CN109726464A - A Method for Sensitivity Analysis and Construction of Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Flow-thermal Coupling Model of Earth-rock Dam - Google Patents
A Method for Sensitivity Analysis and Construction of Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Flow-thermal Coupling Model of Earth-rock Dam Download PDFInfo
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- 239000011435 rock Substances 0.000 title claims abstract description 36
- 238000010168 coupling process Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 30
- 230000008878 coupling Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 28
- 238000005859 coupling reaction Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 28
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 18
- 238000010206 sensitivity analysis Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 15
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 13
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 31
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 27
- 238000012546 transfer Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 12
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims abstract 5
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 72
- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 claims description 66
- 239000013598 vector Substances 0.000 claims description 40
- 229920006395 saturated elastomer Polymers 0.000 claims description 23
- 239000006185 dispersion Substances 0.000 claims description 10
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- 235000008434 ginseng Nutrition 0.000 description 5
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- 238000005266 casting Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法，具体为：构建土石坝饱和‑非饱和流热耦合模型并设置边界条件，模型包括建立流动方程以及建立土石坝热量运移模型，边界条件包括对渗流场设置边界条件以及温度场设置边界条件；再确定土石坝饱和‑非饱和流热耦合模型的参数，选定其参数的范围，然后对选定的流热耦合模型参数范围进行样本抽样，将抽样得到的样本参数组分别代入构建的模型中进行计算，求出土石坝模型中各监测点温度输出值的均值与方差。本发明一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法，通过构建土石坝饱和‑非饱和流热耦合模型，对土石坝内部渗流场与温度场进行表达，得到影响模型温度输出的主要和次要影响因子。
The invention discloses a method for parameter sensitivity analysis and construction of a flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam, specifically: constructing a saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam and setting boundary conditions. The model includes establishing a flow equation and establishing an earth-rock dam heat transfer model. The model, the boundary conditions include setting boundary conditions for the seepage field and setting boundary conditions for the temperature field; then determine the parameters of the saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of the earth-rock dam, select the range of its parameters, and then set the parameters of the selected flow-heat coupling model. The sample parameter group obtained by sampling is substituted into the constructed model for calculation, and the mean and variance of the temperature output values of each monitoring point in the earth-rock dam model are obtained. The present invention is a method for analyzing and constructing parameter sensitivity of a flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam. By constructing a saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam, the internal seepage field and temperature field of the earth-rock dam are expressed, and the main parameters affecting the temperature output of the model are obtained. Secondary impact factor.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to hydraulic engineering technical fields, are related to a kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters analysis structure
Construction method.
Background technique
The earth and rockfill dam dam foundation of normal operation phase and dam body temperature field are mainly influenced by seepage flow condition, in Rock And Soil medium
Water Transport controls the distribution in temperature field, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristic energy inverting characteristics of seepage field in temperature field.Therefore, native stone is studied
The coupling in dam temperature field and seepage field, can be to provide reason by thermo parameters method profile feedback dam body Seepage Safety condition
By basis.With the development of the hot monitoring technology of earth-rock dam seepage, seepage field is fed back by temperature field and seepage failure point has become
For current popular one of engineer application technology.If only analyzing the single game distribution in earth-rock dam seepage field or temperature field, and ignore
Two couplings are not consistent with Practical Project.Based on this, many scholars establish reflection earth and rockfill dam temperature field and seepage flow
The computation model of field coupling.However, often parameter is numerous for these models, and it is related to complex nonlinear dynamic process.Model parameter
A variety of uncertain factors such as scale diversification and foozle will lead to model prediction uncertainty.Therefore, analysis model
Parameter uncertainty and sensibility can effectively study parameter to the effect of model output variable, parameter and interaction among parameters pair
Model result influences.The principal element for determining change of temperature field is found out in influence by each influence factor of quantitative study to model,
Main attention can be thus concentrated to improve the accuracy of observation of these major influence factors, even if less consideration or to ignore those secondary
Factor, also available analog result and the close numerical model of actual phenomenon.
