CN109543242B - Method for analyzing ground damage of final stage of carrier rocket - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a final ground of a carrier rocketThe damage analysis method comprises the following steps: (1) Dividing the global land into grids according to longitude and latitude, and establishing a model P of population density in the global land grid along with time k (t), k=1 to N, N being the global land grid number; (2) Simulating the reentry trajectory of the carrier rocket by adopting a Monte Carlo method according to the reentry trajectory parameters of the carrier rocket to obtain a landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket; (3) Matching the global land grid with the landing point distribution area to obtain a mapping relation between the global land grid and the landing point distribution area, and obtaining a land grid covered by the landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket and the occupied area A thereof in the covered land grid according to the mapping relation i ,i∈[1,N]The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the (4) Calculating to obtain a total population s (t) of the drop point distribution area according to a model of population density change along with time in the global land grid; (5) The risk of ground damage is calculated from the general population of the drop point distribution area.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a ground damage analysis method for a final stage of a carrier rocket, which is used for realizing ground damage analysis of a final stage of a waste carrier rocket and belongs to the technical field of carrier rockets.
Background
The final stage of the carrier rocket rubs with the atmosphere in the uncontrolled reentry process at the end of the mission, and is disintegrated under the action of strong pneumatic heating and aerodynamic force to generate a large amount of fragments, and part of fragments can be completely ablated and melted before reaching the ground due to the action of high temperature, but some fragments finally fall to the ground, so that threat to people, buildings and ecosystems on the ground can be caused, and if the carrier rocket falls into densely populated areas or even cities, the consequences are not considered. The ground damage analysis of the final stage of the carrier rocket is carried out, the damage probability of the final stage debris of the carrier rocket to ground personnel is determined, and the method has important application value for preventing the final stage reentry risk of the carrier rocket.
Common indicators for internationally assessing ground risk include area of injury and ground risk. The area of injury and death is used to evaluate the ground risk caused by the residual fragments of a single reentry event, and is equal to the combination of the cross section of the fragments and the projected cross section area of the human body, and the total area of injury and death is determined by the sum of the areas of injury and death of all the residual fragments in the single reentry event.
In order to more accurately estimate the risk brought by the reentry of the residual object into the target, the accurate falling point and distribution range of the residual object on the ground surface need to be determined, so that a prediction result with a certain probability distribution form is reasonable.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical solution of the invention is as follows: the method for analyzing the ground personnel and property damage of the final stage of the carrier rocket is provided, the method for comprehensively analyzing the ground personnel and property damage of the ground personnel based on a geographic information system and a reentry fragment scattering area is realized, and the requirement of analysis of the final stage reentry damage of the carrier rocket is met.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a method for analyzing ground damage of a final stage of a carrier rocket, comprising the following steps:
(1) Dividing the global land into grids according to longitude and latitude, and establishing a model P of population density in the global land grid along with time k (t), k=1 to N, N being the global land grid number;
(2) Simulating the reentry trajectory of the carrier rocket by adopting a Monte Carlo method according to the reentry trajectory parameters of the carrier rocket to obtain a landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket;
(3) Matching the global land grid with the landing point distribution area to obtain a mapping relation between the global land grid and the landing point distribution area, and obtaining a land grid covered by the landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket and the occupied area A thereof in the covered land grid according to the mapping relation i ,i∈[1,N]；
(4) Calculating to obtain a total population s (t) of the drop point distribution area according to a model of population density change along with time in the global land grid;
(5) The risk of ground damage is calculated from the general population of the drop point distribution area.
The calculation formula of the general population s (t) of the drop point distribution area is as follows:
wherein i represents that the drop point distribution area is partially or completely overlapped with the ith land grid.
The calculation formula of the ground damage risk in the step (4) is as follows:
ground damage risk = drop point distribution regional population/global population.
The specific steps of the step (1) are as follows:
(1.1) meshing and splitting the global land according to longitude and latitude according to a geographic information system describing the global land distribution to obtain a global land grid;
(1.2) fitting the time-varying data of the population density of the administrative region on the history to obtain a time-varying function ρ of the population density of the administrative region m (t), m=1 to M, M being the number of administrative areas;
(1.3) matching the global land grid with the global administrative area to obtain a mapping relation between the land grid and the global administrative area;
(1.4) according to the mapping relation between the land grid and the global administrative region, obtaining the administrative region covered by the land grid and the area S thereof in the corresponding administrative region j ,j∈[1～M]；
(1.5) land grid covered administrative areas and areas S thereof within corresponding administrative areas based on demographic data currently divided by global administrative area j ,j∈[1～M]The population density of each land grid is obtained.
