CN109991494A - A kind of electric-thermal coupling system fault early warning method and early warning device - Google Patents

A kind of electric-thermal coupling system fault early warning method and early warning device Download PDF

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CN109991494A
CN109991494A CN201910242316.4A CN201910242316A CN109991494A CN 109991494 A CN109991494 A CN 109991494A CN 201910242316 A CN201910242316 A CN 201910242316A CN 109991494 A CN109991494 A CN 109991494A
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early warning
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CN109991494B (en
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王可欣
程剑
兰峰
卢福木
王明明
石冰珂
邱轩宇
李宗蔚
李越
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

本发明实施例公开了一种电‑热耦合系统故障预警方法及预警装置,方法包括获取电‑热耦合系统元件的数据,确定系统的初始运行状态;依次模拟电热耦合系统中元件故障,更新系统的数据,采用最优模型确定当前故障对系统造成的负荷切除量;判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值,并在超过阈值时,发出预警信号。所述装置分别连接电‑热耦合系统和调度机构。本发明基于系统当前运行状态,模拟预想故障对电‑热耦合系统产生的影响,并给调度机构提供预警信号,精确、有效进行故障影响预判。调控机构可针对该故障提出应对预案,避免在实际出现稿故障后,造成严重损失。

The embodiment of the present invention discloses a fault early warning method and early warning device for an electric-thermal coupling system. The method includes acquiring data of elements of the electric-thermal coupling system, determining the initial operating state of the system; simulating the failure of components in the electric-thermal coupling system in sequence, and updating the system The optimal model is used to determine the load shedding amount caused by the current fault to the system; it is judged whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold, and when it exceeds the threshold, an early warning signal is issued. The devices are respectively connected to the electrical-thermal coupling system and the dispatching mechanism. Based on the current operating state of the system, the present invention simulates the impact of the predicted fault on the electric-thermal coupling system, provides an early warning signal to the dispatching agency, and accurately and effectively predicts the impact of the fault. The regulatory agency can propose a response plan for the failure to avoid serious losses after the actual manuscript failure occurs.

Description

一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法及预警装置A kind of electric-thermal coupling system fault early warning method and early warning device

技术领域technical field

本发明涉及多种能源系统故障预防处置技术领域,具体地说是一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法及预警装置。The invention relates to the technical field of fault prevention and disposal of various energy systems, in particular to a fault early warning method and early warning device for an electric-thermal coupling system.

背景技术Background technique

随着热泵技术的大规模应用,电力系统与热力系统的耦合不断紧密。如图1所示,电-热耦合系统主要包括电力系统、热力系统和热泵三部分,其中热泵连接热力系统和电力系统,消耗电力系统中的电能向热力系统提供热能。热力系统包括多个热力节点,每个热力节点上安装有热力设备及热力负荷,热力节点间通过管道相连,管道中存有水作为介质向热力负荷提供热能。受热力负荷和热泵的影响,热力节点的输入温度与输出温度不同,电力系统主要由多个电力节点组成,每个电力节点上有发电机和电力负荷,各个电力节点间通过线路相连。With the large-scale application of heat pump technology, the coupling between the power system and the thermal system is becoming more and more close. As shown in Figure 1, the electric-thermal coupling system mainly includes three parts: the power system, the thermal system and the heat pump. The heat pump connects the thermal system and the power system, and consumes the electric energy in the power system to provide thermal energy to the thermal system. The thermal system includes a plurality of thermal nodes, and each thermal node is installed with thermal equipment and thermal loads. The thermal nodes are connected by pipes, and there is water in the pipes as a medium to provide thermal energy to the thermal load. Affected by the thermal load and heat pump, the input temperature of the thermal node is different from the output temperature. The power system is mainly composed of multiple power nodes. Each power node has generators and power loads, and each power node is connected by lines.

