CN109597969B - A kind of surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method - Google Patents

A kind of surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method Download PDF

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CN109597969B
CN109597969B CN201910074268.2A CN201910074268A CN109597969B CN 109597969 B CN109597969 B CN 109597969B CN 201910074268 A CN201910074268 A CN 201910074268A CN 109597969 B CN109597969 B CN 109597969B
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CN109597969A (en
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张秀英
赵丽敏
程苗苗
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Nanjing University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of surface ozone Concentration Estimation Methods, it is based on Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method, utilizes NO near the ground2And CH2O concentration data and ultraviolet radiation data (UV) have estimated east China area ground month value ozone (O3) concentration data.The following steps are included: Step 1: by atmospheric chemistry model MOZART-4 digital simulation NO2And CH2O profile；Step 2: near surface NO2And CH2The estimation of O concentration；Step 3: carrying out ground O using GWR method3Concentration estimation；Step 4: accuracy evaluation, precision evaluation the result shows that, GWR model is to moon O3Concentration precision with higher (analog result R2=0.81, absolute error (AE)=7.38ug/m3, cross validation R2=0.77, AE=8.20ug/m3).The present invention is subsidized by state natural sciences fund general project and is completed.

Description

A kind of surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method
Technical field
The invention belongs to remote sensing data application technologies, specifically, being to be related to one kind based on Geographical Weighted Regression Model (GWR) the method using ozone precursor estimation surface ozone concentration.
Background technique
Ground level ozone (O3) it is a kind of air pollutants, human health, Forest Productivity, crop yield and quality are generated Negative effect.Precursor nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) and local environmental conditions (including temperature, Solar radiation etc.) under the influence of, O3Concentration be subjected to photochemistry and physical process.China experienced quick urbanization and industry Change, precursor discharge amount is caused to increase.Therefore, the O of deterioration3Pollution causes the concern of China.Ground O3Mainly by illumination Under the conditions of NOx and VOC photochemical oxidation generate.It therefore, can be by being related to O3Relationship between its precursor estimates O3It is dense Degree.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above problems, the present invention is proposed in order to provide a kind of surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method.
The technical solution adopted by the present invention are as follows: be based on GWR surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method, which is characterized in that including Following steps:
(1) MOZART-4 simulates NO2And CH2O profile, MOZART-4 data vertical direction are divided into 56 layers, on different height NO2(CH2O Gaussian function distribution) is obeyed between concentration and elevation, so we are using 2~6 Gaussian functions on each grid NO2It is fitted with the distribution of elevation.Its citation form are as follows: Indicate NO2Or CH2Concentration of the O at atmosphere height h；A indicates that amplitude, b indicate mass center (position), and c refers to peak width, and n is the order of fitting；
(2) ozone precursor NO2And CH2O concentration above the ground, It is to be obtained most by MOZART-4 The NO of bottom2And CH2O concentration, ΩOIt is the troposphere column NO that OMI is provided2Or CH2O concentration, ΩMIt is pair obtained by MOZART-4 Fluid layer column concentration data.Select the NO at 50 meters2Or CH2The bottom of O concentration, almost MOZART-4 simulation is as a result, as ground Face NO2Or CH2O concentration；
(3) it is estimated based on GWR surface ozone concentration, GWR can generate parameter value by the linear regression of localized forms Continuous surface, to simulate the relationship of spatial variations.GWR is by combined ground ozone and falls in the influence in each target bandwidth The factor constructs these individual models.In our current research, there is an independent GWR model every month, formula is as follows: O3st =β0,st+β1,stCH2Ost+β2,stNO2,st+β3,stUVst+εst, O3stIt is putting down the moon for the ground level ozone concentrations of grid cell s in month t Mean value；β0,stIndicate location-specific intercept；β1,st-β2,st-β3,stIt is the slope of impact factor specific position；CH2OstBe from CH2The ground CH of O column estimation2O concentration；NO2,stIt is from NO2The ground NO of column estimation2Concentration；UVstIndicate ultraviolet radiation number According to；εstIt is the error term of grid cell s in month t；
