CN109697563A - A kind of power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning considering hidden failure - Google Patents
A kind of power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning considering hidden failure Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning for considering hidden failure.Step 1: establishing power information physics system Risk of Communication framework；Step 2: being directed to Risk of Communication, power information physics system Risk Propagation Model is constructed；Step 3: by influence of the analysis hidden failure to power information physics system, Risk of Communication of the classification processing hidden failure in power information physics system simultaneously carries out fusion treatment；Step 4: to find out system risk hypersensitivity node, carrying out ensureing early warning and adjustment to risk hypersensitivity node, so that power information physics system operates normally by analysis risk to the spacial influence of power information physics system.The present invention is by analysis risk to the spacial influence of power information physics system, influence of the hidden failure to Risk of Communication is analyzed, system risk hypersensitivity node is found out, analyzes influence of the Risk of Communication to each equipment of system, disclosure risks change procedure, instructs the development of Risk-warning measure.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the space Risk of Communication of power information physics system to calculate analysis field, and in particular to a kind of consideration
The power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning of hidden failure.
Background technique
In recent years, worldwide under the promotion of energy-saving and emission-reduction tide and information technology fast development, electric system
Deep change is occurring.It is stepped into mature period of expansion along with smart grid, electric system is on technical characteristic by Xiang Xinyi
It, will be to the evolution of energy internet on functional form for electric system evolution.Power grid and other energy, energy resource system and information system
System accelerates to merge with unprecedented big unification trend.
With the propulsion of electrified progress faster, new energy access, novel energy equipment extensive use, " great Yun object at high proportion
Move intelligence " technology deeply merges, radical change has occurred in physical characteristic, operational mode, the market pattern of traditional power grid, to
" extensive interconnection, intelligent interaction, flexibly flexibility, safely controllable " gradually changes.Realize above-mentioned target, advanced Information and Communication Technology
Introducing with merge it is particularly critical for electric system.Power information physics system is to melt information resources and electric system depth
Constituted novel system is closed, there is the adaptability for being significantly stronger than existing intelligent power system, flexibility, safety and reliable
Property.But it is also merged just because of information system and the height of electric system, so that this novel electric power of power information physics system
System operation with control complexity greatly enhance, to system it is reliable, be safely operated more stringent requirements are proposed.Existing rank
Section needs to carry out power information physics system risk investigation, establishes base for the large-scale engineering practice of power information physics system
Plinth.Since the risk of information system can travel to electric system, so that the normal operation of electric system is endangered, so being directed to the wind
The research of dangerous communication process is particularly necessary in power information physics system risk investigation.
Currently, for power information physics system Risk of Communication discussion also than relatively limited, power information physics system wind
It propagates still in its infancy danger.And existing research is all without analysing in depth hidden failure in power information physics system wind
Influence in the propagation of danger also couples connection without the Risk of Communication analysed in depth between each layer of power information physics system.
The shortcomings that prior art, is summarized as follows:
Prior art disadvantage 1: existing research is passed without the risk analysed in depth between each layer of power information physics system
Broadcast coupling connection.
Prior art disadvantage 2: existing research is all without hidden failure existing for in-depth analysis system to Risk of Communication
It influences.
Prior art disadvantage 3: existing research is all without analysing in depth influence of the Risk of Communication to each equipment of system
Summary of the invention
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the invention proposes a kind of power information physics system risks for considering hidden failure
It ensures method for early warning, comprehensively considers risk in different spaces and the characteristic of spatial, hidden failure existing for system is to wind
Influence of the influence and Risk of Communication nearly propagated to each equipment of system.
The present invention is directed to the characteristics of power information physics system, establishes the optimal model of system risk state propagation, asks
Solve inside Information Level, inside power communication layer, inside power layer, between Information Level and power communication layer, power layer and electric power it is logical
Believe the risk status propogator matrix between layer.Element in matrix respectively corresponds the wind of Information Level, power layer and power communication layer
Dangerous communication process.Simultaneously the present invention also based on inside Information Level inside, power communication layer, inside power layer, Information Level and electric power
5 class risk status propogator matrixes between communication layers, between power layer and power communication layer quantify dominant symbols and hidden failure
Power information physics system is influenced by the stabilization member state after risk；Finally, by analysis risk to power information
The spacial influence of physical system finds out system risk hypersensitivity node, carries out risk guarantee using risk hypersensitivity node
Early warning processing.