在日常运行中,热力系统或电力系统中任一元件故障都将给另一个系统的安全可靠运行带来巨大挑战,电-热耦合系统的可靠性问题逐渐被重视。现有的故障预警装置仅能预警热力系统或电力系统中单一系统的故障,无法处理电-热两种能源系统耦合的情况,因此现阶段缺少一种能有效预警电-热耦合系统中出现故障的装置。若仍采用现有的故障预警装置,可能使得热力系统中出现的故障难以被及时有效地监测出来,对电力系统的影响也难以有效评估,进而导致电-热耦合系统中的故障难以解决,系统安全稳定运行由此面临较大的风险。In daily operation, the failure of any component in the thermal system or the power system will bring great challenges to the safe and reliable operation of the other system. The existing fault early warning device can only warn the fault of a single system in the thermal system or the power system, and cannot handle the coupling of the two energy systems of electricity and heat. installation. If the existing fault early warning device is still used, it may be difficult to monitor the faults in the thermal system in a timely and effective manner, and the impact on the power system will also be difficult to effectively evaluate, which will lead to difficulties in solving the faults in the electric-thermal coupled system. The safe and stable operation thus faces greater risks.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

本发明实施例中提供了一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法及预警装置,以解决现有技术中无法有效预警电-热耦合系统中出现的故障,对系统的安全稳定运行造成巨大威胁的问题。The embodiment of the present invention provides a fault early warning method and early warning device for an electric-thermal coupling system, so as to solve the problem that the failure in the electric-thermal coupling system cannot be effectively warned in the prior art, which poses a huge threat to the safe and stable operation of the system. question.

为了解决上述技术问题,本发明实施例公开了如下技术方案:In order to solve the above technical problems, the embodiments of the present invention disclose the following technical solutions:

本发明第一方面提供了一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,包括以下步骤:A first aspect of the present invention provides a fault early warning method for an electric-thermal coupling system, comprising the following steps:

获取电-热耦合系统元件的数据,确定系统的初始运行状态;Obtain the data of the components of the electro-thermal coupling system to determine the initial operating state of the system;

依次模拟电热耦合系统中元件故障,更新系统的数据,采用最优模型确定当前故障对系统造成的负荷切除量;Simulate the component failures in the electrothermal coupled system in turn, update the data of the system, and use the optimal model to determine the load shedding amount caused by the current failure to the system;

判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值,并在超过阈值时,发出预警信号。It is judged whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold, and when it exceeds the threshold, an early warning signal is issued.

进一步地,所述系统的初始运行状态包括发电机的输出功率、发电机的最大功率、节点电压、线路电功率、节点热负荷、节点的输入温度和输出温度、环境温度、热泵消耗的电功率、产生的热功率以及电热比。Further, the initial operating state of the system includes the output power of the generator, the maximum power of the generator, the node voltage, the line electric power, the heat load of the node, the input temperature and the output temperature of the node, the ambient temperature, the electric power consumed by the heat pump, the generation of thermal power and electric to heat ratio.

进一步地,所述最优模型的目标函数为:Further, the objective function of the optimal model is:

式中,LPDi表示电力网络中节点i处电力负荷的切除量,LQDm表示热力网络中节点m处热力负荷的切除量。In the formula, LPD i represents the removal amount of electrical load at node i in the power network, and LQD m represents the removal amount of thermal load at node m in the thermal network.

进一步地,所述最优模型的约束条件包括电力系统约束条件、热力系统约束条件和电热耦合约束。Further, the constraints of the optimal model include power system constraints, thermal system constraints and electrothermal coupling constraints.

进一步地,所述电力系统约束条件包括电力系统节点有功功率和无功功率平衡约束、电力系统发电机出力约束、电力系统电压约束和电力系统线路潮流约束。Further, the power system constraints include power system node active power and reactive power balance constraints, power system generator output constraints, power system voltage constraints and power system line flow constraints.

进一步地,所述热力系统约束条件包括热力系统节点流量平衡约束、热力系统管道流量约束、热力系统节点压强约束和电热耦合约束。Further, the thermal system constraints include a thermal system node flow balance constraint, a thermal system pipeline flow constraint, a thermal system node pressure constraint, and an electrothermal coupling constraint.

