CN109672170A - A kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure and system - Google Patents
A kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN109672170A CN109672170A CN201811452529.1A CN201811452529A CN109672170A CN 109672170 A CN109672170 A CN 109672170A CN 201811452529 A CN201811452529 A CN 201811452529A CN 109672170 A CN109672170 A CN 109672170A
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of regional power grid reserve index system construction methods.The method includes: to obtain regional power grid operation data；Based on the regional power grid reserve index system constructed in advance, network system reserve is carried out according to the regional power grid operation data and leaves and takes calculating, obtains spare leaving and taking evaluation data；According to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data, to regional power grid configuration spare capacity and spare abundant intensity assess.Technical solution provided by the invention considers the demand of power grid difference regulation scene under Spatial dimensionality, constructs regional power grid reserve index system, can be used for instructing the spare calculating and assessment left and taken of power grid, is conducive to ensure network system reliability of operation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to operation and control of electric power system fields, and in particular to a kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure
And system.
Background technique
Actual motion system must there are certain active reserve capacities, to ensure the power supply reliability of electric system.Respectively
Regional power grid will generally run it is spare be divided into that load is spare and emergency duty, and it is standby according to operation state of generator to be divided into rotation
With with it is non-rotating spare, in addition, partial region power grid is also brought load side resource into the spare management of operation, and define negative
Lotus side resource participates in running the spare response time.Each power grid mechanism under Power Market, for participant in the market into
The considerations of row operative constraint, each operator wrap to the specific requirement highlighted when spare classification to the performance of backup power source is run
Include response time, adjustment speed, ancillary service type etc..
Currently, occurring extensive intermittent new energy in power grid also among continuous development about spare research
Permeability is constantly soaring, large capacity extra-high voltage direct-current drop point is intensive, and flexible load gradually participates in the new features such as power grid interaction operation,
Great change has occurred in reserve resource and the power-balance feature of power grid.To ensure the due reliability water of electric system
Flat to need to configure certain spare capacity, how much proportional the height of reliability and the spare capacity of configuration be.If mentioned
The security reliability of high system, it is necessary to increase investment, configure more spare capacities, so spare capacity it is reserved number with
Reliability requirement set by system is closely related, and therefore, spare effect is the reliability level of maintenance system, constructs a set of
Can reaction system reliability level index be determining spare capacity premise, but at present reliability index assessment cycle it is longer,
The index of single dimension can not measure the abundance of active reserve capacity comprehensively.
Summary of the invention
Reserve appearance can not be measured comprehensively for the index of traditional reliability index assessment cycle longer, single dimension
Amount it is abundance the deficiencies of, the present invention proposes a kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure, this method meter and different regulation fields
The effect that reserve is played under scape considers the demand of reserve under different regulation scenes, from time dimension, Spatial Dimension
Construct active reserve capacity evaluation index.
Present invention provide the technical scheme that
A kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure, comprising:
Obtain regional power grid operation data；
Based on the regional power grid reserve index system constructed in advance, electricity is carried out according to the regional power grid operation data
Net system reserve leaves and takes calculating, obtains spare leaving and taking evaluation data；
According to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data, to regional power grid configuration spare capacity and spare abundant intensity comment
Estimate；
Wherein, the spare index system of electric network active includes: the objective layered left and taken and calculated spare to network system
Index；
The regional power grid operation data includes: generating set operation data and historical data, direct current transportation operation data
With historical data and demand history data.
Preferably, the building of the regional power grid reserve index system includes:
Based on the application direction of regional power grid reserve, multiple target index is determined, and by the multiple target target setting
For first class index；
Based on the space requirement of regional power grid reserve, building junior's index is layered to first class index respectively；Described one
Grade index, junior's index of the first class index construct the spare index system of forming region electric network active jointly；
The first class index includes: to calculate class index and assessment class index.
The further space requirement based on regional power grid reserve, is layered building junior to first class index respectively
Index includes:
By frequency modulation performance index, reserve reliability index, zonal reserve deficiency index and the abundant index of zonal reserve
It is set as calculating the two-level index of class index；
By zonal reserve deficiency index, the abundant index of zonal reserve and share spare target setting be assess class index two
Grade index；
Under each two-level index, the three-level index under the two-level index is determined according to respective key feature.
Further, the construction method of the regional power grid reserve index system further include:
Regional power grid reserve Adaptability Analysis and regional power grid reserve based on convectional reliability index when
Between development process demand, determine the time scale of three-level index.
