CN109948840A - A kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods - Google Patents
A kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods, calculate the history average temporally of the atmospheric self-cleaning ability on each mesh point in the past period in net region；Then pass through the flux divergence of atmospheric self-cleaning ability and air quality on each mesh point in net region when the previous forecast moment at calculating each prediction of air quality moment, and the air quality on each mesh point when the history average of combination atmospheric self-cleaning ability and previous forecast moment in net region, the air quality on each mesh point when calculating each prediction of air quality moment in net region；Obtained prediction of air quality is interpolated on the position of required forecast moment and required pollutant monitoring and forecast website using interpolation technique again；Advantage, which is it, can forecast air quality, such as PM without pollution far stronger data2.5Mass concentration or AQI, calculation amount is small, easy to implement, and forecast accuracy is high.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of weather forecast technologies, more particularly, to a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods.
Background technique
Middle And Eastern China atmosphere pollution is got worse, and haze weather is increasing, shows regional, duration spy
Sign, autumn and winter primary pollutant is mainly PM2.5。PM2.5It is the fine particle of aerodynamic diameter≤2.5 micron in atmosphere
Abbreviation, be one of most important characteristic contamination of atmosphere combined pollution.PM2.5Partial size is small, area is big, activity is strong, it is easily attached
Band poisonous and harmful substances, and residence time in an atmosphere is long, conveying distance is remote, to human health and atmosphere quality
It is affected.Environment Protect in China portion starts to start PM in 74 key cities for 20132.5On-line monitoring, and online real
Shi Fabu monitoring result.
Disposal of pollutants and meteorological condition are to influence two most important factors of atmosphere pollution, the former is internal cause, Hou Zheshi
External cause.It is feasible, but the discharge of urban atmospheric pollution object that applied statistical method, which is directed to the city for having long-term monitoring data,
When the source strength and its spatial and temporal distributions in source change, the effect of statistical fluctuation will be affected.In the past 30 years, urban atmosphere
The research of pollution prediction mode has had been greatly developed.From past statistics specialty, the middle ruler of today is had developed to
The air pollution forecasting system that degree weather forecast mode, contamination mode and photochemical patterns combine.Such as: Canadian state
The MC2-CALGRID modular system of research committee, family, is ruler in the semi-explicit semi-Lagrange by a non-standing balance
The modular system that degree Meteorological Models and a comprehensive photochemical patterns are combined into；The EURAD atmosphere of German Cologne university
Pollution prediction system is made of MM5, EEM contamination mode and CTM2 Chemical Transport mode；The development of meteorological institute, Norway
Forecast NOxAnd O3Photochemical patterns consider the diffusion transport of pollutant, dried wet deposition and 100 changes including 45 species
Learn reaction equation.WRF-Chem mesoscale chemical model includes the transmission of pollutant and diffusion, dried wet deposition, vapor-phase
Reaction, discharge of pollutant sources, photodegradation, aerosol dynamics and aerosol chemistry (including inorganic and Organic aerosol) etc. are learned, in advance
Report the pollution situation of the following atmosphere.Most of atmosphere pollution transmission diffusion model is all inevitably dependent on pollution
The source material in source needs detailed discharge of pollutant sources information, is restricted at present by various factors, these source materials are not met by
Routine work demand.Research shows that: local pollutant source emission is relatively fixed, and atmosphere pollution is mainly by upstream contaminant
Pollutant accumulation caused by conveying and local diffusion conditions are poor causes.China Meterological Science Research Institute uses cell within 1997
It is pre- to establish non-quiet steady more case air pollution concentrations for the meteorological fields that forecasting model and a Mesoscale Meteorology provide
Report and Application in Potential Prediction system CAPPS, the source material for not needing pollution sources can forecast urban air pollution potentiality index
(PPI) and pollution index (API) uncertainty that is had by investigation of pollution sources itself, is overcome to the number of urban air pollution
It is difficult brought by value forecast.