进一步地,所述判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值,并在超过阈值时,发出预警信号具体为:Further, determining whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold, and when exceeding the threshold, issuing an early warning signal is specifically:

LPD*表示电力系统中电负荷切除总量阈值,LQD*表示热力系统中热负荷切除总量阈值;LPD* represents the total electrical load shedding threshold in the power system, and LQD * represents the total thermal load shedding threshold in the thermal system;

若在当前元件故障下,满足上式的任一式,则发出预警信号。If any of the above formulas are satisfied under the current component failure, an early warning signal will be issued.

本发明第二方面提供了一种电-热耦合系统故障预警装置,所述装置分别连接电-热耦合系统和调度机构。A second aspect of the present invention provides an electric-thermal coupling system fault early warning device, which is respectively connected to the electric-thermal coupling system and the dispatching mechanism.

进一步地,所述装置包括:Further, the device includes:

数据采集单元,用于获取电-热耦合系统元件的数据,确定系统的初始运行状态;The data acquisition unit is used to acquire the data of the components of the electro-thermal coupling system and determine the initial operating state of the system;

故障模拟计算单元,用于模拟元件故障,更新系统的数据,采用最优模型确定当前故障对系统造成的负荷切除量;The fault simulation calculation unit is used to simulate component faults, update the data of the system, and use the optimal model to determine the load shedding amount caused by the current fault to the system;

结果预判单元,判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值;a result pre-judgment unit to judge whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold;

通信单元,在超过阈值时,向调度机构发送预警信号。The communication unit sends an early warning signal to the dispatching agency when the threshold value is exceeded.

发明内容中提供的效果仅仅是实施例的效果,而不是发明所有的全部效果,上述技术方案中的一个技术方案具有如下优点或有益效果:The effects provided in the summary of the invention are only the effects of the embodiments, rather than all the effects of the invention. One of the above technical solutions has the following advantages or beneficial effects:

1、通过获取电-热耦合系统中电网与热网的运行数据,明确电网与热网当前的运行状态,在当前运行状态的基础上,预估电网或者热网中任一元件故障后对电-热耦合系统可能造成的影响,进而给出预警信号。以协助调度机构制定应对策略,对于元件故障后,可能造成的影响制定应对预案,对于保证耦合系统的安全可靠运行具有重要意义。1. By obtaining the operation data of the power grid and the heat network in the electric-thermal coupling system, the current operating state of the power grid and the heat network is clarified, and on the basis of the current operating state, it is estimated that the power grid or the heat network will be damaged after any component fails. - Possible effects of thermally coupled systems, which in turn give early warning signals. In order to assist the dispatching agency to formulate coping strategies, it is of great significance to formulate coping plans for the possible impact of component failures, which is of great significance to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the coupled system.

2、模拟某一元件故障后,将电力系统负荷切除量和热力系统负荷切除量的最小值作为目标函数,在约束条件下,计算当前元件故障下系统的负荷切除量,并将该负荷切除量与系统中负荷切除量阈值进行比较,以此来判断当前元件故障对系统的影响,精确、有效的进行故障影响预判。2. After simulating the failure of a certain component, take the minimum value of the load shedding amount of the power system and the thermal system load shedding amount as the objective function, under the constraint condition, calculate the load shedding amount of the system under the current component failure, and calculate the load shedding amount of the system. Compare with the load shedding threshold in the system to judge the impact of the current component failure on the system, and accurately and effectively predict the impact of the failure.

附图说明Description of drawings

为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例或现有技术中的技术方案,下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍,显而易见地,对于本领域普通技术人员而言,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the accompanying drawings that need to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art. In other words, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings without creative labor.

图1是现有技术中电-热耦合系统结构示意图;1 is a schematic structural diagram of an electrical-thermal coupling system in the prior art;

图2是本发明所述方法实施例的流程示意图;Fig. 2 is the schematic flow chart of the method embodiment of the present invention;

图3是本发明所述装置实施例的结构示意图。FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of the device according to the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