Further, the three-level index of the frequency modulation performance index includes: primary frequency modulation performance index and frequency modulation frequency modulation
It can index；
The primary frequency modulation performance index is the rotation under the short-term time scale for ensureing the requirement of electric system primary frequency modulation performance
Turn spare capacity, meet following formula:
PSRIα≥PGmax-(50-fmin)×B×Psys
Wherein, PSRIαFor the spinning reserve capacity under short-term time scale, α is the short-term time scale of setting, PGmaxFor N-1 event
Maximum power caused by hindering is lost, and B is regional power grid frequency response coefficient, PsysFor system load capacity, fminFor regional power grid
Minimum safe frequency；
The frequency modulation frequency modulation performance indicator is the spare capacity met under the short-term time scale of disturbance control standard requirement, full
Foot formula:
PRα≥Ploss
Wherein, PRαThe spare capacity under short-term time scale to meet disturbance control standard requirement, PlossFor in region most
Big power supply is lost.
Further, maximum power supply loses P in the regionlossIt is determined by following formula as follows:
Wherein, ACEAFor the ACE value for disturbing forefoot area, ACEMWhen disturbance to set after regional power grid disturbance event restores
The maximum value of interior ACE, RiRecovery rate after catastrophe failure occurs for control zone, ACE are as follows: area control error.
Further, the three-level index of the reserve reliability index includes: LOLP load-loss probability and EDNS electricity
The expectation of power deficiency；
Wherein, the LOLP load-loss probability is calculated as follows:
In formula, LOLPαFor the unbalanced power risk probability of system in short-term time scale,For the load power of t moment,For that can use generated output in t moment short-term time scale, α is the short-term time scale of setting；
The EDNS electric power deficiency expectation is calculated as follows:
In formula, ENDSαSystem can be less than workload demand with power generation capacity in short-term time scale after occurring for accident or disturbance
Desired value.
Further, the three-level index of the zonal reserve deficiency index includes: subregion loss of load probability, subregion electric power
Insufficient desired value and the maximum spare vacancy of subregion；
Wherein, the subregion loss of load probability is calculated as follows:
In formula, LOLPA(PR10A) it is subregion A loss of load probability, PR10AFor subregion A available backup capacity, PXAFor subregion A
Grid power amount of unbalance, h (PXAi) it be subregion A imbalance power is PXAiExact method；
The subregion expected loss of load is calculated as follows:
In formula, ENDSAFor subregion A expected loss of load, n is partition power grid A malfunction quantity；
The maximum spare vacancy of the subregion, is calculated as follows:
Zonal reserve maximum vacancy=partition requirements are spare-zonal reserve capacity.
Further, the three-level index of the abundant index of the zonal reserve includes: that zonal reserve capacity adequacy degree, subregion are standby
With the expectation of capacity redundancy and subregion minimum standby redundancy.
Further, the zonal reserve capacity adequacy degree is calculated by following formula:
Wherein, ARPA(PR10A) it is zonal reserve abundant intensity, PR10AFor subregion A available backup capacity, PXAFor subregion A power grid
Electric power amount of unbalance, h (PXAi) it be subregion A imbalance power is PXAiExact method, hSC(PXAi) be using super short period load and
The imbalance power that new energy prediction result calculates is PXAiProbability, NsfFor abundance sampling number spare in statistical time range, N∑For
Sampling sum in statistical time range.
Further, the zonal reserve capacity redundancy is desired for the desired value of region standby redundancy electricity, by following formula meter
It calculates:
Wherein, PR10AFor subregion A available backup capacity, h (PXAi) it be subregion A imbalance power is PXAiExact method, n
For partition power grid A malfunction quantity.
Further, the subregion minimum standby redundancy, is calculated by following formula:
Minimal redundancy is spare between subregion=and zonal reserve capacity-partition requirements are spare.
Further, the three-level index for sharing spare index includes: partition balancing probability, subregion power transmission probability, divides
The expectation of area's power transmission, subregion it is expected by electric probability and subregion by electricity；
Wherein, the partition balancing probability is calculated by following formula:
BAPP=partition balancing sampling number/total sampling number
In formula, BAPP is partition balancing probability；
The subregion power transmission probability is calculated by following formula:
EAPP=subregion power transmission sampling number/total sampling number
In formula, EAPP is subregion power transmission probability；
The subregion power transmission expectation is calculated by following formula:
In formula, PEPEIt is expected for subregion power transmission,It is X to send out electric poweriExact method；
The subregion is calculated by electric probability by following formula:
PIAP=subregion is by electric sampling number/total sampling number
In formula, PIAP is subregion by electric probability；
The subregion is calculated by electricity expectation by following formula:
In formula, PEPIIt is expected for subregion by electricity,For by into electric power XiExact method.
Further, the short-term time scale α value includes: 1 minute, 10 minutes or 30 minutes.
