CN109448325A - A kind of mud-rock flow fining method for early warning and application based on rainfall in one hour - Google Patents
A kind of mud-rock flow fining method for early warning and application based on rainfall in one hour Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of, and the mud-rock flow based on rainfall in one hour refines method for early warning, belong to debris flow control works technical field, it is characterised in that: the following steps are included: a, determining that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's area A, form factor F, the long L of ditch and ditch bed longitudinal river slope J；B, average annual rainfall R is obtained0With 10 minutes coefficient of variation C of rainfallv, the real-time monitoring rainfall B and preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth I of excitation；C, channel mean breadth W and grain diameter D are determined；D, terrain factor T is calculated；E, ground prime factor G is calculated；F, rainfall factor R is calculated；G, the generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated；H, judge the generation of mud-rock flow.The landform and geologic feature and characteristics of rainfall that the present invention passes through research debris flow formation region, it is crucial judge index to excite preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth, shorter rainfall duration is avoided in no prophase programming it is possible that the case where judging by accident, realizes fining early warning.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to debris flow control works technical field more particularly to a kind of mud-rock flows based on rainfall in one hour
Refine method for early warning and application.
Background technique
Mud-rock flow is a kind of natural calamity occurred in mountain area.After mud-rock flow occurs, mud-rock flow carries a large amount of silts, destroys by rush of water
Cities and towns destroy farmland and forest, the bridge road that destroys by rush of water, block traffic.
A large amount of landslide and avalanche are induced after violent earthquake in the strong zone of influence of earthquake, is the hair of later period mud-rock flow
Life provides a large amount of solid material resource.Studies at home and abroad show that violent earthquake influence area is past in the rainfall after earthquake
Toward occur many places mud-rock flow, sometimes or mass-sending property mud-rock flow；It is not originally the basin of debris flow gully, it is possible to consumingly
Develop into catchment basin of debris flow under the influence of shake；It is originally the basin of debris flow gully, it is possible to develop under the influence of violent earthquake
Can be bigger for the scale of high-frequency catchment basin of debris flow, while mud-rock flow generation, the induced conditions of mud-rock flow are lower.With regard to mud-rock flow
For induced conditions, the basin having before violent earthquake is not debris flow gully, it is impossible to induce mud-rock flow or induced conditions very
It is high；The basin having before violent earthquake has been debris flow gully, but the induced conditions of mud-rock flow are very high.But after violent earthquake, mudstone
Stream basin may have landslide and avalanche, and potential landslide and avalanche occur, and make the induced conditions of original mud-rock flow
There is significant change, critical condition is greatly lowered.Debris flow early-warning method after accurate macroseism not yet domestic and international at present,
Only rough qualitative judgement or a small amount of rational judgment method: the critical condition that mud-rock flow occurs after violent earthquake sharply drops
It is low, it is increased year by year again in subsequent rainy season, it is horizontal before being restored to earthquake.Only accurately predict the generation of mud-rock flow, i.e.,
Fining ground early warning mud-rock flow, just can be reduced mud-stone flow disaster.
There are no the fining early warning that accurate quantitative method determines mud-rock flow, especially macroseism for current scientific research
The quantitative approach of the fining early warning of area's mud-rock flow year by year.General mud-rock flow fining early warning is the technique study by statistics
The method for early warning and criterion for obtaining mud-rock flow can only also provide the violent earthquake influence area of suddenly change by statistics
The critical condition rate of descent of the violent earthquake zone of influence and the relationship of earthquake peak acceleration, but the relationship can not be suitable for owning
Catchment basin of debris flow, some basin calculated values differ larger with actual value；For subsequent variation year by year, can only speculate possible
The balanced growth rate of critical condition, it is completely helpless for the careful variation of single-gully mud-rock flow basin critical condition；Meanwhile
The critical condition that cannot determine when catchment basin of debris flow can be restored to the level before earthquake.