As shown in Figure 1, the technical solution adopted by the present invention includes the following steps:
Step 1: establishing power information physics system Risk of Communication framework；
Power information physics system Risk of Communication framework in the present invention is: in power information physics system, power layer,
Risk is propagated repeatedly between power communication layer and Information Level, causes failure constantly to adjacent, secondary adjacent elements and farther element
It propagates, the process for eventually leading to whole network wide-area failures is known as Risk of Communication.
Power information physics system is divided into three spaces, three spaces are respectively power layer, power communication layer, information
Layer.Information Level is connected with power communication layer, and power communication layer is connected with power layer；Power layer refers to polynary electric power networks；Electric power
Communication layers refer to power layer and the space that Information Level information is propagated；Information Level refers to sensing measurement information, external input information and
Space where control decision information.
The risk of Information Level can be to power communication Es-region propagations, and pass through power communication layer to electric power Es-region propagations.Similarly,
The risk of power layer can be to power communication Es-region propagations, and pass through power communication layer to information Es-region propagations.
According to the Risk of Communication of power information physics system, the Risk of Communication of the power information physics system can be divided into five
The Risk of Communication of a subsystem: the Risk of Communication of the first subsystem is the Risk of Communication inside Information Level, such as the event of information equipment
Barrier causes Information Level by security threat；The Risk of Communication of second subsystem is the Risk of Communication inside electricity layer, such as power layer
Failure caused by large area blackout；The Risk of Communication of third subsystem is the Risk of Communication inside power communication layer, such as
Propagation of the risk in power telecom network, eventually lead to information transmission delay rate inside power communication layer, packet loss it is continuous on
Rise the congestion with communication channel；The Risk of Communication of four subsystems is the Risk of Communication between power layer and power communication layer, such as
Power failure causes communication equipment to be paralysed；The Risk of Communication of 5th subsystem is that the risk between Information Level and power communication layer passes
It broadcasts, causes power communication layer information transmission delay rate constantly to rise as Information Level wrecks.
There are element in power information physics system, element refers to the equipment in Information Level, power layer and power communication layer,
Such as the generator of power layer, the data acquisition equipment of Information Level, router of power communication layer etc., it is power information physics
Each element of system.Regard an element as a node in model, node ordinal number be denoted as i (i=1,2 ..., n), n table
Show the node total number of power information physics system, the operating condition of period of the node when bearing risk is located at as node should
The risk status of period.
Risk of Communication used in the present invention analyzes meaning: risk be refer to that equipment, system may bear it is various not really
Determine factor, under the influence of uncertain factor, system, equipment are changed into failure operation from normal operation.Node is at a time
Operating condition can be located at by the node moment risk status indicate.In actual operation, the risk status of system can use 1
Or 0 indicate, wherein 1 indicate the system failure operation, 0 indicate system operate normally.Under the risk effect of certain unknown influence,
The initial launch situation of each node is it is known that can be indicated by 0 or 1.
But due to can only obtain the initial launch situation of each equipment of system under the effect of a certain risk, it can be determined that
When just having born the risk, each node of system is to be in normal operation or failure, but with the effect of the risk, system is each
The operating condition of a node can occur which type of variation be it is unknown, need to occur by each node of prediction system in future therefore
The probability of barrier, the node risk status predicted indicate a possibility that node at a time descends failure operation, with probability x
The probability failure that x is inscribed in (x≤1) expression, the i.e. node at this.So power information physics system wind in the present invention
Danger propagation judgement, which refers to, to be judged in the case where a certain risk acts on, and each node of system is in the situation of change of the probability of failure operation.
Step 2: being directed to Risk of Communication, power information physics system Risk Propagation Model is constructed；
The Stochastic Dynamic Process of Risk Propagation Model description of the invention are as follows: the risk status of previous moment element can be with
Probability of failure propagation, which influences next moment therewith, has the element of physics and logical connection, it is made to become failure from normal operation
Operation, so that risk status be made constantly to propagate to the adjacent element with physics and logical connection.According to the known previous moment
The risk status and probability of failure propagation of element can simulate the element risk status for obtaining any time.
