CN109598420A - A kind of method of mud-rock flow evaluation and risk-based inspection Measure choice and its economic decision-making - Google Patents
A kind of method of mud-rock flow evaluation and risk-based inspection Measure choice and its economic decision-making Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of evaluation of mud-rock flow and risk-based inspection Measure choice and its methods of economic decision-making, obtain the parameters and development characteristics of mud-rock flow first；Using the generating process of FLO-2D numerical simulation software simulation mud-rock flow, risk zoning is carried out to mud-stone flow disaster according to analog result；Then hazard-affected body type, quantity and the vulnerability in threat range, its risk size of quantitative analysis are determined；Risk size is then differentiated to whether judge the risk " acceptable ", if need that risk control measure is taken to be intervened with allowed risk standard；Then the selection of risk control measure is carried out, and specific engineering design is carried out to the various risks Mitigation methods of selection；The total cost of all kinds of measures of last budget, the total benefit that calculation risk slows down determines net benefits according to the principle and method of cost-benefit analysis, and discount according to social average return as net present value (NPV), show whether implement general plan Mitigation methods have the conclusion of preferable economic benefit.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to geological disaster technical fields, and in particular to a kind of evaluation of mud-rock flow and risk-based inspection measure
The method of selection and its economic decision-making.
Background technique
In the natural calamity of mountain area, mud-rock flow because its occur suddenly, movement rapidly, covering surface it is big, be it is a kind of harm compared with
Big Disasters Type, to this, there are many reports.Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate measures to slow down the risk of mud-rock flow.Entire wind
Danger slows down process and needs the abundant participation of local government and resident and be embodied, but due to the difference of professional division, they
Often lack the understanding to mud-rock flow geologic feature and risk size, whether be faced with carry out risk prevention system, and how
The problem of economic rationality of estimated risk Mitigation methods.It, will be pre- therefore, it is necessary to quantify the Risk Evaluation of Debris Flow of profession
Anti- and control measures expensed helps government and public affairs by the benefit benefit of risk-based inspection, and by the comparison of cost-effectiveness
Crowd carries out rationality and economic decision-making.But the Initiated Mechanism of the mud-rock flow of concern more than many researchs at present, move distance, risk
Quantification and the design of prevention and cure project etc..For sociologys and economy such as allowed risk standard differentiation, cost-benefit analysis
The problem of, is then paid close attention to less, especially combines this several respect, carries out a complete geology in relation to mud-rock flow
, engineering science, the method for sociology and economic analysis decision do not have then.
In conclusion the present invention devises a kind of evaluation of mud-rock flow and risk-based inspection Measure choice and its economic decision-making
Method.
Summary of the invention
In view of the shortcomings of the prior art, the purpose of the invention is to provide a kind of evaluation of mud-rock flow and risks
The method of Mitigation methods selection and its economic decision-making,
To achieve the goals above, the present invention is to realize by the following technical solutions: a kind of mud-rock flow evaluation and wind
The method of dangerous Mitigation methods selection and its economic decision-making, comprising the following steps:
1, the accurately graphic data in the basin is obtained using airborne laser radar Lidar technology, and it is detailed then to carry out field
Parameter needed for fine tuning looks into, field test, calculating and the method for consulting FLO-2D handbook determine simulation.
2, Basin Boundary and grid division delimited, collection water spot and discharge point is chosen, establishes mudstone flow model.Setting simulation
Time runs FLO-2D software, obtains maximum mud depth distribution map and maximum flow rate distribution map.It is closed by mud is deep with the comprehensive of flow velocity
System determines mudstone intensity of flow, and mudstone intensity of flow criteria for classifying is arranged in FLO-2D software and is calculated, it is strong to obtain mud-rock flow
Spend distribution map.
3, the theoretical formula R=P that risk of landslip calculates is introduced(L)×P(T:L)×P(S:T)× V × E calculates mud-rock flow
Risk size, in formula, R is the value-at-risk that mud-rock flow generates, with may cause how much measuring for loss every year；P(L)For
The probability that mud-rock flow occurs；P(T:L)The probability of hazard-affected body is reached for mud-rock flow；P(S:T)For the space-time probability of hazard-affected body；V is to hold
The vulnerability of calamity body；E is the value of hazard-affected body.
4, the mudstone intensity of flow subregion obtained according to step 2, determine respectively in different zones by dangerous number N, and calculate
Probability of dying in a year f in different zones finally obtains the cumulative probability F of annual >=N people's death.It is vertical with F using N as abscissa
Coordinate draws F-N curve in logarithmic coordinates system, obtain mud-rock flow it is annual >=the cumulative probability F of N people's death and by dangerous number N
Curve.