The calculation formula of the step (1.5) is as follows:
wherein Z is k Represents the area of the kth land grid, j represents the land gridOverlapping part or all of the j-th administrative area.
The specific implementation of the step (2) is as follows:
(2.1) setting initial state parameters of the carrier rocket fragments at a reentry disassembly point, wherein the state parameters comprise longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, azimuth angle and initial surface temperature values;
(2.2) simulating the three-degree-of-freedom reentry trajectory of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments based on the state parameters of the carrier rocket at the reentry disintegration point to obtain the landing point position of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments on the earth surface;
(2.3) using a Monte Carlo method, adding random numbers caused by uncertain factors on the basis of the initial state parameters of the reentry and disassembly points of the carrier rocket fragments set in the step (1), and randomly changing the longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, azimuth angle and surface temperature of the reentry and disassembly points of the carrier rocket fragments;
and (2.4) repeating the steps (2.1) - (2.3) for preset times to obtain the landing point position of a group of carrier rocket disintegrated fragments on the earth surface, and taking the area surrounded by the landing point envelope as the landing point area of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments.
And (2.3) assuming the split fragments of the carrier rocket as solid balls, taking the state parameters of the split fragments of the carrier rocket at the reentry point as the initial state parameters of the solid balls according to the solid mass and volume, and simulating the three-degree-of-freedom reentry trajectory of the split fragments of the carrier rocket to obtain the landing point positions of the split fragments of the carrier rocket on the earth surface as the landing point positions of the split fragments of the carrier rocket on the earth surface.
The mass of the solid sphere is the mass of the fragments, and the volume of the solid sphere is calculated according to the material density of the fragments.
And (3) selecting random numbers caused by uncertain factors according to normal distribution, wherein the longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, reentry azimuth angle and surface temperature of the carrier rocket are reentered.
The preset times are at least 10000 times.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
(1) According to the invention, the ground population distribution and the geographic information system are combined in a gridding manner to obtain the model of the ground population distribution, and the population distribution model is in accordance with reality and is more accurate.
(2) According to the invention, each error source of the final landing point of the rocket is analyzed, and the landing point prediction is more accurate.
(3) The calculation method of the damage probability of the final stage debris of the carrier rocket to ground personnel combines geographic information, population distribution and population distribution change, and is more scientific.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a final ground damage analysis of a launch vehicle.
Detailed Description
The following describes in further detail the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Aiming at the requirement of detailed evaluation of the final stage reentry damage of the carrier rocket, the invention provides a method for analyzing the final stage ground damage of the carrier rocket, which comprises the following steps: firstly, constructing a set of geographic information system, modeling the ground population distribution in a gridding mode, and then predicting the population distribution in a certain period according to a relevant population change model of the united nations. And finally, setting a drop point spreading area, simulating the influence of each error source on the drop point of the fragments by utilizing Monte Carlo analysis, and determining the damage probability of the final debris of the carrier rocket to ground personnel.
FIG. 1 shows a flow chart of ground damage analysis for the final stage of a launch vehicle. As shown in fig. 1, the method specifically includes the following steps:
(1) Dividing the global land into grids according to longitude and latitude, and establishing a model P of population density in the global land grid along with time k (t), k=1 to N, N being the global land grid number;
(1.1) meshing and splitting the global land according to longitude and latitude according to a geographic information system describing the global land distribution to obtain a global land grid;
(1.2) fitting the time-varying data of the population density of the administrative area on the history to obtain the time-varying population density of the administrative areaVarying function ρ m (t), m=1 to M, M being the number of administrative areas;
(1.3) matching the global land grid with the global administrative area to obtain a mapping relation between the land grid and the global administrative area;
(1.4) according to the mapping relation between the land grid and the global administrative region, obtaining the administrative region covered by the land grid and the area S thereof in the corresponding administrative region j ,j∈[1～M]；
(1.5) land grid covered administrative areas and areas S thereof within corresponding administrative areas based on demographic data currently divided by global administrative area j ,j∈[1～M]The population density of each land grid is obtained.