S2, successively construct inside Information Level, inside power communication layer, inside power layer, Information Level and power communication layer it
Between and 5 class subsystems between power layer and power communication layer risk status propogator matrix:
For every a kind of risk status propogator matrix, it is all made of following manner foundation:
S21, assume that a certain subsystem shares n node, Risk of Communication time T is equidistantly divided into m period, each
, that is, there is m risk status and propagate, each node is a certain when bearing risk in the corresponding risk state propagation of a period
The operating condition of period is located at the risk status of the period as node: risk status is 0 expression node normal operation,
Risk status indicates that the node failure is unable to run for 1；Risk status is that x indicates that the node has the probability of x can operation troubles；When
The risk status of a certain node be 1, i.e., failure when, can to surrounding normal run node have an impact, the risk of system node
State is in variation in different time periods it is considered that risk status variation of the system node under not homogeneous Risk of Communication number.
In the case of there is connectivity between the two nodes, the node i that risk status is 1 is 0 to risk status
Another node j has an impact, then there are risk status communication processes between node；There are connectivity to refer to two between two nodes
There are physics and logical connection for node.
S22, subsystem node state be expressed as si (t), si (t)Indicate that node i is in the period of the t times Risk of Communication
Under risk status, t indicate the period ordinal number, m indicate the period sum, i.e., Risk of Communication sum；
S23, the failure operation for calculating the period lower node i in the t times Risk of Communication make next be in the t+1 times
The period lower node j of Risk of Communication is by normally becoming the probability of failure propagation p of failure operationijSuch as following formula:
Wherein, si (t)Indicate that node i is in the risk status under the period of the t times Risk of Communication, sj (t+1)Indicate node
J is in the risk status under the period of the t+1 times Risk of Communication, and P { } is indicated when node i is in the t times Risk of Communication
Between risk status under section be 1, node j be under the premise of the risk status under the period of the t time Risk of Communication is 0, is saved
Point j is in the event that the risk status under the period of the t+1 times Risk of Communication is 1, event occurrence rate pij, i.e., failure pass
Broadcast probability；
The matrix being made of again the probability of failure propagation between each node and its node with connectivity is as risk
State propagation matrix P, is denoted as P=(pij)n×n；
The solution of S3, risk status propogator matrix:
The present invention is in the m Risk of Communication period, i.e. m Risk of Communication, so that actual risk status and theoretical meter
The error sum of squares of obtained risk status vector reaches minimum criterion, establishes optimal model, obtains more accurate
Risk status propogator matrix P.
The risk status propogator matrix of actually adjacent period is not fully identical, S(t)With S(t) between P there is always
Error reaches the smallest criterion according to error sum of squares f (P) and establishes model, so that a risk status propogator matrix is with regard to equivalent
The Risk of Communication of m Risk of Communication period of quantization influences.
S31, the optimal model for establishing such as following formula:
s.t.{pij>=0, i, j=1,2 ..., n
Wherein, S(t)It is the system risk state vector under the period in the t times Risk of Communication,
S(t)=(s1 (t), s2 (t), s3 (t)..., sn (t)), si (t)I-th of node of expression system is in the t times Risk of Communication
Period under node state, t=1,2 ..., m；F (P) indicates vector S(t)With S(t)The square-error of each element between P
With, ' indicate vector transposition, i.e. vector S(t+1)-S(t)The transposed vector of P；
The above are the building of the risk status propogator matrix of a subsystem, the risk status propogator matrixes of 5 class subsystems
The building of aforesaid way step is all made of to complete.
In the present invention, all there is corresponding risk status propogator matrix in 5 class Risk of Communication processes, as shown in Figure 2.Information Level
Have a (i=1,2 ..., a) a node, then in the risk status propogator matrix that Information Level internal risks are propagated, pij(i=1,
2,...,a；J=1,2 ..., a) indicate information layer information exchange, embody the venture influence of Information Level.Power communication layer has b (i
=1,2 ..., b) a node, then in the risk status propogator matrix that power communication layer internal risks are propagated, pij(i=1,
2,...,b；J=1,2 ..., b) indicate power communication layer information exchange, embody power communication layer venture influence.Power layer has
C (i=1,2 ..., c) a node, then in the risk status propogator matrix that power layer internal risks are propagated, pij(i=1,
2,...,c；J=1,2 ..., c) indicate electric power layer information exchange, embody the venture influence of power layer；Information Level have d (i=1,
2 ..., d) a node of d (i=1,2 ..., d) of a node and power communication layer carries out information transmission.Then in Information Level and electricity
Power communicates in the risk status propogator matrix of the Risk of Communication of interlayer, pij(i=1,2 ..., d；J=1,2 ..., d) indicate letter
Cease the information exchange of layer and power communication layer；Power communication layer have a node of e (i=1,2 ..., e) and power layer e (i=1,
2 ..., e) a node carries out information transmission.Then the risk status of the Risk of Communication between power layer and power communication layer is propagated
In matrix, pij(i=1,2 ..., e；J=1,2 ..., e) indicate power communication layer and power layer information exchange.
