CN109636164B - Human factor safety evaluation method and device for industrial system and storage medium - Google Patents
Human factor safety evaluation method and device for industrial system and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a human factor safety evaluation method for an industrial system, which comprises the steps of obtaining a plurality of human behavior factors and organization data from a system state model, analyzing the influence of the human behavior factors by combining the organization data to obtain related human behavior factors corresponding to the organization data, and finally evaluating the human factor safety of target people by using the related human behavior factors after the organization data is analyzed. Since the organization factor is considered when evaluating the human factor safety of the target personnel, the organization factor has a great influence on the human factor safety and the safety of the nuclear power plant. Therefore, the method for evaluating the human factor safety by considering the organization factors has higher evaluation accuracy rate and ensures the personal safety of target personnel in the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station. In addition, the embodiment of the invention also discloses a human factor safety evaluation device, equipment and a storage medium for the industrial system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of nuclear power, in particular to a human factor safety assessment method and device for an industrial system and a storage medium.
Background
The operation safety of the nuclear power plant comprises equipment operation safety and human factor safety, a great deal of research is carried out on the equipment operation safety, and with the occurrence of a series of nuclear energy industrial accidents, the human factor safety is the key of the importance of the accident sequence and the contribution of human and system interaction to risks in the total risks. However, any individual error and error defense countermeasures are implemented under the management of an organization, the organization runs through or controls a human-computer system where the individual is located, and the organization error may not only cause a direct threat to the safety of the system, but also erode the equipment reliability and the human factor reliability of the system for a long time, weaken the defense function of the system and finally cause an accident. All variables influencing the industrial system can be regarded as organization factors, all the organization factors which bring negative influence on the safety of the nuclear power station can be called organization risks, and the organization risks can be transmitted to a technical system of the nuclear power station through a human-computer interface.
At present, the human factor safety of the nuclear power plant is mainly based on human factor reliability analysis, the human factor reliability analysis method mainly considers human factor errors of individuals, and often is evaluation of specific operation of an individual operator in a control room, namely, the operator is used as a single individual to evaluate the operation of the individual operator so as to achieve the basis of safety evaluation of the nuclear power plant. The human factor reliability analysis is to count the human factor error probability, and mainly to give a basic human factor error probability and then use the human behavior forming factor to adjust the human factor error probability. In practice, however, people are used as a member of the organization, and organization factors such as organization arrangement, organization training, organization structure and the like also have a great influence on the human factor safety and the safety of the nuclear power plant. Therefore, when the method for analyzing the human factor reliability only based on the individual human factor is used for evaluating the human factor safety of the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station, the evaluation accuracy is low, and the safety of equipment and personnel in the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station cannot be guaranteed.
Therefore, how to accurately evaluate the human factor reliability of the nuclear power plant to ensure the safety of equipment and personnel in the nuclear power plant and the safe operation of the nuclear power plant is a problem to be solved by technical personnel in the field.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a human factor safety assessment method, a human factor safety assessment device and a storage medium for an industrial system, which are used for accurately assessing the human factor safety of a nuclear power station and ensuring the personal safety of workers in the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the embodiment of the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
first, the present invention provides a human factor safety evaluation method for an industrial system, comprising:
acquiring a plurality of personnel behavior factors and organization data in a system state model corresponding to an industrial system;
analyzing the influence of each personnel behavior factor according to the organization data in the system state model to obtain related personnel behavior factors corresponding to the organization data;
and carrying out factor safety evaluation on target personnel in the industrial system by utilizing the related personnel behavior factors.
Optionally, the human behavior factor includes: processing time corresponding to a target accident in the industrial system by the target person and data of influence of operation organization on the person in the target accident by the target person.
Optionally, the organizing data in the system state model includes: training level data of the target person in the system state model, organizational structure data in the system state model, and organizational plan data in the system state model.