A kind of regional power grid reserve assessment system characterized by comprising
Data acquisition module, for obtaining regional power grid operation data；
Evaluation module is used for according to regional power grid operation data, based on the regional power grid reserve index constructed in advance
System carries out network system reserve and leaves and takes calculating, obtains spare leaving and taking evaluation data；And spare evaluation is left and taken according to described
Data assess the spare capacity and spare abundant intensity of regional power grid configuration.
The evaluation module includes: evaluation index system unit, computing unit and assessment unit；
The evaluation index system unit refers to for establishing the objective layered calculated of leaving and taking spare to network system
Mark；
The computing unit is transported for being based on objective layered index according to the regional power grid of data acquisition module output
Row data carry out network system reserve and leave and take calculating, obtain spare leaving and taking evaluation data；
The assessment unit, for according to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data, to regional power grid configuration spare capacity and
Spare abundant intensity is assessed.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the benefit that
The present invention provides a kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure, obtains regional power grid operation data；Based on preparatory
The regional power grid reserve index system of building carries out network system reserve according to the regional power grid operation data and stays
Calculating is taken, obtains spare leaving and taking evaluation data；According to the spare spare capacity leaving and taking evaluation data, being configured to regional power grid
It is assessed with spare abundant intensity；Wherein, the spare index system of electric network active includes: that leave and take spare to network system calculates
Objective layered index；The regional power grid operation data includes: generating set operation data and historical data, direct current transportation
Operation data and historical data and demand history data.Technical solution building regional power grid reserve provided by the invention is more
Target hierarchy index system, and according to the spare amount of leaving and taking of grid operation data calculating power grid, it assesses the whole network and zonal reserve stays
The amount of trying to please, spare abundant intensity whether meet demand.
Technical solution provided by the invention can be used for instructing the spare calculating and assessment left and taken of power grid, be conducive to ensure power grid
System reliability of operation.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure flow chart of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the active reserve capacity index system schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is a kind of regional power grid reserve assessment system structural schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
For a better understanding of the present invention, the present invention is made further specifically with example with reference to the accompanying drawings of the specification
It is bright.Obviously, described embodiment is a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.
A kind of regional power grid reserve index system construction method proposed by the present invention considers that convectional reliability index exists
The applicability that regional power grid reserve calculates is mentioned on the basis of the stand-by requirement of power grid difference regulation scene under different dimensions
Meet all kinds of indexs that stand-by requirement calculated and assessed spare calculated result out, so that reserve index system is constructed, to electricity
Net system reserve, which is left and taken and evaluated, provides calculation method.
Embodiment 1:
Regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure provided in an embodiment of the present invention, specific implementation process is as shown in Figure 1, packet
It includes:
S101: regional power grid operation data is obtained；
S102: based on the regional power grid reserve index system constructed in advance, according to the regional power grid operation data
It carries out network system reserve and leaves and takes calculating, obtain spare leaving and taking evaluation data；
S103: according to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data, to regional power grid configuration spare capacity and spare abundant intensity into
Row assessment.
Specifically, including following content:
Step S102: it based on the regional power grid reserve index system constructed in advance, is run according to the regional power grid
Data carry out network system reserve and leave and take calculating, obtain it is spare leave and take evaluation data, it is specific as follows:
Step S102-1, convectional reliability index are applied to the applicability analysis of different type reserve assessment: tradition
The size of reliability index is directly related with the size of system active reserve capacity, however active reserve capacity referred herein refers to
System can use the difference of power generation capacity and system loading, both include 10 minutes spare capacities, also include 30 minutes spare capacities, 60 points
The active reserve capacity of clock spare capacity and 60 minutes or more, therefore, these indexs cannot inhomogeneities directly in characterization system
Type spare capacity whether meet demand.It is characterized in particular in the following aspects:
1) search time scale is different
Convectional reliability index is commonly used in the long-term running mean reliability of electric system, and time scale is usually with year
Unit.By taking spinning reserve as an example, spinning reserve capacity is the unbalanced power problem for quick stabilizing system emerged in operation,
It usually recalls within ten minutes, what is influenced is system short-term operational reliability.Therefore, it when assessing spare capacity, needs
Time-constrain is subject to the definition of reliability index, such as the load-loss probability in 10 minutes, the electric power in 10 minutes insufficient phase
Prestige value；
2) reliability model of unit is different
Element failure rate model used in traditional reliability assessment is the average value of long history statistics, and rotates