The relationship of period and Risk of Communication in the present invention: the time intervals such as this Risk of Communication process are divided, each
Period is denoted as a Risk of Communication, i.e., the risk status of system node is in variation in different time periods it is considered that system node
Risk status variation under not homogeneous Risk of Communication number.
Risk state propagation of the present invention refers to: node is from risk status si (t), after j Risk of Communication, risk
State change is si (t+j), this process be referred to as risk status propagation.
S32, according to historical risk data, inside Information Level, inside power communication layer, inside power layer, power layer and
Between power communication layer, between Information Level and power communication layer, passed using each secondary risk of subsystem each in historical risk data
System risk state vector and each subsystem after broadcasting bear the known initial risks state vector S of risk(0)It solves optimal
Change model, obtains five class subsystems respective risk status propogator matrix P during Risk of Communication, wherein S(0)=(s1 (0), s2 (0), s3 (0)..., sn (0))si (0)(i=1,2 ..., n) represents the initial risks state of i-th of node in subsystem, i.e. node i
There is si (0)Probability break down；
Through the above steps, then 5 class risk status propogator matrixes under each particular risk can be in the hope of.Each
Particular risk all can generate a specific initial risks state to each element, and the initial risks state of each element constitutes
The initial risks state vector of subsystem.To which the initial risks state vector of each subsystem corresponds to a subsystem
Risk status propogator matrix.
Above-mentioned 5 class risk status propogator matrix has embodied a concentrated reflection of power information physics system Risk of Communication process.Random layer
It is propagated by risk toward any direction, the analysis of Risk of Communication can be carried out based on corresponding risk status propogator matrix.Example
Such as: if risk comes from Information Level, and being propagated toward power communication layer and power layer, then matrix required for calculating is followed successively by
Inside Information Level, between Information Level and power communication layer, inside power communication layer, between power layer and power communication layer, electric power
Layer is internal.If risk comes from power communication layer, and is propagated toward power layer, then matrix required for calculating is followed successively by electric power
Inside communication layers, between power layer and power communication layer, inside power layer.
Step 3: the influence by analysis hidden failure to power information physics system, classification processing hidden failure is in electricity
Risk of Communication in force information physical system simultaneously carries out fusion treatment
For in operation under normal circumstances, the unconspicuous function of element fault is known as latent function, latent function
Failure is hidden failure.As long as accident does not occur, hidden failure is will not to be embodied.The harm of hidden failure is very big, is easy
Quadratic loss occurs, causes the great person and the damage of equipment.
The present invention, which is added, considers hidden failure probability of happening parameter to consider the harm of hidden failure, occurred by considering and
Two kinds of situations of hidden failure do not occur, more detailed analysis and judgement have been carried out to the stable state of each node after Risk of Communication
Processing.
The third step specifically:
Assuming that be up to hidden failure occurs for an element while each dominant symbols occurs.In a certain risk
Under effect, the risk status of system constantly changes by risk status propogator matrix.To each time and its later risk
Propagation is divided into two classes, i.e. after hidden failure occurs for element j, how risk, which is propagated, does not occur hidden failure with element j, and how is risk
It propagates.
The particular element of hidden failure may occur known to the present invention, i.e., which the known element that hidden failure may occur is
A element, but it is unaware of the time that hidden failure occurs for element.Before really hidden failure occurs for element, it need to be obtained by prediction
Risk probability.
In kth time Risk of Communication, in the case of hidden failure occurs for element j, the risk status of element j is by sj (k)Become 1,
It is expressed as element j and 100% probability failure of element in the case of hidden failure occurs.
