CN109977444B - Bus load prediction data correction method for power generation plan optimization - Google Patents

Bus load prediction data correction method for power generation plan optimization Download PDF

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CN109977444B
CN109977444B CN201711463089.5A CN201711463089A CN109977444B CN 109977444 B CN109977444 B CN 109977444B CN 201711463089 A CN201711463089 A CN 201711463089A CN 109977444 B CN109977444 B CN 109977444B
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bus load
power generation
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张轩
白杨
陈雨果
蔡秋娜
王彬
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Electric Power Dispatch Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for correcting bus load prediction data for power generation plan optimization; calculating a bus load correction factor in each time period in the power generation plan optimization process on the basis of power generation plan optimization, and effectively correcting the bus load prediction data by adding the correction factor; the problem that the load flow calculation error of a safety check link in the power generation plan optimization process is large due to the fact that the prediction accuracy of the bus load is too low is effectively solved; meanwhile, accuracy of load flow calculation is improved.

Description

Bus load prediction data correction method for power generation plan optimization
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power dispatching automation, in particular to a method for correcting bus load prediction data for power generation plan optimization.
Background
At present, the bus load prediction is the sum of terminal loads supplied to a relatively small power supply area by a main transformer of a transformer substation, and is a refinement of system loads. The prediction of the bus load is the off-grid load of the transformer substation, and is the node load of the power grid. Therefore, the bus load prediction takes the node load as a prediction object, generally only short-term load prediction is carried out, and the prediction result provides hypothetical load flow data for the power grid to carry out power grid load flow calculation.
Since the prediction of the bus load is to be performed on the load of the substation off-grid, it is difficult to perform the actual prediction process as follows:
1. the base number of the bus load is smaller than that of the system load, and the regularity is weak
2. Under the influence of the user and the small power supply behavior in the power supply area, the bus load is easy to generate sudden change, the stability is poor, and more burrs exist;
3. data quality is not high due to data acquisition and transmission errors, and data mutation caused by operation mode change;
4. because the power supply range is small, the randomness of the user is large, the uncertain factors are many, and the trend of load change is not obvious;
5. the load curve difference between different buses is large, and the load change trend is not obvious.
The power grid load flow needs to be calculated in a safety check link in power generation plan optimization, and accurate bus load prediction data is needed to be injected as a node. However, due to the above factors, the bus load prediction accuracy is not high, and the bus load prediction is not matched with the system load prediction, so that the load flow calculation error is large.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for correcting the bus load prediction data for optimizing the power generation plan, which aims to solve one or more of the defects.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
a bus load prediction data correction method for power generation plan optimization comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring relevant data of a power generation plan;
s2, establishing a safety constraint economic dispatching model;
s3, performing optimization calculation on the economic dispatching model;
s4, counting and optimizing the total output of the unit, the net input power of a connecting line and the total sum of the original bus load prediction;
s5, calculating a bus load correction factor;
and S6, correcting the bus load prediction data.
In the scheme, on the basis of power generation plan optimization, a bus load correction factor in each time period is calculated in the power generation plan optimization process, and the bus load prediction data is effectively corrected by adding the correction factor; the problem that the load flow calculation error of a safety check link in the power generation plan optimization process is large due to the fact that the prediction accuracy of the bus load is too low is effectively solved; meanwhile, accuracy of load flow calculation is improved.
Preferably, the data related to the power generation plan include system load prediction, unit operating cost, unit output upper and lower limits, unit ramp rate and net tie line input power.
Preferably, the objective function of the safety constraint economic dispatching model is minimization of electricity purchasing cost, and the formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0001530565420000021
wherein: n represents the total number of the units; t represents the total number of considered time periods, and assuming 96 time periods are considered in one day, T is 96; pi,tRepresenting the output of the unit i in the time period t; ci,t(Pi,t) The operating cost of the unit i in the time period t is a multi-segment linear function of the unit output.
Preferably, the constraint conditions of the objective function of the safety constraint economic dispatching model include system constraints and unit constraints.
Preferably, the system constraint is a load balancing constraint, and the load balancing constraint is specifically as follows:
for each time period t, the load balancing constraint may be described as:
Figure BDA0001530565420000022
wherein, Pi,tRepresenting the output of the unit i in the time period t, DtFor system load prediction for period T, TtNet power is sent to the tie for the t period.