为能清楚说明本方案的技术特点,下面通过具体实施方式,并结合其附图,对本发明进行详细阐述。下文的公开提供了许多不同的实施例或例子用来实现本发明的不同结构。为了简化本发明的公开,下文中对特定例子的部件和设置进行描述。此外,本发明可以在不同例子中重复参考数字和/或字母。这种重复是为了简化和清楚的目的,其本身不指示所讨论各种实施例和/或设置之间的关系。应当注意,在附图中所图示的部件不一定按比例绘制。本发明省略了对公知组件和处理技术及工艺的描述以避免不必要地限制本发明。In order to clearly illustrate the technical features of the solution, the present invention will be described in detail below through specific embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following disclosure provides many different embodiments or examples for implementing different structures of the invention. In order to simplify the disclosure of the present invention, the components and arrangements of specific examples are described below. Furthermore, the present invention may repeat reference numerals and/or letters in different instances. This repetition is for the purpose of simplicity and clarity and does not in itself indicate a relationship between the various embodiments and/or arrangements discussed. It should be noted that the components illustrated in the figures are not necessarily drawn to scale. Descriptions of well-known components and processing techniques and processes are omitted from the present invention to avoid unnecessarily limiting the present invention.

如图2所示,本发明的电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,包括以下步骤:As shown in Figure 2, the fault early warning method of the electric-thermal coupling system of the present invention comprises the following steps:

S1,获取电-热耦合系统元件的数据,确定系统的初始运行状态;S1, obtain the data of the components of the electro-thermal coupling system, and determine the initial operating state of the system;

S2,依次模拟电热耦合系统中元件故障,更新系统的数据,采用最优模型确定当前故障对系统造成的负荷切除量;S2, simulate the component faults in the electrothermal coupling system in turn, update the data of the system, and use the optimal model to determine the load shedding amount caused by the current fault to the system;

S3,判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值,并在超过阈值时,发出预警信号。S3, determine whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold, and when it exceeds the threshold, an early warning signal is issued.

步骤S1中,通过电力网和热力网中的传感器采集,获取电-热耦合系统元件的数据,确定电-热耦合系统的初始运行状态,包括电力系统:发电机的输出功率、发电机的最大功率、节点电压、电力负荷和线路上流过的电功率等;热力系统:节点热负荷、节点的输入温度和输出温度、环境温度等;热泵:消耗的电功率、产生的热功率和电热比。In step S1, the data of the elements of the electric-thermal coupling system are acquired through sensor acquisition in the power grid and the thermal power grid, and the initial operating state of the electric-thermal coupling system is determined, including the power system: the output power of the generator, the maximum power of the generator , node voltage, electrical load and electrical power flowing on the line, etc.; thermal system: node thermal load, node input and output temperature, ambient temperature, etc.; heat pump: consumed electrical power, generated thermal power and electrical-to-heat ratio.

步骤S2中,基于步骤S1中确定的系统的初始运行状态,依次模拟电-热耦合系统中元件的故障,如热泵、发电机、线路等,以发电机、热泵故障为例,发电机故障后,其最大功率从初始状态值下降为0;热泵故障会使得热泵不能再将电能转化为热,即电热比从初始状态值下降为0。在元件故障后,更新电-热耦合系统的数据,运用最优模型确定该故障对系统造成的负荷切除量。In step S2, based on the initial operating state of the system determined in step S1, the failures of components in the electric-thermal coupled system, such as heat pumps, generators, lines, etc., are simulated in turn. , its maximum power decreases from the initial state value to 0; the heat pump failure will make the heat pump unable to convert electrical energy into heat, that is, the electric-heat ratio decreases from the initial state value to 0. After a component failure, the data of the electric-thermal coupled system is updated, and the optimal model is used to determine the load shedding amount caused by the failure to the system.

该最优模型的目标函数表示为故障后系统损失最小:The objective function of this optimal model is expressed as the minimum system loss after failure:

(1)式中,LPDi表示电力网络中节点i处电力负荷的切除量,LQDm表示热力网络中节点m处热力负荷的切除量。In formula (1), LPD i represents the removal amount of the electrical load at the node i in the power network, and LQD m represents the removal amount of the thermal load at the node m in the thermal network.

约束条件包括电力系统约束、热力系统约束和电热耦合约束。Constraints include power system constraints, thermal system constraints, and electro-thermal coupling constraints.

