CN109583766A - Decontrol power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique under increment distribution business background - Google Patents
Decontrol power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique under increment distribution business background Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making techniques under a kind of relieving increment distribution business background, are analyzed and predicted including the electricity needs to power grid enterprises;The investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated;Decision is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;Reasonable evaluation is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;The decision of increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed is modified, to guarantee that increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed meets the requirements.This power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique decontroled under increment distribution business background provided by the invention, a kind of complete increment distribution project ancillary investment decision scheme is provided, it is calculated by scientific reliable demonstration with objective, the ancillary investment decision of increment distribution project is realized, to provide the evaluation and aid decision of reliable science.
Description
Technical field
Present invention relates particularly to power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making techniques under a kind of relieving increment distribution business background.
Background technique
With the development of economic technology, electric energy has become essential secondary energy sources in people's production and life,
Endless convenience is brought to people's production and life.
With the development of electric system, the increment distribution business of electric system has also been decontroled.The investment of power distribution network project
The problem of decision is a multiple target, multi-field, more uncertain factors, how the investment construction of reasonable arrangement power distribution network project,
It is the grid company practical problem urgently to be resolved in the case where competitiveness matches sale of electricity market environment.
But increment distribution investment portfolio is due to being related to the construction of developing market power distribution network, investment, the multiple links of operation,
Process is complicated, and lacks corresponding implementation operation rules and regulations, therefore there is no the auxiliary of corresponding science to determine for each grid company
Plan method, so that the increment distribution investment portfolio of each grid company is in primary exploratory stage, while but also increment
Efficiency of distribution investment portfolio etc. is more low.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide one kind to provide reliable science for the increment distribution investment portfolio of power grid enterprises
Evaluation and aid decision decontrol increment distribution business background under power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique.
This power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique decontroled under increment distribution business background provided by the invention, including
Following steps:
S1. the electricity needs of power grid enterprises is analyzed and predicted;
S2. the investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated;
S3. decision is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;
S4. reasonable evaluation is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;
S5. according to the obtained reasonable evaluation of step S4 as a result, to the decision of increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed into
Row amendment, to guarantee that increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed meets the requirements.
The electricity needs of power grid enterprises is analyzed and predicted described in step S1, is specifically included to Regional Economic Development
Situation is analyzed and predicted, and is analyzed and predicted to the management condition of increment power distribution network and is advised to the development of increment power distribution network
It draws and is analyzed and predicted.
The investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated described in step S2, specifically include to power grid enterprises' profit structure into
Row measuring and calculating, calculates the whole profit situation of power grid enterprises, calculates to the similar projects profit situation of power grid enterprises,
The current asset debt ratio of power grid enterprises calculate and calculate to the following annual loan of power grid enterprises is specified, thus
Finally appraise and decide the investment capacity of power grid enterprises.
The asset-liability ratio of power grid enterprises is calculated using following formula:
R in formulaaFor the asset-liability ratio of power grid enterprises, LtFor the total liability at the beginning of the year of power grid enterprises, LmExist for power grid enterprises
Maximum limit on lendings in 1 year, PlFor the loan value that power grid enterprises should repay, AtTotal assets at the beginning of for power grid enterprises, PnFor electricity
Net 1 year net profit of enterprise.
The investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated using following formula:
C=πt+D+Lm
C is the actual investment ability of power grid enterprises in formula, in terms of year;πtFor the minimum income of expection of investment project;D is to throw
The depreciation of money project;LmFor maximum limit on lendings obtained by power grid enterprises.
Decision is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed described in step S3, specifically include project objective it is determining,
Programme establishment and ad hoc planning establishment.
The project objective determines, is guiding with power system reform policy, with power network development status and is planned to base
Plinth on the basis of meeting regional economic development electricity needs and takes into account the principle of appropriate advance, and Optimum Synthesis service ability is bright
True power grid enterprises' increment distribution business value proposition and project objective.
The described programme establishment, specifically include optimization corresponding voltage grade load point, improve topological structure of electric and
Project grading planning by stages.
The ad hoc planning establishment specifically includes scheduling planning, communication system planning, relay protection planning, message tube
Reason planning, power optimization planning and control scheme optimization.
Reasonable evaluation described in step S4 specifically includes project feasibility analysis, project appraisal and preference ordering and city
Field participates in differentiated control.
The project feasibility analysis, specially comprehensively considers the technical feasibility and economic benefits of power distribution network investment
Property, assessment is carried out to candidate item and invests primary election, forms preliminary suggestion for investment book and investment written decision, is thrown for subsequent project
Money evaluation lays the foundation with the development preferably to work.
The project appraisal and preference ordering, specially on the basis of project primary election, in order to have in investment decision
Body refines every evaluation index, from power distribution network investment angle design respective item evaluation and sort method, matches to by primary election
Electric grid investment project carries out refinement evaluation sequence
The market participates in differentiated control, specially based on the evaluation analysis to investment project, establishes market and participates in dividing
Grade detail, so that it is determined that corresponding market participates in strategy.
The decision of increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed is modified described in step S5, specifically includes project objective
Revision, programme revision and ad hoc planning revision.