Optionally, the analyzing the influence of each human behavior factor according to the organization data in the system state model to obtain the relevant human behavior factor corresponding to the organization data includes:
calculating a correlation coefficient between the treatment time of the target person and data of the person's exposure to an operational organization using the training level data, the organizational structure data, and the organization plan data;
if the correlation coefficient meets the preset requirement, generating a first standard normal variable corresponding to the processing time in the behavior factor of the correlation person and a second standard normal variable corresponding to the data of the person influenced by the operation organization;
determining a first discrete probability density function according to the processing time and the first standard normal variable, and determining a second discrete probability density function according to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization and the second standard normal variable;
determining a joint probability of the processing time and the data of the person affected by the operational organization using the first discrete probability function and the second discrete density function;
and if the joint probability meets a preset condition, taking the processing time of the target person and the data of the person influenced by the operation organization as the behavior factors of the relevant person.
Optionally, the performing human factor safety evaluation on the target person in the industrial system by using the relevant person behavior factor includes:
determining the types of standard personnel behavior factors in the related personnel behavior factors;
respectively calculating the behavior failure probability of the target person causing behavior failure due to various standard person behavior factors;
superposing the behavior failure probabilities to obtain a superposition failure probability value;
and carrying out factor safety evaluation on the target personnel by utilizing the superposition failure probability value.
Second, an embodiment of the present invention provides a human factor safety evaluation device for an industrial system, including:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a storage module and a processing module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring a plurality of personnel behavior factors and organization data in a system state model corresponding to an industrial system;
the analysis module is used for carrying out influence analysis on each personnel behavior factor according to the organization data in the system state model to obtain relevant personnel behavior factors corresponding to the organization data;
and the evaluation module is used for carrying out factor safety evaluation on target personnel in the industrial system by utilizing the related personnel behavior factors.
Optionally, the personnel behavior factor in the obtaining module includes: processing time corresponding to a target accident in the industrial system by the target personnel and data of influence of operation organization on personnel in the target accident by the target personnel; organizing data in the analysis module includes: training level data of the target person in the system state model, organizational structure data in the system state model, and organizational plan data in the system state model;
correspondingly, the analysis module comprises:
a first determination unit for calculating a correlation coefficient between the processing time of the target person and data on influence of the person on an operation organization using the training level data, the organization structure data, and the organization arrangement data; if the correlation coefficient meets the preset requirement, entering a generating unit;
the generation unit is used for generating a first standard normal variable corresponding to the processing time in the related personnel behavior factors and a second standard normal variable corresponding to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization;
a second determining unit, configured to determine a first discrete probability density function according to the processing time and the first standard normal variable, and determine a second discrete probability density function according to data that the person is affected by the operation organization and the second standard normal variable;
a third determination unit for determining a joint probability of the processing time and the data of the person affected by the operational organization using the first discrete probability function and the second discrete density function; and if the joint probability meets a preset condition, taking the processing time of the target personnel and the data of the personnel influenced by the operation organization as the behavior factors of the related personnel.
Optionally, the evaluation module includes:
a fourth determining unit, configured to determine a category of a standard human behavior factor in the relevant human behavior factors;
the calculating unit is used for respectively calculating the behavior failure probability of the target person causing behavior failure caused by the various standard person behavior factors;
the superposition unit is used for superposing the behavior failure probabilities to obtain superposition failure probability values;
and the evaluation unit is used for carrying out pedestrian safety evaluation on the target personnel by utilizing the superposition failure probability value.
Third, another human factor safety evaluation device for an industrial system is provided in an embodiment of the present invention, including:
a memory for storing an evaluation program;
a processor for executing the evaluation program stored in the memory to implement the steps of any of the above-mentioned organizational risk assessment methods for an industrial system.
Fourthly, the embodiment of the invention discloses a computer readable storage medium, on which an evaluation program is stored, and the evaluation program is executed by a processor to realize the steps of the human factor safety evaluation method for the industrial system.