3.1) in the known possible element j that hidden failure occurs, in the following ways to including hidden failure
The carry out calculation processing of element:
S=(1-a) S2+aS1
Wherein, S1 indicates the stabilization risk shape of system in the case that hidden failure occurs for element j in kth time Risk of Communication
State vector, S2 indicate that the stabilization risk state vector of system in the case of hidden failure does not occur for element j, and it is hidden that a indicates that element j occurs
Property failure probability, S indicate consider hidden failure possibility occurrence system stabilization risk state vector；
Stabilization risk the state vector S1 and S2 of above-mentioned two system are all made of following manner processing and obtain, but system
By element in the risk status vector obtained after -1 Risk of Communication of kth during the processing acquisition of stable risk state vector S1
The risk status of j is set as 1, initial risks state vector when as kth time Risk of Communication:
3.1.1 it) is calculated using the data that the risk status of all elements under any known historical risk is constituted and obtains 5 classes
The risk status propogator matrix P of systemi；
3.1.2) a certain future risk effect under, after Risk of Communication each time, according to risk starting where layer and
Risk of Communication sequence, in conjunction with the initial risks state of node ID and each node in each layer, successively risk of selection is passed
The risk status propogator matrix of involved subsystem in broadcasting substitutes into successively continuous phase and takes the system wind after last Risk of Communication
Dangerous state vector obtains system risk state vector after previous Risk of Communication, is embodied as:
S(k)=S(k-1)·Pk
Wherein, k indicates the secondary ordinal number of Risk of Communication, S(k)System risk state vector after indicating kth time Risk of Communication, S(k-1)System risk state vector after indicating -1 Risk of Communication of kth, PkIndicate each involved in kth time Risk of Communication
The risk status propogator matrix of subsystem；
For example, Information Level through power communication layer to electric power Es-region propagations, the wind of subsystems involved in Risk of Communication
Dangerous state propagation matrix includes inside Information Level, between Information Level and power communication layer, inside power communication layer, power communication
Between layer and power layer, the risk status propogator matrix inside power layer, total five risk status propogator matrixes are successively multiplied.
3.1.3) constantly repeat the above steps 3.1.1)~3.1.2) process, until the risk shape of power information physics system
State vector reaches stable state, i.e., no longer generates new failure node, and failure node refers to the non-zero node of risk status, each to save
Dotted state does not change, then Risk of Communication terminates, and the risk status vector of power information physics system is as constant wind at this time
Dangerous state vector.
The system that the present invention acts on the different risk status propagation times of lower power information physics system using historical risk
Risk status and optimal model, acquire 5 class risk status propogator matrix P of power information physics system, and matrix P is characterized
In system inside Information Level, inside power communication layer, inside power layer, between Information Level and power communication layer, power layer and electricity
Each node influences the state of remaining node between power communication layers.
Step 4: by analysis risk to the spacial influence of power information physics system, it is high sensitive to find out system risk
Property node, risk hypersensitivity node is carried out to ensure early warning and adjustment, so that power information physics system operates normally.
In second and third described step, the Risk of Communication process of power information physics system is by system hidden failure, self space
Structure and the extraneous influence for bearing risk, and there is certain uncertainty.The each node state of system is propagated by risk status
Matrix, Risk of Communication number and initial risks state indicate that initial risks state is during certain Risk of Communication jointly
It is known that risk status propogator matrix by system determine also be it is known that each node by the state change process after risk to wind
Dangerous propagation times are X-axis, risk status is that Y-axis establishes two dimension view expression, and disclosure risks the influence propagated to system node.
In 4th step, the risk status of each node is no longer changed, i.e., no longer generates new failure node, then recognize
Terminate for complete Risk of Communication process, wherein if after Risk of Communication process, a certain node from initial risks state be 0
Developing into risk status after Risk of Communication at least once is x, and the risk status x of the node is that Risk of Communication process terminates
Maximum value in the risk status of all nodes afterwards, then the node is the risk hypersensitivity node of system, high to risk sensitive
Property node carry out Risk-warning and take in time increase redundance unit, timing maintenance etc. measures, to guarantee system and node just
Often operation.
The present invention applies to fault propagation process in power information physics system, based on optimal model to power information
The Risk of Communication mechanism of physical system is studied, comprehensively consider inside the Information Level of risk, inside power communication layer, Information Level
Communication process between power communication layer, between power layer and power communication layer, quantifies the influence of hidden failure, Detailed simulation
The risk evolutionary process of power information physics system solves the power information physics system Risk of Communication for considering hidden failure
Evolution problem, and it is based on this, it finds risk hypersensitivity node, solves power information physics system risk guarantee early warning and ask
Topic.
Risk status propogator matrix proposed by the present invention is empty by the structure of power information physics system itself and each network
Between inner link and determine, not by external condition and man's activity, and to have fully demonstrated Information Level internal, electric for the matrix
Information inside power communication layers, inside power layer, between Information Level and power communication layer, between power layer and power communication layer is handed over
Mutually, influence of the risk status of a node to another node state, which is all quantified as corresponding failure in matrix, influences probability,
The propagation path that can quantify power information physics system network structure and risk, disclosure risks change procedure.