This power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique decontroled under increment distribution business background provided by the invention, provides
A kind of complete increment distribution project ancillary investment decision scheme is calculated with objective by scientific reliable demonstration, is realized
The ancillary investment decision of increment distribution project, to provide the evaluation and aid decision of reliable science.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method flow diagram of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
It is as shown in Figure 1 the method flow diagram of the method for the present invention: this relieving increment distribution business back provided by the invention
Power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique under scape, includes the following steps:
S1. the electricity needs of power grid enterprises is analyzed and predicted;It specifically includes and Regional Economic Development situation is carried out
Analysis and prediction, are analyzed and predicted the management condition of increment power distribution network and divide the development plan of increment power distribution network
Analysis and prediction;
Meanwhile in the specific implementation, it needs to consider following influence factor:
1) influence of distributed generation resource access:
Currently, in conjunction with centralized and distributed power supply Modes of Competition be increment electrical distribution market develop trend;Point
On the one hand its power output has randomness and fluctuation to cloth power supply, increases the unstability of region load;On the other hand it is distributed
Formula power supply impacts load prediction due to the method for operation generated power for their own use with remaining electricity online;
For the distributed generation resource being incorporated into the power networks, due to its scale difference, the voltage class for accessing power grid is not also identical, when
When of certain scale, its load prediction is influenced on the regional power grid of relevant voltage grade, there is fluctuation greatly, the strong spy of impact
Point reduces load prediction precision.Simultaneously existing load forecasting method be predicted based on different voltages grade, therefore this
Kind impact also influences whether the load prediction of other voltage class.For the distributed generation resource not being incorporated into the power networks, due to its fluctuation
Property, it is difficult to it predicts that capacitance or electricity not enough lean on power grid power supply capacity more than the online after it is personal, therefore also influences whether to bear
Lotus prediction;
2) influence of Price Mechanisms:
The new models such as competitive electricity price decontrols, tou power price and Spot Price occur, so that extensive power consumer can be with
It is selected according to the Price Mechanisms of different electricity power enterprises, it also can be with negotiated sales electricity price;Meanwhile casual household and small user can examine
Consider the demand adjustment consumption habit of oneself;So influence of the new Price Mechanisms to electricity consumption further increases, distribution will increase
The complexity of net power prediction;
3) influence of Demand-side diversification energy:
On the one hand, diversified energy resource, such as electricity price excitation, interruptible load, energy-storage system will occur in Demand-side
And electric car etc.;On the other hand with the iterative method of intelligent distribution network concept, it is traditional it is unidirectional with energy load to comprising
The user interaction type load direction of distributed generation resource develops;Therefore these Demand-side resources participate in during demand side management,
User has right to choose, while also having very big change with energy characteristic, it will influences electric load level, it is therefore desirable to more suitable
Suitable Demand-side prediction model;
S2. the investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated;It specifically includes and power grid enterprises' profit structure is calculated, it is right
The whole profit situation of power grid enterprises is calculated, and calculates to the similar projects profit situation of power grid enterprises, looks forward to power grid
The current asset debt ratio of industry calculate and calculate to the following annual loan of power grid enterprises is specified, to finally appraise and decide
The investment capacity of power grid enterprises;
Enterprise investment Capability Measurement is the profit situation by calculating enterprise, determines total profit;Pass through enterprise simultaneously
Annual financial plan determines the following annual loan amount and other funds sources, finally appraises and decides the total investment capacity of enterprise.
By calculating to power grid enterprises' investment capacity, can preferably clear scale of investment and project duration, be project funds pipe
Control provides theoretical foundation;
In the specific implementation, the asset-liability ratio of power grid enterprises is calculated using following formula:
R in formulaaFor the asset-liability ratio of power grid enterprises, LtFor the total liability at the beginning of the year of power grid enterprises, LmExist for power grid enterprises
Maximum limit on lendings in 1 year, PlFor the loan value that power grid enterprises should repay, AtTotal assets at the beginning of for power grid enterprises, PnFor electricity
Net 1 year net profit of enterprise;Meanwhile the constraint of asset-liability ratio (in terms of year) can be set to annual growth by 1%, most very much not surpass
Cross 80%;
The investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated using following formula:
C=πt+D+Lm
C is the actual investment ability of power grid enterprises in formula, in terms of year;πtFor the minimum income of expection of investment project;D is to throw
The depreciation of money project;LmFor maximum limit on lendings obtained by power grid enterprises;
S3. decision is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;Specifically include project objective determination, programme is compiled
System and ad hoc planning establishment;
Project objective determines to be specifically with power network development status and to be planned to base for guiding with power system reform policy
Plinth on the basis of meeting regional economic development electricity needs and takes into account the principle of appropriate advance, and Optimum Synthesis service ability is bright
True power grid enterprises' increment distribution business value proposition and project objective;
Programme establishment specifically includes optimization corresponding voltage grade load point, improves topological structure of electric and project by stages
Grading planning;
Ad hoc planning establishment specifically include scheduling planning, communication system planning, relay protection planning, information management plan,
Power optimization planning and control scheme optimization;
S4. reasonable evaluation is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;Specifically include project feasibility analysis, item
Mesh evaluation participates in differentiated control with preference ordering and market;
In the specific implementation, project feasibility analysis is specially to comprehensively consider the technical feasibility and economy of power distribution network investment