It is widely applied currently, susceptibility process suffers from many fields.However, having for dam temperature field
Research mostly be by Sensitivity Analysis be applied to casting of concrete in mass temperature stress control research, and for operation
Phase by the earth and rockfill dam temperature field of seepage effect, equally can inquire into its main affecting factors, but relevant sensitivity using this method
Property analysis construction method have not been reported.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters to analyze construction method, passes through structure
Earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model is built, earth and rockfill dam inside seepage field is expressed with temperature field, obtains influencing mould
The main and minor effect factor of type temperature output.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is that a kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters analyze building side
Method is specifically implemented according to the following steps:
Step 1: building earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including establish flow equation and establish native stone
Dam thermal transport model, for describing the relationship of seepage field and temperature field inside earth and rockfill dam；
Step 2: boundary condition being arranged to earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including side is arranged to seepage field
Boundary condition is arranged in boundary's condition and temperature field；
Step 3: determining the parameter of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, select the range of its parameter；
Step 4: sample sampling is carried out to selected stream strategy model parameter range；
Step 5: the sample parameter group that sampling obtains is substituted into the earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy mould of building respectively
It is calculated in type；
Step 6: according to the calculated result of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, finding out each in earth and rockfill dam model
The mean value and variance of monitoring point temperature value output.
It is of the invention to be further characterized in that,
The flow equation established in step 1 is specially earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones Transient Flow field, using the side Richards
Journey is described:
In formula: ρwFor the density of water, CmFor soil body moisture capacity, g is acceleration of gravity, SeFor soil body relative saturation degree, SsFor
Elastic water storage rate,For Laplace operator, θ is soil moisture content, KsHydraulic conductivity, K are saturated for the soil bodyr(θ) is that dam body is non-
For the saturated zone soil body with respect to hydraulic conductivity, μ (T) is the dynamic viscosity of water, is the function of temperature, μ (T)=0.00002414 × 10(247.8/(T+133.16)), p is pressure, and z is to calculate point position elevation, QmFor seepage field source sink term, T is temperature.
Soil moisture content θ in step 1 specifically:
θ=θr+Se(θs-θr) (2)；
Wherein, θrFor residual water content, θsFor saturated aqueous rate,α is that water characteristic is bent
The inverse of line air-entry value, hpFor pressure head, nvFor the instruction parameter of the water characteristic curve gradient, pass through fitting soil mass water dtex
Sign curve obtains, and m is model parameter, m=1-1/nv。
Soil body moisture capacity C in step 1mSpecifically:
The dam body unsaturation band soil body in step 1 is with respect to hydraulic conductivity Kr(θ) specifically:
Earth and rockfill dam thermal transport model in step 1 is described using thermal convection heat transfer equation, specifically:
In formula: ρeqFor equivalent density, ceqFor equivalent specific heat appearance, T is temperature, and t is time, λeqFor Equivalent Thermal Conductivities, cw
For the specific heat capacity of water, DHFor hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient, u is the mean flow rate of water, QsFor temperature field source sink term.
Hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient D in formula (6)HSpecifically:
DH=αT|v|δij+(αL-αT)vivj|v| (7)
In formula, αTFor level dispersivity, αLFor vertical dispersivity, viFor the direction i velocity vector, δijFor Krieger constant, when
It is 1 when i=j, is otherwise 0；| v | it is the size of velocity vector；
Equivalent density ρeqSpecifically:
ρeq=(1-n) ρs+θρw+(n-θ)ρg (8)
Equivalent specific heat holds ceqSpecifically:
ceq=(1-n) cs+θcw+(n-θ)cg (9)
Wherein, cwFor the specific heat capacity of water, ρwFor the density of water, csFor the specific heat capacity of the dam body soil body, ρsFor the close of the dam body soil body
Degree, cgFor the specific heat capacity of air, ρgFor the density of air, n is the porosity of the dam body soil body, when in a saturated state, θ=n,
Equation (6) is exactly saturated aqueous layer convective heat transfer equation.
