CN109447495A - Nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method, device and equipment - Google Patents
Nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method, device and equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
This application discloses a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method, device and equipment, method includes: to obtain behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship that organizational behavior is influenced in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model and model analyzed by situational context；The state grade for obtaining behavior formation factor is horizontal；According to default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, the probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed is obtained using state grade level, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, presetting tissue behavior reliability assessment models is the model comprising corresponding relationship between behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level and organizational behavior probability of failure.Namely, the present invention is horizontal using the state grade of behavior formation factor, the probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed is acquired according to default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, it realizes the qualitative assessment to organizational behavior reliability, further provides theoretical and data for organizational error and prevention of risk and support.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Human Factor Research's technical field, in particular to a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method,
Device and equipment.
Background technique
The catastrophic failure investigation occurred in Complex Industrial Systems is it has been shown that organizational error is the root for causing human-equation error
This reason may cause accident, bringing on a disaster property consequence if organizational error is not discovered and corrects.
As the definition of organizational error it is found that as nuclear power plant in complexity-sociotechnical system, due to organizing and being
The complexity of system, it may occur however that various potential organizational errors.In order to identify organizational error to the wind of event and accident
Danger needs the probability to the organizational error that may occur to assess.However, currently being ground to organizational error probability evaluation method of failure
Study carefully very few, is substantially and considers influence of the organizational factor to human factors analysis, but organizational error probability is not estimated quantitatively
Meter, so that more difficult assessment tissue behavior reliability.In consideration of it, providing the method that a kind of pair of organizational error probability is quantitatively evaluated
It is those skilled in the art's urgent problem to be solved.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method, device and
Equipment, the method being quantitatively evaluated for providing a kind of pair of organizational error probability provide data for prevention fault and support.It has
Body scheme is as follows:
In a first aspect, the invention discloses a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation methods, comprising:
Obtain influence group in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model and model analyzed by situational context
Knit the behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship of behavior；
The state grade for obtaining the behavior formation factor is horizontal；
According to default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, organizational behavior to be assessed is obtained using the state grade level
Probability of failure, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default tissue behavior reliability assessment models are to include row
For the model for forming corresponding relationship between factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior.
Optionally, further includes:
Determine the son directly having an impact to organizational behavior reliability in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model
Behavior formation factor；
Determine the conditional probability distribution of the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level；
Determine the probability of failure of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination；
According to the conditional probability distribution, the probability of failure and the default scene undertissue fault Causal model, adopt
Default tissue behavior reliability assessment models are obtained with Bayesian network analysis tools build.
Optionally, the conditional probability distribution of the determination sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level, comprising:
Obtain the default scene undertissue fault Causal model neutron behavior formed the corresponding father's behavior of the factor formed because
Son；
Determine that the state grade of the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is horizontal；
Determine the relative weighting of father's behavior formation factor；
Using the state grade level and the relative weighting, the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions grade is determined
Horizontal conditional probability distribution.
Optionally, the state grade of the determination sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is horizontal,
Include:
The state grade of the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is determined using Triangular Fuzzy Number method
It is horizontal；Wherein, the formula of the Triangular Fuzzy Number method ambiguity solution are as follows:
Wherein, FiIt is horizontal for determining state grade；uiFor the maximum value of fuzzy number；miFor the most probable value of fuzzy number；li
For the minimum value of fuzzy number.
Optionally, the relative weighting of determination father's behavior formation factor, comprising:
The relative weighting of father's behavior formation factor is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
Optionally, described to utilize the state grade level and the relative weighting, determine the sub- behavior formation factor
The conditional probability distribution of different conditions hierarchy level, comprising:
Using the state grade level and the weight, obtaining the sub-line according to default Weighted distance formula is to be formed
The Weighted distance of factor current state hierarchy level and corresponding father's behavior formation factor state grade level；Wherein, described to add
Weigh range formula are as follows:
Wherein, j is the current state hierarchy level of sub- behavior formation factor, j=1,2 ..., n；N is that state grade is horizontal
Number；DijState grade level and the behavior formation factor current state grade water for i-th of father's behavior formation factor
The distance between put down；wiFor the weight of i-th of father's behavior formation factor；DjFor the Weighted distance；
Using the Weighted distance, described sub- behavior formation factor different conditions etc. are obtained according to preset condition new probability formula
The horizontal conditional probability distribution of grade；Wherein, the preset condition new probability formula are as follows:
Wherein, R is default profile exponent；PjFor the conditional probability distribution；E is natural constant.
Optionally, the default profile exponent be the sub-line be to be formed the corresponding all father's behaviors of the factor formed because
The ratio of weight limit and time big weight in all relative weightings of son.
Optionally, corresponding organizational behavior under the determination sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination
Probability of failure, comprising:
Determine the weight of the sub- behavior formation factor；
Determine the different conditions hierarchy level of the sub- behavior formation factor；
Using the weight and the different conditions hierarchy level, obtaining the sub-line according to default calculation formula is to be formed
Comprehensive score under the combination of factor different conditions hierarchy level；Wherein, the default calculation formula are as follows:
Sk=∑ wiFij
Wherein, wiIndicate the weight of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor；FijIndicate the jth kind of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor
State grade is horizontal；SkFor comprehensive score of each sub- behavior formation factor under the combination of kth kind；
Obtain the grade interval of the probability of failure of the organizational behavior divided in advance；
Using the comprehensive score and the grade interval, the sub- behavior formation factor is determined not according to fuzzy logic method
With the probability of failure for corresponding to organizational behavior under state grade horizontal combination.