For meizoseismal area catchment basin of debris flow, because violent earthquake influences, very big change is had occurred in the solid material resource condition in basin
Change, the critical induced conditions of the mud-rock flow of single-groove change very greatly, even adjacent catchment basin of debris flow, because of the feelings on landslide and avalanche
Condition is different, and critical induced conditions variation may be entirely different, and critical induced conditions may also be entirely different, but quantitative accurate
The mud-rock flow generation of early warning single-groove is extremely important, is one of the main control measure prevented and reduced natural disasters.
For under normal circumstances, i.e., under no earthquake effect, the early warning of single-gully mud-rock flow, although the existing pre- police
Method judges the generation of mud-rock flow using key conditions such as landform, geology, rainfalls, but to the vital mud of debris flow formation
Rock glacier formed area's channel width, formed area's channel in grain diameter not yet all considered so that the precision of early warning by
It influences.Accomplish the fining early warning of mud-rock flow, debris flow formation region channel width, the grain diameter formed in area's channel needs
Consider emphatically.
Publication No. CN 104318058A, publication date are that on 01 28th, 2015 Chinese patent literatures disclose one kind
Debris flow early-warning method based on rainfall monitoring characterized by comprising the mud-rock flow thing established according to history rainfall product data
Part feature rainfall model, rainwash affair character rainfall model and normal precipitation affair character rainfall model, and determine area
Scaling function；Attenuation coefficient, weight coefficient and threshold limit value are determined according to the discrimination function；Acquire rainfall of the first n days
Data introduce attenuation coefficient and calculate the first n days effective rainfall；Weight coefficient and daily rainfall data are introduced, and according to the power
Weight coefficient, daily rainfall data and the first n days effective rainfall calculate feature rainfall；By the feature rainfall with it is described critical
Threshold value is compared, and determines whether daily rainfall can cause mud-rock flow event according to comparison result.
Debris flow early-warning method based on rainfall monitoring disclosed in the patent document establishes phase by history rainfall product data
The model answered calculates corresponding threshold limit value, and each data are all obtained by calculation, are scientific, and is only logical still
Single characteristics of rainfall is crossed to determine whether mud-rock flow event can be caused, early warning accuracy is lower, and it is pre- to can not achieve fining
It is alert.
Summary of the invention
The present invention in order to overcome the defects of the prior art described above, provides a kind of mud-rock flow fining based on rainfall in one hour
Method for early warning and application, the present invention are proposed by the landform and geologic feature and characteristics of rainfall of research debris flow formation region
A possibility that quantitative meizoseismal area or under normal circumstances single-gully mud-rock flow occur calculation method and index, with preceding 1 hour drop of excitation
Rainfall is the crucial judge index of early warning, avoids shorter rainfall duration in no prophase programming it is possible that erroneous judgement
The case where, the accuracy of debris flow early-warning is improved, the fining early warning of mud-rock flow is realized.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of mud-rock flow fining method for early warning based on rainfall in one hour, which comprises the following steps:
A, the basic parameter of potential catchment basin of debris flow is determined by Google Earth or topographic map: catchment basin of debris flow forms area face
Product A, catchment basin of debris flow form area's form factor F, catchment basin of debris flow forms the long L of area's ditch and catchment basin of debris flow forms the vertical ratio of area's ditch bed
J drops；
B, hydrologic manual is consulted, catchment basin of debris flow is obtained and forms area's average annual rainfall R0Area's drop is formed with catchment basin of debris flow
10 minutes coefficient of variation C of rainv, the rainfall B and excitation of real-time monitoring or forecast catchment basin of debris flow formation area position
Preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth I；
C, field investigation determines that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth W and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter
D；
D, catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor T is calculated；
T=FJ (A/W2)0.2=JA/L2(A/W2)0.2Formula 1
Wherein, T is catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor；F is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's form factor；L is catchment basin of debris flow
It is long to form area's ditch, unit m；J is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope；A is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's area, unit
m2；W is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth, unit m；
E, catchment basin of debris flow ground prime factor G is calculated；
G=D/D0Formula 2
Wherein, G for catchment basin of debris flow prime factor；D is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter, refers to that form area loose
The average grain central diameter partial size of solid matter surface, unit mm；D0For coarse granule minimum grain size, D0=2mm；
F, the rainfall factor R for inducing mud-rock flow is calculated；
R=R*/(R0Cv)=(B+12.5I)/(R0Cv) formula 3
Wherein, R is the rainfall factor for inducing mud-rock flow；R* is excitation interception rainfall index, unit mm；B is rainfall, single
Position mm；I is to excite preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth, unit mm；R0Area's average annual rainfall, unit mm are formed for catchment basin of debris flow；CvFor
Catchment basin of debris flow forms 10 minutes coefficients of variation of area's rainfall；
G, the generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated；
P=RT0.2/G0.38Formula 4
H, judge the generation of mud-rock flow；
As P < 0.24, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is small；
As 0.24≤P < 0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is medium；
As P >=0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is big.