Step 2 specifically:
Boundary condition is arranged to seepage field: upstream dam body is to determine head boundary, head 13.2m, and dam facing head is buried by it
It changes linearly deeply；Downstream is anhydrous, and downstream boundary is to determine head boundary, head 0m；Other boundaries are zero flux boundary；
Boundary condition is arranged to temperature field:
The library water surface is chosen with lower boundary by the variation of library water temperature year, are as follows:
In formula, y be reservoir level elevation, unit m,For month；
Dam body bottom boundary is adiabatic boundary；
The library water surface is contacted with coboundary with atmosphere, has seasonal fluctuations, daily means temperature value, here using locality
Temperature scatterplot data, is fitted by following formula:
In formula, T0For average temperature of the whole year, l is the order of Fourier space, l=1,2 ..., γ, AlAnd BlFor Fourier space
Coefficient, L is the period；
It is 0m that seepage field primary condition, which is assumed to be pressure head, and temperature field assumes that initial temperature is average temperature of the whole year.
Earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter is determined in step 3 are as follows: hydraulic conductivity Ks, saturated aqueous rate θs, remaining aqueous
Rate θr, the dam body soil body density ps, the dam body soil body specific heat capacity cs, the dam body soil body porosity n and Equivalent Thermal Conductivities λeq, so
Afterwards according to earth and rockfill dam relevant design specification and selected actual engineering design data, the range of above-mentioned 7 parameters is determined.
Step 4 specifically:
Step 4.1,7 parameters selected according to step 3, if model output function y=f (x1,x2…,xk), containing k ginseng
The variation range of each parameter is mapped to section [0,1], and have preset in conjunction with the probability distribution that each parameter is obeyed by number, k=7
Horizontal p=k+1 sample for its discretization, makes each parameter can only be fromMiddle value,
Allowing k parameter, random sampling is primary all on p sample point, and the vector of acquisition is expressed as X=(x1,x2,…,xk)；
Step 4.2, from multiple vector X=(x1,x2,…,xk) in randomly select vector as input parameter " base value "
Vector is denoted as:Then from vectorIt sets out progress 8 times and samples, sample every time
It is all rightIn one or several parameters apply the variable quantity of Δ, make the obtained vector of samplingIn all only have 1 parameter that Δ occurs per adjacent 2 vectors variable quantity,
And it allows this k parameter to change this k+1 adjacent vector once sampled in turn and is referred to as a track.
Step 5 specifically:
Step 5.1, the monitoring point of monitoring temperature output valve is set in earth and rockfill dam model；
Step 5.2, the parameter group that sampling obtains successively is substituted into earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model and is calculated；
Step 5.3, it arranges each parameter group and each monitoring point temperature value output, and list is calculated.
Step 6 specifically:
Step 6.1, each monitoring point temperature value output is calculated according to arrangement, calculates each monitoring point model and calculates output
Temperature mean value and variance, and list；
Step 6.2, obtained mean value and variance are taken absolute value, draws scatter plot, obtain influencing model temperature output
The main and minor effect factor.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
(1) the earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model that the present invention constructs can more accurately reflect the hot shape of stream locating for earth and rockfill dam
State is the process for considering dam body internal temperature field Yu seepage flow field interactions first；Followed by consider periodical environment temperature
The influence of variation belongs to close coupling process.
(2) output of earth and rockfill dam internal temperature field influences have certain changing rule between monitoring location: from dam body
To dam foundation vertical direction, the influence of parameters versus temperature value is presented to increase dam crest before and after trip to dam body downstream horizontal direction and cut-pff wall
Trend, when each parameter influences the output of model temperature value and the trend of increase is also presented in the interaction size of other parameters.
