CN109583740A - A method of critical index is inversely calculated by investing amount - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of methods that critical index is inversely calculated by investing amount, comprising the following steps: S1, finds correlation module, establishes a scale of investment system；S2, the numerical value for setting other modules calculate the numerical value of financing free cash net flow module；The different restricted model of S3, selection, other data of setting financing free cash net flow module and upper one year are consistent, calculate asset-liability ratio or total profit；S4, the EBIT in free cash net flow module of financing, business activities net cash flow module is established into equilibrium relationships, calculates EBIT；S5, average sales rate of electricity is calculated by the power selling income in EBIT；S6, sale of electricity cost in EBIT is calculated；S7, power purchase unit cost is obtained by sale of electricity cost；S8, power transmission and distribution cost is calculated, the amortization charge of the amortization charge of power transmission and distribution cost and business activities net cash flow module is established into equilibrium relationships, calculates amortization charge.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power domain more particularly to a kind of methods that critical index is inversely calculated by investing amount.
Background technique
Reverse measuring and calculating is transformed to the measuring and calculating of the grid company investment capacity, on the basis of electric grid investment Capability Measurement,
By determining enterprise investment amount, confirm under this investment amount, total profit, asset-liability ratio, sales rate of electricity, power purchase electricity
The respective estimated situation of change of the indexs such as valence, amortization charge.
Reverse measuring and calculating calculates total profit, asset-liability ratio under the scale of investment etc. one by given scale of investment
Serial financial index.In practice, the selection of numerous items is often faced, each project has many capital projects again, these
Scheme or the different technology of use, technique and equipment, or have different scale and seating position.When these schemes are in technology
On it is all feasible, when economically also all reasonable, a variety of capital projects just seem particularly significant than choosing and evaluation of economic benefit.By inverse
It can be realized a variety of capital projects than choosing and evaluation of economic benefit to measuring and calculating function, preferred plan can be selected for grid company,
The investment decision for making science provides referential opinion, so that it is guaranteed that the sustainable development of electric power enterprise.
Summary of the invention
Object of the present invention is to provide a kind of measuring and calculating that critical index is improved in grid company investment according to the demand
Rate and the reverse measuring method for calculating accuracy.
To achieve the goals above, the technical scheme is that
A method of critical index is inversely calculated by investing amount, comprising the following steps:
S1, it finds the financing free cash net flow module for influencing scale of investment, business activities net cash flow module, throw
Provide free cash net flow module, minimum safe provision changes volume module, other activities generate net cash flow module；And according to
These modules establish a scale of investment system；
S2, in scale of investment system set business activities net cash flow module, investment activity net cash flow module,
Minimum safe provision changes volume module, other activities generate the numerical value of net cash flow module, calculates and melts in conjunction with investment amount
Provide the numerical value of free cash net flow module；
The different restricted model of S3, selection, sets other data in financing free cash net flow module and upper one year
Corresponding data it is consistent, calculate asset-liability ratio or total profit；
S4, setting financing free cash net flow module, other data in business activities net cash flow module with it is upper
1 year corresponding data is consistent, by the EBIT and business activities net cash flow in free cash net flow module of financing
EBIT in module establishes an equilibrium relationships；EBIT is calculated；
S5, the EBIT obtained according to step S4 set other data and the phase of upper one year in EBIT
It answers data consistent, calculates the power selling income in EBIT, and average sale electricity is calculated in the electricity sales amount by predicting
Valence；
S6, the EBIT obtained according to step S4 set other data and the phase of upper one year in EBIT
It answers data consistent, calculates the sale of electricity cost in EBIT；
S7, the sale of electricity cost obtained according to step S6, set cost of electricity-generating and power transmission and distribution cost in sale of electricity cost with it is upper
1 year corresponding data is consistent, and the purchases strategies in sale of electricity cost are calculated, and purchase is calculated in the purchase of electricity by predicting
Electric unit cost；
S8, the sale of electricity cost obtained according to step S6 set cost of electricity-generating and purchases strategies and upper one in sale of electricity cost
The corresponding data in year is consistent, and the power transmission and distribution cost in sale of electricity cost is calculated；By the amortization charge and warp in power transmission and distribution cost
Amortization charge in battalion's free cash net flow module establishes an equilibrium relationships, and amortization charge is calculated.
