CN109740195A - A kind of appraisal procedure of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model and design typhoon wind speed based on weather station observation data - Google Patents
A kind of appraisal procedure of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model and design typhoon wind speed based on weather station observation data Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to engineering structure wind force proofing design fields, more particularly, to the appraisal procedure of a kind of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model based on weather station observation data and design typhoon wind speed.The present invention provides a kind of appraisal procedure of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model and design typhoon wind speed that data are observed based on weather station, it solves the problems, such as the true value under the air speed value deviation standard landforms that landforms variation causes actual measurement to obtain, provides reliable basic data to design the assessment of typhoon wind speed；A kind of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model based on weather station observation data is established using cross-domain threshold values method and the distribution of broad sense Pareto, so that limited actual measurement typhoon air speed data is fully utilized；The influence of wind speed and direction correlation and wind series Unsteady characteristics is comprehensively considered, more reasonable accurate design typhoon wind speed can be provided for building wind force proofing design.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to engineering structure wind force proofing design fields, more particularly, to a kind of extreme value based on weather station observation data
Typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model and the appraisal procedure for designing typhoon wind speed.
Background technique
For coastal typhoon hotspot, especially high-rise or tall and slender structure the design of building structure is often by wind load control
System.Therefore, born designed wind load is built to wind force proofing design level is improved in accurate evaluation typhoon zone, ensures that structure has safely
There is important meaning.And designed wind load is directly related with the building design wind speed of location.Load code regulation in China's is empty
Meeting within 50 years one under spacious B class landforms at 10m height 10 minutes average maximum wind velocities is Basic Design wind speed.To important building knot
Its return period of structure is 100 years desirable.It can be seen that rationally the design typhoon wind speed of assessment typhoon zone building is structures under wind safety
Important foundation.There are many appraisal procedures of design wind speed, wherein a kind of common means are based on local weather station measured data
The evaluation of information progress typhoon Maximum wind speed probabilistic model.But from the point of view of existing research experience, this method at present there are still
The deficiency of following aspect: 1) air speed data that weather station is surveyed does not consider the influence of landforms variation usually, however as city
City is fast-developing, and weather station periphery landforms often have earth-shaking variation at the beginning of setting up with weather station, is no longer rule already
Otherwise model required standard landforms obtain so obtained air speed data should be modified to obtain the value under standard landforms
Air speed data will likely be less than normal.2) when carrying out the probability analysis of normality wind Maximum wind speed, traditional generalized extreme value method is adopted
Maximum wind speed probability distribution statistical is carried out with maximum value data year by year, it is therefore desirable to which there are a large amount of data just can obtain reliably
As a result.However, it is this for typhoon with noncontinuity (certain years may not occur) and measured data amount it is extremely limited point
Object is analysed, analysis is carried out using traditional generalized extreme value method and is difficult to obtain reasonable result.3) it calculated in the past logical when design wind speed
Often think that wind speed is the random process of stable state without considering since Climate and Environment Variation may cause the Unsteady characteristics of wind speed.For
On the one hand solution problem above needs to obtain typhoon air speed data as accurate as possible, on the other hand need to introduce new general
Rate distributed model is to make full use of existing typhoon data to construct reasonable Maximum wind speed probabilistic model.Therefore, in order to filling
Divide to obtain using weather station real measured data and rationally reliably design typhoon wind speed, needs to establish a kind of new appraisal procedure system.
Summary of the invention
The first purpose of this invention is, establishes a kind of extreme value typhoon wind speed probability point based on weather station observation data
Cloth model.