5, the risk of certain or several controlling measurement mud-rock flows below choosing according to the actual situation: A: mud-rock flow hair is reduced
Raw probability.By slide resistant pile, barricade, or Dangerous Rock Body is directly removed, reduce the generation of middle and upper reaches landslip, reduces mudstone
Material resource is flowed, to achieve the purpose that reduce mud-rock flow probability of happening.B: the probability that mud-rock flow reaches hazard-affected body is reduced.On in
Obstruction dam body is built in trip, builds row's wall in downstream, interception dam is built before building, builds mud-rock flow from reaching resident
It builds.C: the space-time probability of hazard-affected body is reduced.Monitoring and warning and public address system are installed, evacuate crowd in advance, is held with reducing
The space-time probability of calamity body.D: the vulnerability of hazard-affected body is reduced.Public education is carried out, take precautions against natural calamities consciousness and the reply energy of the public are enhanced
Power improves the ability that hazard-affected body resists risk, reduces vulnerability.E: hazard-affected body quantity is reduced.Existing resident is moved, will be showed
There is property transfer, to reduce the quantity and value of hazard-affected body.F: it shifts risk.Risk is compensated by way of insurance.
6, it determines the design standard of flood control of mud-rock flow, then presses DZT0220-2006 " disaster prevention engineering exploration
Specification " determine silt correction factorPeak flow Qc, disposable overcurrent total amount Q, disposably go out solid matter total amount QHRoot
Etc. parameters.The parameters such as storage capacity, dam body height are determined according to DZ/T0239-2004 " debris flow control works design specification ", are selected
Form, pile foundation form, pilespacing, stake diameter, concrete grade, the reinforcing bar label etc. for taking blocking dam, lead ability to row and blocking dam are steady
It is qualitative to be checked.
7, for blocking dam engineering, according to " hydroelectric project estimation per design Compiling norm (version in 2013) " and " hydroelectric project
Expenditure pattern and general (estimating) calculate expense standard (version in 2013) " budget engineering cost；For monitoring and warning measure, according to market
Price budgeting device purchases and installs debugging cost；For other risk control measures, also according to the budget of phase dutiable value, its takes
With.Additionally need maintenance expense, the public education expense etc. in the budget evaluation period.
8, project national economy cost-effectiveness evaluation method is introduced.The standard year for determining evaluation cycle, step 7 is calculated
The annual investment for risk control as expense, the annual avoidable risk of loss that step 3 is calculated is as imitating
Benefit lists cash flow statement annual in evaluation cycle.
9, total benefit (total cash inflow) and total cost (the total cash being aggregated according to cash flow statement in evaluation cycle
Outflow), total cost is subtracted with total benefit, obtains net benefits.
10, with the average discount rate of society by the net benefits conversion in year each in evaluation cycle till now (standard year), obtain through
Help net present value (NPV) ENPV, calculating formula are as follows:
In formula, isFor the average discount rate of society, B is benefit flow, and C is expense flow, (B-C)tFor the net benefits of t
Flow, n are the project appraisal period；If ENPV is positive, show that implementing these risk control measures has net benefits, and its
It is also bigger to be worth bigger net benefits；If ENPV is negative, show to implement these risk control measures be it is not cost-effective, should give no
Certainly.
Beneficial effect
1, the method for introducing quantifying risk evaluation, makes the risk of certain debris flow gully and harmfulness have quantification
Understanding, and across comparison can be carried out between different debris flow gullies.
2, the quantification risk of certain mud-rock flow is compared with social allowed risk, is may stand in sociological vertical
, rational judgment is made to whether certain debris flow gully should be administered.
3, all rigid and soft risk control measures of certain debris flow gully are specifically designed, and budget one
Secondary property investment and long-term investment.Using cost-effectiveness method analysis net benefits number, and by the average discount rate of society by future
Whole benefits discount till now, obtain economic net present value (ENPV) ENPV, (can such as be controlled with aid decision making person in different types of project
Manage certain mud-rock flow and build a home for destitute) between be compared, carry out science decision.
Detailed description of the invention
The following describes the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments；
Method and process Fig. 1 of the invention.Show the complete stream from research and appraisal, engineering design to cost-effectiveness analysis
Journey.
Fig. 2 is the north of the city ditch remote sensing image of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the north of the city ditch aerial photograph of the embodiment of the present invention (left figure is upstream general picture, and right figure is downstream general picture).
Fig. 4 is the middle and lower reaches maximum mud depth distribution map under the maximum raininess of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is the middle and lower reaches maximum flow rate distribution map under the maximum raininess of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 6 is the mud-rock flow intensity distribution (100 Annual exceeding probability) of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 7 is the hazard-affected body vulnerability subregion of the embodiment of the present invention.By the vulnerability of hazard-affected body by ready-portioned mud
Rock glacier intensity carries out subregion.
Fig. 8 is the mud-rock flow risk of the embodiment of the present invention and the comparison of social allowed risk standard.See the risk of mud-rock flow
Whether F-N curve falls in " unacceptable area ", " tolerable area " or " universal zone of acceptability ", in this, as should take
The foundation of risk control measure.