It is spare, 30 minutes it is spare, 60 minutes or more it is spare be the operational reliability solved the problems, such as in system certain time, it is used
Reliability model is instantaneous state probabilistic model, and is influenced by conditions various when running, of both doing
Processing: first is that needing when the calculating of unit forced outage probability, i.e. calculating active reserve capacity using unit instantaneous state probability
Model；Second is that influence of the service condition to system fault probability, especially direct current system state probability calculate；Third is that with interval
Property new energy access accounting increase, for intermittent new energy power output model need count and prediction deviation influence；
In conclusion convectional reliability evaluation index can be used for assessing the abundance of active reserve capacity, still, when with
When it assesses spare capacity, the time scale assessed reliability index is needed to use restraint, it is clearly general for 10 minutes mistake loads
Rate, 10 minutes expected loss of load etc., calculating related reliability model of unit to index should be using meter and service condition
Instantaneous state probabilistic model, also, increase the consideration uncertain to the new energy such as wind-powered electricity generation power output when index calculates；
Step S102-2 sets up reserve index building dimension based on different regulation scenes:
On the one hand regulation scene is the process developed from the time, i.e., for time scale；It on the other hand is from spare sky
Between for demand, i.e. the sum of zonal reserve is spare not less than the whole network, and zonal reserve meets itself stand-by requirement:
1) time scale
When system is unbalance due to the factors emergent power such as load fluctuation or equipment fault, generator can be in the effect of governor
Lower automatic adjustment output power stabilizes this Partial Power, often completes in tens seconds.After preventing frequency from changing, system meeting
Call a part of generator by adjusting its active power, so that system frequency be made to be restored to planned value, it will usually 10 automatically
It is completed within minute.After system frequency is restored, in order to make the quick unit that adjusts can continue to cope with the function of lower subsystem
Rate is unbalance, needs to adjust unit at a slow speed by other and regulating power of these units is replaced out, and generally 30 minutes；
Power grid is spare from time dimension experienced three phases, i.e., 1 minute it is spare, 10 minutes it is spare, 30 minutes it is spare；
2) Spatial Dimension
Regional internet, extra-high voltage alternating current-direct current transmission of electricity are the main patterns of power grid future development, and each bulk power grid in China is at present
National interconnection is realized, East China, south, northeast, northwest, 5, North China-Central China synchronised grids have been primarily formed.Due to direct current
Transmission line capability is big, will to the power-balance of power grid when the catastrophic failures initiation direct current system forced outage such as direct current locking occurs
It will cause serious impact, especially for the regional power grid of some direct current drop point Relatively centralizeds, or even be faced with while losing more
Return the risk of direct current.When serious electric power deficiency occurs in a certain region, spare support can be provided by other regions, this part is spare
As share spare, sharing spare makes system reliability be increased dramatically；
From Spatial Dimension it is spare can be divided into spare the whole network, zonal reserve, share it is spare；
Step S102-3, the analysis of combining step S102-1 and step S102-2, based on answering for regional power grid reserve
With direction, multiple target index is determined, and be first class index by the multiple target target setting；First class index includes: to calculate class to refer to
Mark and assessment class index；Building junior's index is layered to first class index respectively；The junior of the first class index, the first class index
Index constructs the spare index system of forming region electric network active jointly；
Step S102-4, frequency modulation performance index, reserve reliability index, zonal reserve deficiency index and subregion is standby
It is the two-level index for calculating class index with abundant target setting；By zonal reserve deficiency index, the abundant index of zonal reserve and it is total to
Enjoying spare target setting is the two-level index for assessing class index；Under each two-level index, determined according to respective key feature
Three-level index under the two-level index, the index system schematic diagram is as shown in Fig. 2, specific as follows:
1) frequency modulation performance index
Ensure that power system frequency stabilization is spare one of main function, it is instantaneous that spare capacity should be more than or equal to system
Spare capacity needs, and regional power grid frequency modulation frequency modulation performance constraints should be met, therefore electric system primary frequency modulation performance refers to
Mark and frequency modulation frequency modulation performance indicator be measure it is spare whether Chong Zu important evaluation index.
In general, regional power grid primary frequency modulation requires after single equipment fault disturbance or accident occur for power grid, it is only sharp
System actual frequency can be restored within the scope of quasi-steady state frequency departure with the effect of the primary frequency modulation of electric system, to guarantee to be
The normal operation of system frequency modulation frequency modulation.The action time of primary frequency modulation usually required that within 1 minute.
To ensure primary frequency modulation performance requirement, then instantaneous stand-by capacity should meet the following conditions in system:
In formula:
PGmaxIt is lost for maximum power caused by N-1 failure；PSR1Held by the instantaneous stand-by that primary frequency modulation effect recalls
Amount；B is regional power grid frequency response coefficient；PsysFor system load capacity；fminFor the minimum safe frequency of regional power grid, take
Value is regional power grid quasi-steady state frequency limit.