For this purpose, above-mentioned purpose of the invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model based on weather station observation data, it is described that number is observed based on weather station
According to extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model pass through following steps establish:
(1) collection and screening of weather station air speed data
The weather station of engineering project location near zone is chosen, as much as possible to increase the original typhoon for analysis
Data volume；It filters out using weather station as all history typhoon track information passed through within the scope of the radius 250km of center, mainly includes
Time and longitude and latitude positional information of the typhoon by the region；From the 10m height recorded by condition from weather station using the information
The maximum wind velocity that weather station measures under corresponding all previous typhoon influence is found in daily 10 minutes average maximum wind velocity data, by the wind
Speed acts on the initial data of the extreme value typhoon wind speed of lower this area as each typhoon, and will be different near engineering project location
Wind speed between weather station carries out mutually fusion to form original typhoon air speed data collection；The principle of data fusion is for same
The air speed data that different weather stations obtain under typhoon effect takes its maximum value, without the different weather station wind speed under the effect of same typhoon
Data are then added directly into raw data set；
(2) amendment of the original typhoon air speed data in weather station
The influence for landforms variation is needed to be corrected after obtaining the original typhoon air speed data in weather station accordingly, i.e.,
It is the respective value being adapted to all air speed datas under standard landforms；Original typhoon wind is carried out referring in particular to following formula (1)
The amendment of speed:
In formula: VoFor the original typhoon air speed data that step (1) obtains, corresponding is that 10 minutes at 10m height are put down
Equal wind speed, VcTo consider that landforms change revised typhoon air speed data, z0For earth's surface roughness length, Ground coefficientk kTIt can be by
It is calculated according to formula (2):
kT=0.19 (z0/0.05)0.07 (2)
Earth's surface roughness length z0It can indicate again are as follows:
In formula: empirical parameter A and B can be taken as 1.08 and 2.32 respectively；Z is the computed altitude of wind speed, generally be can be taken as
10m；G3sFor gust wind factor, can indicate are as follows:
G3s=V3s/V10min (4)
In formula: V3sFor 3 seconds gustinesses, V10minFor 10 minutes mean wind speeds；
It is determining gust wind factor G in the key of above-mentioned calculating process3s, value can determine in accordance with the following methods: (1) by gas
The ratio of 3 seconds gustinesses and 10 minutes mean wind speeds under the same wind angle obtained as station record obtains under corresponding wind direction
Gust wind factor；(2) the typhoon wind speed direction of record is needed to be divided into several wind direction sections, the battle array that will be calculated according to analysis
Wind factor is sorted out according to the wind direction section of division, to increase data sample amount；(3) to the fitful wind in different wind direction sections because
Son carries out average earth's surface roughness length value of the average statistics to calculate the wind direction section；After obtaining gust wind factor, successively basis
Formula (1)-(3) calculate the consideration revised air speed data of landforms under different typhoon wind directions section；When measured data amount very
When limited, the influence of wind direction can not be considered, together by all data fusions；
(3) riding Quality Analysis of typhoon air speed data
To revised typhoon air speed data VcTime trend analysis is carried out, statistic S is defined are as follows:
In formula: VcjAnd VciRespectively air speed data column VcIn i-th and j element, n be air speed data VcLength, sgn are
Sign function:
As n >=10, S Normal Distribution, mean value 0, variance are as follows: Var (S)=n (n-1) (2n+5)/18；Standard
Change inspection parameter ZmkIt indicates are as follows:
Work as parameter | Zmk| > Z1-α/2When, then show that wind series have apparent increase or reduce trend, i.e. wind speed sequence
Column have non-stationary, otherwise show wind series without visible trend, can be used as stationary process and carry out subsequent analysis, in which:
Z1-α/2For the corresponding quantile of outcross probability α in standardized normal distribution；
(4) determination of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter
Consider that landforms change revised typhoon air speed data V obtainingcOn the basis of, using cross-domain threshold method to its into
Row screening is to obtain the data for extreme value Probability Analysis；Its basic process is as follows: choosing a reasonable threshold values U, makes
Obtain air speed data VcIn surmount the number of threshold values U and meet Poisson distribution process, reservation air speed data as much as possible at the same time,
Here air speed data is by considering that landforms change revised typhoon air speed data V in step (2)c；After determining threshold values U,
Take VcIn be more than the threshold values basic data of the wind speed as extreme value Probability Analysis；It is distributed and is carried out using the Pareto of broad sense
The description of typhoon Maximum wind speed probabilistic model；Whether the air speed data judged according to step (3) is steady, and specific formula again can be with
It indicates are as follows:
(a) the extreme value probabilistic model of steady wind speed:
(b) the extreme value probabilistic model of non-stationary wind speed:
In formula: X indicates that wind speed sample, a are form parameter, and c is scale parameter, and t is time (unit are as follows: year), and f (θ) is θ
The average originating rate of typhoon under wind angle when can not consider wind direction correlation when measured data is limited, takes f (θ)=1；α0、α1
And β0、β1Respectively undetermined parameter can be fitted to obtain in conjunction with actual measurement air speed data by maximum-likelihood method.
Second object of the present invention is, provides a kind of design typhoon wind speed assessment side based on weather station observation data
Method provides accurate basic equivalent wind action for the wind damage resisting design of coastal typhoon zone building structure.