Second aspect, the invention discloses a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device, device includes:
Behavior formation factor obtains module, for obtaining the default scene undertissue fault analyzed by situational context
The behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship of organizational behavior are influenced in Causal model and model；
Hierarchy level obtains module, and the state grade for obtaining the behavior formation factor is horizontal；
Probability of failure obtains module, for utilizing the state grade according to tissue behavior reliability assessment models are preset
Level obtains the probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default organizational behavior
Reliability Evaluation Model is comprising corresponding between behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior
The model of relationship.
The third aspect, the invention discloses a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment, equipment includes:
Memory, for storing computer program；
Processor realizes aforementioned disclosed nuclear power plant organizational behavior reliability assessment when for executing the computer program
The step of method.
As it can be seen that the present invention obtain first the default scene undertissue analyzed by situational context make mistakes Causal model with
And the behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship of organizational behavior are influenced in model；Obtain the state of the behavior formation factor
Hierarchy level；According to default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, tissue to be assessed is obtained using the state grade level and is gone
For probability of failure, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default tissue behavior reliability assessment models be comprising
The model of corresponding relationship between behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior.That is, this hair
The bright state grade using the behavior formation factor having an impact to organizational behavior reliability is horizontal, can according to default organizational behavior
The probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed is acquired by property assessment models, realizes the qualitative assessment to organizational behavior reliability,
Further theoretical and data are provided for organizational error and prevention of risk to support.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below
There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this
The embodiment of invention for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can also basis
The attached drawing of offer obtains other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method flow chart disclosed by the invention；
Fig. 2 is a kind of schematic diagram of default scene undertissue fault Causal model disclosed by the invention；
Fig. 3 is a kind of building flow chart of default tissue behavior reliability assessment models disclosed by the invention；
Fig. 4 is that a kind of obtain disclosed by the invention presets organizational error Causal model neutron behavior formation factor different conditions
The flow chart of hierarchy level conditional probability distribution；
Fig. 5 is a kind of lower corresponding fault of the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination of determination disclosed by the invention
The flow chart of probability；
Fig. 6 is a kind of specific organizational decision making's fault Causal model schematic diagram disclosed by the invention；
Fig. 7 is a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment apparatus structure schematic diagram disclosed by the invention；
Fig. 8 is a kind of specific nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device hardware structural representation disclosed by the invention
Figure.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In the prior art, very few to the research of organizational error probability evaluation method of failure, it is substantially and considers organizational factor pair
The influence of human factors analysis, but quantitative predication is not carried out to organizational error probability, so that more difficult assessment tissue behavior reliability.
In consideration of it, the present invention is horizontal using the state grade that current behavior forms the factor, mould is assessed according to default tissue behavior reliability
Type obtains the organizational error probability of organizational behavior to be assessed, realizes the qualitative assessment to organizational error probability.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method, shown in Figure 1, this method
Include:
Step S101: the default scene undertissue fault Causal model and model analyzed by situational context are obtained
The middle behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship for influencing organizational behavior；
In the present embodiment, the behavior that organizational behavior is influenced in default scene undertissue fault Causal model and model is obtained
Form the factor and its causal influence relationship.Specifically, the default scene undertissue fault Causal model passes through situational context point
Analysis, constructs to obtain using history organizational behavior and corresponding behavior formation factor.
It is understood that for different organizational behavior, behavior formation factor is different, then forms the mechanism of fault also not
It is identical to the greatest extent.As a result, under the support of a large amount of historical datas, the present embodiment can pass through factor analysis, correlation analysis etc.
Different tissues fault is analyzed the influence relationship between specific behavior formation factor, the fault of identification different tissues with it is each
The mechanism of action between behavior formation factor is further established from complex social-technique system visual angle by scenario analysis default
Scene undertissue fault Causal model, and obtain behavior formation factor and its causal influence that organizational behavior is influenced under default scene
Relationship.It should be pointed out that can be evaluated by analysis expert, and further construct in the case where lacking data.
Referring to shown in Fig. 2, in addition to including the behavior formation factor in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model
Causality between organizational behavior can also include the influence relationship between the behavior formation factor, such as the behavior
Form the pipeline etc. between the factor.
Step S102: the state grade for obtaining the behavior formation factor is horizontal；
It is understood that different states is in the behavior formation factor that organizational behavior reliability has an impact, it is right
The influence degree of organizational behavior is different, to realize to the qualitative assessment of organizational behavior reliability, needs to behavior formation factor
State grade divided.The state grade level is used to characterize the state grade of behavior formation factor, for example, if described
Behavior formation factor is that tissue is exchanged with the level of training, and the mode that corresponding state grade level can use linguistic variable is fuzzy
Indicate, as it is good, in, it is poor, characterization current organization exchange with training level grade；Preferably, corresponding state grade level can
It is horizontal with the fuzzy interval quantitative description state grade indicated using membership function.
Step S103: it according to default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, is obtained using the state grade level to be evaluated
The probability of failure of organizational behavior is estimated, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default tissue behavior reliability assesses mould
Type is the model comprising corresponding relationship between behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior.