For the requirement for meeting regional power grid quasi-steady state frequency, instantaneous spinning reserve capacity should meet the following conditions:
PSR1≥PGmax-(50-fmin)×B×Psys (2)
In view of primary frequency modulation action time is shorter and 10 minutes spinning reserves make the displacement of Primary frequency control ability
With 10 minutes spinning reserve capacity P in systemSR10It should meet
PSR10≥PGmax-(50-fmin)×B×Psys (3)
Frequency modulation frequency modulation performance requirement generally uses control zone frequency to control standard (control performance
Standard, CPS), but the standard can not obtain being distinctly claimed spare capacity.Disturbance control standard (disturbance
Control standard, DCS) for the spare response of control zone operation in the case of evaluation accident, as under normal circumstances
The supplement of CPS evaluation criterion encourages the Emergency Assistance in the case of the accident of control zone, accelerates system frequency and restores.DCS is by control
Recovery rate R after catastrophe failure, which occurs, for area indicates.Ordinary accident recovery time was calculated with evaluation cycle 10 minutes after accident.
Area control error (Area Control Error, ACE) before disturbance if algebraic value less than 0, must disturb it is extensive
In the multiple phase, by ACE value control to the value before disturbance, it may be assumed that
In formula, PlossTo disturb the power lost；ACEAFor the ACE for disturbing forefoot area；ACEMFor disturbance after in 10 minutes
The maximum value of ACE.If recovery rate R=100%, illustrate that the spare response of the control zone meets the requirements and performed effectively net
State ACE instruction is transferred, the ACE of control zone is made at least to be restored to the value before disturbance.
The ACE algebraic value of preceding control zone is disturbed if it is greater than or equal to 0, must within disturbance convalescence, by ACE value control to 0,
That is:
DCS can be used to judge the spare demand that whether can satisfy system frequency recovery of the operation an of control zone, and
And disturbance event capacity (refer to event capacity) in DCS standard and disturbance recovery time to the response speed of reserve with
Capacity proposition clearly requires, and usually requires that disturbance recovery time is 10min in the current regional power grid in China, with reference to event capacity
Usually consider that maximum power supply loses scarce P in regionloss, therefore, it should meet to meet DCS standard 10min spare capacity:
PR10≥Ploss (6)
2) reserve reliability index
10 minutes standby reliability indexs
LOLP1010 minutes systems can be less than the probability of workload demand with power generation capacity after refering in particular to accident or disturbance generation, use
In the unbalanced power risk probability for measuring system in 10 minutes.
In formula,For the load power of t moment；For generated output can be used in t moment 10 minutes.
Under conditions of meter and wind power integration,By wind power, conventional power unit generated output and 10 minutes reserves
It collectively forms, it may be assumed that
In formula,For the power output of conventional power unit t moment；For 10 minutes spare capacities of t moment；For t moment
Wind power output.
In generation schedule compilation process a few days ago, the unit output of t moment, wind power output all exist not really in one day future
Qualitative factor considers the influence of wind-powered electricity generation prediction deviation and direct current locking and generating set forced outage:
In formula,It contributes for the plan of conventional power unit t moment；To be drawn by direct current locking and generating set forced outage
The unbalanced power amount risen；Power output is predicted for the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment；For wind-powered electricity generation prediction deviation.
In formula,For predicted load；For load prediction deviation.
Due to the effect of operation plan, the predicted load of system should be equal to power generation plan value and wind power prediction value
The sum of, it may be assumed that
EDNS1010 minutes systems can use desired value of the capacity less than workload demand that generate electricity after self-explanatory characters' event or disturbance occur, and use
In the severity for measuring unbalanced power:
30 minutes standby reliability indexs
LOLP30The probability of workload demand can be less than with power generation capacity by refering in particular to 30 minutes systems after successive failure occurs, and be used for
Measure the unbalanced power risk probability of system in 30 minutes.
In formula:For generated output can be used in t moment 30 minutes.
Under conditions of meter and wind power integration,By wind power, conventional power unit generated output and 30 minutes reserves
It collectively forms, it may be assumed that
In formula:For 30 minutes spare capacities of t moment；
In generation schedule compilation process a few days ago, the unit output of t moment, wind power output all exist not really in one day future
Qualitative factor considers the influence of wind-powered electricity generation prediction deviation and direct current locking and generating set forced outage:
In formula:For the unbalanced power amount as caused by successive failure；
Meter and load prediction deviation, then LOLP30It can indicate are as follows:
Due to the effect of operation plan, the predicted load of system should be equal to power generation plan value and wind power prediction value
The sum of, it may be assumed that
EDNS30Refer to that 30 minutes systems can be less than the desired value of workload demand with power generation capacity after successive failure occurs, and be used for
Measure the severity of unbalanced power.