Fig. 9 is the north of the city gully mud-rock flow blocking dam and monitoring warning device plan view of the embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 10 is blocking dam 1# (left side), 2# (right side) design section dimensional drawing of the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
To be easy to understand the technical means, the creative features, the aims and the efficiencies achieved by the present invention, tie below
Specific embodiment is closed, the present invention is further explained.
- Figure 10 referring to Fig.1, present embodiment use following technical scheme: a kind of evaluation of mud-rock flow and risk-based inspection
Measure choice and its method of economic decision-making, include the following steps (Fig. 1):
1, the accurately graphic data in the basin is obtained using airborne laser radar Lidar technology, and it is detailed then to carry out field
Parameter needed for fine tuning looks into, field test, calculating and the method for consulting FLO-2D handbook determine simulation.
2, Basin Boundary and grid division delimited, collection water spot and discharge point is chosen, establishes mudstone flow model.Setting simulation
Time runs FLO-2D software, obtains maximum mud depth distribution map and maximum flow rate distribution map.It is closed by mud is deep with the comprehensive of flow velocity
System determines mudstone intensity of flow, and mudstone intensity of flow criteria for classifying is arranged in FLO-2D software and is calculated, it is strong to obtain mud-rock flow
Spend distribution map.
3, the theoretical formula R=P that risk of landslip calculates is introduced(L)×P(T:L)×P(S:T)× V × E calculates mud-rock flow
Risk size, in formula, R is the value-at-risk that mud-rock flow generates, with may cause how much measuring for loss every year；P(L)For
The probability that mud-rock flow occurs；P(T:L)The probability of hazard-affected body is reached for mud-rock flow；P(S:T)For the space-time probability of hazard-affected body；V is to hold
The vulnerability of calamity body；E is the value of hazard-affected body.
4, the mudstone intensity of flow subregion obtained according to step 2, determine respectively in different zones by dangerous number N, and calculate
Probability of dying in a year f in different zones finally obtains the cumulative probability F of annual >=N people's death.It is vertical with F using N as abscissa
Coordinate draws F-N curve in logarithmic coordinates system, obtain mud-rock flow it is annual >=the cumulative probability F of N people's death and by dangerous number N
Curve.
5, the risk of certain or several controlling measurement mud-rock flows below choosing according to the actual situation: A: mud-rock flow hair is reduced
Raw probability.By slide resistant pile, barricade, or Dangerous Rock Body is directly removed, reduce the generation of middle and upper reaches landslip, reduces mudstone
Material resource is flowed, to achieve the purpose that reduce mud-rock flow probability of happening.B: the probability that mud-rock flow reaches hazard-affected body is reduced.On in
Obstruction dam body is built in trip, builds row's wall in downstream, interception dam is built before building, builds mud-rock flow from reaching resident
It builds.C: the space-time probability of hazard-affected body is reduced.Monitoring and warning and public address system are installed, evacuate crowd in advance, is held with reducing
The space-time probability of calamity body.D: the vulnerability of hazard-affected body is reduced.Public education is carried out, take precautions against natural calamities consciousness and the reply energy of the public are enhanced
Power improves the ability that hazard-affected body resists risk, reduces vulnerability.E: hazard-affected body quantity is reduced.Existing resident is moved, will be showed
There is property transfer, to reduce the quantity and value of hazard-affected body.F: it shifts risk.Risk is compensated by way of insurance.
6, it determines the design standard of flood control of mud-rock flow, then presses DZT0220-2006 " disaster prevention engineering exploration
Specification " determine silt correction factorPeak flow Qc, disposable overcurrent total amount Q, solid matter total amount QH root is disposably gone out
Etc. parameters.The parameters such as storage capacity, dam body height are determined according to DZ/T0239-2004 " debris flow control works design specification ", are selected
Form, pile foundation form, pilespacing, stake diameter, concrete grade, the reinforcing bar label etc. for taking blocking dam, lead ability to row and blocking dam are steady
It is qualitative to be checked.
7, for blocking dam engineering, according to " hydroelectric project estimation per design Compiling norm (version in 2013) " and " hydroelectric project
Expenditure pattern and general (estimating) calculate expense standard (version in 2013) " budget engineering cost；For monitoring and warning measure, according to market
Price budgeting device purchases and installs debugging cost；For other risk control measures, also according to the budget of phase dutiable value, its takes
With.Additionally need maintenance expense, the public education expense etc. in the budget evaluation period.
8, project national economy cost-effectiveness evaluation method is introduced.The standard year for determining evaluation cycle, step 7 is calculated
The annual investment for risk control as expense, the annual avoidable risk of loss that step 3 is calculated is as imitating
Benefit lists cash flow statement annual in evaluation cycle.
9, total benefit (total cash inflow) and total cost (the total cash being aggregated according to cash flow statement in evaluation cycle
Outflow), total cost is subtracted with total benefit, obtains net benefits.