Therefore, after the plurality of personnel behavior factors and the organization data are obtained from the system state model, the influence analysis is performed on each personnel behavior factor by combining the organization data to obtain the related personnel behavior factor corresponding to the organization data, and finally the related personnel behavior factor after the organization data analysis is utilized to perform the personnel safety assessment on the target personnel. Because the personnel behavior factors are analyzed through the organization data of the system state model, namely, the organization factors are considered when evaluating the human factor safety of the target personnel, and the organization factors have great influence on the human factor safety and the safety of the nuclear power station. Therefore, the embodiment of the invention adopts the method for evaluating the human factor safety by considering the organization factors, has higher evaluation accuracy rate, and ensures the personal safety of target personnel in the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station. In addition, the embodiment of the invention also discloses a human factor safety evaluation device, equipment and a storage medium for the industrial system.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a human factor safety assessment method for an industrial system according to a first embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a specific implementation manner of step S12 according to a second embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a specific implementation manner of step S13 according to a third embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a human factor safety evaluation device for an industrial system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of another human factor safety evaluation device for an industrial system according to an embodiment of the disclosure.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making any creative effort based on the embodiments in the present invention, belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses an organization risk assessment method, an organization risk assessment device and a storage medium for an industrial system, which are used for accurately assessing the human factor safety of a nuclear power station and ensuring the personal safety of workers in the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a human factor safety evaluation method for an industrial system according to a first embodiment of the present invention, the method including:
s11: a plurality of personnel behavior factors and organization data in a system state model corresponding to an industrial system are obtained.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the system state model corresponding to the industrial system is an organizational structure model of the industrial system, that is, a management procedure in the industrial system, a composition structure of the industrial system, a management structure of the industrial system, a personnel type of the industrial system, a device type of the industrial system, and the like. The system state model is an equivalent system state model established according to the actual equipment structure, personnel structure and the like of the industrial system. Wherein the plurality of personnel behavior factors in the system state model include: the processing time of the target personnel (which can be workers in the industrial system) corresponding to the target accident (which can be fault equipment occurring in the industrial system) in the industrial system and the data of the influence of the personnel of the target personnel in the target accident on the operation organization.
The processing time of the target personnel on the target accident is a time interval from the time when the target personnel starts to process the failed equipment to the time when the failed equipment is repaired, and the data of the target personnel in the target accident, which are influenced by the operation organization, are heartbeat data, blood pressure data, pressure level data, physical quality, work and behaviors which can be executed by the organization arrangement of the personnel when the target personnel outputs the failed equipment, and the like.
Correspondingly, the organization data in the system state model comprises: training level data of the target person in the system state model, organizational structure data in the system state model, and organizational arrangement data in the system state model.
The training level data refers to training states of target personnel trained in the industrial system, the organization structure data refers to personnel organization in the industrial system, structure organization and management organization of the industrial system, and the organization arrangement data refers to areas of the industrial system which are responsible for the personnel and equipment which can be operated by the staff or work which is supposed to be responsible for the staff.
S12: and analyzing the influence of each personnel behavior factor according to the organization data in the system state model to obtain the relevant personnel behavior factor corresponding to the organization data.
Specifically, in this embodiment, after a fault event occurs in the industrial system, the maximum duration of the fault event, the state of the industrial system, the procedure of the industrial system, the MCR environment of the industrial system, the processing time of the target person for processing the target event, and data of the target person, which are influenced by the operation organization, constitute a direct scenario for the target person to process the target event. The training level data of the target personnel is organized, the information sharing of the target accidents is realized, the processing process of the industrial system to the target accidents is controlled, and the like, so that an indirect scene for the target personnel to process the target accidents is formed. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the influence of the behavior factors of the individual persons by combining the organization data. Namely, the independent personnel behavior factors are established into the incidence relation among the independent personnel behavior factors through organization factors.
S13: and carrying out factor safety evaluation on target personnel in the industrial system by utilizing the related personnel behavior factors.
After the organization factors are considered and the related personnel behavior factors are established, when the safety evaluation is carried out on the target personnel of the industrial system, the influence of the organization factors on the personnel safety is correspondingly considered.
Therefore, after the plurality of personnel behavior factors and the organization data are obtained from the system state model, the influence analysis is performed on each personnel behavior factor by combining the organization data to obtain the related personnel behavior factor corresponding to the organization data, and finally the related personnel behavior factor after the organization data analysis is utilized to perform the personnel safety assessment on the target personnel. Because the personnel behavior factors are analyzed through the organization data of the system state model, namely the organization factors are considered when evaluating the human factor safety of the target personnel, and the organization factors have great influence on the human factor safety and the safety of the nuclear power station. Therefore, the embodiment of the invention adopts the method for evaluating the human factor safety by considering the organization factors, has higher evaluation accuracy, and ensures the personal safety of target personnel in the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station.
