CN109726464A - A Method for Sensitivity Analysis and Construction of Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Flow-thermal Coupling Model of Earth-rock Dam - Google Patents

A Method for Sensitivity Analysis and Construction of Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Flow-thermal Coupling Model of Earth-rock Dam Download PDF

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CN109726464A
CN109726464A CN201811590598.9A CN201811590598A CN109726464A CN 109726464 A CN109726464 A CN 109726464A CN 201811590598 A CN201811590598 A CN 201811590598A CN 109726464 A CN109726464 A CN 109726464A
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earth
dam
model
flow
temperature
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任杰
张文兵
杨杰
陈建琪
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Xian University of Technology
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Xian University of Technology
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Abstract

本发明公开了一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,具体为:构建土石坝饱和‑非饱和流热耦合模型并设置边界条件,模型包括建立流动方程以及建立土石坝热量运移模型,边界条件包括对渗流场设置边界条件以及温度场设置边界条件;再确定土石坝饱和‑非饱和流热耦合模型的参数,选定其参数的范围,然后对选定的流热耦合模型参数范围进行样本抽样,将抽样得到的样本参数组分别代入构建的模型中进行计算,求出土石坝模型中各监测点温度输出值的均值与方差。本发明一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,通过构建土石坝饱和‑非饱和流热耦合模型,对土石坝内部渗流场与温度场进行表达,得到影响模型温度输出的主要和次要影响因子。

The invention discloses a method for parameter sensitivity analysis and construction of a flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam, specifically: constructing a saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam and setting boundary conditions. The model includes establishing a flow equation and establishing an earth-rock dam heat transfer model. The model, the boundary conditions include setting boundary conditions for the seepage field and setting boundary conditions for the temperature field; then determine the parameters of the saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of the earth-rock dam, select the range of its parameters, and then set the parameters of the selected flow-heat coupling model. The sample parameter group obtained by sampling is substituted into the constructed model for calculation, and the mean and variance of the temperature output values of each monitoring point in the earth-rock dam model are obtained. The present invention is a method for analyzing and constructing parameter sensitivity of a flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam. By constructing a saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of an earth-rock dam, the internal seepage field and temperature field of the earth-rock dam are expressed, and the main parameters affecting the temperature output of the model are obtained. Secondary impact factor.

Description

A kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters analysis construction method
Technical field
The invention belongs to hydraulic engineering technical fields, are related to a kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters analysis structure Construction method.
Background technique
The earth and rockfill dam dam foundation of normal operation phase and dam body temperature field are mainly influenced by seepage flow condition, in Rock And Soil medium Water Transport controls the distribution in temperature field, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristic energy inverting characteristics of seepage field in temperature field.Therefore, native stone is studied The coupling in dam temperature field and seepage field, can be to provide reason by thermo parameters method profile feedback dam body Seepage Safety condition By basis.With the development of the hot monitoring technology of earth-rock dam seepage, seepage field is fed back by temperature field and seepage failure point has become For current popular one of engineer application technology.If only analyzing the single game distribution in earth-rock dam seepage field or temperature field, and ignore Two couplings are not consistent with Practical Project.Based on this, many scholars establish reflection earth and rockfill dam temperature field and seepage flow The computation model of field coupling.However, often parameter is numerous for these models, and it is related to complex nonlinear dynamic process.Model parameter A variety of uncertain factors such as scale diversification and foozle will lead to model prediction uncertainty.Therefore, analysis model Parameter uncertainty and sensibility can effectively study parameter to the effect of model output variable, parameter and interaction among parameters pair Model result influences.The principal element for determining change of temperature field is found out in influence by each influence factor of quantitative study to model, Main attention can be thus concentrated to improve the accuracy of observation of these major influence factors, even if less consideration or to ignore those secondary Factor, also available analog result and the close numerical model of actual phenomenon.
It is widely applied currently, susceptibility process suffers from many fields.However, having for dam temperature field Research mostly be by Sensitivity Analysis be applied to casting of concrete in mass temperature stress control research, and for operation Phase by the earth and rockfill dam temperature field of seepage effect, equally can inquire into its main affecting factors, but relevant sensitivity using this method Property analysis construction method have not been reported.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters to analyze construction method, passes through structure Earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model is built, earth and rockfill dam inside seepage field is expressed with temperature field, obtains influencing mould The main and minor effect factor of type temperature output.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is that a kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters analyze building side Method is specifically implemented according to the following steps:
Step 1: building earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including establish flow equation and establish native stone Dam thermal transport model, for describing the relationship of seepage field and temperature field inside earth and rockfill dam;
Step 2: boundary condition being arranged to earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including side is arranged to seepage field Boundary condition is arranged in boundary's condition and temperature field;
Step 3: determining the parameter of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, select the range of its parameter;
Step 4: sample sampling is carried out to selected stream strategy model parameter range;
Step 5: the sample parameter group that sampling obtains is substituted into the earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy mould of building respectively It is calculated in type;
Step 6: according to the calculated result of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, finding out each in earth and rockfill dam model The mean value and variance of monitoring point temperature value output.
It is of the invention to be further characterized in that,
The flow equation established in step 1 is specially earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones Transient Flow field, using the side Richards Journey is described:
In formula: ρwFor the density of water, CmFor soil body moisture capacity, g is acceleration of gravity, SeFor soil body relative saturation degree, SsFor Elastic water storage rate,For Laplace operator, θ is soil moisture content, KsHydraulic conductivity, K are saturated for the soil bodyr(θ) is that dam body is non- For the saturated zone soil body with respect to hydraulic conductivity, μ (T) is the dynamic viscosity of water, is the function of temperature, μ (T)=0.00002414 × 10(247.8/(T+133.16)), p is pressure, and z is to calculate point position elevation, QmFor seepage field source sink term, T is temperature.
