CN109546652A - The Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district - Google Patents
The Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district Download PDFInfo
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- CN109546652A CN109546652A CN201811582702.XA CN201811582702A CN109546652A CN 109546652 A CN109546652 A CN 109546652A CN 201811582702 A CN201811582702 A CN 201811582702A CN 109546652 A CN109546652 A CN 109546652A
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/003—Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district, including dividing the predicted time section of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted；Count history electric load, Power system load data and meteorological data of each area within each period；The average load growth factor and environment that each area is calculated in each period increase coefficient；The electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is predicted.The present invention is based on the history electricity consumption data statistical basis of distribute-electricity transformer district and its location and method to calculate distribute-electricity transformer district diversity factor, improve distribute-electricity transformer district load forecast objectivity and reliability, load forecast has been carried out in different periods respectively, prediction result is convenient for digitlization and graphically, concise prediction result provides scientific basis for power scheduling operation, plant maintenance, load warning, accident prevention and development plan；And the method for the present invention forecasting accuracy is good, high reliablity and convenient and efficient.
Description
Technical field
Present invention relates particularly to a kind of Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district.
Background technique
With the development and the improvement of people's living standards of economic technology, electric energy has become in people's production and life
Essential secondary energy sources bring endless convenience to people's production and life.
With present extreme weather frequently occur and people require increasingly living standard and quality of life
Height, people are also more and more for the demand of electricity consumption.And with the increase of residential households electricity consumption, distribution transformer (abbreviation distribution transforming)
The winter power load overload situations of platform area heavy-overload, especially platform area are serious, and load peak-valley difference is big, especially during the Spring Festival, occupy
The electricity consumption level of the people reaches the top in 1 year, is easy to appear serious overload situations.Resident because of " ration the power supply, have a power failure, trip ",
Daily life electricity consumption is by strong influence.
Load forecast is a kind of technological means that can be effectively solved the above problem, by electric system
Load is predicted ahead of time, so that electric system can be ready ahead of time, to avoid platform area heavy-overload, and " is stopped
Electricity, ration the power supply " phenomena such as appearance.Therefore, the accuracy of load forecast just becomes the important goal of load forecast.
But the existing big data system of power grid can only play the role of monitoring real-time load, unpredictable future load
Size only can just issue warning after platform area is overloaded, related personnel is notified to handle；And existing prediction side
Method, precision of prediction is not high, therefore specific guidance and prediction can not be also brought to electric system, thus effect is also unobvious.
Summary of the invention
Good, high reliablity that the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of forecasting accuracies and the conveniently electricity of distribute-electricity transformer district
Power load forecasting method.
The Methods of electric load forecasting of this distribute-electricity transformer district provided by the invention, includes the following steps:
S1. the predicted time section of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is divided into several periods according to season；
S2. under distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted, history electric load of each area within each period is counted；
S3. under distribution transforming radio area to be predicted, count Power system load data of each area within each period and
Meteorological data；
S4. according to step S3 count data, calculate each area each period average load growth factor and
Environment increases coefficient；
S5. coefficient is increased according to the load growth coefficient of step S4 obtained each period and environment, matched to be predicted
The electric load in the area Bian Tai is predicted.
Predicted time section described in step S1 is divided into several periods according to season, is specifically divided into period in spring t1, the summer
Period in season t2, period in autumn t3, period in winter t4With period in Spring Festival t5。
The period in the Spring Festival is New Year's Eve to first month of the lunar year the ninth day of lunar month.
It is negative to specifically include history power load, day maximum for history electric load in each period described in step S2
Lotus, day minimum load and per day load.
Power system load data described in step S3 and meteorological data specifically include total electricity consumption of total electricity consumption, previous year
The temperature on average of amount, temperature on average and previous year.
Load growth coefficient described in step S4 and environment increase coefficient, specially calculate average load using following steps
Growth factor and environment increase coefficient:
A. platform area i is calculated in the load growth coefficient of each period using following formula:
K in formula1It (t) is platform area i in t1The load growth coefficient of period, K2It (t) is platform area i in t2The load growth of period
Coefficient, K3It (t) is platform area i in t3The load growth coefficient of period, K4It (t) is platform area i in t4The load growth coefficient of period, K5
It (t) is platform area i in t5The load growth coefficient of period, Q11It is platform area i in t1The total electricity consumption of period, Q21It is platform area i upper one
Annual t1The total electricity consumption of period, Q12It is platform area i in t2The total electricity consumption of period, Q22It is platform area i in previous year t2Period
Total electricity consumption, Q13It is platform area i in t3The total electricity consumption of period, Q23It is platform area i in previous year t3The total electricity consumption of period, Q14For
Platform area i is in t4The total electricity consumption of period, Q24It is platform area i in previous year t4The total electricity consumption of period, Q15It is platform area i in t5Period
Total electricity consumption, Q25It is platform area i in previous year t5The total electricity consumption of period；
B. the average load growth factor of each period is calculated using following formula:
J=1 in formula, 2,3,4,5,For the average load growth factor of j-th of period, Kj,iIt (t) is platform area i in jth
The load growth coefficient of period；
C. coefficient is increased using the environment that following formula calculates each period:
K in formulaa1It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t1Environment increase coefficient, Ka2It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t2Ring
Border increases coefficient, Ka3It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t3Environment increase coefficient, Ka4It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t4Ring
Border increases coefficient, Ka5It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t5Environment increase coefficient, T11It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t1Average air
Temperature, T21For distribute-electricity transformer district previous year period t1Temperature on average, T12It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t2Temperature on average, T22
For distribute-electricity transformer district previous year period t2Temperature on average, T13It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t3Temperature on average, T23For with
Period t of the area Bian Tai in previous year3Temperature on average, T14It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t4Temperature on average, T24For distribution transforming platform
Period t of the area in previous year4Temperature on average, T15It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t5Temperature on average, T25Exist for distribute-electricity transformer district
The period t of previous year5Temperature on average.
The electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is predicted described in step S5, is specially calculated using following formula
The electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted:
J=1 in formula, 2,3,4,5, F be the electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted；For the average load of jth period
Growth factor, Kaj(t) increase coefficient for the environment of jth period, f (j) is the electric load of the jth period of previous year.
The Methods of electric load forecasting of this distribute-electricity transformer district provided by the invention, based on distribute-electricity transformer district and its location
History electricity consumption data statistical basis and method calculate distribute-electricity transformer district diversity factor, improve distribute-electricity transformer district load forecast
Objectivity and reliability have carried out load forecast in different periods respectively, and prediction result is convenient for digitlization and graphical, letter
Bright prediction result provides scientific basis for power scheduling operation, plant maintenance, load warning, accident prevention and development plan；
And the method for the present invention forecasting accuracy is good, high reliablity and convenient and efficient.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method flow diagram of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
It is as shown in Figure 1 the method flow diagram of the method for the present invention: the electric load of this distribute-electricity transformer district provided by the invention
Prediction technique includes the following steps:
S1. the predicted time section of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is divided into several periods according to season；Can specifically it divide
For period in spring t1, period summer t2, period in autumn t3, period in winter t4With period in Spring Festival t5, wherein the period in the Spring Festival be New Year's Eve extremely
First month of the lunar year the ninth day of lunar month；
S2. under distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted, history electric load of each area within each period is counted；Specifically
Including history power load, Daily treatment cost, day minimum load and per day load；
S3. under power distribution station to be predicted, it is gentle to count Power system load data of each area within each period
Image data；Specifically include the temperature on average of total electricity consumption, the total electricity consumption of previous year, temperature on average and previous year；
S4. according to step S3 count data, calculate each area each period average load growth factor and
Environment increases coefficient；Average load growth factor specially is calculated using following steps and environment increases coefficient:
A. platform area i is calculated in the load growth coefficient of each period using following formula:
K in formula1It (t) is platform area i in t1The load growth coefficient of period, K2It (t) is platform area i in t2The load growth of period
Coefficient, K3It (t) is platform area i in t3The load growth coefficient of period, K4It (t) is platform area i in t4The load growth coefficient of period, K5
It (t) is platform area i in t5The load growth coefficient of period, Q11It is platform area i in t1The total electricity consumption of period, Q21It is platform area i upper one
Annual t1The total electricity consumption of period, Q12It is platform area i in t2The total electricity consumption of period, Q22It is platform area i in previous year t2Period
Total electricity consumption, Q13It is platform area i in t3The total electricity consumption of period, Q23It is platform area i in previous year t3The total electricity consumption of period, Q14For
Platform area i is in t4The total electricity consumption of period, Q24It is platform area i in previous year t4The total electricity consumption of period, Q15It is platform area i in t5Period
Total electricity consumption, Q25It is platform area i in previous year t5The total electricity consumption of period；
B. the average load growth factor of each period is calculated using following formula:
J=1 in formula, 2,3,4,5,For the average load growth factor of j-th of period, Kj,iIt (t) is platform area i in jth
The load growth coefficient of period；
C. coefficient is increased using the environment that following formula calculates each period:
K in formulaa1It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t1Environment increase coefficient, Ka2It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t2Ring
Border increases coefficient, Ka3It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t3Environment increase coefficient, Ka4It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t4Ring
Border increases coefficient, Ka5It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t5Environment increase coefficient, T11It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t1Average air
Temperature, T21For distribute-electricity transformer district previous year period t1Temperature on average, T12It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t2Temperature on average, T22
For distribute-electricity transformer district previous year period t2Temperature on average, T13It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t3Temperature on average, T23For with
Period t of the area Bian Tai in previous year3Temperature on average, T14It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t4Temperature on average, T24For distribution transforming platform
Period t of the area in previous year4Temperature on average, T15It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t5Temperature on average, T25Exist for distribute-electricity transformer district
The period t of previous year5Temperature on average；
S5. coefficient is increased according to the load growth coefficient of step S4 obtained each period and environment, matched to be predicted
The electric load in the area Bian Tai is predicted；The electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is specially calculated using following formula:
J=1 in formula, 2,3,4,5, F be the electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted；For the average load of jth period
Growth factor, Kaj(t) increase coefficient for the environment of jth period, f (j) is the electric load of the jth period of previous year.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district, includes the following steps:
S1. the predicted time section of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is divided into several periods according to season；
S2. under distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted, history electric load of each area within each period is counted；
S3. under power distribution station to be predicted, Power system load data and meteorological number of each area within each period are counted
According to；
S4. the data counted according to step S3 calculate each area in the average load growth factor and environment of each period
Increase coefficient；
S5. coefficient is increased according to the load growth coefficient of step S4 obtained each period and environment, to distribution transforming platform to be predicted
The electric load in area is predicted.