Specific embodiment
The following describes the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
A kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters of the present invention analyze construction method, specifically real according to the following steps
It applies:
Step 1: building earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including establish flow equation and establish native stone
Dam thermal transport model, for describing the relationship of seepage field and temperature field inside earth and rockfill dam；
The flow equation established in step 1 is specially earth and rockfill dam saturation-unsaturation Transient Flow field, using Richards
Equation is described:
In formula: ρwFor the density of water, CmFor soil body moisture capacity, g is acceleration of gravity, SeFor soil body relative saturation degree, SsFor
Elastic water storage rate,For Laplace operator, θ is soil moisture content, KsHydraulic conductivity, K are saturated for the soil bodyr(θ) is that dam body is non-
For the saturated zone soil body with respect to hydraulic conductivity, μ (T) is the dynamic viscosity of water, is the function of temperature, μ (T)=0.00002414 × 10(247.8/(T+133.16)), p is pressure, and z is to calculate point position elevation, QmFor seepage field source sink term, T is temperature；
Soil moisture content θ in step 1 specifically:
θ=θr+Se(θs-θr) (2)；
Wherein, θrFor residual water content, θsFor saturated aqueous rate,α is that water characteristic is bent
The inverse of line air-entry value, hpFor pressure head, nvFor the instruction parameter of the water characteristic curve gradient, pass through fitting soil mass water dtex
Sign curve obtains, and m is model parameter, m=1-1/nv；
Soil body moisture capacity C in step 1mSpecifically:
The dam body unsaturation band soil body in step 1 is with respect to hydraulic conductivity Kr(θ) specifically:
Earth and rockfill dam thermal transport model is described using thermal convection heat transfer equation, specifically:
In formula: ρeqFor equivalent density, ceqFor equivalent specific heat appearance, T is temperature, and t is time, λeqFor Equivalent Thermal Conductivities, cw
For the specific heat capacity of water, DHFor hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient, u is the mean flow rate of water, QsFor temperature field source sink term.
Hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient D in formula (6)HSpecifically:
DH=αT|v|δij+(αL-αT)vivj|v| (7)
In formula, αTFor level dispersivity, αLFor vertical dispersivity, viFor the direction i velocity vector, δijFor Krieger constant, when
It is 1 when i=j, is otherwise 0；| v | it is the size of velocity vector；
Equivalent density ρeqSpecifically:
ρeq=(1-n) ρs+θρw+(n-θ)ρg (8)
Equivalent specific heat holds ceqSpecifically:
ceq=(1-n) cs+θcw+(n-θ)cg (9)
Wherein, cwFor the specific heat capacity of water, ρwFor the density of water, csFor the specific heat capacity of the dam body soil body, ρsFor the close of the dam body soil body
Degree, cgFor the specific heat capacity of air, ρgFor the density of air, n is the porosity of the dam body soil body, when in a saturated state, θ=n,
Equation (6) is exactly saturated aqueous layer convective heat transfer equation；
Step 2: boundary condition being arranged to earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including side is arranged to seepage field
Boundary condition is arranged in boundary's condition and temperature field；
Boundary condition is arranged to seepage field: upstream dam body is to determine head boundary, head 13.2m, and dam facing head is buried by it
It changes linearly deeply；Downstream is anhydrous, and downstream boundary is to determine head boundary, head 0m；Other boundaries are zero flux boundary；
Boundary condition is arranged to temperature field:
The library water surface is chosen with lower boundary by the variation of library water temperature year, are as follows:
In formula, y be reservoir level elevation, unit m,For month；
Dam body bottom boundary is adiabatic boundary；
The library water surface is contacted with coboundary with atmosphere, has seasonal fluctuations, daily means temperature value, here using locality
Temperature scatterplot data, is fitted by following formula:
In formula, T0For average temperature of the whole year, l is the order of Fourier space, l=1,2 ..., γ, AlAnd BlFor Fourier space
Coefficient, L is the period；
It is 0m that seepage field primary condition, which is assumed to be pressure head, and temperature field assumes that initial temperature is average temperature of the whole year；
Step 3: determining the parameter of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, select the range of its parameter；
What it is due to consideration is a coupled problem, and dam temperature field should be simultaneously by region Warm status and seepage field
Joint effect.Under the sizable assumed condition in zoning, it is assumed that do not have between dam infiltration system and geology of deep part body
Heat exchange, then temperature boundary only has two temperature known boundaries conditions of upstream bottom storehouse water temperature and downstream dam facing temperature, and seepage flow is situated between
