CN109559506A - Urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop prediction technique under a kind of rainy weather - Google Patents
Urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop prediction technique under a kind of rainy weather Download PDFInfo
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- CN109559506A CN109559506A CN201811316035.0A CN201811316035A CN109559506A CN 109559506 A CN109559506 A CN 109559506A CN 201811316035 A CN201811316035 A CN 201811316035A CN 109559506 A CN109559506 A CN 109559506A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
- G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
- G08G1/0133—Traffic data processing for classifying traffic situation
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
- G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
- G08G1/0129—Traffic data processing for creating historical data or processing based on historical data
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/065—Traffic control systems for road vehicles by counting the vehicles in a section of the road or in a parking area, i.e. comparing incoming count with outgoing count
Abstract
The present invention provides urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop prediction techniques under a kind of rainy weather, aiming at the problem that urban road traffic flow under rainy weather is difficult to accurate and effective prediction, pass through mining analysis meteorological data, the relationship of traffic flow data, analyze road traffic flow performance characters and rules under rainy weather, construct the urban road discrete traffic flow relational model under different precipitation strength grade, in conjunction with intersection signal control parameter, using the collecting and distributing wave theory analysis delay time at stop of urban road discrete traffic flow, consider undersaturation, the different traffic circulation states such as saturation, provide corresponding delay time at stop calculation method, finally realize the prediction to the urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop under rainy weather.
Description
Technical field
The invention discloses urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop prediction technique under a kind of rainy weather, belong to severe
Stop between urban transportation electric powder prediction under weather.
Background technique
It is one since urban road traffic flow has uncertain, randomness and characteristics, the Traffic Systems such as non-linear
A changeable complication system, these characteristics also increase the difficulty of urban traffic control, and lead to traffic congestion, safety accident etc.
A series of problems.In order to improve the validity of urban traffic control and safety and promote road traffic and accurately perceive and predict energy
Power is reinforced having become the prediction of urban road traffic flow the current complicated traffic system effective monitoring of solution and management
Necessary means.The characteristics such as the real-time fluctuations due to urban traffic flow, road traffic flow Predicting Technique difficult point is primarily directed in short-term
Traffic flow is predicted that existing method typically sets up various prediction models, such as multivariate regression models, time series models, history
Trend model, neural network model, Kalman filter model etc. carry out short-term prediction, since traffic flow is in extraneous disturbing factor shadow
It can occur to fluctuate accordingly under ringing, if Urban Rain weather will affect the normality operation of road traffic, existing method technology is seldom
Consider rainfall scene under forecast of urban traffic, due to can not be effectively estimated with predicting traffic flow operation characteristic, also without
Method carries out targeted traffic administration and control, and under this background, urban highway traffic operational efficiency becomes extremely low
Under, traffic congestion, delay situations such as become more serious.
For the deficiency of existing forecast of urban traffic technology, this method will establish urban road under rainy weather and hand over
Through-flow prediction technique technology, since urban highway traffic is influenced by integrative design intersection, in conjunction with the control signal of intersection,
Consider the road traffic flow performance characters and rules under different precipitation strength grade, the urban road under this weather background is interrupted
The delay time at stop of traffic flow is predicted that urban road traffic flow is effectively estimated and Accurate Prediction energy under raising rainy weather
Power.
Compared with prior art, of the invention to be the following a little:
1) rainfall meteorological data, road traffic flow detection data are merged, fully considers rainy weather to urban traffic flow
It influences, for different rainfall intensity grades, establishes corresponding urban road traffic flow relational model respectively, it can be according to different drops
The corresponding traffic flow relation equation of rain strength grade scene application model, thus between improving urban road stop forecasting accuracy and
Validity.