10, with the average discount rate of society by the net benefits conversion in year each in evaluation cycle till now (standard year), obtain through
Help net present value (NPV) ENPV, calculating formula are as follows:
In formula, isFor the average discount rate of society, B is benefit flow, and C is expense flow, (B-C)tFor the net benefits of t
Flow, n are the project appraisal period.If ENPV is positive, show that implementing these risk control measures has net benefits, and its
It is also bigger to be worth bigger net benefits；If ENPV is negative, show to implement these risk control measures be it is not cost-effective, should give no
Certainly.
Embodiment 1: north of the city gully mud-rock flow is located at Chinese loess plateau east Luiliang Mountains, and administrative division belongs to Shanxi Province
Ji County (Fig. 2).Exit or entrance of a clitch coordinate is 110 ° 40 ' 24.90 ", 36 ° 6 ' 14.09 ".On July 3rd, 2013, there is area in Shanxi Province south
Domain property torrential rain, Ji County's precipitation >=100mm, maximum raininess reaches 54.6mm within 1 hour.Mud-rock flow occurs for north of the city ditch, and mighty torrent is rushed in
Courtyard, house positioned at the Residents at the exit or entrance of a clitch, lose property centainly.Currently, there are also a large amount of loose in the channel
Substance, under certain condition of raining, there is still the danger that mud-rock flow occurs again.Therefore the present embodiment is just with north of the city ditch mud
For rock glacier, the complete procedure from research and appraisal, engineering design to cost-effectiveness analysis is shown.
(1) Debris Flow Evolution feature
The tap drain road length 3776m of the debris flow gully, upstream and downstream height difference 289m, average gradient 30 ‰, drainage area
3.39km2.Entire debris flow gully is divided into upstream, midstream and downstream, upper brigade commander 3800m, middle brigade commander 1360m, lower brigade commander
1600m (Fig. 2).There are two Zhigou in upstream, and section is V-shaped, 45 ° of the two sides gradient (Fig. 3 is left).Two Zhigou are in low-angle
It meets at a bit, it is herein upper and middle reaches separation that channel, which occurs bending and becoming wide slow, at 180m downstream.It is indulged since middle reaches
Slope is than reducing, and the lowest point is flat, and channel is straight, but channel width is relatively narrow.There is a bend at away from two Zhigou joint 1540m,
Channel also becomes broad by tight beam, this is middle and lower reaches separation.Downstream ditch road width delays straight, remittance upper one after the about 1600m that circulates
Grade channel-Ge needle ditch imports clear water river using about 400m (this is the level-one tributary of the Yellow River).The middle and upper reaches channel of the bar ditch
Interior nobody lives, but downstream has the river of about 600m long seriously to be tied up by resident house, in case of big flood or mudstone
Stream, just without enough spaces excretion flood or accumulation materials of debris flow (Fig. 3 is right).
It is Mid- Late Pleistocene loess that lithology, which is the 4th, in ditch.Middle and upper reaches are shared and are come down at 10.Materials of debris flow source is main
For the bulk materials that Loess Landslide, avalanche, slope surface mudflow are formed, based on fine grained soil, block stone content is less.Entire basin pine
Dissipate object average thickness 0.5m, 100,000 m of volume3.According to in-site measurement, the bulk density of solid matter loess is 23.0kN/m3, mud-rock flow
Bulk density is 18.5kN/m3。
According to 1957~2016 annual precipitation data, ditch many years mean annual precipitation 529.4mm；Year maximum precipitation
828.9mm；Daily maximum rainfall amount 151.3mm.It is analyzed with hydrologic method, the hour maximum precipitation met for 100 years one is
56.3mm/h.Peak value clear water flow Q at this timepIt is calculated by following empirical equation:
In formula, 0.278 is unit conversion coefficient；T lasts for watershed concentration, value 1h；htFor t period maximum net rainfall
Amount, value 56.3mm；A is catchment area, value 3.39km2。
(2) risk analysis
Use the risk of FLO-2D software simulation mud-rock flow.Being obtained first using airborne laser radar Lidar technology should
Then the accurately graphic data in basin carries out field probe, field test, calculating and the side for consulting FLO-2D handbook
Parameter needed for method determines simulation is following (table 1).
1 FLO-2D of table simulates used parameter
Establish mudstone flow model.Basin Boundary and grid division delimited first, then choose the intersection of two Zhigou of upstream
As collection water spot, minimum two grids of Basin Boundary are chosen as discharge point, the physical location of the point is exported in north of the city ditch
Place and its intersection for importing another stream.Setting simulated time obtains maximum by runs software for 3 hours
Mud depth distribution map (Fig. 4) and maximum flow rate distribution map (Fig. 5).
Achievement according to previous studies can determine mudstone intensity of flow by the deep synthetic relationship with flow velocity of mud, and intensity determines quasi-
Then such as table 2.The intensity that mud-rock flow is arranged in FLO-2D software according to this criterion divides condition, and is calculated, final
To mud-rock flow intensity distribution (Fig. 6).