Soil moisture content θ in step 1 specifically:
θ=θr+Sesr) (2);
Wherein, θrFor residual water content, θsFor saturated aqueous rate,α is that water characteristic is bent The inverse of line air-entry value, hpFor pressure head, nvFor the instruction parameter of the water characteristic curve gradient, pass through fitting soil mass water dtex Sign curve obtains, and m is model parameter, m=1-1/nv
Soil body moisture capacity C in step 1mSpecifically:
The dam body unsaturation band soil body in step 1 is with respect to hydraulic conductivity Kr(θ) specifically:
Earth and rockfill dam thermal transport model in step 1 is described using thermal convection heat transfer equation, specifically:
In formula: ρeqFor equivalent density, ceqFor equivalent specific heat appearance, T is temperature, and t is time, λeqFor Equivalent Thermal Conductivities, cw For the specific heat capacity of water, DHFor hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient, u is the mean flow rate of water, QsFor temperature field source sink term.
Hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient D in formula (6)HSpecifically:
DHT|v|δij+(αLT)vivj|v| (7)
In formula, αTFor level dispersivity, αLFor vertical dispersivity, viFor the direction i velocity vector, δijFor Krieger constant, when It is 1 when i=j, is otherwise 0;| v | it is the size of velocity vector;
Equivalent density ρeqSpecifically:
ρeq=(1-n) ρs+θρw+(n-θ)ρg (8)
Equivalent specific heat holds ceqSpecifically:
ceq=(1-n) cs+θcw+(n-θ)cg (9)
Wherein, cwFor the specific heat capacity of water, ρwFor the density of water, csFor the specific heat capacity of the dam body soil body, ρsFor the close of the dam body soil body Degree, cgFor the specific heat capacity of air, ρgFor the density of air, n is the porosity of the dam body soil body, when in a saturated state, θ=n, Equation (6) is exactly saturated aqueous layer convective heat transfer equation.
Step 2 specifically:
Boundary condition is arranged to seepage field: upstream dam body is to determine head boundary, head 13.2m, and dam facing head is buried by it It changes linearly deeply;Downstream is anhydrous, and downstream boundary is to determine head boundary, head 0m;Other boundaries are zero flux boundary;
Boundary condition is arranged to temperature field:
The library water surface is chosen with lower boundary by the variation of library water temperature year, are as follows:
In formula, y be reservoir level elevation, unit m,For month;
Dam body bottom boundary is adiabatic boundary;
The library water surface is contacted with coboundary with atmosphere, has seasonal fluctuations, daily means temperature value, here using locality Temperature scatterplot data, is fitted by following formula:
In formula, T0For average temperature of the whole year, l is the order of Fourier space, l=1,2 ..., γ, AlAnd BlFor Fourier space Coefficient, L is the period;
It is 0m that seepage field primary condition, which is assumed to be pressure head, and temperature field assumes that initial temperature is average temperature of the whole year.
Earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter is determined in step 3 are as follows: hydraulic conductivity Ks, saturated aqueous rate θs, remaining aqueous Rate θr, the dam body soil body density ps, the dam body soil body specific heat capacity cs, the dam body soil body porosity n and Equivalent Thermal Conductivities λeq, so Afterwards according to earth and rockfill dam relevant design specification and selected actual engineering design data, the range of above-mentioned 7 parameters is determined.
Step 4 specifically:
Step 4.1,7 parameters selected according to step 3, if model output function y=f (x1,x2…,xk), containing k ginseng The variation range of each parameter is mapped to section [0,1], and have preset in conjunction with the probability distribution that each parameter is obeyed by number, k=7 Horizontal p=k+1 sample for its discretization, makes each parameter can only be fromMiddle value, Allowing k parameter, random sampling is primary all on p sample point, and the vector of acquisition is expressed as X=(x1,x2,…,xk);
Step 4.2, from multiple vector X=(x1,x2,…,xk) in randomly select vector as input parameter " base value " Vector is denoted as:Then from vectorIt sets out progress 8 times and samples, sample every time It is all rightIn one or several parameters apply the variable quantity of Δ, make the obtained vector of samplingIn all only have 1 parameter that Δ occurs per adjacent 2 vectors variable quantity, And it allows this k parameter to change this k+1 adjacent vector once sampled in turn and is referred to as a track.
Step 5 specifically:
Step 5.1, the monitoring point of monitoring temperature output valve is set in earth and rockfill dam model;
Step 5.2, the parameter group that sampling obtains successively is substituted into earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model and is calculated;
Step 5.3, it arranges each parameter group and each monitoring point temperature value output, and list is calculated.
Step 6 specifically:
Step 6.1, each monitoring point temperature value output is calculated according to arrangement, calculates each monitoring point model and calculates output Temperature mean value and variance, and list;
Step 6.2, obtained mean value and variance are taken absolute value, draws scatter plot, obtain influencing model temperature output The main and minor effect factor.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
(1) the earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model that the present invention constructs can more accurately reflect the hot shape of stream locating for earth and rockfill dam State is the process for considering dam body internal temperature field Yu seepage flow field interactions first;Followed by consider periodical environment temperature The influence of variation belongs to close coupling process.