Population density P of each land grid k The calculation formula of (t) is as follows:
wherein Z is k Representing the area of the kth land grid, j representing the land grid overlapping with part or all of the jth block administrative area.
(2) Simulating the reentry trajectory of the carrier rocket by adopting a Monte Carlo method according to the reentry trajectory parameters of the carrier rocket to obtain a landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket;
(2.1) setting initial state parameters of the carrier rocket fragments at a reentry disassembly point, wherein the state parameters comprise longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, azimuth angle and initial surface temperature values;
(2.2) simulating the three-degree-of-freedom reentry trajectory of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments based on the state parameters of the carrier rocket at the reentry disintegration point to obtain the landing point position of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments on the earth surface;
and (2.3) adding random numbers caused by uncertain factors on the basis of the initial state parameters of the reentry and disassembly points of the carrier rocket fragments set in the step (1) by utilizing a Monte Carlo method, and randomly changing the longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, azimuth angle and surface temperature of the reentry and disassembly points of the carrier rocket fragments.
And (2.3) assuming the split fragments of the carrier rocket as solid balls, taking the state parameters of the split fragments of the carrier rocket at the reentry point as the initial state parameters of the solid balls according to the solid mass and volume, and simulating the three-degree-of-freedom reentry trajectory of the split fragments of the carrier rocket to obtain the landing point positions of the split fragments of the carrier rocket on the earth surface as the landing point positions of the split fragments of the carrier rocket on the earth surface.
The mass of the solid sphere is the mass of the fragments, and the volume of the solid sphere is calculated according to the material density of the fragments. The material on the chip may be selected from aluminum, steel or titanium.
The reentry longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, reentry azimuth angle and surface temperature of the carrier rocket select random numbers caused by uncertain factors according to normal distribution.
The range of the random numbers of the state parameters is as follows:
reenter the initial height: -1 km;
speed of: -0.1km/s to 0.1km/s;
reentry azimuth: -0.1 °;
surface temperature: -1 °;
longitude: -0.01 DEG
Latitude: -0.01 deg..
And (2.4) repeating the steps (2.1) - (2.3) for preset times to obtain the landing point position of a group of carrier rocket disintegrated fragments on the earth surface, and taking the area surrounded by the landing point envelope as the landing point area of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments. The preset times are at least 10000 times.
(3) Matching the global land grid with the landing point distribution area to obtain a mapping relation between the global land grid and the landing point distribution area, and obtaining a land grid covered by the landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket and the occupied area A thereof in the covered land grid according to the mapping relation i ,i∈[1,N]；
The general population s (t) of the drop point distribution area is calculated as:
wherein i represents that the drop point distribution area is partially or completely overlapped with the ith land grid.
(4) Calculating to obtain a total population s (t) of the drop point distribution area according to a model of population density change along with time in the global land grid;
the calculation formula of the ground damage risk is as follows:
ground damage risk = drop point distribution regional population/global population.
(5) The risk of ground damage is calculated from the general population of the drop point distribution area.
According to the invention, the ground population distribution is combined with the geographic information system in a gridding manner to obtain the model of the ground population distribution, and the population distribution model is in accordance with reality and is more accurate.
According to the invention, each error source of the final landing point of the rocket is analyzed, and the landing point prediction is more accurate.
The calculation method of the damage probability of the final stage debris of the carrier rocket to ground personnel combines geographic information, population distribution and population distribution change, and is more scientific.
Therefore, the final ground damage analysis flow, model and method of the carrier rocket can be widely applied to the technical field of carrier rockets, and the requirement of the final reentry damage analysis of the carrier rocket is met.
What is not described in detail in the present specification belongs to the known technology of those skilled in the art.
