CN109840310B - Comprehensive evaluation method for service life of three-dimensional integrated system-level component for spacecraft - Google Patents
Comprehensive evaluation method for service life of three-dimensional integrated system-level component for spacecraft Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A comprehensive evaluation method for the service life of a three-dimensional integrated system-level component for a spacecraft comprises the following steps: step 1: in consideration of environmental fluctuation and process deviation, acquiring the physical service life of the failure of the mxn three-dimensional integrated system-level components in a sampling manner; step 2: calculating the service life distribution parameters and the hyper-parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly by using the failure physical service life data; and step 3: by utilizing a failure physical evaluation method of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component, combining process deviation and use environment fluctuation and based on a Monte Carlo method, the service life distribution and the prior distribution of distribution parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft can be obtained. And considering the existence of failure data and the absence of failure data, and evaluating the comprehensive service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component by using a Bayesian method. Compared with the traditional reliability prediction method, the method has the advantage that the comprehensive life evaluation result has higher reliability by utilizing the failure physical evaluation method and considering the failure data and the non-failure data.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of a three-dimensional integrated system-level component for a spacecraft, which is suitable for comprehensively evaluating reliability related information such as failure physical evaluation, use data, test data and the like of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft so as to evaluate the service life distribution of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft, is convenient for controlling the risk of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft under the application condition, and belongs to the technical field of service life evaluation of the spacecraft component.
Background
Three-dimensional integrated system level components have begun to be gradually applied in various fields such as aerospace, aviation, weapons and the like due to the technical characteristics of miniaturization, light weight, multifunction and high performance. The three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly mainly comprises a plurality of chips and components with different functions, and is formed by a complex structure and a complex process, so that the use of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly faces a severe use reliability problem.
At present, in the application process of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly for the aircraft, the generated life evaluation related data comprises a series of reliability related data such as failure physical evaluation data, use data, test data and the like. How to comprehensively utilize the data to evaluate the service life result of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft and give a more reliable and reliable result of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft, and the method is a direction with application prospect and a problem to be solved urgently in service life evaluation of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention solves the technical problems that: the invention aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation method for the service life of a three-dimensional integrated system-level component for a spacecraft, which utilizes a failure physical evaluation method of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component and combines a Monte Carlo method to obtain service life distribution and prior distribution of distribution parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a three-dimensional integrated system-level component service life comprehensive evaluation method for a spacecraft comprises the following steps:
step 1: according to the process deviation and the environmental fluctuation of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly, acquiring the physical service life of the m x n three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly in a sampling mode;
and 2, step: calculating service life distribution parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly and hyper-parameters of the distribution parameters by using the failure physical service life data;
and 3, step 3: and evaluating the comprehensive service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component by using a Bayesian method according to the failure data and the non-failure data.
In the step 1, the process deviation and the environmental fluctuation of the three-dimensional integrated system level assembly are considered, normal distribution sampling is carried out on failure physical model parameters corresponding to a failure mechanism causing failure of the three-dimensional integrated system level assembly, m multiplied by n groups of failure physical model parameters are extracted, wherein m is more than 1000, n is more than 10000; evaluating to obtain the physical service life of the m x n three-dimensional integrated system-level components by using a failure physical model;
the specific method for calculating the service life distribution parameters and the hyperparameters of the distribution parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level components in the step 2 is as follows: gamma distribution fitting is carried out on the failure physical life of each n three-dimensional integrated system-level components to obtain m groups of Gamma distribution parameters alpha j And lambda j Further calculating to obtain the parameter lambda of Gamma distribution j The distribution of hyper-parameters α 'and β'.
The Gamma distribution parameter alpha j And lambda j The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
wherein j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to m, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n, t ij The resulting physical life to failure value was sampled.
5. The method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft according to claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the parameter lambda of Gamma distribution is obtained by the calculation j The specific formula of the distributed hyperparameters alpha 'and beta' is as follows:
wherein j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to m, and i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n.
And 3, evaluating the comprehensive service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component by using a Bayesian method.