(2) output of earth and rockfill dam internal temperature field influences have certain changing rule between monitoring location: from dam body To dam foundation vertical direction, the influence of parameters versus temperature value is presented to increase dam crest before and after trip to dam body downstream horizontal direction and cut-pff wall Trend, when each parameter influences the output of model temperature value and the trend of increase is also presented in the interaction size of other parameters.
Specific embodiment
The following describes the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
A kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters of the present invention analyze construction method, specifically real according to the following steps It applies:
Step 1: building earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including establish flow equation and establish native stone Dam thermal transport model, for describing the relationship of seepage field and temperature field inside earth and rockfill dam;
The flow equation established in step 1 is specially earth and rockfill dam saturation-unsaturation Transient Flow field, using Richards Equation is described:
In formula: ρwFor the density of water, CmFor soil body moisture capacity, g is acceleration of gravity, SeFor soil body relative saturation degree, SsFor Elastic water storage rate,For Laplace operator, θ is soil moisture content, KsHydraulic conductivity, K are saturated for the soil bodyr(θ) is that dam body is non- For the saturated zone soil body with respect to hydraulic conductivity, μ (T) is the dynamic viscosity of water, is the function of temperature, μ (T)=0.00002414 × 10(247.8/(T+133.16)), p is pressure, and z is to calculate point position elevation, QmFor seepage field source sink term, T is temperature;
Soil moisture content θ in step 1 specifically:
θ=θr+Sesr) (2);
Wherein, θrFor residual water content, θsFor saturated aqueous rate,α is that water characteristic is bent The inverse of line air-entry value, hpFor pressure head, nvFor the instruction parameter of the water characteristic curve gradient, pass through fitting soil mass water dtex Sign curve obtains, and m is model parameter, m=1-1/nv
Soil body moisture capacity C in step 1mSpecifically:
The dam body unsaturation band soil body in step 1 is with respect to hydraulic conductivity Kr(θ) specifically:
Earth and rockfill dam thermal transport model is described using thermal convection heat transfer equation, specifically:
In formula: ρeqFor equivalent density, ceqFor equivalent specific heat appearance, T is temperature, and t is time, λeqFor Equivalent Thermal Conductivities, cw For the specific heat capacity of water, DHFor hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient, u is the mean flow rate of water, QsFor temperature field source sink term.
Hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient D in formula (6)HSpecifically:
DHT|v|δij+(αLT)vivj|v| (7)
In formula, αTFor level dispersivity, αLFor vertical dispersivity, viFor the direction i velocity vector, δijFor Krieger constant, when It is 1 when i=j, is otherwise 0;| v | it is the size of velocity vector;
Equivalent density ρeqSpecifically:
ρeq=(1-n) ρs+θρw+(n-θ)ρg (8)
Equivalent specific heat holds ceqSpecifically:
ceq=(1-n) cs+θcw+(n-θ)cg (9)
Wherein, cwFor the specific heat capacity of water, ρwFor the density of water, csFor the specific heat capacity of the dam body soil body, ρsFor the close of the dam body soil body Degree, cgFor the specific heat capacity of air, ρgFor the density of air, n is the porosity of the dam body soil body, when in a saturated state, θ=n, Equation (6) is exactly saturated aqueous layer convective heat transfer equation;
Step 2: boundary condition being arranged to earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including side is arranged to seepage field Boundary condition is arranged in boundary's condition and temperature field;
Boundary condition is arranged to seepage field: upstream dam body is to determine head boundary, head 13.2m, and dam facing head is buried by it It changes linearly deeply;Downstream is anhydrous, and downstream boundary is to determine head boundary, head 0m;Other boundaries are zero flux boundary;
Boundary condition is arranged to temperature field:
The library water surface is chosen with lower boundary by the variation of library water temperature year, are as follows:
In formula, y be reservoir level elevation, unit m,For month;
Dam body bottom boundary is adiabatic boundary;
The library water surface is contacted with coboundary with atmosphere, has seasonal fluctuations, daily means temperature value, here using locality Temperature scatterplot data, is fitted by following formula:
In formula, T0For average temperature of the whole year, l is the order of Fourier space, l=1,2 ..., γ, AlAnd BlFor Fourier space Coefficient, L is the period;
It is 0m that seepage field primary condition, which is assumed to be pressure head, and temperature field assumes that initial temperature is average temperature of the whole year;
Step 3: determining the parameter of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, select the range of its parameter;
What it is due to consideration is a coupled problem, and dam temperature field should be simultaneously by region Warm status and seepage field Joint effect.Under the sizable assumed condition in zoning, it is assumed that do not have between dam infiltration system and geology of deep part body Heat exchange, then temperature boundary only has two temperature known boundaries conditions of upstream bottom storehouse water temperature and downstream dam facing temperature, and seepage flow is situated between The basic parameter of matter has a certain impact to temperature field, determines earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter are as follows: hydraulic conductivity Ks, it is full With moisture content θs, residual water content θr, the dam body soil body density ps, the dam body soil body specific heat capacity cs, the dam body soil body porosity n With Equivalent Thermal Conductivities λeq, then according to earth and rockfill dam relevant design specification and selected actual engineering design data, in determination State the range of 7 parameters;
Step 4: sample sampling is carried out to selected stream strategy model parameter range;
Specifically:
Step 4.1,7 parameters selected according to step 3, if model output function y=f (x1,x2…,xk), containing k ginseng The variation range of each parameter is mapped to section [0,1], and have pre- in conjunction with the probability distribution that each parameter is obeyed by number, k=7 If the horizontal p=k+1 of sampling by its discretization, make each parameter can only be fromMiddle value,Allowing k parameter, random sampling is primary all on p sample point, and the vector of acquisition is expressed as X=(x1,x2,…, xk);
Step 4.2, from multiple vector X=(x1,x2,…,xk) in randomly select vector as input parameter " base value " Vector is denoted as:Then from vectorIt sets out progress 8 times and samples, sample every time It is all rightIn one or several parameters apply the variable quantity of Δ, make the obtained vector of samplingIn all only have 1 parameter that Δ occurs per adjacent 2 vectors variable quantity, And it allows this k parameter to change this k+1 adjacent vector once sampled in turn and is referred to as a track;
Step 5: the sample parameter group that sampling obtains is substituted into the earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy mould of building respectively It is calculated in type;Specifically:
Step 5.1, the monitoring point of monitoring temperature output valve is set in earth and rockfill dam model;
Step 5.2, the parameter group that sampling obtains successively is substituted into earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model and is calculated;
Step 5.3, it arranges each parameter group and each monitoring point temperature value output, and list is calculated;
Step 6: according to the calculated result of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, finding out each in earth and rockfill dam model The mean value and variance of monitoring point temperature value output;Specifically:
Step 6.1, each monitoring point temperature value output is calculated according to arrangement, calculates each monitoring point model and calculates output Temperature mean value and variance, and list;
Step 6.2, obtained mean value and variance are taken absolute value, draws scatter plot, obtain influencing model temperature output The main and minor effect factor.