For this purpose, above-mentioned purpose of the invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of design typhoon wind speed appraisal procedure based on weather station observation data, it is described that data are observed based on weather station
Typhoon wind speed appraisal procedure is designed based on the mentioned-above extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter mould based on weather station observation data
Type, and include the following steps:
(5) assessment of typhoon wind speed is designed under different reoccurrence
After obtaining extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter, the design typhoon wind speed under corresponding different reoccurrence can be calculated；
Whether steady according to typhoon wind series, specific calculation formula difference is as follows:
(a) steady wind series:
VR,θ=-a (1- [f (θ) λ R]c)/c+U (10)
(b) non-stationary wind series:
VR,θ(t)=- a (t) (1- [f (θ) λ (t) R]c)/c+U(t) (11)
In formula: VR,θFor the design wind speed of R return period under the corresponding θ wind angle of steady wind series, λ surpasses for annual
The more probability of threshold values；VR,θ(t) the θ wind direction to be obtained under the random wind series of non-stationary based on t Maximum wind speed probability distribution
R return period design wind speed under angle, λ (t) are that t surmounts threshold values probability.
The present invention provides a kind of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model and design typhoon based on weather station observation data
The appraisal procedure of wind speed, has the advantages that
(1) it solves the problems, such as the true value under the air speed value deviation standard landforms that landforms variation causes actual measurement to obtain, is
The assessment of design typhoon wind speed provides reliable basic data.
(2) it uses cross-domain threshold values method and the distribution of broad sense Pareto establishes a kind of pole based on weather station observation data
It is worth typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model, so that limited actual measurement typhoon air speed data is fully utilized.
(3) comprehensively considered the influence of wind speed and direction correlation and wind series Unsteady characteristics, it can be anti-for building
Wind design provides more reasonable accurate design typhoon wind speed.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the signal in typhoon data screening region.
Fig. 2 is wind speed subregion schematic diagram.
Fig. 3 is different wind speed subregion earth's surface roughness length calculated results.
Fig. 4 is that the typhoon air speed data that landforms influence before and after amendment compares.
Fig. 5 is extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter compared with fitting result.
Fig. 6 is that typhoon wind speed is designed under different reoccurrence.
Specific embodiment
It elaborates below in conjunction with attached drawing to the embodiment of the present invention.The present embodiment is using technical solution of the present invention as base
It is unfolded under plinth, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to following embodiments.
The present embodiment chooses the assessment that a certain weather station in Ningbo City carries out this area's design typhoon wind speed.Due to the meteorology
Station is located in Ningbo City, and periphery is available without other weather station data, therefore analytic process is only carried out based on the weather station data.
According to the method for the present invention, the specific appraisal procedure of weather station region design typhoon wind speed is as follows:
There have been all historical wind speed data information since record in step 1) collection weather station, average including daily 10min
Maximum wind velocity and wind direction, 3s gustiness and wind direction.Centered on weather station, 250km is that radius draws out the platform for being included in statistics
Wind passage zone, as shown in Figure 1.It is found out according to CMA-STI tropical cyclone of northwestern Pacific Ocean optimal path data set and is passed through in history
At the time of all typhoons crossed in the statistics border circular areas and search out the 10m height that weather station corresponding to the moment observes
Locate 10min maximum mean wind speed.Each typhoon is found from the air speed data screened acts on the most strong wind that lower weather station measures
Speed is used as original extreme value typhoon air speed data.
Step 2) divides 4 predominant wind sections, as shown in Figure 2 according to the typhoon wind speed direction observed.Using meteorology
3 seconds gustinesses and 10 minutes mean wind speeds under the same wind angle that station is recorded, calculate corresponding wind direction according to formula (4)
Under gust wind factor, by different wind direction sections gust wind factor carry out mean deviation substitute into formula (3) to obtain different wind direction areas
Between earth's surface roughness length changing rule year by year.Due to the gustiness shortage of data of the weather station before 1991, examine simultaneously
Urban construction and development is slow before considering the nineties, therefore landforms roughness length Z before being approximately considered 91 years0It is linear slowly to increase
Variation tendency.Fig. 3 gives the roughness length changing rule of landforms year by year that 4 wind direction interval computations obtain.Due to weather station
Position carried out resettlement before and after 2008, and old place looks roughness length data are jumped at the moment.It is coarse to calculate landforms
After length, successively according to the available revised typhoon air speed data V of formula (2) and (1)c.Before Fig. 4 depicts landforms amendment
Typhoon air speed data afterwards compares, and is substantially higher by the visible revised wind speed of the figure in original record wind speed, therefore directly adopt
With initial data be designed wind speed analysis would potentially result in calculate result it is less than normal.
