue point, and a number of medical supplies required by a disaster-affected point.
And 5: determining whether road sections between any disaster-stricken point and the rescue point are communicated or not according to the actual road network condition, and constructing a communicable road section coverage matrix;
in this embodiment, whether a road segment between any disaster-stricken point and a rescue point is communicated is determined according to an actual road network condition, for example, if a broken road obstacle exists between two points and transportation vehicles such as helicopters and trucks cannot be dispatched due to the limitation of distance and area size, a transportation road segment between the two points needs to be removed, and finally a communicable road segment coverage matrix is constructed.
Step 6: solving by using a medical rescue point addressing model considering the urgency of the demand of the disaster-affected points after the disaster to obtain a plurality of optimal medical rescue points, and calculating the distribution amount of medical materials conveyed each time;
in this embodiment, a medical rescue point addressing model considering urgency of a disaster-affected point after a disaster is provided, and an objective function of the model is as follows:
Figure GDA0003624844150000061
Figure GDA0003624844150000062
wherein d isijThe shortest road distance from the rescue point i to the disaster affected point j is represented; x is the number ofijWhether the rescue point i delivers to the disaster-affected point j or not is represented; y isiIndicating whether a rescue point i is selected; qjRepresenting the medical material demand of the disaster point j; sijRepresenting the amount of goods and materials transported to the disaster-affected point j by the rescue point i; sigma represents the satisfaction rate of the disaster-affected point j; 1,2,3,4, 5;
constraint of the objective function:
Figure GDA0003624844150000071
sij≥0；
Figure GDA0003624844150000072
xij≤yi；
Figure GDA0003624844150000073
Figure GDA0003624844150000074
Figure GDA0003624844150000075
and finally, calculating by using Matlab to obtain an optimal solution set, wherein the number of elements in the optimal solution set is the value of m, and the corresponding rescue points can also be specifically determined.
It should be noted that the limitation of the individual to look up the data makes it impossible to obtain the specific data of the disaster-affected point and the rescue point, so that the data is represented by letters and the final model result is not affected.
It should be understood that parts of the specification not set forth in detail are well within the prior art.
It should be understood that the above description of the preferred embodiments is given for clarity and not for any purpose of limitation, and that various changes, substitutions and alterations can be made herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.

Claims (3)

1. A medical rescue point addressing method considering the urgency of requirements of disaster-affected points is characterized in that after a disaster occurs, I disaster-affected points and n alternative temporary rescue points appear in a certain area, the disaster-affected degree and the urgency of requirements of the disaster-affected points are different, the total material demand of the disaster-affected points is greater than the total material supply of the rescue points, and m optimal rescue points are selected from the n alternative temporary rescue points according to the maximum satisfaction rate and the minimum rescue total time; i belongs to Z, n belongs to Z, and m is less than or equal to n;
characterized in that the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining relevant parameters of the alternative rescue points, including the number of effective alternative rescue points and the number of medical supplies of each alternative rescue point; the effective alternative rescue points are rescue points which can provide materials and do not lose the benefits of other objects;
and 2, step: calculating the demand urgency of each disaster-affected point;
performing regional division according to disaster attributes of disaster areas, counting disaster index information of each disaster point, and analyzing the urgency R of the five disaster indexes at the disaster point by using an analytic hierarchy processjThe weight occupied by (c);
the disaster index information comprises the injury degree u of the personnelj1Degree of damage u to buildingj2Road damage degree uj3Disaster recovery capability index uj4And disaster-derived probability uj5；
And step 3: the distance d from the center of each disaster affected point to each alternative rescue point is judged through GIS map softwareij；
And 4, step 4: establishing a point information index table comprising geographical coordinates of alternative rescue points, geographical coordinates of disaster-affected points, the number of medical supplies provided by the rescue points and the number of medical supplies required by the disaster-affected points;
and 5: determining whether road sections between any disaster-affected point and the rescue point are communicated or not according to the actual road network condition, and constructing a communicable road section coverage matrix;
step 6: solving by using a medical rescue point addressing model considering the urgency of the demand of disaster-stricken points after disasters to obtain a plurality of optimal medical rescue points, and calculating the distribution quantity of medical materials conveyed each time;
the medical rescue point addressing model considering the urgency of the demand of the disaster-affected point after disaster has the following objective function:
Figure FDA0003624844140000011
Figure FDA0003624844140000012
wherein d isijThe shortest road distance from the rescue point i to the disaster affected point j is represented; x is the number ofijWhether the rescue point i delivers to the disaster-affected point j or not is represented; y isiIndicating whether a rescue point i is selected; qjRepresenting the medical material demand of the disaster point j; sijRepresenting the amount of goods and materials transported to the disaster-affected point j by the rescue point i; sigma represents the satisfaction rate of the disaster-affected point j; 1,2,3,4, 5;
constraint of the objective function:
Figure FDA0003624844140000021
sij≥0；
Figure FDA0003624844140000022
xij≤yi；
Figure FDA0003624844140000023
Figure FDA0003624844140000024
Figure FDA0003624844140000025
2. the method for locating medical rescue points according to claim 1, wherein the urgency of demand R in step 2 isjComprises the following steps:
Rj＝αuj1+βuj2+θuj3+γuj4+δuj5；
Figure FDA0003624844140000026
uj2＝bj，
Figure FDA0003624844140000027
uj4＝dj，
uj5＝ej，
wherein, α, β, θ, γ, δ respectively represent the weight of five factors of the injury degree of personnel, the damage degree of buildings, the damage degree of roads, the disaster recovery capability index and the disaster derivation possibility in the urgent degree of the requirement of the disaster-affected point, and α + β + θ + γ + δ is 1; the number of injured people at the disaster-affected point j, the damage degree of buildings, the damaged area of roads, the disaster recovery capability index and the disaster derivation possibility are respectively expressed as aj、bj、cj、djAnd ej，uji∈[0,1]，i＝1,2,3,4,5，j∈Z。
3. The medical rescue point addressing method considering urgency of demand for a disaster-stricken point as claimed in claim 1, wherein: and 3, the distance d from the center of each disaster-affected point to each alternative rescue pointijFor predicting the location of rescue points and disaster-affected pointsThe time of transporting materials is reduced, wherein each path can ensure the highest speed to be delivered, and the speed is the same.
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