The specific method for evaluating the comprehensive service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component by using the Bayesian method comprises the following steps: dividing the failure data of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly into a group, and marking the group as t F ＝(t F1 ,t F2 ,…,t Fk ) Dividing the non-failure data of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component into a group, and marking the group as t S ＝(t S1 ,t S2 ,…,t Sl ) And calculating to obtain a posterior distribution pi A posteriori test (lambda) and further to give pi The posterior test Desired lambda of (lambda) E Is composed of
The integrated lifetime probability density function f (t) of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component is then
To obtain a composite lifetime LT of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component
The posterior distribution pi The posterior test The formula for the calculation of (λ) is:
compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that:
the method utilizes a failure physical life evaluation method as prior information distribution of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft, and can consider material information, structure information, process information and use environment information of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft; a large amount of reliability data existing in the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft in the test process and the use process are used as update information of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft, reliability related information of the whole life cycle of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft can be comprehensively considered and effectively utilized, and finally a more credible comprehensive life prediction result of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft is obtained.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is an implementation flow of a method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of a three-dimensional integrated system-level component for a spacecraft.
Detailed Description
The method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft is described in detail below with reference to specific implementation cases.
Case (2): three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly for certain spacecraft
The relevant information and application environment of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly for a certain spacecraft are as follows:
three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly for a spacecraft: the device is composed of an ASIC chip, a FLASH chip and an SRAM chip; the ASIC is mechanically and electrically interconnected with the substrate in a flip-chip welding mode, the FLASH and the SRAM are mechanically interconnected with the substrate through welding materials, and the electrical interconnection is realized through bonding wires. The external package size of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly for the spacecraft is 50mm multiplied by 7mm, and the package type is a quad flat non-lead package (QFN). The information such as the position, the power consumption and the like of each chip is shown in a second table.
The three-dimensional integrated system-level component comprises three chips, namely an ASIC (application specific integrated circuit), a FLASH and an SRAM (static random access memory), wherein each chip has three failure mechanisms, namely Time Dependent Dielectric Breakdown (TDDB), electromigration (EM) of a metallization layer and Hot Carrier Injection (HCI), and the parameter information of a physical model of the chip failure is shown in a third table; the interconnection structure of the ASIC is a micro-bump and only comprises a micro-bump thermal fatigue failure mechanism, the interconnection structures of the FLASH and SRAM chips are provided with a solder layer and a bonding lead, the interconnection structures comprise a bonding lead bending fatigue failure mechanism, and the parameter information of the physical model of the interconnection structure failure is shown in the fourth table; the whole three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly only has one package type of QFN, the failure mechanism of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly comprises package body vibration failure and package body thermal fatigue, and the package body failure physical model parameter information is shown in the fifth table.
The application environment is as follows: the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly for a certain spacecraft is arranged on a PCB board of 200mm multiplied by 350mm multiplied by 4mm, and the positions on the plane are (135, 110); in general, the ambient temperature is stable at around 25 ℃.
Information of each chip of two-dimensional and three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly
| Chip and method for manufacturing the same | ASIC | FLASH | SRAM |
| Length X Width X height (mm) | 9×9×0.4 | 7×5×0.4 | 13.5×11×0.4 |
| Interconnection mode | Flip chip bonding | Bonding wire + solder bond | Bonding wire + solder bond |
| Interconnect material | SnPb | Au-Al+SnPb | Au-Al+SnPb |
| Dissipation power (W) | 1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
Physical model parameters for table three-chip failure
TABLE FOUR INTERCONNECT STRUCTURE FAILURE PHYSICAL MODEL PARAMETERS
TABLE V Package failure physical model parameters
Step 1: by utilizing a failure physical evaluation method, combining the input information, considering the process deviation and the environmental fluctuation of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly, wherein the process deviation influences the electric field intensity and follows normal distribution with the mean value of 5 and the standard deviation of 0.25, the environmental fluctuation is temperature fluctuation, the temperature obeys normal distribution with the mean value of 343.35 and the standard deviation of 0.034335, the failure physical model parameters corresponding to the failure mechanism causing the failure of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly are subjected to normal distribution sampling, 1000 x 10000 groups of failure physical model parameters are extracted in total, and 1000 x 10000 three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly failure physical lives t can be evaluated by utilizing the failure physical model ij For details, see the reference "Life prediction method of system-in-package based on graphics of failure "; in order to ensure a stable sampling result, the sampling data quantity is large, and therefore, the data are not listed one by one.