Lot of domestic and international scholar proposes some meteorological elements relevant to air pollution or Meteorological Index, big for reflecting
Influence of the gas diffusion conditions to air quality.The vector sum distribution map that Wu converts the wind of proposition reflects certain region section time sky
The cumulative effect of flow of air can reflect certain region section time atmospheric wind with the average flow field of wind or delay coefficient
To the transmission and diffusivity of pollutant in the horizontal direction；Zhang Leis etc. and king like residence time of the equality by back trajectca-rles
With pollutants emission intensity field, the conveying intensive parameter that can assess the transmission of pollutant advection is devised；Flowering shrubs etc. is basic herein
On, construct transmission Meteorological Index.These researchs can characterize the conveying intensity of pollutant to a certain extent, but cannot be complete
Influence of the full performance real-time pollution concentration in upstream to downstream.Ventilation coefficient has reacted horizontal wind speed and mixing height to atmosphere
The influence of diffusivity, lesser ventilation coefficient are unfavorable for the diffusion of pollutant, and the A value method based on ventilation coefficient can be to sky
Gas endowment of resources carries out comprehensive assessment.A value calculating method based on atmospheric environment capacity, Zhao Shanshan and Zhu Rong (2006) are big
Gas is divulged information on the basis of diffusivity, considers that dry, wet reset procedure to the cleaning action of pollutant in atmosphere, is expanded using advection
Scattered equation simplification obtains atmospheric self-cleaning capacity formula.The pollutant in one region of atmospheric self-cleaning ability major embodiment is in local
The possibility degree of accumulation or air pollution development, and the rate restored after being polluted, but wind vector can not be embodied
Effect, while atmospheric self-cleaning ability and the pollution level on local and periphery are also not related, that is, can not embody pollutant
A possibility that transmission and degree.
Air quality index (Air Quality Index, abbreviation AQI) is the index of quantitative description Air Quality,
Carry out since 2012 in China.The air quality in somewhere future depends on current local air quality, this following ground contamination
The conveying of source emission, the self-purification capacity of atmosphere and upstream contaminant.Under normal circumstances, current local air quality has real-time prison
The variation of measured data, local discharge of pollutant sources is little, and the self-purification capacity of atmosphere has experience formula that can calculate, upstream contaminant
Conveying can be calculated with passing flux divergence.The meaning of flux divergence refers in the unit time something in unit volume
Net flow vector, can be for indicating the substance by the variation tendency under ambient influence, and positive and negative value has respectively indicated the substance
Loss and accumulation, commonly use moisture flux divergence in meteorology to analyze the situation of change of steam, be used to Forecast of Heavy Rain, strong convection
The generation of weather.If it is known that air quality (the PM in current somewhere2.5Mass concentration or AQI), atmosphere from net energy
The situation of change of the conveying of power and upstream contaminant can then calculate accordingly, carry out prediction of air quality.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods, are not necessarily to pollution far stronger data
It can forecast air quality, such as PM2.5Mass concentration or AQI, and forecast accuracy is high.