(4) accuracy evaluation, the determination coefficient (R of simulation model2), mean absolute error (| O3,Estimation–O3, Measurement |) percentage of (AE) and absolute error (| O3,Estimation–O3,Measurement|/O3, Measurement × 100%) (PAE) be used to assess the performance of simulation model.The data set of every month is two groups, wherein 80% Data record be used for model construction, remaining 20% be used for accuracy evaluation.
The utility model has the advantages that the regional scale near surface O obtained3Concentration can be than accurately indicating O3The when space-variant of concentration Change feature, the data are to O3Exposure health evaluating and O3Scientific basis is provided to terrestrial ecosystems impact evaluation, it is also big to formulate Gas Environment Protection Policy provides scientific basis.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is implementation diagram of the invention.
Fig. 2 is present invention NO near the ground2And CH2O concentration profile figure.
Fig. 3 is the present invention average annual NO near the ground2And CH2O concentration map, Eastern China ozone concentration above the ground result figure.
Fig. 4 is result verification figure of the present invention.
Fig. 5 table 1 is NO2And CH2O concentration profile analog result.
Fig. 6 table 2 is O3Related coefficient between concentration and independent variable.
Specific embodiment
Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are described in more detail below with reference to accompanying drawings.
It as shown in Fig. 1, is a kind of surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method of the application, specific steps process.
1.NO2And CH2The simulation of O concentration profile.Atmospheric chemistry model MOZART-4 data in 2014, the mode are obtained first Spatial resolution is 1.9 ° * 2.5 °, and vertical direction is 56 atmospheric pressure, which simulated 1 time every six hours daily.Atmospheric concentration is wide Line simulation uses Gauss model.Its citation form are as follows: Indicate NO2Or CH2O exists Concentration at atmosphere height h；A indicates that amplitude, b indicate mass center (position), and c refers to peak width, and n is the order of fitting.NO2And CH2O is dense It is as shown in table 1 to spend profile analog result, NO2And CH2The distribution of O concentration vertical is as shown in Figure 2.
2. NO near the ground2And CH2O concentration calculation.NO near the ground2And CH2The atmosphere convection that O concentration is obtained by OMI sensor Layer NO2Column concentration, CH2O column concentration and by atmospheric chemistry model MOZART-4 profile obtain. Be by The NO for the bottom that MOZART-4 is obtained2And CH2O concentration, ΩOIt is the troposphere column NO that OMI is provided2Or CH2O concentration, ΩMBe by The troposphere column concentration data that MOZART-4 is obtained.Select the NO at 50 meters2Or CH2The simulation of O concentration, almost MOZART-4 The bottom is as a result, as ground NO2Or CH2O concentration.
NO near the ground2Or CH2O concentration data unit is by 1010molec./cm3It is converted into ug/m3。Its In, c1For molecular number volumetric concentration (1010molec./cm3), c is ground monitoring NO2Or CH2O concentration (ug/m3), 1012By g/ cm3Be converted to ug/m3, M NO2Or CH2O molal weight, NA are Avgadro constant (6.02*1023Molec./mol), 46g/mol is NO2Molal weight, 30g/mol CH2The molal weight of O.NO near the ground2And CH2O concentration such as Fig. 3 (b), 3 (c) shown in.
3. being estimated based on GWR surface ozone concentration.
O3st=β0,st+β1,stCH2Ost+β2,stNO2,st+β3,stUVst+εst, O3stIt is the ground level ozone of grid cell s in month t The monthly average value of concentration；β0,stIndicate location-specific intercept；β1,st-β2,st-β3,stIt is the slope of impact factor specific position； CH2OstIt is from CH2The ground CH of O column estimation2O concentration；NO2,stIt is from NO2The ground NO of column estimation2Concentration；UVstIndicate ultraviolet Beta radiation data；εstIt is the error term of grid cell s in month t.O3Related coefficient between concentration and independent variable is as shown in table 2, Shown in surface ozone concentration such as Fig. 3 (a).
4. accuracy evaluation.Determination coefficient (the R of simulation model2), mean absolute error (| O3,Estimation–O3, Measurement |) percentage of (AE) and absolute error (| O3,Estimation–O3,Measurement|/O3, Measurement × 100%) (PAE) be used to assess the performance of simulation model.Precision evaluation the result shows that, GWR model is to moon O3 Concentration precision with higher (analog result R2=0.81, absolute error (AE)=7.38ug/m3, cross validation R2=0.77, AE=8.20ug/m3).Error distribution is as shown in Figure 4.
Table 1 is NO2And CH2O concentration profile analog result.Table 2 is O3Related coefficient between concentration and independent variable.
Note that the above is only a better embodiment of the present invention and the applied technical principle.Specific embodiment and non-limiting The invention, any unsubstantiality modification and polishing carried out on the basis of this again, in the protection of claims of the present invention Within the scope of.