Embodiment
A kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters analysis construction method, is specifically implemented according to the following steps:
Step 1: building earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including establish flow equation and establish native stone Dam thermal transport model, for describing the relationship of seepage field and temperature field inside earth and rockfill dam;
The flow equation of foundation is specially earth and rockfill dam saturation-unsaturation Transient Flow field, is carried out using Richards equation Description:
In formula: ρwFor the density (kg/m of water3), CmIt is acceleration of gravity (m/s for soil body moisture capacity (1/m), g2), SeFor soil Body relative saturation degree (%), SsFor elastic water storage rate (1/Pa),For Laplace operator, θ is soil moisture content (m3·m-3), KsIt is saturated hydraulic conductivity (m/s) for the soil body, Kr(θ) is with respect to hydraulic conductivity (m/s), μ (T) for the dam body unsaturation band soil body The dynamic viscosity (Pas) of water is the function of temperature, μ (T)=0.00002414 × 10(247.8/(T+133.16)), p is pressure (Pa), z is to calculate point position elevation (m), QmFor seepage field source sink term, T is temperature (DEG C);
Soil moisture content θ specifically:
θ=θr+Sesr) (2);
Wherein, θrFor residual water content (m3·m-3), θsFor saturated aqueous rate (m3·m-3), α is the inverse (1/m) of water characteristic curve air-entry value, hpFor pressure head (m), nvJoin for the instruction of the water characteristic curve gradient Number is obtained by being fitted soil body moisture indicatrix, and m is model parameter, m=1-1/nv
Soil body moisture capacity C in step 1mSpecifically:
The dam body unsaturation band soil body in step 1 is with respect to hydraulic conductivity Kr(θ) specifically:
Earth and rockfill dam thermal transport model is described using thermal convection heat transfer equation, specifically:
In formula: ρeqFor equivalent density (kg/m3), ceqHold (J/ (kg DEG C)) for equivalent specific heat, T is temperature (DEG C), when t is Between (s), λeqFor Equivalent Thermal Conductivities (W/ (m DEG C)), cwFor the specific heat capacity (J/ (kg DEG C)) of water, DHFor hydrodynamic dispersion system Number, u are the mean flow rate (m/s) of water, QsFor temperature field source sink term.
Hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient D in formula (6)HSpecifically:
DHT|v|δij+(αLT)vivj|v| (7)
In formula, αTFor level dispersivity (m), αLFor vertical dispersivity (m), viFor the direction i velocity vector, δijFor Krieger Constant is 1 as i=j, is otherwise 0;| v | it is the size of velocity vector;
Equivalent density ρeqSpecifically:
ρeq=(1-n) ρs+θρw+(n-θ)ρg (8)
Equivalent specific heat holds ceqSpecifically:
ceq=(1-n) cs+θcw+(n-θ)cg (9)
Wherein, cwFor the specific heat capacity (J/ (kg DEG C)) of water, ρwFor the density (kg/m of water3), csFor the specific heat of the dam body soil body Hold (J/ (kg DEG C)), ρsFor the density (kg/m of the dam body soil body3), cgFor the specific heat capacity (J/ (kg DEG C)) of air, ρgFor air Density (kg/m3), n is the porosity (%) of the dam body soil body, and when in a saturated state, θ=n, equation (6) is exactly that saturation contains Water layer convective heat transfer equation;
Step 2: boundary condition being arranged to earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, including side is arranged to seepage field Boundary condition is arranged in boundary's condition and temperature field;
As shown in Figure 1, Fig. 1 gives earth and rockfill dam dam body structure chart, boundary condition: upstream dam body H-A- is arranged to seepage field B-C is to determine head boundary, head 13.2m, and dam facing head is changed linearly by its buried depth;Downstream is anhydrous, the side downstream boundary D-E Boundary is to determine head boundary, head 0m;Other boundaries are zero flux boundary;
Boundary condition is arranged to temperature field:
The library water surface is chosen with lower boundary by the variation of library water temperature year, are as follows:
In formula, y is reservoir level elevation (m),For month,
Dam body bottom boundary E-F-G-H is adiabatic boundary;
The water surface above boundary B-C-D-E in library is contacted with atmosphere, have seasonal fluctuations, daily means temperature value, here Using ground temperature scatterplot data (data source is in China Meteorological data network) is worked as, it is fitted by following formula:
In formula, T0For average temperature of the whole year (DEG C), l is the order of Fourier space, l=1,2 ..., γ, AlAnd BlFor Fourier The coefficient of series, L are the period, and the period herein is 365 days;
Ground year temperature volatility model is obtained by formula (11) fitting;Take 5 rank fourier series that can meet required precision, Ground year, temperature regression model coefficient was respectively as follows: T0=8.8141, A1=-14.241, A2=-1.0891, A3=-0.3545, A4 =-0.0169, A5=0.0563, B1=-2.5332, B2=-0.3466, B3=-0.2486, B4=0.1595, B5=- 0.0471, using this model as periodic temperature boundary, therefore obtaining average temperature of the whole year is 8.8 DEG C, uses this model can be with Determine the temperature fluctuation at each moment;
It is 0 that seepage field primary condition, which is assumed to be pressure head, and temperature field assumes that initial temperature is average temperature of the whole year;
Step 3: determining the parameter of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, select the range of its parameter;
Determine earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter are as follows: hydraulic conductivity Ks, saturated aqueous rate θs, residual water content θr, dam The density p of the body soil bodys, the dam body soil body specific heat capacity cs, the dam body soil body porosity n and Equivalent Thermal Conductivities λeq, then basis Earth and rockfill dam relevant design specification and selected actual engineering design data determine the range of above-mentioned 7 parameters, as shown in table 1;
The probability distribution that 1 earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter of table is obeyed
Parameter Symbol Unit The probability distribution that parameter is obeyed
Hydraulic conductivity Ks m/s Ks~(10-9, 10-7)
Saturated aqueous rate θs m3·m-3 θs~(0.36,0.49)
Residual water content θr m3·m-3 θr~(0.013,0.190)
The density of the dam body soil body ρs kg/m3 ρs~(1390,2690)
The specific heat capacity of the dam body soil body cs J/(kg·℃) cs~(400,1500)
The porosity of the dam body soil body n % N~(21,68)
Equivalent Thermal Conductivities λeq W/(m·℃) λ~(0.25,5.03)
Step 4: sample sampling is carried out to selected stream strategy model parameter range;
Specifically:
Step 4.1,7 parameters selected according to step 3, if model output function y=f (x1, x2..., xk), containing 7 ginsengs Number, in conjunction with the probability distribution that each parameter is obeyed, is mapped to section [0,1] for the variation range of each parameter, and have preset Horizontal p=k+1 sample for its discretization, makes each parameter can only be fromMiddle value, Allowing k parameter, random sampling is primary all on p sample point, obtains multiple vector X=(x1, x2..., xk);
Step 4.2, from multiple vector X=(x1, x2..., xk) in randomly select vector as input parameter " base value " Vector is denoted as:Then from vectorIt sets out progress 8 times and samples, sample every time It is all rightIn one or several parameters apply the variable quantity of Δ, make the obtained vector of samplingIn all only have 1 parameter that Δ occurs per adjacent 2 vectors variable quantity, And it allows this k parameter to change this k+1 adjacent vector once sampled in turn and is referred to as a track;Now by the 1st article The sampling results list of track such as table 2, other 9 tracks are not enumerated.
2 earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model parameter sampling samples of table
Sample Track 1
1 (7.17×10-8,0.434,0.038,2504,400,34.4,2.299)
2 (7.17×10-8,0.434,0.038,2504,400,27.7,2.299)
3 (7.17×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,400,27.7,2.299)
4 (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,400,27.7,2.299)
5 (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,400,27.7,2.981)
6 (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.038,2690,557,27.7,2.981)
7 (5.76×10-8,0.434,0.013,2690,557,27.7,2.981)
8 (5.76×10-8,0.416,0.013,2690,557,27.7,2.981)
Step 5: the sample parameter group that sampling obtains is substituted into the earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy mould of building respectively It is calculated in type;Specifically:
Step 5.1, the monitoring point that monitoring temperature output valve is set in earth and rockfill dam model, sets 4 prisons along horizontal direction Measuring point, coordinate are respectively 1#(20,5),2#(40,5),3#(60,5),4#(80,5);In vertical direction, divide before and after cut-pff wall Not She Zhi 3 monitoring points, coordinate 5#(55,10),6#(55,-5),7#(55,-20),8#(60,10),9#(60,-5),10# (60, -20), as shown in Figure 2;
Step 5.2, the parameter group that sampling obtains successively is substituted into earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model and is calculated;
Step 5.3, it arranges each parameter group and each monitoring point temperature value output, and list is calculated;As listed in table 3;
3 each monitoring point temperature value of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model of table
Step 6: according to the calculated result of earth and rockfill dam saturated-unsaturated zones stream strategy model, finding out each in earth and rockfill dam model The mean value and variance of monitoring point temperature value output;Specifically:
Step 6.1, each monitoring point temperature value output is calculated according to arrangement, calculates each monitoring point model and calculates output Temperature mean value and variance, and list, as shown in table 4,;
The Morris sensitivity analysis result of 4 earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model monitoring point of table
Step 6.2, obtained mean value and variance are taken absolute value, draws scatter plot as shown in figure 3, obtaining influencing model temperature The main and minor effect factor of degree output.