Step 2: and calculating the service life distribution parameters and the hyper-parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly by using the failure physical service life data. For each 10000 three-dimensional integrated system-level component failure physical life t ij Gamma distribution fitting is carried out to obtain 1000 groups of Gamma distribution parameters alpha j and lambda j, and the calculation formula is as follows
And can calculate the parameter alpha of Gamma distribution as
Calculating hyper-parameters alpha 'and beta' of parameter lambda distribution of Gamma distribution as
And step 3: and considering the failure data and the non-failure data, as shown in the sixth table, the posterior distribution pi posterior (lambda) and the comprehensive service life of the service life distribution parameter lambda of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft can be obtained based on the Bayesian method.
Three-dimensional integrated system-level component life data for six-surface spacecraft
| Numbering | Whether or not it is out of service | Failure/non-failure time (hours) |
| 1 | Is that | 50000 |
| 2 | Whether or not | 200 |
| 3 | Whether or not | 300 |
| 4 | Whether or not | 400 |
| 5 | Is that | 60000 |
| 6 | Whether or not | 200 |
| 7 | Is that | 80000 |
| 8 | Whether or not | 500 |
Wherein the collected failure data is divided into a group denoted as t F = (50000, 60000, 80000), group non-failure data, denoted t S = (200,300,400,200,500), the posterior distribution pi posterior (lambda) is
Then the expected λ E to give a π posteriori (λ) is
The integrated lifetime probability density function f (t) of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft is
Finally, the comprehensive service life LT of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly for the spacecraft can be given as
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that those matters not described in detail in the present specification are well known in the art.
Claims (8)
1. A three-dimensional integrated system-level component service life comprehensive evaluation method for a spacecraft is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: according to the process deviation and the environmental fluctuation of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly, acquiring the physical service life of the m x n three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly in a sampling mode;
step 2: calculating service life distribution parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly and hyper-parameters of the distribution parameters by using the failure physical service life data;
and step 3: and evaluating the comprehensive service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component by using a Bayesian method according to the failure data and the non-failure data.
2. The method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: taking the process deviation and the environmental fluctuation of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly into consideration in the step 1, normally distributing and sampling failure physical model parameters corresponding to a failure mechanism causing failure of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly, and extracting m multiplied by n groups of failure physical model parameters, wherein m is more than 1000, n is more than 10000; evaluating to obtain the physical service life of the m x n three-dimensional integrated system-level components by using a failure physical model;
3. the comprehensive evaluation method for the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft according to claim 1, characterized in that: the specific method for calculating the service life distribution parameters and the hyperparameters of the distribution parameters of the three-dimensional integrated system-level components in the step 2 is as follows: performing Gamma distribution fitting on the physical service life of each n three-dimensional integrated system-level components in failure to obtain m groups of Gamma distribution parameters alpha j And lambda j Further calculating to obtain the parameter lambda of Gamma distribution j Distributed hyperparameters α 'and β'.
4. The method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft according to claim 3, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the Gamma distribution parameter alpha j And lambda j The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
wherein j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to m, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n, t ij The resulting physical life to failure value was sampled.
5. The comprehensive evaluation method for the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft according to claim 4, characterized in that: the parameter lambda of Gamma distribution is obtained by the calculation j The specific formula of the distributed hyper-parameters alpha 'and beta' is as follows:
wherein j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to m, and i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n.
6. The method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft according to claim 5, wherein the method comprises the following steps: and 3, evaluating the comprehensive service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component by using a Bayesian method.
7. According to the claimsSolving 6 the method for comprehensively evaluating the service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component for the spacecraft is characterized by comprising the following steps: the specific method for evaluating the comprehensive service life of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component by using the Bayesian method comprises the following steps: dividing the failure data of the three-dimensional integrated system-level assembly into a group denoted as t F ＝(t F1 ,t F2 ,…,t Fk ) Dividing the non-failure data of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component into a group, and marking the group as t S ＝(t S1 ,t S2 ,…,t Sl ) And calculating to obtain a posterior distribution pi A posteriori test (lambda), and further to give π A posteriori test Desired lambda of (lambda) E Is composed of
The integrated lifetime probability density function f (t) of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component is then
To obtain a composite lifetime LT of the three-dimensional integrated system-level component
8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the posterior distribution pi A posteriori test The formula for the calculation of (λ) is:
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| WO2012157040A1 (en) * | 2011-05-13 | 2012-11-22 | 株式会社日立製作所 | System for predicting spare-parts service life and method for predicting spare-parts service life |
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| CN102651054A (en) * | 2012-04-10 | 2012-08-29 | 北京航空航天大学 | Probability method of electronic product service life model based on Bayesian theory |
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