2) comprehensively consider city discrete traffic flow characteristic, analysis and differentiation intersection traffic flow running rate, use
Collecting and distributing wave theory constructs urban road discrete traffic flow operation mechanism model, is allowed to more meet the fortune of actual cities road traffic flow
Row feature and rule, thus the more intuitive apparent prediction result for obtaining the urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is to solve urban road discrete traffic flow under rainy weather to be difficult to the problems such as being effectively predicted, and discloses a kind of drop
Urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop prediction technique under rain condition scape, the meteorological datas, traffic flow such as comprehensive rainfall of this method
The road traffics detection datas such as amount pass through the corresponding relationship of rainfall and traffic data under analysis different precipitation strength grade, structure
The road traffic delay parameters relationship model under precipitation condition is built, further analysis signal control under different precipitation strength grade is handed over
Assembly wave, the evanescent wave moving law of prong traffic flow construct the traffic flow integrated and distributed wave basic model of signalized crossing, are collecting
It dissipates wave velocity of wave to calculate, on the basis of traffic state judging and delay time at stop analysis, gives phase under different precipitation strength grade
The delay time at stop calculation method under traffic behavior is answered, in conjunction with crossing traffic signal control parameter, can be constructed between real road traffic
Stop collecting and distributing wave pattern, urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop prediction result under rainy weather finally can be obtained, thus most
The target that estimation prediction is carried out to the rainy weather urban traffic flow delay time at stop is realized eventually.Basic skills process such as Fig. 1 of the present invention
Following scheme that is shown, specifically using:
Step 1: meteorological data, traffic flow data screening pretreatment are based on weather data analysis precipitation intensity grade, vehicle
Detector detects to obtain traffic flow data, arranges the basic road traffic operation number such as magnitude of traffic flow, speed, occupation rate of acquisition
According to；
Step 2: according to precipitation intensity grading standard, establishing the correspondence of meteorological data and traffic data under different brackets
Relationship, builds road traffic flow data map environment under rainfall scene, and master data relationship expression is as follows.
In formula,WithMeteorological data and traffic data respectively at rainfall intensity grade l, rlower,rupperRespectively
For the bound of precipitation, q, u are respectively the magnitude of traffic flow and traffic speed；
Step 3: being directed to different precipitation strength grade, merge relevant weather and traffic data, establish corresponding traffic respectively
Flow relation equation constructs the road traffic delay parameters relationship model under precipitation condition
Fi=fi(l,q,u)
In formula, l represents precipitation intensity grade, and q represents the magnitude of traffic flow at this time, and u represents road-section average traffic flow speed.
Step 4: the building traffic flow integrated and distributed wave basic model of signalized crossing is analyzed under different precipitation strength grade
Assembly wave, the evanescent wave moving law of signalized crossing traffic flow obtain corresponding collecting and distributing wave velocity of wave parameter etc., base respectively
Intersection traffic adfluxion under collecting and distributing wave theoretical informatics precipitation condition dissipates wave pattern
In formula, w is traffic flow integrated and distributed wave velocity of wave, q1And q2Respectively represent the magnitude of traffic flow of upstream and downstream, k1And k2Respectively
Represent the traffic current density of upstream and downstream, u2And u1Respectively represent the average speed of traffic flow of upstream and downstream；
Step 5: calculating traffic flow integrated and distributed wave velocity of wave w
Calculate the velocity of wave for assembling wave
w1=q1u1/(q1-u1klm),
Calculate the velocity of wave of evanescent wave
w2=klmulm/klm-klj,
In formula, w1The velocity of wave that traffic flow is lined up in import when for crossing red light, w2For the traffic flow phase being lined up after the green light of crossing
After the velocity of wave for sailing out of crossing, klmFor the saturation traffic density under precipitation intensity grade l, ulmFor the saturation under precipitation intensity grade l
Traffic flow speed, kljFor the density that blocks the traffic under precipitation intensity grade l；
Step 6: traffic state judging, analysis and distinguishing intersection traffic flow running rate are based on collecting and distributing wave pattern, with
The queuing number that vehicle passes through intersection is reference, can pass through crossing when vehicle does not stop or only once stops to be lined up
When, preliminary judgement traffic at this time is in undersaturated condition, when vehicle is when the stop frequency that crossing is waited in line is more than one time, just