Further, in step S3, when the restricted model used is asset-liability ratio restricted model, financing activity is existing
Golden net flow module by asset-liability ratio, average finance costs rate, equity containing interest, financing rate in one's hands, turn over investment return, on
Year total liabilities, last year liability with interest remaining sum composition；Wherein, average finance costs rate, equity containing interest, the rate in one's hands of financing, on
It pays investment return, last year total liabilities, last year liability with interest remaining sum to be consistent with the corresponding data of upper one year, money is calculated
Produce debt ratio；When the restricted model used is total profit restricted model, free cash net flow module of financing is by turning over
Investment return, last year liability with interest remaining sum, EBIT, total profit, interest, income tax rate, current year total liabilities group
At wherein turning over investment return, last year liability with interest remaining sum, EBIT, interest, income tax rate, current year balance of debt
It is consistent with the corresponding data of upper one year, total profit is calculated.
Further, in step S4, when the restricted model used is asset-liability ratio restricted model, by equity containing interest
In EBIT and business activities net cash flow module in EBIT establish an equilibrium relationships；When use
When restricted model is total profit restricted model, by the EBIT in financing free cash net flow module, business activities
The EBIT in EBIT, interest in net cash flow module, the EBIT in current year total liabilities are total
It is same to establish an equilibrium relationships.
Compared with prior art, the advantages and positive effects of the present invention are:
The present invention can go out the critical index under the investment amount by investing amount with Accurate Prediction, to predict electricity
Following state of development is netted, certain booster action can be provided in investing to power grid enterprises；It is predicted in power grid enterprises
When the critical index come is not able to satisfy future investments demand, power grid enterprises can adjust according to the actual situation, to meet
The realization of investment demand in future.Reverse measuring method in the present invention can calculate power grid enterprises according to certain investment
The variable quantity of each critical index in the case that degree is invested, this provides help for the realization of prediction electric grid investment ability,
In the case where facing Mutiple Choice, preferred plan can be selected for grid company, the investment decision for making science provides reference
Property opinion.
Method in the present invention can be updated in progress by datacycle to be calculated for a long time, provides the reasonable value of each index
Section, to reasonably adjust relevant investment parameter.This method has stronger comprehensive, generality, and main function is for electricity
Net project decision and control of investment provide foundation, can rationally identify project and invest parameter, provide the reasonable value of each index
Section, for improving the accuracy of electric grid investment estimation, the reasonable assessment of power network construction project, correct decisions with important meaning
Justice.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below
There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this
Some embodiments of invention without any creative labor, may be used also for those of ordinary skill in the art
To obtain other drawings based on these drawings.
Fig. 1 is that block schematic illustration is inversely calculated in the asset-liability ratio of asset-liability ratio restricted model；
Fig. 2 is that the average sales rate of electricity of asset-liability ratio restricted model inversely calculates block schematic illustration；
Fig. 3 is that the power purchase unit cost of asset-liability ratio restricted model inversely calculates block schematic illustration；
Fig. 4 is that the amortization charge of asset-liability ratio restricted model inversely calculates block schematic illustration；
Fig. 5 is that the total profit of total profit restricted model inversely calculates block schematic illustration；
Fig. 6 is that the average sales rate of electricity of total profit restricted model inversely calculates block schematic illustration；
Fig. 7 is that the power purchase unit cost of total profit restricted model inversely calculates block schematic illustration；
Fig. 8 is that the amortization charge of total profit restricted model inversely calculates block schematic illustration.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Three core index that reverse measuring and calculating function is related to are as follows:
Forecasting of profit target: target profit is that enterprise has to pass through the profit water for making great efforts can to reach following certain period
It is flat.Target profit prediction refers to the objective of the struggle for expecting and determining that the following enterprise should reach in terms of profit according to certain method
Process.Target profit prediction is the core of forecasting of profit.The basic goal of target profit prediction is exactly, in view of enterprise's life
On the basis of development is deposited to the demand of profit, the subjective and objective condition of enterprise is fully considered, propose that following certain period is engaged in production
Realized profit target is answered in business activities.
Target is predicted in asset-liability ratio: asset-liability ratio is percentage of the end of term total liabilities divided by total assets, also
It is the proportionate relationship of total liabilities and total assets.Asset-liability ratio be reflected in total assets have much ratios be by borrow money come
It raises funds, the degree that enterprise protects creditor's equity in clearance can also be measured.This index of asset-liability ratio reflects credits
Capital provided by people accounts for the ratio of all capital, also referred to as trade on equity ratio.How many is in expression company total assets
It is raised by debt, which is to evaluate the overall target of corporate debt level.It is simultaneously also that a measurement company utilizes debt
Power people's fund is carried on the work the index of mobility, also reflects the safe coefficient that creditor offers loans.