The technical scheme of the invention to solve the technical problem is: a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods, feature
Be the following steps are included:
Step 1: enabling T0It indicates that air quality rises to give the correct time quarter, enables TmaxIndicate that air quality maximum forecasts the moment；And it selects
The required meteorological numerical forecasting product used；Then it rises to give the correct time according to air quality and carves T0, air quality maximum forecast the moment
TmaxAnd n-1 forecast moment T of meteorological numerical forecasting product1、T2、……、Tn-1, determine all prediction of air quality moment,
Respectively T1、T2、……、Tn-1、Tn, and T0≤T1≤T2≤…≤Tn-1≤Tmax≤Tn；Then it determines a net region, makes
Net region covers all pollutant monitoring and forecast website；Again air quality is risen to give the correct time and carves T0When net region in
The ground level wind field fact of air quality and atmosphere on each mesh point is interpolated into the correspondence net of meteorological numerical forecasting product
On lattice point；Wherein, n is positive integer, and the forecast time interval of n > 2, meteorological numerical forecasting product are less than or equal to 3 hours, empty
Makings amount is PM2.5Mass concentration or AQI；
Step 2: calculating the atmospheric self-cleaning energy on each mesh point in the daily net region in the D days time in the past
Atmospheric self-cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in time past D days is denoted as B by powerd,m,Then it calculates every in net region in the D days time in the past
The average value temporally of atmospheric self-cleaning ability on a mesh point, by the m net in net region in time past D days
The average value temporally of atmospheric self-cleaning ability on lattice point is denoted as Bm,avg,Wherein, D is positive integer, D
∈ [10,90], d are positive integer, and the initial value of d is 1, and 1≤d≤D, m are positive integer, and the initial value of m is 1,1≤m≤M, M table
Show the total number of the mesh point in net region, Bd,mUnit be rice2/ second, Vd,mIndicate the d days in the D days time in the past
The ventilation quantity on m-th of mesh point in net region, Vd,mUnit be rice2/ second, Rd,mIndicate the in the past in D days time
The precipitation rate on m-th of mesh point in d days net regions, Rd,mUnit be meter per second,Bm,avgList
Position is rice2/ the second；
Step 3: being by i-th of prediction of air quality moment definition to be calculated current in all prediction of air quality moment
The current forecast moment, and be the previous forecast moment by (i-1)-th prediction of air quality moment definition；Wherein, i is positive integer, i
Initial value be 1,1≤i≤n, as i=1, the previous forecast moment is that air quality gives the correct time and to carve T0；
Step 4: the atmospheric self-cleaning ability on each mesh point when calculating the previous forecast moment in net region, it will be previous
The atmospheric self-cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point when forecasting the moment in net region is denoted as Bi-1,m,And it is every in net region when calculating the previous forecast moment
The flux divergence of air quality on a mesh point, by the sky on m-th of mesh point in net region when the previous forecast moment
The flux divergence of makings amount is denoted as Ei-1,m,Wherein, Bi-1,mUnit be
Rice2/ second, Vi-1,mIndicate the ventilation quantity on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Vi-1,mUnit be
Rice2/ second, Ri-1,mIndicate the precipitation rate on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Ri-1,mUnit be
Meter per second,For derivation symbol, ui-1,mIndicate the ground level on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
The thing component of wind, vi-1,mIndicate the south of the ground level wind on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
Northern component, ui-1,mAnd vi-1,mUnit be meter per second, Pi-1,mIndicate m-th of net when the previous forecast moment in net region
Air quality on lattice point, xmIndicate the abscissa of m-th of mesh point on net region, ymIndicate the m on net region
The ordinate of a mesh point；
Step 5: the air quality on each mesh point when calculating the current forecast moment in net region will currently be forecast
The air quality on m-th of mesh point when the moment in net region is denoted as Pi,m, Pi,m=Pi-1,m×(2-Ci-1,m)-Ei-1,m×
(Ti-Ti-1)；Wherein, as i=1 season Ci-1,m=1, when 1 season of i >Ti
Indicate current forecast moment, Ti-1Indicate the previous forecast moment；
Step 6: i=i+1 is enabled, then by prediction of air quality to be calculated next in all prediction of air quality moment
Moment pre- gives the correct time as the current forecast moment, and using the previous prediction of air quality moment at current forecast moment as previous
It carves, returns again to step 4 and continue to execute, until all prediction of air quality moment are disposed, execute step 7 later；Wherein, i
"=" in=i+1 is assignment；
Step 7: rising to give the correct time according to air quality and carve T0When net region in each mesh point on air quality and every
The air quality on each mesh point when a prediction of air quality moment in net region, and linear interpolation technique is used, it obtains
Take T0To TmaxBetween either one or two of needed for forecast the moment when net region in each mesh point on air quality；It uses again
Air quality on all mesh points in net region when the required forecast moment is interpolated into sky by bilinear interpolation technique
Between on the position of upper required pollutant monitoring and forecast website.