Step 3) is to revised air speed data VcRiding Quality Analysis is unfolded.Parameter is calculated according to formula (5)~(7) |
Zmk|=0.20 < Z1-0.05/2=1.96, it can be seen that apparent variation tendency is not present in revised air speed data, can recognize
It is stationary process for the data.
Step 4) is for stationary process, using formula (8) come the probability distribution of calculation of wind speed extreme value.It chooses first reasonable
Threshold values wind velocity U, selection gist are so that the probability that wind speed surmounts threshold values meets guarantor as much as possible under the premise of Poisson distribution
Stay available data for analyzing.To air speed data V in this present embodimentcAfter carrying out repeatedly ratio choosing, threshold values U=9.5m/ is determined
s.By VcThe value for surmounting U in data substitutes into formula (8) and is fitted to obtain form parameter a=6.37 and scale using maximum-likelihood method
Parameter c=0.29.Air speed data due to the present embodiment for analysis is extremely limited, therefore does not consider that the correlation of wind speed and direction is asked
Topic, takes f (θ)=1.The probability distribution of actual measurement typhoon extreme wind velocity is compared with the fitting result of formula (8) as shown in figure 5, by scheming
It can be seen that both meet preferable, show that the model in formula (8) can reasonably reflect the probability distribution of typhoon extreme wind velocity.
Step 5) counts the design wind speed under different reoccurrence using formula (10) for steady wind series.It can by Fig. 6
It is preferable to see under different reoccurrence that the calculated result for surveying return period and formula (10) that wind speed is analyzed meets.
Above-mentioned specific embodiment is used to illustrate the present invention, is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention, rather than to this
Invention is limited, and within the spirit of the invention and the scope of protection of the claims, to any modification of the invention made, is equal
Replacement, improvement etc., both fall within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model based on weather station observation data, which is characterized in that described to be based on gas
As the extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter model of station observation data is established by following steps:
(1) collection and screening of weather station air speed data
The weather station of engineering project location near zone is chosen, as much as possible to increase the original typhoon data for analysis
Amount；It filters out using weather station as all history typhoon track information passed through within the scope of the radius 250km of center, mainly includes typhoon
Time and longitude and latitude positional information by the region；It is daily from the 10m height recorded by condition from weather station using the information
The maximum wind velocity that weather station measures under corresponding all previous typhoon influence is found in 10 minutes average maximum wind velocity data, which is made
The initial data of the extreme value typhoon wind speed of lower this area is acted on for each typhoon, and will be different meteorological near engineering project location
Wind speed between standing carries out mutually fusion to form original typhoon air speed data collection；The principle of data fusion is for the same typhoon
The air speed data that different weather stations obtain under effect takes its maximum value, without the different weather station air speed datas under the effect of same typhoon
Then it is added directly into raw data set；
(2) amendment of the original typhoon air speed data in weather station
Needed after obtaining the original typhoon air speed data in weather station for landforms variation influence corrected accordingly, be by
All air speed datas are adapted to the respective value under standard landforms；Original typhoon wind speed is carried out referring in particular to following formula (1)
Amendment:
In formula: VoFor the original typhoon air speed data that step (1) obtains, corresponding is 10 minutes average winds at 10m height
Speed, VcTo consider that landforms change revised typhoon air speed data, z0For earth's surface roughness length, Ground coefficientk kTIt can be according to public affairs
Formula (2) calculates:
kT=0.19 (z0/0.05)0.07 (2)
Earth's surface roughness length z0It can indicate again are as follows:
In formula: empirical parameter A and B can be taken as 1.08 and 2.32 respectively；Z is the computed altitude of wind speed, generally can be taken as 10m；
G3sFor gust wind factor, can indicate are as follows:
G3s=V3s/V10min (4)
In formula: V3sFor 3 seconds gustinesses, V10minFor 10 minutes mean wind speeds；
It is determining gust wind factor G in the key of above-mentioned calculating process3s, value can determine in accordance with the following methods: (1) by weather station
The ratio for recording 3 seconds gustinesses and 10 minutes mean wind speeds under obtained same wind angle obtains the fitful wind under corresponding wind direction