2 mudstone intensity of flow decision criteria of table
The figure is that the mud of simulation mud-rock flow in the case where the maximum raininess 56.3mm/h met for 100 years one is deep and flow velocity is comprehensive
What conjunction obtained, it is meant that under 100 years outcross probabilities, this cheuch will be flooded just like range shown in figure by mud-rock flow,
And the intensity of the deeper local mud-rock flow of color is bigger.
(3) risk analysis
The theoretical formula that risk of landslip calculates are as follows: R=P(L)×P(T:L)×P(S:T)× V × E, in formula, R is that landslide generates
Value-at-risk, with every year may cause how much measuring for loss；P(L)The probability occurred for landslide；P(T:L)It is arrived for landslide
Up to the probability of hazard-affected body；P(S:T)For the space-time probability of hazard-affected body；V is the vulnerability of hazard-affected body；E is the value of hazard-affected body.
The present embodiment calculates the value-at-risk of mud-rock flow using above-mentioned theory formula.P(L)It can regard that mud-rock flow occurs general as
Rate.Under 100 Annual exceeding probabilities, this probability is 0.01.P(T:L)The probability of hazard-affected body is reached for mud-rock flow.Mud-rock flow flooding area
Hazard-affected body have property and people's two major classes.Its space-time probability, vulnerability and value is calculated separately below.
The hazard-affected body of property class is mainly local civil construction and indoor article because they be it is fixed,
Space-time probability P(S:T)It is 1.0.The size of vulnerability V is mainly deep by mud and flow velocity is influenced, at the same also with the heavily fortified point of hazard-affected body itself
Gu degree is related.According to field investigation, the local-style dwelling houses of mainly 1~2 layer of building local of brick mix structure, such building is resisted
The ability of external force is poor, studies according to forefathers, and when debris flow velocity is greater than 4m/s or mud is greater than 3m deeply, such building can be complete
Total loss is ruined.If the high regional vulnerability of mudstone intensity of flow is 0.9；The medium regional vulnerability of mudstone intensity of flow is 0.6；Mudstone
The low regional vulnerability of intensity of flow is 0.1 (Fig. 7).The value E of hazard-affected body is only estimated.According to local Real Estate Price,
Its house unit price is 1800 yuan/m2, in addition, 25% estimation of the value of indoor article by building construction value, then property class is held
Calamity body comprehensive unit price is 2250 yuan/m2.The floor space in different vulnerable zones is measured respectively, and multiplied by comprehensive unit price, can be obtained
The total value of property.
The hazard-affected body of personnel's class is mainly the resident at county town because resident be it is movable, space-time probability is less than
1.0, by having stay within doors daily per capita within 10 hours, then P(S:T)=10/24=0.42.The size and mud-rock flow of personnel's vulnerability V
Intensity, time, early warning duration, personnel's physical fitness, education level, the rescue mechanism of generation etc. it is related, value between
Between 0 (harmless)~1.0 (death).If the high area people vulnerability of mudstone intensity of flow is 0.1；Mudstone intensity of flow is medium
Area people vulnerability be 0.05；The low area people vulnerability of mudstone intensity of flow is 0.01 (Fig. 7).According to field investigation,
The personnel for living in intensity region have 8 family, 24 people；The personnel for living in middle intensity region have 15 family, 45 people；Live in low-intensity area
Personnel have 20 family, 60 people.For humanistic viewpoint, the value of life is incalculable, but the present embodiment is wanted
Expense and benefit are evaluated, so needing to take the value of some way monetization life.Valence is lost using individual life
It is worth calculating formula Ei=ge (1-w)/4w, g is GDP/ per capita in formula, and e is the average life expectancy of the people, when w is work leisure
Between compare.Access related data (State Statistics Bureau, 2017) g value is 55,000 yuan/year, and e value is 73 years old, and w value is
0.2, calculate to obtain Ei=402 ten thousand yuan.With number multiplied by individual life lost value EiThe value of available personnel's class hazard-affected body.
Each factor value of mud-rock flow Risk Calculation formula and calculated result see the table below (table 3).North of the city gully mud-rock flow risk summation
It is 740,000 yuan/year after monetization.
3 north of the city gully mud-rock flow value-at-risk computational chart of table
(4) allowed risk standard and risk assessment
According to mudstone intensity of flow subregion, determine respectively in different zones by dangerous number N, and calculate in different zones
Probability of dying in a year f finally obtains the cumulative probability F (table 4) of annual >=N people's death.Using N as abscissa, using F as ordinate,
F-N curve is drawn in logarithmic coordinates system, obtain north of the city gully mud-rock flow it is annual >=the cumulative probability F of N people's death and by dangerous number N
Curve (Fig. 8).It can be seen from the figure that the curve is fully fallen in " unacceptable area ", show the threat people of the mud-rock flow
Several and probability of death is all considerably beyond the social receptible degree of institute.