In the step 2, there are historical summary, time past D days is in history nearest 3 years, with
Air quality, which rises to give the correct time, carves T0First D' days on the basis of at the time of identical and latter D' days, wherein D' is positive integer, D' ∈ [10,
30]；In the case where historical summary is not present, time past D days rises to give the correct time for air quality carves T0First D days.
In the step 2,Wherein,It indicates in the D days time in the past
The mean wind speed in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions,Unit be meter per second, Hd,mTable
Show the height of the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past, Hd,mUnit be
Rice, g are positive integer, and the initial value of g is 1,1≤g≤Gd,m, Gd,mIt indicates in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past
M-th of mesh point on mixed layer in contained layer the number of plies, Gd,m> 1, ad,m,gIndicate the d days in the D days time in the past
G layers of mean wind speed in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in net region, ad,m,gUnit be meter per second, hd,m,g
Indicate g layers of thickness in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past,
hd,m,gUnit be rice.
In the step 4,Wherein,It indicates previous pre- to give the correct time
The mean wind speed in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point when quarter in net region,Unit be meter per second, Hi-1,mIt indicates
The height of the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Hi-1,mUnit be rice, g is positive whole
Number, the initial value of g are 1,1≤g≤Gi-1,m, Gi-1,mIt indicates on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
Mixed layer in contained layer the number of plies, Gi-1,m> 1, ai-1,m,gIndicate m-th of net when the previous forecast moment in net region
The mean wind speed of g layers in mixed layer on lattice point, ai-1,m,gUnit be meter per second, hi-1,m,gWhen indicating the previous forecast moment
G layers of thickness in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in net region, hi-1,m,gUnit be rice.
Compared with the prior art, the advantages of the present invention are as follows:
1) the method for the present invention, which does not need pollution far stronger data, can carry out air quality (PM2.5Mass concentration or AQI)
Forecast, be stranded to overcome the uncertainty that is had as investigation of pollution sources itself to brought by air quality value forecast
Difficulty, avoids pollution far stronger and its when spatial and temporal distributions change makes the value of forecasting be affected.
2) present invention can choose the meteorological numerical model product advantageous with application performance, not need in addition to run one
MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL NUMERICAL MODEL supports；Can be forecast at any time according to current air mass monitoring result, rise call time not by
The influence and limitation of meteorological numerical model.
3) the method for the present invention considers local atmospheric self-cleaning ability and ground level wind field and acts on this to the conveying of pollutant
Two influence air pollution degree principal element, the former include advection diffusion and scavenging effect of the wet deposition to pollutant, and
By embodying current local atmospheric self-cleaning ability compared with history average state, the latter characterizes unit with flux divergence
In time in unit volume air quality net increase or number of dropouts, be effectively guaranteed the accuracy rate of prediction of air quality.
4) requirement of the method for the present invention to pollutant and meteorological data is low, calculation amount is small, easy to implement.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the overall procedure block diagram of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the embodiments of the drawings.
A kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods proposed by the present invention, overall procedure block diagram are as shown in Figure 1 comprising following step
It is rapid:
Step 1: enabling T0It indicates that air quality rises to give the correct time quarter, enables TmaxIndicate that air quality maximum forecasts the moment；And it selects
Required meteorological numerical forecasting product (such as China Meteorological Administration GRAPES, European mid-range forecast center refined net forecast used
ECMWF-fine)；Then it rises to give the correct time according to air quality and carves T0, air quality maximum forecast moment TmaxAnd meteorological numerical forecast
N-1 forecast moment T of product1、T2、……、Tn-1, determine all prediction of air quality moment, respectively T1、 T2、……、
Tn-1、Tn, and T0≤T1≤T2≤…≤Tn-1≤Tmax≤Tn；Then it determines a net region, keeps net region covering all
Pollutant monitoring and forecast website；Again air quality is risen to give the correct time and carves T0When net region in each mesh point on sky
The ground level wind field live (being derived from meteorological department) of makings amount (being derived from environmental protection administration) and atmosphere is interpolated into meteorological numerical forecast
On the correspondence mesh point of product；Wherein, n is positive integer, the forecast time interval of n > 2, meteorological numerical forecasting product be less than or
Equal to 3 hours, air quality PM2.5Mass concentration or AQI.