电力系统约束为:The power system constraints are:

a)电力系统节点有功功率、无功功率平衡约束a) Power system node active power and reactive power balance constraints

(2)(3)式中,PGi和QGi分别表示电力网络中节点i处发电机的有功功率和无功功率,PDi和QDi分别表示电力网络中节点i处的有功负荷和无功负荷,PEBi为节点i处热泵消耗的电功率,Vi和Vj表示节点i和节点j处的电压,Gij和Bij分别为节点i和节点j间的电导和电纳;i和j表示线路的两个端点。(2) (3) where P Gi and Q Gi represent the active power and reactive power of the generator at node i in the power network, respectively, and P Di and Q Di represent the active load and reactive power at node i in the power network, respectively. power load, P EBi is the electrical power consumed by the heat pump at node i, V i and V j are the voltages at node i and node j, G ij and B ij are the conductance and susceptance between node i and node j, respectively; i and j represents the two endpoints of the line.

b)电力系统发电机出力约束b) Power system generator output constraints

(4)(5)式中,分别表示节点i处发电机的有功功率的下限和上限,分别表示节点i处发电机的无功功率的下限和上限。In formula (4)(5), and represent the lower and upper limits of the active power of the generator at node i, respectively, and represent the lower and upper limits of the reactive power of the generator at node i, respectively.

c)电力系统电压约束c) Power system voltage constraints

(6)式中,分别表示节点i处发电机电压的下限和上限。In formula (6), and are the lower and upper limits of the generator voltage at node i, respectively.

d)电力系统线路潮流约束d) Power system line flow constraints

Pij=ViVj(Gijcosθij+Bij sinθij)-Vi 2Gij (7)P ij =V i V j (G ij cosθ ij +B ij sinθ ij )-V i 2 G ij (7)

(7)(8)式中,Pij分别表示节点i和节点j间线路流过的电功率和功率上限。(7) (8), P ij and Represents the electric power and the upper limit of power flowing through the line between node i and node j, respectively.

热力系统约束为:The thermal system constraints are:

e)热力系统节点流量平衡约束e) Nodal flow balance constraint of thermal system

(9)-(13)式中,Lm表示节点m处负荷的需水量,Cp表示水的比热容,φm表示热力系统中节点m处的热负荷,φEBm为与电力系统节点i相连的热力系统节点m处的热泵的热功率,Tsm和Trm分别为节点m处负荷的输入温度和输出温度,Tsn和Trn分别为节点n处负荷的输入温度和输出温度,τm为节点m处注水总量,τmn为节点m和节点n间管道的水流量,hm和hn分别为热力系统中节点m和节点n处的压强,Kmn为热力系统中节点m和节点n间管道的阻抗系数,Te为外界的自然温度,λ为管道的传输阻抗,dmn为节点m和节点n间的管道长度;m、n分别表示管道两端的节点。In equations (9)-(13), L m is the water demand of the load at node m, C p is the specific heat capacity of water, φ m is the heat load at node m in the thermal system, and φ EBm is connected to node i of the power system. The thermal power of the heat pump at node m of the thermal system, T sm and T rm are the input temperature and output temperature of the load at node m, respectively, T sn and T rn are the input temperature and output temperature of the load at node n, respectively, τ m is the total amount of water injected at node m, τ mn is the water flow of the pipe between node m and node n, h m and h n are the pressures at node m and node n in the thermal system, respectively, K mn is the node m and n in the thermal system. The impedance coefficient of the pipeline between node n , Te is the natural temperature of the outside world, λ is the transmission impedance of the pipeline, and dmn is the length of the pipeline between node m and node n; m and n represent the nodes at both ends of the pipeline, respectively.

f)热力系统管道流量约束f) Thermal system piping flow constraints

(14)式中,分别表示节点m和节点n间的管道水流量的下限和上限。(14) where, and represent the lower and upper limits of the pipe water flow between node m and node n, respectively.

g)热力系统节点压强约束g) Nodal pressure constraint of thermal system

(15)式中,分别表示节点m处压强的下限和上限。In formula (15), and are the lower and upper limits of the pressure at node m, respectively.