4 north of the city gully mud-rock flow F-N curve data table of table
And according to field investigation, the risk control measure taken for the harm that this mud-rock flow may cause is seldom,
It only is provided with warning sign at the exit or entrance of a clitch, and necessary informing obligation has been carried out to local resident.Existing risk control is arranged
It applies insufficient, it is therefore desirable to other risk control measures be taken to be intervened.
(5) selection of risk control measure
In theory, it can control the risk of mud-rock flow just like several measures that step 5 is listed, but be limited to reality
Various restraining factors, we select tri- kinds of measures of B, C, D to control risk, i.e., engineering measure, monitoring and warning and the public religion
It educates.
There are three schemes for engineering measure.Scheme one builds interception dam before building, and mud-rock flow is prevented to reach hazard-affected body.
But much resident house is close apart from mudstone fluid stream channel, and building is intensive, without construction space.Scheme two, reconstruction are existing
Mud-rock flow is led to next stage main stem-clear water river by some exhaust systems.It needs to widen the existing row of intensification and leads canal 1250m,
But many resident houses are both less than 5m at a distance from row's wall, to widen row and lead canal, it is necessary to which many houses of removing can cause
Many social concerns.Scheme three (Fig. 9) builds blocking dam 2 in middle reaches.The addressing of 1# blocking dam is had a common boundary in upstream and middle reaches
Place is conducive to the kinetic energy for cutting down mud-rock flow using a river channel natural turning, and width only 15m in river valley is also beneficial to reduce work
Cheng Liang.Main function is that the loose material formed that comes down blocked in the Zhigou of upstream two enters middle reaches.2# blocking dam addressing exists
Middle reaches and downstream intersection, river valley width 40m.Dam site upstream is simulation flow velocity maximum, and downstream is that simulation mud is deep maximum
Place illustrates at this that river valley becomes wide slow from tight beam, and blocking dam is built at this can retain most of coarse material.It is comprehensive
Compare three schemes, selectes scheme three and be used as engineering measure.
Monitoring and warning system includes all kinds of monitoring devices and software systems and broadcast (Fig. 9).Monitoring device has: (1) rainfall
Monitoring.It is swum in upper, middle and lower and lays 3 rainfall gauges, reached rainfall threshold value and start different grades of early warning.(2) mud-rock flow
Sound monitoring.1 infrasound alarm is laid in upstream, the infrasound signals by capturing mudstone stream source realize alarm.(3) mud
Position monitoring.1 is laid in middle reaches, the fluctuation and change of mud-rock flow mud position is measured using echo ranging principle and realizes early warning；(4)
Video surveillance.Upper, middle and lower swim lay 3 video cameras, Monitoring Debris Flow occur when image change information and realize
Early warning.Supplement of the monitoring and warning system as engineering measure, can reinforce the effect of risk-based inspection measure.
Public education is extremely important, it is one and spends the less and apparent risk-based inspection measure of effect.The mode taken
Including putting up picture posters, science popularization lecture is done to students in middle and primary schools, provides promotional pamphlet etc. to community resident.
(6) the specific design of measure
The flood design that the blocking dam engineering of this mud-rock flow was met by 100 years one, according to DZT0220-2006 " Debris-flow Hazard
Evil prevention and cure project exploration standards ", silt correction factorAre as follows:
In formula, γ c is mud-rock flow bulk density, value 18.5kN/m3, γ H is mud-rock flow bulk density, value 23.0kN/m3, γ w
For the bulk density of water, value 10.0kN/m3。
The peak flow Qc of mud-rock flow are as follows:
Qc=(1+ φ) Qp·Dc=(1+1.89) × 53.05 × 1.5=229.9m3/s
In formula,It is silt correction factor, is 1.89；QpIt is the clear water peak flow that frequency is p, was met by 100 years one
Design frequency, value 53.05m3/s；DcIt is mud-rock flow gross blockage factor, consulting specification value is 1.5.
The disposable overcurrent total amount Q of mud-rock flow are as follows:
Q=KTQc=0.202 × 1800 × 229.9=8.35 × 104m3
In formula, Qc is mud-rock flow peak flow, is 229.9m3/s；T lasts for mud-rock flow, value 30min (1800s)；K
For empirical coefficient, value 0.202.
Mud-rock flow disposably goes out solid matter total amount QHAre as follows:
In formula, Q is disposable overcurrent total amount, is 8.35 × 104m3；γc、γH、γwMeaning and value are same as above.
According to DZ/T0239-2004 " debris flow control works design specification ", the solids gone out using mud-rock flow
Matter total amount determines storage capacity, so that it is determined that dam body height.Take contour be layered summation, calculate 1# blocking dam height be 9m,
2# blocking dam height is 6m.