On the basis of the foregoing embodiment, step S12 may have the following optional steps, wherein as an optional embodiment of step S12, please refer to fig. 2, and fig. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a specific implementation manner of step S12 according to a second embodiment of the present invention; s12 includes:
s121: calculating a correlation coefficient between the processing time of the target person and data on which the person is affected by the operation organization using the training level data, the organization structure data, and the organization arrangement data; if the correlation coefficient meets the preset requirement, entering S122;
s122: generating a first standard normal variable corresponding to the processing time in the related personnel behavior factors and a second standard normal variable corresponding to the data of personnel affected by the operation organization;
s123: determining a first discrete probability density function according to the processing time and a first standard normal variable, and determining a second discrete probability density function according to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization and a second standard normal variable;
s124: determining the processing time and the joint probability of the data of the personnel influenced by the operation organization by utilizing the first discrete probability function and the second discrete density function; if the joint probability satisfies the predetermined condition, S125 is entered.
S125: and taking the processing time of the target person and the data of the influence of the operation organization on the person as the relevant person behavior factors.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the correlation coefficient between the processing time of the target person and the data on the influence of the operation organization on the person can be estimated by combining the training level of the target person, the organizational structure data, and the historical data of the organization plan data. And if the correlation coefficient meets the preset requirement, indicating that the processing time of the target personnel and the data of the personnel influenced by the operation organization have an association relation. For example, the higher the training level of the target person, the shorter the treatment time for the target person to treat the target accident, and the higher the training level of the target person, the greater the treatment pressure that the target person can bear, and the greater the stress tolerance of the corresponding target person.
Wherein each human behavior factor is treated as a related discrete variable (f)1,f2)(f1Can represent the processing time, f2Can be organized on behalf of the personData of influence). The correlated discrete variables are then generated into correlated normal variables (U)1,U2)，U1Can represent a first canonical normal variable, U2May represent a second standard normal variable. It is converted and then simulated by f1And f2Wherein a first discrete density function F1And a first discrete density function F2The following changes are made:
the joint probability between the processing time and the data of the person affected by the running organization is then calculated in combination with the following formula
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is a function of the bi-normal probability density,
is f1And f2The correlation coefficient of (a) is calculated,
is f1Desired value of,
Is f2Is calculated from the expected value of (c).
It should be noted that, in the alternative embodiment, only the two human behavior factors are taken as an example for description, but the embodiment is not limited to the two human behavior factors, and the correlation between the two human behavior factors may also be analyzed, and specifically, the following formula may be used:
wherein N is the number of human behavior factors, p (f)1,f2,...,fN) Is the joint probability of the N person behavior factors.
On the basis of the foregoing embodiments, the step S13 may have the following optional steps, please refer to fig. 3, and fig. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a specific implementation manner of the step S13 according to a third embodiment of the present invention; wherein S13 includes:
s131: determining the types of standard personnel behavior factors in the related personnel behavior factors;
s132: respectively calculating the behavior failure probability between each standard personnel behavior factor and the target personnel;
s133: overlapping each behavior failure probability to obtain an overlapping failure probability value;
s134: and carrying out factor safety evaluation on the target personnel by utilizing the superposition failure probability value.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the optional embodiment is described by taking an industrial system as an example of a nuclear power plant accident, wherein a personnel organization under the nuclear power plant accident is composed of a stack operator, a machine operator, a coordinator and a safety engineer, and the stack operator and the machine operator execute an emergency operation program and an accident handling program (i.e., organize data); the method comprises the steps that coordinators and safety engineers monitor the state of a unit, independently verify the unit and key operation (organization data), and in addition, the safety engineers are also responsible for judging the nature (organization data) of an accident, wherein the time required by the operation personnel, the machine operators, the coordinators and the safety engineers in working is human behavior factors, then behavior failure probabilities caused when the operation personnel, the machine operators, the coordinators and the safety engineers in working are respectively calculated in processing time (namely, failure processing on a target accident cannot be completed in the processing time), the four behavior failure probability values are superposed, and then the personal safety problem of the target personnel is judged according to the superposed failure probability values, wherein the higher the failure probability value is, the more unsafe the target personnel is judged.