A kind of earth and rockfill dam stream strategy sensitive model parameters of the present invention analyze construction method:
(1) the earth and rockfill dam stream strategy model constructed can more accurately reflect stream Warm status locating for earth and rockfill dam, first It is the process for considering dam body internal temperature field Yu seepage flow field interactions;Followed by consider the shadow of periodical variation of ambient temperature It rings, belongs to close coupling process.
(2) output of earth and rockfill dam internal temperature field influences have certain changing rule between monitoring location: from dam body To dam foundation vertical direction, the influence of parameters versus temperature value is presented to increase dam crest before and after trip to dam body downstream horizontal direction and cut-pff wall Trend, when each parameter influences the output of model temperature value and the trend of increase is also presented in the interaction size of other parameters.
(3) must from the point of view of, hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and the dam body soil body specific heat capacity (cs) temperature mean value it is larger, they are The parameter being affected to the output of model temperature value;And thermal coefficient (λeq), saturated aqueous rate (θs), residual water content (θr), porosity (n) and soil body density (ρs) μ value it is smaller, they are the small parameters of sensibility, on model export influence very little. Wherein, hydraulic conductivity (Ks) influence maximum, saturated aqueous rate (θ are exported on models), residual water content (θr) and porosity (n) Temperature mean value be 0, model is exported influence it is minimum, so these three parameters can on the influence of dam body temperature in heat transfer process To ignore.
(4) hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and the dam body soil body specific heat capacity (cs) etc. parameters variance yields it is larger, illustrate that it is being influenced When model temperature value exports, biggish interaction is generated with other parameters, they, which export temperature value, in other words influences right and wrong Linear, and thermal coefficient (λeq), saturated aqueous rate (θs), residual water content (θr), porosity (n) and soil body density (ρs) Variance yields is relatively small, when illustrating to influence model output, interacts with other parameters smaller.Mean value is larger, corresponding variance Value is general also larger, when illustrating that a parameter influences bigger to the output valve of model, often also gets over other parameters interaction Greatly.Therefore, it in practical study, improves to hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and specific heat capacity (cs) accuracy of observation, in this way, even if compared with Consider less or ignore those secondary causes, also available analog result and the close numerical model of actual phenomenon.
(5) the existing positive interaction relationship of influence of each parameter to model temperature value, and have negative interaction relationship.This positive negative action Relationship can correct for model and provide certain reference.Positive interaction relationship show adjust ginseng during parameter increase and reduce with The variation of temperature value is consistent, and negative interaction relationship shows that the increase of parameter and reduction are opposite with the variation of temperature value.With regard to this research For, adjust ginseng when, when dam body analog temperature value be less than measured value when, we can by increase positive interaction parameter value or Reduce negative interaction parameter value to adjust entire model, so that modeling is closer to actual conditions.

Claims (10)

1.一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,具体按照以下步骤实施:1. an earth-rock dam flow thermal coupling model parameter sensitivity analysis construction method, is characterized in that, is specifically implemented according to the following steps: 步骤1:构建土石坝饱和-非饱和流热耦合模型,包括建立流动方程以及建立土石坝热量运移模型,用于描述土石坝内部渗流场与温度场的关系;Step 1: Build the saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of the earth-rock dam, including establishing the flow equation and establishing the heat transfer model of the earth-rock dam to describe the relationship between the internal seepage field and the temperature field of the earth-rock dam; 步骤2:对土石坝饱和-非饱和流热耦合模型设置边界条件,包括对渗流场设置边界条件以及温度场设置边界条件;Step 2: Set boundary conditions for the saturated-unsaturated flow thermal coupling model of the earth-rock dam, including setting boundary conditions for seepage field and temperature field; 步骤3:确定土石坝饱和-非饱和流热耦合模型的参数,选定其参数的范围;Step 3: Determine the parameters of the saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of the earth-rock dam, and select the range of its parameters; 步骤4:对选定的流热耦合模型参数范围进行样本抽样;Step 4: Sampling the selected parameter range of the flow-heat coupling model; 步骤5:将抽样得到的样本参数组分别代入构建的土石坝饱和-非饱和流热耦合模型中进行计算;Step 5: Substitute the sample parameter groups obtained by sampling into the constructed saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of the earth-rock dam for calculation; 步骤6:根据土石坝饱和-非饱和流热耦合模型的计算结果,求出土石坝模型中各监测点温度输出值的均值与方差。