The basic parameter of matter has a certain impact to temperature field, determines earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter are as follows: hydraulic conductivity Ks, it is full
With moisture content θs, residual water content θr, the dam body soil body density ps, the dam body soil body specific heat capacity cs, the dam body soil body porosity n
With Equivalent Thermal Conductivities λeq, then according to earth and rockfill dam relevant design specification and selected actual engineering design data, in determination
State the range of 7 parameters；
Step 4: sample sampling is carried out to selected stream strategy model parameter range；
Specifically:
Step 4.1,7 parameters selected according to step 3, if model output function y=f (x1,x2…,xk), containing k ginseng
The variation range of each parameter is mapped to section [0,1], and have pre- in conjunction with the probability distribution that each parameter is obeyed by number, k=7
If the horizontal p=k+1 of sampling by its discretization, make each parameter can only be fromMiddle value,Allowing k parameter, random sampling is primary all on p sample point, and the vector of acquisition is expressed as X=(x1,x2,…,
xk)；
Step 4.2, from multiple vector X=(x1,x2,…,xk) in randomly select vector as input parameter " base value "
Vector is denoted as:Then from vectorIt sets out progress 8 times and samples, sample every time
It is all rightIn one or several parameters apply the variable quantity of Δ, make the obtained vector of samplingIn all only have 1 parameter that Δ occurs per adjacent 2 vectors variable quantity,
And it allows this k parameter to change this k+1 adjacent vector once sampled in turn and is referred to as a track；
Step 5: the sample parameter group that sampling obtains is substituted into the earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy mould of building respectively
It is calculated in type；Specifically:
Step 5.1, the monitoring point of monitoring temperature output valve is set in earth and rockfill dam model；
Step 5.2, the parameter group that sampling obtains successively is substituted into earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model and is calculated；
Step 5.3, it arranges each parameter group and each monitoring point temperature value output, and list is calculated；
Step 6: according to the calculated result of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, finding out each in earth and rockfill dam model
The mean value and variance of monitoring point temperature value output；Specifically:
Step 6.1, each monitoring point temperature value output is calculated according to arrangement, calculates each monitoring point model and calculates output
Temperature mean value and variance, and list；
Step 6.2, obtained mean value and variance are taken absolute value, draws scatter plot, obtain influencing model temperature output
The main and minor effect factor.
Embodiment
A kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters analysis construction method, is specifically implemented according to the following steps:
Step 1: building earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including establish flow equation and establish native stone
Dam thermal transport model, for describing the relationship of seepage field and temperature field inside earth and rockfill dam；
The flow equation of foundation is specially earth and rockfill dam saturation-unsaturation Transient Flow field, is carried out using Richards equation
Description:
In formula: ρwFor the density (kg/m of water3), CmIt is acceleration of gravity (m/s for soil body moisture capacity (1/m), g2), SeFor soil
Body relative saturation degree (%), SsFor elastic water storage rate (1/Pa),For Laplace operator, θ is soil moisture content (m3·m-3),
KsIt is saturated hydraulic conductivity (m/s) for the soil body, Kr(θ) is with respect to hydraulic conductivity (m/s), μ (T) for the dam body unsaturation band soil body
The dynamic viscosity (Pas) of water is the function of temperature, μ (T)=0.00002414 × 10(247.8/(T+133.16)), p is pressure
(Pa), z is to calculate point position elevation (m), QmFor seepage field source sink term, T is temperature (DEG C)；
Soil moisture content θ specifically:
θ=θr+Se(θs-θr) (2)；
Wherein, θrFor residual water content (m3·m-3), θsFor saturated aqueous rate (m3·m-3),
α is the inverse (1/m) of water characteristic curve air-entry value, hpFor pressure head (m), nvJoin for the instruction of the water characteristic curve gradient
Number is obtained by being fitted soil body moisture indicatrix, and m is model parameter, m=1-1/nv；
Soil body moisture capacity C in step 1mSpecifically:
The dam body unsaturation band soil body in step 1 is with respect to hydraulic conductivity Kr(θ) specifically:
Earth and rockfill dam thermal transport model is described using thermal convection heat transfer equation, specifically:
In formula: ρeqFor equivalent density (kg/m3), ceqHold (J/ (kg DEG C)) for equivalent specific heat, T is temperature (DEG C), when t is
Between (s), λeqFor Equivalent Thermal Conductivities (W/ (m DEG C)), cwFor the specific heat capacity (J/ (kg DEG C)) of water, DHFor hydrodynamic dispersion system
Number, u are the mean flow rate (m/s) of water, QsFor temperature field source sink term.
Hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient D in formula (6)HSpecifically:
DH=αT|v|δij+(αL-αT)vivj|v| (7)
In formula, αTFor level dispersivity (m), αLFor vertical dispersivity (m), viFor the direction i velocity vector, δijFor Krieger
Constant is 1 as i=j, is otherwise 0；| v | it is the size of velocity vector；
Equivalent density ρeqSpecifically:
ρeq=(1-n) ρs+θρw+(n-θ)ρg (8)
Equivalent specific heat holds ceqSpecifically:
ceq=(1-n) cs+θcw+(n-θ)cg (9)
Wherein, cwFor the specific heat capacity (J/ (kg DEG C)) of water, ρwFor the density (kg/m of water3), csFor the specific heat of the dam body soil body
Hold (J/ (kg DEG C)), ρsFor the density (kg/m of the dam body soil body3), cgFor the specific heat capacity (J/ (kg DEG C)) of air, ρgFor air
Density (kg/m3), n is the porosity (%) of the dam body soil body, and when in a saturated state, θ=n, equation (6) is exactly that saturation contains
Water layer convective heat transfer equation；
Step 2: boundary condition being arranged to earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including side is arranged to seepage field
Boundary condition is arranged in boundary's condition and temperature field；
As shown in Figure 1, Fig. 1 gives earth and rockfill dam dam body structure chart, boundary condition: upstream dam body H-A- is arranged to seepage field
B-C is to determine head boundary, head 13.2m, and dam facing head is changed linearly by its buried depth；Downstream is anhydrous, the side downstream boundary D-E
Boundary is to determine head boundary, head 0m；Other boundaries are zero flux boundary；
Boundary condition is arranged to temperature field:
The library water surface is chosen with lower boundary by the variation of library water temperature year, are as follows:
In formula, y is reservoir level elevation (m),For month,
Dam body bottom boundary E-F-G-H is adiabatic boundary；
The water surface above boundary B-C-D-E in library is contacted with atmosphere, have seasonal fluctuations, daily means temperature value, here
Using ground temperature scatterplot data (data source is in China Meteorological data network) is worked as, it is fitted by following formula:
In formula, T0For average temperature of the whole year (DEG C), l is the order of Fourier space, l=1,2 ..., γ, AlAnd BlFor Fourier
The coefficient of series, L are the period, and the period herein is 365 days；
Ground year temperature volatility model is obtained by formula (11) fitting；Take 5 rank fourier series that can meet required precision,
Ground year, temperature regression model coefficient was respectively as follows: T0=8.8141, A1=-14.241, A2=-1.0891, A3=-0.3545, A4
=-0.0169, A5=0.0563, B1=-2.5332, B2=-0.3466, B3=-0.2486, B4=0.1595, B5=-
0.0471, using this model as periodic temperature boundary, therefore obtaining average temperature of the whole year is 8.8 DEG C, uses this model can be with
Determine the temperature fluctuation at each moment；
It is 0 that seepage field primary condition, which is assumed to be pressure head, and temperature field assumes that initial temperature is average temperature of the whole year；
Step 3: determining the parameter of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, select the range of its parameter；
Determine earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter are as follows: hydraulic conductivity Ks, saturated aqueous rate θs, residual water content θr, dam
The density p of the body soil bodys, the dam body soil body specific heat capacity cs, the dam body soil body porosity n and Equivalent Thermal Conductivities λeq, then basis
Earth and rockfill dam relevant design specification and selected actual engineering design data determine the range of above-mentioned 7 parameters, as shown in table 1；
The probability distribution that 1 earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter of table is obeyed
| Parameter | Symbol | Unit | The probability distribution that parameter is obeyed |
| Hydraulic conductivity | Ks | m/s | Ks~(10-9, 10-7) |
| Saturated aqueous rate | θs | m3·m-3 | θs~(0.36,0.49) |