Step determines that traffic at this time is in satiety state, when vehicle is both needed to once be lined up parking waiting or could pass through close to dead ship condition
Crossing determines that traffic is in critical saturation state；
Step 7: the road traffic interruption stream delay time at stop is analyzed, and between two adjacent intersections, motor vehicle i passes through upstream and downstream and hands over
The time of prong is respectively t 'i,ti, by motor vehicle i behind the intersection of upstream with speed uiTraveling is to queuing vehicle tail of the queue and stops
It waits, after downstream intersection green light is let pass, motor vehicle i is to be saturated traffic speed umBy intersection, nothing is passed through according to motor vehicle
Theoretical time t under the conditions of signalized crossingn, and the real time t that practical motor vehicle passes through downstream intersectioni, calculating prolongs
Mistake a Tdelay。
In formula, tiPass through the real time of downstream intersection, t for motor vehiclenPass through non-mandrel roller intersection for motor vehicle
Under the conditions of theoretical time, l is road section length, and d is equidirectional intersection width；
Step 8: based on the road traffic interruption curtain coating misprediction of practical collecting and distributing wave as a result, being controlled in conjunction with crossing traffic signal
Parameter, building real road traffic interruption adfluxion dissipate wave pattern, obtain the corresponding delay time at stop under different precipitation strength grade
Prediction result.
The present invention has following beneficial technical effect:
1) present invention is excavated under different precipitation strength grade by urban highway traffic operation data under analysis rainy weather
Meteorology and traffic corresponding relationship, pass through building precipitation weather under road traffic delay parameters relationship model, it was found that precipitation weather
Lower urban road traffic flow moving law and mechanism.
2) present invention merges collecting and distributing wave theory feature, considers to stop between urban highway traffic in the row of signalized crossing
Team and dissipation situation, binding signal control program analyze urban road traffic flow delay time at stop composition, establish the delay time at stop
Calculation method realizes the prediction for being interrupted the stream delay time at stop to urban highway traffic.
3) prediction of Urban Traffic Planning route delay time at stop, traffic congestion time under rainy weather can be carried out based on the present invention
Analysis and the traffic trip route selection etc. predicted based on the delay time at stop, on the one hand, city under rainfall scene can be improved and handed over
On the other hand the accuracy and validity of through-flow delay time at stop prediction help to improve urban transportation and go out line efficiency, promote road
Resource utilization etc..
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention is further described with example with reference to the accompanying drawing:
Fig. 1 rainy weather urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop predicts flow chart.
Schematic diagram is arranged in Fig. 2 road vehicle detector.
The traffic flow integrated and distributed wave pattern of Fig. 3 signalized crossing.
Fig. 4 undersaturation traffic behavior schematic diagram.
Fig. 5 supersaturation traffic behavior is intended to.
Specific embodiment
It is described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawing for technical solution used by Summary, key step is such as
Under:
Step 1: meteorological data, traffic flow data screening pretreatment.Based on weather data analysis precipitation intensity grade, it is based on
Wagon detector detects to obtain traffic flow data, arranges and obtains the basic road traffic operation number such as the magnitude of traffic flow, speed, occupation rate
According to.Wherein, rainfall intensity grade is executed according to National Meteorological Bureau's relevant criterion, and specific as shown in table 1, road vehicle detector is set
It sets as shown in Figure 2.
1 precipitation intensity grading standard of table
Step 2: according to precipitation intensity grading standard, establishing the correspondence of meteorological data and traffic data under different brackets
Relationship, builds road traffic flow data map environment under rainfall scene, and master data relationship expression is as follows.
In formula,WithMeteorological data and traffic data respectively at rainfall intensity grade l, rlower,rupperRespectively
For the bound of precipitation, q, u are respectively the magnitude of traffic flow and traffic speed.
Step 3: being directed to different precipitation strength grade, merge relevant weather and traffic data, establish corresponding traffic respectively
Flow relation equation, constructs the road traffic delay parameters relationship model under precipitation condition, and basic mathematical expression formula is shown below.
Fi=fi(l,q,u)
In formula, l represents precipitation intensity grade, and q represents the magnitude of traffic flow at this time, and u represents road-section average traffic flow speed.