2. the Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district according to claim 1, it is characterised in that pre- described in step S1
The survey period is divided into several periods according to season, is specifically divided into period in spring t1, period summer t2, period in autumn t3, winter
Period t4With period in Spring Festival t5。
3. the Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district according to claim 2, it is characterised in that the period in the Spring Festival
For New Year's Eve to first month of the lunar year the ninth day of lunar month.
4. the Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district according to claim 3, it is characterised in that each described in step S2
History electric load in a period specifically includes history power load, Daily treatment cost, day minimum load and per day negative
Lotus.
5. the Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district according to claim 4, it is characterised in that electricity described in step S3
Power load data and meteorological data specifically include total electricity consumption, the total electricity consumption of previous year, temperature on average and previous year
Temperature on average.
6. the Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district according to claim 5, it is characterised in that born described in step S4
Lotus growth factor and environment increase coefficient, specially calculate average load growth factor using following steps and environment increases system
Number:
A. platform area i is calculated in the load growth coefficient of each period using following formula:
K in formula1It (t) is platform area i in t1The load growth coefficient of period, K2It (t) is platform area i in t2The load growth coefficient of period,
K3It (t) is platform area i in t3The load growth coefficient of period, K4It (t) is platform area i in t4The load growth coefficient of period, K5It (t) is platform
Area i is in t5The load growth coefficient of period, Q11It is platform area i in t1The total electricity consumption of period, Q21It is platform area i in previous year t1When
The total electricity consumption of section, Q12It is platform area i in t2The total electricity consumption of period, Q22It is platform area i in previous year t2The total electricity consumption of period,
Q13It is platform area i in t3The total electricity consumption of period, Q23It is platform area i in previous year t3The total electricity consumption of period, Q14It is platform area i in t4
The total electricity consumption of period, Q24It is platform area i in previous year t4The total electricity consumption of period, Q15It is platform area i in t5Total electricity consumption of period
Amount, Q25It is platform area i in previous year t5The total electricity consumption of period；
B. the average load growth factor of each period is calculated using following formula:
J=1 in formula, 2,3,4,5,For the average load growth factor of j-th of period, Kj,iIt (t) is platform area i in the jth period
Load growth coefficient；
C. coefficient is increased using the environment that following formula calculates each period:
K in formulaa1It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t1Environment increase coefficient, Ka2It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t2Environment increase
Add coefficient, Ka3It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t3Environment increase coefficient, Ka4It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t4Environment increase
Add coefficient, Ka5It (t) is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t5Environment increase coefficient, T11It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t1Temperature on average,
T21For distribute-electricity transformer district previous year period t1Temperature on average, T12It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t2Temperature on average, T22For
Period t of the distribute-electricity transformer district in previous year2Temperature on average, T13It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t3Temperature on average, T23For distribution transforming
Period t of the platform area in previous year3Temperature on average, T14It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t4Temperature on average, T24For distribute-electricity transformer district
In the period t of previous year4Temperature on average, T15It is distribute-electricity transformer district in period t5Temperature on average, T25It is distribute-electricity transformer district upper
The period t in one year5Temperature on average.
7. the Methods of electric load forecasting of distribute-electricity transformer district according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described in step S5 pair
The electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is predicted, the power load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted is specially calculated using following formula
Lotus:
J=1 in formula, 2,3,4,5, F be the electric load of distribute-electricity transformer district to be predicted；Increase for the average load of jth period
Coefficient, Kaj(t) increase coefficient for the environment of jth period, f (j) is the electric load of the jth period of previous year.
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| CN111949940A (en) * | 2020-06-28 | 2020-11-17 | 佰聆数据股份有限公司 | Transformer overload prediction method, system and storage medium for transformer area based on regression model |
| CN116703135A (en) * | 2023-08-10 | 2023-09-05 | 安徽博诺思信息科技有限公司 | Power line construction planning analysis and evaluation method |
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