Step 2: calculating the atmospheric self-cleaning energy on each mesh point in the daily net region in the D days time in the past
Atmospheric self-cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in time past D days is denoted as B by powerd,m,In formulaAt the D of representing over days
In the d days net regions in m-th of mesh point on Atmospheric Transportation ability, in formulaIt represents
The atmosphere cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past；Then the past is calculated
The average value temporally of the atmospheric self-cleaning ability on each mesh point in D days time in net region, when by the past D days
The average value temporally of the atmospheric self-cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point in interior net region is denoted as Bm,avg,Wherein, D is positive integer, and D ∈ [10,90], d are positive integer, and the initial value of d is 1, and 1≤d≤D, m are positive
Integer, the initial value of m are 1, and 1≤m≤M, M indicate the total number of the mesh point in net region, Bd,mUnit be rice2/ the second,
Vd,mIndicate that the ventilation quantity on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past (is derived from meteorological numerical value
Forecast model products), Vd,mUnit be rice2/ second, ventilation quantity are in mixed layer perpendicular to the atmospheric level per unit time on wind direction
Conveying capacity represents the conveying capacity (Liu Wen, 1999) of atmosphere in mixed layer, Rd,mIndicate the d days nets in the D days time in the past
Precipitation rate (being derived from meteorological department) on m-th of mesh point in lattice region, Rd,mUnit be meter per second,Rice,
Bm,avgUnit be rice2/ the second.
In this particular embodiment, in step 2, there are historical summary, time past D days is in history
Nearest 3 years, T was carved to rise to give the correct time with air quality0First D' days on the basis of at the time of identical and latter D' days, wherein D' is positive whole
Number, D' ∈ [10,30]；In the case where historical summary is not present, time past D days rises to give the correct time for air quality carves T0Preceding D
It.
In this particular embodiment, in step 2,Wherein,Indicate the past
The mean wind speed in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in D days time,Unit be
Meter per second, Hd,mIndicate the height of the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past,
Hd,mUnit be rice, g is positive integer, and the initial value of g is 1,1≤g≤Gd,m, Gd,mIndicate the d days in the D days time in the past
The number of plies of the contained layer in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in net region, Gd,m> 1, ad,m,gIndicate the D days time in the past
G layers of mean wind speed in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days interior net regions, ad,m,gUnit be
Meter per second, hd,m,gIndicate the g in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past
The thickness of layer, hd,m,gUnit be rice.