It specifically, can according to default organizational behavior after the state grade for getting the behavior formation factor is horizontal
The probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed corresponding with the state grade level is obtained by property assessment models, and then is gone to tissue
It is evaluated for reliability.
In the present embodiment, the default tissue behavior reliability assessment models are to include the behavior formation factor difference shape
The model of corresponding relationship between state hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior.It is understood that getting the behavior
It is formed after factor different conditions hierarchy level, the shape can be searched in the default tissue behavior reliability assessment models
State hierarchy level further obtains corresponding probability of failure, provides data support for the prevention of organizational error.
As it can be seen that the present invention obtain first the default scene undertissue analyzed by situational context make mistakes Causal model with
And the behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship of organizational behavior are influenced in model；Obtain the state of the behavior formation factor
Hierarchy level；According to default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, tissue to be assessed is obtained using the state grade level and is gone
For probability of failure, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default tissue behavior reliability assessment models be comprising
The model of corresponding relationship between behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior.That is, this hair
The bright state grade using the behavior formation factor having an impact to organizational behavior reliability is horizontal, can according to default organizational behavior
The probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed is acquired by property assessment models, realizes the qualitative assessment to organizational behavior reliability,
Further theoretical and data are provided for organizational error and prevention of risk to support.
In the another embodiment of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method provided by the embodiment of the present invention,
It is further elaborated on for the building process of default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, as shown in figure 3, the process packet
It includes:
Step S201: it determines and directly organizational behavior reliability is generated in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model
The sub- behavior formation factor influenced；
It should be noted that including the behavior formation factor and group in the default situation undertissue fault Causal model
Knit the influence relationship of behavior.In the present embodiment, by identifying influence relationship, determination directly has an impact organizational behavior reliability
Sub- behavior formation factor.
Step S202: the conditional probability distribution of the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level is determined；
In the present embodiment, obtains the default scene undertissue fault Causal model neutron behavior and form factor different conditions
The conditional probability distribution of hierarchy level, influence of the quantificational expression father behavior formation factor to sub- behavior formation factor.
Step S203: the mistake of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination is determined
Accidentally probability；
It is understood that since the behavior formation factor having an impact to organizational behavior reliability is in different states
When, different to the influence degree of organizational behavior, the present embodiment further determines that described sub- behavior formation factor different conditions etc.
The probability of failure of corresponding organizational behavior under grade horizontal combination.
Step S204: according to the conditional probability distribution, the probability of failure and default scene undertissue fault because
Fruit model obtains default tissue behavior reliability assessment models using Bayesian network analysis tools build.
In the present embodiment, it is based on the default scene undertissue fault Causal model of above-mentioned steps building and the sub-line
The conditional probability distribution of factor different conditions hierarchy level, the probability of failure of organizational behavior are formed, using Bayesian network analysis
Tools build obtains default tissue behavior reliability assessment models.
In the another embodiment of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method provided by the embodiment of the present invention,
For above-mentioned steps S202 determine the process of the conditional probability distribution of the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level into
Row is further elaborated on, as shown in figure 4, the process includes:
Step S2021: it obtains the default scene undertissue fault Causal model neutron behavior and forms the corresponding father of the factor
Behavior formation factor；
In the present embodiment, by identifying in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model between behavior formation factor
Influence relationship is acquired and is directly formed to the corresponding father's behavior of sub- behavior formation factor that organizational behavior reliability has an impact
The factor.
It is understood that comprising between the behavior formation factor in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model
Influence relationship, each behavior formation factor can be the sub- behavior formation factor for directly affecting organizational behavior reliability；
Or sub- behavior formation factor is impacted, further influence father's behavior formation factor of organizational behavior reliability；
Certainly, the behavior formation factor can also be simultaneously sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor, for directly affecting
Organizational behavior reliability simultaneously influences sub- behavior formation factor simultaneously.
Step S2022: determine that the state grade of the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is horizontal；
In the present embodiment, the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor are determined using Triangular Fuzzy Number method
State grade it is horizontal；Wherein, the formula of the Triangular Fuzzy Number method ambiguity solution are as follows:
Wherein, FiIt is horizontal for determining state grade；uiFor the maximum value of fuzzy number；miFor the most probable value of fuzzy number；li
For the minimum value of fuzzy number.
It is understood that the state grade of above-mentioned the determination sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor
Level can also by other means, as Trapezoid Fuzzy Number method determines.
Step S2023: the relative weighting of father's behavior formation factor is determined；
In the present embodiment, the relative weighting of father's behavior formation factor is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
Specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) includes:
Establish hierarchy Model: by the in-depth analysis to actual tissue behavior, the behavior for specifying organizational behavior is formed
The factor is decomposed into several levels with membership according to influencing each other for behavior formation factor from top to down, is constituted
One orderly hierarchy Model.
Construction compares judgment matrix in pairs: giving to the relative importance of each layer of behavior formation factor in hierarchy Model
Predetermined amount indicates.For belonging to or influencing each factor of same layer of upper one layer of factor, different behavior formation factors are carried out two-by-two
After comparing, using pairs of relatively with 1-9 scaling law, quantity scale is given to the comparation and assessment of different situations, forms judgment matrix.