Claims (2)

1. a kind of surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method, it is based on Geographical Weighted Regression Model (GWR), which is characterized in that including Following steps:
Step 1: MOZART-4 simulates NO2And CH2O profile step；Specifically:
MOZART-4 simulates NO2And CH2O profile, MOZART-4 data vertical direction are divided into 56 layers, NO on different height2Or CH2Gaussian function distribution is obeyed between O concentration and elevation, using 2~6 Gaussian functions to NO on each grid2With point of elevation Cloth is fitted；Its citation form are as follows: Indicate NO2Or CH2O is in atmosphere height h The concentration at place；A indicates that amplitude, b indicate mass center or position, and c refers to peak width, and n is the order of fitting；
Step 2: ozone precursor NO2And CH2O concentration above the ground step；Specifically: It is by MOZART- The NO of 4 bottoms obtained2And CH2O concentration, ΩOIt is the troposphere column NO that OMI is provided2Or CH2O concentration, ΩMIt is by MOZART- The 4 troposphere column concentration datas obtained；NO at about 50 meters of selection2Or CH2The bottom of O concentration, almost MOZART-4 simulation As a result, as ground NO2Or CH2O concentration；
Step 3: being based on the surface ozone concentration estimation steps of Geographical Weighted Regression Model (GWR)；Specifically:
Geographical Weighted Regression Model (GWR) generates the continuous surface of parameter value by the linear regression of localized forms, to simulate sky Between the relationship that changes；Geographical Weighted Regression Model (GWR) is by combined ground ozone and falls in the influence in each target bandwidth The factor constructs these individual models；There is an independent Geographical Weighted Regression Model (GWR) every month, formula is as follows: O3st=β0,st+β1,stCH2Ost+β2,stNO2,st+β3,stUVst+εst, O3stIt is the moon of the ground level ozone concentrations of grid cell s in month t Average value；β0,stIndicate location-specific intercept；β1,st、β2,st、β3,stIt is the slope of impact factor specific position；CH2OstBe from CH2The ground CH of O column estimation2O concentration；NO2,stIt is from NO2The ground NO of column estimation2Concentration；UVstIndicate ultraviolet radiation number According to；εstIt is the error term of grid cell s in month t；
Step 4: accuracy evaluation step.
2. surface ozone Concentration Estimation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: accuracy evaluation step: mould Determination coefficient (the R of analog model2), mean absolute error (| O3,Estimation–O3, Measurement |) (AE) and absolute mistake Difference percentage (| O3,Estimation–O3,Measurement|/O3, Measurement × 100%) and (PAE) for assessing The performance of simulation model；The data set of every month is two groups, wherein 80% data record is used for model construction, remaining 20% use In accuracy evaluation.
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