Step 6: According to the calculation results of the saturated-unsaturated flow-heat coupling model of the earth-rock dam, the mean and variance of the temperature output values of each monitoring point in the earth-rock dam model are obtained. 2.根据权利要求1所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述步骤1中建立的流动方程具体为土石坝饱和—非饱和瞬态渗流场,采用Richards方程进行描述:2. a kind of earth-rock dam flow-heat coupling model parameter sensitivity analysis construction method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the flow equation established in described step 1 is specifically earth-rock dam saturation-unsaturated transient seepage field, It is described by Richards equation: 式中:ρw为水的密度,Cm为土体容水度,g为重力加速度,Se为土体相对饱和度,Ss为弹性贮水率,为拉普拉斯算子,θ为土体含水率,Ks为土体饱和水力传导率,Kr(θ)为坝体非饱和带土体相对水力传导率,μ(T)为水的动力粘度,为温度的函数,μ(T)=0.00002414×10(247.8/(T+133.16)),p为压强,z为计算点位置高程,Qm为渗流场源汇项,T为温度。where ρ w is the density of water, C m is the water volume of the soil, g is the acceleration of gravity, Se is the relative saturation of the soil, S s is the elastic water storage rate, is the Laplace operator, θ is the soil moisture content, K s is the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil, K r (θ) is the relative hydraulic conductivity of the soil in the unsaturated zone of the dam body, and μ(T) is the water Dynamic viscosity is a function of temperature, μ(T)=0.00002414×10 (247.8/(T+133.16)) , p is the pressure, z is the elevation of the calculated point, Q m is the source-sink term of the seepage field, and T is the temperature. 3.根据权利要求2所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,步骤1中所述的土体含水率θ具体为:3. a kind of earth-rock dam flow-heat coupling model parameter sensitivity analysis construction method according to claim 2, is characterized in that, the soil moisture content θ described in step 1 is specifically: θ=θr+Sesr) (2);θ=θ r +S es −θ r ) (2); 其中,θr为残余含水率,θs为饱和含水率,α为水分特征曲线进气值的倒数,hp为压力水头,nv为水分特征曲线坡度的指示参数,通过拟合土体水分特征曲线得到,m为模型参数,m=1-1/nvAmong them, θ r is the residual water content, θ s is the saturated water content, α is the reciprocal of the air intake value of the moisture characteristic curve, h p is the pressure head, n v is the indicator parameter of the slope of the moisture characteristic curve, obtained by fitting the soil moisture characteristic curve, m is the model parameter, m=1-1/n v ; 步骤1中所述的土体容水度Cm具体为:The soil moisture content C m described in step 1 is specifically: 步骤1中所述的坝体非饱和带土体相对水力传导率Kr(θ)具体为:The relative hydraulic conductivity K r (θ) of the soil in the unsaturated zone of the dam body described in step 1 is specifically: 4.根据权利要求3所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述步骤1中的土石坝热量运移模型采用热对流传热方程描述,具体为:4. The method for parameter sensitivity analysis of an earth-rock dam flow-heat coupling model according to claim 3, wherein the heat transfer model of the earth-rock dam in the step 1 is described by a heat convection heat transfer equation, specifically: : 式中:ρeq为等效密度,ceq为等效比热容,T为温度,t为时间,λeq为等效导热系数,cw为水的比热容,DH为水动力弥散系数,u为水的平均流速,Qs为温度场源汇项。In the formula: ρ eq is the equivalent density, c eq is the equivalent specific heat capacity, T is the temperature, t is the time, λ eq is the equivalent thermal conductivity, c w is the specific heat capacity of water, DH is the hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient, and u is the The average flow rate of water, Q s is the source-sink term of the temperature field. 5.根据权利要求4所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述公式(6)中的水动力弥散系数DH具体为:5. a kind of earth-rock dam flow thermal coupling model parameter sensitivity analysis construction method according to claim 4, is characterized in that, the hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient D H in described formula (6) is specifically: DH=αT|v|δij+(αLT)vivj|v| (7)D HT |v|δ ij +(α LT )v i v j |v| (7) 式中,αT为横向弥散度,αL为纵向弥散度,vi为i方向流速矢量,δij为克里格常量,当i=j时为1,否则为0;|v|为流速矢量的大小;In the formula, α T is the transverse dispersion, α L is the longitudinal dispersion, v i is the flow velocity vector in the i direction, δ ij is the Kriging constant, when i = j, it is 1, otherwise it is 0; |v| is the flow velocity the size of the vector; 等效密度ρeq具体为:The equivalent density ρeq is specifically: ρeq=(1-n)ρs+θρw+(n-θ)ρg (8)ρ eq = (1-n)ρ s + θρ w +(n-θ)ρ g (8) 等效比热容ceq具体为:The equivalent specific heat capacity c eq is specifically: ceq=(1-n)cs+θcw+(n-θ)cg (9)c eq =(1-n)c s +θc w +(n-θ)c g (9) 其中,cw为水的比热容,ρw为水的密度,cs为坝体土体的比热容,ρs为坝体土体的密度,cg为空气的比热容,ρg为空气的密度,n为坝体土体的孔隙率,当处于饱和状态时,θ=n,方程(6)就是饱和含水层对流传热方程。Among them, c w is the specific heat capacity of water, ρ w is the density of water, c s is the specific heat capacity of the dam body soil, ρ s is the density of the dam body soil body, c g is the specific heat capacity of air, ρ g is the density of air, n is the porosity of the dam body. When it is in a saturated state, θ=n, and equation (6) is the convective heat transfer equation of the saturated aquifer. 6.