Obtained risk status propogator matrix the present invention is based on optimal model is determined by its own structure, is passed through
The system risk that the matrix obtains, which propagates evolutionary process, can effectively reflect risk hypersensitivity node, instruct node risk
Ensure the development of Forewarning Measures.
Power information physics system risk refers in power information physics system because extraneous factor acts in the present invention
Corresponding equipment perhaps equipment itself break down this failure and cause Information Level, power communication layer, one of power layer or
Multiple equipment breaks down, and is unable to operate normally.
It is acted in power information physics system in a certain risk, the influence which can generate is unknown, can be first with
The power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning proposed by the present invention for considering hidden failure, judges power information department of physics
Risk hypersensitivity node in system, so that the information of these risk hypersensitivity nodes is conveyed to always by communication device
Console, console issue corresponding control instruction, and corresponding control equipment is instructed to take protection to risk hypersensitivity node
Measure, the normal operation of safeguards system
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
The present invention is directed to the characteristics of power information physics system, establishes the power information physics system wind for considering hidden failure
Dangerous structure of international communication constructs the Risk Propagation Model for considering hidden failure, solves risk status using optimal model and propagates square
Battle array.The Risk Propagation Model is from the system structure of power information physics system itself, it is contemplated that the mechanism of transmission of risk, with
Simulate the failure evolution process of power information physics system.The present invention solves the characteristic of Risk of Communication, hidden failure passes risk
The problems such as impact analysis for broadcasting, Risk-warning.
Risk status propogator matrix proposed by the present invention by inside Information Level, inside power communication layer, inside power layer, letter
It ceases the inner link of the structure and each network between layer and power communication layer, between power layer and power communication layer and determines,
Not by external condition and man's activity.Influence of the risk status of one node to another node state can be obtained specifically
Corresponding failure influences probability in matrix, obtains dominant and hidden failure to power information physics system by the member after risk
The influence of part stable state obtains the propagation path of power information physics system network structure and risk, and disclosure risks variation
Process.
The present invention, to the spacial influence of power information physics system, analyzes hidden failure to Risk of Communication by analysis risk
Influence, find out system risk hypersensitivity node, analyze influence of the Risk of Communication to each equipment of system, can accurately carry out risk
It ensures Forewarning Measures, guarantees the safe operation of power information physics system.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the invention.
Fig. 2 is 5 class risk status propogator matrix explanatory diagrams of the invention.
Fig. 3 is the power information physics system structure chart that the present invention uses.
Fig. 4 is the Risk of Communication figure of the node 1,2,3 in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is the Risk of Communication figure of the node 4,5,6 in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 6 is the Risk of Communication figure of the node 7,8,9,10 in the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Present invention will be further explained below with reference to the attached drawings and examples.
The embodiment and its implementation process implemented according to summary of the invention complete method of the present invention are as follows:
Step 1: the power information physics system model that building is as shown in Figure 3, which includes 10 nodes altogether, wherein 4
A information node, 2 communication nodes, 4 power nodes, interior joint r1With node r6Configuration information-power communication layer, node
r5With node r10Constitute electric power-power communication layer.
Step 2: in a certain extraneous risks Risk1Under effect, the node initial risks state of power information physics system is
R0=(1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0), after six Risk of Communication, power information physics system state keeps stablizing, section
The risk status variation of point is as shown in table 1.It can based on the Risk of Communication process having occurred and that and risk status propagation model
To find out 5 class risk status propogator matrix P of the system1.Similarly, in extraneous risks Risk2Under effect, R0=(1,0,1,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0) node initial risks state and each secondary spread state is it is known that can be in the hope of 5 class risk shapes under such risk
State propogator matrix P2.According to any historical risk Riski, 5 class risk status propogator matrix PiIt can be calculated
System risk state (Risk under 1 Risk of Communication of table1)
Step 3: assuming in the 3rd Risk of Communication, hidden failure occurs for power node 7, and the state mutation of node 7 is
1.It is that Y-axis establishes Risk of Communication schematic diagram using Risk of Communication number as X-axis, risk status, after hidden failure occurs, wind each time
The state of each node of system after the propagation of danger, i.e. Risk of Communication evolution diagram, as shown in Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6.By Fig. 4, Fig. 5 and Fig. 6
It is found that in system by the risk from Information Level and power layer and there are when hidden failure, the probability of malfunction of all nodes
It is all significantly improved compared to the case where not considering hidden failure.