It calculates weight vector and simultaneously does consistency check: for each judgment matrix, calculating its Maximum characteristic root and corresponding
Feature vector, using coincident indicator, Aver-age Random Consistency Index and random consistency ratio do consistency check.When random
When consistency ration CR≤0.10, judgment matrix just has satisfied consistency, and then determines the opposite power of behavior formation factor
Weight needs to be adjusted judgment matrix if not having satisfied consistency.
Coincident indicator:
Wherein, CI is the coincident indicator of judgment matrix；λmaxIndicate judgment matrix Maximum characteristic root, n expression in contrast with
Compared with the number of the factor.
Random consistency ratio:
Wherein, RI indicates Aver-age Random Consistency Index, and specific value is as shown in table 1.
Table 1
| Order | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| RI | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 |
For having the judgment matrix M of satisfied consistency, can be calculated by following weight calculation formula.
MW=λmaxW
Wherein: M indicates the n × n rank judgment matrix M for the consistent property for having satisfiedn×n；W indicate have i (i=1,
2 ..., the n) feature vector of a component, W=(w1,w2,...,wn)T。
It calculates right vector and does combination consistency check: being weighed by the way that each layer behavior formation factor of COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING is opposite
Value obtains root node and forms the synthetic weights of the factor (lowermost layer) relative to the relative importance of organizational behavior reliability (top)
Value, and in this, as the foundation of evaluation and selection scheme.Similarly, this process is also required to carry out consistency check.
Step S2024: the state grade level and the relative weighting are utilized, determines the sub- behavior formation factor not
With the conditional probability distribution of state grade level.
In the present embodiment, using the state grade level and the weight, the sub- behavior formation factor is acquired
The conditional probability distribution of different conditions hierarchy level.Specifically, the acquisition process of the conditional probability distribution is as follows:
Using the state grade level and the weight, obtaining the sub-line according to default Weighted distance formula is to be formed
The Weighted distance of factor current state hierarchy level and corresponding father's behavior formation factor state grade level；Wherein, described to add
Weigh range formula are as follows:
Wherein, j is the current state hierarchy level of sub- behavior formation factor, j=1,2 ..., n；N is that state grade is horizontal
Number；DijFor the state grade level and the sub- behavior formation factor current state grade of i-th of father's behavior formation factor
The distance between level；wiFor the weight of i-th of father's behavior formation factor；DjFor the Weighted distance.
It is understood that when known father's behavior formation factor is in particular state, determine corresponding sub-line be formed because
Son is in the probability of some state grade level, if the state grade level of sub- behavior formation factor undetermined differs markedly from
Or keep off his father's behavior formation factor state grade it is horizontal, then the sub- behavior formation factor state in which hierarchy level with
Other are compared close or equal to the state of his father's behavior formation factor, and probability should take smaller.For example, being directed to the behavior of operator
Formed the factor " knowledge experience horizontal " three different conditions hierarchy levels " good ", " in ", for " poor ", if " knowledge experience water
It is flat " two father's behavior formation factors " training " and " exchanges and cooperation " all in the state of " good ", then sub- behavior formation factor
The probability that " knowledge experience horizontal " be in " good " state grade be greater than and be in " in " and " poor " probability.The present invention is real as a result,
Example is applied to consider using between the state grade level of sub- behavior formation factor and the state grade level of father's behavior formation factor
The absolute value of Weighted distance distributes the probability that the sub- behavior formation factor is in different conditions hierarchy level.
Further, using the Weighted distance, the sub- behavior formation factor is obtained according to preset condition new probability formula
The conditional probability distribution of different conditions hierarchy level；Wherein, the preset condition new probability formula are as follows:
Wherein, R is default profile exponent；PjFor the conditional probability distribution；E is natural constant.
It is understood that moleculeDetermine that the sub- behavior formation factor is in the probability of different conditions hierarchy level
Distribution, denominator is for normalizing, so that n PjSum sum to 1.Its distribution of results situation is referred to by distribution predetermined
Number R (Distribution index) is controlled.If fixed higher of R index, sub- behavior formation factor be in far from it
The probability of some state grade of the state grade level of father's behavior formation factor is lower.This means that if analysis personnel assignment
One high R index value, then it represents that sub- behavior formation factor is in the state grade water of father's behavior formation factor far from it
One low probability of some flat state grade.
Preferably, the default profile exponent be the sub-line be to be formed the corresponding all father's behaviors of the factor formed because
The ratio of weight limit and time big weight in all relative weightings of son.
In the another embodiment of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method provided by the embodiment of the present invention,
The mistake of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination is determined for above-mentioned steps S203
Accidentally the process of probability is further elaborated on, as shown in figure 5, the process includes:
Step S2031: the weight of the sub- behavior formation factor is determined；
Specifically, the present embodiment determines the weight of the sub- behavior formation factor using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).About the layer
The specific steps of fractional analysis can refer to previous embodiment disclosure, no longer be repeated herein.
Step S2032: the different conditions hierarchy level of the sub- behavior formation factor is determined；
In the present embodiment, the shape of the sub- behavior formation factor is determined using Triangular Fuzzy Number method or Trapezoid Fuzzy Number method
State hierarchy level.
Step S2033: utilizing the weight and the different conditions hierarchy level, is obtained according to default calculation formula described
Comprehensive score under sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination；Wherein, the default calculation formula are as follows:
Sk=∑ wiFij
Wherein, wiIndicate the weight of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor；FijIndicate the jth kind of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor
State grade is horizontal；SkFor comprehensive score of each sub- behavior formation factor under the combination of kth kind；
It should be noted that the weight of different sub- behavior formation factors is different, the assignment of different conditions hierarchy level
Also different, therefore, the present embodiment is based on default calculation formula, utilizes the weight of the sub- behavior formation factor and different conditions etc.