Step 3: being by i-th of prediction of air quality moment definition to be calculated current in all prediction of air quality moment
The current forecast moment, and be the previous forecast moment by (i-1)-th prediction of air quality moment definition；Wherein, i is positive integer, i
Initial value be 1,1≤i≤n, as i=1, the previous forecast moment is that air quality gives the correct time and to carve T0。
Step 4: the atmospheric self-cleaning ability on each mesh point when calculating the previous forecast moment in net region, it will be previous
The atmospheric self-cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point when forecasting the moment in net region is denoted as Bi-1,m,And it is every in net region when calculating the previous forecast moment
The flux divergence of air quality on a mesh point, by the sky on m-th of mesh point in net region when the previous forecast moment
The flux divergence of makings amount is denoted as Ei-1,m,Wherein, Bi-1,mUnit be
Rice2/ second, Vi-1,mIndicate the ventilation quantity on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Vi-1,mUnit be
Rice2/ second, Ri-1,mIndicate the precipitation rate on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Ri-1,mUnit be
Meter per second,For derivation symbol, ui-1,mIndicate the ground level on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
The thing component of wind, vi-1,mIndicate the south of the ground level wind on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
Northern component, ui-1,mAnd vi-1,mUnit be meter per second, Pi-1,mIndicate m-th of net when the previous forecast moment in net region
Air quality on lattice point, xmIndicate the abscissa of m-th of mesh point on net region, ymIndicate the m on net region
The ordinate of a mesh point, Ei-1,mPhysical significance be unit time, air quality (PM in unit volume2.5Mass concentration
Or AQI) net change amount, Ei-1,m< 0 indicates net increase, on the contrary then indicate only reduces.
In this particular embodiment, in step 4,Wherein,Table
The mean wind speed in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point when showing the previous forecast moment in net region,Unit be
Meter per second, Hi-1,mIndicate the height of the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Hi-1,m's
Unit is rice, and g is positive integer, and the initial value of g is 1,1≤g≤Gi-1,m, Gi-1,mIt indicates when the previous forecast moment in net region
M-th of mesh point on mixed layer in contained layer the number of plies, Gi-1,m> 1, ai-1,m,gIndicate grid when the previous forecast moment
G layers of mean wind speed in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in region, ai-1,m,gUnit be meter per second, hi-1,m,gTable
G layers of thickness in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point when showing the previous forecast moment in net region, hi-1,m,gList
Position is rice.
Step 5: the air quality on each mesh point when calculating the current forecast moment in net region will currently be forecast
The air quality on m-th of mesh point when the moment in net region is denoted as Pi,m, Pi,m=Pi-1,m×(2-Ci-1,m)-Ei-1,m×
(Ti-Ti-1)；Wherein, as i=1 season Ci-1,m=1, when 1 season of i >
2-Ci-1,mIndicate that pollutant is locally gathering surplus ratio, 2-Ci-1,m=1- (Ci-1,m- 1), Ci-1,m- 1 indicates that opposite history is average
The additional contribution rate of situation atmospheric self-cleaning ability, TiIndicate current forecast moment, Ti-1Indicate the previous forecast moment.
Step 6: i=i+1 is enabled, then by prediction of air quality to be calculated next in all prediction of air quality moment
Moment pre- gives the correct time as the current forecast moment, and using the previous prediction of air quality moment at current forecast moment as previous
It carves, returns again to step 4 and continue to execute, until all prediction of air quality moment are disposed, execute step 7 later；Wherein, i
"=" in=i+1 is assignment.
Step 7: rising to give the correct time according to air quality and carve T0When net region in each mesh point on air quality and every
The air quality on each mesh point when a prediction of air quality moment in net region, and linear interpolation technique is used, it obtains
Take T0To TmaxBetween either one or two of needed for forecast the moment when net region in each mesh point on air quality；It uses again
Air quality on all mesh points in net region when the required forecast moment is interpolated into sky by bilinear interpolation technique
Between on the position of upper required pollutant monitoring and forecast website.