根据权利要求1所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述步骤2具体为:6. a kind of earth-rock dam flow thermal coupling model parameter sensitivity analysis construction method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 2 is specifically: 对渗流场设置边界条件:上游坝体为定水头边界,水头为13.2m,坝面水头按其埋深呈线性变化;下游无水,下游边界为定水头边界,水头为0m;其他边界为零通量边界;Set the boundary conditions for the seepage field: the upstream dam is the boundary of constant water head, the water head is 13.2m, and the water head of the dam surface changes linearly according to its buried depth; there is no water in the downstream, the downstream boundary is the boundary of fixed water head, and the water head is 0m; other boundaries are zero flux boundary; 对温度场设置边界条件:Set boundary conditions on the temperature field: 库水面以下边界按库水温年变化选取,为:The boundary below the reservoir water surface is selected according to the annual change of reservoir water temperature, which is: 式中,y为库水位高程,单位为m,为月份;In the formula, y is the reservoir water level elevation, the unit is m, is month; 坝体底部边界为绝热边界;The bottom boundary of the dam body is an adiabatic boundary; 库水面以上边界与大气接触,具有季节波动性,按日平均气温取值,这里采用当地气温散点资料,由下式进行拟合:The boundary above the reservoir water surface is in contact with the atmosphere and has seasonal fluctuations. The value is taken according to the daily average temperature. Here, the local temperature scatter data is used, and the fitting is performed by the following formula: 式中,T0为年平均气温,l为傅里叶级数的阶数,l=1,2…,γ,Al和Bl为傅里叶级数的系数,L为周期;In the formula, T 0 is the annual average temperature, l is the order of the Fourier series, l=1,2...,γ, A l and B l are the coefficients of the Fourier series, and L is the period; 渗流场初始条件假设为压力水头为0m,温度场假设初始温度为年平均气温。The initial condition of the seepage field is assumed to be the pressure head of 0 m, and the initial temperature of the temperature field is assumed to be the annual average air temperature. 7.根据权利要求1所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述步骤3中确定土石坝流热耦合模型参数为:水力传导率Ks、饱和含水率θs、残余含水率θr、坝体土体的密度ρs、坝体土体的比热容cs、坝体土体的孔隙率n和等效导热系数λeq,然后根据土石坝相关设计规范及所选取的实际工程设计资料,确定上述7个参数的范围。7. The construction method for parameter sensitivity analysis of an earth-rock dam flow-heat coupling model according to claim 1, wherein the parameters of the earth-rock dam flow-heat coupling model determined in the step 3 are: hydraulic conductivity K s , saturation Water content θ s , residual water content θ r , density ρ s of dam body soil, specific heat capacity c s of dam body soil, porosity n of dam body and equivalent thermal conductivity λ eq , and then according to the correlation of earth-rock dam The design specification and the selected actual engineering design data determine the range of the above seven parameters. 8.根据权利要求1所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述步骤4具体为:8. a kind of earth-rock dam flow thermal coupling model parameter sensitivity analysis construction method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 4 is specifically: 步骤4.1,根据步骤3选定的7个参数,设模型输出函数y=f(x1,x2…,xk),含k个参数,k=7,结合各参数所服从的概率分布,将每个参数的变化范围映射到区间[0,1],并有预设的抽样水平p=k+1将其离散化,使每个参数只能从中取值,让k个参数都在p个抽样点上随机抽样一次,获得的向量表示为X=(x1,x2,…,xk);Step 4.1, according to the 7 parameters selected in step 3, set the model output function y=f( x 1 ,x 2 . Map the variation range of each parameter to the interval [0,1], and discretize it with a preset sampling level p=k+1, so that each parameter can only be value in, Let k parameters be randomly sampled once at p sampling points, and the obtained vector is expressed as X=(x 1 ,x 2 ,...,x k ); 步骤4.2,从多个向量X=(x1,x2,…,xk)中随机抽取一个向量作为输入参数“基值”向量,记为:然后从向量出发进行8次抽样,每次抽样都对中的一个或几个参数施加Δ的变化量,使抽样得到的向量中每相邻2个向量都只有1个参数发生Δ的变化量,并让这k个参数轮流变化一次,抽样得到的这个k+1个相邻向量被称为一条轨道。Step 4.2, randomly select a vector from multiple vectors X=(x 1 , x 2 ,...,x k ) as the input parameter "base value" vector, which is recorded as: then from the vector Set off for 8 sampling, each sampling is correct One or several of the parameters are applied with a change in Δ, so that the sampled vector For every two adjacent vectors, only one parameter changes by Δ, and the k parameters are changed in turn. The k+1 adjacent vectors obtained by sampling are called a track. 9.根据权利要求1所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述步骤5具体为:9. a kind of earth-rock dam flow thermal coupling model parameter sensitivity analysis construction method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 5 is specifically: 步骤5.1,在土石坝模型中设定监测温度输出值的监测点;Step 5.1, set the monitoring point for monitoring the temperature output value in the earth-rock dam model; 步骤5.2,将抽样得到的参数组依次代入土石坝流热耦合模型中进行计算;Step 5.2: Substitute the parameter groups obtained by sampling into the flow-heat coupling model of the earth-rock dam for calculation; 步骤5.3,整理各参数组计算得到各监测点温度输出值,并列表。Step 5.3, arrange each parameter group to calculate the temperature output value of each monitoring point, and list it. 10.根据权利要求1所述的一种土石坝流热耦合模型参数敏感性分析构建方法,其特征在于,所述步骤6具体为:10. The construction method for parameter sensitivity analysis of an earth-rock dam flow thermal coupling model according to claim 1, wherein the step 6 is specifically: 步骤6.1,根据整理计算得到各监测点温度输出值,计算各监测点模型计算输出的温度均值和方差,并列表;Step 6.1, obtain the temperature output value of each monitoring point according to the sorting and calculation, calculate the temperature mean value and variance of the calculated output of each monitoring point model, and list them; 步骤6.2,将得到的均值和方差取绝对值,绘制散点图,得到影响模型温度输出的主要和次要影响因子。Step 6.2, take the absolute value of the obtained mean and variance, draw a scatter plot, and obtain the main and secondary influencing factors that affect the temperature output of the model.
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Application publication date: 20190507