Grade is horizontal, determines corresponding comprehensive score.
Step S2034: the grade interval of the probability of failure of the organizational behavior divided in advance is obtained；
It should be noted that the present embodiment carries out the division of grade interval to the probability of failure of the organizational behavior in advance.
It specifically can use numerical value of the intersecting point coordinate as grade interval of adjacent rank.For example, with reference to shown in table 2, table 2 is this implementation
Example carries out the result of grade interval division to the probability of failure.
Table 2
Step S2035: using the comprehensive score and the grade interval, determine that the sub-line is according to fuzzy logic method
Form the probability of failure of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of factor different conditions hierarchy level combination.
In the present embodiment, by the analysis of the division result to the comprehensive score and the grade interval, according to fuzzy
Logical approach determines reflecting for the corresponding sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level of the comprehensive score and the probability of failure
Penetrate relationship.
Analysis of cases is carried out as research object with " nuclear power plant's digitlization master control room organizational decision making fault under emergency conditions ".
Under severe accident conditions (such as superposition accident), not ready-made regulation instructs the accident handling of operator, therefore, at this
Under part, organizational member need according to itself knowledge, experience come to how to dispose accident carry out decision.It in the process may hair
Raw incorrect decision.Organizational decision making is influenced by the quality and ability of the individual of policymaker first, secondly by the knowledge and warp of team
It tests, the exchange of team, the influence of Cooperation And Coordination；Furthermore by the complexity of task (seriousness of event), pot life, whether
There is the stress level of the influences such as the guidance of decision-making process operation tissue；In addition, being influenced by organizational aspects, such as organizational culture, group
Knit coordination etc..It is discussed through operator's interview and expert group, organizational decision making's fault Causal model of foundation is as shown in Figure 6.It can by Fig. 6
Know, the knowledge and experience of tissue is influenced by the training of the exchanges and cooperation, tissue organized, and whether the stress level of tissue is had
Decision-making process guidance, the pot life of decision, the complexity of task and the influence of knowledge and experience of tissue etc..It needs to illustrate
, the stress level of tissue is also possible to the ability organized and attitude, tissue support level, system information presentation level etc.
It influences.But in order to which simplified or its influence is less, the present embodiment does not consider that presentation level of system information etc. also can be to tissue
Pressure affects.
Firstly, the relative weighting of the behavior formation factor using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) identification organizational decision making's reliability.For example, needle
To " knowledge and experience of tissue ", they are by " organizing training is horizontal ", " exchanges and cooperation of tissue are horizontal " and " pressure of tissue
The influence of power level ", then can be shown in Table 3 by expert judgments come development of judgment matrix.
Table 3 influences the behavior formation factor comparison result two-by-two of mental model
Then, it calculatesCR=0≤0.10 has satisfied consistency.
Next, must be trained finally according to weight calculation formula disclosed above horizontal, tissue exchanges and cooperation level
Relative weighting is respectively as follows: 0.5,0.25,0.25.4 are shown in Table eventually by the relative weighting for each behavior formation factor for calculating identification
It is shown.
Table 4 influences the relative weighting of each behavior formation factor of teams and groups' decision
Further, for selection Fig. 6 child nodes " knowledge and experience (TKE) of tissue ", it is assumed that its father node " training
(TR) ", " Cooperation with exchange (TE) " and " stress level (TS) of tissue " be respectively at " good (a) ", " in (b) " and " it is poor/
It is high ", then there are TR=a, TE=b and TS=c.At this point, considering " knowledge and experience (TKE) of tissue " weighting in different states
Distance, it is assumed that the case where that consider at first is TKE=a, i.e. j=a, then the distance of a to a is separated by 0 shape when considering TR=a
State, therefore, Daa=0.Equally, when TE=b, the distance of b to a is separated by 1 state, therefore, Dba=-1.When TS=c, c to a's
Distance is separated by 2 states, therefore, Dca=-2.According to table 4 obtained " train horizontal (TR) ", " Cooperation with exchange
(TE) " and the weight of " stress level (TS) of tissue " is respectively wTR=0.5, wTE=0.25, wTS=0.25, its weighting can be obtained
Distance is Da=| 0.5 × 0+0.25 × (- 1)+0.25 × (- 2) |=0.75.It is public also according to Weighted distance disclosed above
D can be calculated in formulab=| 0.5 × 1+0.25 × 0+0.25 × (- 1) |=0.25, Dc=| 0.5 × 2+0.25 × 1+0.25 × 0
|=1.25.Similarly, it can get the Weighted distance of other intermediate variable behavior formation factors, details are not described herein.
Specifically, the result of study of R index value is determined based on pervious analog machine experimental study, it can be seen that father node
Relative weighting between behavior formation factor is bigger, then R value is just big, substantially corresponds to the ratio of their weights, therefore, this
Embodiment calculates to reduce in the uncertainty for determining R index value in order to simplify, we all take father node behavior formation factor it
Between compared to the biggish ratio of weight as our R value, it may be assumed that
Formula is determined according to above-mentioned R value, is obtained each intermediate behavior and is formed the corresponding R value of the factor, is shown in Table 5.It needs
Illustrate, the present embodiment main purpose is the method for illustrating the present embodiment and being established, rather than is pursued very perfect and accurate
Probability of failure value, this needs a large amount of data collection and largely tests to confirm or verify.