Dry deposition is related with atmospheric turbulance situation, pollutant chemistry property and land-surface characteristics, due to conventional meteorological observation
In there are no turbulence characteristic measurement, PM2.5Can be suspended in the air for a long time, thus the present invention ignore atmospheric turbulance diffusion and
Dry deposition effect；Effect of the chemical conversion in air pollution processes is more complicated, it has scavenging effect to some pollutants,
But other pollutants may be promoted to generate again simultaneously, need to carry out further investigation, since the pollutant being directed to is unlike NOx、 O3
Deng closely related with photochemical reaction, therefore the present invention does not consider that chemical conversion acts on yet.Present invention primarily contemplates local atmosphere
Self-purification capacity and ground level wind field act on the conveying of pollutant, and wherein atmospheric self-cleaning ability includes that advection diffusion is sunk with wet
The scavenging effect to pollutant is dropped, that is, includes atmospheric vent amount and precipitation rate factor, embodies the pollutant in a region at this
The possibility degree of ground accumulation or air pollution development, and the rate restored after being polluted.By local atmospheric self-cleaning ability
It is compared with history average, is then conducive to the diffusion and reduction of pollutant greater than history average, be less than history average
Then be conducive to the accumulation and increase of pollutant.The present invention calculates the air quality (PM on each mesh point2.5Mass concentration or
AQI flux divergence), physical significance are unit time, air quality (PM in unit volume2.5Mass concentration or AQI)
Net change amount, flux divergence < 0 indicate net increase, on the contrary then only reduces.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods, it is characterised in that the following steps are included:
Step 1: enabling T0It indicates that air quality rises to give the correct time quarter, enables TmaxIndicate that air quality maximum forecasts the moment；And make needed for selecting
Meteorological numerical forecasting product；Then it rises to give the correct time according to air quality and carves T0, air quality maximum forecast moment TmaxAnd it is meteorological
N-1 forecast moment T of numerical forecasting product1、T2、……、Tn-1, determine all prediction of air quality moment, respectively T1、
T2、……、Tn-1、Tn, and T0≤T1≤T2≤…≤Tn-1≤Tmax≤Tn；Then it determines a net region, covers net region
Cover all pollutant monitoring and forecast website；Again air quality is risen to give the correct time and carves T0When net region in each mesh point on
The ground level wind field fact of air quality and atmosphere be interpolated on the correspondence mesh point of meteorological numerical forecasting product；Wherein, n
Forecast time interval for positive integer, n > 2, meteorological numerical forecasting product is less than or equal to 3 hours, air quality PM2.5's
Mass concentration or AQI；
Step 2: the atmospheric self-cleaning ability on each mesh point in the daily net region in the D days time in the past is calculated, it will
The atmospheric self-cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in time past D days is denoted as Bd,m,Then each of net region in the D days time in the past is calculated
The average value temporally of atmospheric self-cleaning ability on mesh point, by m-th of mesh point in net region in time past D days
On the average value temporally of atmospheric self-cleaning ability be denoted as Bm,avg,Wherein, D is positive integer, D ∈ [10,
90], d is positive integer, and the initial value of d is 1, and 1≤d≤D, m are positive integer, and the initial value of m is 1, and 1≤m≤M, M indicate grid regions
The total number of mesh point in domain, Bd,mUnit be rice2/ second, Vd,mIndicate the d days net regions in the D days time in the past
In m-th of mesh point on ventilation quantity, Vd,mUnit be rice2/ second, Rd,mIndicate the d days grids in the D days time in the past
The precipitation rate on m-th of mesh point in region, Rd,mUnit be meter per second,Bm,avgUnit be rice2/ the second；
Step 3: being current by i-th of prediction of air quality moment definition to be calculated current in all prediction of air quality moment
It forecasts the moment, and is the previous forecast moment by (i-1)-th prediction of air quality moment definition；Wherein, i is positive integer, and i's is initial
Value is 1,1≤i≤n, and as i=1, the previous forecast moment rises to give the correct time for air quality carves T0；
Step 4: the atmospheric self-cleaning ability on each mesh point when calculating the previous forecast moment in net region, by previous forecast
The atmospheric self-cleaning ability on m-th of mesh point when the moment in net region is denoted as Bi-1,m,And it is every in net region when calculating the previous forecast moment