Preferably, the unit constraints comprise unit output upper and lower limit constraints and unit climbing constraints;
the unit output upper and lower limits are specifically restricted as follows:
the capacity of the unit should be within its maximum/minimum technical capacity, and its constraint can be described as:
Figure BDA0001530565420000031
the unit climbing restraint is as follows:
when the unit climbs up or down, the requirement of climbing speed is met; the hill climbing constraint can be described as:
Figure BDA0001530565420000032
wherein, Δ Pi UThe maximum upward slope climbing rate of the unit i,
Figure BDA0001530565420000033
the maximum downward climbing rate of the unit i.
Preferably, the step S3 specifically includes: performing optimization calculation by adopting a simplex method to obtain and store an optimization result; the optimization result is mainly the output of each optimization unit in each time period.
Preferably, the step S4 is as follows:
optimizing the total output of the unit, namely the output X (1-plant power consumption rate) of all units;
optimized unit total output at t time interval
Figure BDA0001530565420000034
Wherein R isiThe plant power rate of the unit i is obtained;
the net input power of the tie line in the period of T is Tt；
Bus load prediction power summation in t period
Figure BDA0001530565420000035
Wherein b is the bus serial number, NbIs the total number of bus bars, Db,tIs the original bus load prediction of bus b during time t.
Preferably, the step S5 is as follows: calculating a bus load correction factor
Figure BDA0001530565420000036
The step S6 is specifically as follows:
for each bus b in each time period t, the corrected bus load is predicted to be
Figure BDA0001530565420000041
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: in the scheme, on the basis of power generation plan optimization, a bus load correction factor in each time period is calculated in the power generation plan optimization process, and the bus load prediction data is effectively corrected by adding the correction factor; the problem that the load flow calculation error of a safety check link in the power generation plan optimization process is large due to the fact that the prediction accuracy of the bus load is too low is effectively solved; meanwhile, accuracy of load flow calculation is improved.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of bus load forecast data modification for power generation plan optimization in accordance with the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
A method for correcting bus load prediction data for power generation plan optimization is shown in a flow chart of fig. 1: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring relevant data of a power generation plan;
s2, establishing a safety constraint economic dispatching model;
s3, performing optimization calculation on the economic dispatching model;
s4, counting and optimizing the total output of the unit, the net input power of a connecting line and the total sum of the original bus load prediction;
s5, calculating a bus load correction factor;
and S6, correcting the bus load prediction data.
In the embodiment, based on the optimization of the power generation plan, the bus load correction factor in each time period is calculated in the optimization process of the power generation plan, and the bus load prediction data is effectively corrected by adding the correction factor; the problem that the load flow calculation error of a safety check link in the power generation plan optimization process is large due to the fact that the prediction accuracy of the bus load is too low is effectively solved; meanwhile, accuracy of load flow calculation is improved.
In this embodiment, the data related to the power generation plan includes system load prediction, unit operating cost, upper and lower limits of unit output, unit ramp rate, and net tie line input power.
In this embodiment, the objective function of the safety-constrained economic dispatch model is the minimization of the electricity purchasing cost, and the formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0001530565420000051
wherein: n represents the total number of the units; t represents the total number of considered time periods, and assuming 96 time periods are considered in one day, T is 96; pi,tRepresenting the output of the unit i in the time period t; ci,t(Pi,t) The operating cost of the unit i in the time period t is a multi-segment linear function of the unit output.
In this embodiment, the constraint conditions of the objective function of the safety constraint economic dispatch model include system constraints and unit constraints.
In this embodiment, the system constraint is a load balancing constraint, and the load balancing constraint is specifically as follows:
for each time period t, the load balancing constraint may be described as:
Figure BDA0001530565420000052
wherein, Pi,tRepresenting the output of the unit i in the time period t, DtFor system load prediction for period T, TtNet power is sent to the tie for the t period.
In this embodiment, the unit constraints include unit output upper and lower limit constraints and unit climbing constraints;
the unit output upper and lower limits are specifically restricted as follows:
the capacity of the unit should be within its maximum/minimum technical capacity, and its constraint can be described as:
Figure BDA0001530565420000053
the unit climbing restraint is as follows:
when the unit climbs up or down, the requirement of climbing speed is met; the hill climbing constraint can be described as:
Figure BDA0001530565420000054
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0001530565420000055
the maximum upward slope climbing rate of the unit i,
Figure BDA0001530565420000056
the maximum downward climbing rate of the unit i.