Responsiveness carries out assessment to candidate item and invests primary election, forms preliminary suggestion for investment book and investment written decision, is subsequent item
The mesh investment appraisal lays the foundation with the development preferably to work;
Project appraisal and preference ordering are specially on the basis of project primary election, in order to which in investment decision, specifically refinement is each
Item evaluation index is invested from power distribution network investment angle design respective item evaluation and sort method to by the power distribution network of primary election
Project carries out refinement evaluation sequence;
It is specially to be established market based on the evaluation analysis to investment project and participated in classification detail that market, which participates in differentiated control,
So that it is determined that corresponding market participates in strategy;
S5. according to the obtained reasonable evaluation of step S4 as a result, to the decision of increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed into
Row amendment, to guarantee that increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed meets the requirements;In the specific implementation, including project objective is repaired
It orders, programme revision, ad hoc planning revision, wherein the project investment of increment distribution is initiated, should be according to power grid enterprises' project investment
Initiate administrative provisions, administrative rules is initiated in increment distribution project investment, development, propulsion increment distribution project implementation.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique decontroled under increment distribution business background, includes the following steps:
S1. the electricity needs of power grid enterprises is analyzed and predicted;
S2. the investment capacity of power grid enterprises is calculated;
S3. decision is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;
S4. reasonable evaluation is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed;
S5. according to the obtained reasonable evaluation of step S4 as a result, being repaired to the decision of increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed
Just, to guarantee that increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed meets the requirements.
2. the power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique according to claim 1 decontroled under increment distribution business background,
It is characterized in that being analyzed and predicted the electricity needs of power grid enterprises described in step S1, specifically include to Regional Economic Development
Situation is analyzed and predicted, and is analyzed and predicted to the management condition of increment power distribution network and is advised to the development of increment power distribution network
It draws and is analyzed and predicted.
3. the power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision-making technique according to claim 1 decontroled under increment distribution business background,
Be characterized in that calculating the investment capacity of power grid enterprises described in step S2, specifically include to power grid enterprises' profit structure into
Row measuring and calculating, calculates the whole profit situation of power grid enterprises, calculates to the similar projects profit situation of power grid enterprises,
The current asset debt ratio of power grid enterprises calculate and calculate to the following annual loan of power grid enterprises is specified, thus
Finally appraise and decide the investment capacity of power grid enterprises.
4. power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision under relieving increment distribution business background described according to claim 1~one of 3
Method, it is characterised in that decision is carried out to increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed described in step S3, specifically includes project mesh
Mark determines, programme establishment and ad hoc planning are worked out.
5. power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision under relieving increment distribution business background described according to claim 1~one of 3
Method, it is characterised in that the project objective determines, is guiding with power system reform policy, with power network development status and rule
It divides basis into, on the basis of meeting regional economic development electricity needs and takes into account the principle of appropriate advance, Optimum Synthesis service
Ability specifies power grid enterprises' increment distribution business value proposition and project objective.
6. power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision under relieving increment distribution business background described according to claim 1~one of 3
Method, it is characterised in that the programme establishment specifically includes optimization corresponding voltage grade load point, improves power network topology
Structure and project grading planning by stages.
7. power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision under relieving increment distribution business background described according to claim 1~one of 3
Method, it is characterised in that the described ad hoc planning establishment, specifically include scheduling planning, communication system planning, relay protection planning,
Information management planning, power optimization planning and control scheme optimization.
8. power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision under relieving increment distribution business background described according to claim 1~one of 3
Method, it is characterised in that reasonable evaluation described in step S4 specifically includes project feasibility analysis, project appraisal and preferred row
Sequence and market participate in differentiated control.
9. power grid enterprises' ancillary investment decision under relieving increment distribution business background described according to claim 1~one of 3
Method, it is characterised in that the decision of increment distribution investment portfolio to be analyzed is modified described in step S5, is specifically included
Project objective revision, programme revision and ad hoc planning revision.
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Cited By (1)
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CN114219225A (en) * | 2021-11-24 | 2022-03-22 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司怀远县供电公司 | Power grid investment benefit evaluation system and evaluation method based on multi-source data |
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CN101179195A (en) * | 2007-11-15 | 2008-05-14 | 上海交通大学 | Power distribution network planning scheme assistant decision system |
CN106684870A (en) * | 2017-03-27 | 2017-05-17 | 国网山东省电力公司夏津县供电公司 | Power supply scheme formulation method and device |
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CN101179195A (en) * | 2007-11-15 | 2008-05-14 | 上海交通大学 | Power distribution network planning scheme assistant decision system |
CN106684870A (en) * | 2017-03-27 | 2017-05-17 | 国网山东省电力公司夏津县供电公司 | Power supply scheme formulation method and device |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
Title |
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CN114219225A (en) * | 2021-11-24 | 2022-03-22 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司怀远县供电公司 | Power grid investment benefit evaluation system and evaluation method based on multi-source data |
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