The flux divergence of air quality on a mesh point, by the sky on m-th of mesh point in net region when the previous forecast moment
The flux divergence of makings amount is denoted as Ei-1,m,Wherein, Bi-1,mUnit be
Rice2/ second, Vi-1,mIndicate the ventilation quantity on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Vi-1,mUnit be
Rice2/ second, Ri-1,mIndicate the precipitation rate on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region, Ri-1,mUnit be
Meter per second,For derivation symbol, ui-1,mIndicate the ground level on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
The thing component of wind, vi-1,mIndicate the south of the ground level wind on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
Northern component, ui-1,mAnd vi-1,mUnit be meter per second, Pi-1,mIndicate m-th of grid when the previous forecast moment in net region
Air quality on point, xmIndicate the abscissa of m-th of mesh point on net region, ymIndicate m-th of net on net region
The ordinate of lattice point；
Step 5: the air quality on each mesh point when calculating the current forecast moment in net region will currently be forecast the moment
When net region in m-th of mesh point on air quality be denoted as Pi,m, Pi,m=Pi-1,m×(2-Ci-1,m)-Ei-1,m×(Ti-
Ti-1)；Wherein, as i=1 season Ci-1,m=1, when 1 season of i >TiIt indicates
Current forecast moment, Ti-1Indicate the previous forecast moment；
Step 6: i=i+1 is enabled, then by the prediction of air quality moment to be calculated next in all prediction of air quality moment
As the current forecast moment, and using the previous prediction of air quality moment at current forecast moment as the previous forecast moment, then
Return step 4 continues to execute, until all prediction of air quality moment are disposed, executes step 7 later；Wherein, i=i+1
In "=" be assignment；
Step 7: rising to give the correct time according to air quality and carve T0When net region in each mesh point on air quality and each air
The air quality on each mesh point when the Quality Forecasting moment in net region, and linear interpolation technique is used, obtain T0Extremely
TmaxBetween either one or two of needed for forecast the moment when net region in each mesh point on air quality；Bilinearity is used again
Interpositioning, needed for the air quality on all mesh points in net region when the required forecast moment is interpolated into spatially
Pollutant monitoring and forecast website position on.
2. a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods according to claim 1, it is characterised in that in the step 2, exist
In the case where historical summary, time past D days is nearest 3 years in history, carves T to rise to give the correct time with air quality0At the time of identical
On the basis of first D' days and latter D' days, wherein D' is positive integer, D' ∈ [10,30]；In the case where historical summary is not present,
Time past D days rises to give the correct time for air quality carves T0First D days.
3. a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods according to claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that in the step 2,Wherein,Indicate the m in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past
The mean wind speed in mixed layer on a mesh point,Unit be meter per second, Hd,mIndicate the d days in the D days time in the past
Net region in m-th of mesh point on mixed layer height, Hd,mUnit be rice, g is positive integer, and the initial value of g is
1,1≤g≤Gd,m, Gd,mIt indicates in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past
Contained layer the number of plies, Gd,m> 1, ad,m,gIt indicates on m-th of mesh point in the d days net regions in the D days time in the past
Mixed layer in g layers of mean wind speed, ad,m,gUnit be meter per second, hd,m,gIndicate the d days in the D days time in the past
G layers of thickness in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point in net region, hd,m,gUnit be rice.
4. a kind of Urban Air Pollution Methods according to claim 3, it is characterised in that in the step 4,Wherein,Indicate m-th of net when the previous forecast moment in net region
The mean wind speed in mixed layer on lattice point,Unit be meter per second, Hi-1,mIt indicates when the previous forecast moment in net region
M-th of mesh point on mixed layer height, Hi-1,mUnit be rice, g is positive integer, and the initial value of g is 1,1≤g≤
Gi-1,m, Gi-1,mIndicate the layer of the contained layer in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
Number, Gi-1,m> 1, ai-1,m,gIndicate g layers in the mixed layer on m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
Mean wind speed, ai-1,m,gUnit be meter per second, hi-1,m,gIndicate m-th of mesh point when the previous forecast moment in net region
On mixed layer in g layers of thickness, hi-1,m,gUnit be rice.
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