The present invention, the fining early warning of the strong seismic region mud-rock flow suitable for single-groove.
Catchment basin of debris flow of the present invention forms area and refers to that mud-rock flow is circulated through region and the above area of debris fans
Domain.
Basic principle of the invention is as follows:
The bulk solid mass for being formed as mountain torrents caused by rainfall and washing away debris flow formation region of mud-rock flow, starts this
A little solid matters form mud-rock flow.In case of a possibility that it is too small, then mountain torrents caused by rainfall take husky scarce capacity, start
A possibility that solid matter is difficult in formation area's channel, generation is small；Conversely, a possibility that occurring is big.Mud-rock flow is caused to occur
The too small reason of possibility has:
1, catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor T is too small: 1) catchment basin of debris flow formation area's area A is too small, then charge for remittance is very little, cannot
The mountain torrents of big flow are formed, it is relatively difficult to start solid matter；2) catchment basin of debris flow formation area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope J is too small, starts
Solid matter is highly difficult；3) catchment basin of debris flow formation area's form factor F is too small, cannot converge to form the mountain torrents of greater flow, rises
Dynamic solid matter is also highly difficult；4) catchment basin of debris flow formation area's channel mean breadth W is too big, has dispersed mountain torrents in the water for forming area
Stream makes to take husky ability decline, it is higher to form mud-rock flow condition；
2, catchment basin of debris flow prime factor G it is too big: catchment basin of debris flow formed area's grain diameter D it is too big, mountain torrents start solid
Material difficulty；
3, the rainfall factor R for inducing mud-rock flow is too small: 1) rainfall B is too small, forms drop required for Rainfall-runoff
Raininess degree is larger, cannot generate biggish Rainfall-runoff, can not form the mountain torrents of larger flow, it is difficult to it is loosely solid to start ditch bed
Body material resource；2) excite preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth I too small, the Rainfall-runoff of formation is too small, and the mountain torrents flow of formation is too small, has been difficult
Dynamic ditch bed bulk solids material resource.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly manifested in following aspect:
One, of the invention, " a, the basic parameter that potential catchment basin of debris flow is determined by Google Earth or topographic map: mud-rock flow
Basin formation area area A, catchment basin of debris flow form area's form factor F, catchment basin of debris flow forms the long L of area's ditch and catchment basin of debris flow shape
At area ditch bed longitudinal river slope J；B, hydrologic manual is consulted, catchment basin of debris flow is obtained and forms area's average annual rainfall R0And catchment basin of debris flow
Form 10 minutes coefficient of variation C of area's rainfallv, real-time monitoring or forecast catchment basin of debris flow formed area position rainfall
The B and preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth I of excitation；C, field investigation determines that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth W and catchment basin of debris flow
Form area's grain diameter D；D, catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor T is calculated；E, catchment basin of debris flow ground prime factor G is calculated；F, it calculates and lures
Send out the rainfall factor R of mud-rock flow；G, the generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated；H, judge the generation of mud-rock flow ", it is complete as one
Technical solution, compared with the prior art, by studying the landform and geologic feature and characteristics of rainfall of debris flow formation region,
Quantitative meizoseismal area is proposed or calculation method and index a possibility that single-gully mud-rock flow occurs under normal circumstances, with excitation preceding 1
Hourly rainfall depth is the crucial judge index of early warning, and avoiding may go out shorter rainfall duration in no prophase programming
The case where now judging by accident improves the accuracy of debris flow early-warning, realizes the fining early warning of mud-rock flow.