| Residual water content | θr | m3·m-3 | θr~(0.013,0.190) |
| The density of the dam body soil body | ρs | kg/m3 | ρs~(1390,2690) |
| The specific heat capacity of the dam body soil body | cs | J/(kg·℃) | cs~(400,1500) |
| The porosity of the dam body soil body | n | % | N~(21,68) |
| Equivalent Thermal Conductivities | λeq | W/(m·℃) | λ~(0.25,5.03) |
Step 4: sample sampling is carried out to selected stream strategy model parameter range；
Specifically:
Step 4.1,7 parameters selected according to step 3, if model output function y=f (x1, x2..., xk), containing 7 ginsengs
Number, in conjunction with the probability distribution that each parameter is obeyed, is mapped to section [0,1] for the variation range of each parameter, and have preset
Horizontal p=k+1 sample for its discretization, makes each parameter can only be fromMiddle value,
Allowing k parameter, random sampling is primary all on p sample point, obtains multiple vector X=(x1, x2..., xk)；
Step 4.2, from multiple vector X=(x1, x2..., xk) in randomly select vector as input parameter " base value "
Vector is denoted as:Then from vectorIt sets out progress 8 times and samples, sample every time
It is all rightIn one or several parameters apply the variable quantity of Δ, make the obtained vector of samplingIn all only have 1 parameter that Δ occurs per adjacent 2 vectors variable quantity,
And it allows this k parameter to change this k+1 adjacent vector once sampled in turn and is referred to as a track；Now by the 1st article
The sampling results list of track such as table 2, other 9 tracks are not enumerated.
2 earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter sampling samples of table
| Sample | Track 1 |
| 1 | (7.17×10-8,0.434,0.038,2504,400,34.4,2.299) |
| 2 | (7.17×10-8,0.434,0.038,2504,400,27.7,2.299) |
| 3 | (7.17×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,400,27.7,2.299) |
| 4 | (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,400,27.7,2.299) |
| 5 | (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,400,27.7,2.981) |
| 6 | (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,557,27.7,2.981) |
| 7 | (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.013,2690,557,27.7,2.981) |
| 8 | (5.76×10-8,0.416,0.013,2690,557,27.7,2.981) |
Step 5: the sample parameter group that sampling obtains is substituted into the earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy mould of building respectively
It is calculated in type；Specifically:
Step 5.1, the monitoring point that monitoring temperature output valve is set in earth and rockfill dam model, sets 4 prisons along horizontal direction
Measuring point, coordinate are respectively 1#(20,5),2#(40,5),3#(60,5),4#(80,5)；In vertical direction, divide before and after cut-pff wall
Not She Zhi 3 monitoring points, coordinate 5#(55,10),6#(55,-5),7#(55,-20),8#(60,10),9#(60,-5),10#
(60, -20), as shown in Figure 2；
Step 5.2, the parameter group that sampling obtains successively is substituted into earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model and is calculated；
Step 5.3, it arranges each parameter group and each monitoring point temperature value output, and list is calculated；As listed in table 3；
3 each monitoring point temperature value of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model of table
Step 6: according to the calculated result of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, finding out each in earth and rockfill dam model
The mean value and variance of monitoring point temperature value output；Specifically:
Step 6.1, each monitoring point temperature value output is calculated according to arrangement, calculates each monitoring point model and calculates output
Temperature mean value and variance, and list, as shown in table 4,；
The Morris sensitivity analysis result of 4 earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model monitoring point of table
Step 6.2, obtained mean value and variance are taken absolute value, draws scatter plot as shown in figure 3, obtaining influencing model temperature
The main and minor effect factor of degree output.
A kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters of the present invention analyze construction method:
(1) the earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model constructed can more accurately reflect stream Warm status locating for earth and rockfill dam, first
It is the process for considering dam body internal temperature field Yu seepage flow field interactions；Followed by consider the shadow of periodical variation of ambient temperature
It rings, belongs to close coupling process.
(2) output of earth and rockfill dam internal temperature field influences have certain changing rule between monitoring location: from dam body
To dam foundation vertical direction, the influence of parameters versus temperature value is presented to increase dam crest before and after trip to dam body downstream horizontal direction and cut-pff wall
Trend, when each parameter influences the output of model temperature value and the trend of increase is also presented in the interaction size of other parameters.
(3) must from the point of view of, hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and the dam body soil body specific heat capacity (cs) temperature mean value it is larger, they are
The parameter being affected to the output of model temperature value；And thermal coefficient (λeq), saturated aqueous rate (θs), residual water content
(θr), porosity (n) and soil body density (ρs) μ value it is smaller, they are the small parameters of sensibility, on model export influence very little.
Wherein, hydraulic conductivity (Ks) influence maximum, saturated aqueous rate (θ are exported on models), residual water content (θr) and porosity (n)
Temperature mean value be 0, model is exported influence it is minimum, so these three parameters can on the influence of dam body temperature in heat transfer process
To ignore.
(4) hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and the dam body soil body specific heat capacity (cs) etc. parameters variance yields it is larger, illustrate that it is being influenced
When model temperature value exports, biggish interaction is generated with other parameters, they, which export temperature value, in other words influences right and wrong
Linear, and thermal coefficient (λeq), saturated aqueous rate (θs), residual water content (θr), porosity (n) and soil body density (ρs)
Variance yields is relatively small, when illustrating to influence model output, interacts with other parameters smaller.Mean value is larger, corresponding variance
Value is general also larger, when illustrating that a parameter influences bigger to the output valve of model, often also gets over other parameters interaction
Greatly.Therefore, it in practical study, improves to hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and specific heat capacity (cs) accuracy of observation, in this way, even if compared with
Consider less or ignore those secondary causes, also available analog result and the close numerical model of actual phenomenon.
(5) the existing positive interaction relationship of influence of each parameter to model temperature value, and have negative interaction relationship.This positive negative action
Relationship can correct for model and provide certain reference.Positive interaction relationship show adjust ginseng during parameter increase and reduce with
The variation of temperature value is consistent, and negative interaction relationship shows that the increase of parameter and reduction are opposite with the variation of temperature value.With regard to this research
For, adjust ginseng when, when dam body analog temperature value be less than measured value when, we can by increase positive interaction parameter value or
Reduce negative interaction parameter value to adjust entire model, so that modeling is closer to actual conditions.
Claims (10)
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| CN114251075A (en) * | 2020-09-23 | 2022-03-29 | 中国石油大学(北京) | Method, Apparatus and Equipment for Determining Reservoir Development Scheme Based on Multi-objective Parameters |
| CN114117759A (en) * | 2021-11-12 | 2022-03-01 | 大连海事大学 | Large ship shafting inherent frequency uncertainty analysis method based on nonparametric model |
| CN114444344A (en) * | 2021-12-23 | 2022-05-06 | 中国三峡建设管理有限公司 | Temperature field calculation method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium thereof |
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