The factor；(2) the typhoon wind speed direction of record is needed to be divided into several wind direction sections according to analysis, by the fitful wind calculated because
Son is sorted out according to the wind direction section of division, to increase data sample amount；(3) to the gust wind factor in different wind direction sections into
Average earth's surface roughness length value of the row average statistics to calculate the wind direction section；After obtaining gust wind factor, successively according to formula
(1)-(3) calculate the consideration revised air speed data of landforms under different typhoon wind directions section；When measured data amount is extremely limited
When, it can not consider the influence of wind direction, together by all data fusions；
(3) riding Quality Analysis of typhoon air speed data
To revised typhoon air speed data VcTime trend analysis is carried out, statistic S is defined are as follows:
In formula: VcjAnd VciRespectively air speed data column VcIn i-th and j element, n be air speed data VcLength, sgn are symbol
Function:
As n >=10, S Normal Distribution, mean value 0, variance are as follows: Var (S)=n (n-1) (2n+5)/18；Standardization inspection
Test parameter ZmkIt indicates are as follows:
Work as parameter | Zmk| > Z1-α/2When, then show that wind series have apparent increase or reduce trend, i.e. wind series have
Have non-stationary, otherwise shows wind series without visible trend, can be used as stationary process and carry out subsequent analysis, in which: Z1-α/2For
The corresponding quantile of outcross probability α in standardized normal distribution；
(4) determination of extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter
Consider that landforms change revised typhoon air speed data V obtainingcOn the basis of, it is sieved using cross-domain threshold method
Choosing is to obtain the data for extreme value Probability Analysis；Its basic process is as follows: a reasonable threshold values U is chosen, so that wind
Fast data VcIn surmount the number of threshold values U and meet Poisson distribution process, reservation air speed data as much as possible at the same time；It determines
After threshold values U, V is takencIn be more than the threshold values basic data of the wind speed as extreme value Probability Analysis；Using the Pareto of broad sense
Distribution carries out the description of typhoon Maximum wind speed probabilistic model；Whether the air speed data judged according to step (3) is steady, specific public
Formula can indicate again are as follows:
(a) the extreme value probabilistic model of steady wind speed:
(b) the extreme value probabilistic model of non-stationary wind speed:
In formula: X indicates that wind speed sample, a are form parameter, and c is scale parameter, and t is time (unit are as follows: year), and f (θ) is θ wind direction
The average originating rate of typhoon under angle when can not consider wind direction correlation when measured data is limited, takes f (θ)=1；α0、α1And β0、
β1Respectively undetermined parameter can be fitted to obtain in conjunction with actual measurement air speed data by maximum-likelihood method.
2. a kind of design typhoon wind speed appraisal procedure based on weather station observation data, which is characterized in that described to be based on weather station
The design typhoon wind speed appraisal procedure of data is observed based on the extreme value typhoon described in claim 1 based on weather station observation data
Wind velocity distributing paremeter model, and include the following steps:
(5) assessment of typhoon wind speed is designed under different reoccurrence
After obtaining extreme value typhoon wind velocity distributing paremeter, the design typhoon wind speed under corresponding different reoccurrence can be calculated；According to
Whether typhoon wind series are steady, and specific calculation formula difference is as follows:
(a) steady wind series:
VR,θ=-a (1- [f (θ) λ R]c)/c+U (10)
(b) non-stationary wind series:
VR,θ(t)=- a (t) (1- [f (θ) λ (t) R]c)/c+U(t) (11)
In formula: VR,θFor the design wind speed of R return period under the corresponding θ wind angle of steady wind series, λ is that annual surmounts valve
The probability of value；VR,θ(t) under the θ wind angle that is obtained based on t Maximum wind speed probability distribution under the random wind series of non-stationary
R return period design wind speed, λ (t) are that t surmounts threshold values probability.
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| CN111079808A (en) * | 2019-12-05 | 2020-04-28 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Method and system for rapidly predicting gust based on weather typing |
| CN111104738A (en) * | 2019-12-16 | 2020-05-05 | 中国建筑科学研究院有限公司 | Method for calculating basic wind speed of building envelope |
| CN111159803A (en) * | 2019-12-16 | 2020-05-15 | 中国建筑科学研究院有限公司 | Calculation method for wind pressure design value of enclosure structure |
| CN111352174A (en) * | 2020-03-20 | 2020-06-30 | 山东省气象科学研究所 | Product optimization method based on numerical weather forecast and lattice point objective forecast |
| CN111833011A (en) * | 2020-06-18 | 2020-10-27 | 福建省气象科学研究所 | Wind resistance assessment method and device applied to engineering construction |
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