Two, of the invention, influence of the judge index to debris flow formation, proposes a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow
A possibility that fine mud-rock flow occurs calculation method and critical value.
Three, of the invention, influence of the judge index to debris flow formation, provides a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow
Fine parameter, especially catchment basin of debris flow form area's grain diameter and catchment basin of debris flow forms the average width of area channel
Degree, keeps the fining early warning of mud-rock flow more accurate.
Four, of the invention, influence of the judge index to debris flow formation, provides a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow
Fine parameter forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope including quantitative catchment basin of debris flow, catchment basin of debris flow forms area's shape system
Several and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's area, further improves the fining early warning of mud-rock flow.
Five, of the invention, influence of the judge index to debris flow formation, provides a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow
Fine rainfall parameter, including rainfall and preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth is excited, the fining for strengthening mud-rock flow is pre-
It is alert.
Specific embodiment
Embodiment 1
A kind of mud-rock flow fining method for early warning based on rainfall in one hour, comprising the following steps:
A, the basic parameter of potential catchment basin of debris flow is determined by Google Earth or topographic map: catchment basin of debris flow forms area face
Product A, catchment basin of debris flow form area's form factor F, catchment basin of debris flow forms the long L of area's ditch and catchment basin of debris flow forms the vertical ratio of area's ditch bed
J drops；
B, hydrologic manual is consulted, catchment basin of debris flow is obtained and forms area's average annual rainfall R0Area's drop is formed with catchment basin of debris flow
10 minutes coefficient of variation C of rainv, the rainfall B and excitation of real-time monitoring or forecast catchment basin of debris flow formation area position
Preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth I；
C, field investigation determines that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth W and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter
D；
D, catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor T is calculated；
T=FJ (A/W2)0.2=JA/L2(A/W2)0.2Formula 1
Wherein, T is catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor；F is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's form factor；L is catchment basin of debris flow
It is long to form area's ditch, unit m；J is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope；A is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's area, unit
m2；W is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth, unit m；
E, catchment basin of debris flow ground prime factor G is calculated；
G=D/D0Formula 2
Wherein, G for catchment basin of debris flow prime factor；D is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter, refers to that form area loose
The average grain central diameter partial size of solid matter surface, unit mm；D0For coarse granule minimum grain size, D0=2mm；
F, the rainfall factor R for inducing mud-rock flow is calculated；
R=R*/(R0Cv)=(B+12.5I)/(R0Cv) formula 3
Wherein, R is the rainfall factor for inducing mud-rock flow；R* is excitation interception rainfall index, unit mm；B is rainfall, single
Position mm；I is to excite preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth, unit mm；R0Area's average annual rainfall, unit mm are formed for catchment basin of debris flow；CvFor
Catchment basin of debris flow forms 10 minutes coefficients of variation of area's rainfall；
G, the generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated；
P=RT0.2/G0.38Formula 4
H, judge the generation of mud-rock flow；
As P < 0.24, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is small；
As 0.24≤P < 0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is medium；
As P >=0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is big.
" a, the basic parameter that potential catchment basin of debris flow is determined by Google Earth or topographic map: catchment basin of debris flow forms area
Area A, catchment basin of debris flow form area's form factor F, catchment basin of debris flow forms the long L of area's ditch and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's ditch bed and indulges
Than dropping J；B, hydrologic manual is consulted, catchment basin of debris flow is obtained and forms area's average annual rainfall R0Area's rainfall is formed with catchment basin of debris flow
10 minutes coefficient of variation Cv, the rainfall B and excitation preceding 1 of real-time monitoring or forecast catchment basin of debris flow formation area position
Hourly rainfall depth I；C, field investigation determines that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth W and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's particle
Partial size D；D, catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor T is calculated；E, catchment basin of debris flow ground prime factor G is calculated；F, it calculates and induces mud-rock flow
Rainfall factor R；G, the generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated；H, judge the generation of mud-rock flow ", as a complete technical solution,
Compared with the prior art, it by the landform and geologic feature and characteristics of rainfall of research debris flow formation region, proposes quantitative
A possibility that meizoseismal area or under normal circumstances single-gully mud-rock flow occur calculation method and index, to excite preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth to be
The crucial judge index of early warning avoids shorter rainfall duration in no prophase programming it is possible that the feelings judged by accident
Condition improves the accuracy of debris flow early-warning, realizes the fining early warning of mud-rock flow.