In this embodiment, step S3 specifically includes: performing optimization calculation by adopting a simplex method to obtain and store an optimization result; the optimization result is mainly the output of each optimization unit in each time period.
In this embodiment, step S4 is specifically as follows:
optimizing the total output of the unit, namely the output X (1-plant power consumption rate) of all units;
optimized unit total output at t time interval
Figure BDA0001530565420000061
Wherein R isiThe plant power rate of the unit i is obtained;
the net input power of the tie line in the period of T is Tt；
Bus load prediction power summation in t period
Figure BDA0001530565420000062
Wherein b is the bus serial number, NbIs the total number of bus bars, Db,tIs the original bus load prediction of bus b during time t.
In this embodiment, step S5 is specifically as follows: calculating a bus load correction factor
Figure BDA0001530565420000063
The step S6 is specifically as follows:
for each bus b in each time period t, the corrected bus load is predicted to be
Figure BDA0001530565420000064
It should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. A bus load prediction data correction method for power generation plan optimization is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring relevant data of a power generation plan;
s2, establishing a safety constraint economic dispatching model;
s3, performing optimization calculation on the economic dispatching model;
s4, counting and optimizing the total output of the unit, the net input power of a connecting line and the total sum of the original bus load prediction;
s5, calculating a bus load correction factor;
s6, correcting bus load prediction data;
the objective function of the safety constraint economic dispatching model is the minimization of the electricity purchasing cost, and the formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002569119640000011
wherein: n represents the total number of the units; t represents the total number of considered time periods, and assuming 96 time periods are considered in one day, T is 96; pi,tRepresenting the output of the unit i in the time period t; ci,t(Pi,t) The operation cost of the unit i in the time period t is a multi-section linear function of the unit output;
the constraint conditions of the objective function of the safety constraint economic dispatching model comprise system constraint and unit constraint;
the system constraint is a load balancing constraint, and the load balancing constraint is specifically as follows:
for each time period t, the load balancing constraint may be described as:
Figure FDA0002569119640000012
wherein, Pi,tRepresenting the output of the unit i in the time period t, DtFor system load prediction for period T, TtNet power delivery for the tie line for a time period t;
wherein, the step S4 is as follows:
optimizing the total output of the unit, namely the output X (1-plant power consumption rate) of all units;
optimized unit total output at t time interval
Figure FDA0002569119640000013
Wherein R isiThe plant power rate of the unit i is obtained;
the net input power of the tie line in the period of T is Tt；
Bus load prediction power summation in t period
Figure FDA0002569119640000021
Wherein b is the bus serial number, NbIs the total number of bus bars, Db,tPredicting the original bus load of the bus b in a t period;
the step S5 is specifically as follows: calculating a bus load correction factor
Figure FDA0002569119640000022
The step S6 is specifically as follows:
for each bus b in each time period t, the corrected bus load is predicted to be
Figure FDA0002569119640000023
2. The method for modifying bus load prediction data for power generation plan optimization according to claim 1, characterized by: the relevant data of the power generation plan comprises system load prediction, unit operating cost, upper and lower limits of unit output, unit climbing speed and net incoming power of a connecting line.
3. The method for modifying bus load prediction data for power generation plan optimization according to claim 2, characterized in that: the unit constraint comprises unit output upper and lower limit constraint and unit climbing constraint;
the unit output upper and lower limits are specifically restricted as follows:
the capacity of the unit should be within its maximum/minimum technical capacity, and its constraint can be described as:
Figure FDA0002569119640000024
the unit climbing restraint is as follows:
when the unit climbs up or down, the requirement of climbing speed is met; the hill climbing constraint can be described as:
ΔPi D≤Pi,t-Pi,t-1≤ΔPi U(4)
wherein, Δ Pi UFor the unit i maximum climbing rate, Δ Pi DThe maximum downward climbing rate of the unit i.
4. The method of modifying bus load prediction data for power generation plan optimization of claim 3, wherein: the step S3 specifically includes: performing optimization calculation by adopting a simplex method to obtain and store an optimization result; the optimization result is mainly the output of each optimization unit in each time period.
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