Using the form (Figure 10) of stone masonry gravity type blocking dam.Design width at dam crest 2m, upstream dam body slope in the dam 1#
0.6, downstream dam body slope 0.2, upstream upstream face lengthens 0.8m, and dam bottom thickeies 2.0m.According to topographic profile at dam site, dam crest
Length is 25m.The aileron of 0~9m high is separately separately designed at dam body both ends.Design width at dam crest 2m, upstream dam body slope in the dam 2#
0.6, downstream dam body slope 0.2, upstream upstream face lengthens 1.4m, and dam bottom thickeies 2.0m.According to topographic profile at dam site, dam crest
Length is 45m.The aileron of 0~7m high is separately separately designed at dam body both ends.1#, 2# blocking dam ground are Middle Pleistocene Huang
Soil, designs low cushion cap manual digging concrete pile, pilespacing 6m, stake diameter 2.5m, concrete grade C35, reinforcing bar label
HRB400。
In line with the principle of saving, original row can be continued with and lead canal, it is therefore desirable to ability be led to row and tested.City
Northern gully mud-rock flow is after twice dam body is retained, and sediment content is reduced in fluid, and severe reduces, and is in streamflow regime, flow velocity is by graceful
Peaceful formula calculates as follows:
In formula, n is the channel coefficient of roughness, value 0.05；H is hydraulic radius, value 0.8m；I is hydraulic gradient, value
0.03。
Drainage groove mean breadth 3m, depth 2.5m, cross dimensions 7.5m2, it is calculated by flow rate of water flow V=8.54m/s,
Section flow is 64.05m3/ s, the clear water peak flow 53.05m met greater than 100 years one3/ s, therefore row leads the conveyance capacity of canal
It meets the requirements.
Blocking dam Stability Checking omits.
(7) cost-benefit analysis
For blocking dam engineering, according to " hydroelectric project estimation per design Compiling norm (version in 2013) " and " hydroelectric project is taken
Expense standard (version in 2013) is calculated with composition and general (estimating) ", it is following (table 5) to calculate expense:
5 risk-based inspection engineering measure budget table of table
It is following (table 6) according to equipment purchase and the budget of installation and debugging expense for monitoring and warning measure:
6 risk-based inspection monitoring and warning measure budget table of table
The above blocking dam engineering and monitoring and warning engineering, which expect to construct in 1 year, to be completed, and adding up to expense is 2,620,000 yuan, this is
Disposable Meteorological.Furthermore it also needs to put into about 80,000 yuan of certain maintenance cost and public education expense about 10,000 every year
Member.Blocking dam projected life and the implementation cycle of north of the city gully mud-rock flow risk-based inspection measure are 100 years.Here, the project of introducing
National economy cost-effectiveness evaluation method.The standard year evaluated using 2019 as cost-effectiveness, will be used for wind every year
The investment nearly slowed down as expense, will annual avoidable risk of loss as benefit (according to preceding calculating value for 740,000 yuan/
Year), annual cash flow statement (table 7) can be listed.
7 risk-based inspection measure cost of table-benefit flowmeter (100 years phases of evaluation)
By the calculated result of the table it is found that if coming into effect risk-based inspection measure from 2019, totally 100 by 2118
Year.In this evaluation cycle, total benefit (total cash inflow) is 73,260,000 yuan, and total cost (total cash outflow) is 11,540,000
Member, net benefits (total benefit subtracts total cost) are 61,720,000 yuan, are 508 by the average discount rate of society net present value (NPV) till now of discounting
Wan Yuan has preferable economic benefit, it is possible to implement.
The above shows and describes the basic principles and main features of the present invention and the advantages of the present invention.The skill of the industry
Art personnel it should be appreciated that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, the above embodiments and description only describe
The principle of the present invention, without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, various changes and improvements may be made to the invention, this
A little changes and improvements all fall within the protetion scope of the claimed invention.The claimed scope of the invention is by the attached claims
Book and its equivalent thereof.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of mud-rock flow evaluation and risk-based inspection Measure choice and its method of economic decision-making, which is characterized in that including following
Step:
(1) the accurately graphic data in the basin is obtained using airborne laser radar Lidar technology, is then carried out field and is adjusted in detail
It looks into, parameter needed for field test, calculating and the method determination simulation of access FLO-2D handbook；
(2) Basin Boundary and grid division delimited, collection water spot and discharge point is chosen, establishes mudstone flow model；Simulated time is set,
FLO-2D software is run, maximum mud depth distribution map and maximum flow rate distribution map are obtained；Determine by the deep synthetic relationship with flow velocity of mud
Mudstone intensity of flow is arranged mudstone intensity of flow criteria for classifying and is calculated in FLO-2D software, obtains mud-rock flow intensity distribution
Figure；
(3) the theoretical formula R=P that risk of landslip calculates is introduced(L)×P(T:L)×P(S:T)× V × E is big come the risk for calculating mud-rock flow
Small, in formula, R is the value-at-risk that mud-rock flow generates, with every year may cause how much measuring for loss；P(L)For mud-rock flow