Embodiment 2
A kind of mud-rock flow fining method for early warning based on rainfall in one hour, comprising the following steps:
A, the basic parameter of potential catchment basin of debris flow is determined by Google Earth or topographic map: catchment basin of debris flow forms area face
Product A, catchment basin of debris flow form area's form factor F, catchment basin of debris flow forms the long L of area's ditch and catchment basin of debris flow forms the vertical ratio of area's ditch bed
J drops；
B, hydrologic manual is consulted, catchment basin of debris flow is obtained and forms area's average annual rainfall R0Area's drop is formed with catchment basin of debris flow
10 minutes coefficient of variation C of rainv, the rainfall B and excitation of real-time monitoring or forecast catchment basin of debris flow formation area position
Preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth I；
C, field investigation determines that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth W and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter
D；
D, catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor T is calculated；
T=FJ (A/W2)0.2=JA/L2(A/W2)0.2Formula 1
Wherein, T is catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor；F is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's form factor；L is catchment basin of debris flow
It is long to form area's ditch, unit m；J is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope；A is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's area, unit
m2；W is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth, unit m；
E, catchment basin of debris flow ground prime factor G is calculated；
G=D/D0Formula 2
Wherein, G for catchment basin of debris flow prime factor；D is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter, refers to that form area loose
The average grain central diameter partial size of solid matter surface, unit mm；D0For coarse granule minimum grain size, D0=2mm；
F, the rainfall factor R for inducing mud-rock flow is calculated；
R=R*/(R0Cv)=(B+12.5I)/(R0Cv) formula 3
Wherein, R is the rainfall factor for inducing mud-rock flow；R* is excitation interception rainfall index, unit mm；B is rainfall, single
Position mm；I is to excite preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth, unit mm；R0Area's average annual rainfall, unit mm are formed for catchment basin of debris flow；CvFor
Catchment basin of debris flow forms 10 minutes coefficients of variation of area's rainfall；
G, the generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated；
P=RT0.2/G0.38Formula 4
H, judge the generation of mud-rock flow；
As P < 0.24, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is small；
As 0.24≤P < 0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is medium；
As P >=0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is big.
The present invention, the fining early warning of the strong seismic region mud-rock flow suitable for single-groove.
Influence of the judge index to debris flow formation of a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow, proposes fine mud
A possibility that rock glacier occurs calculation method and critical value.
Influence of the judge index to debris flow formation of a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow, gives fine meter
It calculates index, especially catchment basin of debris flow and forms area's grain diameter and catchment basin of debris flow formation area's channel mean breadth, make mud-rock flow
Fining early warning it is more accurate.
Influence of the judge index to debris flow formation of a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow, gives fine meter
Index is calculated, forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope including quantitative catchment basin of debris flow, catchment basin of debris flow forms area's form factor and mud-rock flow
Basin formation area area, further improves the fining early warning of mud-rock flow.
Influence of the judge index to debris flow formation of a possibility that generation by studying mud-rock flow, gives fine drop
Rain parameter, including rainfall and preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth of excitation, strengthen the fining early warning of mud-rock flow.