Step 4: the building traffic flow integrated and distributed wave basic model of signalized crossing is analyzed under different precipitation strength grade
Assembly wave, the evanescent wave moving law of signalized crossing traffic flow obtain corresponding collecting and distributing wave velocity of wave parameter etc., base respectively
Intersection traffic adfluxion under collecting and distributing wave theoretical informatics precipitation condition dissipates wave pattern, and basic model is as shown in Figure 3.
In figure, w1Indicate the velocity of wave that traffic flow is lined up in import when the red light of crossing, i.e. assembly velocity of wave；w2Indicate crossing green light
The velocity of wave at crossing, i.e. dissipation velocity of wave are sailed out of in the traffic flow being lined up afterwards in succession.Its mathematic(al) representation such as following formula.
In formula, q1And q2Respectively represent the magnitude of traffic flow of upstream and downstream, k1And k2Respectively represent the traffic of upstream and downstream
Current density, u2And u1Respectively represent the average speed of traffic flow of upstream and downstream.
Step 5: traffic flow integrated and distributed wave velocity of wave w is calculated.Wherein, assemble the velocity of wave w of wave1=q1u1/(q1-u1klm), evanescent wave
Velocity of wave w2=klmulm/klm-klj.In two formulas, q1、u1The average speed of the road section traffic volume flow and section vehicle respectively detected
Degree, klmFor the saturation traffic density under precipitation intensity grade l, ulmFor the saturation traffic flow speed under precipitation intensity grade l, klj
For the density that blocks the traffic under precipitation intensity grade l.
Step 6: traffic state judging.Analysis and distinguishing intersection traffic flow running rate is based on collecting and distributing wave pattern, with
The queuing number that vehicle passes through intersection is reference, can pass through crossing when vehicle does not stop or only once stops to be lined up
When, preliminary judgement traffic at this time is in undersaturated condition, as shown in Figure 4；When the stop frequency that vehicle is waited in line at crossing is super
When crossing one time, preliminary judgement traffic at this time is in satiety state, as shown in Figure 5.Particularly, when vehicle is both needed to once be lined up parking
It waits or critical saturation state could be in by crossing, at this time traffic close to dead ship condition.
Step 7: road traffic interruption stream delay time at stop analysis.By taking two adjacent intersections as an example, motor vehicle i passes through upstream and downstream
The time of intersection is respectively t 'i,ti, by motor vehicle i behind the intersection of upstream with speed uiIt travels to queuing vehicle tail of the queue D point
And wait for parking, after downstream intersection green light is let pass, after evanescent wave propagates to C point, motor vehicle i is to be saturated traffic speed umPass through
Intersection.Available from two figures, if downstream intersection does not control signal, theoretically motor vehicle i is handed over by downstream
The time of prong should be tn, and reality is t by the timei, so that it is T that the delay time at stop, which can be obtained,delay.Road traffic interruption curtain coating
It is calculated between mistaking.Under undersaturated condition, the delay time at stop that theoretically motor vehicles parking waits does not exceed downstream intersection generally
The red time of mouth, T as shown in Figure 4delay<tred；Similarly, under hypersaturated state, the delay time at stop that motor vehicles parking waits is super
Cross the red time of downstream intersection, T as shown in Figure 5delay> tred。
Wherein, delay time at stop Tdelay:
In formula, tiPass through the real time of downstream intersection, t for motor vehiclenPass through non-mandrel roller intersection for motor vehicle
Under the conditions of theoretical time, l is road section length, and d is equidirectional intersection width.
Step 8: based on the road traffic interruption curtain coating misprediction of practical collecting and distributing wave as a result, being controlled in conjunction with crossing traffic signal
Parameter, building real road traffic interruption adfluxion dissipate wave pattern, obtain the corresponding delay time at stop under different precipitation strength grade
Prediction result.