The profile exponent R value that table 5 is determined according to the relative weighting of father node behavior formation factor
Further, the present embodiment determines the probability distribution of intermediate behavior formation factor according to calculated R value.Than
Such as: being in " good " for father node " training is horizontal ", " exchanges and cooperation are horizontal " is in " good ", and " organizational stress is horizontal " is in
" low ".In this scenario, then child node " knowledge and experience of tissue " be in different conditions horizontal " good ", " in ", the item of " poor "
Part probability distribution.First determine his father's node state at a distance from child status respectively using Weighted distance formula are as follows:
Father node " training is horizontal " is in the state of " good " and child node " knowledge and experience of tissue " is in " good " state
Distance Daa=0；Father node " exchanges and cooperation " is in the state of " good " and child node " knowledge and experience of tissue " is in
The distance D of " good " stateaa=0；Father node " organizational stress is horizontal " is in the state and the child node " knowledge and warp of tissue of " good "
Test " it is in the distance D of " good " stateaa=0；And his father's node weights are respectively as follows: wTR=0.5, wTE=0.25, wTS=0.25, it can
Obtaining its Weighted distance is Da=| 0.5 × 0+0.25 × 0+0.25 × 0 |=0.It equally can be calculated, Db=| 0.5 × 1+0.25 × 1
+ 0.25 × 1 |=1.0, Dc=| 0.5 × 2+0.25 × 2+0.25 × 2 |=2.0.Then R=2 is substituted into disclosed above preset
Condition probability formula can obtain:
It is respectively 0.87,0.12 and 0.01 so as to obtain its conditional probability distribution.
Similarly, the horizontal different combinations of three father node state grades can be obtained so that child node behavior formation factor is in not
With the conditional probability distribution of state.
Similarly, the conditional probability distribution of other intermediate variable behavior formation factors can be obtained, details are not described herein.
Nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device provided in an embodiment of the present invention is introduced below, is described below
Nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device can be mutual with above-described nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method
To should refer to.
Fig. 7 is the structural block diagram of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device provided by the embodiment of the present invention, reference
Shown in Fig. 7, nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device may include:
Behavior formation factor obtains module 100, for obtaining the default scene undertissue analyzed by situational context
The behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship of organizational behavior are influenced in fault Causal model and model；
Hierarchy level obtains module 200, and the state grade for obtaining the behavior formation factor is horizontal；
Probability of failure obtains module 300, for utilizing described state etc. according to tissue behavior reliability assessment models are preset
The horizontal probability of failure for obtaining organizational behavior to be assessed of grade, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default tissue row
It is comprising right between behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior for Reliability Evaluation Model
The model that should be related to.
Nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device of the present embodiment can for realizing nuclear power plant's organizational behavior above-mentioned
The visible nuclear power hereinbefore of specific embodiment by property appraisal procedure, therefore in nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device
The embodiment part of factory's organizational behavior reliability estimation method, is no longer repeated herein.
Further, the embodiment of the invention also discloses a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment, the nuclear powers
Factory's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment includes processor 11 and memory 12, wherein the processor 11 executes the storage
It is performed the steps of when the computer program saved in device 12
Obtain influence group in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model and model analyzed by situational context
Knit the behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship of behavior；The state grade for obtaining the behavior formation factor is horizontal；According to
Default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, the probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed is obtained using the state grade level,
To assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default tissue behavior reliability assessment models are to include behavior formation factor
The model of corresponding relationship between different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior.
In the present embodiment, when the processor 11 executes the computer subprogram saved in the memory 12, can have
Body, which performs the steps of, to be determined in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model directly to organizational behavior reliability generation shadow
Loud sub- behavior formation factor；Determine the conditional probability distribution of the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level；It determines
The probability of failure of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination；It is general according to the condition
Rate, the probability of failure and the default scene undertissue fault Causal model, are obtained using Bayesian network analysis tools build
To default tissue behavior reliability assessment models.
In the present embodiment, when the processor 11 executes the computer subprogram saved in the memory 12, can have
Body, which performs the steps of, obtains the default scene undertissue fault Causal model neutron behavior formation corresponding father's behavior of the factor
Form the factor；Determine that the state grade of the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is horizontal；Determine the father
The relative weighting of behavior formation factor；Using the state grade level and the relative weighting, determine that the sub-line is to be formed
The conditional probability distribution of factor different conditions hierarchy level.
In the present embodiment, when the processor 11 executes the computer subprogram saved in the memory 12, can have
Body performs the steps of the shape that the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor are determined using Triangular Fuzzy Number method
State hierarchy level；Wherein, the formula of the Triangular Fuzzy Number method ambiguity solution are as follows:
Wherein, FiIt is horizontal for determining state grade；uiFor the maximum value of fuzzy number；miFor the most probable value of fuzzy number；li
For the minimum value of fuzzy number.