Referring to fig. 4, fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a human factor safety evaluation device for an industrial system according to an embodiment of the present invention, the device including:
an obtaining module 401, configured to obtain a plurality of human behavior factors and organization data in a system state model corresponding to an industrial system;
an analysis module 402, configured to perform influence analysis on each human behavior factor according to organization data in the system state model, to obtain a relevant human behavior factor corresponding to the organization data;
and the evaluation module 403 is used for performing human factor safety evaluation on the target person in the industrial system by using the relevant person behavior factor.
Therefore, after the plurality of personnel behavior factors and the organization data are obtained from the system state model, the influence analysis is performed on each personnel behavior factor by combining the organization data to obtain the related personnel behavior factor corresponding to the organization data, and finally the related personnel behavior factor after the organization data analysis is utilized to perform the personnel safety assessment on the target personnel. Because the personnel behavior factors are analyzed through the organization data of the system state model, namely the organization factors are considered when evaluating the human factor safety of the target personnel, and the organization factors have great influence on the human factor safety and the safety of the nuclear power station. Therefore, the embodiment of the invention adopts the method for evaluating the human factor safety by considering the organization factors, has higher evaluation accuracy rate, and ensures the personal safety of target personnel in the nuclear power station and the safe operation of the nuclear power station.
Based on the foregoing embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the acquiring module 401 includes: processing time corresponding to a target accident in the industrial system by a target person and data of influence of operation organization on the person of the target person in the target accident; the organization data in the analysis module 402 includes: training level data of the target person in the system state model, organization structure data in the system state model and organization plan data in the system state model;
correspondingly, the analysis module 402 includes:
a first determination unit for calculating a correlation coefficient between a processing time of a target person and data on which the person is influenced by an operation organization using the training level data, the organization structure data, and the organization plan data; if the correlation coefficient meets the preset requirement, entering a generating unit;
the generating unit is used for generating a first standard normal variable corresponding to the processing time in the related personnel behavior factors and a second standard normal variable corresponding to the data of personnel affected by the operation organization;
the second determining unit is used for determining a first discrete probability density function according to the processing time and the first standard normal variable, and determining a second discrete probability density function according to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization and the second standard normal variable;
a third determination unit for determining the processing time and the joint probability of the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization by using the first discrete probability function and the second discrete density function; and if the joint probability meets the preset condition, taking the processing time of the target personnel and the data of the personnel influenced by the operation organization as the behavior factors of the related personnel.
Based on the above embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the evaluation module 403 includes:
a fourth determination unit, configured to determine a category of a standard human behavior factor in the correlation human behavior factors;
the calculating unit is used for respectively calculating the behavior failure probability of the target person causing behavior failure caused by various standard person behavior factors;
the superposition unit is used for superposing the behavior failure probabilities to obtain a superposition failure probability value;
and the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the cause safety of the target personnel by utilizing the superposition failure probability value.
Referring to fig. 5, fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of another human factor safety evaluation device for an industrial system according to an embodiment of the present invention, including:
a memory 501 for storing an evaluation program;
a processor 502 for executing the evaluation program stored in the memory to implement the steps of the human-induced safety evaluation method for the industrial system mentioned in any of the above embodiments.
The human factor safety evaluation device for the industrial system provided by the embodiment can call the evaluation program stored in the memory through the processor to realize the steps of the human factor safety evaluation method for the industrial system provided by any one of the embodiments, so that the evaluation device has the same practical effects as the human factor safety evaluation method for the industrial system.