Since hidden failure probability of happening parameter is 0.2, the system stable state in the case of two kinds has been acquired, can be in the hope of
The steady-state distribution vector of finally each node is obtained, as shown in table 2.Consider that the harm of hidden failure makes power information in Risk of Communication
The predicted state for the node that physical system Risk Propagation Model obtains is more accurate.
The system risk state of the consideration hidden failure of table 2
Step 4: state is obviously high by Fig. 4, Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 it is found that node 4,7,8,9 is after preceding Risk of Communication several times
In other nodes, i.e. node 4,7,8,9 is risk hypersensitivity node, needs to guarantee opening in time for the node Risk-warning measure
Exhibition.
The present invention studies the Risk of Communication mechanism of power information physics system, comprehensively consider in the space of risk and
The influence of communication process and hidden failure across space simulates the risk evolutionary process of power information physics system, passes through risk
The system risk that state propagation matrix obtains, which propagates evolutionary process, can effectively reflect risk hypersensitivity node, guidance section
The development of point Risk-warning measure, has certain feasibility and practicability.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning for considering hidden failure, it is characterised in that:
Step 1: establishing power information physics system Risk of Communication framework；
Power information physics system is divided into three spaces, three spaces are respectively power layer, power communication layer, Information Level, letter
Breath layer is connected with power communication layer, and power communication layer is connected with power layer；According to the Risk of Communication of power information physics system, institute
The Risk of Communication for stating power information physics system can be divided into the Risk of Communication of five subsystems: the Risk of Communication of the first subsystem is
Risk of Communication inside Information Level；The Risk of Communication of second subsystem is the Risk of Communication inside electricity layer；Third subsystem
Risk of Communication is the Risk of Communication inside power communication layer；The Risk of Communication of four subsystems be power layer and power communication layer it
Between Risk of Communication；The Risk of Communication of 5th subsystem is the Risk of Communication between Information Level and power communication layer；Power information
There is element in physical system, element refers to the equipment in Information Level, power layer and power communication layer, and an element is as mould
A node in type, node ordinal number is denoted as i, and (i=1,2 ..., n), n indicates the node total number of power information physics system, section
The operating condition of period of the point when bearing risk is located at the risk status of the period as node；
Step 2: being directed to Risk of Communication, power information physics system Risk Propagation Model is constructed；
S2, successively construct Information Level inside, inside power communication layer, inside power layer, between Information Level and power communication layer with
And the risk status propogator matrix of 5 class subsystems between power layer and power communication layer:
For every a kind of risk status propogator matrix, it is all made of following manner foundation:
S21, assume that a certain subsystem shares n node, the Risk of Communication time, T was equidistantly divided into m period, each when
Between the corresponding risk state propagation of section, that is, there is m risk status propagation, each node when bearing risk sometime
The operating condition of section is located at the risk status of the period as node: risk status is 0 expression node normal operation, risk
State indicates that the node failure is unable to run for 1；
S22, subsystem node state be expressed as si (t), si (t)Indicate that node i was under the period of the t times Risk of Communication
Risk status, t indicate that the ordinal number of period, m indicate period sum, i.e. Risk of Communication sum；
S23, the failure operation for calculating the period lower node i in the t times Risk of Communication make next to be in the t+1 times risk
The period lower node j of propagation is by normally becoming the probability of failure propagation p of failure operationijSuch as following formula:
pij=P { sj (t+1)=1 | si (t)=1, sj (t)=0 }
Wherein, si (t)Indicate that node i is in the risk status under the period of the t times Risk of Communication, sj (t+1)Indicate that node j is in
Risk status under the period of the t+1 times Risk of Communication, P { } were indicated under the period that node i is in the t times Risk of Communication
Risk status be 1, node j be in the risk status under the period of the t times Risk of Communication be 0 under the premise of, node j is in
The event that risk status under the period of the t+1 times Risk of Communication is 1, event occurrence rate pij, i.e. probability of failure propagation；
The matrix being made of again the probability of failure propagation between each node and its node with connectivity is as risk status
Propogator matrix P is denoted as P=(pij)n×n；
The solution of S3, risk status propogator matrix:
S31, the optimal model for establishing such as following formula:
s.t.{pij>=0, i, j=1,2 ..., n
Wherein, S(t)It is the system risk state vector under the period in the t times Risk of Communication, S(t)=(s1 (t),s2 (t),s3 (t),…,sn (t)), si (t)I-th of node of expression system is in the node state under the period of the t times Risk of Communication, t=1,
2,…,m；F (P) indicates vector S(t)With S(t)The error sum of squares of each element between P, ' indicate vector transposition, i.e. vector S(t +1)-S(t)The transposed vector of P；
S32, according to historical risk data, utilize the system risk after each secondary Risk of Communication of subsystem each in historical risk data
State vector and each subsystem bear the known initial risks state vector S of risk(0)Optimal model is solved, obtains five
Class subsystem respective risk status propogator matrix P during Risk of Communication, wherein S(0)=(s1 (0),s2 (0),s3 (0),…,sn (0)), si (0)(i=1,2 ..., n) represents the initial risks state of i-th of node in subsystem, i.e. node i has si (0)Probability
It breaks down；
Step 3: the influence by analysis hidden failure to power information physics system, classification processing hidden failure are believed in electric power
It ceases the Risk of Communication in physical system and carries out fusion treatment；
Step 4: by analysis risk to the spacial influence of power information physics system, to find out system risk hypersensitivity section
Point carries out risk hypersensitivity node to ensure early warning and adjustment, so that power information physics system operates normally.