Actual investment amount: actual investment be exactly fixed price calculate or on inflation-adjusted basis after investment.It is equal to
Current year currency total investment subtracts the investment increased and decreased by price fluctuations.
Forward direction measuring and calculating be target profit, asset-liability ratio limitation and assume electricity sales amount growth rate constraint condition under, with
Premised on fund security provision, the scale of investment upper limit that financial capability can support.And inversely calculate, it goes, passes through around
Given scale of investment calculates a series of indexs such as total profit, the asset-liability ratio under the scale of investment, is used for a variety of investments
Scheme comparison and evaluation of economic benefit.Forward direction measuring and calculating and the combination inversely calculated preferably meet the forecast demand of investment, tool
There are stronger feasibility and versatility.
Above description is only the general introduction of reverse measuring and calculating technical solution, in order to better understand the technology hand inversely calculated
Section, and can be practiced according to above content, and in order to allow the above and other objects, features and advantages inversely calculated can
It is clearer and more comprehensible, it is special below to lift specific embodiment.
In electric grid investment Capability Measurement, by given scale of investment can calculate total profit under this scale,
A series of indexs such as asset-liability ratio, so as to realize the ratio choosing of different schemes.In forward direction measuring and calculating, the measuring and calculating of the investment capacity
There are two types of modes, and one is calculate under conditions of asset-liability ratio constrains to the investment capacity；Another kind is total in profit
The investment capacity is calculated under volume constraint.In contrast, in the case where the investment capacity is given, also there are two types of sides for reverse measuring and calculating
Formula.One is asset-liability ratio and sales rate of electricity, purchases strategies, folding are inversely calculated under the model that asset-liability ratio constrains
The indexs such as old expense；Another kind be total profit constraint model under inversely calculate total profit, sales rate of electricity, power purchase at
The indexs such as sheet, amortization charge.
1. under the basis that the investment capacity determines, the index inversely calculated by asset-liability ratio restricted model.
(1) asset-liability ratio
During Corporate finance, an important factor for asset-liability ratio is an influence Corporate finance.Melt in power grid enterprises
During money, asset-liability ratio and average finance costs rate, equity containing interest, financing rate in one's hands, to turn over investment return, last year negative
Debt total value, last year liability with interest remaining sum one react on financing free cash net flow, and the expected asset-liability ratio of enterprise is higher, enterprise
The fund that industry financing activity obtains is more.
In the case where scale of investment gives situation, during reverse measuring and calculating asset-liability ratio, financing free cash net flow is determined
Amount is top priority.Scale of investment is mainly by financing free cash net flow, business activities net cash flow, investment activity cash
Net flow, minimum safe provision change volume, other activities generate the several module compositions of net cash flow, determine in scale of investment
In the case of, financing free cash net flow can be calculated by assuming remaining cash flow.In financing activity
Net cash flow determine in the case where, can by setting other values it is constant in the case where inversely calculate asset-liability ratio, such as
Shown in Fig. 1.
(2) sales rate of electricity
In investment capacity measuring and calculating, sales rate of electricity refers to power grid without the average sales rate of electricity after valence tax.Sale electricity
Valence is the principal element for constituting power grid power selling income, and power selling income is the main source of power grid profit, how much generals of power selling income
The influence to electric grid investment ability can be generated from every aspect.It is net that power grid EBIT not only influences power grid business activities cash
Flow can also have an impact Power Grid Financing free cash net flow.
During sales rate of electricity is inversely calculated, the numerical value of EBIT is the part for needing to determine first.True
Determine in several modules of scale of investment, EBIT is in both financing free cash net flow, business activities net cash flow
In all play important influence.In financing free cash net flow, EBIT is by influencing equity containing interest
To be had an impact to financing free cash net flow；In business activities net cash flow, EBIT act directly on through
In the cash flow that battalion's activity generates.During reverse measuring and calculating, EBIT can first be calculated by the two modules,
And then power selling income is calculated by EBIT, average sales rate of electricity is finally obtained, as shown in Figure 2.
(3) power purchase unit cost
Power purchase unit cost refers to the expense that electricity is paid when every megawatt after not tax included price.With sales rate of electricity phase
Seemingly, power purchase unit cost influences EBIT at original by influencing sale of electricity, finally acts on the investment capacity of measuring and calculating.
Inversely calculate in sales rate of electricity it is similar, when power purchase unit cost is inversely calculated, and by first measuring and calculating breath it is pre-tax
Profit passes through EBIT in turn and calculates sale of electricity cost, finally obtains power purchase unit cost, calculating process and sales rate of electricity
Calculate it is similar, as shown in Figure 3.