Claims (9)
1. A final ground damage analysis method of a carrier rocket is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) Dividing the global land into grids according to longitude and latitude, and establishing a model P of population density in the global land grid along with time k (t), k=1 to N, N being the global land grid number;
the specific steps of the step (1) are as follows:
(1.1) meshing and splitting the global land according to longitude and latitude according to a geographic information system describing the global land distribution to obtain a global land grid;
(1.2) fitting the time-varying data of the population density of the administrative region on the history to obtain a time-varying function ρ of the population density of the administrative region m (t), m=1 to M, M being the number of administrative areas;
(1.3) matching the global land grid with the global administrative area to obtain a mapping relation between the land grid and the global administrative area;
(1.4) according to the mapping relation between the land grid and the global administrative region, obtaining the administrative region covered by the land grid and the area S thereof in the corresponding administrative region j ,j∈[1～M]；
(1.5) land grid covered administrative areas and areas S thereof within corresponding administrative areas based on demographic data currently divided by global administrative area j ,j∈[1～M]Obtaining population density of each land grid;
(2) Simulating the reentry trajectory of the carrier rocket by adopting a Monte Carlo method according to the reentry trajectory parameters of the carrier rocket to obtain a landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket;
(3) Matching the global land grid with the landing point distribution area to obtain a mapping relation between the global land grid and the landing point distribution area, and obtaining a land grid covered by the landing point distribution area of the carrier rocket and the occupied area A thereof in the covered land grid according to the mapping relation i ,i∈[1,N]；
(4) Calculating to obtain a total population s (t) of the drop point distribution area according to a model of population density change along with time in the global land grid;
(5) The risk of ground damage is calculated from the general population of the drop point distribution area.
2. A method of analyzing ground damage at the last stage of a launch vehicle according to claim 1, wherein the formula for calculating the population s (t) of the landing point distribution area is:
wherein i represents that the drop point distribution area is partially or completely overlapped with the ith land grid.
3. The method for analyzing ground damage of a final stage of a carrier rocket according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the ground damage risk in the step (4) is as follows:
ground damage risk = drop point distribution regional population/global population.
4. The method for analyzing ground damage of a final stage of a carrier rocket according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the step (1.5) is as follows:
wherein Z is k Representing the area of the kth land grid, j representing the land grid overlapping with part or all of the jth block administrative area.
5. The method for analyzing the ground damage of the final stage of the carrier rocket according to claim 1, wherein the step (2) is specifically implemented as follows:
(2.1) setting initial state parameters of the carrier rocket fragments at a reentry disassembly point, wherein the state parameters comprise longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, azimuth angle and initial surface temperature values;
(2.2) simulating the three-degree-of-freedom reentry trajectory of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments based on the state parameters of the carrier rocket at the reentry disintegration point to obtain the landing point position of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments on the earth surface;
(2.3) using a Monte Carlo method, adding random numbers caused by uncertain factors on the basis of the initial state parameters of the reentry and disassembly points of the carrier rocket fragments set in the step (2.1), and randomly changing the longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, azimuth angle and surface temperature of the reentry and disassembly points of the carrier rocket fragments;
and (2.4) repeating the steps (2.1) - (2.3) for preset times to obtain the landing point position of a group of carrier rocket disintegrated fragments on the earth surface, and taking the area surrounded by the landing point envelope as the landing point area of the carrier rocket disintegrated fragments.
6. The method for analyzing ground damage of a final stage of a carrier rocket according to claim 5, wherein the step (2.3) is characterized in that the broken pieces of the carrier rocket are assumed to be solid balls, the state parameters of the broken pieces of the carrier rocket at the reentry point are taken as the initial state parameters of the solid balls according to the solid mass and the solid volume, and the three-degree-of-freedom reentry trajectory of the broken pieces of the carrier rocket is simulated to obtain the landing point positions of the broken pieces of the carrier rocket on the earth surface.
7. The method for analyzing ground damage of a final stage of a carrier rocket according to claim 6, wherein the mass of the solid sphere is the mass of fragments, and the volume of the solid sphere is calculated according to the material density of the fragments.
8. The method for analyzing ground damage of a final stage of a carrier rocket according to claim 5, wherein the reentry longitude, latitude, altitude, speed, reentry angle, reentry azimuth angle and surface temperature of the carrier rocket in the step (2.3) are random numbers caused by uncertainty factors according to normal distribution.
9. A method of ground damage analysis for a final stage of a launch vehicle according to claim 5 wherein said predetermined number of times is at least 10000 times.
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| CN112182857B (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2024-02-13 | 中国运载火箭技术研究院 | Rocket-level debris falling point prediction method, rocket-level debris falling point prediction equipment and storage medium |
| CN114462297B (en) * | 2021-12-29 | 2024-07-02 | 山西清风渡信息技术有限公司 | Rocket drop disaster analysis system |
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