2. a kind of power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning for considering hidden failure according to claim 1,
It is characterized by:
The third step specifically:
3.1) in the known possible element j that hidden failure occurs, in the following ways to including hidden failure element
Carry out calculation processing:
S=(1-a) S2+aS1
Wherein, S1 indicate the stabilization risk status of system in the case that hidden failure occurs for element j in kth time Risk of Communication to
It measures, S2 indicates that the stabilization risk state vector of system in the case of hidden failure does not occur for element j, and a indicates that recessive event occurs for element j
The probability of barrier, S indicate to consider the stabilization risk state vector of the system of hidden failure possibility occurrence；
Stabilization risk the state vector S1 and S2 of above-mentioned two system are all made of following manner processing and obtain, but the stabilization of system
By element j in the risk status vector obtained after -1 Risk of Communication of kth during the processing acquisition of risk status vector S1
Risk status is set as 1, initial risks state vector when as kth time Risk of Communication:
3.1.1 it) is calculated using the data that the risk status of all elements under any known historical risk is constituted and obtains 5 class subsystems
Risk status propogator matrix Pi；
3.1.2) after Risk of Communication each time, layer and Risk of Communication sequence where risk starting, in conjunction in each layer
Node ID and each node initial risks state, successively risk of selection propagate in involved subsystem risk status
Propogator matrix substitutes into successively continuous phase and takes the system risk state vector after last Risk of Communication, obtains and work as previous risk
System risk state vector after propagation, is embodied as:
S(k)=S(k-1)·Pk
Wherein, k indicates the secondary ordinal number of Risk of Communication, S(k)System risk state vector after indicating kth time Risk of Communication, S(k-1)
System risk state vector after indicating -1 Risk of Communication of kth, PkIndicate each subsystem involved in kth time Risk of Communication
The risk status propogator matrix of system；
3.1.3) constantly repeat the above steps 3.1.1)~3.1.2) process, until power information physics system risk status to
Amount reaches stable state, i.e., no longer generates new failure node, failure node refers to the non-zero node of risk status, each node shape
State does not change, then Risk of Communication terminates, and the risk status vector of power information physics system, which is used as, at this time stablizes risk shape
State vector.
3. a kind of power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning for considering hidden failure according to claim 1,
It is characterized by:
In second and third described step, each node state of system is by risk status propogator matrix, Risk of Communication number and initial risks
State indicates that each node is X-axis, risk status Y to Risk of Communication number by the state change process after risk jointly
Axis establishes two dimension view expression.
4. a kind of power information physics system risk guarantee method for early warning for considering hidden failure according to claim 1,
It is characterized by:
In 4th step, the risk status of each node is no longer changed, i.e., no longer generates new failure node, then it is assumed that complete
Dangerous communication process of rectifying the incorrect style of work terminates, wherein if a certain node passes through from initial risks state for 0 after Risk of Communication process
Develop into after Risk of Communication at least once risk status be x, and the risk status x of the node for Risk of Communication process after institute
There is the maximum value in the risk status of node, then the node is the risk hypersensitivity node of system, to risk hypersensitivity section
Point carries out Risk-warning and takes to increase the measures such as redundance unit, timing maintenance in time, to guarantee the normal fortune of system and node
Row.
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