电热偶合约束:Thermocouple Constraints:

(16)式中,Z表示与电力系统节点i和热力系统节点m处相连的热泵的电热比。In formula (16), Z represents the electric-to-heat ratio of the heat pump connected to the power system node i and the thermal system node m.

步骤S3中,根据步骤S2中求得的模拟故障下电-热耦合系统的负荷切除量,采用下式判断是否会对系统的安全运行造成影响:In step S3, according to the load shedding amount of the electric-thermal coupling system under the simulated fault obtained in step S2, the following formula is used to determine whether it will affect the safe operation of the system:

(17)(18)式中,LPD*表示电力系统中电负荷切除总量阈值,LQD*表示热力系统中热负荷切除总量阈值。(17) (18) In formula, LPD * represents the total electrical load shedding threshold in the power system, and LQD * represents the total thermal load shedding threshold in the thermal system.

若在某个故障下,得到的电力负荷总切除量或热力负荷总切除量大于阈值,即满足公式(17)或(18),则认为该故障会影响电-热耦合系统的安全运行,此时将该故障情况发给系统调控机构,向调控机构提供预警信号。调控机构可针对该故障提出应对预案,避免在实际出现稿故障后,造成严重损失。If under a certain fault, the obtained total removal of electric load or total removal of thermal load is greater than the threshold value, that is, formula (17) or (18) is satisfied, then it is considered that the fault will affect the safe operation of the electric-thermal coupled system. From time to time, the fault situation will be sent to the system control agency, and an early warning signal will be provided to the control agency. The regulatory agency can propose a response plan for the failure to avoid serious losses after the actual manuscript failure occurs.

如图3所示,本发明实施例的电-热耦合系统故障预警装置分别连接电-热耦合系统和调度机构。装置包括数据采集单元、故障模拟单元、结果预判单元和通信单元。数据采集单元用于获取电-热耦合系统元件的数据,确定系统的初始运行状态;故障模拟计算单元用于模拟元件故障,更新系统的数据,采用最优模型确定当前故障对系统造成的负荷切除量;结果预判单元,判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值;通信单元,在超过阈值时,向调度机构发送预警信号。As shown in FIG. 3 , the electric-thermal coupling system fault warning device according to the embodiment of the present invention is respectively connected to the electric-thermal coupling system and the dispatching mechanism. The device includes a data acquisition unit, a fault simulation unit, a result prediction unit and a communication unit. The data acquisition unit is used to obtain the data of the components of the electric-thermal coupling system and determine the initial operating state of the system; the fault simulation calculation unit is used to simulate the component failure, update the data of the system, and use the optimal model to determine the load shedding caused by the current fault to the system The result pre-judging unit judges whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold; the communication unit sends an early warning signal to the dispatching agency when it exceeds the threshold.

以上所述只是本发明的优选实施方式,对于本技术领域的普通技术人员来说,在不脱离本发明原理的前提下,还可以做出若干改进和润饰,这些改进和润饰也被视为本发明的保护范围。The above are only the preferred embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, without departing from the principles of the present invention, several improvements and modifications can be made, and these improvements and modifications are also regarded as the present invention. the scope of protection of the invention.

Claims (9)