The technical solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention is described in detail below with reference to an actual application scenario, where the technical solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention is applied to a nuclear power plant, where a system state model (which may be established by using a 3D modeling method) of the nuclear power plant is composed of a device composition, a personnel composition, a management organization of the nuclear power plant, and the like, in the nuclear power plant, where the personnel composition in the nuclear power plant is (corresponding to a target person in the embodiment of the present invention) a group of a stack operator, a machine operator, a coordinator, and a safety engineer, and the stack operator and the machine operator execute an emergency operation program and an accident handling program (i.e., organize data); the method comprises the steps that a coordinator and a safety engineer monitor the state of a unit, independently verify the unit and key operation (organization data), and judge the nature (organization data) of an accident, the organization data in the application scene can be stored in a memory in advance, and when the organization data need to be used, the organization data can be called by a processor directly, wherein when a target accident happens to the stack operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer in a nuclear power plant, the processing time of the stack operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer for completing the target accident in the nuclear power plant (the processing time can be determined by historical data of the stack operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer when the target accident is processed) is a first personnel behavior factor, and when the stack operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer in the nuclear power plant, the action which can be executed when the accident happens to the second person in the nuclear power plant is processed is a second personnel behavior factor And then, the first personnel behavior factor and the second personnel behavior factor are subjected to influence analysis by utilizing various organization data of a stack operator, a machine operator, a coordinator and a safety engineer to establish an association relationship between the second personnel behavior factor and the first personnel behavior factor, and particularly, correlation calculation can be performed by a joint probability method. Then, behavior failure probabilities caused when the reactor operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer execute respective corresponding execution actions when the nuclear power plant accident is processed are respectively calculated within the processing time (namely, the fault processing on the target accident cannot be completed within the processing time), the four behavior failure probability values are superposed, then, the personal safety problem of the target person is judged according to the size of the superposed failure probability value, the higher the failure probability value is, the unsafe the reactor operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer is, the superposed failure probability value is used for comprehensively evaluating the human factor safety of four types of people including the reactor operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer, in addition, after the behavior failure probabilities of the reactor operator, the machine operator, the coordinator and the safety engineer are respectively calculated, and judging the personal safety of each target person according to the respective corresponding failure probability.
In order to better understand the present solution, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which an evaluation program is stored, and the evaluation program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the human factor safety evaluation method for an industrial system as mentioned in any of the above embodiments.
The computer-readable storage medium provided in this embodiment may have the same practical effects as the human factor safety evaluation method for the industrial system described above, because the evaluation program stored in the computer-readable storage medium may be called by the processor to implement the steps of the human factor safety evaluation method for the industrial system described above in any embodiment.
The organization risk assessment method, the organization risk assessment device and the storage medium for the industrial system provided by the application are described in detail above. The principles and embodiments of the present application are explained herein using specific examples, which are provided only to help understand the method and the core idea of the present application. It should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, it is possible to make several improvements and modifications to the present application without departing from the principle of the present application, and such improvements and modifications also fall within the scope of the claims of the present application.
The embodiments are described in a progressive manner in the specification, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other. The device disclosed in the embodiment corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, so that the description is simple, and the relevant points can be referred to the description of the method part.
Claims (6)
1. A human-induced security assessment method for an industrial system, comprising:
acquiring a plurality of personnel behavior factors and organization data in a system state model corresponding to an industrial system;
analyzing the influence of each personnel behavior factor according to the organization data in the system state model to obtain related personnel behavior factors corresponding to the organization data;
utilizing the correlative personnel behavior factors to carry out factor safety assessment on target personnel in the industrial system;
the human behavior factors include: the processing time of the target personnel corresponding to the target accident in the industrial system and the data of the influence of the target personnel on the operation organization in the target accident;
organizing data in the system state model includes: training level data of the target person in the system state model, organization structure data in the system state model, and organization plan data in the system state model;
the analyzing the influence of each person behavior factor according to the organization data in the system state model to obtain the relevant person behavior factor corresponding to the organization data comprises:
calculating a correlation coefficient between the treatment time of the target person and data that the person is affected by a running organization using the training level data, the organizational structure data, and the organization plan data;
if the correlation coefficient meets a preset requirement, generating a first standard normal variable corresponding to the processing time in the behavior factor of the correlated personnel and a second standard normal variable corresponding to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization;
determining a first discrete probability density function according to the processing time and the first standard normal variable, and determining a second discrete probability density function according to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization and the second standard normal variable;
determining a joint probability of the processing time and the data of the person affected by the operational organization using the first discrete probability density function and the second discrete probability density function;
if the joint probability meets a preset condition, taking the processing time of the target personnel and data of the personnel influenced by operation organization as the behavior factors of the relevant personnel;
the determining of the joint probability of the processing time and the data of the person affected by the operational organization using the first discrete probability density function and the second discrete probability density function
f1＝F1 -1[Φ(U1)]
f2＝F2 -1[Φ(U2)]
Wherein, f1For processing time, f2Is the data that the personnel are affected by the operating organization,
is a function of the bi-normal probability density,
is f1And f2The correlation coefficient of (a) is calculated,
is f1Desired value of,
Is f2Expected value of, U1Is a first standard normal variable, U2Is a second normal variable, F1Is a first discrete probability density function, F2For the purpose of the second discrete probability density function,
is the standard deviation.