(4) amortization charge
Amortization charge is that fixed assets are transferred to the part value gone in product cost because of abrasion in use.
For power grid enterprises, fixed assets are by transmission line of electricity assets, transformer equipment assets, distribution line and asset of equipments and other moneys
Composition is produced, this is also the source of power grid enterprises' amortization charge.In the measuring and calculating of the investment capacity, on the one hand amortization charge acts as defeated
The constituent element of distribution cost finally acts on above EBIT to influence sale of electricity cost, is on the one hand that business activities are existing
The chief component of golden net flow.
It, can also be right because amortization charge not only influences business activities net cash flow in the reverse measuring and calculating of amortization charge
Financing free cash net flow has an impact.Therefore when determining amortization charge, should consider in business activities net cash flow
Amortization charge, it is also contemplated that in EBIT amortization charge effect.Amortization charge is first set as variable, passes through foundation etc.
Formula relationship comprehensively considers relationship of the amortization charge in investment capacity measuring and calculating, and finally counter to solve amortization charge, here it is required
Amortization charge reverse measuring and calculating value, as shown in Figure 4.
2. under the basis that the investment capacity determines, the index inversely calculated by total profit restricted model.
(1) total profit
Profit is the final financial result that enterprise passes through that production and operating activities are realized over a period to come, is the pure receipts of enterprise
Enter one of constitution content.In the investment capacity, total profit refers to the forecasting of profit target of power grid, and forecasting of profit target will
Power Grid Financing free cash net flow is had an impact.Under total profit restricted model, scale of investment is still to be lived by financing
Dynamic net cash flow, business activities net cash flow, investment activity net cash flow, minimum safe provision change volume and other
The net cash flow composition that activity generates.Different from the model of asset-liability ratio constraint, free cash net flow of financing is in this mould
Constituent element changes under type.In the case where asset-liability ratio is without constraint, it may be considered that appropriate dissaving come into
The major influence factors of row business activities, free cash net flow of financing at this time change.
Carry out total profit reverse measuring and calculating when and asset-liability ratio inversely calculate it is similar, first have to determine financing live
The value of dynamic net cash flow, then calculates the numerical value of total profit according to financing free cash net flow.And asset-liability ratio
Unlike reverse measuring and calculating, financing free cash net flow composition changes, as shown in Figure 5.
(2) sales rate of electricity
Sales rate of electricity is still to influence to cease pre-tax benefit by influencing power selling income in the model that total profit constrains
Profit, finally acts in the measuring and calculating of scale of investment.Except that EBIT is to financing under total profit restraint condition
The influence of free cash net flow is different, and in such a mode, EBIT is from many aspects to financing activity net cash flow
It has an impact.
It is still to need to calculate EBIT first when inversely measuring and calculating sales rate of electricity.Total profit constraint
Model under, the measuring and calculating of EBIT is particularly important, in entire model, EBIT financing free cash net flow
Middle to play important leverage, EBIT is more, and financing free cash net flow is bigger.Calculate EBIT
When, to be calculated by two modules, as shown in Figure 6.
(3) power purchase unit cost
The calculating of power purchase unit cost is similar with the power purchase unit cost calculating under asset-liability ratio restricted model, total in profit
EBIT calculating process calculates consistent with EBIT when measuring and calculating sales rate of electricity under volume model, as shown in Figure 7.
(4) amortization charge
Under the model of total profit constraint, amortization charge not only works in business activities net cash flow, still
Constitute the basis of EBIT.When calculating amortization charge, both need to consider the component part of net cash flow in business activities,
Find out the amortization charge in EBIT under this basis again, the calculation and sales rate of electricity of EBIT and average
Purchases strategies are consistent, as shown in Figure 8.
During calculating to the investment capacity, the investment capacity in Accurate Prediction power grid future can give power grid enterprises
Certain supporting function is provided in investing.If the investment capacity of power grid enterprises' future anticipation is not able to satisfy future investments and needs
It asks, power grid can adjust according to the actual situation, to meet the realization of investment demand in future.The purpose inversely calculated is
In the case where power grid future is calculated according to predicting that the investment capacity is invested, each index needs the case where changing, this is prediction
The realization offer of electric grid investment ability is possible, in the case where facing Mutiple Choice, can select preferred plan for grid company,
The investment decision for making science provides referential opinion.