1.一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,其特征是,包括以下步骤:1. an electric-thermal coupling system fault early warning method, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps: 获取电-热耦合系统元件的数据,确定系统的初始运行状态;Obtain the data of the components of the electro-thermal coupling system to determine the initial operating state of the system; 依次模拟电热耦合系统中元件故障,更新系统的数据,采用最优模型确定当前故障对系统造成的负荷切除量;Simulate the component failures in the electrothermal coupled system in turn, update the data of the system, and use the optimal model to determine the load shedding amount caused by the current failure to the system; 判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值,并在超过阈值时,发出预警信号。It is judged whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold, and when it exceeds the threshold, an early warning signal is issued. 2.根据权利要求1所述的一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,其特征是,所述系统的初始运行状态包括发电机的输出功率、发电机的最大功率、节点电压、线路电功率、节点热负荷、节点的输入温度和输出温度、环境温度、热泵消耗的电功率、产生的热功率以及电热比。2. The fault early warning method for an electric-thermal coupled system according to claim 1, wherein the initial operating state of the system comprises the output power of the generator, the maximum power of the generator, the node voltage, the line electric power, Node heat load, node input and output temperatures, ambient temperature, electrical power consumed by the heat pump, thermal power produced, and electrical-to-heat ratio. 3.根据权利要求1所述的一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,其特征是,所述最优模型的目标函数为:3. a kind of electric-thermal coupling system fault early warning method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the objective function of described optimal model is: 式中,LPDi表示电力网络中节点i处电力负荷的切除量,LQDm表示热力网络中节点m处热力负荷的切除量。In the formula, LPD i represents the removal amount of electrical load at node i in the power network, and LQD m represents the removal amount of thermal load at node m in the thermal network. 4.根据权利要求3所述的一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,其特征是,所述最优模型的约束条件包括电力系统约束条件、热力系统约束条件和电热耦合约束。4 . The fault early warning method for an electric-thermal coupled system according to claim 3 , wherein the constraints of the optimal model include power system constraints, thermal system constraints and electro-thermal coupling constraints. 5 . 5.根据权利要求4所述的一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,其特征是,所述电力系统约束条件包括电力系统节点有功功率和无功功率平衡约束、电力系统发电机出力约束、电力系统电压约束和电力系统线路潮流约束。5 . The fault early warning method for an electric-thermal coupled system according to claim 4 , wherein the power system constraints include the power system node active power and reactive power balance constraints, the power system generator output constraints, 5 . Power system voltage constraints and power system line flow constraints. 6.根据权利要求4所述的一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,其特征是,所述热力系统约束条件包括热力系统节点流量平衡约束、热力系统管道流量约束、热力系统节点压强约束和电热耦合约束。6 . The fault early warning method for an electric-thermal coupled system according to claim 4 , wherein the thermal system constraint conditions include a thermal system node flow balance constraint, a thermal system pipeline flow constraint, a thermal system node pressure constraint, and a thermal system node pressure constraint. Electrothermal coupling constraints. 7.根据权利要求4所述的一种电-热耦合系统故障预警方法,其特征是,所述判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值,并在超过阈值时,发出预警信号具体为:7. A fault early warning method for an electric-thermal coupling system according to claim 4, wherein the judgment is to determine whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold, and when the threshold is exceeded, an early warning signal is sent out. for: LPD*表示电力系统中电负荷切除总量阈值,LQD*表示热力系统中热负荷切除总量阈值;LPD * represents the total electrical load shedding threshold in the power system, LQD * represents the total thermal load shedding threshold in the thermal system; 若在当前元件故障下,满足上式的任一式,则发出预警信号。If any of the above formulas are satisfied under the current component failure, an early warning signal will be issued. 8.一种电-热耦合系统故障预警装置,所述装置包括权利要求1-7任一项所述的方法,其特征是,所述装置分别连接电-热耦合系统和调度机构。8 . An electrical-thermal coupling system fault warning device, the device comprising the method of any one of claims 1-7 , wherein the device is respectively connected to the electrical-thermal coupling system and the dispatching mechanism. 9 . 9.根据权利要求8所述的一种电-热耦合系统故障预警装置,其特征是,所述装置包括:9. The fault warning device of an electric-thermal coupling system according to claim 8, wherein the device comprises: 数据采集单元,用于获取电-热耦合系统元件的数据,确定系统的初始运行状态;The data acquisition unit is used to acquire the data of the components of the electro-thermal coupling system and determine the initial operating state of the system; 故障模拟计算单元,用于模拟元件故障,更新系统的数据,采用最优模型确定当前故障对系统造成的负荷切除量;The fault simulation calculation unit is used to simulate component faults, update the data of the system, and use the optimal model to determine the load shedding amount caused by the current fault to the system; 结果预判单元,判断所述负荷切除量是否超过系统负荷切除量阈值;a result pre-judgment unit to judge whether the load shedding amount exceeds the system load shedding amount threshold; 通信单元,在超过阈值时,向调度机构发送预警信号。The communication unit sends an early warning signal to the dispatching agency when the threshold value is exceeded.
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