3) zonal reserve deficiency index
By the probability of systematic absence electricity, expectation, the maximum value of scarce reserve level the safety of electricity generation system described.
If certain subregion deficiency index is bigger than normal, and its congestion situations is serious, can be using the reserve level or enlarging area increased inside region
Domain interconnection two schemes, Lai Tigao system reliability of operation.
Partition power grid loss of load probability refers to due to caused by the factors such as failure, load prediction deviation, wind-powered electricity generation prediction deviation
Partition power grid electric power amount of unbalance is greater than the probability of available power generation capacity, can be calculated by formula.
Due to regional internet and spare shared mechanism, partition power grid electric power amount of unbalance needs to consider the shadow of area's external power grid
It rings, one side local area power grid carries out power to external fault subregion and supports caused available power generation capacity reduction, on the other hand
It is under the conditions of large disturbances occur for local area, perimeter is available to share spare support.
Subregion expected loss of load refers to be divided due to caused by the factors such as failure, load prediction deviation, wind-powered electricity generation prediction deviation
Area's grid power amount of unbalance is greater than the desired value of available power generation capacity, can be calculated by formula.
In formula, PR10AFor subregion A available backup capacity；PXAFor subregion A grid power amount of unbalance.h(PXAi)For subregion A
Imbalance power is PXAiExact method；N is partition power grid A malfunction quantity.It can carry out estimation area power failure damage with this
It loses, unit MW.
The spare vacancy of subregion maximum (when to take no account of spare support between subregion, the maximum value of each zonal reserve vacancy, if
The spare capacity of the subregion increases LOLA, max, can make the subregion outside no area in the case where spare support, abundant intensity
Reach 100% (error is the convergence precision of selection of sampling), unit MW.
4) the abundant index of zonal reserve
The economy of electricity generation system is described by the minimum value of the probability of system redundancy electricity, expectation, redundancy electricity.It fills
Nargin is bigger, illustrates that system is more reliable, but redundancy expectation and redundancy minimum value can also be made to increase accordingly, reduces the warp of system
Ji property.The reasonability of the spare distribution in each region is described using Clogging indicator.
In the configuration of spare capacity a few days ago, the index can be made based on historical forecast data and estimate,
In real-time status evaluation stage (rear assessment), the index is calculated in real time using ultra-short term prediction data.
In formula: hsc(PXAi) it be using the imbalance power that super short period load and new energy prediction result calculate is PXAiIt is general
Rate.
Real time phase also need to standby configuration effect carry out after assess, using Realtime Statistics to the index into
Row calculates in real time.
ARPA(PR10A)=Nsf/NΣ (27)
In formula: NsfFor abundance sampling number spare in statistical time range；NΣFor the sampling sum in statistical time range.
Zonal reserve capacity redundancy expectation (Area Electrical Expectation Supplied, AEES) refers to area
The desired value of domain standby redundancy electricity, can be expressed as follows with formula
Subregion minimum standby redundancy (Minimum Area Surplus of Generator, SOGA, min) is to take no account of
Between subregion when spare support, the minimum value of subregion standby redundancy.Reliability index meets the subregion of limit value requirement, if standby
When with capacity reduction SOGA, min, the reliability index that not will cause the subregion is out-of-limit, if reducing spare capacity is greater than SOGA,
When min, the abundant intensity in the region is reduced, unit MW.
5) spare shared index
Spare shared index is assessed after being used for, and does not calculate the index in the standby configuration stage a few days ago.If all subregion
To meet stand-by requirement, then all areas are equilibrium area.Subregion is that the probability of equilibrium area is known as dividing in all sample modes
Area's equilibrium probability (Balance Area Probability, BAPP).
BAPP=partition balancing sampling number/total sampling number (29)
For subregion there are when spare deficiency, the subregion for providing spare support is known as power transmission area.All sample mode neutrons
Region is that the probability in power transmission area is known as subregion power transmission probability (Export Area Probability, EAPP).
EAPP=subregion power transmission sampling number/total sampling number (30)
Subregion power transmission expectation (Expected Power of Export, PEPE) refers to due to other subregion electric power not
Foot, what which provided shares spare electric power desired value.
P in formulaEAPiIt is X to send out electric poweriExact method.
When subregion is there are when spare deficiency, which is known as by electric area.Subregion is by electric area in sample mode
Probability is known as subregion by electric probability (Import Area Probability, PIAP).
PIAP=subregion is by electric sampling number/total sampling number (32)
Subregion referred to by electricity expectation (Expected Power of Import, PEPI) since subregion electric power is insufficient, from
Other subregions by into electric power desired value, i.e. the shared reserve level that uses of region.