The probability of generation；P(T:L)The probability of hazard-affected body is reached for mud-rock flow；P(S:T)For the space-time probability of hazard-affected body；V is the easy of hazard-affected body
Damage property；E is the value of hazard-affected body；
(4) the mudstone intensity of flow subregion obtained according to step (2), determine respectively in different zones by dangerous number N, and calculate not
With the probability of dying in a year f in region, the cumulative probability F of annual >=N people's death is finally obtained；It is vertical sit with F using N as abscissa
Mark draws F-N curve in logarithmic coordinates system, obtain mud-rock flow it is annual >=the cumulative probability F of N people's death and by dangerous number N's
Curve；
(5) risk of certain or several controlling measurement mud-rock flows below choosing according to the actual situation: A: reduce what mud-rock flow occurred
Probability；By slide resistant pile, barricade, or Dangerous Rock Body is directly removed, reduce the generation of middle and upper reaches landslip, reduces mud-rock flow object
Source, to achieve the purpose that reduce mud-rock flow probability of happening；B: the probability that mud-rock flow reaches hazard-affected body is reduced；It is built in middle and upper reaches
Dam body is stopped, row's wall is built in downstream, interception dam is built before building, prevents mud-rock flow from reaching civil construction；C: subtract
The space-time probability of few hazard-affected body；Monitoring and warning and public address system are installed, evacuate crowd, in advance to reduce the space-time of hazard-affected body
Probability；D: the vulnerability of hazard-affected body is reduced；Public education is carried out, take precautions against natural calamities consciousness and the adaptibility to response of the public are enhanced, is improved hazard-affected
Body resists the ability of risk, reduces vulnerability；E: hazard-affected body quantity is reduced；Existing resident is moved, existing property is shifted, with
Reduce the quantity and value of hazard-affected body；F: it shifts risk；Risk is compensated by way of insurance；
(6) design standard of flood control of mud-rock flow is determined, then by DZT0220-2006 " disaster prevention engineering exploration rule
Model " determine silt correction factorPeak flow Qc, disposable overcurrent total amount Q, solid matter total amount QH root etc. is disposably gone out
Parameter；Determine that parameters, the selections such as storage capacity, dam body height are blocked according to DZ/T0239-2004 " debris flow control works design specification "
Form, pile foundation form, pilespacing, stake diameter, concrete grade, reinforcing bar label of dam etc. lead ability and blocking dam stability to row
It is checked；
(7) for blocking dam engineering, according to " hydroelectric project estimation per design Compiling norm (version in 2013) " and " hydroelectric project expense
Constitute and general (estimating) calculate expense standard (version in 2013) " budget engineering cost；It is pre- according to the market price for monitoring and warning measure
Calculate equipment purchase and installation and debugging expense；For other risk control measures, also according to its expense of phase dutiable value budget；Additionally
Need maintenance expense, the public education expense etc. in the budget evaluation period；
(8) project national economy cost-effectiveness evaluation method is introduced；The standard year for determining evaluation cycle calculates step 7 every
The investment of risk control is used for year as expense, the annual avoidable risk of loss that step 3 is calculated to be listed as benefit
Annual cash flow statement in evaluation cycle；
(9) total benefit and total cost in evaluation cycle are aggregated according to cash flow statement, subtract total cost with total benefit, obtains
Net benefits；
(10) net benefits in year each in evaluation cycle is converted till now with society's average discount rate, obtains economic net present value (ENPV)
ENPV, calculating formula are as follows:
In formula, isFor the average discount rate of society, B is benefit flow, and C is expense flow, (B-C)tFor the net benefits flow of t,
N is the project appraisal period；If ENPV is positive, show that implementing these risk control measures has net benefits, and its value is bigger
Net benefits is also bigger；If ENPV is negative, show to implement these risk control measures be it is not cost-effective, should give rejection.
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| CN117893382B (en) * | 2024-03-13 | 2024-05-31 | 天津市地质研究和海洋地质中心 | Geological disaster risk evaluation method and system based on multi-element feature fusion |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110008608A (en) * | 2019-04-12 | 2019-07-12 | 成都理工大学 | A kind of calculation method and application of earthquake region breaking mud flow flow |
| CN110008608B (en) * | 2019-04-12 | 2022-03-04 | 成都理工大学 | Calculation method and application of earthquake-region burst type debris flow |
| CN116577061A (en) * | 2023-07-14 | 2023-08-11 | 常州市建筑科学研究院集团股份有限公司 | Detection method for wind resistance of metal roof, computer equipment and medium |
| CN116577061B (en) * | 2023-07-14 | 2023-09-15 | 常州市建筑科学研究院集团股份有限公司 | Detection method for wind resistance of metal roof, computer equipment and medium |
| CN117893382A (en) * | 2024-03-13 | 2024-04-16 | 天津市地质研究和海洋地质中心 | Geological disaster risk evaluation method and system based on multi-element feature fusion |
| CN117893382B (en) * | 2024-03-13 | 2024-05-31 | 天津市地质研究和海洋地质中心 | Geological disaster risk evaluation method and system based on multi-element feature fusion |
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