2. The human-based security assessment method for industrial systems according to claim 1, wherein said performing human-based security assessment on target people in the industrial system using the relevant human behavior factors comprises:
determining the types of standard personnel behavior factors in the related personnel behavior factors;
respectively calculating the behavior failure probability of the target person causing behavior failure due to various standard person behavior factors;
superposing the behavior failure probabilities to obtain superposition failure probability values;
and carrying out factor safety evaluation on the target personnel by utilizing the superposition failure probability value.
3. An anthropogenic security assessment device for an industrial system, comprising:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a storage module and a processing module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring a plurality of personnel behavior factors and organization data in a system state model corresponding to an industrial system;
the analysis module is used for carrying out influence analysis on each personnel behavior factor according to the organization data in the system state model to obtain relevant personnel behavior factors corresponding to the organization data;
the evaluation module is used for utilizing the correlative personnel behavior factors to carry out factor safety evaluation on target personnel in the industrial system;
the personnel behavior factor in the acquisition module comprises: the processing time of the target personnel corresponding to the target accident in the industrial system and the data of the target personnel affected by the operation organization in the target accident; organizing data in the analysis module includes: training level data of the target person in the system state model, organization structure data in the system state model, and organization plan data in the system state model;
correspondingly, the analysis module comprises:
a first determination unit for calculating a correlation coefficient between the processing time of the target person and data on the influence of the person on an operation organization using the training level data, the organization structure data, and the organization plan data; if the correlation coefficient meets the preset requirement, entering a generating unit;
the generation unit is used for generating a first standard normal variable corresponding to the processing time in the related personnel behavior factors and a second standard normal variable corresponding to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization;
the second determining unit is used for determining a first discrete probability density function according to the processing time and the first standard normal variable, and determining a second discrete probability density function according to the data of the personnel affected by the operation organization and the second standard normal variable;
a third determination unit for determining a joint probability of the processing time and the data of the person affected by the operational organization using the first discrete probability density function and the second discrete probability density function; if the joint probability meets a preset condition, taking the processing time of the target personnel and data of the personnel influenced by operation organization as the behavior factors of the relevant personnel;
the determining of the joint probability of the processing time and the data of the person affected by the operational organization using the first discrete probability density function and the second discrete probability density function
f1＝F1 -1[Φ(U1)]
f2＝F2 -1[Φ(U2)]
Wherein f is1For processing time, f2Is the data that the personnel are affected by the operating organization,
is a function of the bi-normal probability density,
is f1And f2The correlation coefficient of (a) is calculated,
is f1Desired value of,
Is f2Expected value of, U1Is a first normal variable, U2Is a second normal variable, F1Is a first discrete probability density function, F2For the purpose of the second discrete probability density function,
is the standard deviation.
4. The human security assessment device of claim 3, wherein said assessment module comprises:
a fourth determining unit, configured to determine a category of a standard human behavior factor in the relevant human behavior factors;
the calculating unit is used for respectively calculating the behavior failure probability of the target person causing behavior failure caused by the various standard person behavior factors;
the superposition unit is used for superposing the behavior failure probabilities to obtain superposition failure probability values;
and the evaluation unit is used for carrying out pedestrian safety evaluation on the target personnel by utilizing the superposition failure probability value.
5. An anthropogenic security assessment device for an industrial system, comprising:
a memory for storing an evaluation program;
a processor for executing the evaluation program stored in the memory to implement the steps of the human-induced safety evaluation method for an industrial system as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 2.
6. A computer-readable storage medium having an evaluation program stored thereon, the evaluation program being executable by a processor to implement the steps of the method for human factor security evaluation for industrial systems of any of claims 1 to 2.
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