Below with reference to specific example, detailed description of embodiments of the present invention:
In June, 2011 5-6 days Guizhou Province Wangmo County meets with heavy rainfall process, meets within rainfall frequency about 200 years one, wherein beating easily
Town is nearby rainfall center, and total rainfall and maximum hourly rainfall are all maximum.It is had occurred very during current heavy rainfall
More mud-rock flows, but mud-rock flow all has occurred in not all catchment basin of debris flow.There are 20 bar ditch in one of region, shares 15
Mud-rock flow has occurred in bar ditch, and in addition 5 bar ditch do not have mud-rock flow.Using formula of the invention to above-mentioned 20 catchment basin of debris flow
Carry out early warning.
First by the way that the catchment basin of debris flow that topographic map measures each catchment basin of debris flow forms area's area A, catchment basin of debris flow is formed
Area form factor F, catchment basin of debris flow form the long L of area's ditch, catchment basin of debris flow forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope J, field investigation mud-rock flow
Basin formation area channel mean breadth W, catchment basin of debris flow form area's grain diameter D, catchment basin of debris flow is calculated by formula 1
Shape factor T；Pass through prime factor G catchment basin of debris flow is calculated of formula 2；It consults hydrologic manual and obtains catchment basin of debris flow formation area year
Average rainfall R010 minutes coefficient of variation C of area's rainfall are formed with catchment basin of debris flowv, catchment basin of debris flow is obtained according to actual monitoring
It forms the rainfall B of area position and excites preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth I；The drop for inducing mud-rock flow is calculated by formula 3
Rain factor R；The generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated by formula 4 again.
The generation index P of the mud-rock flow of the parameter and calculating of 20 catchment basin of debris flow and mud-rock flow actually occur situation
As shown in table 1；Table 1 is mud-rock flow landform, geology, the rainfall factor and fining early warning value table.
| Number | A(m2) | F | J | D(mm) | W(m) | T | G | R | P | Possibility occurrence | Mud-rock flow |
| 1 | 14000 | 0.573 | 0.449 | 236 | 3.5 | 1.05 | 118 | 2.69 | 0.444 | Greatly | It is |
| 2 | 62000 | 0.714 | 0.22 | 251 | 5.75 | 0.71 | 126 | 2.65 | 0.395 | Greatly | It is |
| 3 | 84000 | 0.753 | 0.36 | 251 | 6.5 | 1.24 | 125 | 2.61 | 0.435 | Greatly | It is |
| 4 | 46000 | 0.305 | 0.438 | 243 | 6.13 | 0.55 | 121 | 2.54 | 0.364 | Greatly | It is |
| 5 | 42000 | 0.444 | 0.585 | 140 | 3.7 | 1.29 | 69.8 | 2.42 | 0.508 | Greatly | It is |
| 6 | 1218000 | 1.163 | 0.137 | 277 | 12.7 | 0.95 | 139 | 2.53 | 0.384 | Greatly | It is |
| 7 | 2257000 | 0.579 | 0.132 | 268 | 13.5 | 0.5 | 134 | 2.63 | 0.356 | Greatly | It is |
| 8 | 1014000 | 0.426 | 0.253 | 276 | 16 | 0.57 | 138 | 2.45 | 0.336 | Greatly | It is |
| 9 | 178000 | 0.626 | 0.487 | 176 | 4.6 | 1.86 | 87.9 | 2.18 | 0.451 | Greatly | It is |
| 10 | 188000 | 0.473 | 0.296 | 181 | 3.9 | 0.92 | 90.5 | 2.25 | 0.4 | Greatly | It is |
| 11 | 276000 | 0.478 | 0.18 | 157 | 3.75 | 0.62 | 78.6 | 2.36 | 0.409 | Greatly | It is |
| 12 | 236000 | 0.388 | 0.16 | 201 | 5.6 | 0.37 | 101 | 2.4 | 0.342 | Greatly | It is |
| 13 | 110000 | 0.434 | 0.556 | 305 | 3.1 | 1.56 | 153 | 2.27 | 0.368 | Greatly | It is |
| 14 | 70000 | 0.308 | 0.503 | 256 | 6.25 | 0.69 | 128 | 2.37 | 0.348 | Greatly | It is |
| 15 | 53000 | 0.531 | 0.666 | 163 | 4.3 | 1.74 | 81.4 | 2.5 | 0.525 | Greatly | It is |
| 16 | 98000 | 0.443 | 0.638 | 521 | 1.77 | 2.24 | 261 | 1.7 | 0.242 | In | It is no |
| 17 | 148000 | 1.294 | 0.62 | 509 | 2.6 | 5.92 | 255 | 1.49 | 0.258 | In | It is no |
| 18 | 67000 | 0.655 | 0.673 | 461 | 2.87 | 2.67 | 231 | 1.31 | 0.201 | It is small | It is no |
| 19 | 41000 | 1.088 | 0.567 | 633 | 5 | 2.71 | 317 | 1.65 | 0.225 | It is small | It is no |
| 20 | 136000 | 0.298 | 0.444 | 368 | 2 | 1.07 | 184 | 1.67 | 0.233 | It is small | It is no |
Table 1
According to fining Alert Standard carry out fining early warning: as P >=0.33, occur mud-rock flow a possibility that it is big；When
When 0.24≤P < 0.33, occur mud-rock flow a possibility that it is medium；As P < 0.24, occur mud-rock flow a possibility that it is small.