In the present embodiment, when the processor 11 executes the computer subprogram saved in the memory 12, can have
Body performs the steps of the relative weighting that father's behavior formation factor is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
In the present embodiment, when the processor 11 executes the computer subprogram saved in the memory 12, can have
Body is performed the steps of using the state grade level and the weight, obtains the son according to default Weighted distance formula
The Weighted distance of behavior formation factor current state hierarchy level and corresponding father's behavior formation factor state grade level；Its
In, the Weighted distance formula are as follows:
Wherein, j is the current state hierarchy level of sub- behavior formation factor, j=1,2 ..., n；N is that state grade is horizontal
Number；DijState grade level and the behavior formation factor current state grade water for i-th of father's behavior formation factor
The distance between put down；wiFor the weight of i-th of father's behavior formation factor；DjFor the Weighted distance；
Using the Weighted distance, described sub- behavior formation factor different conditions etc. are obtained according to preset condition new probability formula
The horizontal conditional probability distribution of grade；Wherein, the preset condition new probability formula are as follows:
Wherein, R is default profile exponent；PjFor the conditional probability distribution；E is natural constant.
In the present embodiment, when the processor 11 executes the computer subprogram saved in the memory 12, can have
Body performs the steps of the weight for determining the sub- behavior formation factor；Determine the different conditions of the sub- behavior formation factor
Hierarchy level；Using the weight and the different conditions hierarchy level, obtaining the sub-line according to default calculation formula is shape
At the comprehensive score under the combination of factor different conditions hierarchy level；Wherein, the default calculation formula are as follows:
Sk=∑ wiFij
Wherein, wiIndicate the weight of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor；FijIndicate the jth kind of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor
State grade is horizontal；SkFor comprehensive score of each sub- behavior formation factor under the combination of kth kind；Obtain the institute divided in advance
State the grade interval of the probability of failure of organizational behavior；Using the comprehensive score and the grade interval, according to fuzzy logic method
Determine the probability of failure of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination.
Further, shown in Figure 8, nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment in the present embodiment can be with
Include:
Input interface 13, for obtaining the computer program of extraneous importing, and the computer program that will acquire save to
In the memory 12, it can be also used for the various instructions and parameter that obtain extraneous terminal device transmission, and be transmitted to processor
In 11, so that processor 11 is handled accordingly using above-mentioned various instructions and parametric evolving.In the present embodiment, the input interface
13, which can specifically include but be not limited to USB interface, serial line interface, speech input interface, fingerprint input interface, hard disk, reads interface
Deng.
Output interface 14, the various data for generating processor 11 are exported to coupled terminal device, so as to
The various data of the generation of processor 11 can be got in other terminal devices being connected with output interface 14.In the present embodiment,
The output interface 14 can specifically include but be not limited to USB interface, serial line interface etc..
In some embodiments, nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment can also include communication unit 15, be used for
Establish telecommunication connection between external server, obtain the data that extraneous terminal is sent, be then forwarded to processor 11 into
Row processing analysis, in addition, processor 11 can also by the various results obtained after processing by communication unit 15 be sent to it is default
Various data receivers.In the present embodiment, the communication technology used by above-mentioned communication unit 15 can be cable communicating technology
Or wireless communication technique, such as universal serial bus (USB), adopting wireless fidelity technology (WiFi), Bluetooth Communication Technology, low-power consumption bluetooth
Communication technology (BLE) etc..In addition, communication unit 15 specifically can be according to wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA), long term evolution (LTE)
With the cellular radio transceiver of similar standard operation.
In some embodiments, nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment can also include display unit 16, be used for
The data sended over to processor 11 are shown.
In some embodiments, nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment can also include keyboard 17, for obtaining
The various parameters data or instruction that user is inputted and tapping keycap in real time.
In some embodiments, nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment can also include mouse 18, for assisting
User input data and the operation for simplifying user.
Further, the embodiment of the invention also discloses a kind of computer readable storage mediums, for storing computer journey
Sequence, wherein the computer program realizes organizational behavior reliability assessment side, aforementioned disclosed nuclear power plant when being executed by processor
The step of method, the specific steps about this method can no longer carry out herein with reference to corresponding contents disclosed in previous embodiment
It repeats.
The present invention utilizes the state grade for the behavior formation factor having an impact to organizational behavior reliability horizontal, according to pre-
If organizational behavior Reliability Evaluation Model acquires the probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed, realize to organizational behavior reliability
Qualitative assessment, further provide theoretical and data for organizational error and prevention of risk and support.
Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, the highlights of each of the examples are with it is other
The difference of embodiment, same or similar part may refer to each other between each embodiment.For being filled disclosed in embodiment
For setting, since it is corresponded to the methods disclosed in the examples, so being described relatively simple, related place is referring to method part
Explanation.
Professional further appreciates that, unit described in conjunction with the examples disclosed in the embodiments of the present disclosure
And algorithm steps, can be realized with electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of the two, in order to clearly demonstrate hardware and
The interchangeability of software generally describes each exemplary composition and step according to function in the above description.These
Function is implemented in hardware or software actually, the specific application and design constraint depending on technical solution.Profession
Technical staff can use different methods to achieve the described function each specific application, but this realization is not answered
Think beyond the scope of this invention.
The step of method described in conjunction with the examples disclosed in this document or algorithm, can directly be held with hardware, processor
The combination of capable software module or the two is implemented.Software module can be placed in random access memory (RAM), memory, read-only deposit
Reservoir (ROM), electrically programmable ROM, electrically erasable ROM, register, hard disk, moveable magnetic disc, CD-ROM or technology
In any other form of storage medium well known in field.