Claims (1)
1. urban road discrete traffic flow delay time at stop prediction technique under a kind of rainy weather, which is characterized in that this method comprises:
Step 1: meteorological data, traffic flow data screening pretreatment are based on weather data analysis precipitation intensity grade, vehicle detection
Device detects to obtain traffic flow data, arranges the basic road traffic operation data such as magnitude of traffic flow, speed, occupation rate of acquisition；
Step 2: according to precipitation intensity grading standard, establishing meteorological data and the corresponding of traffic data under different brackets and close
System, builds road traffic flow data map environment under rainfall scene, master data relationship expression is as follows:
In formula,WithMeteorological data and traffic data respectively at rainfall intensity grade l, rlower,rupperRespectively drop
The bound of water, q, u are respectively the magnitude of traffic flow and traffic speed；
Step 3: being directed to different precipitation strength grade, merge relevant weather and traffic data, establish corresponding traffic flow respectively and close
It is equation, constructs the road traffic delay parameters relationship model under precipitation condition
Fi=fi(l,q,u)
In formula, l represents precipitation intensity grade, and q represents the magnitude of traffic flow at this time, and u represents road-section average traffic flow speed.
Step 4: the building traffic flow integrated and distributed wave basic model of signalized crossing, analysis signal under different precipitation strength grade
Assembly wave, the evanescent wave moving law of intersection traffic stream are controlled, corresponding collecting and distributing wave velocity of wave parameter etc. is obtained respectively, based on collection
Dissipating the scattered wave pattern of the intersection traffic adfluxion under wave theoretical informatics precipitation condition is
In formula, w is traffic flow integrated and distributed wave velocity of wave, q1And q2Respectively represent the magnitude of traffic flow of upstream and downstream, k1And k2It respectively represents
The traffic current density of upstream and downstream, u2And u1Respectively represent the average speed of traffic flow of upstream and downstream；
Step 5: calculating traffic flow integrated and distributed wave velocity of wave w
Calculate the velocity of wave for assembling wave
w1=q1u1/(q1-u1klm),
Calculate the velocity of wave of evanescent wave
w2=klmulm/klm-klj,
In formula, w1The velocity of wave that traffic flow is lined up in import when for crossing red light, w2Traffic flow to be lined up after the green light of crossing is sailed in succession
Velocity of wave from crossing, klmFor the saturation traffic density under precipitation intensity grade l, ulmFor the saturation traffic under precipitation intensity grade l
Flow velocity degree, kljFor the density that blocks the traffic under precipitation intensity grade l；
Step 6: traffic state judging, analysis and distinguishing intersection traffic flow running rate are based on collecting and distributing wave pattern, with vehicle
Queuing number by intersection is reference, when vehicle does not stop or only once parking queuing can pass through crossing, just
Step determines that traffic at this time is in undersaturated condition, when vehicle is when the stop frequency that crossing is waited in line is more than one time, tentatively sentences
Fixed traffic at this time is in satiety state, when vehicle is both needed to once be lined up parking waiting or could pass through road close to dead ship condition
Mouthful, determine that traffic is in critical saturation state；
Step 7: the road traffic interruption stream delay time at stop is analyzed, and between two adjacent intersections, motor vehicle i passes through upstream and downstream intersection
Time be respectively t 'i,ti, by motor vehicle i behind the intersection of upstream with speed uiIt travels to queuing vehicle tail of the queue and parking etc.
To which after downstream intersection green light is let pass, motor vehicle i is to be saturated traffic speed umBy intersection, no letter is passed through according to motor vehicle
Number control intersection under the conditions of theoretical time tn, and the real time t that practical motor vehicle passes through downstream intersectioni, calculate delay
Time Tdelay；
In formula, tiPass through the real time of downstream intersection, t for motor vehiclenPass through non-mandrel roller intersection condition for motor vehicle
Under theoretical time, l is road section length, and d is equidirectional intersection width；
Step 8: the road traffic interruption curtain coating misprediction based on practical collecting and distributing wave is joined as a result, controlling in conjunction with crossing traffic signal
Number, building real road traffic interruption adfluxion dissipate wave pattern, it is pre- to obtain the corresponding delay time at stop under different precipitation strength grade
Survey result.
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