As can be seen from Table 1:
Judge mud-rock flow possibility occurrence it is big have 15, all generation mud-rock flow；
Judge mud-rock flow possibility occurrence it is medium have 2, mud-rock flow does not all occur；
Judge mud-rock flow possibility occurrence it is small have 3, mud-rock flow does not all occur.
In conclusion very high using accuracy of the method for the invention to the fining early warning of mud-rock flow.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of mud-rock flow based on rainfall in one hour refines method for early warning, which comprises the following steps:
A, determine the basic parameter of potential catchment basin of debris flow by Google Earth or topographic map: catchment basin of debris flow formed area's area A,
Catchment basin of debris flow forms area's form factor F, catchment basin of debris flow forms the long L of area's ditch and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope J；
B, hydrologic manual is consulted, catchment basin of debris flow is obtained and forms area's average annual rainfall R0Area's rainfall 10 is formed with catchment basin of debris flow
Minute coefficient of variation Cv, real-time monitoring or forecast catchment basin of debris flow form the rainfall B of area position and excite preceding 1 small
When rainfall I；
C, field investigation determines that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth W and catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter D；
D, catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor T is calculated；
T=FJ (A/W2)0.2=JA/L2(A/W2)0.2Formula 1
Wherein, T is catchment basin of debris flow terrain factor；F is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's form factor；L is formed for catchment basin of debris flow
Area's ditch is long, unit m；J is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's ditch bed longitudinal river slope；A is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's area, unit m2；W is
Catchment basin of debris flow forms area's channel mean breadth, unit m；
E, catchment basin of debris flow ground prime factor G is calculated；
G=D/D0Formula 2
Wherein, G for catchment basin of debris flow prime factor；D is that catchment basin of debris flow forms area's grain diameter, refers to form area's bulk solids
The average grain central diameter partial size of material surface, unit mm；D0For coarse granule minimum grain size, D0=2mm；
F, the rainfall factor R for inducing mud-rock flow is calculated；
R=R*/(R0Cv)=(B+12.5I)/(R0Cv) formula 3
Wherein, R is the rainfall factor for inducing mud-rock flow；R* is excitation interception rainfall index, unit mm；B is rainfall, unit
mm；I is to excite preceding 1 hourly rainfall depth, unit mm；R0Area's average annual rainfall, unit mm are formed for catchment basin of debris flow；CvFor mud
10 minutes coefficients of variation of rock glacier basin formation area rainfall；
G, the generation index P of mud-rock flow is calculated；
P=RT0.2/G0.38Formula 4
H, judge the generation of mud-rock flow；
As P < 0.24, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is small；
As 0.24≤P < 0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is medium；
As P >=0.33, mud-rock flow occur a possibility that it is big.
2. a kind of application of mud-rock flow fining method for early warning based on rainfall in one hour according to claim 1, special
Sign is: the fining early warning of the strong seismic region mud-rock flow suitable for single-groove.
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