Above to nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method, device, equipment and storage medium provided by the present invention
It is described in detail, used herein a specific example illustrates the principle and implementation of the invention, the above reality
The explanation for applying example is merely used to help understand method and its core concept of the invention；Meanwhile for the general technology of this field
Personnel, according to the thought of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation manner and application range, in conclusion this theory
Bright book content should not be construed as limiting the invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method characterized by comprising
Obtaining in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model and model analyzed by situational context influences tissue row
For behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship；
The state grade for obtaining the behavior formation factor is horizontal；
According to default tissue behavior reliability assessment models, the mistake of organizational behavior to be assessed is obtained using the state grade level
Accidentally probability, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default tissue behavior reliability assessment models are to include behavior shape
At the model of corresponding relationship between factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior.
2. nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that further include:
Determine that the sub-line directly having an impact to organizational behavior reliability in the default scene undertissue fault Causal model is
Form the factor；
Determine the conditional probability distribution of the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level；
Determine the probability of failure of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination；
According to the conditional probability distribution, the probability of failure and the default scene undertissue fault Causal model, using shellfish
This network analysis tools build of leaf obtains default tissue behavior reliability assessment models.
3. nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that described in the determination
The conditional probability distribution of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level, comprising:
It obtains the default scene undertissue fault Causal model neutron behavior and forms the corresponding father's behavior formation factor of the factor；
Determine that the state grade of the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is horizontal；
Determine the relative weighting of father's behavior formation factor；
Using the state grade level and the relative weighting, the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level is determined
Conditional probability distribution.
4. nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that described in the determination
The state grade of sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is horizontal, comprising:
Determine that the state grade of the sub- behavior formation factor and father's behavior formation factor is horizontal using Triangular Fuzzy Number method；
Wherein, the formula of the Triangular Fuzzy Number method ambiguity solution are as follows:
Wherein, FiIt is horizontal for determining state grade；uiFor the maximum value of fuzzy number；miFor the most probable value of fuzzy number；liFor mould
Paste the minimum value of number.
5. nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that described in the determination
The relative weighting of father's behavior formation factor, comprising:
The relative weighting of father's behavior formation factor is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
6. nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that described in the utilization
State grade level and the relative weighting determine the conditional probability point of the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level
Cloth, comprising:
Using the state grade level and the weight, the sub- behavior formation factor is obtained according to default Weighted distance formula
The Weighted distance of current state hierarchy level and corresponding father's behavior formation factor state grade level；Wherein, it is described weighting away from
From formula are as follows:
Wherein, j is the current state hierarchy level of sub- behavior formation factor, j=1,2 ..., n；N is horizontal of state grade
Number；DijFor i-th of father's behavior formation factor state grade level and the behavior formation factor current state hierarchy level it
Between distance；wiFor the weight of i-th of father's behavior formation factor；DjFor the Weighted distance；
Using the Weighted distance, the sub- behavior formation factor different conditions grade water is obtained according to preset condition new probability formula
Flat conditional probability distribution；Wherein, the preset condition new probability formula are as follows:
Wherein, R is default profile exponent；PjFor the conditional probability distribution；E is natural constant.
7. nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation method according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the default distribution
Index is that the sub-line is maximum in all relative weightings for be formed the corresponding all father's behavior formation factors of the factor
The ratio of weight and time big weight.
8. according to the described in any item nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability estimation methods of claim 2 to 7, which is characterized in that institute
State the probability of failure for determining the lower corresponding organizational behavior of sub- behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level combination, comprising:
Determine the weight of the sub- behavior formation factor；
Determine the different conditions hierarchy level of the sub- behavior formation factor；
Using the weight and the different conditions hierarchy level, the sub- behavior formation factor is obtained according to default calculation formula
Comprehensive score under the combination of different conditions hierarchy level；Wherein, the default calculation formula are as follows:
Sk=∑ wiFij
Wherein, wiIndicate the weight of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor；FijIndicate the jth kind state of i-th of sub- behavior formation factor
Hierarchy level；SkFor comprehensive score of each sub- behavior formation factor under the combination of kth kind；
Obtain the grade interval of the probability of failure of the organizational behavior divided in advance；
Using the comprehensive score and the grade interval, the sub- behavior formation factor difference shape is determined according to fuzzy logic method
The probability of failure of the lower corresponding organizational behavior of state hierarchy level combination.
9. a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment device characterized by comprising
Behavior formation factor obtains module, for obtaining the default scene undertissue fault cause and effect analyzed by situational context
The behavior formation factor and its causal influence relationship of organizational behavior are influenced in model and model；
Hierarchy level obtains module, and the state grade for obtaining the behavior formation factor is horizontal；
Probability of failure obtains module, for utilizing the state grade level according to tissue behavior reliability assessment models are preset
The probability of failure of organizational behavior to be assessed is obtained, to assess the reliability of organizational behavior；Wherein, the default organizational behavior is reliable
Property assessment models be include corresponding relationship between behavior formation factor different conditions hierarchy level and the probability of failure of organizational behavior
Model.
10. a kind of nuclear power plant's organizational behavior reliability assessment equipment characterized by comprising
Memory, for storing computer program；
Processor realizes nuclear power plant's organizational behavior as described in any one of claim 1 to 8 when for executing the computer program
The step of reliability estimation method.
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