Reverse measuring and calculating function is updated in progress by datacycle to be calculated for a long time, provides the reasonable value interval of each index,
To reasonably adjust relevant investment parameter.This function has stronger comprehensive, generality, and main function is for power grid project
Decision and control of investment provide foundation.It rationally identifies project and invests parameter, provides the reasonable value interval of each index, for improving
The accuracy of electric grid investment estimation, reasonable assessment, the correct decisions of power network construction project are of great significance.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of method for inversely calculating critical index by investing amount, it is characterised in that: the following steps are included:
S1, the financing free cash net flow module for influencing scale of investment, business activities net cash flow module, investment work are found
Dynamic net cash flow module, minimum safe provision change volume module, other activities generate net cash flow module；And according to these
Module establishes a scale of investment system；
S2, business activities net cash flow module is set in scale of investment system, is investment activity net cash flow module, minimum
Safe provision changes volume module, other activities generate the numerical value of net cash flow module, calculates financing in conjunction with investment amount and lives
The numerical value of dynamic net cash flow module；
The different restricted model of S3, selection, sets other data and the phase of upper one year in financing free cash net flow module
It answers data consistent, calculates asset-liability ratio or total profit；
S4, setting financing free cash net flow module, other data in business activities net cash flow module and upper one year
Corresponding data it is consistent, by finance free cash net flow module in EBIT and business activities net cash flow module
In EBIT establish an equilibrium relationships；EBIT is calculated；
S5, the EBIT obtained according to step S4 set other data in EBIT and the respective counts of upper one year
According to consistent, the power selling income in EBIT is calculated, and average sales rate of electricity is calculated in the electricity sales amount by predicting；
S6, the EBIT obtained according to step S4 set other data in EBIT and the respective counts of upper one year
According to consistent, the sale of electricity cost in EBIT is calculated；
S7, the sale of electricity cost obtained according to step S6 set the cost of electricity-generating in sale of electricity cost and power transmission and distribution cost and upper one year
Corresponding data it is consistent, be calculated the purchases strategies in sale of electricity cost, and power purchase list is calculated in the purchase of electricity by predicting
Position cost；
S8, the sale of electricity cost obtained according to step S6 set cost of electricity-generating and purchases strategies and upper one year in sale of electricity cost
Corresponding data is consistent, and the power transmission and distribution cost in sale of electricity cost is calculated；By the amortization charge in power transmission and distribution cost and manage work
Amortization charge in dynamic net cash flow module establishes an equilibrium relationships, and amortization charge is calculated.
2. the method as described in claim 1 for inversely calculating critical index by investing amount, it is characterised in that: step S3
In, when the restricted model used is asset-liability ratio restricted model, free cash net flow module of financing is by asset-liabilities
Rate, average finance costs rate, equity containing interest, financing rate in one's hands, to turn over investment return, last year total liabilities, last year bearing interest negative
Debt remaining sum composition；Wherein, average finance costs rate, equity containing interest, financing rate in one's hands, turn over investment return, last year be in debt it is total
Volume, last year liability with interest remaining sum are consistent with the corresponding data of upper one year, and asset-liability ratio is calculated；When the constraint of use
When model is total profit restricted model, free cash net flow module of financing is by turning over investment return, last year liability with interest
Remaining sum, EBIT, total profit, interest, income tax rate, current year total liabilities composition, wherein turn over investment return, on
Year liability with interest remaining sum, EBIT, interest, income tax rate, current year balance of debt and the corresponding data of upper one year are kept
Unanimously, total profit is calculated.
3. the method as claimed in claim 2 for inversely calculating critical index by investing amount, it is characterised in that: step S4
In, when the restricted model used is asset-liability ratio restricted model, by the EBIT in equity containing interest and manage work
EBIT in dynamic net cash flow module establishes an equilibrium relationships；When the restricted model used is total profit constraint
When model, by the EBIT in financing free cash net flow module, the breath tax in business activities net cash flow module
The EBIT in EBIT, current year total liabilities in preceding profit, interest establishes an equilibrium relationships jointly.
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| CN110084410A (en) * | 2019-05-31 | 2019-08-02 | 华北电力大学 | A kind of reutilization of the sewage pattern synthesis energy system operation optimization method |
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| CN110084410A (en) * | 2019-05-31 | 2019-08-02 | 华北电力大学 | A kind of reutilization of the sewage pattern synthesis energy system operation optimization method |
| CN110084410B (en) * | 2019-05-31 | 2021-08-03 | 华北电力大学 | Operation optimization method for sewage reuse type comprehensive energy system |
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Effective date of registration: 20190628 Address after: 102206 No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing Applicant after: North China Electric Power University Applicant after: Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. Applicant after: National network economic and Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd. Address before: 102206 North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Huilongguan North Agricultural Road, Changping District, Beijing Applicant before: North China Electric Power University |
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| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20190405 |