P in formulaIAPiFor by into electric power XiExact method.
Embodiment 2:
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a kind of regional power grid reserve assessment systems, as shown in figure 3,
The system comprises:
Data acquisition module, for obtaining regional power grid operation data；
Evaluation module is used for according to regional power grid operation data, based on the regional power grid reserve index constructed in advance
System carries out network system reserve and leaves and takes calculating, obtains spare leaving and taking evaluation data；And spare evaluation is left and taken according to described
Data assess the spare capacity and spare abundant intensity of regional power grid configuration.
The evaluation module includes: evaluation index system unit, computing unit and assessment unit；
The evaluation index system unit refers to for establishing the objective layered calculated of leaving and taking spare to network system
Mark；
The computing unit is transported for being based on objective layered index according to the regional power grid of data acquisition module output
Row data carry out network system reserve and leave and take calculating, obtain spare leaving and taking evaluation data；
The assessment unit, for according to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data, to regional power grid configuration spare capacity and
Spare abundant intensity is assessed.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the application, which can be used in one or more,
The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces
The form of product.
The application is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions
The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs
Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates,
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
The above is only the embodiment of the present invention, are not intended to restrict the invention, all in the spirit and principles in the present invention
Within, any modification, equivalent substitution, improvement and etc. done, be all contained in apply pending scope of the presently claimed invention it
It is interior.
Claims (16)
1. a kind of regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure characterized by comprising
Obtain regional power grid operation data；
Based on the regional power grid reserve index system constructed in advance, power grid system is carried out according to the regional power grid operation data
System reserve leaves and takes calculating, obtains spare leaving and taking evaluation data；
According to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data, to regional power grid configuration spare capacity and spare abundant intensity assess；
Wherein, the spare index system of electric network active includes: the objective layered index left and taken and calculated spare to network system；
The regional power grid operation data includes: generating set operation data and historical data, direct current transportation operation data and goes through
History data and demand history data.
2. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the regional power grid is active
The building of spare index system includes:
Based on the application direction of regional power grid reserve, multiple target index is determined, and be one by the multiple target target setting
Grade index；
Based on the space requirement of regional power grid reserve, building junior's index is layered to first class index respectively；The level-one refers to
It marks, junior's index of the first class index constructs the spare index system of forming region electric network active jointly；
The first class index includes: to calculate class index and assessment class index.
3. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 2, which is characterized in that described to be based on regional power grid
The space requirement of reserve, being layered building junior's index to first class index respectively includes:
By frequency modulation performance index, reserve reliability index, zonal reserve deficiency index and the abundant target setting of zonal reserve
For the two-level index for calculating class index；
By zonal reserve deficiency index, the abundant index of zonal reserve and share spare target setting be assess class index second level refer to
Mark；
Under each two-level index, the three-level index under the two-level index is determined according to respective key feature.
4. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 3, which is characterized in that the regional power grid is active
The construction method of spare index system further include:
The time of regional power grid reserve Adaptability Analysis and regional power grid reserve based on convectional reliability index is sent out
Process requirements are opened up, determine the time scale of three-level index.
5. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 3, which is characterized in that
The three-level index of the frequency modulation performance index includes: primary frequency modulation performance index and frequency modulation frequency modulation performance indicator；
The primary frequency modulation performance index is that the rotation under the short-term time scale for ensureing the requirement of electric system primary frequency modulation performance is standby
With capacity, meet following formula:
PSRIα≥PGmax-(50-fmin)×B×Psys
Wherein, PSRIαFor the spinning reserve capacity under short-term time scale, α is the short-term time scale of setting, PGmaxDraw for N-1 failure
The maximum power risen is lost, and B is regional power grid frequency response coefficient, PsysFor system load capacity, fminMost for regional power grid
Small safety frequency；
The frequency modulation frequency modulation performance indicator is the spare capacity met under the short-term time scale of disturbance control standard requirement, under satisfaction
Formula:
PRα≥Ploss
Wherein, PRαThe spare capacity under short-term time scale to meet disturbance control standard requirement, PlossFor electricity maximum in region
It loses in source.
6. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 5, which is characterized in that
Maximum power supply loses P in the regionlossIt is determined by following formula as follows:
Wherein, ACEAFor the ACE value for disturbing forefoot area, ACEMFor in disturbance recovery time for being set after regional power grid disturbance event
The maximum value of ACE, RiRecovery rate after catastrophe failure occurs for control zone, ACE are as follows: area control error.
7. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 3, which is characterized in that
The three-level index of the reserve reliability index includes: LOLP load-loss probability and the expectation of EDNS electric power deficiency；
Wherein, the LOLP load-loss probability is calculated as follows:
In formula, LOLPαFor the unbalanced power risk probability of system in short-term time scale,For the load power of t moment,For
Generated output can be used in t moment short-term time scale, α is the short-term time scale of setting；
The EDNS electric power deficiency expectation is calculated as follows:
In formula, ENDSαSystem can be less than the expectation of workload demand with power generation capacity in short-term time scale after occurring for accident or disturbance
Value.
8. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 3, which is characterized in that the zonal reserve is insufficient
The three-level index of index includes: the maximum spare vacancy of subregion loss of load probability, subregion expected loss of load and subregion；
Wherein, the subregion loss of load probability is calculated as follows:
In formula, LOLPA(PR10A) it is subregion A loss of load probability, PR10AFor subregion A available backup capacity, PXAFor subregion A power grid
Electric power amount of unbalance, h (PXAi) it be subregion A imbalance power is PXAiExact method；
The subregion expected loss of load is calculated as follows:
In formula, ENDSAFor subregion A expected loss of load, n is partition power grid A malfunction quantity；
The maximum spare vacancy of the subregion, is calculated as follows:
Zonal reserve maximum vacancy=partition requirements are spare-zonal reserve capacity.
9. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 4, which is characterized in that the zonal reserve is abundant
The three-level index of index includes: zonal reserve capacity adequacy degree, the expectation of zonal reserve capacity redundancy and subregion minimum standby redundancy.
10. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 9, which is characterized in that
The zonal reserve capacity adequacy degree is calculated by following formula:
Wherein, ARPA(PR10A) it is zonal reserve abundant intensity, PR10AFor subregion A available backup capacity, PXAFor subregion A grid power
Amount of unbalance, h (PXAi) it be subregion A imbalance power is PXAiExact method, hSC(PXAi) it is to utilize super short period load and new energy
The imbalance power that source prediction result calculates is PXAiProbability, NsfFor abundance sampling number spare in statistical time range, N∑For statistics
Sampling sum in period.
11. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 9, which is characterized in that the zonal reserve holds
Amount redundancy is desired for the desired value of region standby redundancy electricity, is calculated by following formula:
Wherein, PR10AFor subregion A available backup capacity, h (PXAi) it be subregion A imbalance power is PXAiExact method, n be point
Area's power grid A malfunction quantity.
12. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 9, which is characterized in that the subregion minimum is standby
With redundancy, calculated by following formula:
Minimal redundancy is spare between subregion=and zonal reserve capacity-partition requirements are spare.
13. regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure according to claim 4, which is characterized in that described to share spare finger
Target three-level index include: partition balancing probability, subregion power transmission probability, the expectation of subregion power transmission, subregion by electric probability and subregion by
Electricity expectation；
Wherein, the partition balancing probability is calculated by following formula:
BAPP=partition balancing sampling number/total sampling number
In formula, BAPP is partition balancing probability；
The subregion power transmission probability is calculated by following formula:
EAPP=subregion power transmission sampling number/total sampling number
In formula, EAPP is subregion power transmission probability；
The subregion power transmission expectation is calculated by following formula:
In formula, PEPEIt is expected for subregion power transmission,It is X to send out electric poweriExact method；
The subregion is calculated by electric probability by following formula:
PIAP=subregion is by electric sampling number/total sampling number
In formula, PIAP is subregion by electric probability；
The subregion is calculated by electricity expectation by following formula:
In formula, PEPIIt is expected for subregion by electricity,For by into electric power XiExact method.
14. according to claim 5 and regional power grid reserve appraisal procedure as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that described short
Time scale α value includes: 1 minute, 10 minutes or 30 minutes.
15. a kind of regional power grid reserve assessment system characterized by comprising
Data acquisition module, for obtaining regional power grid operation data；
Evaluation module, for according to regional power grid operation data, based on the regional power grid reserve index system constructed in advance,
It carries out network system reserve and leaves and takes calculating, obtain spare leaving and taking evaluation data；And according to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data,
The spare capacity and spare abundant intensity of regional power grid configuration are assessed.
16. a kind of regional power grid reserve assessment system according to claim 15, which is characterized in that the evaluation module packet
It includes: evaluation index system unit, computing unit and assessment unit；
The evaluation index system unit spare to network system leaves and takes the objective layered index calculated for establishing；
The computing unit runs number according to the regional power grid of data acquisition module output for being based on objective layered index
According to carrying out network system reserve and leave and take calculating, obtain spare leaving and taking evaluation data；
The assessment unit, for according to it is described it is spare leave and take evaluation data, to the spare capacity and spare of regional power grid configuration
Abundant intensity is assessed.
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